mdlp

To me the best bet moving forward is to bet both men's underdogs in the semis.  Hurkacz is about 2:1 and is playing well enough to make it worth it.
 
Now my favorite bet is Shapovalov to beat Djok at 7:1.  Why?  Well Djok hasn't been tested yet and if you watch carefully his favorite neutralizing shot is the 2-handed cross-court backhand which against a lefty isn't going to work because it falls straight to the forehand!  Shapo has an incredible forehand and while his backhand is a one-hander if he is on point he can fire back some rockets and really make it happen.  Of course I think Djok will win but 7:1 justifies this as a reasonable +EV bet in my mind.
 
Thoughts?
 
MDLP

Me too!  But as far as betting goes would you lay 2.5:1?  I wouldn't.  The likely result is berretini v novak in the final and it's very easy to say that and be right often.  But the value isn't on betting those guys is it?
 
MDLP

To me the best bet moving forward is to bet both men's underdogs in the semis.  Hurkacz is about 2:1 and is playing well enough to make it worth it.
 
Now my favorite bet is Shapovalov to beat Djok at 7:1.  Why?  Well Djok hasn't been tested yet and if you watch carefully his favorite neutralizing shot is the 2-handed cross-court backhand which against a lefty isn't going to work because it falls straight to the forehand!  Shapo has an incredible forehand and while his backhand is a one-hander if he is on point he can fire back some rockets and really make it happen.  Of course I think Djok will win but 7:1 justifies this as a reasonable +EV bet in my mind.
 
Thoughts?
 
MDLP

Just want to note a few things.  I find it strange how I am such a winning player but when I post a pick online it is very often a loser.  Random but weird lol. I really struggled during the first 2 rounds (as is often the case) then I just killed it in rounds leading to now.  So much to learn.  But this forum is the best one I know of and I really enjoy the comments.
 
By the way @liquidglass really enjoying reading the profundity of your comments.  Very deep and intellectual and I have long yearned for a forum where the intellect rises up and we can debate to a point of converging on success.
 
So tired, cannot wait for this to be over and sleep a few days well before Ostrava!
 
MDLP

Just want to note a few things.  I find it strange how I am such a winning player but when I post a pick online it is very often a loser.  Random but weird lol. I really struggled during the first 2 rounds (as is often the case) then I just killed it in rounds leading to now.  So much to learn.  But this forum is the best one I know of and I really enjoy the comments.
 
By the way @liquidglass really enjoying reading the profundity of your comments.  Very deep and intellectual and I have long yearned for a forum where the intellect rises up and we can debate to a point of converging on success.
 
So tired, cannot wait for this to be over and sleep a few days well before Ostrava!
 
MDLP

I think siniakova at +148 has to be good against sabalenka who was lucky to slip past a weaker blinkova yesterday. Siniakova really impressed me in her last match and against kerber in rome and i think she wins today.

Do you guys know any good blogs or websites that discuss upcoming matches? I've been reading lastwordontennis.com and enjoy it but wondered if anything else was out there.
As far as forums go I find only this one to be useful. Any others?
Czechpunter hang in there man things always turn around if you make good bets!
Thanks in advance!
mdlp

i agree about marketa and im in big on her at +143 bookmaker. The type of forehand that she hits is going to make it very difficult for Plíšková especially the wide angles. Pliskova succeeds when you put the ball right on her forehand and don't make her move a lot but that will not be the case today and that is what the market doesn't realize. Mertens just doesn't have the correct style like marketa does.

i agree about marketa and im in big on her at +143 bookmaker. The type of forehand that she hits is going to make it very difficult for Plíšková especially the wide angles. Pliskova succeeds when you put the ball right on her forehand and don't make her move a lot but that will not be the case today and that is what the market doesn't realize. Mertens just doesn't have the correct style like marketa does.

i agree about marketa and im in big on her at +143 bookmaker. The type of forehand that she hits is going to make it very difficult for Plíšková especially the wide angles. Pliskova succeeds when you put the ball right on her forehand and don't make her move a lot but that will not be the case today and that is what the market doesn't realize. Mertens just doesn't have the correct style like marketa does.

I think the transition from hard court + the US OPEN hangover has created a strange dynamic which requires watching all the matches without betting them.  To truly be a talented handicapper and bettor I think this is paramount at this time.  
MDLP

Kerber had more errors than usual but she didn't play horrific tennis.  What really happened is that Siniakova played like she used to back in 2017 and was lights out.  Very unexpected but this is tennis!

A few matches I think have to be value bets on the clay tomorrow in Rome(all prices here are on bookmaker and using american odds):
1-Sevastova -230 over Paolini:  Sevastova has come into form lately while Paolini keeps losing to everyone she plays.  Paolini actually knocked off Kasatkina in Palermo a month ago (by the way who hasn't beaten kasatina lately??) so I started watching her a lot w hope.  Regardless, she kept letting me down.  I see no way Sevastova loses this and would even grab the game spread here.
2-Kerber -215 over Siniakova.  Siniakova should be playing challengers and Kerber is playing well and has a style that loves clay and long rallies.  This is pretty much a guarantee win.  Game spread of -4 is amazing EV too.
3-Bouzkova over Tomljanovic at -115.  Yes I know that Tomljanovic beat her a year ago but times have changed.  Tomljanovic isn't playing very well while Bouzkova is really looking great.  Go watch her recent match w Pegula (pegula barely won) at the US open.  Bouzkova fought hard and did very well.  She just loves longer rallies and can stay in the point forever while Toml cannot.
 
Any thoughts about these 3 or any others would be greatly appreciated.  I have posted a few overconfident winners on this site and for that I apologize.  You would never guess that I am actually a very winning bettor who made a ton on Cincy and the US open LOL.
 
Thanks!
 
mdlp

A few matches I think have to be value bets on the clay tomorrow in Rome(all prices here are on bookmaker and using american odds):
1-Sevastova -230 over Paolini:  Sevastova has come into form lately while Paolini keeps losing to everyone she plays.  Paolini actually knocked off Kasatkina in Palermo a month ago (by the way who hasn't beaten kasatina lately??) so I started watching her a lot w hope.  Regardless, she kept letting me down.  I see no way Sevastova loses this and would even grab the game spread here.
2-Kerber -215 over Siniakova.  Siniakova should be playing challengers and Kerber is playing well and has a style that loves clay and long rallies.  This is pretty much a guarantee win.  Game spread of -4 is amazing EV too.
3-Bouzkova over Tomljanovic at -115.  Yes I know that Tomljanovic beat her a year ago but times have changed.  Tomljanovic isn't playing very well while Bouzkova is really looking great.  Go watch her recent match w Pegula (pegula barely won) at the US open.  Bouzkova fought hard and did very well.  She just loves longer rallies and can stay in the point forever while Toml cannot.
 
Any thoughts about these 3 or any others would be greatly appreciated.  I have posted a few overconfident winners on this site and for that I apologize.  You would never guess that I am actually a very winning bettor who made a ton on Cincy and the US open LOL.
 
Thanks!
 
mdlp

i could beat babos and im a 4.0 come on!!

agree to disagree and thanks!

madison keys likely to fall today. her opponent is almost a 7:1 dog. im in for $500 i have watched bolsolva and she is legit...she easily took down an in-form teichmann in last round completely under the radar.

im not saying not to bet it, i guess im saying don't bet too much. i know that after a 3 month layoff myself during the pandemic i felt very very uncomfortable on the court. and practicing helped but i was still unprepared for my first official match where i was beat in straight sets by a guy i would beat today.

tough linette loss...so close!  hang tough Czech!

Pretty sure gonna bet Alexandrova at +166 on bookmaker as well.  Sakkari did make the final in San Jose last year but she will struggle w alexandrova and +166 is a bit too much.

I agree about Cori Gauff.  I guess my fritz over norrie pick for 20 units never got confirmed for posting by the moderator.  For some reason on my iphone it needs to be confirmed but not on laptop?
 
Ok my next pick would be Lauren Davis over Bouchard at -145 bookmaker.  Bouchard shouldnt even be playing tennis anymore.  She's absolutely horrific.  Davis has shown considerable skill and of course shocked the world at wimbledon crushing Angie Kerber.  I see good value here all the way up to -175.
 
I also like Siniakova over Pegula at -140 on bookmaker.  Pegula is terrible and Siniakova has showed increasing ability this season.  Especially like how she toppled a capable Alexandrova at Wimbledon (who could give Sakkari trouble in San Jose in round 1 as well).

So true.  But there's still some interesting stuff this week on clay in the WTA if you really love the grind:)  After losing so much on the final serena vs halep match (literally lost all of my wimbledon profits on the single match) I kinda need the break anyway.  Still felt like the bet was right, but disappointed.  I'll be courtside for the San Jose tourney which looks to be really good this year with Svitolina and some other big names coming:)

YTD 2-3 at -0.05 units.  Next picks:
1-Svitolina over Halep  at +180   on 5 dimes - 5 unit bet
2-Strycova over Serena at   +325 on 5 dimes - 1 unit bet
I think Svitolina wins the whole thing most likely.  Her first legit shot at a slam and Halep's simple ways won't work against her variety and hunger.  Hoping strycova can continue and Serena shows up like she sometimes can...stale:)
 
GL!

YTD 2-3 at -0.05 units.  Next picks:
1-Svitolina over Halep  at +180   on 5 dimes - 5 unit bet
2-Strycova over Serena at   +325 on 5 dimes - 1 unit bet
I think Svitolina wins the whole thing most likely.  Her first legit shot at a slam and Halep's simple ways won't work against her variety and hunger.  Hoping strycova can continue and Serena shows up like she sometimes can...stale:)
 
GL!

There are a few reasons why I bet Strycova at +130 over Mertens.  First, I watch a ton of women's tennis (it's the only sport I bet on)  and will even attend the last 3 rounds of wimbledon live in person.  I've seen both of these ladies play live more than once as well.   Strycova has been on fire since her grass season began in Birmingham with only 1 bad performance at Eastbourne against Hercog where she had to retire as she was feeling like crap and Hercog was super tricky in a rainy court.  If you watched Strycova's last match against Bertens, particularly the last set, you'll see that she is bringing a ton of hustle and variety to her game right now.  Mertens on the other hand, barely got by an out-of-form Qiang Wang in her last set and really just kept the ball in play and let an injured opponent err.
 
Honestly, I think Mertens is a fine player but really hasn't impressed me a lot lately.  She's a typical euro player who can rally and such but lacks depth and I think at +130 it's a price I can't walk away from.

2 other good underdog bets I have are Zhang Shuai at +165 and Martic at +110.  I would not be suprised to see 3-0 with these 3 underdog picks for tomorrow.

As always, good luck - MDLP