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Wimbledon 2021


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  • 4 weeks later...

Hi folks!

I'm a forum member for several years but drifted away from the forum for a good while, but I'm back now and looking forward to Wimbledon!

Unfortunately I'm a bit late with the bet I was going to propose, and that is for Ludmila Samsonova to win Wimbledon.

She was a standout 80/1 on Bet365 only a week or so ago, but sadly she's come in since, first to 66/1 and now to 33/1.

From a prospects point of view, this is obviously a good sign, but from a value perspective, less so.

But there's no doubt she's on a hot streak at the moment, storming through the field in Berlin, beating Bencic and Azarenka on the way to the title.

I'd still say she's worth a small e/w stake at 33/1 (Paddy Power and Bet365).

Edited by amity
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Barrere to beat Botic Van de Zandschulp at 1.72 with William Hill
Kukushkin (vs. Bublik) To Win a Set - Yes at 1.72 with bet365
Kenin (-3.5 Games) to beat Xinyu Wang at 1.85 with William Hill

I take Barrere over Botic cause the french player has passed the qualification brilliantly despite having one of the toughest draws (Fratangelo, Stakhovsky and Jung). He has a game that suits on grass and he has good record on this surface (16-8). Botic had an easier draw (Lorenzi, Celikbilek and Trungelliti) but he lost in his last match against Trungelliti in 4 sets. He only has played 5 matches on grass and he has a negative record (2-3) so Barrere is the right favorite. Besides, these players have played 2 times before (2020 and 2021) and Barrere has won both. 
I take Kukushkin to win at least one set against Bublik. Kukushkin has had a very bad year (6-15) but he's a good player on grass. In the last edition here he reached the 4th round after beating Andujar, Isner and Struff, not bad at all... He lost in the 4th round against Nishikori but he took a set from him. Bublik beat Kukushkin easily in Eastbourne (6-1, 6-4) just 3 days ago and these odds are clearly influenced by that. I expect a better performance from Kukushkin this time and I think he should take at least one set. 
Kenin has not played a single match since the FO while Xinyu has passed the qualification without dropping a single set (Robin Anderson, Kostova and Smitkova). That being said, I can't imagine Kenin losing in the 1st round against a player whose best ranking ever is 135. Kenin never has done nothing remarkable here but she passed the 1st round in the last 2 editions. Besides, she demonstrated how good she can be on grass when she won in Mallorca after beating Flipkens, Jabeur, Mertens, Sevastova and Bencic. Kenin will play with no pressure cause nobody see her as a candidate and that's what makes her a dangerous player here. Kenin did very bad in the AO and in the FO but this is a completely different case. In Australia she was the current champion and in the FO she was a current finalist but now she will play with no pressure cause she never has done nothing here so she has nothing to lose.

This is what I have for now. Probably will add something later..

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Player to Reach Round - Bautista To Reach the 3rd Round - Yes at 1.83 with bet365
Player to Reach Round - Felix Auger Aliassime To Reach the 3rd Round - Yes at 1.53 with bet365
Player to Reach Round - Kvitova To Reach the 3rd Round - Yes at 1.72 with bet365
Who Will Go Further - Muguruza vs. Andreescu - Muguruza at 1.57 with bet365

RBA will play against Millman in the 1st round and then he will play against Bagnis or Kecmanovic, most likely against the serbian player. In the last edition RBA reached the SFs after beating Gojowczyk, Darcis, Khachanov, Paire and Pella. He lost in the SFs against Djokovic in a 4 set match. He dominates the h2h against Millman (5-1) and Kecmanovic (2-0). I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers but I expect him to win at least these 2 first rounds.
FAA will play against Monteiro in the 1st round round and then he will play against Tsonga or Mikael Ymer in the 2nd round. FAA has played really well in his last 2 tournaments on grass. He beat Harris, Humbert and Querrey in Stuttgart and then he beat Hurkacz, Federer and Giron in Halle. 
Kvitova will play against Stephens in the 1st round and then she will play Ahn or Watson in the 2nd round. Kvitova has played 4 matches on grass (3-1). She beat Piter, Ann Li and Podoroska and she lost in a 3 set match against Kerber (6-3, 4-6, 6-7). Stephens has not played a single match since the FO. Watson in the 2nd round could be a tricky opponent but Kvitova is better and she should beat her, too.
Muguruza did really bad in the last 2 editions here but she has been lucky with the draw. This time she comes here with better form after beating easily Cirstea and Rybakina in Eastbourne. She lost against Cornet in the QFs but she could have won that match (6-4, 3-6, 6-7). She will play against Ferro in the 1st round and Kuznetsova or Kerkhove in the 2nd round. Jabeur is the only player who can trouble her a little bit in the 3rd round and then she will face Swiatek, Bouzkova, Zvonareva or Martic in the 4th round. Andreescu has never won a main draw match here and she comes in a bad form. She has played 3 matches and she only has won 1. She lost against Cornet in Berlin (6-7, 5-7). After that, she beat McHale in a 3 set match but then she lost easily against Kontaveit (6-3, 6-3). She will play against Cornet again in the 1st round. If she beats her then she will have an easier opponent in the 2nd round (Minnen or Tomjlanovic) but then she will have to play Ostapenko or Kasatkina in the 3rd round and then Azarenka, Kontaveit or Vondrousova in the 4th round. She already lost in the 1st round in the FO (vs. Zidansek) and now, with this tricky draw, I wouldn't be surprised if she has another early bye here. Remember that if both players lose in the same round the bet is void.

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Well, it's just around the corner now! Good luck to everyone!

Player to Reach Round - Bautista To Reach the 3rd Round - Yes at 1.83 with bet365

Sofia Kenin (-3.5) to beat Xinyu Wang at 1.77 with Unibet

Just blatantly copying @darko08!

Ludmilla Samsonova (-3.5) to beat Kaia Kanepi at 1.94 with Pinnacle

Samsonova is the comet of the grass court season and I don't see a reason why she can't continue winning here. She's had enough rest and she'll be up against someone who's nearing the end of her career. Kanepi was seriously good back some years ago, but she's only a part-time player now really and she is yet to play on grass this year as well. These handicaps are tricky and I'm taking three, but I feel that all three players are capable of getting them in even in certain three set scenarios.

Nadia Podoroska to beat Ann Li at 2.99 with Pinnacle

A bit of a gamble obviously, but I don't see why Li should be such a big favorite here. She's the favorite, she's more proven and she tested Kvitova more in Bad Homburg. Podoroska showed some decent tennis against the Czech as well, though, and she's been on a steady rise in this season. I wouldn't have her above 2.50 here in all honesty and no result would shock me. Simple wins for either are very much on the cards.

Elina Svitolina (-3.5) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Alison Van Uytvanck has finally found some for after being on an awful run some weeks ago, but Svitolina is still on another level. She moves way better than the opposition AvU has faced so far on grass and that should prove to be the winning difference imo. Svitolina is yet to impress this season, true, but she's been quite steady for most of it, losing only against better players than AvU.

 

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Kristyna Pliskova to beat (-1.5 sets) Danka Kovinic at 2.17 with Unibet

Danka is plain and simple completely useless on grass. Has barely won a set or a match on the surface through the years and has always prefered to play on clay before Wimbledon. One season she came from playing in the Bol 125k tournament and another straight from clay in Ystad, Sweden and this season straight from losing in Roland Garros round 1. She has never won a match in the maindraw of SW19 and not even a set in three tries. The only notable player she's beaten in SW19 is Sachia Vickery 6-4 6-4 in the qualies round 1 and got beaten in qualies round 2 by Danielle Lao 2019. The Pliskova twins know their way on the grass and this one will highly likely simply be quite onesided as it always is when Danka comes to collect the SW19 round 1 paycheck and go on to play in some minor event on clay.

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Mikael Ymer to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.95 with William Hill

Someone posted a little while ago how bad Tsonga has been since returning from injury, and in particular against Gerasimov (his only grass match since 2019). Ymer has played at a decent level recently, defeating Monfils and Carballes Baena at the French Open - before losing 3-0 to Sinner. Ymer will have a big fitness edge, and the confidence that comes from actually winning matches. 

Tsonga on the other hand has won 1 match since the end of 2019. In 2021 his win:loss is 1:6. He has won a total of 3/17 sets played. 

Edited by AgaRadwanska
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Side note: does anyone see value in backing Fritz (2.62) vs. Nakashima? Fritz hasn't played any of the grass warm-up tournaments. Nakashima has, but is still super  young, and this is his first Wimbledon main draw, and he's mostly a hard court guy. 

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1 hour ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Side note: does anyone see value in backing Fritz (2.62) vs. Nakashima? Fritz hasn't played any of the grass warm-up tournaments. Nakashima has, but is still super  young, and this is his first Wimbledon main draw, and he's mostly a hard court guy. 

Fritz has had an operation and just returned in time for SW19 so his level of fitness should be lower than usual.

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I think time has arrived that Federer will announce his retirement during wimbledon.

He can't beat any of the top players any longer, and in addition, any average player may upset him. 

For me, both Federer and Serena are not anymore necessary to the sport. Despite i am Federer's fan, at the same time, i can not afford to see him  losing to anyone passes from his road.

If i find any bet about the legend's retirement, i will do it.

For Serena i don't bet anything, because i am 100% that she wont make any noise here.

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7 hours ago, delfino said:

I think time has arrived that Federer will announce his retirement during wimbledon.

He can't beat any of the top players any longer, and in addition, any average player may upset him. 

For me, both Federer and Serena are not anymore necessary to the sport. Despite i am Federer's fan, at the same time, i can not afford to see him  losing to anyone passes from his road.

If i find any bet about the legend's retirement, i will do it.

For Serena i don't bet anything, because i am 100% that she wont make any noise here.

Serena beats all the up and coming talents and finally says goodbye to the sport after making history with claiming her 24th grand slam trophy.

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I haven't watched Kevin Anderson matches.I believe he's a solid top 15 player on his day, any reasons why he's been playing poorly or is age catching up with him .I have an intuition to back a set from Barrios Vela despite this being one of Anderson's favorite surfaces..

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Daniel Elahi Galan to beat (-2.5 sets) Federico Coria at 2.35 with Unibet

Galan has played 2 matches on grass prior to SW19 in Halle qualies and won one of them. He's won one match in Roehamptons SW19 qualies 2019 beating Lorenzo Giustino of Italy in straights. He's taken a set off Nic Mahut which he won 6-1 in Roehamptons SW19 qualies 2018. Federico has beaten DEG in straights easily on clay before once in a challenger but now he comes in after yet another loss in a claycourt challenger final. Federico has never won a set on grass and played only two matches on the surface in Roehamptons SW19 qualies 2017 and 2019 losing to Gerard Melzer 3-6 0-6 and Alex Popyrin 5-7 2-6.

I can in no way see the younger Coria brother troubling DEG here.

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@lelit what is confusing? Barty is injury troubled since Rome, Halep out, Andreescu in bad form, Osaka doesn't play until Olympics. Azarenka and Kvitova I don't think will win anymore GS titles. The only two I think that can threaten Serena is Kerber and Ostapenko. It's now or never for Serena. She will never again get a better chance of winning the magical 24 than this years SW19.

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5 hours ago, Hermes said:

I haven't watched Kevin Anderson matches.I believe he's a solid top 15 player on his day, any reasons why he's been playing poorly or is age catching up with him .I have an intuition to back a set from Barrios Vela despite this being one of Anderson's favorite surfaces..

I have and he wasn't great in the grass warm up tourneys. He servebots sets but so many errors, vs. obscure opponents. 

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5 hours ago, Striker said:

Women

Elina Svitolina

 

Each Way @ 66-1 Boylesports

Class act who tends to play the Grand slams well, and got to the semi finals in the last Wimbledon before losing to the eventual winner

In an open year with not a bad draw the Ukrainian should give us a run for our money

“Just because you are standing alone doesn't mean you are standing in the wrong place”

You are certainly standing in the wrong place bro. Svito who?? Keep searching, trust me!!!

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weather looks bad :) anyway, i have some tips for day 1. We have some underdogs here, who can make matches much more thight than bookies suggest.

Garin - Zapata Miralles over 36.5 games @1.78 with WWin

Evans - Lopez over 38.5 games @1.77 with Marathonbet

Garin - Zapata Miralles over 36.5 games @1.78 with WWin

Harris - Berankis over 3.5 sets @1.61 with Marathonbet

and 2 combo bets, where we could see some tight sets but I´ll also play on winner.

Khachanov To Win + Total Games Over 31.5 Yes.@2.11 with Marathonbet

Otte To Win + Total Sets Over 3.5 @3.54 with Marahonbet

good luck

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On 6/27/2021 at 6:10 AM, AgaRadwanska said:

Mikael Ymer to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.95 with William Hill

Someone posted a little while ago how bad Tsonga has been since returning from injury, and in particular against Gerasimov (his only grass match since 2019). Ymer has played at a decent level recently, defeating Monfils and Carballes Baena at the French Open - before losing 3-0 to Sinner. Ymer will have a big fitness edge, and the confidence that comes from actually winning matches. 

Tsonga on the other hand has won 1 match since the end of 2019. In 2021 his win:loss is 1:6. He has won a total of 3/17 sets played. 

totally agree , Tsonga seems washed out , his last match he was the fav at 1,6 and lost in straight sets , similar thing in his previous matches

i actually can't understand those odds especially in a 5 set match since he clearly hasn't got good stamina , for me Ymer should be at 1,5 or something like that

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Well, some rain delay... Anyways, I add this parlay for matches that in theory were scheduled for tomorrow.

Kostyuk (vs. Bertens) + Bencic (vs. Juvan) + Gauff (vs. Jones) + Kasatkina (vs. Tig) at 1.71 with bet365

Bertens announced her retirement a few days ago. She basically said that the "tank was quite empty" and she also said that the balance between the hard work and the satisfaction she was getting of it at the end of the day was not positive. In October 2020 Kiki had an Achiles tendon surgery and she never fully recovered from that. Her record since that surgery is really poor (2-7). She said that Eastbourne, Wimbledon and the Olympics will be her last tournaments. In Eastbourne she lost easily in the 1st round (6-1, 7-5) against Rogers. Kostyuk has had a good year (17-10). SFs in Abu Dhabi and Istanbul and a very decent 4th round in the FO. She has played 5 matches on grass this year (3-2). She beat Brengle, Murray and Shuai Zhang and lost against Kasatkina (2-6, 5-7) and Sevastova (1-6, 7-6, 4-6).
I think Bencic should win her first 2 matches here and face Gauff in the 3rd round. She has had a decent year (17-13). She reached the Final in Berlin, beating good players (Niemeier, Martic, Alexandrova and Cornet) and she lost in the 2nd round in Eastbourne against Golubic after beating Martic. Juvan did well on grass in 2019 but this year she only has played one match on grass (vs. Muhammad) and she has lost it. In fact, she's on a 5 losing streak.
Nothing much to say about the Gauff-Jones match. Jones is on 6 losing streak and she has lost the 3 matches she has played on grass (Garcia Perez, Vekic and Pera). Gauff played in Eastbourne, where she won against Mertens but lost against Sevastova, both were 3 set matches.
Tig won in Bad Homburg her first match on grass of her career (1-6). She beat Barthel (7-6, 6-3) but then lost against Podoroska in a 3 set match. Kasatkina has had a good year (26-11) and she has been impressive on grass (6-2). She reached the Final Birmingham (Hercog, Kostyuk, Martincova and Vandeweghe) and she beat Zvonareva and Swiatek in Eastbourne before losing against Ostapenko in a 3 set match.

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22 hours ago, Hermes said:

I haven't watched Kevin Anderson matches.I believe he's a solid top 15 player on his day, any reasons why he's been playing poorly or is age catching up with him .I have an intuition to back a set from Barrios Vela despite this being one of Anderson's favorite surfaces..

It's already underway but I'm taking overs by Barrios Vela. 👀

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22 hours ago, Hermes said:

I haven't watched Kevin Anderson matches.I believe he's a solid top 15 player on his day, any reasons why he's been playing poorly or is age catching up with him .I have an intuition to back a set from Barrios Vela despite this being one of Anderson's favorite surfaces..

BOOM 🔥

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