Tennis Tips - July 29 - August 4

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Well, no Hamburg for us anymore, but let's get things going anyway .

[CzechPunter]

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Daniel Evans at 3.50 with Unibet

I'm not too thrilled to be backing Nishioka, as he's been largely disappointing so far in this season, but 3.50 is just too much imo. The Japanese guy always plays with a lot of determination and he has a lot to prove, while Evans might want some rest after a decent run in Atlanta. Nishioka also beat him the one time they met before, so it's not like he can't beat him. Don't go overboard with the stakes here, but I think there's value at these odds.

[CzechPunter]

Cori Gauff to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.76 with Pinnacle

I was a bit worried about Gauff in the qualifiers given the drop in grade, but she's shown her usual composure and I'm therefore willing to back her against Diyas, who's been on the down for quite a while now and who'll be hoping that Gauff is going to start missing, as she doesn't have any other routes to a win imo. She can defend well, that has to be said, but she can't defend against Gauff on song. A lot of value in this I'd say.

[teodorppv]

Marco Cecchinato to beat Jeremy Chardy at 2.37 with WilliamHill

 

Reasons why I think Cecchinato will win the match

1. Cecchinato can beat almost every player on clay if it is his day (last season won agains Djokovic, last season and this year wins against Pella).

2.Clearly Marco needs wins right now, he dropped more than 40 places for the last couple of months.

3. The clay season is near it ends for this year so this is going to be the last chance for Cecchinato to win some points for the ranking because definitely I do not expect some good performance from him in the American hard court swing.

3. Jeremy Chardy is not playing his best tennis right now. 

4. Last week, Chardy showed some weaknesses ( lost a set against Paire, very tough win against Gasquet and awful performance against Basilashvili).

[mdlp]

I agree about Cori Gauff.  I guess my fritz over norrie pick for 20 units never got confirmed for posting by the moderator.  For some reason on my iphone it needs to be confirmed but not on laptop?

 

Ok my next pick would be Lauren Davis over Bouchard at -145 bookmaker.  Bouchard shouldnt even be playing tennis anymore.  She's absolutely horrific.  Davis has shown considerable skill and of course shocked the world at wimbledon crushing Angie Kerber.  I see good value here all the way up to -175.

 

I also like Siniakova over Pegula at -140 on bookmaker.  Pegula is terrible and Siniakova has showed increasing ability this season.  Especially like how she toppled a capable Alexandrova at Wimbledon (who could give Sakkari trouble in San Jose in round 1 as well).

[mdlp]

Going to pick a Vekic x Navarro (-370 x -170 bookmaker) parlay.  Doi isn't at Vekic's level and Navarro should easily topple a weak Linette.  Vekic has shown a lot of will and ability over the past couple months and Navarro is really spunky with a one-handed backhand and speed that would trouble a slow and docile Linette.

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to PL @teodorppv! No need to add manual links to the bookies, our website does things automatically!

@mdlp Not sure what happened there, but you're an approved member already, so you should be able to post freely. Maybe you misclicked on your iPhone and didn't really send it?

[mdlp]

Pretty sure gonna bet Alexandrova at +166 on bookmaker as well.  Sakkari did make the final in San Jose last year but she will struggle w alexandrova and +166 is a bit too much.

[StargardPoland]

Hey, do you know any good tennis stats pages?

[CzechPunter]

I suppose you can use matchstat, just google it.

One more pick for me today though.

Evgeny Karlovskiy to beat Raymond Sarmiento at 1.70 with a local bookie

My local bookie is actually offering this at 1.75, but it's now slowly appearing at 1.70 with various online bookies, so just wait for it and take it unless the price drops below 1.45ish, which is where I would be expecting it to be at the start of the match. Karlovskiy is much better than Sarmiento, little-known but I've always liked him for his determination. A hard-working guy that went well last week and I expect him to be right in the thick of things this one as well.

[CzechPunter]

Just watching Hyeon Chung in Chengdu...nice to see him back! And, incidentally, his last match before the long injury break was a tight loss against Basilashvili .

[vikki37]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

I suppose you can use matchstat, just google it.

One more pick for me today though.

Evgeny Karlovskiy to beat Raymond Sarmiento at 1.70 with a local bookie

My local bookie is actually offering this at 1.75, but it's now slowly appearing at 1.70 with various online bookies, so just wait for it and take it unless the price drops below 1.45ish, which is where I would be expecting it to be at the start of the match. Karlovskiy is much better than Sarmiento, little-known but I've always liked him for his determination. A hard-working guy that went well last week and I expect him to be right in the thick of things this one as well.

1.83 with bet365 now. 

[CzechPunter]

Wow, a solid move against, wasn't expecting that. Well, not much to do now but hope I was right - I certainly liked Karlovskiy last week and he's not the type to just give up on matches.

[cluelessG]

I am considering betting on Steve Johnson to win against Grigor Dimitrov (odds 2.23 at Pinnacle). I have not seen Johnson play in a while and I have no idea what sort of form he's in... but Dimitrov is struggling big time. Johnson won a couple of matches at Wimbledon and then lost narrowly to Eubanks at Newport (grass) two weeks ago. He should be well rested. H2H - Dimitrov has won 4 matches (3 on hard court), Johnson has 2 wins (1 on hard court). Dimitrov will start winning again at some point, just not sure he should be priced as a favorite today.

[Torque]

@cluelessG I posted about Dimitrov last week, saying how awful he was when he played. I'm surprised after playing so badly that he's favourite against Johnson so it's almost a must bet I'd say.

[darko08]

Hi guys! I'm back after a long vacations and I will try to post some value bets.

Reilly Opelka vs Christopher Eubanks Over 24.5 Games at 1.80 with betway

No explication needed in this one, we have 2 bombs servers (especially Opelka of course) so I expect long sets. 

[CzechPunter]

Janko Tipsarevic (+1.5 sets) to beat Radu Albot at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Last one from me today, but I'm going to bite on this after remembering the fights Tipsarevic put up at SW19. He's not better than Albot anymore, but he's enjoying himself on the courts and this is one of those events that could possibly suit him in terms of atmosphere. He's picking his spots, while Albot has a full schedule and might not be too thrilled by Mexico.

[CzechPunter]

Dominic Thiem to win ATP Kitzbuhel at 2.37 with Bet365

A short-looking price for an outright, but Thiem really is head and shoulders above everyone in this field. He was a bit unlucky against Rublev last week, but this should be easier with all the tougher guys out of form. Verdasco and Kohli have been poor recently, so perhaps it's between him and Cuevas?

[South_African_Punter]

7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Dominic Thiem to win ATP Kitzbuhel at 2.37 with Bet365

A short-looking price for an outright, but Thiem really is head and shoulders above everyone in this field. He was a bit unlucky against Rublev last week, but this should be easier with all the tougher guys out of form. Verdasco and Kohli have been poor recently, so perhaps it's between him and Cuevas?

Are you not worried by his historically bad form in this tournament? It almost feels like a trap ?

Edited July 31, 2019 by South_African_Punter

[CzechPunter]

@South_African_Punter I obviously had a look at that as well, but I feel that there was just some bad luck and variance for him. Klizan was just striking everything well last year, for example. He made the finals in 2014 and he's apparently said that he's going to prefer Kitzbuhel over the Olympics next year, so he's committed.

[CzechPunter]

I'm obviously disappointed that Gauff broke the streak, but she was just brought down to planet Earth via a combination of solid defense a lot of home pressure. Diyas just did her thing, waiting patiently for the home girl to start over-hitting and over-playing. Unfortunately, the second set was just a formality with Gauff not regaining any sort of composure whatsoever. This loss obviously doesn't change a thing regarding Gauff's talent and potential, but it might be easier for her to play outside the USA. She was hounded by fans this week and the hype is just too big no matter how much talent she has. If you look at it completely cold, she's only had one good run so far.

[cluelessG]

20 hours ago, Torque said:

@cluelessG I posted about Dimitrov last week, saying how awful he was when he played. I'm surprised after playing so badly that he's favourite against Johnson so it's almost a must bet I'd say.

@Torque I read your post last week - now that Dimitrov has started a proper "winning streak" (needed 2 tie-breaks to eliminate Steve Johnson), he's of course an even stronger favourite against Guido Pella. I got 2.36 for Pella to win with Pinnacle.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, cluelessG said:

@Torque I read your post last week - now that Dimitrov has started a proper "winning streak" (needed 2 tie-breaks to eliminate Steve Johnson), he's of course an even stronger favourite against Guido Pella. I got 2.36 for Pella to win with Pinnacle.

That looks like the play to me - win or lose 

[cialivinci]

David Goffin to beat Nishioka @ 1.4 with Bet365 

I‘m backing Goffin based on his perfomance in Halle where he reached the finale and lost against Roger and Wimbledon where he lost against Djokovic. Both times he played an extremely impressive first set especially against Djokovic but lost eventually due to the overwhelming Djokovic. Although I know that Nishioka is not someone to underestimate, not at all, also coming of an underdog win in his last match, I think Goffin will be too much if he plays agressive like he did so far this year. He showed that he can endure much and succeed, which i think will be the reason he will win against Nishioka. 

H2H statistic is 1-0 for goffin 

Edited July 31, 2019 by cialivinci

[teodorppv]

Grigor Dimitrov to beat Pella at 1.61 with Bet365

Last couple of months were very tough for Dimitrov, but his biggest problem are his own devils which he face every time he play (double faults and cheap errors). The win against Johnston was very tough one but showed that Dimitrov is on the right way, maybe 1 month ago this match was going to end 7 6  4 6  0 6. The both first and third sets showed that Grigor wants to play tennis on the highest level again so I think Pella is not going to be a challenge for Dimitrov. Since the beginning of 2018 Pella hasn't won 2nd round match on hard (except US OPEN 2018 where he reached 3rd round and in Doha 2018 where he reached Semi-final.) Grigor is the better player and I think the win against Johnston is going to be a boost for him.

Edited July 31, 2019 by teodorppv

[Robinnho]

J.Pegula vs I.Swiatek

Take Pegula with Marathon Bet @ 2.02

It's a 50-50 match-up...... taking Pegula with local fans' support and should be more motivated

?

[CzechPunter]

Paolo Lorenzi to beat Jurgen Zopp at 1.40 with William Hill

Lorenzi is the defending champion in Poland this week and he looked really good in the first round as well, which suggests that he wants to try hard. He's aging, but he's not going down as fast as Zopp, who's having a poor season all around and who's now very far from his former Top 100 status.

[Arkadiusss8]

Aslan Karatsev vs Christopher O'Connell 2 1,85 betsson

 

I was starting watching Aussie against Robredo at 6:4; 3:3 but I think this is enough for me. Christopher looking very good, very nice second serve, good one handed backand and amazing footwork on this level. I don't know what Aslan playing but I will try bet for O'Connell

Edited August 1, 2019 by Arkadiusss8

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to PL @Arkadiusss8! Nice bit of formatting there, but I think that we can do without it next time