Giantlife

Well done Harry ! 

That's a shame, no interest in the 2nd half now! 

Hello All,
Although I do not post much, I really appreciate the input from all our members starting with our admin CzechPunter under this section and follow here religiously before any Tennis bets.
What do you guys think about the Jabeur / Rybakina game ? I am leaning towards Rybakina but I would love to hear from our experts.
Thanks in advance.
 

I don't think much has changed since they played each other in the final last year - except for the prices, which are reversed. On that basis, Jabeur might represent some value but even so I think Rybakina wins as she handles the big moments better. Part of that is down to having a metronomic game style which means everything is repeatable and that's in stark contrast to Jabeur, who has lots of variety in her game and who sometimes seems to be unable to decide which shot to play out of the myriad of shots she possesses. When you're under pressure you want to be able to fall back on patterns of play that don't require too much thought and in that sense Rybakina has the edge.

Hello All,
Although I do not post much, I really appreciate the input from all our members starting with our admin CzechPunter under this section and follow here religiously before any Tennis bets.
What do you guys think about the Jabeur / Rybakina game ? I am leaning towards Rybakina but I would love to hear from our experts.
Thanks in advance.
 

Ascot 2.30
We start Royal Ascot with the group one Queen Anne Stakes where William Haggas’s superstar Baaeed has an easy task to take his unbeaten run to eight from eight. He really does look the real deal and I can see him going off a 1/6 chance or even shorter. His recent win at Newbury in the Lockinge has him way ahead of Real World (beaten 3 1/4L), Chindit (5L) and Sir Busker (6 1/4L) and he should have a comfortable victory here under regular rider Jim Crowley. Sit back and enjoy.
 
Ascot 3.05
Seventeen colts go to post for this year’s renewal of the group 2 Coventry Stakes and with the 11th hour defection of Noble Style has the Adrian O’Brien unbeaten Blackbeard and Richard Hannon’s similarly unbeaten Persian Force battling it out for favouritism. Preference of the pair is the latter who has looked a smart prospect winning the Brocklesby at Doncaster and a small field at Newbury. His trainer Richard Hannon has gone in print saying he is comparable to the smart Canford Cliffs whom he trained. He’s the main bet here although one horse who impressed me immensely on his racecourse debut was the Archie Watson trained Bradsell who bolted up at Yorkmon his debut under PJ McDonald who’s replaced today by Hollie Doyle. He is by all accounts held in very high esteem by his trainer and I’ll be backing him each way along with Persian Force.
 
PERSIAN FORCE 2 points win 3/1 William Hill
BRADSELL 1 point each way 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 3.40
A decent sized field of 18 go to post for the group 1 Kings Stand Stakes which has a very international look about it this year with Australian, American, Irish and even a Czech runner alongside the usual British contingent. The top rated here is Australian superstar Nature Strip who has plenty of experience as a seven year old in his native country having won eight group ones. This will be his first run outside of Australia although his work according to his trainer Chris Waller has all gone well having been housed at Charlie Hills’ stable in Lambourn. Drawn 10 gives him options and is a fascinating runner. The market suggests that the American trained Golden Pal will be a big threat. A very fast horse who his trainer Wesley Ward has been talking up in the last week has actually been beaten twice in his ventures to this country and I would favour Aussie Nature Strip who is the main bet. Obviously with the travel involved there is the possibility that both the front two could bomb out and at around 8/11 the pair I will all also be playing one of the others small each way. Tim Easterby’s Winter Power totally blew out on his re-appearance at Haydock behind two of today’s rivals in Kings Lynn and Twilight Calls. He was very easy to back that day and let’s not forget he was a group one winner last season and has to be better than that last run so looks each way value with the extra place.
 
NATURE STRIP 2 points win 5/2 bet365
WINTER POWER 1/2 point each way 20/1 Coral/Ladbroke 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 4.20
The group 1 St James Palace Stakes is next up. Run over a mile it’s for three year old colts and has attracted a field of 13. Warm favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained Coroebus who had plenty of these behind him when winning the 2000 Guineas. He’s yet to race around a bend although his trainer feels that may actually suit him and he’s fared well with the draw in stall 2. He’s hard to oppose with William Buick in the saddle. William Haggas saddles a brace in his German 2000 Guineas winner Maljoom and Heron Stakes winner My Prospero with preference for the latter. It will be a shock to me if Coroebus can’t win again.
 
Ascot 5.00
A true stamina test with the 2m 4F Ascot Stakes Handicap featuring twenty potential stayers. The two favourites are trained by trainers more associated with Cheltenham than Royal Ascot with Willie Mullin’s Bring On The Night and Gordon Elliott’s Pied Piper. Preference is for the latter who has turned into a smart hurdler since joint Elliott from John Gosden. He’s rated 145 over sticks but only 96 today so may have a bit in hand although like Bring On The Night has to truly prove he stays this stamina sapping trip and with the pair around the 7/4 mark coupled it’s maybe worth looking elsewhere for some each way value especially with the extra places. Another hurdler at a much bigger price who looks well handicapped is Paul Nicholls’ Scaramanga the mount of Hollie Doyle. He has claims but it’s yet another hurdler that catches my eye in the John Queally trained eight year old gelding Arcadian Sunrise. He will stay this trip and there were excuses for his latest credible 4th in the Chester Cup (took a keen hold on his first start for 187 days and may not have been at home on the tight track). At the prices I’ll play him each way with the icing on the cake being the booking of useful 5lb claimer Harry Davies.
 
ARCADIAN SUNRISE 1 point each way 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 5.35
A competitive renewal of the listed Wolverton Stakes run over 10F for four year olds and upwards. Last years winner Juan Elcano is back to defend his crown and has definite claims. Bar outsiders Moving Time and Palavechino there is actually only four pound between the other fourteen runners. Plenty hold chances but the one I like is the Andrew Balding trained Foxes Tales although I must admit the widest draw in 16 is a bit of a concern. A Group 3 winner last season at Haydock he misses a penalty for this contest by a couple of week. He’s run well on both outings this season in group 3 company including last time out when 4th to Ilaraab at Newbury with the horse that finished just ahead of him Without A Fight winning well at the weekend. It’s a tough race with bets best kept to a minimum.
 
FOXES TALES 1 point each way 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 6.10
A maximum field of sixteen go to post for this 1m 6F Copper Horse Handicap, a class 2 handicap for four year olds and upwards. Red hot favourite and sure to be thereabouts at the finish is the Aiden O’Brien trained Cleveland who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He came from the back to take the half mile further Chester Cup last time and has been raised 5lb for that victory. He’s yet to encounter ground this fast but is the one to beat. The ground may well ride too fast for the likes of Not So Sleepy and Get Shirty. The Gosden’s run an interesting runner here in Stowell who is making his handicap debut under Frankie Dettori and can be competitive. Charlie Appleby saddles Bandinelli in first time blinkers but he ran so bad last time it’s hard to be too confident about him. A tough handicap but they all have to beat Cleveland who has a touch of class about him and a 5lb rise may not be enough to stop him winning again despite his cramped odds.
 
CLEVELAND 2 points win 3/1 bet365
 

Thank you @CzechPunter & @liquidglass . Much appreciated.
Watching Cilic now and wow he looks like a power to be reckoned with. 

I wouldn't discount Swiatek either!

A couple of strange matches in the last few days. Sabalenka was just so completely out of control against a very average opponent. You just cannot play your best tennis in a state of emotional turmoil. Huge red flag to be avoided, and she will prob lose to the first top 50 player she faces.
I didn't like Auger Alliasime at all. Don't know what he is trying to do, but at this level, on these courts you can't blast an opponent away. His game plan and strategy looks non existent. Again red flag for me.
To see Swiatek battle so much with a much weaker opponent was also just strange. Eventually she came back and dominated, but you don't want to be giving anyone a 4-1 start ... especially one that can play. Amber flag for me.
Radacanu won against Stephens, but seriously, that was just hideous tennis. Stephens with 4 points in 1st set, and 45 unforced errors in 21  games is really really poor. Amazing the she could win a major. In the second set Stephens was 3-2 and she had made 16 errors at that point. Shows you how bad Radacanu was playing. Radacanu will get better, but as mentioned in a previous post, she can't hit through opponents (like the USA open) on a slightly slower court.  For me an amber/Red flag.
Not sure where Francis Tiafoe is at the moment, but he is drifting in matches and making life hard for himself. Blew the 4th set in his previous match and won the 5th, but it is not ideal prep. He also lost both his warm up matches. Red flag for me.
If you gave me a free 50 pound bet, the last guy I would put the money on is Tsitsipas. He just looks all outta shape to me, and will run into a demolition job soon. Def red flag for me.
Real pity to see Tauson to land up against Konteveit in the 2nd round. A lot worse players will make it into the next round. Gotta get seeded to avoid this stuff. For me that is gonna be a close match. 
 
OK, enough of the RED flags. Lets look at the good stuff.
 
Muguruza is like a much better version of Sabalenka. For me she has it. Tall, athletic, good serve, power. No contest against Cornet tomorrow, who prob gets overpowered.
Daria Kasitkina been play well here, and in the warm up tournaments. I think she blitzes Linette quite comfortably.
E Rybakina playing well. Her game is set up behind a very good, repetitive serve. WHen it is working (more often than not by a large way), she dominates and wins easily.
Dan Evans getting the job done and cruising along. I think he has way too much for Rinderknech in a comfortable victory.
Monfils looks to be in spectacular form. Hell of an athlete, with incredible skills. A danger man for the whole thing. Khachavov also really solid, with a terrific, ruthless performance. Beating people quickly at this stage is a huge plus! 
Today went 6 for 6 in my low odds predictions. 
1/19/2022 Carreno-Busta v T Griekspoor Carreno-Busta 0.34 1/19/2022 C Alcaraz v D Lajovic C Alcaraz 0.12 1/19/2022 K Khachanov v B Bonzi K Khachanov 0.2 1/19/2022 E Svitolina v H Tan E Svitolina 0.14 1/19/2022 P Badosa v M Trevisan P Badosa 0.12 1/19/2022 V Kudermetova v G Ruse V Kudermetova 0.36  
and I am pretty confident in what my Machine learning and Tableau filtering systems spat out for tomorrow;
1/20/2022   Schwartzman v C O Connell Schwartzman 0.21 1/20/2022   M Cilic v N Gombos M Cilic 0.11 1/20/2022   de Minaur v K Makchrzak de Minaur 0.22 1/20/2022   van de Zandschulp v R Gasquet van de Zandschulp 0.3 1/20/2022   G Muguruza v A Cornet G Muguruza 0.21 1/20/2022   S Halep v B Haddad Maia S Halep 0.13  
I will stake big  on  Muguruza, Schwartzman, Cilic  (6.4 to 10) in the early bird kick off and wake up hopefully to an addition to the bank roll. I want solid performers, and am not looking for 2 to 1 long shots.
Then hopefully can repeat the medicine in the mid morning with de Minaur, Botic and Halep (8 to 10). Two nice wins will be a stress free excellent day.

Another profitable day on Saturday as Yeovil managed to cover the -1 handicap against Kings Lynn. Amazingly Chesterfield who ended up going off around 1/14 managed to only get a point against Wealdstone which let the treble down. I have 2 bets for Tuesday night.
Aldershot v Eastleigh
I really don't understand the prices here as I would make Eastleigh clear favourites. Eastleigh now have a great chance of making the play-offs as they have 4 games against sides with nothing to play for and win them all then they will finish at least 7th. Now obviously sides with nothing to play for can be dangerous and although they beat Barnet 3-0 on Saturday the Eastleigh manager admitted after the game that they hadn't played very well and didn't deserve to win 3-0. They had been on a good run of form prior to that though having beaten Sutton and Notts County twice. Indeed they have only lost twice in their last 8 games and they were against Dagenham and Torquay so no disgrace in that. Aldershot on the other hand have only won twice in their last 7 and they were against Wealdstone and Yeovil. They were well beaten by Hartlepool on Saturday as well. The one thing we do have to factor in is fans are back for this game and with it being home fans only maybe that will perk the home side up, but like I say Eastleigh are way over priced for me as I would have them around 5/4.
Solihull Moors v Barnet
After I put them up to beat Altrincham a few weeks back Barnet have found it harder to pick up points in their next 5 games, but their fixture list was very tough in that spell. They had to play Sutton, Notts County, Dagenham and Eastleigh which was never going to be easy. Like I say though they did play well on Saturday and they did beat Weymouth in that spell of games. I have mentioned that Solihull have good home form recently, but they haven't really played that well in those games against Weymouth and Woking and I think Barnet will make things very tough for them. Barnet are a completely different side since their new manager came in and with Torquay and Sutton to come I think he will view this as their best possibility to win a game this season. 13/2 is way too high for me as I don't think there is anywhere near that difference in ability. I'd have them around 11/4 myself so the away win is a value play here.
Eastleigh 2.5pts @ 9/5 with Bet365
Barnet 1pt @ 13/2 with William Hill 

The handicap bets lost on Tuesday although the winning acca meant we came out as level on the night. Onto Saturday and I have two handicap bets and a treble.
Solihull v Woking
I thought Woking were given way too much credit by the BT Sport pundits on Tuesday night. Yes they worked hard especially in the first half, but 2nd half Sutton were all over them and Woking barely got a look in. The 2nd goal was a long range strike from nothing and Sutton's victory was much more comfortable than the score line suggests. It was always going to be easier for Woking's players to get up for a live game against title contenders and now they travel to Solihull for a game with nothing riding on it. As I pointed out on Tuesday Solihull have been strong at home and they came from a goal behind to win 2-1 against Weymouth. Woking looked ropey from set pieces again on Tuesday night and I fancy Solihull to make up the -1 handicap.
Yeovil v Kings Lynn
In their last 10 away games Kings Lynn have conceded at least 2 goals in all bar 2 of those games and in 7 of them it has been 3 or more goals. That sums them up perfectly and Yeovil really ought to add to that figure on Saturday. Granted their last home game on Bank Holiday Monday saw them lose 3-0 to Halifax, but apart from that they have been very good at home and again I think they can cover the -1 handicap.
Treble
I am going to add Chesterfield to Solihull and Kings Lynn. They host Wealdstone and you don't really need me to tell you that it really ought to be a home win. The fact that it nearly pays 2/1 with William Hill looks a cracking bet as it really ought to be shorter for them all just to win their games.
Solihull -1 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
Yeovil -1 3pts @ 7/4 with Bet365
Chesterfield, Solihull and Yeovil 2.5pts treble @ 1.93/1 with William Hill
 

The 'bridle' is the gear, leather straps etc, around the horses head which attach to the reins and allows the jockey to control the horse
You must consider that for 9/10ths of the race the jockey's job is to slow the horse down and save his energy for the business end of the race
A horse that is running 'on the bridle' is still being held back from going full speed by the jockey's hold on the reins
A horse that is running 'off the bridle' is one where the jockey has had to let go of his tight hold and allow the hose to run faster than the jockey ideally wants at the stage of the race. Generally this would be because he's struggling to keep up with the other horses that are still being ridden on the bridle. He's using up his energy to stay with the pack
Being ridden 'off the bridle' is generally a bad thing because it means the horse is generally going as fast as he can but will be overtaken or left behind in the finish by the horses that are still on the bridle and will  go faster when the jockey loosens his hold
At the end of the race most horses will be 'off the bridle' because the sprint for the line is on
As always there are some exceptions
Some horses are just what we consider lazy and need to be pushed and shoved along by the jockey most of the time...…. these will be described as 'off the bridle' but it's just the way they always run and even if held on to will tend not to find much extra when let off the bridle
Sometimes a horse will win very easily and never come 'off the bridle'' ….. the commentators will get very exciting about this because it leads to the thought that they could run a lot faster if the jockey let them off the bridle. You'll hear descriptions like 'he won hard held' ' the jockey had a double handful' …… both mean that the horse won even though the jockey was still holding him back
Double handful = two hands pulling tightly on the reins to stop the horse going faster

Match Report
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 3-1 "That lot from up the road"
Well I was way off the mark with my predictions, although I did say Palace would probably not match their performance from the weekend.
It was a cracking game, and I am pleased to say that there was no trouble, with the away end very subdued after 45mins. To be fair, I think that if the Palace fans thought their team could get back into it, they would have been more encouraging & vocal.
But for me, it was a tale of 2 clubs & how they have developed.
Brighton's recruitment has been terrific over the last few seasons, and the new recruits Bernardo, Andone & Bassouma all shone last night. Their work rate and passion was what was needed to win this game, and they took it to Place from the off. On the other hand, and worryingly for Palace fans, they don't seem to have moved on from last season. There is no goal threat, no desire, no passion, and if you can't show that in a game like this, then you get a fair idea of where you are at. Everything was chanelled through Zaha in the 2nd Hal, but he really looked like he couldn't be bothered. To be honest, he would be better off in panto this Christmas, because that's how he treated the game last night. Hodgson, didn't make any changes at half time, either in personnel or tactics. I mean, come on Roy, your 3-0 down at half time, in a Derby, against 10 men!
To be fair, it was an uncharacteristic performance from Palace, they have always been a team to give 100%, fight for everything & break with speed.
This was Brighton's best perorance since the 3-1 Home win against United.
For Palace, I have said that there are 3 worst teams than them this season, which will have meant safety. But on last nights showing & with Cardiff & Fulham playing well, and Burnley due a change of form/manager, then it's going to be a worrying time for the Nigel's 

Enjoy your victory @Tiffy, it is a game that will live in infamy. But just remember that's all it was: a game, one game, it'll take a lot more than that to crush the spirit of the red & blue army.

Man United are just in a mess. In a way they are experiencing what happened to Liverpool after their dominance in the mid-late 80's . A treadmill of players and managers and nothing really clicking.  
Mourinho's United is out of sync completely, but blame lies everywhere....
Scouting and player recruitment looks really poor. Mkhitaryan, Lukaku, Bailly, Lindelof, Fred, Matic, Sanchez have been added (by Mourinho) , but non of them are/did light it up.
United's best players have been Rashford, de Gea, Lingaard and Shaw. But Mourinho's touch line petulance does not help anyone. When Rashford missed a good chance recently, Mourinho turned his back to the player. Yet when Rashford setup Herrera with an excellent ball (equalizer against Saints, he shows no reaction). That behavior is just rubbish. It helps nobody and is just thoughtless an quite stupid !
These guys are just kids. They don't need 'tough love' all the time. What is the expression ... "To a man who's only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" .
The friction with Pogba will come to the boil pretty soon. Mourinho called him a 'virus', which seems pretty accurate. His performance against Southampton was a disgrace. No effort, work rate, desire. NOTHING. Surely 350k a week could be better spent elsewhere. He could learn a thing from past United greats (Bryan Robson, Roy Keane, Giggs, Scholes).  Robson did'nt play in a great United team, but he gave 110% every game. A United and England legend.
I remember another United player from way back. He was raw, with pace, incredible talent , but super frustrating in his first couple of seasons. When he needed to take on the defender, he would cross the ball. When he needed to cross the ball he would take on the defender. He made the wrong decision at least 60% of the time for 2 seasons (drove van Nistelrooy crazy). Then the learning process clicked ... Who was it ... pretty average guy called Christiano Ronaldo.
Pogba will be on his way, but maybe the kid is just overrated. Most reasonable players would shine playing for Juventus in a midfield of Pirlo and Vidal, against average to weak opposition. Pirlo to provide the finesse and Vidal to run 12 kms a game. You cannot build a team around this guy, so maybe let him go and ride on Ronaldo's back at Juve. WHat did Fergie see in his character that he did not  like ?
Arsenal will be looking for another top performance. Emry has turned them around so quickly, he has done a great job. Players look fit, happy, and they look to be rejuvenated. Losing Sanchez and Ozil has seemed to help them considerably.
My only question is 'will the win over Spurs leave them a little flat' ?
If Arsenal show up with the same drive and focus, I think they win here easily. My prediction is the over 2.5 goals and Arsenal win. This United team is trying to play the Mourinho way, but they have no spirit, no desire to do so, no leaders, no plan, and no defense.  Apart from that, they look good. New tattoos  and haircuts every week.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Dubai One bet 365  9/1  EW

Another profitable day on Saturday and we move on to the final set of fixtures for November where we basically have a full fixture list in the National League which is where my focus is.
Chesterfield v Bromley
Draw!
Well it might not be as simple as that. Bromley are looking pretty poor at the moment and this does look a very winnable game for Chesterfield who despite their long unbeaten run did slip into the relegation zone on Saturday. They are clearly a better side than that and this is a much easier game than Saturday's. However I did think the Havant game was one they could have won and indeed they should have done, but again their lack of scoring goals was the issue in a 0-0 draw. I am going to back the draw again though because the stats suggest it is the value play yet again. How on earth other tipsters still haven't bothered putting it up I don't know. In this match though I am also going to cover the home win because it is a shade of odds against so would give us a tiny profit if it happened and I struggle to see Bromley winning the match.
Hartlepool v AFC Fylde
I have had my fingers burnt a few times when putting up Fylde away from home as they have only one twice and drawn 7 times. I am going to back them again though as I think Hartlepool look vulnerable at the moment. They have lost 5 league games on the bounce including to struggling Dover on Saturday. What probably didn't help was the fact Gillingham took them to extra time in the FA Cup on Wednesday night and I can imagine that game had left a mark. What they need is a week off, but they aren't going to get that and you would hope that Fylde attack them early on as Dover did on Saturday. Fylde scored two goals in the 88th minute to overturn a 1 goal deficit against Boreham Wood on Saturday and they were a bit off their game, but it is always uplifting to win a game in that style and if they could turn this away draws into wins then they might be capable of getting in the title picture. 
Leyton Orient v Aldershot
Tuesday nights do tend to throw up some strange results and if Aldershot even get a point in this game it would be one of the stranger ones of the season. They are woeful on the road having won just once and drawn just once scoring just 5 times in 10 games. They even managed to lose at home to Barrow on Saturday and like Hartlepool the FA Cup replay they had which went to penalties might have been behind the lackluster performance. Orient are beginning to look like they might be hard to catch at the top of the table. They have lost just once all season and have conceded just 13 goals all season whilst scoring 42. They got a huge win on Saturday against Wrexham when Bonne got a crucial goal 4 minutes from time. He deserves to be playing in the Football League and there is every chance he will be doing that with Orient next season. Aldershot lost 4-0 to Salford in their last away match and this should be a comfortable night for Orient and they should cover the -1 handicap which looks a cracking bet to me.
Maidstone v Eastleigh
I wonder if Maidstone might have one eye on the FA Cup match at the weekend as they weren't great on Saturday when I tipped them up. Granted a sending off didn't help, but they were already a goal down at the time and ended up losing 5-2. They did beat Macclesfield at home in the FA Cup a couple of weeks ago, but they have only won once at home in the league all season and I don't expect them to get a 2nd here. Eastleigh are strong away from home and I am beginning to think that they could be play-off contenders as they are creeping into contention. They are 5 games unbeaten now and are playing well. It probably wont be a goalfest, but I do expect the away side to nick it as they are the better side.
Salford v Harrogate
I am going to oppose Salford again because as I wrote on Saturday I think they are going to lose a league game sooner rather than later. It could well have been Solihull on Saturday as Solihull did score but it was ruled out. At the time of writing I haven't seen the goal yet, but it was a contentious decision as the ref had to consult with his linesman after originally giving the goal. Harrogate started slowly against Braintree on Saturday, but found their stride after going a goal down and ran out easy 3-1 winners in the end. They are only 3 points behind their hosts on Tuesday with a game in hand and have lost just two games so far this season in the league. It obviously is no gimmie, but I do think they should be shorter than the price they are as I would have them around 2/1 to win this so they are certainly worth a bet.
Chesterfield v Bromley 1pt draw @ 127/50 with Marathon and Chesterfield to win 1pt @ 21/20 with Betfred
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 127/100 with Marathon
Leyton Orient -1 3pts @ 7/5 with Betfair and Betfred
Eastleigh 2pts @ 141/100 with Marathon
Harrogate 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
 

Some action this weekend. Let's hope for some plus in the end, many underdogs this time. Fights will be in the next two days.
I won't give long analysis as i doubt many of you know these guys. 
Roberto Arriaza to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 13 William Hill 1/10
I doubt Arriaza has a chance to win on the cards as it's a Top Rank event and his opponent Kavaliauskas is a big draw at Welterweight for Top Rank so i can't see the Nicaraguan getting a fair decision here even if he can make the fight close. Arriaza has the power to knock Kavaliauskas out, i think he is pretty heavy-handed and a dangerous opponent here.
Maurice Hooker @ 2.55 Pinnacle 3/10
If Hooker can deal with the pressure and heat Saucedo will bring to the fight i am pretty sure he should beat him as Hooker is the better boxer, should have a reach advantage and knows how to move out and let his jab go. He did well vs. Flanagan in the UK and deserved the title there, today he has to defend it and it might be a coin toss on the paper, can't see Saucedo being a clear favorite here. 
Samuel Teah @ 2.90 5dimes 3/10
I do not rate Kenneth Sims Jr. at all, i doubt he is much better than Montana Love although both met and a draw was the result i think Love deserved the win and Teah also had a very close fight with Love. This looks like an even matchup and Teah is fighting at home in Philly so why not picking him?
Bogdan Dinu @ 12 5dimes 3/10
I wasn't impressed by Millers win over Adamek recently. Adamek is old, slow and shot to pieces + he is a small Heavyweight. Can't say it was a good win for Miller to be honest picking such an opponent after 20 fights. Watched the weigh in and Miller came in heavy as usual at 315 lb and i think this might be a point here as Dinu brings size, speed and power into the ring. Although Dinu only fought some bums over the years he still passes the eye test and looks pretty good. This might(!) be the hardest test for Miller so far and he already had some minor problems with Duhaupas and Wach two slow old robotics with good chin. If Dinu has a good chin (we don't know) and moves he can win this for sure. I mean it is a good sign that he came in light and with the lowest weight since 2011 i think. I already backed worse underdogs at lower prizes and i can smell some kind of an upset here.

FA Cup weekend was rather profitable backed up with FCUM winning at a big price in the league and then Tuesday night it was 2 from 2 with Southport and Dartford both winning. Hopefully that will continue on Saturday and I have 7 bets this weekend.
Chesterfield v Havant & Waterlooville (National League)
I was all set to be all over Harrogate at odds against, but the game has been called off as Maidenhead have too many players called up for international duty. The rest of the fixtures look tricky from a punting point of view, but I have to carry on with my backing Chesterfield to draw system. 3 matches on the bounce it has paid off now and I also had the 1-1 draw covered when they played Halifax a few weeks ago. They have drawn 8 of their last 10 league games and 6 of those draws have been 1-1. When you chuck in the FA Cup game last week which was also a 1-1 draw I am kicking myself for not putting that up for the last 3 weeks! However we can't be too greedy and I will just stick with the draw again. To be honest it does look like a winnable game for the home side, but Havant had last weekend off so they will be fresh and ready and they have managed to win their last 2 games so I am backing the draw again.
Dulwich v Oxford City (National League South) I was surprised that Dulwich lost to Truro last Sunday although it has to be said that Truro do seem to be improving and that made it 4 games unbeaten for them in the league. As for Dulwich that was the 2nd disappointing result in a row as they also blew a 2 goal lead against Weston last Tuesday. They are 4 games unbeaten at home though and I think it is worth opposing Oxford City again. Dartford should have been well out of sight before Oxford made it 3-2 on Tuesday night such was their dominance especially in the 1st half. By all accounts the fact Oxford had been involved in such a tough game at Tranmere 3 days prior showed. Here the focus will surely be on the replay especially as it is on BT Sport and Dulwich are more than good enough to make them pay.   Boston v Southport (National League North) I have to continue backing Southport after 3 superb results now as I get the feeling they are finally showing the reason I backed them ante-post for the title. Granted beating Hereford at the moment is nothing special, but they put the game to bed with ease and I always like it when a team does that whatever the opponents. It is important to try and find teams who are playing better than their league position suggests as the bookies will always price those sides up bigger than they should as they have here. Boston were another one of my ante-post tips for the title and they are having a solid season only being 6 points off the lead, but in their last 5 league games they have only beaten Hereford and as things stand Southport are looking in better form at the moment.   Darlington v Hereford (National League North) For the 3rd game running I have to oppose Hereford. Yes they went down to 10 men on Tuesday night, but they were never really in the game and this is a really tough match for them given how long it has been since they won a league game. The home side meanwhile are unbeaten in 5 league games and have only lost one of their last 8. They have drawn their last 3, but their last two games have been against Bradford and Guiseley so they would have been harder games than this. Hereford have only won one away game all season and Darlington have had a couple of weeks without a league game so should be raring to go against a team low on confidence.   FCUM v AFC Telford (National League North) The home side have yet to win at home, but surely that will change soon given they have shown massive improvement of late. They are now unbeaten in 5 league games and have scored 3 in their last two. Now Telford will be tougher opponents than Blyth or Hereford and are obviously having a good season, but I think FCUM certainly offer value at over 2/1 given like Southport they are clearly playing better than their league position suggests.   Barwell v Kings Lynn (Evo-Stik South Central) Barwell cost us big time a couple of weeks ago when they conceded a penalty in injury time against Bedford and hopefully they won't cost us this time as I think Kings Lynn look a cracking bet. Even before Ian Culverhouse came back as manager they were improving after a tricky start to the season as they are unbeaten in 7 league games, but they have comfortably won both games since he came back. Given how good they were under him last season I am expecting them to be a major force in the division and possibly even push for the title as they are only 9 points behind at the moment. They are a better side than their hosts and after that draw against Bedford they have still only won once at home this season.   Reddtich v Lowestoft (Evo-Stik South Central) I opposed Redditch a few weeks ago against Biggleswade which was a winning bet, but having wondered if their new manger would improve them or not given their seemed to be plenty of issues I certainly got that wrong. I didn't think he would, but he has as they then won their next 4 league games.They did lose 4-0 to Stourbridge on Tuesday night to break that run, but then Stourbridge are 2nd in the table and Lowestoft are certainly no Stourbridge. They have only picked up 1 point in their last 7 league games and have only won once away from home picking up just one other point. Redditch certainly look in much better shape and can bounce straight back from the Stourbridge defeat.   Chesterfield v Havant 1pt draw @ 5/2 with Bet365 Dulwich 1pt @ 61/50 with Marathon Southport 2pts@ 68/25 with Marathon Darlington 2pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power and Betway FCUM 1pt @ 21/10 with Paddy Power Kings Lynn 2.5pts @ 71/50 with Marathon Redditch 2pts  @ 7/5 with BetVictor

2-3, +4.5 units. Cheltenham and Port Vale won...I played the Portsmouth draw at a bit less than the others, which accounts for the extra half unit won.

Cheers everyone and a much better October than September so far thankfully.
A response to the above. I don't keep a record of the profit/loss. I personally think they can be a bit misleading as not everyone will have backed the tip at the price I have put them up at either because they don't have an account with the firm in question or because the price has gone. At the end of the day the stuff I put up is for free so my view is that people either follow or they don't. There are 8 years worth of posts on here if people want to see what I have done in the past. The fact that so many read a Non-League thread which mainly just has my tips on it (although others are more than welcome and are encouraged) says a lot and the fact that Paul wants me to put my tips exclusively on Punters Lounge also must mean something.
I agree that you do need to dig a bit deeper if you want to make money on Non-League football, but the bookies obviously spend very little time in pricing it up themselves so you will get many more errors than you do in the Premier League for example. When it comes to football Non-League is the only thing I bet on so my focus is only on that.

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