BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

[billy the punter]

I've never been one for ratings per se. On the flat I will have, in my head, a handicap mark for each horse, I will then act on that depending on what that horse is officially allotted - so I suppose I do use ratings a little, in a roundabout way, by giving horses my own handicap mark I am rating them. That is for handicapping though, I've always been interested in the rating of certain non-handicapping spheres, 2yos, novices etc. Races where the weights are static and it's a case of comparing multiple formlines. It can be difficult to remember all these different formlines so I feel ratings can be a convinient way of grading performances. When I was at the Racing Post I had to test some ratings software so I started my own 2yo ratings, it was very profitable for the first half of the season, especially in nurseries, but was only averagely reliable for the final third of the season - I probably didn't factor in well enough the influx of better class 2yo's that make their debuts late on. It's something I've always meant to go back to. Just as a bit of a challenge really if anything. So inspired by BH's Novice thread I'd thought I'd give it a shot. I'm concentrating on juvenile novices, I'm looking at that area a lot at the moment and I feel it will be my best bet for producing accurate ratings. I will not be rating races as they come up, it will be an constantly updated list of as many juvenille hurdlers I can rate, similar to Timeform (in style, not quality :lol). Hopefully it will be useful for me, and perhaps others, in assessing races when the horses in question meet. As my judgement style does not lean towards the scientific approach will never use ratings as a cast-iron tool for betting. I like to find improvers and believe that certain horses' improvement can make reading the formbook at face-value a waste of time. Therefore I will introduce a + (similar to Timeform's p that indicates expected improvement and therefore capable of a better rating in the future) and an x (which indicates rating may be unreliable, the horse may be ungenuine, inconsistent or can only achieve that rating under ideal conditions, non-stayer etc). So in theory a 101+ should beat a basic 101, if my judgement is correct of course. 1 unit = 1lb I'm setting myself up for a fall here as I have no experience in this area really, and I haven't paper trailed it at all, I started allotting the ratings this morning. And don't forget, ratings can only ever be a guide, conditions vary for a start. Would love to hear from people on this, especially those who do their own ratings, if they agree/disagree with how I've assessed each performer etc.

[StuSimmy]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Good luck with this mate :ok

[bowles10]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings will look forward to seeing these Billy. Personally i have decided to take a "bit" of a break from the daily racing to spend time on compiling some Cheltenham ratings based on profiling last years winners at the festival. This will involve looking at each horse in every race (so only 24 races to look at!). I wont say much more at present but hope to use them at the December meeting :ok

[fintron]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings look forward to seeing the first batch :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Will follow with interest mate :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Very interesting idea, and it will be very interesting to follow both this thread along with BH's thread. Best of luck. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Cheers chaps - I'm sure I will over/under rate plenty of performances but I'm hopeful it will be helpful overall. :ok Look forward to seeing your findinds bowles. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Pistolet Noir 140

Barizan 140 Olofi 130

Zarinski 123+

Blazing Buck 123

Screaming Brave 122

Causeway King 122

Mohanad 122

Peter Grimes 121

Stormy Weather 120+

Trumpstoo 120

Evening Sunset 120

Anak 119+

Seargeant Pink 119

Alazan 119

Master Fong 119

George Nympton 119

True Britannia 119

Googoobarabajagal 118

Marsool 118

Monsieur Jourdain 118 Westlin' Winds 118

Dark Oasis 117

Nicky Nutjob 116

Space Telescope 115+

New Tricks 113

Royal Max 112

Kind Heart 112

Gilded Age 108+ Hallstat 105 Ciceron 102 Ashes Summer 101 Halling Park 100

Fongoli 100

Coeur Brule 100

Strong Storm 100

Mr Prolific 90 (down 10) Singarpore Reef 96+ Ms Slocombe 80 (up 8) Some Time Good 67 (down 7)

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Just one Juvenile Hurdle today, the 12.50 at Hereford. Adjusted ratings due to weights... Causeway King 8/11 - 122 Singapore Reef 9/2 - n/a Ciceron 5/1 - n/a Westlin' Winds 12/1 - n/a Mr Prolific 16/1 - 104+ Some Time Good 33/1 - 78 Ms Slocombe 100/1 - 83 With the FTO's and the short price I would not play in this race personally, although the favourite does set a high standard. Be interesting to see if Mr Prolific improves on his 100 rating as he is a +horse.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Edit made above - error in the adjustment.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Just one Juvenile Hurdle today, the 12.50 at Hereford. Adjusted ratings due to weights... Causeway King 8/11 - 122 Singapore Reef 9/2 - n/a Ciceron 5/1 - n/a Westlin' Winds 12/1 - n/a Mr Prolific 16/1 - 104+ Some Time Good 33/1 - 78 Ms Slocombe 100/1 - 83 With the FTO's and the short price I would not play in this race personally, although the favourite does set a high standard. Be interesting to see if Mr Prolific improves on his 100 rating as he is a +horse.

Mr Prolific blew up again and was eventually pulled up. I think what I first thought was poor fitness is now something else. Will adjust his rating. Ms Slocombe ran the better of the two rags as the ratings suggest. Causeway King was beaten by a FTO so we need to find out if he ran to his rating or not. Was his 122 over rated? Is the winner decent? CK was supposed to beat Ms Slocombe 39l according to my ratings. He beat her 19l. MS had the run of the race arguably and CK probably didn't act as well on the going. I won't lower CK's 122 rating, as I believe he wasn't quite at his best on softer ground. I won't be going mad about the newcomers, even the winner, they were getting weight and the going suited them more than the fav. Will edit post above with rating changes.

[Gingertipster]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Hi Billy, Good idea for a thread, i know Steve Mellish does his own Juvenile Hurdle ratings. Got a question for you Billy. Do you think it is / might be possible to equate flat form with hurdles? I know Timeform sometimes say in their write ups "similar merit over hurdles as flat". Though I never really looked how they compare. If it is possible to compare codes. Then, is it possible to give a rough rating for juvenile hurdlers who have only run on the flat? Suppose if it is possible Timeform would have done it by now. Though Timeform did try ratings for debutant two year olds for a while, now abandoned. Your thoughts would be appreciated.:ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Hi Billy, Good idea for a thread, i know Steve Mellish does his own Juvenile Hurdle ratings. Got a question for you Billy. Do you think it is / might be possible to equate flat form with hurdles? I know Timeform sometimes say in their write ups "similar merit over hurdles as flat". Though I never really looked how they compare. If it is possible to compare codes. Then, is it possible to give a rough rating for juvenile hurdlers who have only run on the flat? Suppose if it is possible Timeform would have done it by now. Though Timeform did try ratings for debutant two year olds for a while, now abandoned. Your thoughts would be appreciated.:ok

Funnily enough I was going to rate some unraced horses for this. If Alaivan or Mille Chief ran against any of the horses listed above I would make them fav, even off levels. So therefore I predict them to be rated at least 140, in time at least. I do actually think you can give an estimate, but it can only ever be that. So to answer I'd say yes, it is possible to give a rough estimate. I'm involved with a few hurdlers now and I had an estimate of how good I thought they could be (OR-wise) based on their flat form. Most flat horses take to hurdling, but due to some massively improving for 8 flights it's would be impossible to estimate accurately. At this time of the season deciding whether or not to ignore newcombers is important, you must have an opinion, however there has to be a bigger margin for error I suppose?

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Just the one juvenile hurdle today (none Friday), the 1.05 at Huntingdon. Zarinski 123+ Space Telescope 115+ The 9 remaining runners are all FTO, Ultimate for Brian Ellison would be the most interesting of those but I doubt him or any will be good enough to challenge this pair. Zarinski is rated the higher due to his defeat of Space Telescope LTO, both were given + although I expected more improvement from Space Telescope, that said he will have to improve 8lb more than Zarinski improves. This will definitely be the first bet I have through the ratings and will be betting around these two (will be odds-on for my money I would imagine). Will see how the market progresses before finalising.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Just the one juvenile hurdle today (none Friday), the 1.05 at Huntingdon. Zarinski 123+ Space Telescope 115+ The 9 remaining runners are all FTO, Ultimate for Brian Ellison would be the most interesting of those but I doubt him or any will be good enough to challenge this pair. Zarinski is rated the higher due to his defeat of Space Telescope LTO, both were given + although I expected more improvement from Space Telescope, that said he will have to improve 8lb more than Zarinski improves. This will definitely be the first bet I have through the ratings and will be betting around these two (will be odds-on for my money I would imagine). Will see how the market progresses before finalising.

Was happy to take around 1/2 these two couple but the prices are shorter than expected and that isn't possible. Will not be playing singles in the race. I think there is a great chance they will fill the 1-2 spots so the first action on this thread is a F/C selection... Zarinski/Space 0.6pt SFC Space/Zarinski 0.4pt SFC

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Just the one juvenile hurdle today (none Friday), the 1.05 at Huntingdon. Zarinski 123+ Space Telescope 115+ The 9 remaining runners are all FTO, Ultimate for Brian Ellison would be the most interesting of those but I doubt him or any will be good enough to challenge this pair. Zarinski is rated the higher due to his defeat of Space Telescope LTO, both were given + although I expected more improvement from Space Telescope, that said he will have to improve 8lb more than Zarinski improves. This will definitely be the first bet I have through the ratings and will be betting around these two (will be odds-on for my money I would imagine). Will see how the market progresses before finalising.

It really does show how difficult it is when there are so many debutants. Zarinski was well beaten into 2nd place, Space Telescope was an early casualty. Glad I didn't play singles in the race. So far it's been two no-bets with regards to singles in this thread. 0/1 on the F/C side of things though.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

It really does show how difficult it is when there are so many debutants. Zarinski was well beaten into 2nd place, Space Telescope was an early casualty. Glad I didn't play singles in the race. So far it's been two no-bets with regards to singles in this thread. 0/1 on the F/C side of things though.

What sort of rating will you apply to Ultimate mate?? I thought he was very impressive. Who knows Space telescope might have played a part? but Zarinski didn't look the same horse as lto, but even still was very impressed with the winner.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

What sort of rating will you apply to Ultimate mate?? I thought he was very impressive. Who knows Space telescope might have played a part? but Zarinski didn't look the same horse as lto, but even still was very impressed with the winner.

It's tricky mate, Space Telescope coming down makes it extremely difficult to know if Zarinski ran to the same level as LTO. He didn't improve, I'm sure of that. Also I actually thought I possibly over rated the Blazing Buck/Zarinski/Space Telescope form a little. Blazing Buck was PU the time before and was very moderate on the flat, the form may not be as good as it looked at the time. I think the safest option would be to downgrade the previous run slightly. Ultimate was very impressive, in a strongly run race, so have to give him a high rating, possibly the highest of those that haven't run in Graded company. That said, he is similar to Screaming Brave. Not bred for this game ideally but probably more forward than a lot of other juveniles. They will pick up some soft races but may struggle when the late developers catch up and/or newcombers come into the fray.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Pistolet Noir 140

Barizan 140 Ultimate 132 Olofi 130 Screaming Brave 122

Causeway King 122

Mohanad 122

Peter Grimes 121 Blazing Buck 121 Riptide 121 Stormy Weather 120+ Zarinski 120 Trumpstoo 120

Evening Sunset 120

Anak 119+

Seargeant Pink 119

Alazan 119

Master Fong 119

George Nympton 119

True Britannia 119

Googoobarabajagal 118

Marsool 118

Monsieur Jourdain 118 Westlin' Winds 118

Dark Oasis 117

Nicky Nutjob 116

Space Telescope 114+

New Tricks 113

Royal Max 112

Kind Heart 112

Gilded Age 108+ Hallstat 105 Garter Knight 104 Supernoverre 102 Ciceron 102 Ashes Summer 101 Halling Park 100

Fongoli 100

Coeur Brule 100

Strong Storm 100 Singarpore Reef 96+ Hector's House 96 Toldedo Gold 95 Mr Prolific 90 Bahkov 86 Heredias 86 Ms Slocombe 80 Pezula 71 Some Time Good 67 Mt Kintyre 52+ Navajo Nation 44 Pergamon 10

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Ffos Las 12.40 Adjusted ratings... Riptide 121 Blazing Buck 119 Hector's House 98 Bakhov 95 Heredias 91 Najavo Nation 51 Rio Gael FTO Will update in the morning when the market forms.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Ffos Las 12.40 Adjusted ratings... Riptide 121 Blazing Buck 119 Hector's House 98 Bakhov 95 Heredias 91 Najavo Nation 51 Rio Gael FTO Will update in the morning when the market forms.

Didn't get around to posting this morning. The top-rated won and the 1-2-3 were the top three rated. I'm not going to after-time, I didn't play as I didn't think the rating was clear enough to justify the odds (4/6). Would've suggested another "no-bet". The handicapper said Blazing Buck had 10lbs to find with Riptide, I had it much closer than that. Blazing Buck was only beaten 2/3l by Riptide so I am very happy with my assessment there.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Pistolet Noir 140

Barizan 140 Ultimate 132 Olofi 130 Screaming Brave 122

Causeway King 122

Mohanad 122 Riptide 122

Peter Grimes 121 Stormy Weather 120+ Zarinski 120 Blazing Buck 120 Trumpstoo 120

Evening Sunset 120

Anak 119+ Seargeant Pink 119

Alazan 119

Master Fong 119

George Nympton 119

True Britannia 119

Googoobarabajagal 118

Marsool 118

Monsieur Jourdain 118 Westlin' Winds 118

Dark Oasis 117

Nicky Nutjob 116 Hector's House 115 First Bay 115 Space Telescope 114+

New Tricks 113

Royal Max 112

Kind Heart 112

Gilded Age 108+ Lakeman 107x Veronicas Boy 106 Hallstat 105 Garter Knight 104 Supernoverre 102 Ciceron 102 Ashes Summer 101 Halling Park 100

Fongoli 100

Coeur Brule 100

Strong Storm 100 Singarpore Reef 96+ Toldedo Gold 95 Mr Prolific 90 Heredias 90 Gwyre 89 Hydrant 82 Bahkov 80 Ms Slocombe 80 Royal Premium 72 Pezula 71 Some Time Good 67 Mt Kintyre 52+ Navajo Nation 52 Rio Gael 52 Pergamon 10

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings 12.50 Sedgefield Ratings after weight adjustments... Master Fong 119 First Bay 115 Monsieur Jourdain 111 Lakeman 107x Veronicas Boy 106 Gwyre 96 Hydrant 82 Royal Premium 72 Venture Capitalist FTO Toujours Souriante FTO

[fintron]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Didn't get around to posting this morning. The top-rated won and the 1-2-3 were the top three rated. I'm not going to after-time, I didn't play as I didn't think the rating was clear enough to justify the odds (4/6). Would've suggested another "no-bet". The handicapper said Blazing Buck had 10lbs to find with Riptide, I had it much closer than that. Blazing Buck was only beaten 2/3l by Riptide so I am very happy with my assessment there.

You might not have advised it as a bet but at least the ratings are 'working' in identifying possible bets :clap

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

You might not have advised it as a bet but at least the ratings are 'working' in identifying possible bets :clap

Yeah ta mate, I was pleased it "ran to form" of sorts, especially as I had it tighter than the market and handicapper. :ok

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Hi Billy, Not been on the site for a few days so only just noticed the thread-very interesting. Do you arrive at the rating by instinct and or collateral form alone or do you look at the adjusted times for the race relative to the standard? Good luck with the thread Dave

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Hi Billy, Not been on the site for a few days so only just noticed the thread-very interesting. Do you arrive at the rating by instinct and or collateral form alone or do you look at the adjusted times for the race relative to the standard? Good luck with the thread Dave

Hi Dave, Thanks mate, it's really a bit of a test at the moment. A mix of form and instinct if you like. I will get to an initial rating based on collating/comparing form, then I will adjust it slightly based on opinion. I won't use times too much as in some of these juveniles they crawl early on, will sometimes use sectionals though. Plus I have the + and x too predict improvement, inconsistency, or regresssion. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

12.50 Sedgefield Ratings after weight adjustments... Master Fong 119 - 6/5 First Bay115 - 7/2 Monsieur Jourdain 111 - 9/2 Lakeman107x - 20/1 Veronicas Boy 106 - 12/1 Gwyre 96 - 50/1 Hydrant 82 - 125/1 Royal Premium 72 - 100/1 Venture Capitalist FTO - 16/1 Toujours Souriante FTO - 33/1

Obviously the front 2 interest me here but the market seems to have it about right, so once again it's a no-bet. Lakeman is value based on his 107 rating but has the x. This is because I have him as a very doubtful stayer, he is probably only capable of reproducing that rating under ideal conditions. So that is four races looked at so far and not one proper bet advised. Bit boring so far, hopefully the thread will throw up some real market mistakes soon.

[Trotter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

So that is four races looked at so far and not one proper bet advised. Bit boring so far, hopefully the thread will throw up some real market mistakes soon.

Do they have Juvenile only handicaps later in the season ? That might be when the ratings come in to their own - I expect you're usually going to get short price favourites in 'open' races where there's a huge spread of ability

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

12.50 Sedgefield Ratings after weight adjustments... Master Fong 119 First Bay 115 Monsieur Jourdain 111 Lakeman 107x Veronicas Boy 106 Gwyre 96 Hydrant 82 Royal Premium 72 Venture Capitalist FTO Toujours Souriante FTO

Dodged a bullet there as the Master Fong ran no race. Monsieur Jourdain defied a penalty to win well. As expected Lakeman ran well before tiring. I gave Gwyre a decent rating of 96, a relatively high rating for a horse trading at 100/1. She ran a cracker to finish 2nd. I thought she had around a stone to find with the fancied runners so I feel I've missed the trick there. :wall Logically you can see she arguably should've been a small bet at the prices. Still finding my feet with this. Maybe not, hindsight a wonderful thing. No surprise to see her run a better race than the market suggested.