Dave in The Lakes Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Hi Dave, Thanks mate, it's really a bit of a test at the moment. A mix of form and instinct if you like. I will get to an initial rating based on collating/comparing form, then I will adjust it slightly based on opinion. I won't use times too much as in some of these juveniles they crawl early on, will sometimes use sectionals though. Plus I have the + and x too predict improvement, inconsistency, or regresssion. :ok Hi Billy, See what you mean about pace in these races. Another problem is the going with little form to go on and young horses in winter conditions. You will have to tread, or should that be gallop, carefully! Only semantics but are they still Juvenile races when they turn 4 in the New Year? Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings I'll but in gents if you dont mind, to answer Daves question, the juveniles keep their tags throughout the season resulting in the two main juvenile races at Cheltenham for 4yos, The Trimph Hurdle and The Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. Bill, I see you dont have Rupestrian in your list, Timeform have him about the same as Causeway King.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Cheers BH. Rupestrian will be added tonight. Trotter - yes I think you're right. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Pistolet Noir 140 Barizan 140 Ultimate 132 Olofi 130 Rupestrain 127 Screaming Brave 122 Causeway King 122 Mohanad 122 Riptide 122 Monsieur Jourdain 122 Stormy Weather 120+ Zarinski 120 Blazing Buck 120 Trumpstoo 120 Evening Sunset 120 Anak 119+ Seargeant Pink 119 Alazan 119 True Britannia 119 Peter Grimes 118 Marsool 118 Westlin' Winds 118 Dark Oasis 117 George Nympton 116 Nicky Nutjob 116 Bocamix 115+ Shifting Gold 115 Hector's House 115 First Bay 115 Master Fong 115 Space Telescope 114+ Googoobarabajagal 114 New Tricks 113 Royal Max 112 Kind Heart 112 Warrior One 109+ Gilded Age 108+ Shropshire Gold 107 Lakeman 105x Hallstat 105 Gwyre 105 Garter Knight 104 Veronicas Boy 102 Supernoverre 102 Ciceron 102 Ashes Summer 101 Halling Park 100 Fongoli 100 Coeur Brule 100 Strong Storm 100 Singarpore Reef 96+ Toldedo Gold 95 Dream Risk 91 Mr Prolific 90 Heredias 90 Toujours Souriante 85 Hydrant 82 Venture Capitalist 81 Bahkov 80 Ms Slocombe 80 Pezula 71 Some Time Good 67 Royal Premium 68 Mt Kintyre 52+ Navajo Nation 52 Rio Gael 52 Pergamon 10 Bachelor Days 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Wetherby 2.25 Adjusted ratings... Shifting Gold 115 Bocamix 113+ Warrior One 102+ Shropshire Gold 100 Dream Risk 96 Bachelor Days 4 Other 7 runners are FTO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uniquestride Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Hey Billy, not posted much on here before but always have followed posts with interest. Keep up the good work. Very interesting thread. Another one you may have missed out is Forty Thirty. Won 2 Juveniles already this season and twice behind Barizan last two runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Hey Billy, not posted much on here before but always have followed posts with interest. Keep up the good work. Very interesting thread. Another one you may have missed out is Forty Thirty. Won 2 Juveniles already this season and twice behind Barizan last two runs. Thanks unique:ok Yes I have seen Forty Thirty pop up in quite a few form lines, he could be a pivotal horse when comparing form. Will get on the case and give him a rating tonight. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Wetherby 2.25 Adjusted ratings... Shifting Gold 115 Bocamix 113+ Warrior One 102+ Shropshire Gold 100 Dream Risk 96 Veronicas Boy 95 Bachelor Days 4 Other 7 runners are FTO Betfair prices... Shifting Gold 7/4 Bocamix 4/1 Warrior One 5/1 Veronicas Boy 14/1 Bandanaman (FTO) 14/1 Shropshire Gold 25/1 Catch A Cloud (FTO) 25/1 Blushing Soul (FTO) 40/1 Dr Valentine (FTO) 50/1 Dream Risk 40/1 Bachelor Days 66/1 Molesden Glen (FTO) 100/1 Rapid Desire (FTO) 125/1 A tricky race but the bets for me would be Bocamix, Shropshire Gold and Dream Risk, although that does mean opposing another + horse with non-+ horses. Anyway, it's the first single bets of the thread... Bocamix 0.5pt EW 7/2 (PP, SJ, Bet365) Shropshire Gold 0.15pt EW 20/1 (WH) Dream Risk 0.1pt EW 40/1 (Ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Hi Billy, As agreed yesterday there are difficulties with speed figures for juveniles but thought you might be interested to know that the ones I use have shifting gold, shropshire gold and bocamix around the same level but warrior one 6lbs ahead so I hope your fears about opposing a + horse dont come to fruition. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Hi Billy, As agreed yesterday there are difficulties with speed figures for juveniles but thought you might be interested to know that the ones I use have shifting gold, shropshire gold and bocamix around the same level but warrior one 6lbs ahead so I hope your fears about opposing a + horse dont come to fruition. Dave Thanks Dave. And even on my ratings the + will justify him beating higher rated rivals. Tough race this. Obviously the better make my final decisions in this one. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Well done Billy! Dave :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Cheers Dave, very pleased, especially as I waited so long to have a bet on this thread. Dream Risk (advised EW at 40/1) also ran well, beaten just a couple of lengths for a place in 6th. Bets 1 Winners 1 S/R 100% Staked 1.5pts Returns 3.4pts Profit 1.9pts F/C's Bets 1 Winners 0 Staked 1pt Returns 0pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Pistolet Noir 140 Barizan 140 Ultimate 132 Olofi 130 Rupestrain 127 Bocamix 122+ Screaming Brave 122 Causeway King 122 Mohanad 122 Riptide 122 Monsieur Jourdain 122 Stormy Weather 120+ Zarinski 120 Blazing Buck 120 Trumpstoo 120 Evening Sunset 120 Anak 119+ Seargeant Pink 119 Alazan 119 True Britannia 119 Peter Grimes 118 Marsool 118 Westlin' Winds 118 Dark Oasis 117 George Nympton 116 Nicky Nutjob 116 Shifting Gold 115 Hector's House 115 First Bay 115 Master Fong 115 Space Telescope 114+ Googoobarabajagal 114 New Tricks 113 Royal Max 112 Kind Heart 112 Veronicas Boy 110 Warrior One 109 Gilded Age 108+ Shropshire Gold 107 Lakeman 105x Hallstat 105 Gwyre 105 Garter Knight 104 Blushing Soul 104 Tarawa Atoll 103 Supernoverre 102 Ciceron 102 Ashes Summer 101 Bandanaman 100 Halling Park 100 Fongoli 100 Coeur Brule 100 Strong Storm 100 Singarpore Reef 96+ Toldedo Gold 95 Dream Risk 95 Mr Prolific 90 Heredias 90 Toujours Souriante 85 Hydrant 82 Venture Capitalist 81 Bahkov 80 Ms Slocombe 80 Pezula 71 Some Time Good 67 Royal Premium 68 Mt Kintyre 52+ Navajo Nation 52 Rio Gael 52 Lady Of Ashcott 51 Pergamon 10 Bachelor Days 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Taunton 12.35 Ratings after weight adjustments... Googoobarabajagal 113 Tarawa Atoll 110 Coeur Brule 107 Singapore Reef 96+ Lady Of Ashcott 58 Najavo Nation 57 Abulharith FTO Six Of Clubs FTO Valentine Bay FTO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Taunton 12.35 Ratings after weight adjustments... Googoobarabajagal 113 Tarawa Atoll 110 Coeur Brule 107 Singapore Reef 96+ Lady Of Ashcott 58 Najavo Nation 57 Abulharith FTO Six Of Clubs FTO Valentine Bay FTO Singapore Reef 7/4 Googoobarabajagal 7/2 Tarawa Atoll 4/1 Coeur Brule 5/1 Abulharith 16/1 Najavo Nation 25/1 Six Of Clubs 66/1 Lady Of Ashcott 66/1 Valentine Bay NR With Singapore Reef expected to improve on his 96 rating it makes it quite tight at the top. The top four could all run with 7lb of each other. I like Googoobarabajagal at the RP tissue price of 7/1 but at the actual prices it's a no bet from me. Again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Nice winner yesterday Bill, think the fav was poor value too on the face of it and was rightly left alone although to be fair it ran to bad to be true. Todays race should be interesting, pretty much agree on the figures but Singapore Reef wasnt put in the race last time and as you said is probably much better than the bare figs, Couer Brule could be the EW bet, ran ok behind your Anak. Keep it up mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings With Singapore Reef expected to improve on his 96 rating it makes it quite tight at the top. The top four could all run with 7lb of each other. Top four all finished within 3.5l of eachother. I think 2-3-4 ran to form, with the winner improving as expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Just watched the race, they ran just as you predicted Billy - spot on :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Nice winner yesterday Bill, think the fav was poor value too on the face of it and was rightly left alone although to be fair it ran to bad to be true. Todays race should be interesting, pretty much agree on the figures but Singapore Reef wasnt put in the race last time and as you said is probably much better than the bare figs, Couer Brule could be the EW bet, ran ok behind your Anak. Keep it up mate:ok Thanks mate. Yes I was very surprised the way Singapore Reef was ridden LTO, hardly put in the race like you say - odd considering he was fairly well backed. Different tactics today and a very different result. Would've been over the moon had Couer Brule won, but it wasn't a bad effort in 4th. He is holding his form. Anak did beat that very comfortable so cannot complain. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Just watched the race' date=' they ran just as you predicted Billy - spot on :clap[/quote'] :ok Cheers Steve, although I didn't invest on the race I was pleased with how it panned out. Thought Najavo Nation ran better than the finishing distances tell us. Will be putting him up at least a stone after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Pistolet Noir 140 Barizan 140 Ultimate 132 Olofi 130 Rupestrain 127 Bocamix 122+ Screaming Brave 122 Causeway King 122 Mohanad 122 Riptide 122 Monsieur Jourdain 122 Stormy Weather 120+ Zarinski 120 Blazing Buck 120 Trumpstoo 120 Evening Sunset 120 Anak 119+ Seargeant Pink 119 Alazan 119 True Britannia 119 Peter Grimes 118 Marsool 118 Westlin' Winds 118 Helieorbea 117 Dark Oasis 117 George Nympton 116 Nicky Nutjob 116 Melange 116 Ravati 116 Orsippus 116 Singarpore Reef 115+ Shifting Gold 115 Hector's House 115 First Bay 115 Master Fong 115 Beidh Tine Anseo 114+ Space Telescope 114+ Googoobarabajagal 113 New Tricks 113 Prince Pippin 113 Royal Max 112 Kind Heart 112 Regal Lyric 110+ Veronicas Boy 110 Corredor Son 110x Warrior One 109 Gilded Age 108+ Shropshire Gold 107 Lakeman 105x Hallstat 105 Gwyre 105 Garter Knight 104 Blushing Soul 104 Tarawa Atoll 103 Supernoverre 102 Ciceron 102 Ashes Summer 101 Bandanaman 100 Halling Park 100 Fongoli 100 Coeur Brule 102 Strong Storm 100 Dream Risk 100 Toldedo Gold 95 Mr Prolific 90 Heredias 90 Me Voici 87 Beat The Devil 86 Princess Soroya 85 Toujours Souriante 85 Hydrant 82 Venture Capitalist 81 Bahkov 80 Ms Slocombe 80 Navajo Nation 71 Pezula 71 Some Time Good 67 Royal Premium 68 Carlito Brigante 55 Mt Kintyre 52+ Rio Gael 52 Lady Of Ashcott 52 Nayessence 51 Albulharith 50+ Pergamon 10 Bachelor Days 1 Six Of Clubs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Two cracking juvenile hurdles tomorrow. Musselburgh 12.40 Ratings after weight adjustments... Orsippus 116 Beidh Tine Anseo 114+ New Tricks 113 Regal Lyric 110+ Helieorbea 110 Melange 109 Ravati 109 Carlito Brigante 55 Nayessence 51 Barbarian FTO Kochanski FTO Again quite tight, just 7lb seperates the top-6 rated. May still play though, the two highly rated + horses plus the top-rated Orsippus interest most obviously. Will wait for the market to form. Newbury 1.00 Ratings after weight adjustments... Corredor Son 110x Prince Pippin 103 Princess Soraya 92 Me Voici 87 Beat The Devil 86 Mille Chief FTO Royal Mix FTO Icy Colt FTO Ginge asked an interesting question earlier on the thread; is it possibly to rate unraced hurdlers? I think it's possible to have a loose estimate. Mille Chief was brought down on his sole hurdle start so has yet to be rated. Based on his flat form, likely improvement for hurdles, and his run/form until he was brought down I would estimate his current rating at mid-120 with a +. This puts him over a stone clear of the next highest rated, and seeing as Mille Chief has a + and the 2nd-top rated Corredor Son has a x (due to signs of temperament FTO), Mille Chief is going to have to be very short for me not to get involved. Will confirm any bets when the market forms in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings I think it's possible to have a loose estimate. Mille Chief was brought down on his sole hurdle start so has yet to be rated. Based on his flat form, likely improvement for hurdles, and his run/form until he was brought down I would estimate his current rating at mid-120 with a +. This puts him over a stone clear of the next highest rated, and seeing as Mille Chief has a + and the 2nd-top rated Corredor Son has a x (due to signs of temperament FTO), Mille Chief is going to have to be very short for me not to get involved. Will confirm any bets when the market forms in the morning. Wasn't he brought down at the second last when absolutely cruising? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Wasn't he brought down at the second last when absolutely cruising? Yeah he was brought down by Bocamix. They would've finished 1-2. There was money for him weeks ago for the Triumph too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Yeah good races tomorrow Bill, regarding Mill Chief, saw the race and thought Bocamix was going every bit aswell, still the form looks good enough but cant tell how much the King horses have let me down lately! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Yeah good races tomorrow Bill' date=' regarding Mill Chief, saw the race and thought Bocamix was going every bit aswell, still the form looks good enough but cant tell how much the King horses have let me down lately![/quote'] Yes, like Bocamix he looks tailor-made for the hurdling game, and (again like Bocamix) doesn't have many flat miles on the clock. Very different to the likes of Screaming Brave, True Brittania etc. As the season goes on I want to be against the ex busy-flat types more and more obviously. That said, Katchit blows that theory out the water! Thankfully I haven't been too involved with King so far, I agree he has been a bit of a punters nightmare so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Two cracking juvenile hurdles tomorrow. Musselburgh 12.40 Ratings after weight adjustments... Orsippus 116 Beidh Tine Anseo 114+ New Tricks 113 Regal Lyric 110+ Helieorbea 110 Melange 109 Ravati 109 Carlito Brigante 55 Nayessence 51 Barbarian FTO Kochanski FTO Again quite tight, just 7lb seperates the top-7 rated. May still play though, the two highly rated + horses plus the top-rated Orsippus interest most obviously. Will wait for the market to form. Regal Lyric 7/2 Beidh Tine Anseo 4/1 Ravati 9/2 New Tricks 13/2 Helieorbea 15/2 Melange 9/1 Carlito Brigante 20/1 Orsippus 20/1 Barabarian 22/1 Kochanski 33/1 Nayessence 100/1 Just 7lb seperates the top 7 rated here so very tight. However due to the value I think Orsippus represents I cannot ignore. Will save with the two + horses. Orsippus 0.25pt E/W 20/1 (SJ, PP, WH, Bet365) Beidh Tine Anseo 0.6pt win 4/1 (PP) Regal Lyric 0.4pt win 7/2 (Bet365, WH) A risky bet given my findings but the potential reward is great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Newbury 1.00 Ratings after weight adjustments... Corredor Son 110x Prince Pippin 103 Princess Soraya 92 Me Voici 87 Beat The Devil 86 Mille Chief FTO Royal Mix FTO Icy Colt FTO Ginge asked an interesting question earlier on the thread; is it possibly to rate unraced hurdlers? I think it's possible to have a loose estimate. Mille Chief was brought down on his sole hurdle start so has yet to be rated. Based on his flat form, likely improvement for hurdles, and his run/form until he was brought down I would estimate his current rating at mid-120 with a +. This puts him over a stone clear of the next highest rated, and seeing as Mille Chief has a + and the 2nd-top rated Corredor Son has a x (due to signs of temperament FTO), Mille Chief is going to have to be very short for me not to get involved. Will confirm any bets when the market forms in the morning. Royal Mix 1/2 Prince Pippin 7/1 Me Voici 15/2 Corredor Sun 12/1 Beat The Devil 25/1 Icy Colt 50/1 Prince Soraya 100/1 Unfortunately Mille Chief is a non-runner. This leaves the door wide open for Royal Mix but it's priced accordingly. Top-rated Corredor Sun is a fair price but the x worries me. Prince Soraya looks over priced at 100/1 and I would probably play small on her if there were 8 runners, but the 7 going to post it makes for a less attractive E/W bet. No bet in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings This is a very interesting thread billy - nice one. A lot of work has went into it mate. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Regal Lyric 7/2 Beidh Tine Anseo 4/1 Ravati 9/2 New Tricks 13/2 Helieorbea 15/2 Melange 9/1 Carlito Brigante 20/1 Orsippus 20/1 Barabarian 22/1 Kochanski 33/1 Nayessence 100/1 Just 7lb seperates the top 7 rated here so very tight. However due to the value I think Orsippus represents I cannot ignore. Will save with the two + horses. Orsippus 0.25pt E/W 20/1 (SJ, PP, WH, Bet365) Beidh Tine Anseo 0.6pt win 4/1 (PP) Regal Lyric 0.4pt win 7/2 (Bet365, WH) A risky bet given my findings but the potential reward is great. Top-rated and main fancy 2nd at 20/1.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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