billy the punter Posted June 24, 2008 Author Share Posted June 24, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Everymanforhimself 60% of stake 4.5 betfair Strike Up The Band 40% of stake 8.8 (deductions from 9 due to NRs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Nice one Billy, good F/C too mate, well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 26, 2008 Author Share Posted June 26, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.30 Newcastle (Class 2) Benandonner doesn't know how to run a bad race and this year he has been better than ever. 2nd to Don't Panic in the Spring Mile, beat Royal Ascot winner Regal Parade (although Regal was most unlucky) NTO, 2nd to Lang Shining in the Spring Cup on his 3rd start and was just touched off my Charlie Farsnbarns LTO, the winner when on to be 5th in the Brigadier Gerard and the 3rd and 4th (Royal Power and Docofthebay) fought out the Royal Hunt Cup finish. Solid form all season, but as a result he has climed in the handicap - now rated 100, a stone higher than his win earlier in the season. He is sure to run more gallant races but will surely be vunerable to an improver now he is this high in the weights - after all he has been vunerable to improvers all season off lower marks, Don't Panic, Regal Parade, Lang Shining etc. Zero Tolerance has dropped to a fair mark and shaped as though coming back to form LTO, he been a NR at least twice in recent weeks though and it's now 50 days since that run. Massive chance if all is well. Tazeez ran two decent races last season but finished the year a maiden, wasn't sent to the sales however and John Gosden keeps him for another year at least. He bolted up FTO this season in a fair maiden. The 2nd Decarmeron has won, the 6th has won and the 3rd (beaten 10l) is rated 83. Tazeez has been given a mark of 95 and he could prove to be much better than that. Tazeez 90% of stake win 2.5 betfair Zero Tolerance 10% of stake win 10.5 betfair Tazeez/Zero Tolerance/Benandonner £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 26, 2008 Author Share Posted June 26, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 5.10 Great Leighs (Class 3) Heaven Knows is ALWAYS fancied - and I don't know why. Beaten 1st or 2nd fav on each start so far this season. It's certainly not done be any harm opposing over the past two seasons and I'll continue to. Not saying he cannot win, he just rarely represents any value. Moon Quest won FTO and the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th, 11th and 12th all come out and won - the 6th Mia's Boy a multiple winner. I was a little disappointed with him on his 2nd and final start last year but it turned out he lost nothing in defeat in what turned out to be a warm handicap at Leicester. 1st Hi Calypso (off 81) won a G2 and G3 after, now rated 108 2nd Mad Rush (off 85) beaten narrowly off 88 and 97 next two stars 3rd Eglevski 4th Moon Quest (off 87) Moon Quest runs here off the same mark, and if all is well with him after 365 day lay off then he is surely weighted to go close. Surface an unknown for him obviously. I said at the start of the year that Trans Siberian is well handicapped so it's no surprise that he has run 5 decent races from 5 starts so far this season. Up another two lbs since his last run and the handicapper is probably catching up with him now but is 1/1 on the A/W. Moon Quest 85% of stake 3.15 betfair Trans Siberian 15% of stake win 11.5 betfair Moon Quest/Trans Siberian £25 RFC Moon Quest/Safar Sundowner £15 RFC Moon Quest/Bid For Glory £10 RFC Moon Quest/Bid For Glory/Safari Sundowner/Trans Siberian £4.10 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 26, 2008 Author Share Posted June 26, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 1-2 Over 30/1 the exacta I think. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 26, 2008 Share Posted June 26, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) well done BTP :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 27, 2008 Author Share Posted June 27, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) The night card's are an improvement on today's although still very quiet on here. Perhaps end of the month blues playing its's part. Sure it will pick up again over the next day or so. 7.25 (Class 2) Appartently low(far) draws are advantageous when going in on the east side in sprints but we saw no evidence of a bias yesterday. For the 2yo race over 6f the they finished; Far Stands Stands Far Stands Stands Far Far Stands Stands Stands Stands Far Stands Far A pace check for this race is in order: >>>> >>> >>>>>> >>>> >>>>> >>> >>>>> >>> >>>>>>> NR >>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> There is no genuine early pacers here bar perhaps the Scandinavian runner in 17. Although there does seem to be more early higher. Hows She Cuttin could be key, she has been behind early lately but her best form is when up with the pace or leading - with the yard back in form and Holland booked I wouldn't be surprised if they changed tactics today and had her involved early. Being drawn 9 she could have a big say in how the race is run, depending on what side Holland decides to go. With the usual bias low, and the pace likely to be high here it may be a leveler - I don't know. The horses I fancied are drawn low, and if I'm honest the above is a big concern. As a precauition I will play horses from both sides. I really faniced Buachaill Dona (2) LTO at York but low numbers had little chance that day. On her previous start he ran a blinder to get so close at Chester after a nighmare draw. Definitely capable of winning a handicap off this sort of mark and all wins have come at the trip. If the draw is ok then he has to go close. I was disappointed in Dig Deep (1) last Friday, he is well handicapped at present and will strike soon. Will give him another chance back at 5f. Ishetoo is consistent and a return to 5f will suit. I mentioned Hows She Cuttin above, I liked her last year and she has run three decent races in defeat this year. The stable coming back to form yesterday is a bonus and she is ahead of the handicapper at the moment. Holland will have to make his mind up quick from the 9 box though. My one from a definite high draw will be River Falcon who will appreciate conditions and get a perfect lead from those around him. Buachaill Dona 35% of stake 13 betfair Hows She Cuttin 40% of stake 6.2 betfair Dig Deep 15% of stake 13 betfair River Falcon 10% of stake 17.5 betfair £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) After a slight hiccup or two late last week, had three winners from the last four bets (+5.93pts) plus two winning F/C's (+£1038) Hope I can keep it going today but the big Saturday handicaps have been very difficult over the past weeks. 3.20 Northumberland Plate - Newcastle Highland Legacy - Will appreciate Newcastle more than he did Chester. 4lb higher since his run in the Chester Cup but only 7lb higher that his runaway win FTO this year. Will appreciate the give underfoot. Double Banded - Possibly didn't get hom LTO in the Chester Cup and there is probably more to come from him, although is another that has gone up in the weights since. 4/5 on LH turf tracks. Bukit Tinggi - I have no idea why it's been said that he didn't stay at Ascot. He didn't lose by not staying, he lost due to Robinson taking it up too early. He doesn't find a lot in front and always stops. Besides he was only beaten 0.5l to blame it on stamina is a mis-read. Still improving (ability-wise) and if this doesn't come to soon (which is a real worry) then he should run another fine race. Bogside Theatre - Looked the likely winner LTO before Highland Legacy got into his stride and has a 6lb pull. Always liked this filly and I'm certain there is a decent prize in her. Extremely well handicaped on her 5th at Ponty last season, and that was on ground faster than ideal. Will like the going and should go well. Rationale - Little unlucky LTO at Epsom and worth a try at this sort of trip. Definitely well handicapped and I will be looking at his entries closely, as he may find the ground against him here. Highland Legacy 35% of stake 6.6 betfair Bukit Tinggi 25% of stake 8.4 betfair Bogside Theatre 25% of stake 16 betfair Double Banded 7.5% of stake 14.5 betfair Rationale 7.5% of stake 24 betfair Highland Legacy/Bukit Tinggi/Bogside Theatre £6.65 F/C Comb £4.15 T/C Comb Highland Legacy/Bukit Tinggi/Bogside Theatre/Double Banded/Rationale £3 F/C Comb (20 bets) £1.25 T/C Comb (60 bets) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.45 Newcastle (Class 2) >>> NR >>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>> >>> >>>>>>> >>> NR >>>> >>> NR >>>> >>>>> >>> >>> I think the highs could be at a disadvantage here and if the low numbers stick to their draws and they split then I think they will be a good couple of lengths clear at halfway, especially if Ingleby Arch goes left from the 8 box. I made Valery Borzov a good bet when winning at Thirsk and backed him to defy a 10lb hike LTO. He ran a fine race and was an unlucky loser as the going changed over night to heavy. Not only is he less effective on ground that soft, it brought the best out of the winner (Rising Shadow). The ground is no worse than soft here and although I'd be happier if it were a little quicker I'm hoping he'll act on it enough to win this. Think looks sure to blaze a trail (only front runner in the field) and will want all the catching. Valery Borzov 50% of stake win 7.4 betfair Valery Borzov 50% of stake place 2.16 betfair (1-2-3-4) 3.55 Newcastle (Class 2) Pace-check:>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>>>>> >>> >>>>> >>> >>>>>> >>>> >>> NR NR >>>>>>> >>> >>> >>> I have no idea why the Racing Post spotlight has Daaweitza in as 2nd favourite. I'll be very surprised if he is that close to the head of the market. He is double figures currently on betfair. 7 of his 8 wins have come at quirky, tight, turning tracks and even ignoring that his form looks below some of his rivals and he is the first to be scrubbed, for me. I napped Redford LTO at Ascot and he was cruising two out but dropped out tamely. A real head scratcher and I'm guessing it was due to him not letting himself down on the fast ground. He is definitely worth another chance and remains an interesting prospect. Lone Wolfe is going to be interesting in the coming weeks I think he is well handicapped off 92. The ground may be against him here but he is a massive price. Royal Power went close for me in the Hunt Cup and he looks like he is back to his best. Up 4lb here but hopeful he can win a nice prize this season. 7f could be ideal for him although the ground is a worry. He is fit, well and I'd be confident on good ground. Royal Power 55% of stake 8.2 betfair Redford 35% of stake 3.05 betfair Lone Wolfe 10% of stake 50 betfair £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) I've saved on Baby Strange who is still well handicapped. Too late for thread purposes obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Valery Borzov 2/5 (1/12 for a place) in running, but out the frame!!!! Went off bit too quick on this ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.40 Newmarket (Class 3) I've backed Maghya on each of her handicap starts and she has such a likeable nature. She doesn't know when she is beaten and runs on to the death. I think she'll turn the tables with Princess Taylor here and she has much more potential than her conquorer that day. Baby Houseman was weak in the market for her debut but still run out a ready winner. Handicap mark about right I suppose but an unknown quantity obviously. Mixed messages from the form so far but she did win easy. Star Of Gibraltar doesn't look good enough, Steam Cuisine doesn't look the same horse this season so it leaves Aphordisia as the only danger in my opinion. Maghya 60% of stake 3.7 betfair Baby Houseman 40% of stake 4.1 betfair Maghya/Baby Houseman £35 RFC Maghya/Baby Houseman/Aphrodisia £5 F/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 28, 2008 Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Valery Borzov 2/5 (1/12 for a place) in running, but out the frame!!!! Went off bit too quick on this ground. Needed it for a few quid today after doubling with Utmost respect. I can see how it could that over 5f, but a stiff 6f found it out today. Still one to keep on side IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.40 Newmarket (Class 3) I've backed Maghya on each of her handicap starts and she has such a likeable nature. She doesn't know when she is beaten and runs on to the death. I think she'll turn the tables with Princess Taylor here and she has much more potential than her conquorer that day. Baby Houseman was weak in the market for her debut but still run out a ready winner. Handicap mark about right I suppose but an unknown quantity obviously. Mixed messages from the form so far but she did win easy. Star Of Gibraltar doesn't look good enough, Steam Cuisine doesn't look the same horse this season so it leaves Aphordisia as the only danger in my opinion. Maghya 60% of stake 3.7 betfair Baby Houseman 40% of stake 4.1 betfair Maghya/Baby Houseman £35 RFC Maghya/Baby Houseman/Aphrodisia £5 F/C Comb 1-2-3 and as expected Maghya reversing the form well with Princess Taylor. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jono333 Posted June 28, 2008 Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 1-2-3 and as expected Maghya reversing the form well with Princess Taylor. :) well done Billy, great punting yet again! Could you tell me how to do your combo's on betfair please? (Thats if you do them on their?) Cheers Billy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2008 Author Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Thanks mate. I actually do the exactas (F/Cs) on the tote and the T/C's on another account. Usually the exactas pay more than the CSF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 28, 2008 Share Posted June 28, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Good winner + forecast Billy :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 29, 2008 Author Share Posted June 29, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.40 Windsor (Class 3) Porthole is so hard to weigh up, he did win with ease LTO, but he beat little. He probably showed a similar level of form to what he showed on his debut last season when 3rd in a decent Newmarket maiden. His mark of 88 doesn't scream leniency, seems about right. At the price I'm overlooking him. I was very sweet on Swinging Sixties LTO and was shocked he didn't play a hand in the finish at York. He looked like he'd come on for the run when making a winning debut at Newmarket and I thought his mark of 86 was a winnable one. The 2nd at Newmarket, ran well NTO off 82 and will surely be winning soon off that mark. the 5l 3rd was odds on NTO but failed to act at Brighton and the run should be ignored. The 9l 4th bolted up off 70 at Windsor and looks an 80 horse all day long. They were a distance clear of the remainder. So although not over lenient I thought given the expected improvement, he'd be able to win off a mark of 86 . I prepared to forgive the run as it was at York. He was quite keen in rear that day and Windsor should suit more and he'll know a little more this time too. The yard had a handicap winner here on Monday and they never seem to be out of form. Dropped a pound also. Meydan Dubai had a consistent 2yo campaign without winning. He started the season on a mark of 89 and was a pleasing never nearer 5th to Dantulm over a mile at Newmarket. Disappointed on firm going over the same C&D NTO when yard wasn't firing. Found 7f at Epsom too sharp NTO and was hampered, wasn't disgraced however. He did take the eye last time out however and I mentioned him in my Royal Ascot overview. He was 9th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (6th on the far side) beaten less than 6l. He again looked in need of further than the 7f and didn't get a totally clear passage. Although he had a welter weight not many 3yo run well in the big Royal Ascot handicaps so this run cannot be ignored. He has been dropped another 4lb for that run and runs off 84 now. He is upped in trip, but to 1m2f - so staying has to be taken on trust, although running style over 1m and stamina on the sire's side suggest it's a definite possibility he'll get this trip. Stable flying at the minute (although just 5% S/R here) and he must surely find a race soon. Will chance him here and wouldn't be put off by a defeat, think it could pay to follow him over his next few runs. Swinging Sixties 70% of stake 3.15 betfair (although it's possible this could be bigger on course) Meydan Dubai 30% of stake 11.5 betfair £50 RFC 4.50 Windsor (Class 3) Guilded Warrior is sure to be popular after running well in the Victoria Cup and going close from a wide draw at Chester LTO. He did manage to pop out and lead early from that wide draw so the run could be over rated. I looking elsewhere at the price though, especially under Fergus Sweeney. Hucking Heist is an unbeaten unknown quantity. Form of the win not great but yard's 3yo's don't usually win FTO so improvement can almost be guarateed - if all is well after a long lay off obviously. Mark of 77 not that harsh given the expected improvement and with yard flying and Spencer booked isn't going to be ignored by me. Will keep a close eye on the betting though due to his long break. Twilight Star is a horse I've backed a few times this year and I was rewarded when he won at a big price at Sandown. Still well handicapped (2lb higher than that win) and I'm ignoring his last run - I wasn't happy at all with the ride from Durcan, he gave the horse no cover, saw too much daylight and didn't run his race as a result - is much better than that. Hucking Heist 50% of stake 4.4 betfair Twilight Star 50% of stake 9 betfair Hucking Heist/Twilight Star £26 RFC Hucking Heist/Twilight Star/Guilded Warrior £8 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 29, 2008 Author Share Posted June 29, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.40 Windsor (Class 3) Porthole is so hard to weigh up, he did win with ease LTO, but he beat little. He probably showed a similar level of form to what he showed on his debut last season when 3rd in a decent Newmarket maiden. His mark of 88 doesn't scream leniency, seems about right. At the price I'm overlooking him. I was very sweet on Swinging Sixties LTO and was shocked he didn't play a hand in the finish at York. He looked like he'd come on for the run when making a winning debut at Newmarket and I thought his mark of 86 was a winnable one. The 2nd at Newmarket, ran well NTO off 82 and will surely be winning soon off that mark. the 5l 3rd was odds on NTO but failed to act at Brighton and the run should be ignored. The 9l 4th bolted up off 70 at Windsor and looks an 80 horse all day long. They were a distance clear of the remainder. So although not over lenient I thought given the expected improvement, he'd be able to win off a mark of 86 . I prepared to forgive the run as it was at York. He was quite keen in rear that day and Windsor should suit more and he'll know a little more this time too. The yard had a handicap winner here on Monday and they never seem to be out of form. Dropped a pound also. Meydan Dubai had a consistent 2yo campaign without winning. He started the season on a mark of 89 and was a pleasing never nearer 5th to Dantulm over a mile at Newmarket. Disappointed on firm going over the same C&D NTO when yard wasn't firing. Found 7f at Epsom too sharp NTO and was hampered, wasn't disgraced however. He did take the eye last time out however and I mentioned him in my Royal Ascot overview. He was 9th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (6th on the far side) beaten less than 6l. He again looked in need of further than the 7f and didn't get a totally clear passage. Although he had a welter weight not many 3yo run well in the big Royal Ascot handicaps so this run cannot be ignored. He has been dropped another 4lb for that run and runs off 84 now. He is upped in trip, but to 1m2f - so staying has to be taken on trust, although running style over 1m and stamina on the sire's side suggest it's a definite possibility he'll get this trip. Stable flying at the minute (although just 5% S/R here) and he must surely find a race soon. Will chance him here and wouldn't be put off by a defeat, think it could pay to follow him over his next few runs. Swinging Sixties 70% of stake 3.15 betfair (although it's possible this could be bigger on course) Meydan Dubai 30% of stake 11.5 betfair That's why I hate York. Horses do not act there and leave York form behind, and horses that do win there fail to show it elsewhere. Thank God I treat York form with the contempt it deserves. Weird betting for this when he was 13/8, 7/4 he was 3.2 on betfair. Then once the race started he went straight to 2.2 and was odds on after about 3 furlongs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 29, 2008 Author Share Posted June 29, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.50 Windsor (Class 3) Guilded Warrior is sure to be popular after running well in the Victoria Cup and going close from a wide draw at Chester LTO. He did manage to pop out and lead early from that wide draw so the run could be over rated. I looking elsewhere at the price though, especially under Fergus Sweeney. Hucking Heist is an unbeaten unknown quantity. Form of the win not great but yard's 3yo's don't usually win FTO so improvement can almost be guarateed - if all is well after a long lay off obviously. Mark of 77 not that harsh given the expected improvement and with yard flying and Spencer booked isn't going to be ignored by me. Will keep a close eye on the betting though due to his long break. Twilight Star is a horse I've backed a few times this year and I was rewarded when he won at a big price at Sandown. Still well handicapped (2lb higher than that win) and I'm ignoring his last run - I wasn't happy at all with the ride from Durcan, he gave the horse no cover, saw too much daylight and didn't run his race as a result - is much better than that. Hucking Heist 50% of stake 4.4 betfair Twilight Star 50% of stake 9 betfair Hucking Heist/Twilight Star £26 RFC Hucking Heist/Twilight Star/Guilded Warrior £8 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb That was nice. They were 30 and 12 after one furlong gone! Hucknig Heist was 7 on betfair when only 7/2 on course - like I said in my post, watch the betting - was pulled up basically. Hmmmm. Twilight Star lost ALL chance at the start getting left a good 6/8 lengths. Done well to get so close I suppose. Knew the fav was vunerable and with 4 crossing the line in a bunch the race was there for the taking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) First bet of the week on here as there have been no decent Upper Class handicaps. Although there has been plenty of good bets in other races this week. 3.10 (Class 3) Master Of Arts is a typical Mark Prescott improver, he is never going to be value and sure to be beaten at a short price at least once very soon. If it's your thing to back this sort of horse then fine - you would be in front on this particular animal for sure. However it isn't my style and although I was wrong to take him on LTO and can't jump on the bandwagon now and again I'm looking for value elsewhere. Axiom looked decent last year for Ed Dunlop and I expect him to improve this year as he is now trained by Luca Cumani. I have different opinion regarding the two trainers shall we say. I backed him for his intended seasonal debut but there was a problem in the stalls and he was withdrawn. I missed him for his actual seasonal debut as I had a good day (Oaks Day) and didn't want to get involved in the night racing backing a horse FTO. He won obviously. Always the way. A 7lb rise for that win but I've always thought he has the potential to make light of this sort of mark. I'm hoping the showers come at Haydock as that will increase his chances. Axiom 100% of stake 4.5 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.20 Sandown (Class 3) Crimson Fern has improved no end this season and has shown enough recently to suggest her improvement hasn't stopped. She is rated 80 now but won well off 75 here on her penultimate start and ran a fine race in defeat LTO after playing up beforehand. Good draw again and I wouldn't be surprised if she went close. I said last week that Striker Up The Band was well handicapped at present: Strike Up The Band seems to have been around for ages but is only five! He has dropped to a career low mark but still retains plenty of ability. He finished a respectable 8th in the Prix de l'Abbaye as recent as October and was a close 5th in a decent handicap at Catterick less than a fortnight later off a mark of 100. He is current rated just 91 and I presume he will hit form very soon. He can be forgiven a poor run FTO this year and on his 2nd start he was 4th of 7 to Sonny Red, his chances in his next three starts have been ruined by poor draws. At Chester behind Bertoliver he was drawn 13/14 - and impossible task and did well to finish 7/14, at York it was the day they overwatered and low numbers were given no chance (remeber Tombi motoring down the stands rail) and LTO at Epsom he lost a length or two tacking over from the 7 stall. He did 3rd best of those drawn low. He was just touched off at Beverley and he hasn't been raised for that effort. The draw isn't as kind here but he remains interesting over the coming weeks. Sohraab is on a career high mark now after his win at York LTO but that race has worked out very well and that was a career best effort anyway. He is probably still improving and a 5lb rise is fair given how the race worked out after. Sundae is on my list of horses to follow this year but he had a set back in the Spring and looked in need of his first run. It was a much better performance LTO when 4th to Musaalem. He has massive potential and looks sure to be better than this grade in time. His Ayr Silver Cup run was what caught my eye last season and that has worked out well - very well handicapped on that effort. Hope this is enough of a test though. Playful put in a fair effort LTO and she could be well handicapped if her previous marks are reliable - they were based on 2yo form and not on handicaps. Sundae 40% of stake 6 betfair Sohraab 30% of stake 3.95 betfair Strike Up The Band 30% of stake 7.6 betfair Sohraab/Sundae/Strike Up The Band/Crimson Fern £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Can't believe I left her out. Oh well. Just couldn't back four at the odds. A pathetic ride from Quinn on Sohraab. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.35 Sandown (Class 2) Humungous isn't easy to win with but has run some decent races in big handicaps. 2nd in the Golden Mile off a 2lb higher mark and run a cracker in the Cambridgshire to finish 8th (drawn wrong) off a 1lb even higher. Well backed for his seasonal debut but didn't show behind Zaahid, but a much improved effort in the Royal Hunt Cup to finish a staying on 8th after being slighty short of room just over a furlong out. Worth a try at 10f again as he was off the bridle early in the Hunt Cup. Gulf Express and Prince Forever have both been the bookies friends this year and I see no reason for that to change. I wrote this about Snoqualmie Boy LTO: Snoqualmie Boy - Inconsistent but capable on his day. Well handicapped on the best of his form. Runs for his 4th trainer in his last five races. Didn't show on first run for new yard LTO despite being backed. Both wins and best form is at 10f 4131674264, from the eight defeats one was on his racecourse debut, one was in a Group 2 and two were in Group 1's. Excluding the Group races and his debut his 10f turf form in the UK reads 1142. Could spring a surprise if he still retains his ability, we just don't know - his last run wouldn't suggest so but that was on A/W and we was beaten at 4/6 on the dirt on his last try. The price could be big enough to take the gamble on whether or not he retains any of his ability. He ran a decent race to finish 6th (dropped 4lb here) and he will probably run another good race as he has conidtions to suit again. Porbably run well without winning though. I backed Kaateb LTO but saved on the F/C. Although he looked to have the race won he probably ran into another decent type. He was unlucky FTO this year and definitely has the potential to make this mark pay. Visor fitted today, which isn't a surprise, it may do the trick. It's not often I back a Prescott horse but Caravel is a horse I really like. He impressed me last year winning his final five starts. Shot up the weights as a result (65 => 91) but that is more than fair. I think he can improve futher and I'm certain that he will a 100 horse before long. His defeats of Jamboretta and Fragrancy read very well - they are both rated in the 90s now, proving the Caravel is still the right side of the handicapper. Fitness an issue obviously. He is my idea of the Magnet Cup winner at the moment too. Pretty confident here - famous last words. Caravel 50% of stake 4.9 betfair Kaateb 30% of stake 5.1 betfair Humungous 10% of stake 15 betfair Snoqualmie Boy 10% of stake 12 betfair £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Was certain I'd collect here, as stated above, little disappointed I didn't cap it with a F/C. Only 0.5pt profit but I staked much higher than normal for this race. Caravel will win more races this year, will be interesting NTO. Snoqualmie Boy ran well without winning, as predicted. Humumgous ran on well into 5th. My four selections all finished in the first six home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.40 toteswinger Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) My sort of race. The inclusion of two 3yos at the head of the market confuses things slightly though. Twenty-six 3yo's have run in this over the past ten years and from those; 1 has won 3 have been placed 22 have been unplaced Obviously a 3yo is going to have to be decent to take this, but to be fair Fifteen Love and Masaalek are. Fifteen Love come back to form LTO when winning at Ascot (2lb worse off with Masaalek), he had some great 2yo form (2nd to Rio De La Plata and beat Collection) and was well handicapped on it after running poorly in his previous two starts. They'd need to be bigger in the betting for me to include them though. Jack Junior is no longer the best maiden in training as he finally got his head in front LTO. He ran with credit on his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th start in Group races but was beaten fav after that in a maiden - some unkind things were said about him after that but in fact it turned out to be a fair maiden. He is being campaigned at a more realisitic level here and if he can reproduce some of his form (he can't have been flattered every time after all) then he has a chance. Stable flying, their single figure priced runners so far this month have run 1211621. I backed Gold Sovereign LTO and wrote this: Quote: Gold Sovereign was impressive when winning on his debut at Lingfield in September. He was over 2l clear of Axiom who was well clear of the remainder. Axiom won his maiden and bolted up FTO this year off a mark of 80. He started fav on his 2nd start, a 10f handicap at Newmarket. He ran a fine race to finish 3rd (useful Eradicate and First Buddy behind). I think the race may've come a little quick, his rivals were much more experienced and apparently he didn't handle the dip too well. I backed him I can remember thinking inexperience beat him. The RP suggest that his mark is a little harsh, I'm not so sure I think the mark is fair and coupled with the fact that he has improvement in him, he should make his presence felt this season. I spoke last week about Godolphin's year on year improvement in handicaps and already this year they are 75% (3/4), with the loser given a shocking ride. Over the moon that McEvoy isn't aboard and is without doubt the one in the line up that has the ability to be above this class. I've taken over and around 2/1 about him already, but he is still a backable price. He bolted up that day and was raised 9lb by the handicapper. Godolphin are now 63% (5/8) for older horse handicaps this year, continuing their year on year improvement in that field. Gold Sovereign has a massive chance of taking the hefty rise in this stride and could be above handicap class. Flipando is a horse I think will go close in a big handicap off his current mark sooner or later. He has the right man (Spencer) on board for his style of running and run well despite not getting the run of the race LTO. Gold Sovereign 40% of stake win 7.4 betfair Gold Sovereign 45% of stake place 2.26 betfair* Jack Junior 7.5% of stake 28 betfair Flipando 7.5% of stake 16 betfair £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb * estimated price, will amend if need be. 5.05 Emerald Steel Handicap (Class 3) Main Aim and Kalahari Gold won divisions of the same maiden at Salisbury last month and have both been given a mark of 85. The 2nd to Kalahari Gold has come out and won and there were two horses (questionably) rated 85 and 83 out the frame. Both did well to win but I got the impression Main Aim would prove to be the better horse. He was well fancied for his race (5/4 on), the 2nd is now rated 80 and the rating is justified. I feel the handicapper has taken a real chance by giving Main Aim a mark as low as 85. I wouldn't be surprised if Nezami left his form of last time behind and showed the form on his penultimate start - he is overpriced here. Opus Maximus has been a little in and out this year but he can be competitive off this mark and I think he'll be winning again soon. He would've been closer with a run LTO. I think 7f is his trip but this could be a touch warm for him. Main Aim 75% of stake 2.4 betfair Kalahari Gold 15% of stake 8.2 betfair Opus Maximus 10% of stake 17 betfair Main Aim/Kalahari Gold/Opus Maximus/Nezami £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.35 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) I said at the start of the season that Eradicate could have a decent year and so far he has done well. Highly weighted now granted but is Hamilton win reads well. Was a big drifter when disappointing LTO at Epsom but back to 12f here - which I believe is his trip. Before Mad Rush's first start this season I spoke at great lengths about how well handicapped he was. His mark was very lenient given his handicap form. After two runs he is 14lb higher and still favourite for a big handicap. So you could say I was right. ;) He has to go down as one of the unluckiest horses around, he perhaps should've beaten the well handicapped Punjabi FTO this year and was raised 9lb for finishing 2nd. He again found one just too good at Royal Ascot and again has to put up with a hike (5lb). All this after two narrown defeats in both handicaps last season. Despite the rises he still has a massive chance in this. Luca Cumani's last three runners in this have finished 211 and I remember Zaralaska taking this back in 1997 after running in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot - the race Mad Rush ran in LTO. Camps Bay, Penvensey and Young Mick come into the reckoing with pulls for running close to Mad Rush in that Ascot race. Young Mick makes most appeal at the prices and his form could be on the up once again. I backed Pippa Greene on his three handicap runs last season and he won twice and run ok in the November handicap. It wasn't a bad reappearance in May at York and he has been dropped 2lb since. The best handicapped horse in the field IMO and must go close if all is well after a 50 day lay off. It's also a worry that we've only seen him once since November. The expected rain would suit also. Mad Rush 50% of stake 4/1 Hills Pippa Greene 40% of stake 9.8 betfair Eradicate 5% of stake 28 betfair Young Mick 5% of stake 25 betfair £6.65 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb Mad Rush/Pippa Greene £10 RFC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.40 Gold Sovereign is a NR. Due to deductions the bet reads: Flipando 7.5% of stake 14 betfair Jack Junior 7.5% of stake 23 betfair I'll add the same amount for each on the place side: Flipando 7.5% of stake 2.96 betfair Jack Junior 7.5% of stake 3.65 betfair I'm taking the NR and just letting a portion of the stake run. I'm not having a big bet and not upping my original stakes - they were only savers after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.45 (Class 3) Muhajaar won well LTO but he was able to take advantage of a good draw where his market rivals couldn't. He acts with cut and although the mark isn't that harsh I'm not sure it's as lenient as some think. Lord Sandicliffe will also appreciate the going and I thought he could've been closer to Van Bossed FTO this year. I was a bit disappointed with him LTO - worth giving a chance to here though at the price, on the ground. I backed Marvellous Value at York LTO when was 3rd to the gamble Hamish McGonagall. I said the winner only won as it was York and so far that has proved correct. So far he has failed to win but the 2nd has won in a higher class. So typical of York form - most punters don't realise how bad the place is. He was prevously unbeaten (both wins with cut) and both wins worked out well. He is 3lb higher for his 3rd at York (15lb higher than his win 2nd time out) but the race at York has worked out ok like I say and there could be further improvement from Marvellous Value - especially on this surface. Marvellous Value 60% of stake 5.5 betfair Muhajaar 20% of stake 5.3 betfair Lord Sandicliffe 20% of stake 26 betfair £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Another late betfair drifter (Marvellous Value 5.5 => 9 at one stage) runs below par. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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