The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.10 Nottingham No time for a write-up I'm afraid. I just think the favourite is a little shorter than what it should be. Backed Mekong Melody LTO and although this is tougher there should be more to come from her. Toto Skylachy looks handicapped to win a nice 3yo handicap. Silver Rime was impressive at Windsor and well handicapped on that form. There could be more to come from Lindelaan now she has her head in front. Mekong Melody 20% of stake 28 betfair Toto Skylachy 30% of stake 11.5 betfair Silver Rime 30% of stake 7 betfair Lindelaan 20% of stake 6 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 7.40 Hamilton Gunfighter impressed me when carrying my money last season and he came back to form LTO after finding the ground too soft on his reappearance. He looked an unlucky loser, finishing well after a slow start and runs here off a 1lb higher mark. Fully effective over a stiff 6f, his handicap form over trip under a mile on fast ground reads 1113 - the 3rd being the race above. Gunfighter 100% of stake 5.1 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) Intrepid Jack 50% of stake 14/1 gen Machinist 40% of stake 25/1 coral Genki 10% of stake 16/1 gen I will probably play again on the day. Those on my shortlist that may not make it; Hinton Admiral Border Music Cape Valery Borzov Express Wish Gift Horse

Already played 1pt on the ante-post (see post further up) but going to back the remainder of my short-list laying another point out (was planning to go in again on the day). I don't actually see many (if ANY) of them running - but as they are now doing NR no bet there is no risk and they will be a lot shorter if they run. Hinton Admiral 20% of stake 33/1 coral Border Music 10% of stake 20/1 coral Cape 10% of stake 33/1 hills Valery Borzov 20% of stake 20/1 coral Express Wish 20% of stake 40/1 hills Gift Horse 20% of stake 33/1 coral I don't usually play ante-post on the Wokingham so it'll be interesting to see what sort of book I have come raceday. It may turn out that similar prices are availble on betfair on the day. :\

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Had a massive problem with my laptop over the past week or so - haven't posted as much, will do a summary soon. Gutted about Gunfighter refusing to race obviously. Had good week with plenty of winners but although I've posted a few winnners would've posted more had I had 100% access - sorry. New laptop coming tomorrow! :nana Don't like using betfair on the phone so played a lot of cash betting in shops for the first time in nearly two years. Tried a shop I hadn't used regulary before, lasted a matter of days - was barred on Wednesday. :lol Still it was an improvement on the two days I lasted the last time I used a shop in 2006. I know these guys have to make a living and I have no problem with such decisions, BUT they think anyone who wins is "at it" to some extent, be it info or arbing or whatever, they can't have it that it is possible to be a judge. Just take it gracefully when you're beaten, like the punters have to! Thankfully back to 100% on betfair come the weekend. On with Friday's action. The staying race at York is a Class 3 in name only. These aren't high class handicappers so not playing. The sprint looks too tough. That leaves just the 6.20 at Goodwood, the only other race to qualify for this thread. 6.20 Goodwood One of only two course winners in the field Our Faye ran a cracker LTO at Epsom. I was a big fan of her last year and backed her numerous times. Well handicapped at the moment (+3lb future) runs here off the same mark she won off last when beating Dark Missile. She was the best of those drawn high at Epsom on Derby day and ran on well to run the winner close. Obviously 6f here is on the sharp side but this is a very weak Class 3 and she doesn't have to be at her best to take this. Tia Mia is useful and she could go close if she copes with racing against her elders. Our Faye 85% of stake 3.25 betfair Tia Mia 15% of stake 7.4 betfair £50 RFC Not a great deal of money about on betfair at the moment, and if I don't have time to post updated prices in the morning then these will have to be settled at SP.

[mlmrob]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Great Call Billy. Lovely price too.:clap

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 1.55 Sandown (Class 3) Not the greatest Class 3 in the world as I believe the top four in have been harshly treated of late. They are betting 8/11 the front two (Premier Danseur/Maxwill) and I think that is a little short for what they have achieved. Blue Spartan stepped up on two encouraging efforts to get off the mark LTO, the handicappers hasn't taken any chances with his mark but it's likely he'll improve again. Stock Market hated the ground LTO and is worth any chance on this surface at a big price. Legislation has shown enough to suggest a handicap is within his capibilities and he looks overpriced. Seattle Storm looked an unlucky loser at Yarmouth, and despite winning a maiden in the meantime he runs here off just a 2lb higher mark. Blue Spartan 50% of stake 4.6 betfair Stock Market 20% of stake 18 betfair Seattle Storm 20% of stake 17 betfair Legislation 10% of stake 30 betfair £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.30 Sandown (Class 3) Think this will be where Adversity finally comes good before going on to better things. I backed him FTO this year thinking he was a well handicapped horse. His maiden form suggests he is and he is thought of as a potential pattern race performer. I was a little disappointed when he finished 2nd but he was a big drifter in the market that day and perhaps need the run. Ran as well as possible from a nightmare draw at Chester LTO but no such worries here and if he is going to fulfill his potential he has to win this. Adversity 100% of stake 11/10 hills

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.50 York (Class 2) I think that Granston is well handicapped and backed him LTO. He was given a shocking ride by McEvoy and was a most unlucky loser. He is only 2lb higher than his win early season and is still well in on some of last season's form. Robert Winston takes over from Coco today. The winners are really starting to come for John Dunlop now and I expect Free Offer to improve on his 9th FTO at Newmarket. Should be more to come from him this year. Will give Fishforcompliments one final chance as I think he backed off from the headgear LTO. Granston 60% of stake 5 betfair Free Offer 30% of stake 7.4 betfair Fishforcompliments 10% of stake 9.8 betfair £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.00 York (Class 2) Deadly Silence got within 5l of Tartan Bearer on his debut so it was no surprise he bolted up in his maiden. Interesting now handicapping but the 2nd (Warringah) in the Tartan Bearer race was given a mark 12lb below Deadly Silence's so he could've been better treated. Inspector Clouseau is a horse with potential and will appreciate the step up in trip, would probably find easier races in future though. Given that he loooked like he'd come on for the run Swinging Sixties did well to battle to victory against the potentially useful West With The Wind. His mark is fair and given that I expect him to come on a fair bit he must go close. Swinging Sixties 60% of stake 2.6 betfair Deadly Surprise 30% of stake 3.9 betfair Inspector Clouseau 10% of stake 19.5 betfair £14 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Swinging Sixties/Deadly Silence £8 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

1.55 Sandown (Class 3) Not the greatest Class 3 in the world as I believe the top four in have been harshly treated of late. They are betting 8/11 the front two (Premier Danseur/Maxwill) and I think that is a little short for what they have achieved. Blue Spartan stepped up on two encouraging efforts to get off the mark LTO, the handicappers hasn't taken any chances with his mark but it's likely he'll improve again. Stock Market hated the ground LTO and is worth any chance on this surface at a big price. Legislation has shown enough to suggest a handicap is within his capibilities and he looks overpriced. Seattle Storm looked an unlucky loser at Yarmouth, and despite winning a maiden in the meantime he runs here off just a 2lb higher mark. Blue Spartan 50% of stake 4.6 betfair Stock Market 20% of stake 18 betfair Seattle Storm 20% of stake 17 betfair Legislation 10% of stake 30 betfair £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

Was pretty sure there would be a turn up here (why I backed three outsiders), picked the wrong ones however. The early bird price of the front two 8/11 bemused me.

[stewartd14]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

2.30 Sandown (Class 3) Think this will be where Adversity finally comes good before going on to better things. I backed him FTO this year thinking he was a well handicapped horse. His maiden form suggests he is and he is thought of as a potential pattern race performer. I was a little disappointed when he finished 2nd but he was a big drifter in the market that day and perhaps need the run. Ran as well as possible from a nightmare draw at Chester LTO but no such worries here and if he is going to fulfill his potential he has to win this. Adversity 100% of stake 11/10 hills

That was a mightily unlucky race there Billy, Adversity never got a run and as a result, never got competitive. One to keep on the right side of I think though. :eyes

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Yes very unlucky so far today. 3.25 York I took on Ancien Regime LTO as I thought the very fast ground at Newmarket may've been against it. We won despite it, and despite hanging. Must have a chance of following up as the rain as taken the edge off the ground. Striking Spirit ran a fair race in a big field at Newmarket and looks to have got in here at a nice weight. Ancien Regime 70% of stake 6.6 betfair Striking Spirit 30% of stake 9.4 betfair £50 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Nightmare day. Like I've said before, I find York a total joke to be honest. Results happen there that wouldn't happen at any other G1 course. Really need to be careful there and listen to the my own advice.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Results happen there that wouldn't happen at any other G1 course.

Why is that?

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) It does seem more difficult to come from behind in all but the most strongly run races at York. As well as that, the straight course favours those racing in the centre. But taking it in to account I don't find it anymore difficult than anywhere else Billy. Is there a reason for your dislike or is it something you can not put your finger on?

[bowles10]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Nightmare day. Like I've said before, I find York a total joke to be honest. Results happen there that wouldn't happen at any other G1 course. Really need to be careful there and listen to the my own advice.

I have the same problem & noticed it when the ascot meeting was held there. The ground was poor & results didnt seem right. For me its about results & York seems to be my worst performing track when i look back so not sure what it is.

[RussP]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Completely agree Ginge about the hold up types. Irrespective of form, etc, I always look for a prominent racer at York. One of the difficulties in sprint races is the fact there is hardly any draw bias so one of the biggest factors is ruling horses out is negated immediately.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Even taking it into account the fact that is favours front-runners, after all I do factor that, it is still a poor track for me. Like bowles I cannot put my finger on it as such, it's just based on years of average results. My only losing Ascot in recent years was at York - the firm, heavy in places going on the 3rd/4th day should've resulted in a cancelled meeting. I just think it tracks springs more shock results than other top tracks, Hamish McGanogal winning at the Dante meeting and Miletary Power winning today are prime examples. You can turn the formbook inside out, upside down and they still can't win. But they did, at York - they will not repeat the performances and I expect the beaten rivals to be better animals in the future. Even Brigadier Gerard lost his only race there. Nuff said. ;)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Although I've had a great week finacially I've lost a little ground on this thread so would be nice to get things back on track today. 3.25 Doncaster (Class 3) I backed Musaalem FTO this year and he was impressive, he is a horse to follow this year and I was on his when he was pulled out on Derby day. He'd be close to evens in this grade if this were over 7f but the step back to 6f is going to be no problem. He wanted to go quicker early in the race LTO and trainer comments over the winter suggested a crack at this trip. Like others on PL today I believe Malcheek is over priced. I was planning to include him LTO when he was a NR in the race that Rising Shadow won (due to the changing ground). Ran well from a low draw at York LTO and his run FTO worked out ok too. Sundae is a horse I'm interested in this year but he had a set back in the Spring and was disappointing despite being backed LTO. Musaalem 90% of stake 2/1 lads Malcheek 10% of stake 34 betfair Musaalem/Malcheek/Sundae/Orpenindeed £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) And NO - I don't miss York! :lol All four combo horses in the first six home.

[mlmrob]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Well done today BTP. This may give food for thought at York http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knavesmire

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) The ghost of Dick Turpin making sure punters are still robbed regulary! :)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Royal Ascot Tuesday Ascot Stakes (Class 2) Just the one handicap on day one and the 2m4f Ascot Stakes is possibly the toughest of all the Royal Ascot handciaps. I'll be going to war with over a 1/4 of the fileld on my side here and the short list are Bukit Tinggi, Som Tala, Mamlook, Legend Erry, Clear Reef, and Tears Of A Clown. Bukit Tinggi is a horse I have selected on every occasion this season (211) and backed a few times last season. I always knew he had potential and finally (after being gelded) he is starting to show it. He is 16lb higher than he was at the start of the season but he started the season off a lower mark than he should've due to him throwing a few races away last season. He showed the ability of an 80 horse last season so I still believe there is more to come despite now being rated 87. Value for more than his winning margin LTO and I hope Robinson holds onto him a little longer here than he did at York. I backed Som Tala in this last year and he was very unlucky when 3rd to Full House (such a shame Hugh Bowman doesn't ride here anymore, I could do with a laugh). I gave up on Som Tala later in the season after some poor efforts. I decided to give him another chance in the Chester Cup and he ran a fine race narrowly going down to Bulwark. He seems to have come back to form and definitely stays the trip. However has been harshly treated by the handicapper. 12lb higher than his last win (with only a handful of decent runs since) and 6lb higher than when placed LTO in the Chester Cup. I just can't see how he should be running off a clear career mark based on his form since his last win in Sept 2006. Martin Pipe won this once or twice and David runs a typical type (fresh from a fair season hurdling) in Mamlook. He has won his fair share over the hurdles this year and is rated in the high 130s. Was decent on the flat before that however and runs here just 3lb higher than his win at Wexford last flat season. Sure to be popular with Ryan Moore booked (rode loser for yard in this last season). Legend Erry was a horse I thought could make the transition to turf after a good A/W campaign and he ran ok at Newbury. Hasn't been seen since but if all is well he is fairly handicapped and could go well at a price if he stays. Legend Erry's stablemate Clear Reef is similar in the fact that he also had a fair A/W campaign and looked a type to go well on the turf. Disappointed LTO though after a break so obviously had a problem, would be interesting for the rest of the season when he gets back to form. Tears Of A Clown is a lightly raced horse and probably not 100% straightforward - he is been disappointing since winning here last summer. He has the potential to be better than his rating if they can get him right but hasn't shown any signs that he is able to stay this far. Staying has to be taken fully on trust but it could be the making of him - yard had success with Enjoy The Moment last season when he was upped from middle distances to over 2m2f. Market hasn't taken shape yet, they are still betting to 160% on betfair, so will update final selections. I would expect the bookies will price up something like this, well this is my guess anyway: Bukit Tinggi 4/1 Liberate 6/1 Som Tala 15/2 Mamlook 9/1 Galient 10/1 Basalt 12/1 Jawad 14/1 Tears Of A Clown 14/1 Power Of Fortune 16/1 Duty Free 20/1 Baddam 20/1 Hawridge Prince 25/1 Odiham 25/1 Legend Erry 25/1 Tritonville Lodge 25/1 Missoula 33/1 Daltaban 33/1 Vinando 50/1 Clear Reef 50/1 Waverley 66/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Royal Ascot Tuesday Ascot Stakes (Class 2) Just the one handicap on day one and the 2m4f Ascot Stakes is possibly the toughest of all the Royal Ascot handciaps. I'll be going to war with over a 1/4 of the fileld on my side here and the short list are Bukit Tinggi, Som Tala, Mamlook, Legend Erry, Clear Reef, and Tears Of A Clown. Bukit Tinggi is a horse I have selected on every occasion this season (211) and backed a few times last season. I always knew he had potential and finally (after being gelded) he is starting to show it. He is 16lb higher than he was at the start of the season but he started the season off a lower mark than he should've due to him throwing a few races away last season. He showed the ability of an 80 horse last season so I still believe there is more to come despite now being rated 87. Value for more than his winning margin LTO and I hope Robinson holds onto him a little longer here than he did at York. I backed Som Tala in this last year and he was very unlucky when 3rd to Full House (such a shame Hugh Bowman doesn't ride here anymore, I could do with a laugh). I gave up on Som Tala later in the season after some poor efforts. I decided to give him another chance in the Chester Cup and he ran a fine race narrowly going down to Bulwark. He seems to have come back to form and definitely stays the trip. However has been harshly treated by the handicapper. 12lb higher than his last win (with only a handful of decent runs since) and 6lb higher than when placed LTO in the Chester Cup. I just can't see how he should be running off a clear career mark based on his form since his last win in Sept 2006. Martin Pipe won this once or twice and David runs a typical type (fresh from a fair season hurdling) in Mamlook. He has won his fair share over the hurdles this year and is rated in the high 130s. Was decent on the flat before that however and runs here just 3lb higher than his win at Wexford last flat season. Sure to be popular with Ryan Moore booked (rode loser for yard in this last season). Legend Erry was a horse I thought could make the transition to turf after a good A/W campaign and he ran ok at Newbury. Hasn't been seen since but if all is well he is fairly handicapped and could go well at a price if he stays. Legend Erry's stablemate Clear Reef is similar in the fact that he also had a fair A/W campaign and looked a type to go well on the turf. Disappointed LTO though after a break so obviously had a problem, would be interesting for the rest of the season when he gets back to form. Tears Of A Clown is a lightly raced horse and probably not 100% straightforward - he is been disappointing since winning here last summer. He has the potential to be better than his rating if they can get him right but hasn't shown any signs that he is able to stay this far. Staying has to be taken fully on trust but it could be the making of him - yard had success with Enjoy The Moment last season when he was upped from middle distances to over 2m2f. Market hasn't taken shape yet, they are still betting to 160% on betfair, so will update final selections. I would expect the bookies will price up something like this, well this is my guess anyway: Bukit Tinggi 4/1 Liberate 6/1 Som Tala 15/2 Mamlook 9/1 Galient 10/1 Basalt 12/1 Jawad 14/1 Tears Of A Clown 14/1 Power Of Fortune 16/1 Duty Free 20/1 Baddam 20/1 Hawridge Prince 25/1 Odiham 25/1 Legend Erry 25/1 Tritonville Lodge 25/1 Missoula 33/1 Daltaban 33/1 Vinando 50/1 Clear Reef 50/1 Waverley 66/1

----------------------- Betting to 119.3%

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Which was my aim - well 120% was my working point. Is about right for an early bird book, wouldn't you say?

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) For a 20 runner handicap that seems a touch generous to me if anything. May be you'd better apply for a job at Skybet Billy. They like betting to 1% per runner at major meetings. I'd expect most bookies to bet to around 126 or 127% for a competitive 20 runner handicap.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

For a 20 runner handicap that seems a touch generous to me if anything. May be you'd better apply for a job at Skybet Billy. They like betting to 1% per runner at major meetings. I'd expect most bookies to bet to around 126 or 127% for a competitive 20 runner handicap.

I couldn't afford the drop in income. We should attempt tissue guesses more often as I'm the only one brave enough to attempt one so far.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Royal Ascot Tuesday Ascot Stakes (Class 2) I would expect the bookies will price up something like this, well this is my guess anyway: Bukit Tinggi 4/1 (4/1) Liberate 6/1 (11/2) Som Tala 15/2 (8/1) most 15/2 though Mamlook 9/1 (9/1) Galient 10/1 (8/1) Basalt 12/1 (16/1) half are 12/1 though Jawad 14/1 (14/1) Tears Of A Clown 14/1 (33/1) most are lot shorter though Power Of Fortune 16/1 (16/1) Duty Free 20/1 (20/1) Baddam 20/1 (16/1) Hawridge Prince 25/1 (25/1) Odiham 25/1 (NR) Legend Erry 25/1 (40/1) Tritonville Lodge 25/1 (50/1) Missoula 33/1 (22/1) Daltaban 33/1 (40/1) Vinando 50/1 (50/1) Clear Reef 50/1 (66/1) all bar one are 50/1 Waverley 66/1 (100/1) all bar one are 66/1

ACTUAL best prices now in brackets above, now that most have opened up. How did I do? ;)

[stewartd14]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Quite impressive :clap:clap:clap

[stewartd14]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Quite impressive :clap:clap:clap

Just need to get the winner now :loon