The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Although I'm in a minority I have to say that York is my least favourite big meeting. I'm less confident this week than I was last week at Chester, or will be at Goodwood. It can be a graveyard for punters here at times, none more so than when it fluffed it's lines when coming off the bench for the Royal meeting. I really think you have to pick your punches here, but that is true of all big meetings I suppose. 2.10 York (Class 2) I backed Generous Thought LTO and this was the write-up;

Generous Thought ran a cracker on his debut to finish 5th to Luck Money in one of the best early season maidens. He was popular on his 2nd start but threw his chance away by hanging left late on. He would've won that day had he been kept straight. He made amends, winning on his 3rd and then won a Nursery on his final start. The penny has dropped with him and he could be a rare hot prospect for the Howling yard. Howling said that Jamie Spencer likes him and think's he'll win a Listed race, so interesting that he takes the ride again here - he rode a winner for the yard last Friday. Easy ground an unknown though.

Despite the worry about the ground, he came through to challenge after a slow start and I was certain he would win inside the last. He was touched off in a photo unfortunately. I wasn't happy with the ride Spencer gave him and was livid after the race. He didn't pick the stick up at all, he would've won without question had he received just one slap. The horse I mean, not Jamie, although that isn't a bad idea. I keep going back to what I flagged up last time, Spencer really likes this horse and told Howling (after riding him) that he thinks he is a future listed winner. That may be why he wasn't hard on him late in the race, especially in the easy ground. The form couldn't be any better for the grade. The winner Huzzah defied a 7lb higher to win at Chester, the 3rd Keep Discovering (re-opposes here) won a handicap at Great Leighs, the 4th Ramona Chase ran as well as winning by finishing 2nd to Dr Faustus (I don't think there is a 3yo in training that could've beaten that horse off the joke of a mark he had that day), even the 9th Aye Aye Digby (who I tipped at 100/1+ in the race) won NTO in a class 3. It's no surprise that Generous Thought was penalised by the handicapper for that narrow defeat, it's fair under the circumstances, but is a 6lb hike fair? For a horse than didn't win? It gets worse, as he goes up another 3lb for future races. That's a 9lb rise in total. I know the handicapper has a job to do, but is this fair to connections after they've had an unlucky loser? Owning is tough enough without having to put up with a spiteful hike after a defeat. And they wonder why trainers pull out the tricks to get a mark. Nothing upsets trainers more than unfair handicap hikes. Despite the rise I have to include him here, connections must surely be trying so hard for a win in this as it's not going to get any easy in the future in handicaps. The other important form line when looking at this race is Slugger O'Toole's win at Newmarket on 1000gns day. I said on the day that Slugger O'Toole was a lucky winner but having watched the race over a dozen times, it's fair to say that was an understatement. I think Slugger O'Toole was the luckiest handicap winner so far this season. To have one horse in behind that failed to get a run is one thing, but to have five or six is unreal. Three of those unlucky horses in behind run in this, Meydan Princess, Swift Gift and Dubai Dynamo. The finished as follows; 2nd Meydan Princess btn nk 3rd Swift Gift btn 1l 5th Dubai Dynamo btn 2.25l Swift Gift is 1lb better off with the other two. All three had a troubled passage so it isn't easy to work out who'll come out on top this time. Meydan Princess had the benefit of a run but was arguably the unluckiest of the trio. She was slowly away and was faced with a wall of horses in front of her for most of the way. She was forced very wide in order to make a challenge but flew when in the clear. The stable couldn't be in better form and although Jamie Spencer opts for Generous Thought, they have found a more than capable sub in Johnny Murtagh (31% for the yard last season). Stable also has an impressive 30% S/R with 3yo's here. Swift Gift was the least unlucky but does get the slight weight pull. Intitled to come on for the run too. Weighted to reverse form with Tanweer (maiden form last season) who is priced around the same. Dubai Dynamo pulled hard early on before losing his position badly. He was squeezed for room and found himself almost last (from front rank originally) at the one pole. He flew under a tender ride to get back to 5th. Had plenty of runs at two, so I'm not sure if there is any real improvement in him (unlike the others), especially off this mark. Hawaana needed the run badly LTO, great bit of formline with Dr Freemantle at two although clearly flattered by that - Hills picks this over Tanweer. Generous Thought 45% of stake 4.5 betfair Meydan Princess 35% of stake 5.3 betfair Dubai Dynamo 15% of stake 10 betfair Swift Gift 5% of stake 22 betfair Casts Generous Thought/Meydan Princess £5 RFC Generous Thought/Meydan Princess/Dubai Dynamo £5 F/C Comb Generous Thought/Meydan Princess/Dubai Dynamo/Swift Gift £5 F/C Comb (12 bets) Generous Thought/Meydan Princess/Dubai Dynamo/Swift Gift £3.55 T/C Comb (24 bets) Generous Thought/Meydan Princess/Dubai Dynamo/Swift Gift/Hawaan 25p T/C Comb (60 bets)

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) I saw by one of your posts you are even more of a night owl than me billy. York should be interesting, I see some lucky punters have got over 5/1 Lush Lashes. Don't know whether to hope she wins (backed her today) or Dar Re Mi (backed her for the Oaks). Think I will get an early night, don't know whether to go to Salisbury or watch York on TV thursday. Got Newbury fri and sat too. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

I saw by one of your posts you are even more of a night owl than me billy. York should be interesting, I see some lucky punters have got over 5/1 Lush Lashes. Don't know whether to hope she wins (backed her today) or Dar Re Mi (backed her for the Oaks). Ginge

Yeah I am. That's why this game suits me so much. Although I was a nine-to-fiver for a few years (well 9.45-4.30 more like), it was never me. I will be up for racing though! Just. I just find it the easiest time to study, no distractions. I'll be amazed if one of those doesn't win, so I believe you'll be happy after the race. I'm not sure of the 1000gns form yet. I think Spacious aside they are below average. Lush Lashes must surely improve for the trip though. Good luck with whatever you decide. I've looked at the Sals card briefly, the claimer looks interesting, but the handicaps look a little tough.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Again the late night prices taken have beaten the morning prices. Three of my four for the 2.10 ar shorter. Generous Thought now 4.1, Meydan Princess 4.5, Swift Gift 17, although Dubai Dynamo is a drifter out to 14.5. A lot can happen once they open too of course. 1.40 York Nothing actually sticks out for me in this and I had originally put a line through the race. However once I've seen the better I thought I'd attempt to back some value by process of elimination. Ladies Best was a expensive purchase out of Stoute's yard at the sale back end. Unusual for a Chevely Park off-cast to be sold for that much and unusual for any horse to go Stoute to Cumani. Was a big drifter on his debut for the yard and ran poor, big drifter again today so best watched. May be interesting in the future though in over 1m4f. I was confused as to why Gulf Express was so short LTO. He ran a shocker, clearly needing the run. Sure to strip fitter now and it would be no surprise if he improved greatly on that run. But, it would take a leap of faith to back him to win just 10 days later. Not saying this is a lay, by any stretch, but I need a bit more to take 7/2 about a horse. King Charles will have his supporters and he looks fairly solid. But that's just it, solid. I think it would be a below average Class 2 for him win (although this could be just that). He was very well backed LTO so that is how good he is. He travelled well and was making ground late, however I didn't like the way he carried his head inside the last. Will be more effective at this trip but I think he is only averagely handicapped. If there isn't any improvers in this he could win - but he's not the sort of horse I go for in these races. I fancied Supaseus LTO and he was a little disappointing. He usually runs well on his seasonal debut from the front. He never really got going, and was off the bridle early - perhaps he didn't like being taken on for the lead. He looked like he was going to be swamped and finish tailed, however he ran on to finish 4th - which was a surprise. Worth a try at this trip and should get an uncontested lead in this though. Drowne a worry though, he goes best for John Egan and has been tailed every time when partnered by Steve Drowne. Folk Opera is interesting here obviously. Has bags of scope and I'm not writing off Godolphin horses in the same way as a lot of punters are. I have never rated them with regards to training, but they aren't going to be out of form forever due to the quality of horse. I thought RDLP ran a cracker in the French Guineas and they could be creeping back now. Richard Fahey runs two interesting types here and I will keep an eye on both for the rest of the season. Smart Instinct failed to run a bad race last season in top handicaps. Dropped in the weights a little and sur eto find life easier this season. Ran well at this meeting last year, goes well fresh and I think he could win a decent prize this season, especially now he is running at an appropriate trip. Fitness a worry. His other runner is Mesbaah who was bought out of Michael Jarvis' yard. Ran poor LTO on ground far too soft so that can be ignored. Is well handicapped on last season's form and like his stablemate I wouldn't be surprised if he picked up a handicap or two this season. Not guaranteed to stay this 10f but today's ground suits. Tastahil is a horse we know very little about. Ran a cracker against Bankable and obviously kept in training for a reason. Difficult to handicap due to his former probelms and is an obvious potential improver. Tastahil 30% of stake 6.6 betfair Folk Opera 20% of stake 7.8 betfair Supaseus 15% of stake 12 betfair Smart Instinct 25% of stake 18 betfair Mesbaah 10% of stake 44 betfar Casts: Above five £5 F/C Comb (20 bets) £1.65 T/C Comb (60 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Monday - 0/1 As usual I'm claiming to be unlucky. I knew something went wrong with Habshan as I thought he had to go close. He was travelling well, went odds-on in running but then was eased to a walk soon after. He has since come to light that he lost THREE shoes during the race. Sack the farrier. The saver Bustan was touched off but I broke level on the F/C side, having a saver on the 1-2. 1st Mujood 5/1 2nd Bustan 7/2 Ex : £18 Tuesday - no bet Wednesday - 1/2 Went five handed the 1.40 at York and got a 1-2-3-4 finish, which was nice, and my three negatives all failed to run a race. I didn't intend to have a bet in this, but about 12.30pm I looked at the betting and thought it was all wrong so I thought I'd try and sneak the winner. As a result (due to time constraints) my staking on the F/C and T/C wasn't great, should've bankered the 1-2-3 who were shorter priced -but profits shown all the same. Had the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the 2.10. A little unlucky as I thought the main bet Generous Thought ran a great race to get 2nd from a mile off the pace. The 3rd was also slowly away. Looking at the first four home in these races my selections filled 7 of the 8 places. 1st Folk Opera 6/1 2nd Tastahil 9/2 3rd Supaseus 9/1 (4th Smart Instinct 17/2) Ex : £34.80 T/C : £241.42 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 48 Winning Bets : 27 (56% S/R) Collected Bets : 28 (58% S/R) Staked : 48pts Returns : 63.57pts P/L : + 15.57pts Yield : 33% ----------------- Upper Class F/C's Bets : 37 Winning Bets : 12 S/R : 32% Staked : £3700 Returns : £5056.43 P/L : +£1356.43 Yield : 36% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 30 Winning Bets : 4 S/R : 13% Staked : £3000 Returns : £2744.95 P/L : -£255.05 Yield : -9% Annoyed to show a slight loss since the last summary, but luck hardly on my side of late. Selections rearing in the stalls, unseating their riders, losing shoes etc :@ - at least the judgement is there though. And as touched upon above, kicking myself for not winning more on today's T/C.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 1.40 York (Class 2) I've never liked horses drawn very high at York in sprints. They usually come down the middle and horses drawn low to middle tend to fair better. When they come the centre route I don't like to be wide on either side. I'd be looking for a draw of 2-11 ideally, something like that. From the five big sprint handicaps (16 runners+) at York last season; 5 of the 20 (25%) placed horses were drawn 12 or higher (one of those was drawn 13 of 20 so not a high draw). 15 of the 20 (75%) placed horses were drawn 2-11. I estimated the 2-11 ideal draw before working out the above, based on last year's results I'd have to stick with that idea. As always, the position of the pace is important with regards to where the best draw is likely to be. This is how today's runners usually run: stall 1 varies 2 up with pace 3 held up 4 front runner 5 up with pace 6 held up 7 tracked leader/held up 8 mid div/held up 9 held up 10 front runner 11 up with pace 12 held up 13 up with pace 14 held up 15 up with pace The two 'high draw' horses (Tabaret/Fantasy Explorer) that run up with the pace have failed to get to the front rank on their recent runs. There is guaranteed to be pace low to middle so still predict that a 2-11 draw would be a bonus. In conclusion, unlike the sprint last week at Chester, the draw info should be used as a guide only here and what is seen as a good draw should be seen as a bonus only - not a reason to back/oppose. ---- Bertoliver did me proud last week when I backed him at a big price at Chester, he runs here off a 4lb higher mark. Although last week's race suited him it wasn't the only reason why I backed him. He had some real decent form last season (his Sandwon June win in particular) and is an interesting handicapper for this season. McEvoy takes the mount back from Robinson and is 2/4 on him. I think York will suit and is sure to make another bold front running bid. The booking of Johnny Murtagh on Fydor takes the eye (1/2 with older horses for the yard over five seasons) but he is so hard to win with. It's been two years since his last win but he is well weighted with a few fancied rivals. Can't rule out although he is probably a point or two underpriced due to the jockey booking. Bond City has slipped to a fair mark and is very well handicapped on old form, however has disappointed a little IMO this season. Sure to run a race though, and looks nailed on for a top 4/5 finish. Special Day ran well in big fields last season but would need to show a little bit more this season before I back him. Fantasy Explorer is well handicapped on form before his injury. Was backed from 40s to 16s for his comeback and is sure to strip fitter for that run. Apparently he has fully recovered from the injury sustained at Epsom (injured in the same race as my horse was - that's Epsom for you) and will love the ground. High draw but Ryan Moore booked and a decent enough price. Aegean Dancer finally got the hang of things late in his 3yo season and last season showed formlines of 1381024271. 30% winning S/R, 60% placed S/R and only the one poor run (Haydock in Aug). He is best at 5f on a sound surface and from his 17 career runs at the min trip he has been placed 11 times (65%), and finished in the first five home 88% of the time. He ran a cracker on his last start on New Year's Day at Southwell, beaten just over a length on a surface that didn't suit. Not run for 135 but seems best when fresh with form lines showing 211 when given a break this long. Must go close. The two main bets are drawn 5 (Aegean Dancer) and 10 (Bertoliver). Aegean Dancer 50% of stake 10 betfair (9/1 currently with a couple of firms) Bertoliver 25% of stake 6.2 betfair Fyodor 10% of stake 11 betair Fantasy Explorer 15% of stake 14 betfair

[Trotter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) edit.........moved to the 'York' thread to avoid clutter..........

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 1.40 York Casts: Aegean Dancer/Bertoliver/Fyodor £16.50 F/C Comb £8.65 T/C Comb Aegean Dancer/Bertoliver/Fyodor/Special Day £2 T/C Comb (24 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Four non-runners in the first race, which is annoying. With 11 runners going to post, any slight draw advantages are quoshed. Betfair punters get a rough with the deductions, here are the amended prices (after the deductions) for mine: Aegean Dancer 50% of stake 8.3 betfair Bertoliver 25% of stake 5.4 betfair Fyodor 10% of stake 9.6 betfair Fantasy Explorer 15% NON-RUNNER Will apportion the remaining 15% as such: Aegean Dancer 5% of stake 6.2 betfair Bertoliver 7.5% of stake 5.8 betfair Fyodor 2.5% of stake 9.8 betfair Will edit the post with the casts.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Disappointed in the way Aegean Dancer ran today after drifting alarmingly on betfair just before the off. Bertoliver ran a fine race and I thought he was home, beaten around 1/2l in the end. Wish KcEvoy would've been a little more positive, like Robinson was last week, I think had he asked him earlier and kicked (instead of going well at his own pace in front), I think he may've slipped the field.

3.45 York (Class 3)

Marvellous Value was impressive when on his handicap debut and the form is working out well. Although he was unbeaten, he looked to have improved on his debut run. He has been clobbered by the handicapper and runs here off a 12lb higher mark. A much tougher race and different ground to contend with but cannot be excluded in case there is more improvement.

Rash Judgement was part of a winning T/C for me when he was 3rd to handicap cert Corrybrough at Sandown last month. That was an above standard race for the grade - no surprise as the winner is a Group horse in the making. The 2nd Chartist ran a fine race NTO at Chester (2nd), getting caught late on off a 2lb higher mark. The 4th Brassini won in fine style at Lingfield last Saturday and the 10th Good Gorsoon also went close NTO at Chester. He is very lucky not to be raised for this run (although will run off a 2lb higher mark in future).

Rash Judgement finished 3rd despite suffering a troubled passage, he flew late on. I don't rate Fegus Sweeney in the slightest and he has been replaced by Ryan Moore here. The difference between the two couldn't be greater.

His final 2yo start caught the eye and was the reason I including him in my T/C bet LTO. He finished 2nd to Generous Thought off levels, we know how good that winner is and to get within 2l carrying the same weight is some achievement.

He previously run in the big Newmarket sales race behind Exclamation. He finished 16th of 28 beaten 5.75l. He ran better than the formline suggests as he was one of only six horses to stick to the stand sides. He was 4th of those, and the winner on the stands side was beaten 3.25l.

He is a winner in waiting off his current mark. The stable are in form two with a flat and a bumper winner in the last week. A tick in every box.

Lesson In Humility was only two necks behind Rash Judgement in the Corrybrough race and also didn't get the best of runs. She is a 1lb better off but her tail was like a windmill inside the last and I expect Rash Judgement to confirm superiority.

Rash Judgement 70% of stake 3.3 betfair

Marvellous Value 20% of stake 5.7 betfair

Lesson In Humility 10% of stake 10 betfair

Casts:

Rash Judgement/Marvellous Value/Lesson In Humility

£16.50 F/C Comb

£16.50 T/C Comb

4.20 York (Class 2)

All the pace is drawn low-middle.

Damika has been unlucky of late and deserves a prize of this kind. Has crept up the weights due to those near misses and I just think his chance of winning a race like this may've gone.

Tombi did little wrong last season and is interesting this year.

I've always been a fan on Buachaill Dona, his is very conistent for a sprint handicapper and I've always believed he has the potential to be a Group horse.

He is only 4lb higher than his last win and 2lb higher than when 4th in this last season. I can't believe he is only 9lb higher than when winning here in late 2006. In my opinion, on his day he is a far better horse than his official mark of 100 suggest.

He ran a fair race in Dubai over 6f before failing to stay 7f on his final start over there. He looked as though he was coming into form at Chester last week when running a cracker after being slowly away from a wide draw.

I think he would've given Bertoliver a ran had be not been drawn wide and looks primed to win soon.

Stablemate Machinist is another who has pieces of form that are above handicap class. The stable have a massive chance to capture their 2nd sprint in two days.

Buachaill Dona 70% of stake 7.8 betfair Machinist 15% of stake 12.5 betfair Damika 5% of stake 8.4 betfair

Tomba 10% of stake 12.5 betfair There was plenty of money just available at up to 8.8 on B.Dona, I took a fair bit, massive price.

Casts:

Buachaill Dona/Machinist/Tomba/Damika

£8.25 F/C Comb (12 bets) £4.10 T/C Comb (24 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Made a slight loss at York after hitting the cross bar a couple of times. I voiced my concerns regarding the track at the start of the meeting and still believe it is toughest group one track to back winners at. 3.20 Newbury The betting is only about one horse in this, the Sandown winner Colony trained my Michael Stoute. The form of that win has been franked and there were plenty of reports from the owner and yard over the winter suggesting the horse was one to follow this season. He made light work of that handicap at Sandown off 77 and given the opinion of those around him an 8lb hike may not stop him. Is short at 2/1 though and as betfair go 10 bar one I will try and find one or two to go with him. I fancied Sundowner LTO he was short of room throught the race. That ran can be totally ignored. This is a warmer race than the one I backed him in then but could be winning soon. His maiden win at Lingfield has a host of winners behind. William Blake has done nothing wrong and has been in my notebook since his debut. He was a horse I thought could continue to progress on turf this season. His win at Lingfield showed how game he is and the win at Beverley, for which he is 8lb higher, has worked out ok. Colony 60% of stake 3.05 betfair William Blake 30% of stake 10 betfair Sundowner 10% of stake 18.5 betfair Casts: Colony/William Blake/Sundowner £10 F/C Comb £8 T/C Comb Colony/William Blake/Sundowner/Ramona Chase £3.30 F/C Comb (12 bets) £2.15 T/C Comb (24 bets) 2.25 Newmarket Short of time here so will be brief. I backed Viva Vettori LTO at Kempton and though he was impressive, had the race one fairly early - not usual for an A/W Class 3 handicap. Would have to prove he is as good on turf but only a 4lb rise there and is still interesting for the season. Oceana Gold ran a cracker LTO just getting collared late on by Proponent. The drop in trip will probably suit but is 5lb higher for that run. Fondled starts the season on a fair mark, there is surely a handicap or two in her this season. The recent rain would've helped but stable form is a slight worry. Sri Kuantan has disappointed after early season promise. He didn't act on the fibresand LTO and is a big price if he bounced back. If. Viva Vettori 60% of stake 3.25 betfair Fondled 35% of stake 5.3 betfair Sri Kuantan 5% of stake 42 betfair Casts: Viva Vettori/Fondled/Sri Kuantan £16.50 F/C Comb £7.65 T/C Comb Viva Vettori/Fondled/Sri Kuantan/Oceana Gold £1 T/C Comb (24 bets) Viva Vettori/Fondled/Oceana Gold £5 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.55 Newbury Royal Rocks and Jimmy Styles were both winning bets for me last time out and I believe there is more to come from both. Royal Rocks is the class act however and last year I always thought he'd be better than a handicapper. He ran well LTO on ground too quick and the small raise in the handicap may not be enough to stop him. Jimmy Styles did get the run of the race last time and this may be too hot under a 5lb higher mark. He travelled so well last time and this won't be the last time I back him this year. I backed Baby Strange LTO at 33/1 (placed) and I still believe there is a race in him. Ran well to finish 2nd to Cape this year and found the 5f far too short against Chief Editor. Ran well LTO, which was no surprise and I think there is defintely a big sprint in him. Was very decent at two. Sundae is one of my horse to follow this season. Shame there are so many of my horses in this race. He finished a great season with a fine performance in the Ayr Silver Cup giving weight to most. Fitness an issue but is a good prospect for this season. Laying short, and although nothing is a certainty, I would be surprised if I don't collect. Royal Rocks 55% of stake 2.9 betfair Baby Strange 20% of stake 9.4 betfair Jimmy Styles 15% of stake 6.6 betfair Sundae 10% of stake 17.5 betfair Casts: Royal Rocks/Baby Strange/Jimmy Styles/Sundae £4.60 F/C Comb (12 bets) £2.90 T/C Comb (24 bets) Royal Rocks/Baby Strange/Jimmy Styles £7.50 F/C Comb £5 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.20 Thirsk Soccerjackpot starts the year on a good mark after a consistent last season. Looks sure to win a decent prize this year. Fast ground a slight worry though, as is the trip - this could be pipe opener and wouldn't dismiss him of he gets beaten here. Valery Borzov looks another top sprinter in the making for Dandy Nicholls and looks to have a kind mark. I'll be amazed if he isn't 10lb higher come November. High Curragh ran well on his reappearance and is well handicapped on old form, as is Blue Tomato who has an interesting jockey booking. Valery Borzov 50% of stake 4.1 betfair Soccerjackpot 30% of stake 7.6 betfair High Curragh 10% of stake 10 betfair Blue Tomato 10% of stake 15 betfair Casts: Valery Borzov/Soccerjackpot/High Curragh/Blue Tomato £8.25 F/C Comb (12 bets) £4.10 T/C Comb (24 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

4.20 Thirsk Valery Borzov looks another top sprinter in the making for Dandy Nicholls and looks to have a kind mark. I'll be amazed if he isn't 10lb higher come November.

I'll change that to June.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Thursday 0/1 (-1pt) - Bertoliver getting caught late on, although Aegean Dancer ran no sort of race. Friday 1/2 (-0.7tpt) - Had the 2nd & 3rd in the 3.45, the winner just holding on. My saver won in the 4.20 after the draw was up in the air again. I posted a nice 12.5 for Tombi (won at 7/1) although I took much bigger for a portion of my stake, well backed and could be decent this year. A pleasing day elsewhere though four winners from four and Salisbury and Newmarket. 1st Tombi 7/1 (12.5) I said at the begining of the meeting that York is my least favourite big meeting. It can be a graveyard for us punters and I've always found it tough. The monster gamble on the Easterby horse in my race yesterday a prime example - that wouldn't happen at any other big meeting, a good old northern gamble that finds massive amounts of form (unless I've under rated Scottish maiden form;)). Saturday 3/4 (+1.79pts) - Normal service is resumed thankfully. Fondled won nicely in the 2.25, wanted to take on the favourite Oceana Gold and thought it would come from the winner or Viva Vettori, who was actually disappointing. 1st Fondled 4/1 (5.3) 3.20 was disappointing, thought Colony would ran better, especially with Midships finishing 2nd. Sundowner however was the unlucky horse in the race, coming from a mile off the pace to finish 6th after a troubled passage. I rarely criticise female jockeys but I don't think Hayley Turner is at her best this season, I've seen her ride several shockers of late and she doesn't look the same girl she did less than a year ago. Took just under evens in the sprint at 3.55, but was convinced I'd have the winner from my group of four. It was close though (although I always thought Baby Strange was going to get up inside the last ;)). Bit disappointed that so many of my notebook horses took eachother on in this as I don't think I've benefitted as much as I should have from a horse I knew was going to win a race very soon. I took under the odds too, Baby Strange went to as big as 13/14 on betfair. 1st Baby Strange 9/1 (9.4) Valery Borzov bolted up at Thirsk and had the race won a long way out. I took under the odds once again, but he only drifted due to the monster gamble of Soccerjackpot, I took 12 on betfair but by the time I'd finish the write-up he was around 7, about five minutes after he was 7/2. He was disappointing but as stated in the write-up, not to be written off. Had a 1-2 here with High Curragh 2nd, a nice exacta. 1st Valery Borzov 7/2 (4.1) 2nd High Curragh 11/2 (10) Ex : £34.70 Will update stats later.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) My best bet of the day won at 5/2 tonight but wasn't on this thread due to it being a Class 4 race. 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 55 Winning Bets : 31 (56% S/R) Collected Bets : 32 (58% S/R) Staked : 55pts Returns : 70.61pts P/L : + 15.61pts Yield : 28% ----------------- Upper Class F/C's Bets : 44 Winning Bets : 13 S/R : 30% Staked : £4400 Returns : £5342.71 P/L : +£942.71 Yield : 21% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 37 Winning Bets : 4 S/R : 11% Staked : £3700 Returns : £2744.95 P/L : -£955.05 Yield : -25%

[BillyHills]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Billy, interesting stuff, just gone through the whole thread again, something I like to do once a thread has some history, I feel its good to have an overview of things. Plenty of winners since you re-thought your strategy, just wondered if you think its working ok? Something i did notice is that a fair few of your 'saver' bets have gone in which although its nice to have a winner I cant help thinking i'd be disappointed that the horse with the most money on got beat. The reason I mention this is because i also noticed about 75% of the time the biggest % of your stake goes on the shortest price horse, is this a true reflection of your thoughts about a race or do the prices sway you in any way to have the biggest bet on the most fancied horse. I know many that back more than one in a race tend to have their banker as the fav, i also feel this is where some punters go wrong and miss out on some good profits because of it. Dont get me wrong, its no problem if you actually think the short one has the best chance. I like to think of it in reverse sometimes, have a good bet on a say 6/1 shot and cover my bets if the fav beats it. I would also be interested to know how you would be doing if you had level stakes, you have had some nice priced winners yet sometimes the reward has been disappointing. Anyway you seem to be doing very well, just thought your views and thoughts would be interesting to hear. Great game this aint it!

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Thanks for the input Graham, always appreciated. I am happy now with things at the moment, especially as (although not mentioned on here yet) I seem to have found the reason why so many were beaten in the lower grades. You may've noticed lately that I've had plenty of winners in lowers grades (on the daily threads and many some have been my BBOTD). The higher the % the stronger I fancy it, I try and ignore price and it's coincidence probably that so many bankers are the shorter selections (it's usually going to the case probibility wise). I believe I did make a mistake today, along those lines, I should've backed Royal Rocks as a saver only, and gone bigger on the bigger priced selections. For the sake of 0.5pt profit, it was incorrect staking. However sometimes, due to having no strong opinion about one or if I cannot split between some, I will take a price about my group. Will then stake around the prices in order to show 10/11 for my entire stake for example. The 2.25 at Newmarket today a prime example, I was happy to take on Oceana Gold at 10/11 my two coupled. My dad is adamant that it pays to back my selections level stakes - he is basing this on many years, and through memory only. I just struggle with the logic of it. The more you fancy something the more you should apportion stake. I will do the research after the season ends and see which is more profitable. I've already noticed a pattern since doing this thread. The 3yo only races on this thread are showing a loss. They are difficult due to potentional improvement in many runners - always difficult to gauge, sometimes impossible. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet and will wait for a few more months of results before any real research.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) The way I decide on who is going to be the main bet and who the savers is a bit complicated.... The one / ones who are the best value usually get the vote for the main bet, (not necessarily the one I think has the best chance , or fancy the most). That means if I consider horse A has a 40% (6/4) chance and I can get 13/8 (38%), 2% difference. Yet B I believe has a 16% chance (11/2) and I can get 7/1 (12.5%) 3.5% difference. The main bet will usually be on B, even though I think it has a worse chance of winning, it is better value. (I do prefer my main bet to be bigger than 9/4 if both are the same value). However, this can change if the better value horse's trainer is not in such good form as the other selection. As the chance of the horse running to form is a big factor. Also, I do have an over all stake in mind for one race. So if I can bet two or three (or more) as main bets, then I will do so (Lockinge yesterday). Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.10 Ripon (Class 2) I've backed Laa Rayb on both his starts this season after following him last year. Although he looked a little awkward last season (now gelded) I still thought he had potential to turn into a useful handicapper this season. He ran better than his formline suggest FTO when 6th in a big handicap and Newmarket but unseated out the stalls for the big one at Ascot last time, which was a sickener. Different test today but I think Ripon will suit. He has won at Southwell and Goodwood and ran a cracker at Chester. I sometimes feel horses of his type are suited by this handy, tight tracks. He is definitely well handicapped and will win as soon as he puts his best foot forward. Stable form a worry, horses are very in and out due to problems at home - he has ran well recently though so you'd think he'll be ok. Easterby is bang in form after a quiet spell and I think Collateral Damage is over priced. He ran well at Thirsk LTO and is far more attractively priced than his rival that day My Paris. I'm surprised Fremen isn't at the head of the market, he is starting to slip down the weights again after a good season. Finished 8th in the Lincoln and ran a cracker LTO at Naas. Could have another productive summer. Laa Rayb 70% of stake 3.7 betfair Fremen 20% of stake 8.4 betfair Collateral Damage 10% of stake 17.5 betfair Casts: Laa Rayb/Fremen/Collateral Damage £13.30 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Laa Rayb/Fremen £10 RFC

[jtw1]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Well done with LAA RAYB :loon

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Sunday 1/1 (+1.59pts) - Main bet Laa Rayb won (3.7, retuned 5/2) with a bit in hand. Although he still looked a little awkward he is genuine and as long as the handicapper is fair he could win again. A pleasing weekend; 3.38pts profit, 80% S/R and a 67% yield. 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 56 Winning Bets : 32 (57% S/R) Collected Bets : 33 (59% S/R) Staked : 56pts Returns : 73.20pts P/L : + 17.2pts Yield : 31% ----------------- Upper Class F/C's Bets : 45 Winning Bets : 13 S/R : 29% Staked : £4500 Returns : £5342.71 P/L : +£842.71 Yield : 19% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 38 Winning Bets : 4 S/R : 11% Staked : £3800 Returns : £2744.95 P/L : -£1055.05

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 7.35 Sandwon (Class 3) The Upper Class races have been few and far between this week, think this is the 2nd. Not ideal race planning from the powers that be. There was one today at Ayr and I was half way through a write-up when they called the meeting off. Apparently they over watered up there and made a patch of the course un-safe. Fantastic, that sort of incompetence takes some doing. If it is true then I hope the clerk of the course's next shit is a hedgehog. Just a handful of bets so far this week so will try and dig out the winner of this. A few promising types flopped on their seasonal debuts and I cannot entertain them until there is evidence of them returning to form. As a result, there could be a lack of depth in this. Henry Cecil's Tomintoul Flyer had a very nice first season. 3rd to Centennial on his debut, he stepped up and won his maiden on his 2nd start, the 3rd, Inventor, won off 81 at Windsor on Monday. He apprecitated the step up to 10f on his final start and starts this year off 85 which looks like a kind mark. Suffered an injury after being kicked but apparently has fully recovered and market support this morning suggests he is fit enough despite that little set back. A big type who should be suited to Sandown. Tajweed has improved for a gelding op over the winter and could still be ahead of the handicapper (3lb higher than last win and due to rise another 3lb in future handicaps). Despite a troubled passage he managed to finished 3rd to Doctor Freemantle in a race that has worked out well. We know he has improved since then (due to the gelding) so his winning may not have stopped. All form this season has come on an easy surface though. Colony's win here has worked out ok and two of these were behind him that day. Safari Sunup (6th) and Dona Alba (9th). Safari Sunup isn't sure to enjoy the quicker conditions here though. Dona Alba is a definite stayer, despite weakening in that race and could do better with the run under the belt, stable still not firing though. Tomintoul Flyer 75% of stake 2.7 betfair Tajweed 25% of stake 3.75 betfair Casts: Tomintoul Flyer/Tajweed £20 RFC Tomintoul Flyer/Tajweed/Safari Sunup/Dona Alba £5 F/C Comb (12 bets) £1.65 T/C Comb (24 bets) Tomintoul Flyer/Tajweed/Safari Sunup £5 T/C Comb Tomintoul Flyer/Tajweed/Dona Alba £5 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Drop me out! Two big bets today, two write-ups. Both meetings cancelled. Something has to be done regarding the mistakes made due to watering and/or man made loose ground etc. No excuses. On a week where betting opportunities have been thin of the ground, this is a right pain. :@

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.10 Haydock This is only the 2nd Class2/3 handicap this week. The other was a four runner affair at Musselburgh. If anyone can tell me why I am very interested. There would've only been four had the two meetings completed yesterday. This is a tough race but I can afford to take a chance as results have been good recently. Hoh Wotanite and Ella Woodcock are paying for succesful seasons last year and look in need of a drop in the weights. Lord Theo ran ok LTO but has been run over all kinds of trips of late. I'm not sure what to make of him, don't think the yard does either. I'm not a fan of the trainer to be honest and it takes a lot for me to back one of his runners. Claret And Amber missed last year but ran ok on his first two comeback runs. A poor run LTO at Southwell can be ignored IF surface was to blame. Not totally out of it back on turf and it wouldn't be the biggest shock if he ran well, but didn't look that well handicapped off similar marks prior to the lay-off. I backed Russian Epic once or twice last year but was never 100% sure about him. No surprise to see him gelded during the winter. However, it didn't seem to work as he put in a poor effort FTO this season at Kempton. His form last year is decent so will give him a chance here back on turf but he is going to have to show some willing soon. Major Magpie will have his supporters as he was unlucky LTO off the same mark. It wasn't the first time he looked unlucky in defeat though, his running style will always make it look that way. Chances but a little short for me. Danehill Sundance is well handicapped if fit from a 75 lay-off. He runs here off the same mark as his last win in September and that run 75 days ago was ok. All those runs were for Richard Hannon, and although his new trainer has started well this year I'm not normally a fan of following horses that leave the Hannon yard. I napped Ansells Pride LTO but he ran a shocker. He was hampered at the start however and being a front runner his chance was lost then to be fair. His run prior to that puts him in with a chance, especially as it come on ground softer than ideal. Will take a chance on him bouncing back. Ansells Pride 50% of stake 6 betfair Russian Epic 30% of stake 10.5 betfair Danehill Sundance 20% of stake 5.2 betfair Casts: Ansells Pride/Russian Epic/Danehill Sundance £16.50 F/C Comb £6.65 T/C Comb Ansells Pride/Russian Epic/Danehill Sundance/Major Magpie £2.50 T/C Comb (24 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) I've had to wait four days for a proper bet! But it was worth the wait. :nana F/C up (£21 Ex) but 1-2-4 for the T/C - bah! I watched Major Magpie go down, hated this ground. I didn't think he would act but when I saw him go down to post I was 100% certain he wouldn't act on it. Had I not already been involved with bets against him I would've been constantly hitting the lay button.

[stewartd14]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

I've had to wait four days for a proper bet! But it was worth the wait. :nana F/C up (£21 Ex) but 1-2-4 for the T/C - bah! I watched Major Magpie go down, hated this ground. I didn't think he would act but when I saw him go down to post I was 100% certain he wouldn't act on it. Had I not already been involved with bets against him I would've been constantly hitting the lay button.

Brilliant mate, absolutely brilliant :clap:clap:clap:clap

[jtw1]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) :ok Nice one Billy , as you say opportunities have been scarce this week so it's good to hit a winner at these times .

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Cheers stewart/jtw! Thursday 1/1 (+2pts) - First bet of the week and a pleasing result with all selections running well. The main selection Ansells Pride did indeed bounce back to form and got the money back (and more) from last time. Danehillsundance ran well into 2nd, proving he is well handicapped, that resulted in a nice exacta. Russian Epic also showed more potential this time running well in 4th (close up). Will be winning soon. 1st Ansells Pride 2nd Danehillsundance Ex : £21.20 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 57 Winning Bets : 33 (58% S/R) Collected Bets : 34 (60% S/R) Staked : 57pts Returns : 76.2pts P/L : + 19.2pts Yield : 34% ----------------- Upper Class F/C's Bets : 46 Winning Bets : 14 S/R : 30% Staked : £4600 Returns : £5692.51 P/L : +£1092.51 Yield : 24% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 39 Winning Bets : 4 S/R : 10% Staked : £3900 Returns : £2744.95 P/L : -£1155.05

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Newmarket 4.05 (Class 3)

Plum Pudding has some decent form on a straight track but ran well on his first two starts this year on the A/W. He wasn't disgraced in the Spring Mile and Spring Cup, running ok on ground that might've been too soft.

So I was surprised that cheekpieces were fitted after those runs. He ran ok at Kempton but ran poorly LTO at Chester - not surprising as I believe he isn't at his best when turning, especially LH where his record reads 0-9 (only 1 placed run).

All his wins have come here and is dropping to a fair mark, the headgear is worrying me though. I don't see any problems with the drop to 7f.

I really don't know why I missed Phluke LTO, it had been a long Saturday and as it was a night meeting I obviously over looked him. I know it's easy to see why he won AFTER the event but he had dropped to a very lenient mark on a track that suits with his favoured going. He has been raised 4lb (now 84) but he is still well handicapped, he won off 89 this time last year. He doesn't seem to have lost any ability since then so his winning may continue in the near future.

The race he won LTO was at Warwick, he had won it the year before and he won his next start too - for the 2nd win he went for a Catterick race, that same race is this Saturday and Phluke is entered there as well.

I'm hoping he goes for that Catterick race instead of this race as I believe

he is a good thing for that event.

He likes to be up with the pace and suits handy/tight/quirky tracks, his previous wins have come at the following tracks:

Warwick (x2)

Catterick

Chester

Beverley (x2)

Epsom

Southwell

Brighton

Lingfield

Nothing like Newmarket are they?

Although on the book his chances are obvious I'm not sure HQ will suit, I really hope connections pull him here and opt for Catterick on Saturday instead. Not only would he be a great betting opportunity, it would make the bet a lot easier here!

Although I've made a case for the above two, the most interesting horse to line up is John Scargil's Big Noise. He had an impressive season and I backed him on all his four handicap starts after his 5l winning debut. Here is a run down of those four handicap runs (earliest first);

2nd - caught a tartar, running into Royal Rocks who was running off just 77. An impossible task.

1st - yardstick Kings Bastion in 2nd, unlucky 3rd was Bee Eater (running off 76), she won her next three starts and finished the year rated 99.

1st - bolted up off 76, won with plenty in hand.

2nd - Ran off a 7lb higher mark but found one too good in a field of 16. The 3rd was beaten a SH twice after including off a 4lb higher mark, the 5th Don't Panic won his next two and is now rated 22lb higher than he was then. Big Noise travelled so well in the race and I remember sounding off about the ride he got from Ted Durcan.

He has been raised another 5lb since that run but I believe he is better than an 88 horse and looks set for another good season. Fitness as issue obviously, but he'll pay for it NTO if he does need the run here.

The stable having an 8l winner this week is a bonus.

Big Noise 70% of stake 3.45 betfair

Phluke 15% of stake 7.6 betfair

Plum Pudding 15% of stake 8 betfair

Casts:

Big Noise/Phluke/Plum Pudding

£16.50 F/C Comb

£16.50 T/C Comb If Phluke doesn't run then it’ll be an 80%/20% bet. The F/C would revert to a £50 RFC only.