The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

[billy the punter]

Through my "Personal Trends" thread I found that my results are far superior when concentrating on the higher class of handicaps (Class 3 and above). The difference in strike-rates and profit/losses were staggering. I will be continuing my 'all flat bets' thread in the same way, but will be treating the races that have caused be problems with a little more caution. The research I carried out took an age and if no one objects, in order for the continuation of the research to be easier, I would like to add all my Class 3 and above handicap bets on a seperate thread. I will put singles, F/C's and T/C's on this thread - just as long as they are in Class 3 handicaps or higher. Three seperate running totals will be kept on this thread (singles, F/C's and T/C's). Like I've said numerous times, I prefer these races and my personal staking is always higher on these events. That was the point of my original thread, to highlight strengths. Actually I'm not sure I want to see the results of this research, if this thread doesn't show healthy profits then I'm going to be down the job centre the Monday after the November Handicap! Every Class 3 or higher bets I've selected since the start of the flat season will be on this thread and that will be the case for the rest of the season. It will be a far easier way for me to see the differences between the two classes. No pens, papers and calculators. Many thanks. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes 22nd March

2.50 Doncaster (Hertiage Class2) Zaahid 4 - 60% of stake Don't Panic 9.4 -25% of stake - won Benandonner 23 -5% of stake Trafalgar Square 21 -10% of stake

4.00 Doncaster (Heritage Class2) Rio Riva 33% of stake 11.5 Annesmasse 33% of stake 28 Raptor 33% of stake 24

25th March

4.20 Ponty (Class2)Eradicate 100% of stake

29^th March

3.10 Kempton (Heritage Class2) Philatelist 50% of stake 6.0 >betfair - won Players Please 30% of stake 8.6 >betfair Heron Bay 10% of stake Gold Prospect 10% of stake

1^st April

4.45 Southwell (Class2) Benandonner 75% of stake – won 6/4 Regal Parade 25% of stake 12.5 >betfair

12^th April

3.05 Doncaster (Class2)

Bond City 50% of stake win 9.6 >betfair 45 % of stake place 3.05 >betfair Bigalos Bandit 5% of stake win 32 >betfair

16^th April

5.30 Newmarket (Class2)

Striking Spirit 40% of stake 5.3 >betfair Crystany 30% of stake 7.2 >betfair Mookhlesa 15% 6.8 >betfair Fol Hollow 10% of stake 18 >betfair Calmdownmate 5% of stake 120 >betfair

17^th April

5.30 Newmarket (Class3)

Doctor Freemantle 50% of stake Desert Dreamer 25% of stake 17 >betfair Bronze Cannon 20% of stake 9.6 >betfair - won Ballochroy 5% of stake 44 >betfair

18^th April

2.10 Newbury (Class3)

Generous Thought 40% of stake Choose Your Moment 30% of stake Perfect Act 25% of stake 16 betair Aye Aye Digby 5% of stake 110 >betfair 6.05 Yarmouth (Class3)

Montrachet 100% of stake 4/1 coral

20^th April

2.40 Great Leighs (Class3)

Esteemed Machine 100% of stake – won 6/4

3.50 Great Leighs (Class3)

Rapid City 25% of stake 10/1 various Robustian 35% of stake of stake 6.2 >betfair Haarth Sovereign 25% of stake win 7/1 fred Shela House 15% of stake win 7 >betfair

21^st April

3.10 Ponty (Class2)

Turnkey 50% of stake win 10 >betfair - won 50% of stake place 2.4 >betfair – won

23^rd April

2.55 Nottingham (Heritage Class2)

Eradicate 50% of stake 8 >betfair Cabinet 35% of stake 3.15 >betfair - won Tears Of A Clown 10% of stake 12 >betfair Longspur 5% of stake 50 >betfair

4.05 Nottingham (Class3)

Chief Editor 80% of stake 2.36 >betfair - won Baby Strange 20% of stake 8 >betfair

25^th April

1.15 Sandown (Class2)

Jedediah 25% of stake win 24 >betfair Jedediah 25% of stake place 5 betair Hawaana 50% of stake 4.6 >betfair

2.25 Sandwon (Class2)

Corrybrough 85% of stake 2.3 >betfair - won Fol Hollow 15% of stake 7 >betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes Bets : 17 Winning Bets : 9 S/R : 53% Staked : 17pts Returns : 23.78pts P/L : + 6.78pts Yield : 40%

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes 16th April 5.30 Newmarket - LOSER 17th April Newmarket 5.30 Doctor Freemantle/Desert Dream/Bronze Cannon/Ballochroy £3.50 F/C Comb (12 bets) Doctor Freemantle/Desert Dream/Bronze Cannon/Prime Exhibit £3.50 F/C Comb (12 bets) Doctor Freemantle/Desert Dream/Bronze Cannon £2.65 F/C Comb (6 bets) Doctor Freemantle/Desert Dream/Bronze Cannon/Ballochroy £1.75 T/C Comb (24 bets) Doctor Freemantle/Desert Dream/Bronze Cannon/Prime Exhibit £1.75 T/C Comb (24 bets) Doctor Freemantle/Desert Dream/Bronze Cannon £2.65 T/C Comb (6 bets) 1st Bronze Cannon 2nd Doctor Freemantle 3rd Dream Desert Ex - £24.30 T/C - £145.71 18th April 2.10 Newbury - LOSER 20th April 3.50 Great Leighs - LOSER 21st April 3.10 Ponty Turnkey/Stevie Gee/Genki/Damika £8.25 F/C Comb (12 bets) Turnkey/Stevie Gee/Genki/Damika £4.10 T/C Comb (24 bets) 1st Turnkey 2nd Damika 3rd Stevie Gee Ex - £50.20 T/C - £312.69 23rd April 2.55 Nottingham Eradicate/Cabinet/Tears Of A Clown/Longspur/Best Prospect £2 F/C Comb (20 bets) Eradicate/Cabinet/Tears Of A Clown £10 F/C Comb 1st Cabinet 2nd Eradicate Ex - £17.90 T/C - LOSER 23rd April 4.05 Nottingham - LOSER 25th April Sandown 1.15 - LOSER 25th April 2.25 Sandown F/C - LOSER Corrybrough/Fol Hollow/Rash Judgement £6 T/C Comb Corrybrough/Chartist/Fol Hollow £6 T/C Comb Corrybrough/Chartist/Rash Judgement £4 T/C Comb Chartist/Rash Judgement/Fol Hollow 50p T/C Comb 1st Corrybrough 2nd Chartist 3rd Rash Judgement T/C - £42.10 Higher Class F/C's Bets : 9 Winning Bets : 3 S/R : 33% Staked : £900 Returns : £863.45 P/L : - £36.55 Yield : 0% Higher Class T/C's Bets : 9 Winning Bets : 3 S/R : 33% Staked : £900 Returns : £2346.61 P/L : + £1446.61 Yield : 161%

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes Saturday 26th April 2.30 Ripon I backed Ink Spot at a big price when he finished 2nd to Van Bossed here last week. I was really impressed with how the winner travelled that day, he was the winner at half way. Bar Lord Sandicliffe/Tawzeea there doesn't seem to be anything in the race to be worried about. My only worry is if they improve for their handicap debut. However, even if they do I would be surprised in they would be good enough to trouble Van Bossed off a 9lb higher mark. Van Bossed 100% of stake 3.85 betfair 3.40 Ripon Bogside Theatre is on my list of horses to follow this season and could be the value to upset the underpriced Highland Legacy. Her last season form on good or softer ground reads 1102 (she was 33/1 on the unplaced run). She ran above her form LTO when out of her depth and I think she is handicapped to win a fair staying prize this season. Bogside Theatre 50% of stake win 9.6 betfair Bogside Theatre 50% of stake place 2.5 betfair 5.05 Sandown Quote:

Cape Hawk's 2nd to Lucarno and win beating Malt Or Mash read very well now, as does his 1l 4th in the London Mile Final here in September. Hasn't been seen since and lightly raced for his age (especially for a Hannon horse) so he is obviously hard to keep right or had problems. He is 2/4 here, the two defeats were 2nd to Lucarno (an impossible task) and a close up 4th of 15 mentioned above. Obvious claims if all is well.

That is what I wrote about Cape Hawk before his last run and he did go on to win. He travelled like a dream in that race and had the race sewn up a long way from home. He acts on turf and despite a 9lb hike he is still well handicapped on the best of his form and is likely to improve further. This race looks a total match between him and Jamboretta. She is another one my shortlist this year and I am confident her current handicap mark of 85 will look very lenient when looking back at the end of the season. I will probably follow her all season so will take a chance on her here even though the drop back to a mile is far from ideal and the easy ground is an unknown. If Cape Hawk is too good for her today I'm sure I'll get my money back before long. Jamboretta 100% of stake -------------------------------------- Casts: Ripon 2.30 Van Bossed/Lord Sandicliffe/Tawzeea £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Ripon 3.40 Bogside Theatre/Highland Legacy £23 RFC Bogside Theatre/Highland Legacy/Sadlers Kingdom £9 F/C Comb Bogside Theatre/Highland Legacy/Sadlers Kingdom £16.50 T/C Comb Sandown 5.05 Cape Hawk/Jamboretta £50 RFC

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes Billy, Think you are doing the right thing by concentrating on better class handicaps. It is easier to study form of class 3 and above handicaps. Where as poorer races tend to be better for the "in the know" punter who has "heard something". Though I do have the occaisional class 4 bet if I am going racing or particularly good draw bias etc, the vast majority of my bets are in the better class races.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes

Billy, Think you are doing the right thing by concentrating on better class handicaps. It is easier to study form of class 3 and above handicaps. Where as poorer races tend to be better for the "in the know" punter who has "heard something". Though I do have the occaisional class 4 bet if I am going racing or particularly good draw bias etc, the vast majority of my bets are in the better class races.

Interestingly, although my record in class4 was ok (33% 7/21), I noticed that two of those were unbeaten and four were Class2+ horses very recently. So they were all higher class horses (the unbeaten ones potentially high class). I just think that the way I look at things works better for better races/horses, like you say above. I have always concentrated on these races to some extent, but it will even more the case now. I had no idea the result gap was big - we have selectivd memories when looking back at out punting which is why keeping records and studying them is imperative.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes Billy, Be careful though in chucking particular types of racing. I had a very poor record with sprintersa couple of years ago. Almost gave up betting in them, but chose to scrap most handicaps. Then last season backed Soldiers Tale 20/1 Jubilee, Sakhees Secret 13/2 (ante-post) July Cup, Moorehouse Lad 24/1 King George, Kingsgate Native 14/1 Nunthorpe and Benbaun 7/1 Abbeye. (Did back more than one horse in each race but they were all main bets). Picked Zidane in a rare sprint handicap bet. Also, as well as strike rate, look at price. Can not hope to have an equal strike rate in competitive handicaps as less competitive conditions races.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes Billy, I do not like "systems" but there is one that has worked for me at Goodwood for many years. Will tell you it, if I see you there this season. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes The thing is, I'm basing these theories on years of selecting. I knew this was the case, it's just been easier to prove as I've had 100 or so bets on here. With distances I'm ok, there is no bias, it's just basically the class for me. And Kempton, which I'm certain is only down to it being different to the other tracks and therefore sometimes form is misleading across the courses. Yes I will be at Goodwood, love it. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes

Saturday 26th April 2.30 Ripon Van Bossed 100% of stake 3.85 betfair 3.40 Ripon Bogside Theatre 50% of stake win 9.6 betfair Bogside Theatre 50% of stake place 2.5 betfair 5.05 Sandown Jamboretta 100% of stake -------------------------------------- Casts: Ripon 2.30 Van Bossed/Lord Sandicliffe/Tawzeea £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Ripon 3.40 Bogside Theatre/Highland Legacy £23 RFC Bogside Theatre/Highland Legacy/Sadlers Kingdom £9 F/C Comb Bogside Theatre/Highland Legacy/Sadlers Kingdom £16.50 T/C Comb Sandown 5.05 Cape Hawk/Jamboretta £50 RFC

Over the moon with the first 'live' day of this thread. 100% record, three winning bets from three; Van Bossed - won (3.85) Bogside Theatre - 2nd EW (2.5 place) Jamboretta - won (5/2) Bets : 20 Winning Bets : 12 S/R : 60% Staked : 20pts Returns : 32.38pts P/L : + 12.38pts Yield : 62% Hope you'll see the real BTP on this thread. ;) ------------------------------ As for the casts, 1st and 3rd in 2.30 Ripon. Winner and no 2nd in the 5.05 Sandown. But in the 3.40 Ripon: 1st Highland Legacy 2nd Bogside Theatre Ex : £9.10 Please as this was the banker F/C in the race. Higher Class F/C's Bets : 12 Winning Bets : 4 S/R : 33% Staked : £1200 Returns : £1154.65 P/L : - £45.35 Yield : 0% Higher Class T/C's Bets : 11 Winning Bets : 3 S/R : 27% Staked : £1100 Returns : £2346.61 P/L : + £1246.61 Yield : 113%

[bowles10]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) dont mean to be picky Billy, isnt it 3 from 4 today as Bogside was 2 bets, one of which came in but the win part lost. great day though, keep it up.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

dont mean to be picky Billy, isnt it 3 from 4 today as Bogside was 2 bets, one of which came in but the win part lost. great day though, keep it up.

Nah it's an EW bet. I just state it as win and place as I'm a betfair player. I think everyone counts EW and one bet on here? On their threads I mean. It is 0.5pt E/W, if it were 1pt win, 1pt place then I'd say yes. Cheers mate :ok

[bowles10]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Nah it's an EW bet. I just state it as win and place as I'm a betfair player. I think everyone counts EW and one bet on here? On their threads I mean. It is 0.5pt E/W, if it were 1pt win, 1pt place then I'd say yes. Cheers mate :ok

Gotcha:ok It was just the way it was written that confused me.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) No probs pal. It's that pesky betfair. Win & place. It's like being at the dogs in the old days. :D

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.30 Yarmouth (Class3) I was impressed with Royal Rocks last year and he is a horse I think can go well this season. I backed him on his penultimate start last year, which was his first attempt on soft ground. I was a little worried about the going that night so I made the effort and watched him move to post. After seeing his action I was convinced that he would not only act on soft but likely that he would be better on soft. He sluiced up. He disappointed on faster ground on his final start. The quicker ground is obviously a worry here but I believe this horse is extremely well handicapped and could be a class above. I think that as long as he can run to 75% of his ability, he should take this. If he doesn't run his race then surely Blue Tomato will be the one to benefit. He came back to form on his first run for the new yard on his seasonal debut. He ran a lot better than his form-line suggests LTO as he would've hated the soft ground and he ran alongside the stands side rail. The leading horses all came down the middle. He will be more at home with conditions here, and I would expect him to turn the tables with Ingleby Arch. Royal Rocks 50% of stake 4.5 betfair Blue Tomato 50% of stake 5 betfair ----------- Casts: Royal Rocks/Blue Tomato £50 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Sorry should read Class2

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Although I took under the odds on Royal Rocks (returned 4/1), he was a good winner - I stated that he only had to run to 75% of his ability to win this and he has clearly got a bright future. It was another winning bet continuing my 100% (4/4) record since this thread went live on Saturday. 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 21 Winning Bets : 13 S/R : 62% Staked : 21pts Returns : 34.63pts P/L : + 13.63pts Yield : 65%

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 9.05 Wolverhampton (Class 3) I was very sweet on Gold Prospect LTO and wrote this:

I backed Gold Prospect as a saver in the Rosebery but I think he needed the run. I backed him on his two A/W starts last year and he ran well to finish 2nd (should've won) and 1st. He has disappointed four times on the turf and I think he may prefer the dirt. The race he finished 2nd in above was his handicap debut, he would've won that day with a better ride. He was off 77 that day and being as he was unlucky AND won since, you could say he is pretty well in here off just 79. His drop in the handicap is due to his poor turf runs, if I'm right about him prefering the dirt then he could be a snip. Jamie Spencer has a 35% S/R for the yard on the A/W. Only negative is the trip, he wants further ideally and there is unlikely to be much pace on. I'm hoping he has the class to overcome this.

He won despite getting left around three lengths at the start. All the above still applies, I still believe he is at home on the A/W, 2/2 here. He only went up 4lb for that win so is still fairly handicapped in my opinion. Jamie is now 36% for Bell on the A/W and it will be interesting if he does take this mount (as declared) as it is his only mount of the evening. Curzon Prince ran a cracker LTO and is 432 on the A/W, he was only beaten a length on the 4th and clearly goes well on dirt. The trainer had a winner yesterday and is my idea of the danger, although it's not certain that this is his trip. Although Princess Cocoa was beaten in a claimer LTO she is very geniune. If I discount her three runs on easy ground (which she hates). She has made the frame on 88% of her races. 14 placed or better efforts from 16 starts. The two unplaced runs were 5/16 and 4/7 (over a too far 11f). She cost under 7k - owners dream. Ok, she hasn't won that much prize money for her consistency but clearly gives her all every time she is on the course. Closely weighted with Curzon Prince. I'm tempted to take the 9/4 on offer now on Gold Prospect as he has been well backed when victorious, although this is a competitive little race. I will go in for half the money at the price. Gold Prospect 100% of stake 3.25 betfair ------------------------ Casts: Gold Prospect/Curzon Prince/Princess Cocoa £6 F/C Comb Gold Prospect/Princess Cocoa £16 SFC Gold Prospect/Curzon Prince £27 SFC Princess Cocoa/Gold Prospect £6 SFC Curzon Prince/Gold Prospect £15 F/C

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Gutted that Scamperdale is a NR, I really didn't fancy this. It has ruined the market. I may not have played this race if I had known. The price I advised has been amended to 2.57 with the deductions. I will edit the F/C bets otherwise I will be taking long odds on.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.05 Ponty Born Tobouggie, Ella, and Lady Friend are all in my notebook and unfortunately they all meet here. That has happened a few times this year and has eat into profits as a result. All should like the ground and I think there are races in all of them off of their current handicap marks. Ella looked the winner LTO but paid for going off too quick, the form is working out too. Ella 50% of stake 4.3 betair Born Tobouggie 40% of stake 2.22 betfair Lady Friend 10% of stake 7 betfair ---------------------------------- Ella/Born Tobouggie/Lady Friend £10 F/C Comb Ella/Born Tobougie £20 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

4.05 Ponty Born Tobouggie, Ella, and Lady Friend are all in my notebook and unfortunately they all meet here. That has happened a few times this year and has eat into profits as a result. All should like the ground and I think there are races in all of them off of their current handicap marks. Ella looked the winner LTO but paid for going off too quick, the form is working out too. Ella 50% of stake 4.3 betair Born Tobouggie 40% of stake 2.22 betfair Lady Friend 10% of stake 7 betfair ---------------------------------- Ella/Born Tobouggie/Lady Friend £10 F/C Comb Ella/Born Tobougie £20 RFC

Yesterday - bit angry with the way things worked out. Gold Prospect was well beaten although as I mentioned I would not have been involved in the race if I knew Scamperdale was going to be a N/R. It changed the whole complex of the race and too out any valuel. My danger won the race but I failed to get the F/C up. Back to normal today, Ella was the main selection and she won well, the main F/C copped too. 1st Ella (4.3) 2nd Born Tobouggie Ex: £8.10 Really pleased with the way this thread has started. Another winning bet today, the only selection, to make it an 83% S/R (5/6) since I went live with this last Saturday. Continues the season-long success in these races. 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 23 Winning Bets : 14 S/R : 61% Staked : 23pts Returns : 36.78pts P/L : + 13.78pts Yield : 60% ----------------- Two losing F/C's (Mon/Tue) before today's winner. Upper Class F/C's Bets : 15 Winning Bets : 5 S/R : 33% Staked : £1500 Returns : £1397.65 P/L : - £102.35 Yield : -7% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 11 Winning Bets : 3 S/R : 27% Staked : £1100 Returns : £2346.61 P/L : + £1246.61 Yield : 113%

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Won well Bill, I think it was 5 lengths. :clap:clap

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Musselburgh 4.50 (Class3) The race of the day in my opinion. Stevie Gee has run two crackers recently and will love these conditions (easy 7f on slow ground). He hasn't got many miles on the clock and is still well handicapped on his 2yo form. There should be more to come this season. However there maybe other runners that are also well handicapped but are fair more attractively priced. Cha Cha Cha won here last season over 7f (due to a peach of a ride by Jamie Spencer, and won again here over 7f on her turf debut this season. On her next start at Donny she drifted badly, was left at the start and never really travelled for young Brian McHugh - she did run on to finish 3rd though, pulling well clear of the remainder. There has been a winner or two behind (including Stevie Gee a 16l 7th). I backed her LTO (back here) as part of a T/C although I was certain the mile would be too far for her. She was cruising two out and looked the winner, as expected though she didn't get home and finished 3rd to two well handicapped animals (Ansells Pride & Regal Parade). It was a great run against those and she would've won had she stayed, I'm convinced of that. Proving that she is still progressive and well handicapped. Back to her trip here (7f), her record here is 113 and her record for Callan is 1313. On all the book she must win or go close. Skhilling Spirit is a frustrating type but clearly useful on his day and has slipped to a fair mark. He ran a blinder in the Spring Cup to finish 6th after getting left (normal for him). He is 5lb lower here and would figure if he doesn't fluff his lines. He hasn't won since 2006 but most of those runs haven't come at his ideal trip. I belive 7f on easy ground are his ideal conditions and his career record when encountering that reads 22230 (with the unplaced run he missed break again and was hampered). Stoic Leader loves it here, is off a low mark and ran well LTO. This may be too hot a race though. Cha Cha Cha 50% of stake 6 betfair Skhilling Spirit 20% of stake Stevie Gee 30% of stake 3.35 betfair Casts: Cha Cha Cha/Stevie Gee/Skhilling Spirit £16.50 F/C Comb Cha Cha Cha/Stevie Gee/Skhilling Spirit £9.65 T/C Comb Cha Cha Cha/Stevie Gee/Skhilling Spirit/Stoic Leader £1.75 T/C Comb (24 bets) Lingfield 4.10 (Class2) I watched the Rosebery again earlier and noticed something I missed at the time. As I backed the winner and backed three others my viewing of the race had revolved around those. I knew Pinch Of Salt was unlucky in running, but until earlier I didn't realise just how unlucky he was. Was travelling in about 5th but was short of room when making a challenge and was shuffled back to last. Somehow he managed to fly past most of the field but again was short of room inside the last when challenging for the places. No quesion, Pinch Of Salt would've finished 4th win a run. Possibly closer, I estimate he would've been beaten no more than 2l. Mr Aviator finished half a length 2nd but is 8lb worse off with Pinch Of Salt at the weights. Watamu was well behind after running up with the pace, that was his first run for the best part of a year so this formline doesn't tell us anything. I'm a little worried that the 10f may be a little sharp for Pinch Of Salt and all his A/W form is at Kempton, handling Lingfield is taken on trust. The stable are in form and the price is big enough to take a chance despite the above two concerns. Pinch Of Salt 50% of stake win 6.8 betfair Pinch Of Salt 50% of stake place 2.7 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Bit annoyed as I should have left out Steve gee and that way would have a nice profit. Also a forgot to put the price for the winner. I took over fives last night. Will settle at sp. Really close with the cast bets. Pinch of salt ran its race but was just out the frame suffering for challenging up the inner. This is from my blackberry so sorry if its jumbled. Wanted to try out my new toy.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.25 Newmarket (Heritage Class2) A fantastic 25 runner sprint handicap, this is what punting is all about. My initial shortlist here is Hogmaneigh, Genki, Damika, Tajneed, Northern Dare, Baby Strange. Hogmaneigh - usaully comes on for his 2nd run of the season, winning on his 2nd start in the past two seasons. He is only 2lb higher than his Derby Dash win. His form tailed off a bit after that but that the same happened the year before. He may be an early season type and now might be the best time to catch him. Genki - I was really impressed with him last year, it's tough for a sprinter at three but he more than held his own, I thought he was a cert to win a big handicap this season. I nearly selected him on his debut but I was worried about the soft ground, he ran a cracker in 4th as I really believe he is at his best on quicker ground. His form on good or faster reads 121121. He has never been beaten more than 2l in a handicap and I wouldn't be surprised if he turned into a Listed/Group 3 sprinter. Stable form is still an issue with me however. Damika - Ran 4th to Cape on his seasonal debut and I really like the form of that race. Is 2lb worse off for beating Genki a length LTO and although I expect Genki to turn the tables he has to be included as they are so closely weighted. I'm not sure he has the class to win a race of this class however. Tajneed - Finished 3rd under inexperienced apprentine in Cape's win at Doncaster (Damika 4th) and franked that form when bolting up next time up. Has been clobbered by the handicapper for that and is wrong at the weights with Damika and Baby Strange, although ran well under similar marks in the past. Northern Dare - Ran a blinder in the Ayr Silver Cup and is weighted to reverse form with King's Apostle. Went off fav on his seasonal debut at the Curragh and was a respectable 3rd. The form couldn't have worked out better with the 1st, 2nd, and 4th winning. Sure to make a bold bid from the front. Slight concern about the ground, would prefer it easier I think. Baby Strange - Came back to form to finish 2nd to Cape in the race mentioned above (weighted to confirm places with Damika and Tajneed). He went up 2lb for that and I was very sweet on his chances LTO. I was a little worried about the drop back to 5f that day and it was indeed too sharp for him. He looked a certain future winner at 6f. He is very well handicapped on his 2yo form where he was a Listed winner and place in a Group 2. May want softer ground and this may be a little competitive for him but looks sure to striker soon. Genki 40% of stake 15/2 fred Baby Strange 20% of stake 32 betfair Northern Dare 20% of stake 8.6 betfair Tajneed 7.5% of stake 11.5 betfair Damika 5% of stake 19.5 betfair Hogmaneigh 7.5% of stake 27 betfair 5.10 Newmarket (Class 2) Surely the only thing that can beat Dr Faustus is fitness. Given an impossible task on his second start when running into Spacious over 7f. We all know how good that form is. He won with plenty in hand on his final 2yo start in a race that also worked out well. He is certain to appreciate the step up to 10f being he is by Sadlers Wells, which makes the 7f 2nd to Spacious look even better. I really think the handicapper has made a mistake with him. If he turns up 75% fit I can't see him getting beat. Dr Faustus 100% of stake 2.84 betfair 2.30 Goodwood (Class 3) Milne Garden is another horse of mine to follow this year. I was really impressed with his performance on his 2nd and final start this year. He is another who will take advantage of a lenient mark this year. Jeremy Noseda is going well and he has found the weakest class 3 handicap in history. The extened 9f at Goodwood would be on the sharp side for him but I'm following him blind until I see a reason not to. Milne Garden 100% of stake 1.69 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.45 Thirsk (Class 2) Regal Parade nearly made my short-list on his seasonal debut and I did back him on his two starts thereafter. He has run well in all three of those runs. FTO he was fifth in the Spring Cup despite looking like he needed the run. He was very unlucky (formline does not do justice) at Southwell NTO when narrowly beaten by Benandonner - he would've won had he not been short of room twice from the bend onwards. That is top class handicap form. He ran another decent race on his last start, 2nd again at Musselburgh running into another fairly treated type. He has lost nothing in defeat this season, and although has crept up the weights looks sure to give another fins account of himself. I've always thought there were races in his this year and I still think he is well handicapped. Jockey is a big worry for me however. His stablemate White Deer looks like he is coming into form, although I believe he acts better on quicker ground. We know very little about Extraterrestial who has recently joined Richard Fahey from Kevin Prendegast. What we do know is that he is very well handicapped on last years 3yo form in Ireland. He loooked as though he is coming back to form LTO when 2nd in a decent handicap which is working out. Will like this easier ground more and must be included. Draw is a slight concern, Hanagan will have to get his position sorted before the turn. Could be a steal at 18,000gns. Extraterrestial 60% of stake 4.1 betfair Regal Parade 40% of stake 7.6 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Casts 3.45 Thirsk Extraterrestial/Regal Parade/White Deer £7.30 F/C Comb Extraterrestial/Regal Parade/Flipando £7.30 F/C Comb Extraterrestial/Regal Parade/Rio Riva £2 F/C Comb Extraterrestial/Regal Parade/White Deer/Flipando £2.90 T/C Comb (24 bets) Extraterrestial/Regal Parade/White Deer/Flipando/Rio Riva 50p T/C Comb (60 bets) 2.30 Goodwood Milne Garden/Zero Cool £30 SFC £10 RFC Milne Garden/Robustian £30 SFC £10 RFC Milne Garden/Zero Cool/Robustian £16.50 T/C Comb 4.00 Newmarket Genki/Northern Dare/Baby Strange/Damika/Tajneed/Hogmaneigh £2 F/C Comb (30 bets) Genki/Northern Dare/Damika/Baby Strange £1 F/C Comb (12 bets) Genki/Northern Dare/Damika/Hogmaneigh £1 F/C Comb (12 bets) Genki/Northern Dare/Tajneed £1 F/C Comb Genkie/Northern Dare £5 RFC Genki/Northern Dare/Baby Strange/Damika/Tajneed/Hogmaneigh 40p T/C Comb 120 bets Genki/Northern Dare/Baby Strange/Damika/Tajneed 40p T/C Comb (60 bets) Genki/Northern Dare/Damika/Tajneed/Hogmaneigh 40p T/C Comb (60 bets) Genki/Northern Dare/Damika 65p T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Friday (-1pt): Had the winner from in the first race, Skhilling Spirit (4/1), although disappointed to only break level on the race. I should've left Stevie Gee out as going three-handed represented little value. I also forgot to put the price up for the winner too. Cha Cha Cha, the main bet of the race, was a little unlucky, she lost a few lengths at the start and that probably cost her 2nd place. Really unlucky with the F/C and T/C combos, had 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th. Pinch Of Salt ran his race but just finished out of the frame. I wasn't surprised, it was more of a value bet as I imagine him to be closer to Mr Aviator than the betting suggest, which was correct. Not happy with Dwyer challenging up the inner though. Saturday (+2.99pts): Fully expected to show a profit today, had three winners from four bets and was only beaten a short head in the losing race. Milne Graden's (1.69) blistering turn of foot got him out of trouble and I will continue to follow him. Was a bit unlucky in the sprint at 4.00. Damika (19.5) was beaten a sh and Baby Strange (34) wasn't beaten far in 4th after a less that clear run. Three of mine finished in the first six home, close but no cigar. Had a pleasing 1-2 at Thirsk with the main bet winning, although I took under the odds on the winner Extraterrestial (4.1). The nap was in the 5.10. I really couln't see Dr Faustus getting beat, I knew the 2.84 I took was over the odds. With the casts, didn't get the 2nd to Milne Graden, but had a nice £17.30 exacta (Extraterrestial/Regal Parade) at Thirsk, although it should've been a £50 RFC instead of a combo, second guessing myself a bit on those of late. Unlucky as stated in the sprint, four of my combo horses were in the first eight home. I really am unltra-confident with this thread and its shown a 75% S/R (9/12) since I went live with this last Saturday. Continues the season-long success in these races. 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 29 Winning Bets : 18 S/R : 62% Staked : 29pts Returns : 44.77pts P/L : + 15.77pts Yield : 54% ----------------- Upper Class F/C's Bets : 19 Winning Bets : 6 S/R : 32% Staked : £1900 Returns : £1684.83 P/L : - £215.17 Yield : -11% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 15 Winning Bets : 3 S/R : 20% Staked : £1500 Returns : £2346.61 P/L : + £846.61 Yield : 56%

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Newmarket 2.05 (Heritage Class2) A tricky affair with most of the fancied runners making their seasonal debuts. I have narrowed it down to Many Volumes, Laa Rayb, Fishforcompliments, Supaseus, Oceana Gold and Vainglory. Before I start, I have a feeling the draw will be important here, as it was last year when high numbers were at a disadvantage. It all depends were Oceana Gold goes, he is the most likely high drawn to lead and if he edges left, or fails to get to the front, we could have a repeat of a the 2000 Guineas where the entire field drift left. Many Volumes - His 5th of 17 at Goodwood in August reads very well considering he had to give weight to Pipedreamer, Mr Aviator, Buccelleti and Smokey Oakey. He is 6lb higher here but did win comfortably after that before finishing 2nd to the useful Kirklees again giving away 5lb. So his mark is fair. 2lb better off with Gulf Express for a neck defeat LTO. Stable flying. Drawn 16. Laa Rayb - He did me a few favours last year at nice prices and I think he starts this year on a fair mark, only a 1lb higher than getting touched off in a nice handicap at Chester. The season started brightly for him, tailed off for a run or two then he bounced back to form, he was a little inconsistent and looked an awkward ride at times. His best form (and 3 of his 4 wins) were at tight, handy tracks (Southwell, Goodwood, Chester). I think these tracks kept him busy and stopped him thinking, so therefore this track is a worry. He has been gelded though, and that could iron out all his creases. Sure to win more races this year, but acting here is a worry, only taking a chance here due to the gelding op. Drawn 13. Fishforcompliments - Was highly tried and two and three (ran in Guineas) but showed his best form for some time on his seasonal debut this year, his first handicap run. Is interesting this season now he has found his level but there is a doubt over him getting the 9f. Big price though. Drawn 7. Supaseus - Took this last year and followed it up with a great effort in the Hunt Cup (2lb lower here), ran below par on his final two starts - no disgrace though as it is probably a step too far to expect him to continue to peak given his trailblazing style. He doesn't take much racing and he clearly goes well fresh. If I ignore his racecourse debut (66/1), then his form when at least 10 weeks between runs reads 111. They are his only three career wins. If you think he is going to win a race this year then you must back him here, simple as. Sure to make a bold bid stands side. John Egan on board for all his better runs over the past two seasons. Drawn 5. Oceana Gold - The 2nd to Bankable (although well held by him) reads ok, but is 4lb higher and this trip could find him out. Drawn 15. Vainglory - Massive price this one. Well handicapped on bits and pieces of form (unlucky not to beat Vitznau/placed behind Don't Panic and Fremen) and was not disgraced out in Dubai this season. He is sure to start fulfilling his potential now he is being tried over longer trips. Like I say ran ok in Dubai over 10f and his form in this country at 9f or more reads one win and an 8th in a Listed race (beaten 3l) - ran above form on all starts over 9f. Drawn 8. Proponent will have his supporters but I couldn't back a Charlton horse to beat my nephews tortoise at the moment. Supaseus 45% of stake 11 betfair Many Volumes 25% of stake 10.5 betfair Laa Rayb 20% of stake 19 betfair Fishforcompliments 10% of stake 26 betfair Supaseus/Many Volumes/Laa Rayb/Fishforcompliments/Gulf Express/Oceana Gold £3.30 F/C Comb (30 bets) Supaseus/Many Volumes/Laa Rayb/Fishforcompliments/Gulf Express/Oceana Gold 80p T/C Comb (120 bets) Salisbury 2.25 (Class 2) I backed Calmdownmate at over a 100/1 LTO and he ran ok. He travelled on the bridle for quite a while and took the near side along for most of the race. His 2yo form over 6f is very decent, he failed to stay 7f on his final two starts so they can be ignored. He may need to come down a pound or two but is overpriced here so will have an interest. Fathsta beat Calmdownmate 3.5l (2lb worse off) in that run but had the benefit of fitness. Restless Genius was impressive LTO, but beat little, the handicapper hasn't been too hard on him though. Oasis Wind seemed to hate the very soft ground on it's seasonal debut. Would have to bounce back here but took on some decent types at two and this is a more realistic level. Calmdownmate 20% of stake win 42 betfair Calmdownmate 20% of stake place 9 betfair Fathsta 15% of stake 9.2 betfair Restless Genius 20% of stake 5.7 betfair Oasis Wind 25% of stake 9 betfair Calmdownmate/Fathsta/Restless Genius/Oasis Wind £8.25 F/C Comb (12 bets) £4.10 T/C Comb (24 bets)