The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

5.05 Emerald Steel Handicap (Class 3) Main Aim and Kalahari Gold won divisions of the same maiden at Salisbury last month and have both been given a mark of 85. The 2nd to Kalahari Gold has come out and won and there were two horses (questionably) rated 85 and 83 out the frame. Both did well to win but I got the impression Main Aim would prove to be the better horse. He was well fancied for his race (5/4 on), the 2nd is now rated 80 and the rating is justified. I feel the handicapper has taken a real chance by giving Main Aim a mark as low as 85. I wouldn't be surprised if Nezami left his form of last time behind and showed the form on his penultimate start - he is overpriced here. Opus Maximus has been a little in and out this year but he can be competitive off this mark and I think he'll be winning again soon. He would've been closer with a run LTO. I think 7f is his trip but this could be a touch warm for him. Main Aim 75% of stake 2.4 betfair Kalahari Gold 15% of stake 8.2 betfair Opus Maximus 10% of stake 17 betfair Main Aim/Kalahari Gold/Opus Maximus/Nezami £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

Kalahari Gold NR. After deductions Main Aim 75% of stake 2.18 betfair Opus Maximus 10% of stake 15.5 betfair Going to add the 15% NR money to: Main Aim 10% of stake 1.7 betfair Opus Maximus 5% of stake 30 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.40 - Main bet NR, lost 0.3pts 3.35 - Banker won and 53/1 exacta copped, won 1.5pts 4.45 - Poor, lost 1pt 5.05 - Main bet won, won 0.8pts Around a 1pt profit. Will take that.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Been without internet since Sunday morning due to a storm in my area. Makes life hard. Managed to be in profit over the three days despite though - although Monday night was tough. Still only have limited access so I'm off to Lingfield later. 1.30 Newmarket (Class 2) Many of these are dropping down in class after failing in Listed Class or higher. That isn't something I like in these high grade handicaps and with there not much solid handicap form on offer, I'm going with the two horses going the other way. Red Dune has always been well though of. She ruined her chances by pulling too hard on her reappearance, she looked very fresh that night, bolted out the stalls and was very keen. She lost nothing in defeat however as the one length winner Illusion went on to finished 2nd off 86 in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot before getting collared late in a decent Listed race last week. Won easily enough LTO and her mark of 83 looks very fair. Not 100% the drop to 7f is a good thing. Jarvis spoke about her being a 10f horse over the winter and her breeding backs up that opinion. Badweia went off fav for her debut although the yard's runenrs usually come on for the run. She ran well enough and was upped in trip for her 2nd start but still failed to get home - again ran ok though and both maidens were an ok standard. She was dropped to 6f (soft)for her third start and she won with a bit in hand. The 2nd won NTO and although didn't figure was backed off the boards on Saturday off a mark of 80. Badweia has only been given a mark of 78 and I believe that is also very fair. It's hard to tell what the ground is going to be like but it's likely to have some juice in it and any easing would aid Badweia's chances. Badweia 50% of stake 6.4 betfair Red Dune 50% of stake 3.15 betfair £50RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.00 Newmarket (Class 2) BTP's patten pending pace-check: :lol

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The bias changes from year to year regardless of ground with highs and lows dominating on recent easy ground renewels. Pace is the only guide in my opinion. There is bundles of pace in the race so there really shouldn't be any major excuses - almost half the field like to be front rank plus. Low seems to have more pace though and with only one front runner drawn high (Great Charm) I think lows could have the edge. With four of the top five in the betting drawn 14 or higher, I'm getting stuck into some value drawn low. Carleton did well to finish 2nd to Ancien Regime despite being flattered by the distance due to the winner hanging. He disappointed NTO at York but I rarely worry about York form so I put him in with a chance here - acts on most going. Thebes is a big price and he ran better than the form suggests at Ascot (didn't stay), looks sure to be taken on for the lead though. With so much early toe in the race I wouldn't be surprised if this was set up for a finisher (providing they get a run!) - the most likely to fit that profile would be Cape Vale who I've backed fairly big on his previous two starts. Unbeaten at two he took my eye and was always going to be a horse I was going to be backing this year in handicaps. I decided to watch on his first start as I was worried about the drop to 5f. Despite the trip being against him (and the draw) he ran a fine race to finish 4th (Hamish McGonagall 2nd). I lumped on for his 2nd start (Haydock) and the air was blue in the BTP household after he was beaten a head, just failing to get up after losing his place at halfway - he shoulda, coulda won. The form of the race has worked out very well - 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th all winning handicaps soon after. I thought he was worth a try at 7f for this next start (4lb higher) but I was disappointed with his run into 5th. He wasn't beaten by non-staying alone but I do feel he is a sprinter - perhaps the going was on the quick side too. Looks ideally boxed in three and if he gets the breaks then I can see him running a big race. Yard took this with a similar type in Tax Free in 2005 and although Cape Vale would do well to emaulate him, I wouldn't be surprised if he took this and went on to bigger things. I've had him in mind for this since I saw the decs and thought he'd be much shorter in the betting. Cape Vale 40% of stake E/W 14/1 Lads Cape Vale 5% of stake win 14/1 Lads Carleton 7.5% of stake 16/1 Blue Sq Thebes 7.5% of stake 26 betfair Both Cape Value and Carleton are shorter on betfair so I would think the prices I've quoted above will be gone soon after opening. I personally have taken around those prices on betfair earlier, they have since shortened up a touch. Cape Vale/Carleton/Thebes/Kaldoun Kingdom £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) My internet access is finally back to normal - it's almost been impossible over the past few days. Backed the winner (as well as three others) in the 2.35 so the thread has been robbed of a few points! ;) Sorry for the after timing but I had tipped Jedidiah at least once this year and I like to follow them till they win. It's been half hour without cutting out so I hope all is ok - how did we cope without internet in the past? I believe it would've been almost impossible to make a living at this game in those days - unless you had other 'help' obviously. Only the one nice handicap left today. 4.55 I thought Sundae was in for a good year this year but so far he's been disappointing. I backed him last time and he never showed at all. Will be more at home on this easier ground (although it's only just slower than good) but I can't back him at 4/1. He wouldn't be much shorter if you based it on his best form only - so that seems short given his run last time and his inconsistent form since last year. That best form I talk about was when Sundae was 3rd in the Silver Cup at Ayr. At the time I thought the front three put in a great performance and over time it has proved to be a decent race. The winner Utmost Respect has gone up a level and has cemented his place firmly in that level and the 2nd Northern Dare runs here. I also thought Northern Dare could have a good year but so far due to running in Ireland I've hardly backed him. He finished 2nd FTO at the Curragh: 1st Snaffell 2nd Raptor 3rd Northern Dare (off 88) looked the winner 1 out but weakened btn 1.75l Raptor won NTO and Snaffell beat Tax Free NTO before finishing 3rd in a G3. Although it was a decent race NTO I thought he was disappointing when 12th of 24 (btn 5l) at Newmarket - he again weakened last on. Back to form on his 3rd race this season when a one length 4th to Barney McGrew when racing off 87. He again weakened late inside the last. It was back to the Curragh for his run LTO and he ran another fine race, finishing 2nd of 22 again off a mark of 87. I've no idea about the form but I know that 22 runner Irish sprint handicaps are tough and this must be viewed as another fine performance, especailly has he pulled 3.5l clear of the 3rd. He is due to go up 5lb in future but runs here off thar mark of 87. He looks well handicap on the run LTO and looks especially well handicapped on the run FTO at the Curragh - and of course on the Silver Cup run spoken of earlier. I'll be amazed if he doesn't win or go close here. The 5f may suit better than 6f as he has been struggling to get home at times. He would have a chance off this mark in a hot Class 3 handicap but in this depleted race he looks a good thing. Sundae only has a 6lb pull for 3.5l in that Silver Cup run and as Northern Dare looks to have improved while Sundae has been inconsistent I really can't understand how they are so close in the betting. I backed Prior Warning at Royal Ascot but he ran no race. Would prefer this going and is closely weighted with Northern Dare on the Newmarket race. Northern Dare 95% of stake 3.1 betfair (I'd like to know who laid the 5.44) Prior Warning 5% of stake 34 betfair £50 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 33/1 2nd yesterday and the main bet didn't get the best of rides/runs. I just can't get the Nicholls stable right at the moment. Short of time so will be brief here. 3.35 Ascot (Class 3) Roaring Forte went into many notebooks after his debut 4th at Newmarket. He went of 1/10 for his next start and break the 2yo record at Lingfield despite easing down. Looks a good prospect, especially given his mark of 82 but had the Dante meeting as his original target - so he may've had a set-back. I selected Kalahari Gold LTO when he was a NR (last Saturday in a race won by Main Aim). He and Main Aim won FTO on the same day at Salisbury. I felt that Main Aim was just the better treated of the two given they were allotted the same mark for their wins, however I expect both to go on. Both yard's are bang in form. Kalahari Gold 65% of stake 4.3 betfair Roaring Forte 35% of stake 2.96 betfair £50 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Poor last three days. 3.55 York I saved on Envisage when I backed Kateeb at Ponty and he is a horse I think can go on in middle distance handicaps this year. The RP mention that they thought thr 6lb hike was harsh. I don't know where they get that from - even if you ignore Kateeb's win NTO. He has more potential than any of the field and if he can cope with ground this soft (won on G/S on debut) then he should go close. Yard are 5/8 in older horse handicaps so far this season. I backed Ella when she bolted up LTO but she hasn't been seen since. Connections have clearly waited for this ground as she needs it the softer the better. I can see her winning a big handicap off this low 80s mark although jockey booking worries me. I'd rather have Graham Norton on board. Envisage 55% of stake 6.2 betfair Ella 45% of stake 9.4 betfair Envisage/Ella £20 FC Envisage/Ella/Crete £10 FC Comb £16.50 TC Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Back! Great ride from Franny Norton, I've always rated him. ;)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.30 York (Class 3) Victoria Montoya and Dolly Penrose head the market here and I backed them both when they finished 1-2 in a Goodwood maiden handicap. I favoured Dolly Penrose that night, and had more on here at a much bigger price, I was gutted when she was nailed on the line when looking all over the winner inside the last. It's very hard to choose between the two here, Dolly Penrose looked to have the race locked up until she drifted slightly carrying Victoria Montoya with her. There was only shd between them and the 2nd is a lb better off. Both should handle soft ground. Dolly Penrose's best form is probably her debut 4th to Burn The Breeze, 2nd, 3rd, 5th all placed in Group company. That was her only run on easy ground. Dolly Penrose 60% of stake 4.1 betfair Victoria Montoya 40% of stake 2.94 betfair Dolly Penrose/Vicoria Montoya £20 RFC Dolly Penrose/Vicoria Montoya/Le Brocquy

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

4.30 York (Class 3) Victoria Montoya and Dolly Penrose head the market here and I backed them both when they finished 1-2 in a Goodwood maiden handicap. I favoured Dolly Penrose that night, and had more on here at a much bigger price, I was gutted when she was nailed on the line when looking all over the winner inside the last. It's very hard to choose between the two here, Dolly Penrose looked to have the race locked up until she drifted slightly carrying Victoria Montoya with her. There was only shd between them and the 2nd is a lb better off. Both should handle soft ground. Dolly Penrose's best form is probably her debut 4th to Burn The Breeze, 2nd, 3rd, 5th all placed in Group company. That was her only run on easy ground. Dolly Penrose 60% of stake 4.1 betfair Victoria Montoya 40% of stake 2.94 betfair Dolly Penrose/Vicoria Montoya £20 RFC Dolly Penrose/Vicoria Montoya/Le Brocquy

Thought Dolly would reverse the form hence the bigger bet. 1-2-3 to boot! 21/1+ exacta Bad week to a good week in 35 mins. :nana

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.55 Newmarket (Class 3) Again struggling for time. Three horses I've backed already this season are Bassinet, Haarth Soveriegn and Horsford Hill. Although this may be too tough a test, I still believe they all have the potential to win more races this season. Tifernati is my idea of the winner however. Since he has found his trip (12f) he is double figure runner fields: 1/15, 1/16, 1/11. A strong pace brings out the best in him. Although all his winning has come on fast going and most pundits are worried about this ground however I believe easier ground will pose NO problems. In fact I think he will improve for soft going. Tifernati 55% of stake 7 betfair Horseford Hill 30% of stake 12 betfair Basinet 10% of stake 30 betfair Haarth Soveriegn 5% of stake 60 betfair 4 horse combos

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Tifernati now 10 on betfair!

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

4.55 Newmarket (Class 3) Again struggling for time. Three horses I've backed already this season are Bassinet, Haarth Soveriegn and Horsford Hill. Although this may be too tough a test, I still believe they all have the potential to win more races this season. Tifernati is my idea of the winner however. Since he has found his trip (12f) he is double figure runner fields: 1/15, 1/16, 1/11. A strong pace brings out the best in him. Although all his winning has come on fast going and most pundits are worried about this ground however I believe easier ground will pose NO problems. In fact I think he will improve for soft going. Tifernati 55% of stake 7 betfair Horseford Hill 30% of stake 12 betfair Basinet 10% of stake 30 betfair Haarth Soveriegn 5% of stake 60 betfair 4 horse combos

All four in the first 8 home - although the front three pulled clear. Like I said still think there are races to be won with my selections, especially given that they usually run below this grade.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Hit the front on the week (+1.27pts) with 2 winners from four bets so far today. 7.45 Chester (Class 3) The draw is always important over this trip at Chester although with only 8 going to post I'm not ruling anyone out on draw basis alone. Cake was a decent early 2yo and typical of that type she hasn't gone on. Arguably though her best form (3rd to Captain Gerard) came on good/soft and with a recent 5lb ease in the weights she cannot be dismissed. I thought Fol Hollow was going to be interesting this year, gave Look Busy weight and a beating on his final 2yo start. Ran a fine race FTO when attempting to make all at Newmarket but disappointed since, including when playing up at the start LTO. Style should suit this track but best form is on quicker ground. Hamish McGonagall landed a gamble in a warm handicap at York. Didn't stay 6f NTO but run a fine race on g/s behind B.Dona is the Gosforth Park Cup. You'd think he would improve for some give being by Namid so a mark of 91 doesn't put me off. The price does though. The most logical bet but currently odds on on betfair. Little Pete is well handicapped. The race he won off 82 has worked out well he put in a good run behind Bo McGinty over C&D LTO off his new mark of 88. That was against his elders obviously and will find it easier tonight. Ideally the ground would be a touch quicker though. Little Pete 30% of stake EW 5/1 Lads Cake 20% of stake win 13 betfair Cake 20% of stake place 2.76 betfair Little Pete/Cake/Hamish McGonagall £10 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb Hamish/Little £20 SFC Hamish/Cake £20 SFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Bet for the sake in the 7.45. Made mistake there. One wouldn't go in so lost my place bet on Little Pete. :@ A rare EW bet away from betfair too. Typical. 8.40 Chepstow King's Caprice hasn't won for a while but has dropped down the weights as a result. Connections have obviously been waiting for the ground, would a cert if he could find some of his old form tonight. Conquest isn't one to trust but is another who has dropped down the weights. Has plenty of formlines that would make him a clear winner in this but obviosuly keeps a bit to himself thesedays. Acts with give so worth giving a chance to here. Esteem Machine is a progressive horse that I've been following this season. Two good runs from three runs on soft ground on turf. Decent apprentice on board and at least he is going the right way - something that can't be said of a lot of the older horses in the line up. Esteem Machine 40% of stake 13 betfair Kings Caprice 35% of stake 9.6 betfair Conquest 25% of stake 8.6 betfair £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Rubbish. On to tomorrow. :hope

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Well it's been a tough week, lost internet and going changes didn't help obviously. I'm behind on the week going into a Saturday - it's been a while since I've gone into a weekend behind on the week. A outsider failing to load tonight made the difference between winning and losing on this thread so far this week (backed the 3rd EW but race went to 1-2 places only). Anyway onwards and upwards. York 2.10 (Class 3) I struggle at York at the best of times and it isn't going to be any easier tomorrow given the heavy ground. Swop is a horse I've backed twice already this year and I plan to have him on my side all year, unless I see a reason not to. His maiden win last season worked out very well (the 2nd now rated 85), so he looked obviously well treated off a mark of 82 FTO this year. He was beaten at short odds but lost nothing in defeat. The 1st, 3rd, and 4th al won NTO or 2nd TO and the 5th has been narrowly beaten on his next two starts. No surprise the Swop won NTO off a 3lb higher mark despite drifting in the betting prior to the race. He looked beat inside the last but battled on well to come out on top - they pulled clear of the 3rd. He was raised 5lb for that win but I still think there is more to come. I'm certain he can win off 90 and I think there could be a big one in him. Obviously the big concern is the heavy ground. He has yet to run a bad race from his three starts and they come on the A/W at Lingfield and Great Leighs, and on good/firm ground at Doncaster. Will he cope with difference in going? Well he is a half-brother to Love Affair whose only success come of good/soft, his dam's only success from three starts was a 10l victory on fibresand and she is a half-sister to May Ball who was a G1 on 'very soft' in France. That is enough for me, this is only a guide granted, but the guide clearly says soft ground will not be a problem. Perhaps he wants soft? Maybe that is why he drifted on fast ground at Donny? I've backed Vainglory on each of his three starts since coming back from Dubai and he has run solidly getting placed each time. He has been a little unlucky I suppose and deserves to get his head in front. I actually think he needs a set of blinds but his sole turf win was on soft so I'll back him small here, even though I have no knowledge of the jockey. His recent 3rd at Epsom worked out well. Winner won the Bunbury Cup, the 6th was a close 3rd in the Royal Hunt Cup and the 7th won a nice race at Newcastle NTO (re-opposes here). Swop 40% of stake win 8 betfair Swop 40% of stake place price tba Vainglory 10% of stake win 20 betfair Vainglory 10% of stake place price tba

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.15 York John Smiths Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) I've always though of the Magnet Cup as one of my favourite races, but looking back it's been quite a painful race for me. My life-time bets in the race have been: 1995 Yoush 3rd btn 0.5l 3/1f 1998 Pasternak 2nd btn 0.5l 5/1f 1999 Killer Instinct 5th 7/4f 2000 Medicean 14th 5/2f 2002 Leadership 3rd btn nk 9/4f 2004 Promotion 2nd bth hd 7/2f 2007 Greek Well 4th 6/1f A few near misses but a pretty dismal record, it takes some doing to back 7 losing favourites - quite a skill. Looking back though I think I backed the best horse in the race (potentially at least) most times and jsut didn't get the breaks. It doesn't bode well for today's race but lets hope my luck changes. I remember the draw being blamed for Mediceans puzzling display - although it's a 10f race the first bend comes up after just a furlong. Based on the last 10 runnings: 8/10 winners were drawn in single figures 2/10 winners were drawn in double figures 26/40 placed horses were drawn in single figures 14/40 placed horses were drawn in double figures 3/10 winners were drawn low 5/10 winners were drawn middle 2/10 winners were drawn high 20/40 placed horses were drawn low 11/40 placed horses were drawn middle 9/40 placed horses were draw high The recent high drawn winner was Mullins Bay and Fallon got him over from his wide draw fairly early. I don't think it's impossible to win from a high draw obviously, but it would take a fine piece of riding. The % play would be to avoid the high numbers. I've always backed up and coming handicappers in this and the race suits that type. Based on the past 10 runnings: 3/10 winners were 3yos 6/10 winners were 4yos 1/10 winniers were 5yos 9/40 placed horses were 3yos 22/40 placed horses were 4yos 8/40 placed horses were 5yos 1/40 placed horses were 6yos 0/40 placed horses were 7yo+ Firstly I'm eliminating all the 5yos and over apart from the genuine Benandonner (coincidently the same connections of the only winner over 4yo). There are no 3yos in the line up this year so it leaves; Mutajarred Eradicate Escape Route Ezdiyaad Benandonner Monte Alto Proponent Prince Forever Fishforcompliments Extraterrestrial If I back one drawn high it's going to be at a price so out goes Proponent who despite being drawn 19 is only around 9/1. As does Escape Route who is drawn 14, looks weighted to his best and has no form on the ground. Fishforcompliments, although a big price, could struggle to get this trip and is overlooked, as is Monte Alto who although is well handicapped, is too short at 9/1 given the ground is an unknown. The shortlist now looks like this: Mutajarred (drawn 11) Will love the ground (unbeaten on soft/heavy) and this has been his long-term target. His win at Great Leighs LTO has worked out well with the 2nd going close at Ascot before winning a Listed race. Ticks in every box but not many horses win handicaps off 106. Eradicate (drawn 1) Would have a chance on his best form (early last season and early this season) but went off the boil at the same time both years. Last two runs have been poor but a big price if he can find his form but it is a worry that he is best in his first few runs of the season. Ezdiyaad (drawn 3) Richard Hills prefers Mutajarred but Ezidyaad is a horse I like and have backed every time so far this season. Looked very well treated at the start of the season off 82 and now runs off 100 after winning twice. Looks capable at this mark as he travelled well at Ascot before his stamina gave out. Back to 10f here and is another who is unbeaten on easy ground. Benandonner (drawn 13) Up against it with the draw but has run so many gallant races this season. Will like the ground and I think York will suit, if his rider can get him out and accross and get him infront without letting him get too keen early as this trip streches his stamina. Won't be an easy task for his talented apprentice rider but is a huge price, the only reason why I haven't scrubbed him. Prince Forever (drawn 2) Has had his problems but now he has dropped to a mark of 87 he is becoming interesting. Acts with some give (although heavy an unknown) and if he could ever reproduce his 3rd to Tariq last season he would be slung in. Extraterrestrial (drawn 20) Still well handicapped on his Thirsk Hunt Cup run and was unlucky at Chester NTO. Has won on heavy and his style of running suggests he is worth a try at 10f. Has the worst of the draw but again the price compensates that. Ezdiyaad 55% of stake 15/2 power Mutajarred 25% of stake 9/2 power Extraterrestrial 5% of stake 46 betfair Benandonner 5% of stake 38 betfair Prince Forever 5% of stake 22 betfair Eradicate 5% of stake 36 betfair £3.30 F/C Comb (30 bets) 80p T/C Comb (120 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

York 2.10 (Class 3) Swop 40% of stake win 8 betfair Swop 40% of stake place price tba Vainglory 10% of stake win 20 betfair Vainglory 10% of stake place price tba

Swop is a NR. Price on Vainglory lowers to 15 on the win side and 3.2 on the place side.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

3.15 York John Smiths Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) Ezdiyaad 55% of stake 15/2 power Mutajarred 25% of stake 9/2 power Extraterrestrial 5% of stake 46 betfair Benandonner 5% of stake 38 betfair Prince Forever 5% of stake 22 betfair Eradicate 5% of stake 36 betfair

10p R4 with power and usual deductions with betfair so prices now read: Ezdiyaad 6.65/1 power Mutajarred 3.95/1 power Extraterrestial 42 betfair (currently 44) Benandonner 35 betfair (currently 44) Prince Forever 20 betfair Eradicate 33 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.40 York (Class 3) It's possibly that the handicapper has caught up with Baby Strange but under ideal conditions there could be one more race in him. Hurricane Spirit wasn't seen for 9 months after running in last years 1000Gns and shaped as if coming to hand recently. May need another run or two but is slipping down the weights. Pusey Street Lady's soft ground form is far superior to her other form and her 3rd in the Gosforth Park Cup is working out well with the 2nd bolting up last night. Worried that she may have the worst of the draw though. Obe Brave runs off a life-time low mark but although the RP says he acts on soft his record on easy going reads 4790000 - so I'm not sure where they get that idea from, it cannot be from his form. It's been a long time since Zomerlust was allowed to run off a makr as low as 85. He shaped as if coming back to form LTO behind Redford at Newcastle, doing best of those drawn high. He is very well handicapped on his win here last season (6f heavy) and his 2nd on the same ground a month before that at Newcastle - 9lb lower here. For a sprint handicapper he is very consisten on soft ground, has a 50% placed S/R (122302160620210908). 6f on soft ground also brings out the best in Bel Cantor. His record when faced with such conditions reads 1110212656533, 8 places from 13 runs. Well handicapped on his 5th at Doncaster behind Cape and will make a bold attempt to make all up the stands side rail. Zomerlust 60% of stake win 5.2 betfair Bel Cantor 15% of stake win 20 betfair Bel Cantor 15% of stake place 5.6 betfair Pusey Street Lady 10% of stake 9.2 betfair Zomerlust/Bel Cantor/Baby Strange/Pusey Street Lady £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Another unlucky John Smiths Cup - 2nd, 3rd, 4th :wall What a T/C that would've been. 2.10 - main bet NR, saver EW bet just our the frame (-0.2pts) 2.40 - main bet wins at 5.2 (+2.12pts) 3.15 - 2nd, 3rd, and 4th (-1pts)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.00 Ascot Bogside Theatre ran a great race when I backed her in the Notherhumberland Plate and like I said that day she has a big race in her. Closely weighted with Gee Dee Nan who should go well for Shane Kelly. Whenever looks a decent prospect. I nearly backed him FTO this year but was worried about fitness. He should be spot on now and although he has been raised a 1lb for that 2nd he is still well treated on his form last year (beat Bukit Tinggi off levels). Whenever 70% of stake 6.6 betfair Bogside Theatre 20% of stake 10 betfair Gee Dee Nan 10% of stake 11.5 betfair Whenever/Bogside Theatre/Gee Dee Nan/Sanbuch £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Up and down today, which has been the story of the week. 4.35 Ascot (Class 3) I've backed Crimson Fern a few times this season and she hasn't stopped improving. Everytime she is raised she just keeps pulling out more. I backed the Nicholls pair Strike Up The Band and Something recently and the former is definitely well handicapped - I wrote in greater detail as to why further up the thread. He wasn't helped by the draw LTO and used up a lot of energy early. Will surely strike soon. Something travelled really well in the Wokingham but folded tamely. He is probably best watched at the moment but if they can coax him back to his best he is another winner in waiting. Strike Up The Band 55% of stake 4.9 betfair Crimson Fern 30% of stake 3.9 betfair Something 15% of stake 14 betfair £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Strike Up The Band caught late on again. Small profit on the singles and on the casts. 5.10 Ascot (Class 3) I've backed Nutkin on each of her starts this season and she has been very unlucky not to get her head in front. She looked all over the winner FTO (traded out at 1.03) but paid for chasing the early leaders and faded very late on. Wasn't given a bad ride from Oscar Urbina on her 2nd start - she was just given a typical Oscar ride. Which basically means totally incompetent. She would've won many a length. She has gone up the handicap for those unlucky runs but still is still well handicapped off a mark of 76. This is what I wrote about her earlier this season:

The horse in question is the James Fanshawe filly Nutkin. She was deemed good enough to line up in a Newmarket maiden FTO but showed nothings that day - usual for stable debutants. She could be the typical older horse improver for the yard. She left that run behind on her 2nd start though in a Kempton maiden, finishing 4th of 14 at 50/1, running on strong over the mile trip. The winner that day, Amarna, since then showed form lines of 1121 winning off 90 on his final start. The 2nd (Double Doors) showed 3113 after ending the season on 83. The 3rd (Andmoreagain) won her only start after. The 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th all won at least one race after. These finished the season on marks of 73, 68, 80, 82, 66+, 72, 80 respectively. On this form alone she is a blot on the handicap of 69, remember this was an inadequate trip too. There is bundles of stamina on each side of the family. However there is more, she was upped in trip to 1m2f on her next start on heavy ground - she bolted up beating Maslak (now rated 84), and they were clear on the 3rd. It was no surprise that she went off a short favourite for her final start and handicap debut. She 'flopped' and finished 4th, although she travelled really well. She either didn't have enough experience or she may not be totally straightforward. After all she had to be mounted outside the paddock for that Kempton run. If she is straightforward, which is likely (I'm forgiving her the last run, she has apparently come on this season) then is she as good as you can get to a cert off this mark. It may not be today due to fitness etc but it will be soon. She is high on my horses to follow this season.

She has her ground again today and if she copes with the drop back to a mile then she has to go close. Obviously Fanshawe/Spencer worries me, like many punters I struggle to back winners when these two team up. I'll give them and Nutkin one more chance here. Nutkin 50% of stake EW 7/2 coral

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Couldn't you have picked another day to give it one more chance?:tongue2 :clap :clap I had Badalona as my BBOTD :eyes

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) :lol;) Sorry Cass. She owed me that after three chunky losing bets on her. Going by the above (her form last year) I really don't know how she got away with a mark in the 60s at the end of the year.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 8.10 GL (Class 3) High Standing was well fancied for his intended seasonal debut but he was withdrawn. He was again well fancied when he finally made that seasonal debut and he won very easily indeed. Beaten NTO under Urbina (shock). Jamie back on board now but higher mark and new trip to contend with. 2/3 on A/W. Captain Jacksparra's A/W form reads 2112. He has run ran decent races on turf late and he is weighted ok. Should figure if the surface brings out any improvement. Trip is the main worry. Binanti is another that acts well on dirt (better than 50% placed S/R) and he has dropped to a fair mark. Captain Jacksparra 25% of stake EW 10 & 2.72 Binanti 25% of stake EW 11 & 2.92 £16.50 FC/TC Combos with High Standing

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 8.10 Doncaster (Class 3) Hard to know what Persian Sea achieved LTO as she was a warm order. But her two previous runs suggest she has been given a chance by the handicapper with a mark of 84. 3rd to Scuffle on her debut who won LTO off 92. That worked out well as did her run NTO. Cha Cha Cha is solid at this level and although the handicapper may have her, a fillies race is easier than the races she has been contesting. Persian Sea 80% of stake 2.34 betfair Cha Cha Cha 20% of stake 13.5 betfair £50 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 8.00 Hamilton (Class 2) A cracking sprint handicap with no less than 9 of the 16 runners - already carrying my money this season. That means I though at least 9 of these were/are handicapped to win. Pace-check first of all.

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The best early toe will be from Valery Borzov in stall 3. There are plenty of prominent horses accross the couse though. Knot In Wood won this last year by 3l and is only 3lb higher here. Been running well of late in big handicaps so sure to be fancied here. Will appreciate the expected rain. A chance, but an obvious one and therefore priced accordingly. I've backed Valery Borzov on his last three starts. He ran off 82 for the first of those and I was sure he would make a mockery of that mark this season. He bolted up and was raised 10lb. Proved that mark was not beyond him when he was caught late on heavy ground. The ground suited the winner Rising Shadow much more and he can be viewed as an unlucky loser (going changed during the card). Raised another 2lb for that effort and again showed there is more to come LTO at Newcastle. He looked the winner 2 out (2/5 in running) but paid the price for being allowed to go off too fast to soft ground. If the ground doesn't get too soft then he must have a fine chance of leading all the way here. He does act on soft but it enhances the chances of his rivals and doesn't help his trailblazing style. I backed Everymanforhimself LTO and wrote this prior to that run:

Everymanforhimself ran a fine race LTO (off 90 - same mark here) in the race mentioned above and that was his 3rd decent run from three races this season. FTO he was 3rd to Ajigilo at Newmarket off 87 and then finished 2nd to Masta Plasta, again off 87, in a very warm race at York which is working out well - winner, 4th, 7th, 10th, 12th, and 13th all running well or winning NTO. He is well handicapped at 90 at the moment, won off 92 and placed off 96 at two and looks like he has a nice race in him. This stiff 5f will be ideal, won twice from two starts over C&D at two.

He got up late to nab Strike Up The Band (ran well since) and a 2lb hike is fair. He is still well handicapped. I think he'll see out the stiff 6 here and he will get a nice lead from a Nicholls horse. The amount of rain they get could be key. Zomerlust was well handicapped Saturday and wouldn't be out of it under a penalty. He is one that needs the rain to come however. Draw a worry too. Think I'm the only punter not to have backed Pawan ever. And I doubt I ever will. The tactic has served me well over the years, he has been beaten 106 times. Maze is an interesting runner. He won at Royal Ascot last year and started off this year well enough when 5th in the Free Handicap. Disappointed on his next two starts but put in a much better effort LTO behind Redford. Inconsistent but ground may be the reason behind that. From ten starts he has run above form five times (Gd, Gd, GS, Gd, Sft) and run below form five times (GF, GF, Gd, Fm, Gd). He obviously doesn't want it too quick. Fairly handicapped now (93) although I'm not sure he is a sprinter. Trainer seemed to think he'd get at least a mile providing he'd settle and was a Derby entry. Tawzeea's only bad run come at 7f and it's becoming clear that he is a sprinter. Won well LTO but raised 9lb for it. Trainer expected good things for him this year and I do think there are more races to be won with him. My bets will revolve around some of the above but with the uncertainty with the weather up there I'm waiting before I make any final decisions.