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The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)


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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.15 Doncaster (Class 2) I've played on Players Please once or twice this year at big prices. Until LTO he had run some promising races and looked to be comnig to hand. He could spring up at a price soon. Walking Talking has always had a problem or two, clearly well handicapped on what he has done but his well being can only be taken on trust. Meshtri ran a shocker at Kempton LTO but had previously looked progressive on turf. Will forgive the flop qon dirt and give him another chance here. Milne Graden has been a disappointment for me this season. He was high on my horses to follow list this year. Cheekpieces on first time here and ground should suit so he gets a final chance. I backed Moonquake in the King George V at Royal Ascot and he ran a cracker, could've been closer with a more positive ride too. The race has worked out well Savarin, Drill Sergeant, Indian Days and The Betchworth Kid all franking the form since. Just 2lb higher, form on easy and should win more races. Players Please 10% of stake 18 betfair Meshtri 40% of stake 5.6 betfair Milne Graden 10% of stake 11 betfair Moonquake 40% of stake 7.8 betfair £5 F/C Comb (inc Walking Talking) 20 bets £1.65 T/C Comb (inc Walking Talking) 60 bets

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 5.25 Doncaster (Class 2) This looks a weak Class 2. I backed Gold Sovereign on his seasonal debut when making light of his 90 mark. Was a NR on soft ground on his next intended start. Travelled well LTO in the Sheagar Cup (g/s) but not give a great ride by Hughes. Runs off the same mark here, 99, and I think he can find another handicap this year. Obviously ground a worry, I would be having a decent bet on better ground, if he handles it then he could go well. Small stakes due to the uncertainty. Gold Sovereign 50% of stake EW 9 & 3.05 betfair (could get bigger on place side)

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.30 Great Leighs (Class 2) Benhego sluiced up here LTO nad his previous handicap 2nd has worked out well. 13lb hike to deal with but likely to win off new mark - the step up in class may stop him, if it does he'll in off the new mark in a lower grade I would imagine. Victoria Montoya disappointed LTO (think there was a going change to soft?) but previously was consistent. She ran well on the A/W on her first two starts and is worth another try on it. Sweet Lightning has looked the winner at one stage on his previous two starts and could be ready for a step up in trip. Savenna is a tricky ride but capable off this mark if taking to the surface - yard had easy winner here the other night. Le Brocquy is an unknown and wasn't disgraced LTO when splitting a well handicapped pair. Benhego 45% of stake 4.6 betfair Victoria Montoya 15% of stake 23 betfair Sweet Lightning 15% of stake 11 betfair Savenna 15% of strake 15 betfair Le Brocquy 10% of stake 14 betfair £5 F/C Comb £1.65 T/C Comb 4.35 Great Leighs (Class 2) Always Bold came back to form LTO when returned to the A/W. Travelled well and could've been closer with a more positivive ride. 1lb lower here and never out the frame on dirt. Should run another solid race. Always Bold 50% of stake E/W 8/1 gen 5.40 Great Leighs (Class 2) Tanto Faz put in a fine effort on handicap debut in a tough Sandown handicap despite pulling very hard early on. Think a mark of 85 is well within his capabilities. First time on the dirt but I trust his trainer's judgement - if he acts on it he will must go well. Tanto Faz 50% of stake EW 4.3 & 1.7

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.00 I made Persian Sea a decent bet on her handicap debut back in July, writing this about her:

Hard to know what Persian Sea achieved LTO as she was a warm order. But her two previous runs suggest she has been given a chance by the handicapper with a mark of 82. 3rd to Scuffle on her debut who won LTO off 92. That worked out well as did her run NTO.
(since then her maiden win has worked out too with the 6l runner-up Rhadegunda winning twice) She won pretty well this night off a mark that mark of 82 but wasn't seen for a while after that. I didn't select her when she re-appeared thankfully, she was a big drifter and was very disappointing. She is definitely worth another chance off a mark of just 85 in what seems a poor race for the grade. She showed plenty of toe over 7f at Donny in July and I can't see a stiff 6f being a problem. The market has been key to her in most of her starts so perhaps a glance at the betting can help to gauge stakes. Persian Sea 100% of stake 5.2 betfair
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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.40 Ayr Silver Cup (Class 2) Pace-check:

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Not easy to decipher this. There is hardly any pace high but there isn't much pace accross the field to be fair with just the one real trailblazer in the field (Bel Cantor). There is definitely more early(ish) speed low but the jockey's decision on the horses drawn 12 and 13 could play a part, they are obviously nearer the far rail but with little early pace to their right they could easily grab the stands side rail. I think if they were drawn just a box or three higher they would tack over. Looking historically at the draw, the last ten winners have been drawn M,H,L,H,L,H,M,H,M,L - more importantly perhaps is where these winners travelled; 5 come up the stands side, 3 stayed far side with two coming down the middle (the whole field stayed midded on those occasions). On the two recent runnings on soft, high/stands horses are more prominent. Last year the first 7 home were drawn mid/high and come stands side, and in 2004 the first 5 home were drawn mid/high and come stands side. So historically you have to say middle or high, especially on soft ground. But with regards to pace you'd have to favour low. I'm worried that the highly draw hold-up horses could be 15l off the pace at halfway - the thing is, how many horses will be with that pace? Marvellous Value (drawn 4) has impressed me this season and can win more races. At best with a bit of juice in the ground but heavy an unknown. Has a touch of class and he should go well if handling the going. The same can be said of Thebes (12) who I've been following all season. Decent run in Ireland LTO proves he is still on the upgrade but ground issues here. I wrote about Northern Dare (9) on more than one occasion on this thread. 132 record here and and 13 on heavy. Well handicapped on plenty of form (see previous posts for explanation). Burning Insence (21) is now 9lb lower than when going close in handicaps last season. Becoming well handicapped and acts on heavy. He's A Humbug (22) loves it soft, ran well last week and although off a 2lb higher mark here and may be handicapped up to his best, he could give an good account of himself. I said last week that Gift Horse (14) would pop up soon and he ran a fine race LTO to chase home Main Aim. Really well handicapped, acts on soft but maybe not heavy. Not sure his jockey is value for his 7lb. Mullein (24) was 4th on her handicap debut in a race that worked out well. She looked a certain future winner but it wasn't until LTO that she got her head in front again when winning with plenty in hand off a mark of 77 (2nd and 3rd won NTO). A mark of 84 is well within her capabilities and will go well if handling the going. Cha Cha Cha (8) has shown plenty of toe in some of her races and this trip could revive her. 2lb lower than when getting Persian Sea off the bridle (before finishing 3rd). Glasshoughton (19) is running off a lower mark than he did when going close once or twice earlier in the season and acts on heavy. Marvellous Value 10% of stake 40 betfair Thebes 15% of stake 19 betfair Northern Dare 15% of stake 28/1 bet365 Burning Insence 20% of stake 14 betfair He's A Humbug 5% of stake 29 betfair Gift Horse 10% of stake 11 betfair Mullein 20% of stake 9.6 betfair Cha Cha Cha 2.5% of stake 42 betfair Glasshoughton 2.5% of stake 80 betfair plus combos A ridiculously difficult race and I'm in no way staking big for this. I don't think I've ever backed this many in a race before, it's more a bit of fun really as it's the Ayr Silver Cup - to see if I can sneak a big value winner.

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Ayr 2.50 I've had my eye on Underworld all season and it's not surprise to me that he'd recorded four good runs from five career starts. Underworld got back on track some early seaon breaks with a game win at Newbury last month. He was raised 4lb to 99 for that win but I'm certain he will have no problem finding a race off his new mark. His run LTO suggests so too, fiction the fiction in the RP analysis, he was a most unlucky loser, not only did Chester no suit - he was denied a clear run at a pivotal point. A winner without a penalty. There is one massive problem though - the ground. The ability to handle the heavy conditions is a complete unknown. He must go well if he does, that's a big if though and it's a small bet due to that. If he doesn't, I'll get it back on him very soon. Underworld 50% of state E/W 7 & 2.4 Ayr Gold Cup 3.30 I hinted that high numbers may not have the advantage everyone thought they did in the Silver Cup due to the pace - although I didn't really have the bottle to stress the point. It proved that it was all about the pace so obviously we need to do one for the this. Pace-check:

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Although the quickest early pacers are low there does seem to be good pace across the field. So highs should fair better than they did in the Silver Cup. Although I would bet low if I had to pick. Not sure if I'm playing here yet.

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 5.15 Ayr Granted Torphichen is hard to assess but he has to be chanced off a mark of 80 given the way he ploughed through the ground LTO. I'm struggling to prove either way if he is well handicapped on maiden form but my gut instinct is that he may've got in light. Especially considering he should improve for the step up in trip. Torphichen 100% of stake 3 betfair

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Newbury 3.10 Tazeez isn't weighted to reverse form with Ask The Butler but likely to improve on LTO's running as Jimmy Fortune replaces the totally incompetent Martin Dwyer. I cannot stress how bad the latter names jockey is. He is only dual classic winning jockey due to beating the two most unluckiest horses in classics in recent years. (10 pts for anyone who can name them). Presvis is a horse I've had my eye on for some time. Made a mockery of his 72 rating on handicap debut - winning by 9l but was unlucky on his last two starts. Lost his race at the start when 2nd off 78 before suffering terrible luck in running LTO again finishing 2nd (off 87). Up 5lb here but a horse still ahead of the handicapper it seems. I've backed Rose Street on both her starts this season. She ran into the decent Premio Loco FTO before winning easily enough LTO. I've spoke about her ability before on this thread and she looks fairly treated under a 5lb penalty. Samson Son has shown he can win a race this year. Presvis 40% of stake 10 betfair Rose Street 40% of stake 6.8 betfair Tazeez 15% of stake 17.5 betfair Samson Son 5% of stake 70 betfair £10 F/C Comb the top three £10 T/C Comb the top three £3.35 F/C Comb all four £1.65 T/C Comb all four More to come if I get time

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.15 Newmarket No time for write-ups sorry, think all are off winnable marks. Rio Guru 35% of stake 17.5 betfiair Montbretia 30% of stake 5.8 betfair Ornella 35% of stake 18 betfair Plus combos 3.50 Newmarket Grane Annee 70% of stake 3.3 betfair Soft Shoe Shuffle 20% of stake 6.2 betfair Electrolyser 10% of stake 12.5 betfair Plus combos 5.00 Newmarket Axiom 60% of stake 6.8 betfair Vainglory 10% of stake 13.5 betfair Light From Mars 10% of stake 12 betfair Oat Cuisine 20% of stake 11 betfair Plus FC combo and TC combo with The Which Docter

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

5.15 Ayr Torphichen 100% of stake 3 betfair
2nd - beaten in photo.
Newbury 3.10 Presvis 40% of stake 10 betfair Rose Street 40% of stake 6.8 betfair Tazeez 15% of stake 17.5 betfair Samson Son 5% of stake 70 betfair £10 F/C Comb the top three £10 T/C Comb the top three £3.35 F/C Comb all four £1.65 T/C Comb all four
1-2-5 here, Presvis bolts up by 7l. £51 Exacta. :nana
3.15 Newmarket Rio Guru 35% of stake 17.5 betfiair Montbretia 30% of stake 5.8 betfair Ornella 35% of stake 18 betfair
Montbretia looked the winner but ran into one - 2nd.
3.50 Newmarket Grane Annee 70% of stake 3.3 betfair Soft Shoe Shuffle 20% of stake 6.2 betfair Electrolyser 10% of stake 12.5 betfair
2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
5.00 Newmarket Axiom 60% of stake 6.8 betfair Vainglory 10% of stake 13.5 betfair Light From Mars 10% of stake 12 betfair Oat Cuisine 20% of stake 11 betfair
Oat Cuisine wins. :nana Three 2nd's so just a small profit on the day on the thread but did well financially. Biggest bet was the 3.20 for me and only had a small bet on Underworld (voiced concerns about going above).
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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Thanks Ginge. I was at Millwall though so there was no trading in-running for me on Saturday. Now I've seen the races I think I would've been able to get out on Montbretia, Torpichen and Soft Shoe Suffle. I only save at very short in-running so maybe they would've have traded short enough for me. :ok

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.10 I was really sweet on Pescription LTO writing this about her beforehand: Quote:

I believe Prescription is very well handicapped. Was favourite FTO (unusual for a Prescott horse so must've been working well) but was only 8th after running ridiculously green in the maiden won by Siren Party. Stepped up on the effort drastically NTO only 5 days after her debut. She won well by 2l from War and Peace. The runner up was a close 2nd NTO off a mark of 72 and I think the handicapper has been very lenient giving Prescription a mark of just 73 - especially considering connections always leave a bit in hand. Both runs come on easy going and she is by Pivotal so I'm hoping she doesn't need give and will act on the surface. I'm worried less as Prescott's normally carry their form over to the dirt, and vice-versa.
She won a like a well handicapped and decent horse at Lingfield and I'm sure there is more to come. Runs off the same mark here so yard have a massive chance of improving their already impressive 3yo record here. Being entered and backed on debut on soft ground, winning on g/s and being by Pivotal I'm not worried about the ground. I don't like short priced horses like this though so won't be going mad - I'll have less on that I did last week if I'm honest. Been a fair amount laid at 5/6 or thereabouts on betfair, that was generous. Pescription 100% of stake 1.7 betfair
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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 5.30 Although Boz travelled well LTO he didn't finish the race like a happy horse and I'm not convinced he is the same animal he was in previous months. Blinkers off, visor back on suggests the yard are also scratching their heads too. Is such a big price though and so consistent on the dirt so I have to include him here. I gave Walking Talking a mention LTO as he looks well handicapped on his maiden form. He ran well to be 3rd, I'm not as certain as others about how he'll come on for the race as he runs well fresh and Cecil would've had him fit LTO despite a lay-off. Remains interesting and should go close if he don't bounce. Walking Talking 50% of stake 4.9 betfair Boz 25% of stake E/W 20 & 6.2 betfair £16.50 F/C and T/C Combo with Royal Jet

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2.45 Ascot (Class 2) Laddies Poker Two is high on my horses to follow the the rest of the season. She was easy to back on her debut drifting from 6/4 to 11/4, was slowly away but still won by 6l with any amount in hand. The 2nd that day, Ocean Legend, has run some crackers off mid 70 marks all summer. The 3rd won off a mark of 73. The 4th and 5th beaten 10.5l and 15l respectively have both won handicaps off modest marks. The maiden obviously worked out better than it looked at the time (with regards to those in behind I mean). Laddies Poker Two was given a mark of 91 and I thought she was interesting off the mark due to the huge potential shown on debut and I backed her on that handicap debut last month. It was her first start for 7 months and once again she was uneasy in the market - drifting from 7/2 to 11/2. She travelled supremely well throughout, but she wasn't really asked early enough for me and found little when eventually asked. To me, it was a sure sign of blowing up due to the absence. She looked a certain future winner. Another 42 days off the track since, but that is nothing compaired to the seven months of last time and she will surely strip fitter here. I think she'll get away with the drop to 6f and she has a high cruising speed. She has shown enough to suggest she is more than capable of being much better than her rating currently suggests. Laddies Poker Two 100% of stake 5.3 betfair

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Nice winner earlier - been waiting 42 days for her to run! Was over the moon I beat the odds, she was 11/4 when I woke up this afternoon. SP of 9/2 though! Bah. Better do a summary before the weekend as there will be a few bets. Upper Class Singles Bets: 202 Winning Bets: 92 S/R: 46% Staked: 201.85 Returns: 214.08pts P/L: +12.23 Yield: 6% Upper Class F/C Bets : 166 Winning Bets : 34 S/R : 21% Staked : £16,500 Returns : £15,986 P/L : -£514 (202 bets at level stakes remember ;))

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Cheers BH.:ok Ascot 3.40 One of the trappiest handicaps of the season and the 13.5 the field on betfair is fully justified. Underworld hated the ground last week but was previously unlucky off this mark at Chester. 3/4 at this trip and the mark is no problem - if last week didn't take too much out of him then he must go well and is massively overpriced. Extraterrestial showed he is on the way back to form LTO and despite running over further of late this trip poses no problems. Big Noise has been raised 3lb for recent efforts but he is a horse I've always like and I expected big things from him this season. The mark of 90 is well within his capabilites. He keeps runnnig into well handicapped types, Royal Rock and Premio Loco last season and Kalahari Gold and Riggins this term. Has a big race in him I'm sure. Skhilling Spirit is obviously over priced. Frustrating but should go well in getting away on terms. Run to best form on each his runs here. Big Noise 40% of stake 20/1 Hills Underworld 30% of stake 36 betfair Extraterrestial 25% of stake 29 betfair Skhilling Spirit 5% of stake 38 betfair £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 5.25 Ascot I'm certain there are more races in Victoria Montoya, just 4lb higher than her last win - beating Detonator. Ascalon bolted up LTO but has to defy a 13lb hike here. Always showed potential so could go well despite. Thought Whenever was in for a good year but has been disappointing so far. Well handicapped if he can show last season's form. Four Miracles won with a bit in hand LTO and is fairly treated off a 4lb higher mark. Minkowski was placed in last year's Ebor and that was a vintage year - showed nothing over hurdles but could be coming to hand again. Victoria Montoya 45% of stake 5.9 betfair Whenever 20% of stake 10 betfair Ascalon 20% of stake 11.5 betfair Four Miracles 15% of stake 8.8 betfair £5 F/C Combo top three £3.5 F/C Comb all four inc Minkowski £1.65 T/C Comb all four inc Minkowski

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.50 Chester I've followed Deep Winter all season and although the handicapper may've caught up with her this time I'll have her on my side till it's proved he has. Nightjar is back up the wieghts - 4lb hike for 2nd LTO, but the winner did win again. Surprised he hasn't found a handicap yet and should find one soon. I thouht a mark of 90 was well within Decameron's capabilities but so far things haven't gone his way. Paid the price for chasing the frantic early pace LTO and I've a feeling Chester will suit. Decameron 40% of stake 6.2 betfair Nightjar 40% of stake 6.8 betfair Deep Winter 20% of stake 10 betfair £16.50 FC Comb £16.50 TC Comb

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Sorry no time for any more write-ups. 2.25 Haydock Meshtri was very unlucky LTO, a certain future winner off this mark but ground and trip are slight concerns. Always Bold 20% of stake 9.2 betfair Meshtri 50% of stake 4.5 betfair Ozone Trustee 10% of stake 15 betfair Budhist Monk 20% of stake 10 betfair Plus combos 3.00 Haydock Followed this horse all year and was at home over the trip earlier in the season. He could be fresh after a mid-season break. Musaalem 50% of stake E/W 4/1 gen

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Two from five yesterday - finished around level on the thread. A 1-2 but a slight loss on the four F/C's. 5.00 Ascot Gold Soveriegn has been running well off this mark and knocking on the door. Should appreciate this going more. Gold Sovereign 100% of stake 3/1 lads

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  • 2 months later...

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Upper Class Singles Bets: 208 Winning Bets: 94 S/R: 45% Staked: 207.85 Returns: 218.63pts P/L: +10.78 Yield: 5% Upper Class F/C Bets : 170 Winning Bets : 35 S/R : 21% Staked : £16,900 Returns : £16,166 P/L : -£734 Finally had a chance to conclude this thread. Well a slight profit on the year but it doesn't really tell the whole story. I missed a few Saturdays in the summer and they were some of my best results (honest guv!). Also I had to stop in September, due to personal stuff work took a back seat for a week or two and I didn't really get time to post anymore on this thread. Again the thread missed a 50/1 winner (Tropical Strait). All in all though, considering I posted most Class 2/3 handicaps throughout the year (when online) and the volume that brings, and to level stakes, any profit is good I suppose. Over 200 bets at level stakes isn't easy. Hope it was good reading at times at least. During the times I was posting there were hardly any personal bets "off thread". Personally, despite a slow start this flat season has been my most succesful since gambling full time - by some way. I really think putting poker on the back burner for the summer months was key. Loss on the F/C's for the thread, but again to only lose a tiny % on casts on 170 competitive handicaps isn't too bad either. Again, personally I was infront over the season on F/C's - I had a great start before I started the Upper Class thread. Not sure I'm going to continue them next season though as they are time comsuming and the profit doesn't warrant the time it takes to put them on. Great year as an owner too. Five winners to date and a Royal Ascot placer in my favourite race (Royal Hunt Cup) - so you could say it was 6 winners. My "favourite" coming back to form and winning three times was the highlight though. At this stage I won't be able to have a thread next season but may do a retrospective one which'll include thoughts/reviews and may stimulate some opinions from others. :ok

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) I must get my profit / loss totals soughted out too. Look forward to seeing any threads / posts you put up on PL next year Billy. Pleased to here the year gone has been a successful one. To be honest, realise now I have only been playing at the punting for a living thing. May be it is going to be time for a more serious go at it in 09. Think I need to put a minimum (average) of £1500 on a week to make it worth doing as a job. Working on getting 10% profit. Ginge

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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

I must get my profit / loss totals soughted out too. Look forward to seeing any threads / posts you put up on PL next year Billy. Pleased to here the year gone has been a successful one. To be honest, realise now I have only been playing at the punting for a living thing. May be it is going to be time for a more serious go at it in 09. Think I need to put a minimum (average) of £1500 on a week to make it worth doing as a job. Working on getting 10% profit. Ginge
Is 10% enough ginge? thats only £150 a week? Thats about £75k a year to earn £7.5k cash. My stats show i am 26% since Sept 07 on all bets i put on my site. I think you can aim higher :ok
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Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Obvious I know, but discipline is key. It's how you got on at the end of the year on EVERY bet struck that makes a difference between winning and losing money. I could've been a pro at 21, had I the mentality to stick to my "best bets" - but I didn't at that stage in my life. You need to be in a position (at least) to bet every day - it's no good "losing it" during a bad run and putting yourself out the game financially for 3 months. Which I've done in the past, I'm sure we all have! :\ I think Ginge has the right mentality for sure. The judgement goes without saying for most of us on here. :ok

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