Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 10pts WIN Casual Conquest - LOST - (-10pts) 10pts EW Gan Amhras - PLACED - (40pts return, +20pts) 5pts EW Cityscape - LOST - (-10pts) 2.5pts EW Lord Shanakill - LOST - (-5pts) 5pts EW Storyland 9-1 (Lost -10pts) 5pts EW Resplendent Light 18-1 (Lost -10pts) 2pts WIN Casilda 25-1 (Lost -2pts) 5pts EW Shimah 16-1 (Lost -10pts) 2.5pts EW Pursuit of Glory 40-1 (Lost -10pts) 10pts WIN La Raayb (Lost -10pts) New Bank 77pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 177pts Selections 23 Winners/Places 2 Losers 21 Strike Rate 8% Profit/Loss -123pts Absolutely rubbish at the minute, would have had Alexandros placed yesterday in the thread if I had not had connection problems with my damn desktop PC but even that would not cover the losses. :wall Going to take a break and focus on older horses at listed class and above, just can't predict how the younger ones are going to do and if they have trained on. Had a poor week at York and lost loads of cash, need to either start backing some winners or leave it alone for a while, frustrating and expensive at the same time. :cry

[kevshat]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

10pts WIN Casual Conquest - LOST - (-10pts) 10pts EW Gan Amhras - PLACED - (40pts return, +20pts) 5pts EW Cityscape - LOST - (-10pts) 2.5pts EW Lord Shanakill - LOST - (-5pts) 5pts EW Storyland 9-1 (Lost -10pts) 5pts EW Resplendent Light 18-1 (Lost -10pts) 2pts WIN Casilda 25-1 (Lost -2pts) 5pts EW Shimah 16-1 (Lost -10pts) 2.5pts EW Pursuit of Glory 40-1 (Lost -10pts) 10pts WIN La Raayb (Lost -10pts) New Bank 77pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 177pts Selections 23 Winners/Places 2 Losers 21 Strike Rate 8% Profit/Loss -123pts Absolutely rubbish at the minute, would have had Alexandros placed yesterday in the thread if I had not had connection problems with my damn desktop PC but even that would not cover the losses. :wall Going to take a break and focus on older horses at listed class and above, just can't predict how the younger ones are going to do and if they have trained on. Had a poor week at York and lost loads of cash, need to either start backing some winners or leave it alone for a while, frustrating and expensive at the same time. :cry

Chin up mate. We all go through bad runs but you've shown in the past that you read races well and you showed it at York this week too. You had 5/6 winners which you picked out but prices/paddock look took you elsewhere so that shows that you are reading the races well still. And Ask aside, most of the horses were at big prices before we set off. Whenever I've been to race meetings with you, it's always been the bigger priced horses which you nail. In fact I don't remember you backing many favourites unless it's a horse you've followed previously and that's generally the reason why it is favourite that time. As I say, chin up mate, you'll soon start nailing the winners at big prices and making us all some top dollar :ok.

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Agree with Kev:ok. Don't change your methods, it will come good soon and you know that. Keep believing in yourself, the next winner is just around the corner.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Curragh 3.45 I'm not convinced Delegator will go on heavy ground and I'm not convinced Mastercraftsman is top class over 1m and on this ground. There must be value elsewhere and bookies are aware of the progressive Rayeni that is around 4-1. Unbeaten at two and both wins on soft ground, lightly raced, highly progressive and could be one to watch this season. The one i'm interested in at double figures is Recharge, it is also lightly raced, having only had 3 races but one of those was when only a one length 4th to Guineas winner Sea The Stars at this track. It won on its seasonal reappearance on good to firm in a Group 3 race, defeating the Dewhurst winner Intense Focus. This horse looks a decent sort and if the trainer was O Brien it would probably be half those odds. Should go on this ground and looks value against the 2 market leaders. I could see Drumbeat being the best O Brien horse in this race, hopefully not better than this one. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Recharge 11-1 Boylesports 1/4 odds 1st 3

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Newmarket 2.20 I have liked Palavicini for a while and it seems a decent and consistent sort. It ran a fine 2nd here to Delegator as a 2 yr old and the horse in 3rd Four Winds won well last week. It was 4th at Newbury on gd-sft and had that same horse Four Winds in front of it along with Father Time while Your Old Pal was a neck behind. It took on Your Old Pal last time out back at this course and was only beaten a head but now gets a 5lb pull with that horse. Father Time is the main danger but is relying on a decent pace to settle that it might not be guaranteed in a small field like this. It was not beaten far by the potential Group horse Age Of Aquarius and could be better than listed class. I'm going to go for Palavicini as it's one i've followed that seems genuine and capable of a listed win. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN Palavicini 12/5 Sporting Bet

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Cracking winner Phil. Back with a bang:clap

[fintron]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Good work with Palavicini :clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Thanks for the comments. :ok Recharge faded late into 4th, was hoping it would hang on for 3rd but there was no way it was winning when Mastercraftsman kicked for home, made a Group 1 race look like a training exercise and was very classy today. That'll be one to keep an eye on. Palavacini did well, Ahern really throwing everything at the horse to just deny Father Time, kind of wishing i'd also done the forecast. Nice to see it finally get its head in front. 10pts WIN Palvicini - WON - 34pts return +24pts 5pts EW Recharge - UNP - -10pts New Bank 91pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 197pts Selections 25 Winners/Places 3 Losers 22 Strike Rate 12% Profit/Loss -109pts

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Well done Phil, unlucky with the Irish one too!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Curragh 3.05 Tattersalls Gold Cup Moiqen looks outclassed and is easily opposed, form comments generally read one paced, struggling and weakened at the end of its races. Lush Lashes is a very good horse but better form has been on good or firmer ground, one run on heavy saw it finish 7th of 9, I could see them pulling this out of the race as conditions are unlikely to suit. Famous Name has won over 10f at Listed Level and was 2nd in a French Group 1 but generally seems to struggle to get its head in front and has many places at group level that were not wins as the horse simply wasn't good enough on the day. It placed on heavy earlier in May behind Curtain Call but was beaten 3l and that was a Group 3 race. Thewayyouare demands respect just from seeing the words AP O'Brien next to it and he had a very impressive winner in Mastercraftsman at this track under these conditions in the Irish 2000 Guineas. It had 4 wins in a row as a 2 yr old, including a French Group 1 but it was with Andre Fabre back then and was running over 1m. It has had 2 races over a further distance in Group 1 French races and finished 10th and 4th and had no excuses apart from not being good enough. It will have come on for its seasonal reappearance but still might struggle to beat Casual Conquest. Casual Conquests form looks solid, it won over 7f on its 2yr old debut and then won a Grp 2 race over 10f by 6 lengths. It was 3rd in last years Derby at Epsom and winners from that race include New Approach, Tartan Bearer, Dr Fremantle, Curtain Call and Frozen Fire to name a few, all top class Group performers. It then turned out in the Irish Derby and was a 2l second to Frozen Fire with Tartan Bearer, Centennial and Curtain Call all behind. It's seasonal reappearance was a farce with lots of non runners leaving just a 3 horse field and that form is weak, the winner Bronze Cannon had only ever won in handicap company before that race. It travelled well for a long way and looked like it would win but I felt the ground was too firm and it needed some cut to see it at its best. 10f trip should be fine and on this ground they'll probably need to get a bit further and this horse has the proven stamina over 12f but the required pace for 10f too. Ignoring that last run I make this the clear form pick and expect it to have another 1 on its formline after this race. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN Casual Conquest 7-2 Paddy Power

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Casual Conquest did exactly what I hoped for and made the running as I was concerned about a slow pace. The O Brien horse drifted worryingly before the race. The selection won by about 6 lengths and I thought it handled the ground no problem, will be looking out for Lush Lashes on better ground. Nice to have a winner and one I've followed since its last run, felt conditions and pace didn't suit last time but all fell right today. 10pts WIN Casual Conquest 7-2 - WON - 45pts return +35pts New Bank 126pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 207pts Selections 26 Winners/Places 4 Losers 22 Strike Rate 15% Profit/Loss -74pts

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Goodwood 3.10 - Festival Stakes Gd-Fm, 1m 1f 192yds, Listed Race I have narrowed the field down by opposing horses that I don't feel will go on the track, the ground, or have the class to win this race. I am left with 3 and one of them could be anything and is thrown in on maiden form. That one is Made To Ransom, won a maiden really well over 10f on good to firm but may not have beaten anything and unproven upped in class. Unexposed and the potential is there but at 9-2 you're going on potential rather than proof. Tranquil Tiger has run over further but dropped back to 10f and won a listed race at this track (dead heat) after leading. I think it might be better over further now and it has only faded right at the end of 12f races. It definitely goes on the ground and has the course and distance form. The one I like at a bigger price is Yahrab from the Godolphin stable, who seemed to have a turnabout of fortunes during the Dante meeting, seeing a few winners go in for them. It is 3 from 3 over 10f (0-1 over 1m2f 75yds) and they were wins at class 3, class 2 and listed level but all on the all weather. It quickened away for these wins and often goes from the front which often suits horses here. It has been on the go since February and has been running at Nad Al Sheba. Form here includes a 3 1/4 length second to the impressive group horse Presvis and it pulled clear of the next horse that was 5 1/2 length back in 3rd. It has a 1st, 2nd and 3rd on good to firm so conditions should be ok. It is likely to go off in front or just behind the leader. That may cause problems if taking on Tranquil Tiger but could be beneficial if it sits just behind it and takes a lead from it instead. It ran poorly at Chester over 10f on good to firm ground but has had an 18 day rest and Dettori gets on board to take over from Ahmed Ajtebi. Currently around 12-1 but Perks may not run, I'll post up suggested bet in the morning but looking like an ew bet on this one at the moment.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) From the odds available I think Yahrab is a great ew bet. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Yahrab 16-1 Stan James 1/5 odds 1st 3

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Fiulin 7.10 Sandown I think Patkai is a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner and is clearly a decent sort but the value for me in the race is Fiulin. It is going the right way and improving with every run, it's a listed winner when it won over 14f on Good to Firm ground. I saw it run at York and for me it never went on the ground that ended up very soft on the Friday due to loads of rain overnight, Back on a firmer surface I expect to see a different Fiulin tonight. Available at 12-1 so well worth ew or place only if you don't like ew betting. It has also been 2nd in another listed race and 3rd in a Grp 3. Backed it twice at Doncaster previously and highlighted as one to follow from back then. Geordieland often travels well but finds little and looks one paced and Tastahil was a good handicapper before finally winning a listed race. I think Fiulin has the potential to be better than these 2 and can get close to Patkai, can't touch that one due to the price. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Fiulin 12-1 Skybet 1/4 odds First 2

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

Fiulin 7.10 Sandown I think Patkai is a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner and is clearly a decent sort but the value for me in the race is Fiulin. It is going the right way and improving with every run, it's a listed winner when it won over 14f on Good to Firm ground. I saw it run at York and for me it never went on the ground that ended up very soft on the Friday due to loads of rain overnight, Back on a firmer surface I expect to see a different Fiulin tonight. Available at 12-1 so well worth ew or place only if you don't like ew betting. It has also been 2nd in another listed race and 3rd in a Grp 3. Backed it twice at Doncaster previously and highlighted as one to follow from back then. Geordieland often travels well but finds little and looks one paced and Tastahil was a good handicapper before finally winning a listed race. I think Fiulin has the potential to be better than these 2 and can get close to Patkai, can't touch that one due to the price. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Fiulin 12-1 Skybet 1/4 odds First 2

Good luck sir:ok. As I recall, that was Kevshat's nap at York.;)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

Good luck sir:ok. As I recall' date=' that was Kevshat's nap at York.;)[/quote'] I tried to tell him it wouldn't win at York. ;) Has more chance today with no Ask in the race. Concert called off Saturday so considering going back to York or over to Donny, whoever did fixtures wants shooting.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Yahrab and Fiulin both lost, will include those when I update totals on Sunday, won't be around Saturday. Friday 5th June Epsom 2.45 There are 3 I fancy in the race but will only be backing 2 of them. Ask is a horse I've followed with the expectation that it would be a Group 1 horse and it may finally get off the mark today after several failed attempts. It put in a decent performance at York in a Gp 2 race but importantly for me Ryan Moore did not leave its challenge too late and it had plenty left in the tank once he had sent it to the front. I am hoping he rides it quite prominently behind the leaders and I think it will be fine on good ground. Frozen Fire has some good form on offer but disappointed at this course when held up by Mick Kinane. It's another I want to see ridden more prominently and Murtagh is on board today. It won the Irish Derby in good style and Casual Conquest won recently to bolster form but did not get the trip in the St Leger. The race last time out was a farce and can be completely ignored. I mentioned to Fintron and Wizzkid Walter at York that you have to take note of O Briens runners at big odds (and then did not back Black Bear Island :wall) and 9-1 for this is an insult to me. It does not seem the most reliable but for me trip and ground will be fine and the trainer has to be respected. The horse looked to have come on ok but was caught out last time by a crawl and a sprint with the finishing time 54 secs slower than standard. I really like Youmzain and it has finished 2nd at this course to Soldier of Fortune as well as 2nd in 2 Arc De Triomphes. It is definitely a top class group horse but I am concerned about waiting tactics for this race and would rather take the 2 other horses against it for what I consider more value. Suggested Bets: 12pts WIN - Ask 11-2 BlueSquare 8pts WIN - Frozen Fire 9-1 BlueSquare

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Epsom Oaks 4.05 High Heeled - Took 3 attempts to win as a maiden, well beaten in Gp3 at York, probably didn't go on gd-fm but lacks form to win this. Midday - Impressive last time out at listed level and 2nd previously at this track, trainer has good record with fillies and in this race, one for the shortlist. Oh Goodness Me - Gp 3 winner in Ireland but ran mostly on softer ground, ran once on good and finished 9th, may sneak a place. Perfect Truth - Represents the O'Brien/Murtagh partnership at a big price, won last time out when making all but looks outclassed here. Phillipina - Beat the O Brien horse last time out but had looked disappointing previously. Price is based on potential and may surprise a few. Rainbow View - The one to beat for me, did not like the very firm ground, forgive it one bad run and this looks too good to ingore. Sariska - Won the Musidora in good style but did not beat much and feel it is priced up on that one run. The Miniver Rose - Has only won a maiden and well beaten in the other races, hard to fancy this today. Tottie - Won a maiden race at 3rd attempt but well beaten in listed contests since and hard to see it having improvement to win at this level. Wadaat - Won a Yarmouth maiden and 2nd in an Italian Gp 2 but well beaten in a listed race behind Midday and could surprise if ridden prominently. Rainbow View looked like a fantastic and progressive horse as a 2 yr old and went from maiden to grp3, grp2 and eventually Gp1 winner, beating Fantasia convincingly by 2 1/2 lengths. John Gosden did not seem too concerned after the Guineas flop when well supported and sent off at odds on and felt the ground was too firm, it was clear that it was never travelling and was under pressure early and the jockey comments support that too. To managed 5th place, only beaten 3l was a good effort as far as I'm concerned and back on good ground we'll see the real Rainbow View. It has been written off due to one run whereas I feel Sariska has been made favourite on the back of one run. The Musidora wasn't the strongest race, Star Ruby was 2nd and had previously only won a maiden race while Enticement and High Heeled didn't go on the good to firm ground leaving Sariska to win convincingly. Clearly a danger but priced up on that 1 race for me. I'm not totally convinced that Midday will be good enough, the best form it has is only at listed level although it definitely has potential to be a group horse but I will favour the proven form of Rainbow View. Suggested Bet: 20pts Rainbow View 7-2 BlueSquare

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Goodwood 7.20 Crime Scene - Good horse but seems to prefer good or softer, has 2 wins on gd-fm but this was in 2006, last 2 runs on this surface saw it 11/12 and 12/12 including when last at this track over this distance and opposed for that reason at a short price. Halicarnassus - Goes on the ground and good effort over shorter trip last time out at this course, has form over 1f shorter than this, may be worth backing at a decent price if it gets the extra furlong but possibly lacks class. Illustrious Blue -5 wins at this course but has not won over much further than 1m1f/1m2f despite several efforts. 0 from 5 on gd-fm and only 1 win from 14 attempts at class 1 level, opposed. Mad Rush - Has some decent efforts over this trip and placed efforts on gd-fm. Only has handicap wins in this country but placed in a Gp 2 abroad and 4th in a Gp 1 overseas. May need the run and a further trip, short priced. Sagara - struggles to get its head in front but has some top class placed form that includes 3rd in the Arc won by Dylan Thomas. Tried over longer trips for its last 4 runs but could still have too much class for these dropped back in trip. Unleashed - Looked poor on last 3 runs but they were all on soft ground. Unproven on gd-fm but if it takes to the surface could be a real danger. Has won over the trip at Kempton and has a Gp 1 entry later in the year. Ted Durcan described it as "a bloody good horse when he's right" and I think it has been underestimated at a massive price but could be wrong. Suggested Bets: 5pts Win Sagara 8-1 (Ladbrokes) 3pts Win Halicarnassus 12-1 (Sporting Bet) 2pts Win Unleashed 20-1 (Ladbrokes)

[stewartd14]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) :clap:clap with ASK today Phil - Excellent winner for you.

[fintron]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) well done mate, didn't realise you had Ask as well as Frozen Fire :clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

:clap:clap with ASK today Phil - Excellent winner for you.

well done mate' date=' didn't realise you had Ask as well as Frozen Fire :clap[/quote'] Cheers guys, I was annoyed that I let it pass me by at York so got some compensation with it today. The key for me was that it wasn't held up too far away because it doesn't have a blinding turn of foot but has some acceleration and battles and stays well, cracking race and a great finish. Really disappointed with Rainbow View, no excuses for it today, just felt it wasn't good enough and credit to Spencer on Sariska, avoided trafiic problems with getting to the front early and battled well to the line. Initial thoughts are that Crowded House is overpriced and has been dismissed for one poor run, could be a Spencer Classic double. Happy that Sariska won though, York did an offer that if any horse from the Dante meeting won a classic you would get free entry to a race meeting at the course later in the year. Still got my ticket so a nice free entry into the races to look forward to. :clap 5pts EW Yahrab - Lost -10pts 5pts EW Fiulin - Lost -10pts 12pts WIN Ask 11-2 - WON - 78pts return (+66pts) 8pts WIN Frozen Fire - Lost -8pts 20pts Rainbow View - Lost -20pts 5pts Win Sagara - Lost -5pts 3pts Win Halicarnassus - Lost -3pts 2pts Win Unleashed - Lost -2pts New Bank 134pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 277pts Selections 34 Winners/Places 5 Losers 29 Strike Rate 15% Profit/Loss -66pts Decided to separate Ante Post Bets as I feel they can often give a false reading to a thread, I could hit ten losers but then 1 ante post bet may put me back in profit and I feel it creates a false impression, that works both way with winners and losers and the point could be proven tomorrow if Gan Amhras wins the Derby. Ante Post Bets 5pts EW Ouster (Epsom Derby) - N/R -10pts 5pts EW Enticement (Epsom Oaks) - N/R -10pts 5pts EW Gan Amhras (Epsom Derby) 16-1 - To Run

[bowles10]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Phil, well done on ASK, regarding Rainbow View though it was always a doubtful stayer in my book, add to that the undulating track at Epsom, i couldnt give it a chance. It has only had one race round a bend at Ascot over a mile last season.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Cheers Bowles :ok Saturday 6th June 2.25 Epsom Princess Elizabeth Stakes 6 winning favourites in the last 10 years and 6 winners have been 4 year old in the last 10 years. Spacious fits both these categories and is a worthy favourite. It has good form behind Halfway To Heaven, Lush Lashes and Natagora but has been off course for 232 days. Interesting that Murtagh takes the ride, Spencer often rides for Fanshawe and he does not have a ride in this race. I don't like short prices horses though, especially under 2-1 and have a poor record with them so will oppose it with a progressive 3 year old that I feel is a group winner waiting to happen. That horse is Baileys Cacao. It was 6th in a Group 1 behind Again but on soft ground. When running on soft ground again it was 12th of 16 in a Group 3 race. It ran in the fillies Goffs million and was 2nd despite meeting trouble in running and putting up a very good performance, if you look to the horse that finished 6th it reads High Heeled, that was 3rd in the Oaks and bolsters that form somewhat. It was 4th in a Group 2 over 7f on good ground but missed the break and was running on at the end of the race. It was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths and I feel that was a decent effort. That race was won by Lahaleeb and that went on to win a Group 3 and finish 2nd to Again in the Irish 1000 Guineas, only losing by a neck. The horse was 2nd by a nose in a fillies Group 3 race but ran on and was only a nostril away from being a Group 3 winner. Last time out it ran against the colts and was not good enough. It should have more wins on its record than the 2 it holds but I think the form is strong and I like the way it has run on over 7f. It seems tactically versatile, it has front run, tracked leaders and being held up and at 4 times the price of the favourite is my idea of a value alternative. Bet to follow once more prices available.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Epsom Derby 3.45 The first few I've written off that just don't seem good enough are Age Of Aqauarius, Debussy, Golden Sword, Kite Wood, Masterofthehorse, Montaff, and South Easter (doubtful runner anyway). I have been impressed with Sea The Stars but the sires pedigree reads 8.5f and I have doubts if it will get the trip in a truly run race, the O Brien horses will ensure a good pace and expose this as a non stayer over this trip in my opinion. Rip Van Winkle is a favourite of Murtaghs but has been priced up on him selecting it and potential, yet I feel it might not get this trip but in time prove to be a top class horse over 1m2f. Too short in the betting for my liking. Fame and Glory is unbeaten and might have Murtagh thinking he has chosen the wrong horse, hard to oppose it, done everything asked of it so far. Black Bear Island has a chance at a decent price and ran well in the Dante, running down Freemantle and looking like it will take an extra 2f in its stride. Gan Amhras is out of Galileo and is my idea of the winner, New Approach was also out of Galileo and both looked bred to get this 1m4f trip. Lacked pace over 1m and looked to be crying out for a step up in trip, kept fresh for this race since the guineas. Finally, Crowded House was too bad to be true last time out but I feel that run has to be ignored and was not a true reflection of the horses ability. It might have been just exposed and outclassed but the trainer made comments before that race saying he had left some work to do with the horse and the main aim was Epsom. I feel he had not got enough work into the horse, it ran flat and scoped badly and was pushed out to a silly price. The RP trophy form has not worked out but the performance that day was eyecatching and if fully fit and ready to go it has to be backed at a massive price. Already Advised 5pts EW Gan Amhras 16-1 Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Black Bear Island 8-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 odds first 3 5pts EW Crowded House 20-1 Bet365 1/4 odds first 3 (BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 2.25 Epsom Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Baileys Cacao 16-1 BlueSquare 1/5 odds first 3 Reasoning as above and currently on the drift, possibly due to the rain.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Alexandros/Gladiatorus 2.30 Ascot I fancy both Godolphin horses for this contest as I feel Paco Boy is a 7f specialist and struggles to get 1m when there is a real fast pace and it faded in the last 200yds last time out to suggest to me it does not get 1m at Gp 1 level. Gladiatorus had Alexandros 5l behind last time out at Nad Al Sheba and Alexandros followed up with a 2nd to Virtual on slower ground. Dettori dropped the whip in that race and still managed to grab 2nd, only losing out by a nose. Godolphin have a great record in this race and can take it again with eiother the 1st or 2nd string. Interesting that Ajtebi keeps the ride as he seems to get on well with the horse. Main Aim seems to be improving but has only a Gp 3 win to its name and was well beaten in 2 listed races. I can't fancy Main Aim and Paco Boy so the Godolphin 2 look the ones to beat. Suggested Bets: 14pts WIN Gladiatorus 5/2 Bet365 6pts WIN Alexandros 13/2 Bet365

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Just trying to keep a track on results: 5pts EW Baileys Cacao - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Black Bear Island - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Crowded House - LOST -10pts *(Ante Post 5pts EW Gan Amhras - LOST -10pts)* 14pts WIN - Gladiatorus - LOST -14pts 6pts WIN - Alexandros - LOST -6pts

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 3.45 Ascot I feel this is a 2 horse race but some bigger priced horses could grab a place. Mastercraftsman and Delegator both ran in the 2000 Guineas and then reopposed in the Irish version. The time in the guineas was 1m 35secs on gd-fm ground and for me Mastercraftsman was tapped for toe and did not have the pace to go over 1m and compete with top class Gp 1 horses. Delegator was 2nd, only 1 1/2 length behind Sea The Stars and that has proven to be top class by winning the Derby. When they reopposed in Ireland the time was 1m 48secs, 13 secs slower than the English Guineas and that is a worry for me although it was heavy ground. That didn't suit Delegator and neither did the ground or the way it was held up by Spencer. I don't feel you can hold up a horse on heavy when it is unsuited by the ground and expect it to quicken when it needs a firm surface to propel itself forward. I actually thought they would pull it out of the race due to heavy ground. Delegator also won the Craven and Sans Frontieres boosted that form with a 3rd in the Dante at York. Lord Shankill and Intense Focus can improve for their seasonal debuts and I expect them to go close today at decent prices. Intense Focus won the Dewhurst and had Delegator, Rip Van Winkle, Soul City and Lord Shanakill in behind. The way Jimmy Fortune talks about the horse sounds positive, he was really happy to be back on board and will hope to prove the connections right by replacing Spencer with him. At the odds available I can't touch Mastercraftsman. Suggested Bets: (all 1/4 odds 1st 3) 2.5pts EW Intense Focus 14-1 Betfred 2.5pts EW Lord Shanakill 25-1 Totesport 10pts EW Delegator 9-2 W Hill

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 2.5pts EW Intense Focus - LOST -5pts 2.5pts EW Lord Shanakill 25-1 - PLACED, return 18.13 (+13.13pts) 10pts EW Delegator 9-2 - PLACED, return 21.25pts (+1.25pts) Ante Post Bets (-30pts) New Bank 93.38pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 347pts Selections 42 Winners/Places 7 Losers 35 Strike Rate 17% Profit/Loss -106.62pts