Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

How did Swop run? I didn't see the race but backed it when I saw you had posted it in BBOTD thread, very profitable day for me on Betfair with that Curragh race.

A bit disappointing really as they backed it in to 6/1, made some late headway probably wants the mile. Anyway nobody should follow my flat tips:lol Chuffed for you mate, not many carry on when their threads go into a big loss, well done.

[chris34]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Well done mowgli been a good weekend of racing you seem to have hit a rich vein of form, keep it up mate!!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

Well done mowgli been a good weekend of racing you seem to have hit a rich vein of form' date=' keep it up mate!![/quote'] Cheers. :cheers

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Arabian Pride 3.35 Ripon I think this horse is massively overpriced when you look at the formlines it holds compared to todays rivals. Some of the shorter priced horses have had other horses from their races go on to win class 4 handicaps while this horse has been competing with horses rated vastly superior to it. RP site says consistent rather than progressive but that is not exactly a bad thing when you look at the other horses it has faced. It has taken 5 runs for it to get off the mark but last time out it beat an odds on rival that was rated as 22lb superior to it with a fine front running ride by Joe Fanning. That horse Rakaan was 2nd to Canford Cliffs on its debut and then 3rd to Canford Cliffs in a Gp 2 race at Ascot. The race before that saw Arabian Pride 2nd to Taajub, just beaten 2 1/4 lengths and that horse went on to run a blinder at York in a Gp2, finishing 2nd, 2 lengths behind the very impressive Showcasing. The trainer won this race last year with an Evens favourite and today sends a rank outsider 182 miles that was available at 33's with Stan James this morning. It likes to front run and has a very capable jockey for these tactics on board in Daryll Holland. He has a 24% strike rate at this track. The trainer has a 50% strike rate. Bearing in mind the form with Taajub that horse is now officially rated 108 while Arabian Pride races today off 91 and was only beaten by just over 2 lengths. Seems like a sound each way bet to me, I've had some 34.0 and 40.0 on Betfair for the win and it was 5.0 or so for the place. Having a problem with Stan James at the moment, can't remember opening an account with them but it says someone with same details as me has done so??? Need to ring them now and find out. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN 33-1 Stan James (They still go 33's despite the non runner)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Termagant won at 16-1 (BOG), will update totals this weekend. One for today: Art Connoisseur 3.30 Haydock (EACH WAY) Looking through the race I noticed a lot of these runners like to be held up, including likely favourite High Standing. The same applies to this horse and Hayley Turner will be hoping to be challenging Kieren Fallon at the business end of the race, she has already beaten him on his first ride back on the all weather and can follow his mount as he is a very good judge of pace in a race and they are drawn 6 and 8. It has had 4 races this season, won one and unplaced in 3 but all 3 of those have had very valid reasons for the poor finishing positions. It was 7th to Ouqba on its seasonal debut but got no sort of run 1f out and was eased down, the distance it lost by is a bit misleading. That race was over 7f and the horse pulled hard and did not settle for Jamie Spencer. He had ridden the horse every time and won 3 times on it at the start of its career. I also belive the horse had some kind of injury too. Queally took over in the saddle for the next race and won the Gp1 Golden Jubilee Stakes at Ascot, both JJ The Jet Plane and Kingsgate Native were behind it that day and it earned a rating of 119 and still holds that same rating today. That race was over 6f on gd-fm, the horse settled and came late with a powerful run to win by a neck. Spencer was back in the saddle for the ride at Newmarket and gave it an awful ride that day. Racing had clearly suited those racing prominently and up with the pace that day, Spencer had the horse anchored at the back of the field and it was never in with a chance, when it finally started its run the others had flown so Spencer eased it down to lose by 20 lengths which was again misleading. Hayley Turner took over last time out at York over 5f but the race was soon over when the saddle slipped and you really have to forget any race where that happens, it would be like an F1 driver trying to win with a puncture. She also takes the ride today and will be hoping for no more slip ups like last time out. The horse seems to need fast ground but won its first 3 races of its career on soft, good and good to firm. Its last win at Ascot was on good to firm but if this ground is not too slow I think it will have a real chance and the odds of 28-1 (1/4 odds) and 33-1 (1/5 odds) are way too high for a Gp1 winner that is suited by 6f, drawn well and should go on good ground. It will obviously need luck in running if delivered late and could be much better than given credit for, unlucky losers can be costly to follow but it was more of a poorly ridden loser than a horse not getting the gaps. I'm glad it has been written off as the odds do not reflect its chances of winning, if it finishes 1st they will talk about a shock big priced winner but it will be no shock to anyone that has reviewed the form/performance of the horse. I feel it should be nearer half the odds at around 12-1/14-1 so will go each way on it. 5pts EW 33-1 Ladbrokes (1/5 odds 1st 3)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Chester 3.15 Traffic Guard was impressive stepping up to this trip but had not won for two years previous to that and is being priced up on the strength of one run. Blue Bajan has better form over the jumps and is 0-8 in class 1 races on the flat, way too short in the betting today. I don’t fancy Cheshire Prince despite course form, 0-3 in class 1 company and 1-5 in class 2 races, well beaten in much poorer races than this. Hatton Flight was disappointing last time out and did not race when unseating rider time before that but Buick gets on well with the horse, raced at the rear last time out when it needs to be in touch with the leaders, too early to write it off. Indian Days is 0-8 in class 1 races, has been beaten in group races recently but is also 0-4 over 1m4f, unfancied today. Urban Poet has potential but was awful last time out, drops back in trip but not sure it went on good ground last time out, was beaten a long way from home and lot to prove now. Snoqualmie Girl had a good piece of form at 2 when behind Rainbow View in a Gp2 at Doncaster; disappointing since but slight improvement stepped up 2f last time out. Might need more cut and possible non-runner. The horse I feel is really underpriced is Blue Bajan, it should be at least double those odds in my opinion. The one I am going to back is Hatton Flight, it certainly knows how to get its head in front, had 3 in a row recently and racked up a 4 timer in lesser company before that. 6 wins from 12 races over this trip, 50% success rate and 16-1 looks value to me. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Hatton Flight 16-1 >William Hill 1/4 odds 1st 2

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Will be ending this thread soon so will get it all up to date soon along with the 10 to follow after this weekend. One for tomorrow for the thread: Enticement 3.45 Newmarket Enticement won both its races as a 2 yr old and looked one to follow at 3 but it has so far failed to impress. It ran in the Musidora at York against Sariska and High Heeled but while I was there I had backed it but then commented that it did not go to post very well and looked like it would need softer ground, it was 3rd to Sariska by 7 1/4 lengths but on ground that was way too firm. It ran again in June at Saint Cloud but over 12f and was last of 8 to suggest there may be something amiss with the horse rather than just ground as it ran on soft that day. It has not been seen since and reappears today after 110 days off the track but I have been eagerly awaiting its comeback and hoping to see it on good or gd-sft ground and back over 10f. Ryan Moore has decided to ride Leocorno instead of this one but I feel it has ability and conditions today could see the horse perform to that ability and make a mockery of its odds of 16-1. Its last 2 races were Gp3 and Gp2 races and this is a listed contest. Trained by Stoute and owned by the Queen and is ridden by Jimmy Fortune, who happens to have ridden the winner of this race in 2001 and 2002. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW 14-1 Bet365 BOG 1/4 odds 1st 3

[RussP]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Great stuff Phil:clap. Could be signing off for the flat in super style, well done buddy.

[bowles10]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) nice pick up there mate, well done

[kevsul]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Superb winner Phil :clap:clap

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Well done Phil:clap

[chris34]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Nice end to season for ya well done!!

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) I was going to look into the chances of Steele Tango but didn't have time so left the race alone and didn't back it, have backed it before once or twice in this thread I think. Could not believe it when I saw it had won at 25-1. :wall Happy with the Enticement result, not seen the race yet but will try catch up in the morning. Thanks to all for the kind words, much appreciated. :ok Nice to come back from hols with a winner.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Tariq (EW) 1.50 Newmarket Won here on its debut in 2006, rattled up a hat trick of wins in 2007, progressing from listed to gp3 to gp 2 and earned a 114 rating. One of those races was over course and distance. It has gone backwards since and has not placed in 3 races so far in 2009. One of those was on soft over 1m and in its last race it got bumped at the start. It has ideal conditions today, ideal trip and has Kieren Fallon on board so there are no excuses today. The stats give me confidence too, the horse is 5 year old and this race was won by a 5 year old horse in 2006,2005, and 2004 and a 6 year old won the race in 1999 with Kieren Fallon on board. Only 2 fav's have won this race in the last 10 years and although the price for Tariq at around 25-1 might put some people off the race has a history of big price winners: 2007,2005,2001,2000 - 20-1 winner. 2003 - 16-1 winner. Currently 25-1 with Stan James yet Bet365 only offer 14-1 and ew terms with SJ are 1/4 odds rather than 1/5th odds of many other bookies. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW 25-1 Stan James 1/4 odds

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Newmarket 3.00 I think the top 3 in the betting are the best 3 in the race and hard to see any outsiders causing any upsets. Fame and Glory has some fantastic form with Sea The Stars but has just been found out by a great horse each time and had to live in its shadow for the season. It is a very good horse but I believe Sariska is a very good filly and it gets 3lb from that horse today sex allowance. It was found to be in season when beaten by Dar Re Mi, had a form boost yesterday when Enticement won at this track and had previously beaten that by 7 1/4 lengths at York and although it is said to need cut in the ground that win at York was on gd-fm and Bell does not seem too concerned by the ground at Newmarket and seems confident about its chances. At the prices I fancy Sariska and also feel Mawatheeq is a horse going the right way, it has won in a convincing manner, smoothly making headway and finding plenty and looks very progressive. I am taking Sariska and Mawatheeq against Fame and Glory for this race as I feel there is more value and shorter trip of 1m2f will not be an inconvenience. I also think Bowles has pointed out it is not a great race for fav's and I have the feeling the Arc may have been a race too far this season for Fame and Glory. 7pts WIN Sariska 11/2 >Bet365 BOG 3pts WIN Mawatheeq 7-1 Paddypower

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 4pts WIN - Termagant 12-1 >Bet365 BOG Won at 16-1, 4pts staked, 68pts return (+64pts) 6pts WIN - Gile Na Greine 6-1 >Bet365 BOG Lost (-6pts) Arabian Pride 10pts WIN 33-1 Lost (-10pts) Art Connoisseur 5pts EW 33-1 Ladbrokes Lost (-10pts) 5pts EW Hatton Flight 16-1 >William Hill Lost (-10pts) Enticement 5pts EW 14-1 Bet365 BOG 1/4 odds WON, 10pts staked, 97.50pts return (+87.50) Tariq 5pts EW 25-1 Stan James Lost (-10pts) 7pts WIN Sariska Lost (-7pts) 3pts WIN Mawatheeq Lost (-3pts) New Bank 229.26pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 852pts Selections 95 Winners/Places 21 Losers 74 Strike Rate 22% Profit/Loss +29.26pts Thread closed until flat season 2010 but finally ended it in profit, albeit only 29pts profit but the thread was on it's arse a while back and in minus figures. I seem to have a knack of getting these bigger priced winners and feel I have an eye for value and need to keep that in mind for next season, making sure I'm not tempted into short priced horses. I have enjoyed seeing Sea The Stars destroy all before it this season and its been good to see someone other than just Aidan O Brien firing in the Gp 1 winners. I wish I had got to more flat meetings than I have, been to Ponty a few times and went to the Dante meeting but apart from that I haven't really been at the track. Looking forward to the jumps season now, was going to start a thread today with Monets Garden but thought I'd wait a few weeks until trainers are in form and the trials kick off. Thanks to anyone who has offered support throughout this flat season. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Well done Phil, nice to see you in profit mate, it must have felt like banging your head against a brick wall at times, thats the difference with certain guys on the PL though, most would have quit the thread and reinvented it under another name or just let it disappear, respect:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

Well done Phil' date=' nice to see you in profit mate, it must have felt like banging your head against a brick wall at times, thats the difference with certain guys on the PL though, most would have quit the thread and reinvented it under another name or just let it disappear, respect:ok[/quote'] Cheers BH. I know I once deleted a jumps thread I started but it was because there was no theory behind the bets rather than because it had a few losers and it was early on in the season. I like to follow a few specific horses over the jumps and try find those progressive sorts whereas with the flat I like to go for the all age listed and above races and avoid 2 yr old races. I was willing to try my best to get this back in profit and I'm pleased to have achieved it, didn't look possible when it was in minus figures. Trying to win the October BBOTD now to make it a good month. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Going to restart this thread for the 2010 season, kept my diary of horses from 2009, will remove some of these and add others but only horses that count will be ones I post in here as bets. I had No Hubris today but I'm not including it as it seems unfair to start on a winner that wasn't posted here. For the purposes of the thread I will post up best odds available rather than odds I have taken as I don't have online accounts with all bookies and starting bank will be 200pts. Most bets will be 5pts EW or 10pts WIN unless I back a few to win in the same race. Here are notes from 2009:

Horse	Distance	Ground	Class	Comments
Ask	12f/14f	Gd/Gd-Sft	Group 1	Finally won Gp 1 in battling finish with Youmzain, also won well at York when positioned well towards final 2f. Has 2 Gp 1 entries and may run well in Arc De Triomphe, held up too long last year with no chance.
Beacon Lodge	1m	Good	Gp2	Waited with patiently at the back of the field, started its run too late but finished really well to end up close to Delegator and can take a listed race or Gp3.
Big Apple Boy	6f	Gd-Fm	Class 4	I backed Big Apple Boy and Spiritual Art in the 6th race and they finished 1st and last. Big Apple Boy had been running over 1m but fading about 1f/2f out yet had won a maiden race here over 6f. It was not a great field but it won really well from the front by 6 lengths. It burst clear and was eased and I will be backing it if it returns here with 2 course wins now to its name.
Brilliana	1m2f	Gd-Fm	Class 5	I like Johnstones horses on their 2nd runs as they always seem to improve and I like Joe Fanning from the front and backed both the winner and 2nd, both to win. He made all on Straits of Hormuz, just beating Brilliana by a neck and both showed ability and could be worth following if the handicapper does not overreact.
Casual Conquest	12f	Good or softer	Group races	2nd to Bronze Cannon on seasonal debut but ground was too firm. That horse won Gp 2 at Royal Ascot boosting form. 3rd in English Derby 08 and 2nd in Irish Derby 08. Often tracks leaders but made all on heavy and won by 5l. Arc the target and can go well if getting prominent position.
Crystal Capella	10f/12f	Any	Group races	Won 6 in a row, rallied to beat Dar Re Mi off 108 and showed great determination and attitude to do so. Now rated 116, entered in Pretty Polly stakes.
Dar Re Mi	10f/12f	Good	Group races	2nd in Gp 1 races to Zarkava and Lush Lashes, 2nd to Crystal Capella at York. Top class horse, entered in Pretty Polly and Princess Of Wales races, has 3 wins and rated 114.
Enticement	1m2f	Gd-Sft	Gp3/Gp2/Gp1	3rd in Musidora but hated firm ground, won other 2 races, avoided Oaks and was a 310,000 guineas purchase. Still plenty of improvement in this horse when the ground softens, definite future group winner.
Fat Boy	6f	Gd-Fm	Listed	Raced quite prominently and then allowed to just fall back through the field, jockey made no effort and hands and heels home, on a very winnable handicap mark now and can exploit it.
Furmigadelaguista	1m4f	Gd-Fm	Listed	Won well at York on Gd-Sft ground, up 8lb and to listed from class 2 but travelled well, not even given a hard race, stays every inch of the trip, finished well and progressive over this distance and now shown versatility with ground. Melbourne Cup a possibility, definitely worth following over 1m4f.
Hel’s Angel	1m +	Gd-Fm	Class 5	Hel's Angel ran a cracking race and despite what I said about those coming off the pace it was held up and picked up really well at the finish under a great ride from young Jamie Kyne who is well worth his claim. It had won off 65 but then finished unplaced off 69 and 70 but today raced off 69 and had the jockey taking another 5lb off. Suits being held up and delivered late and is from the Middleham Park outfit that also have the PL horse Dhaular Dhar. I'd be interested in Hel's Angel again, seemed to really go well on the good to firm ground and would possibly get a bit further.
Jack My Boy	6f	Gd-Fm	Class 3	I backed Jack My Boy but took 10/3 on course because I thought others would shorten after seeing the fav in the parade ring, it drifted to a best priced 7-1 on course but I really couldn't understand why it drifted, was fine in the paddock and seemed to go to post ok. I will keep an eye on Jack My Boy, it had not acted at Epsom, which is understandable as some horses just don't take to that track and was back in class 3 company from a listed race last time out.
Mourilyan	1m6f	Good	Listed	Good previous form with Schiaparelli and Kite Wood, given great ride this time by Ryan Moore, needs cover, delivered late but found plenty when the gap came, will go on from here and probably in better company.
Mr Crystal	2m2f	Gd-Fm	4	2nd twice off 77 rating, lost position and shuffled back in the field when turning for home, had to switch to the rail but ran on again and just denied. Beaten 7l last time out but was 18l clear of the horse in 3rd. Suited by uphill finish, stays well, improving and worth following despite imminent raise in handicap.
No Hubris	6f	Gd/Gd-Fm	Listed/Gp 3	Impressive at York on debut, well backed, forged clear. 6th in Coventry behind impressive Canford Cliffs, tried to go pace with winner and faded. Entered in 2010 Derby, can win before then.
Nosedive	5f	Gd/Gd-Fm	Listed/Group	Won maiden well and finished strongly. Ran well and 4th in Gp 2 at Royal Ascot behind Radiohead, hampered, unable to keep momentum going, would have been closer with clear run. Worth following again next time out.
Royal and Regal	2m	Gd-Fm	Group 2	Travelled really well and jockey had a double handful close to home, reports say horse faded etc but jockey was not hard on the horse, hardly hitting it with the whip and almost stopped riding it, one to follow.
Sans Frontieres	10f/12f	Good	Group races	Staying on in the craven, stepped up to 10f at York and finished 3rd, held up too long. Avoided Epsom, should suit York/Ascot and entered in Irish Derby. Dante form not too strong but improving horse and worth following.
Shamwari Lodge	1m	Gd-Fm	Class 2	Travelled well, quickened smartly but could be value for further, almost pulled up and eased down it won so easily. Raced off 95, worth at least 6lb more than that.
Spiekeroog	1m4f	Gd-Fm	5	Form of debut worked out well. Held up here, pushed along early and looked beaten but finished like a train up the hill. May have needed the experience, certainly changed gears at the final furlong and one to keep an eye on in the future on fast ground, may need to race more prominently.
Spiritual Art	6f	Gd-Fm	Class 4	I backed Big Apple Boy and Spiritual Art in the 6th race and they finished 1st and last. Spiritual Art had won class 6 and class 5 handicaps really easily under Hayley Turner, was up 12lb but had a 7lb claimer on and got hampered for a run. It was too far out the back to make a challenge and had not broke out of the stalls very well. Could still be worth following in my opinion in class 4/5 races and previously had no experience of gd-fm ground.
Straits Of Hormuz	1m2f	Gd-Fm	Class 5	I like Johnstones horses on their 2nd runs as they always seem to improve and I like Joe Fanning from the front and backed both the winner and 2nd, both to win. He made all on Straits of Hormuz, just beating Brilliana by a neck and both showed ability and could be worth following if the handicapper does not overreact.
Suzis Decision	10f/12f	Gd/Gd-Fm	Listed	3rd to Crystal Capella, that one now Gp2 and Gp 3 winner. Won 2 listed races, both over 12f but also won over 10f. Finishes its races well, needs a track that suits hold up horses ideally, now rated 107, last win off 100 but won well by over 2l, still improving and one to follow.
Swiss Diva	6f	Gd-Sft	3/2/Listed	Won easily at Lingfield, disappointed on ground too firm but won at York in class 2 race off 91 rating. Up to 101 now, listed races from now on and capable off this rating, still improving. Spencer/Moore both won on it.
Tyrrells Wood	17f/22f	Gd/Gd-Fm	4/2	Beat Mr Crystal by 7l off 75 rating at Ponty. Followed up with 2nd in class 2 off 83 at Royal Ascot over further. Stays all day, only 4 yr old, rapidly improving and one to follow in all staying races. Also finished 8th in Gd1 Triumph hurdle.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Horses yet to add are: Bated Breath Icon Dream

[fintron]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) good luck for 2010 phil, make sure you keep a few back for the Dante meeting eh ;):

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) Beacon Lodge 3.40 Sandown (2.5pts EW 16-1 >Bet365) (1/4 odds 1st 3 - BOG) I'm not overly confident about this one based on the fact Paco Boy is in the line up and has beaten this previously by 10 lengths. It ran close to both Delegator and Zacinto, was only beaten just over 2 lengths by Zacinto. That was rated 107 that day but is now rated 122 (15lb better) and Beacon Lodge has kept the same official rating of 113 but could be slightly better than that and is worth small each way money at 16-1. I see it as a listed/Group 3 winner that could be a Group 2 winner with a bit of improvement. It has form on good ground and has won over 1m. The Cheka 3.40 Sandown (5pts EW 12-1 >Bet365) (1/4 odds 1st 3 - BOG) Won impressively by 10 lengths on its debut and was then 2nd to Sri Putra at this track. That horse won a Group 3 race on the 15th April. It quickened away and won easily on gd-sft and then also won on soft yet they said it needs better ground so good ground should suit today. Only had one run as a 3 year old and won that race after a 321 day break. Only 4 year old now and that age group have won the last 4 renewals of this race, Paco Boy is now 5 year old but the 4 year olds look full of potential and improvement. Interesting race, interesting runner and interesting jockey booking with Kieren Fallon on board. Stayed on strongly over 7f, 1m should be fine. (Was going to be 2.5pts ew but going 5pts ew now, more confident with this than Beacon Lodge)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) Crowded House 4.15 Sandown 15pts WIN (3-1 >Bet365 BOG) Redwood 4.15 Sandown 5pts WIN (12-1 >Bet365 BOG) I think the prices for most of the field are about right but feel they have got Laaheb and Crowded House the wrong way round, it's currently 3-1 Crowded House and 7-4 Laaheb. Laaheb has won a maiden, 2 handicaps and a listed race and goes off 7-4 favourite. It has only failed to be 1st or 2nd on its debut and looks progressive but has no form above listed level and the 7-4 is about potential. Crowded House has a Group 1 win and two seconds in Group 3 races worth 74k that really should have been wins. It was fancied for last years Derby but was hampered in that race. In the Meydan races it has been finishing well but left with too much to do. It needs to come from off a quick pace and takes some time to find its stride, it finishes like a train but needs to be released earlier so it is getting up on the line and not getting beat on the line. The booking of Kieren Fallon is a huge positive, he is top class when he is on the best horses and will adapt if there is no pace. I expect it to be covered up but I want to see it sent for home about 2f-2 1/2f out from home. The Racing Post trophy win was on good ground and it should go ok on this surface. It has a string of Group 1 entries and I feel if it is ridden properly it will prove itself as a genuine Group 1 performer. Steele Tango and Tranquil Tiger are decent listed/group 3 performers at best, Glass Harmonium has potential but a lot to prove, Redwood might be one to spring a shock as it is lightly raced and unexposed and Soul City was well beaten in Group 1 and Group 3 races. Redwood is the one that worries me most and they felt it needs a chance to prove it is better than shown in the Dante, 12-1 could be a big price.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010)

Beacon Lodge 3.40 Sandown (2.5pts EW 16-1 >Bet365) (1/4 odds 1st 3 - BOG) LOST (-5pts) The Cheka 3.40 Sandown (5pts EW 12-1 >Bet365) (1/4 odds 1st 3 - BOG) PLACED - 10pts staked, 22.5pts returned (+12.5pts)

Crowded House 4.15 Sandown 15pts WIN (3-1 >Bet365 BOG) LOST (-15pts) Redwood 4.15 Sandown 5pts WIN (12-1 >Bet365 BOG) LOST (-5pts)

Starting Bank: 200pts Bets:4 Wins:0 Places:1 New Bank: 187.5pts Not seen any racing yet as I was at footy and just watched boxing, want to see Crowded House as RP comments on iphone mention it getting hampered twice. Sounds unlucky but yet to see the race. Bloody typical that I went win on Redwood and it was 2nd. :(

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) 2.40 Newmarket I'm happy to take on this favourite Strawberrydaiquiri because although it has won plenty of races it has not actually beaten anything worth noting, was often the top rated horse in the field and steps up in distance and class today. It has a real chance of winning but not at under 2-1. I prefer the look of Moonlife and Three Moons. Moonlife is progressing well and has finished 2nd here in a Group 3 race previously. It has form with Lahaleeb and Nashmiah, has won at listed level but more importantly being in total command and eased at the end of the 1m trip whereas horses like Spacious just about get the mile trip. It has won on good and placed on gd-sft and I fancy it to go close today at a decent price. Three Moons has Dettori on board, he has ridden the first winner and goes well at the track. That has a short head 2nd to Midday at this track as part of its form, wasn't beaten far over 10f at this track and is in good form recently, 1st and 2nd in last two races. Hoping the ground isn't too soft for it. 10pts WIN - Moonlife 6-1 BET365 10pts WIN - Three Moons 10-1 BET365

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) Going to keep ante post bets separate from the thread bets but here is the 1st: I'm interested in Chabal, the Godolphin runner. Started its career with Jim Bolger, won a miaden in Ireland and was then 2nd in a Group 1 on only its 2nd start. Failed to settle in the Dewhurst and rider dropped whip but was only 10th that day behind decent sorts such as Beethoven, Fencing Master, Xtension, Steinbeck, Dick Turpin etc. Made its seasonal debut in a 10f race at Sandown, settled well enough, made good headway, hit the front and surged clear. Could be a decent sort, it's out of Galileo, which was a 3 time Group 1 winner over 12f. Chabal is entered in the Dante on 13th May, it's currently 16-1 with Stan James, William Hill and any sort of performance in that race will see it at least halved in price. Alternatively it could run poor and drift to about 33-1 but it looks a decent sort and might be one to challenge the O'Brien horses. 5pts EW Chabal to win Derby 16-1 W. Hill (1/4 odds 1st 3) Ante Post Bet

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010)

10pts WIN - Moonlife 6-1 BET365 LOST (-10pts) 10pts WIN - Three Moons 10-1 BET365 LOST (-10pts)

Starting Bank 200pts Bets:6 Wins:0 Places:1 New Bank: 167.5pts

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) Sans Frontieres - Chester 2.15pm (Thursday 6th May 2010) I have followed this horse from its first run and have high expectations of it and really rate it highly. It has a number of Group1 entries and I feel it is a definite future Group 1 winner. I might be totally wrong about this horse but I have seen enough to feel the price available currently is way overpriced at 12-1 Ladbrokes and I would personally make it closer to half those odds. Redwood is the favourite based on its last run when 2nd to Glass Harmonium, it is hard to know how that form will work out with it being so soon after that race. It also beat Crowded House and bopth the fav and Sans Frontieres have formlines with that horse. Sans Frontieres looked like it needed the run last time out, was asked for an effort about 3f out and faded the final furlong but I also feel 1m1f was too short for it and it was just getting a run into it. I have a slight concern that 1m2f is the minimum it should be running over and it may be better suited to 1m4f+ trips in the future but still feel it could be good enough to take this race over 10f. It ran over 1m at Newmarket when 2nd to Delegator, it got slightly outpaced but then looked to stay on again at the end of the race. It ran over 10f in the Dante and was flying down the outside at the end of the race, only being beaten 1l by Black Bear Island in what was a Group 2 race that saw it finish in front of Crowded House, Redwood, Monitor Closely. It was a 450,000 guineas purchase at the sales, is out of Galileo and should pay back some of that paid if it manages to get some group wins under its belt this year. Still very lightly raced, unexposed, improving, progressive and in my opinion overpriced when you compare it to the rivals in the field that have various question marks over them and some look no better than listed class. I fully expect it to have come on for that run and it can take this race along the way to further success over longer trips and better class races. Ground expected to be good, the Dante 3rd was on good and it won on its debut on good ground too. Quietly confident about this one, for the purposes of the thread I'll take 12-1 Ladbrokes, have actually backed it on Betfair win and place. Suggested Bet: 10pts EW Sans Frontieres 12-1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 1st 3

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) 2.40 York I find it hard to see past Cabaret for this race, it's form reads 2-1-1-0 but the 0 was when the saddle slipped and has to be discounted rather than thinking the step up in class found the horse out. I always try find a potential group 1 horse in this group 3 contest and Cabaret fots the bill. It has won at group 3 level with ease when there were three co favourites, all priced 2-1 but it won in style. Pedigree suggests the step up to 10f will be fine and although O'Briens horses seem out of form for this time of year he has still had 5 winners in the last 14 days. Eleanora Duse is an interesting runner but looks outclassed and has no big race entries while Pink Symphony could be the outsider to spring a shock, has won on good ground and over 10f but has 20lb to find with Cabaret on official ratings and the likely late run from Spencer might not be enough to reel in Murtagh if he has already kicked for home. Aviate is a real live danger and probably will go off as favourite, the fact it has entries over 1m and 1m4f suggests this race will help with future plans but also suggests they are not sure it will get 10f. Only 1lb difference with Cabaret and could be a thrilling end to this race. Cabaret 10pts WIN 5/2 >PaddyPower 1pt WIN Pink Symphony 14-1 >PaddyPower

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT 2010) 1.40 York Forte Dei Marmi and Imposing are likely to be well supported but on achievements so far seem too short in the betting to me. I will only be going small stakes in this race and backing two, which are Recession Proof and Changing The Guard. Recession Proof was 2nd off 68 in a class 5 handicap at Newmarket. It then hacked up in a class 5 handicap at Newbury eased down off a rating of 70, turned out quickly under a penalty and won again, this time by 9 lengths off a rating of 76. Turned out quickly again off 82, in a class 2 handicap and was 2nd. All those 4 races were over 10f and all on good ground, same race distance today and good ground expected. Stepped up to 15f off a rating of 88 and won a class 3 handicap, and was 5th of 8 over 14f when last seen in September off a 91 rating. Only 4 year old, this age have a good record in this race against older horses, still progressive, races off 91, dropped back to 10f and also has a 5lb claimer on board, effectively racing off 86. Races prominently or tracks leaders which is always an advantage at this course. (2.5 pts EW 14-1 >Bet365 BOG) Changing The Guard looks to be Fahey's 2nd string but this is a course and distance winner and scored here off a rating of 84 but Tylicki had a 5lb claim back then. He can't claim 5lbs now but seems to ride the course well and clearly gets on with the horse. That course win was on good ground and in a class 2 handicap but this one is often waited with and delivered about 2f out. It pulled hard last time out under Paul Hanagan and was 10th of 16 at Goodwood, weakening 1f out. Races off 87 which is a fair enough mark and only 4 year old with potential to be a 90+ horse. I am not concerned that Red Jade seems to be the stables 1st choice and fancy this at a nice price. (2.5 pts EW 16-1 >Bet365 BOG)