mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 3.05 Ascot Windsor Forest Stakes Gp 2 1m Gd-Fm The outsiders look also outclassed and it is easy using form study and concentrating on classes of races to dispose of Rosaleen, Chantilly Tiffany, Royal Confidence and She's Our Mark. Spacious has run in 4 Group 1 races and finished 4th, 4th, 4th and 2nd. I can't see why today will be any different. It was 3rd in a Group 3 on seasonal return and needs better form than that to win this race. Proviso has placed in a few Group 1 races, including here at Ascot but has not run on ground quicker than good and nearly always performs well on soft ground, can't see it liking this ground or having the class to win. Heaven Sent will go on the ground but has had 3 runs at Group 1 level and finished 3rd, 4th and 5th. There are possible tales of it being an unlucky loser, getting bumped or hampered but I feel it simply wasn't good enough. It has place prospects but I can't see it winning and I don't want to back it each way at 11/4. Eva's Request looks outclassed and has no Group 1 or Group 2 placed form and could only manage 8th in last years Irish 1000 Guineas but its last 2 runs have been impressive, winning a listed race and a Group 3 race. The Group 3 win saw it finish 5 lengths in front of Spacious and it could grab place money today in this better contest. That leaves us with just Lush Lashes to cover. This horse for me is the only proven top class Group 1 performer in the race and I can see this being well backed today in singles and doubled up with Tartan Bearer. It has won from 8f to 12f, has beaten Spacious by over 4 lengths in a Group 1 race, lost by a head over 10f in a Group 1 race when short of room, and finished 2nd in France in a Group 1 race on gd-sft ground. It was 3rd last time out on heavy ground but I felt it needed to be backed when back on a firmer surface and that is today. Hard to oppose this one, even with a Group 1 penalty in this Group 2 race, as long as it gets the breaks in running I can't see past it winning with Eva's Request/Spacious/Heaven Sent possibly a few lengths back in 2nd. Suggested Bets: 20pts WIN - Lush Lashes 13/8 Bet365 BOG 2.5pts EW Eva's Request 9-1 PaddyPower 1/4 odds first 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 3.45 Ascot 1m2f Gp 1 Gd-Fm The previous winners of this race read like a who's who of top class horses with horses like Azamour, Manduro, Ouija Board, Dubai Millenium and Fantastic Light having taken this race. Tartan Bearer could follow in their footsteps today and has some top class form already. It has never been out of the first 3, won the 2008 Dante (beating Frozen Fire and Twice Over), was 2nd in the 2008 Derby (form there with Frozen Fire, Casual Conquest and New Approach) and was then 3rd in the Irish Derby when it looked to be the winner and was carried across the track by Alessandra Volta (form again with Frozen Fire and Casual Conquest). It won a Group 3 on this years seasonal debut, just getting up to deny Pipedreamer but it is well known that Stoute does well with older horses and Ask has highlighted that already this year. Ryan Moore has been on board every time except its maiden win and knows the horses capabilities and how best to ride it. It has won on gd-sft, gd and gd-fm so there are no excuses there today. Never On Sunday seems to be progressing well and finally won a Group 1 race in France over 9f last time out but before that was beaten by around 5 lengths by the Godolphin horse Trincot and that one is around 16-1 today. Trincot followed up with a 2nd in an Italian Group 1 since and looks a big price but it is hard to be fully confident after Godolphins poor show yesterday, especially in the first race. Twice Over could still be open to some improvement and looks a decent ew bet at around 10-1 but I can't see it winning so might be worth a place only bet on the exchanges. Virtual is now a Group 1 winner but possibly needs softer ground than this and is also progressive. Vision D'Etat looks to be a real danger and is a Group 1 and Group 2 winner but has only ever raced on ground described as good or softer. It was 5th in the Arc and that form was boosted by fine performances recently by Youmzain and Ask. The usual jockey does not ride today and O Peslier takes over in the saddle. It has also just been announced that Vision D'Etat normally wears a tongue strap but won't be wearing one today as it has not been declared in one, there could have been a very costly mix up here. All the money seems to be for Tartan Bearer and it should be spot on for this race, which it can take on the road to more Group success this season. Trincot seems a big price despite the stables poor form and has already beaten Vision D'Etat and might be worth ew or place money. Suggested Bets: 20pts WIN - Tartan Bearer 7/4 Bet365 BOG 2.5pts EW Trincot 16/1 Bet365 BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Capercaillie/Misheer 4.55 Ascot I saw Misheer first hand at York and thought it did well on ground that was probably softer than ideal. Little Scotland was 3rd in that race and finished 4th yesterday here at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle Stakes. I backed Dispol Keasha in that race and followed it again when it was totally outclassed by the impressive Capercaillie at Musselburgh. Mark Johnstone feels this is his best 2 year old for a while and best chance of a Royal Ascot winner, the Musselburgh race was quicker than standard and the horse remains unbeaten so far. Misheer turned over the odds on Thomas Baines that led to much criticism of Jamie Spencer but this horse can't be underestimated, performed well on ground softer than ideal and will be better now for that run and is a listed winner. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Capercaillie 6-1 SkyBet 5pts EW Misheer 12-1 Stan James Both 1/4 odds first 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Ascot 5.30 Another 2 horses running in this race that I saw during the Dante meeting and noted as ones to follow later on. They are Photographic and Moonlife and both finished 2nd last time out at York. Photographic was unbeaten when it got to York, there was a lot of money for it and it seemed well fancied, came there looking like the winner but was caught by the fast finishing Brief Encounter. Dropped back to 7f that day yet its 2 wins had come over 1m, back up 1f to that 1m trip today and every chance again. Moonlife was 2nd in a listed race at York on gd-sft ground. Previous to that it was 2nd in a Group 3 and 5th in a Group 2 and had won at Kempton, all those races over 7f. Stepped up to 1m for the York race and only lost by a head so should get the 1m no problem. Stable form is a worry but that was also the case at York. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Photographic11/2 Bet365 BOG 5pts EW Moonlife 10/1 Stan James Both 1/4 odds first 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 20pts WIN - Lush Lashes - LOST -20pts 2.5pts EW Eva's Request 9-1, placed, 8.13pts return (+3.13pts) 20pts WIN - Tartan Bearer - LOST -20pts 2.5pts EW Trincot - LOST -5pts 5pts EW Capercaillie - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Misheer 12-1, placed, 20pts return (+10pts) 5pts EW Photographic - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Moonlife - LOST -10pts New Bank 31.51pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 437pts Selections 50 Winners/Places 9 Losers 41 Strike Rate 18% Profit/Loss -168.49pts I really thought Tartan Bearer and Lush Lashes would be hard to beat but I went looking for winners instead of value and really cost myself when I increase stakes on lower priced horses. I only back under 2-1 when very confident and I was very confident today. I have always adopted a kind of safety first approach when backing horses and back ew so if one at a bigger price places I usually get my stake back where if it wins I make a nice profit. I adopted to back 2 favourites and both surprisingly lost and I should have learnt by now but it seemed so easy to make money on 2 horses that looked unbeatable today. I suppose it helps to remind myself that they are animals and not machines, losing loads of cash this season and need a few winners this week or will be enforced to take a break for a while as I can't keep leaking so much cash. Fingers crossed for tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Ascot 2.30 There are 2 short priced horses in this race and although they look like classy sorts they have to be opposed due to the prices. Monsieur Chevalier is likely to start fav (fav's have won last 2 years) and has done nothing wrong but there are other unexposed and progressive types here and I can't have it at the odds. The American horse is an unknown quantity but clearly respected after the demolition jobs the other 2 have done this week. The last 3 winners of this race have only had 1 previous run and then came straight here after winning their maiden races and one that fits that bill that interests me is Nosedive from the Haggas yard with Ryan Moore on board. Won its maiden in decent enough style, will clearly come on for that and is a nice price. Last years winning trainer sends out Kingdom Of Light and that is a massive price considering the horses filling the next 3 places from the race it won have all followed up with wins of their own, all boosting that formline. It should go on the ground and Paul Mulrennan rides again. The final one I like at a bigger price is Here Now and Why from Kevin Ryans yard. Neil Callan is on board and has ridden this 3 times so far, it was running on for its debut and then won two 5f races really easily when going off as odds on fav both times. Was always earmarked as a Royal Ascot horse and looks a value ew shot. These are my 3 bigger priced fancies against the 2 shorties. Suggested Bets: 2.5pts EW Here Now And Why 25-1 Bet365 BOG 2.5pts EW Nosedive 16-1 Stan James 2.5pts EW Kingdom Of Light 20-1 Bet365 BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Ascot 3.05 I like the look of Leocorno but don't like the price when it has only won two lesser races and could be anything. Moore takes the ride for the first time. I also like the look of Take The Hint but I'm put off by that price too in a race where most of the contenders look progressive. I like the look of July Jasmine, it won its maiden race and then finished 6 lengths behind Midday in an Oaks trial at Lingfield but lost its balance at that course. It ran on well enough at the end of the race and interesting to see they avoided the Oaks after that. Might be seen to better effect on a track without such undulations and that form is solid with Midday only being beaten a head by the very good Sariska in the Oaks. Mick Kinane is a great booking, great judge of pace in a race and has alreay shown his class on Sea The Stars twice this season. The other one I like the look of at better odds is Flame Of Gibraltar, raced twice over 10f and won last time out at Lingfield on ground that was probably too firm. Any rain will be a plus for this horse and it looks like it will benefit from the step up to 1m4f. The race it won was nothing special but the manner in which it won caught the eye. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW July Jasmine 7/1 PaddyPower 1/4 odds 1st 3 5pts EW Flame Of Gibraltar 14/1 Bet365 BOG 1/4 odds 1st 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Ascot 3.45 Yeats aims to win this race for the 4th time but for some reason I can't see it happening. It was well beaten on its seasonal return by 32 lengths and although it may have needed the run that is worrying when Geordieland seems to be going the other way and still improving at 8 year old. It has sometimes been accused of being a bit of a bridle horse and not having the heart for a battle but it beat Patkai fair and square and still seemed to be running on at the end of the race. It has been unlucky to bump into Yeats for the last few years and this is probably its best ever chance of reversing form. Patkai has never won at Group 1 or Group 2 level and falls short on all known form. Geordieland looks to be the most likely winner for me and 3-1 is a very fair price. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN Geordieland 3/1 Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Ascot 4.55 Freemantle has some of the best form on offer after finishing 2nd in the Dante but it was allowed to lead that day and was hard to reel in on a track that suits those racing prominently. It won't be allowed to do that today if the jockeys are wise to it and the Dante form has taken a few knocks with both Black Bear Island and Kite Wood running poorly in the Derby at Epsom and Crowded House only managed 6th in that race, an improvement on the poor form showed in the Dante. At 5/4 it's one to avoid for me. Four Winds looks an improving sort, won its maiden in fine style at Sandown before finishing 3rd to Kite Wood over 1m. Stepped up to 10f and was 2nd to High Heeled at Newbury, that form took a boost when High Heeled ran a great race in the Oaks to finish 3rd by less than 3 lengths. Won over 1m last time out and expected to improve for the step back up in trip today. Monitor Closely was 4th in the Dante and was only 2 lengths behind Black Bear Island that day. It had won over 1m but then stepped up to 10f and seemed to appreciate the extra 2f when it was a head 2nd to Nehaam, Moneycantbuymelove was 5th in that race and has just won at this meeting this year. It then dropped back to 1m for the 2000 Guineas and was not disgraced to finish 8th, less than 7 lengths behind the very impressive Sea The Stars. Its last race was in the Dante and the 1m2f trip should suit today, has a good chance at a decent price. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Monitor Closely 7/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1st 3 5pts EW Four Winds 8/1 Totesport 1/4 odds 1st 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Veracity 3.45 Ascot Going to add this one today as I feel it will run well now back up in trip. I backed this at York when it was beaten by Ask but it was running over a distance too short that day and I feel it will definitely stay this trip. I'm not sure if it is top class but I am willing to pay to find out and the form with Ask worked out well when that one won again next time out. It has won over 2m and 2m2f and been a fairly close 3rd to Yeats. Money has come for the horse and I expect a decent run today. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Veracity 7-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 odds 1st 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 2.5pts EW Here Now And Why - LOST -5pts 2.5pts EW Nosedive - LOST -5pts 2.5pts EW Kingdom Of Light - LOST -5pts 5pts EW July Jasmine - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Flame Of Gibraltar 14/1 - PLACED, 22.50pts return (+12.50pts) 10pts WIN Geordieland - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Monitor Closely 7/1 - PLACED, 13.75pts return (+3.75pts) 5pts EW Four Winds - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Veracity - LOST -10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 19, 2009 Author Share Posted June 19, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Baliyana 3.45 Ascot Supplemented for this race and needs firm ground to be seen at its best. Races prominently and has made all for two wins which should suit here as those kicking early seem to be profiting as others are struggling to catch them. Disappointing on softer ground but will be seen to effect here today on this quick racing ground. Has the top jockey in the saddle in Mick Kinane and only has Elusive Wave to fear for me. I respect the french horse and feel it will run a good race, not sure about Ghanaati and hard to fancy Rainbow View after latest performances. Suggested Bet: 10pts EW Baliyana 9-1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 19, 2009 Author Share Posted June 19, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Popmurphy 4.55 Ascot Saw this horse run at Epsom and although well beaten over 10f by Debussy it was running on well at the end of the race and had built on a good debut. Outpaced last time out over 11f and expecting the trip up to 2m to suit. Trainer seems quietly confident and says the visor has worked wonders in training, he did not feel that last run was the horses true showing. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Popmurphy 14-1 everywhere Sabotage 4.55 Ascot Trainer has a good record in this race, horse was running on well on its debut over 10f and then won really easily over 12f next time out despite dwelling at the start of the race. Won on gd-fm that day and stayed on really strongly. I fancy this more than the other Johnstone horse and feel it is an ew chance. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Sabotage 8-1 everywhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 27, 2009 Author Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Curragh 3.40 Pretty Polly Stakes Only two 3 year olds in the race that could be open to any amount of improvement and quite a shock to see the Aidan O Brien horse at 25-1, that looks big considering the stables domination of Group races and also with the race being over in Ireland. Jakarta Jazz and Beach Bunny don't look good enough on what they have achieved so far although the trainer of Jakarta Jazz has won this race twice previously. Katiyra has raced in three Group 1 races and was well beaten in two of them, both on good ground. It's hard to know if it was the ground or class that caught up with the horse or both. It was 3rd in a French Group 1, beaten 3l but on good to soft ground. Look Here ran a fine race over 12f when finishing just behind Ask and Youmzain but 10f looks on the quick side considering the pedigree and the fact it was 3rd in the St Leger last year to Conduit. Dropping back in trip may be a mistake and most previous winners had been running over 10f before taking this race. A stat in its favour is the last 4 winners were favourites and this is likely favourite today. Lush Lashes has some top class form but has been disappointing this season. It had the excuse of heavy ground two runs ago but just seemed to run flat last time out and there were no obvious excuses for such a poor performance. Previous multiple Group 1 winner yet still out at 7-1 in the betting and that doesn't inspire confidence. Dar Re Mi has only had the 1 run this season when finishing 2nd to Crystal Capella at York in a thrilling finish, showing a great attitude and battling all the way to the line over 10f. It has placed group 1 form to Lush Lashes and Zarkava but both those races were over 12f. It looked fit in the paddock at York and was well supported and there is no shame about losing to the progressive Crystal Capella that has 6 wins on the bounce. I have doubts about the trip for Look Here and doubts about the ground for Katiyra and have had Dar Re Mi as one to follow since that day at York and have been eagerly awaiting its next run. John Gosden has been out of form but he still had a Group 2 winner in Bronze Cannon recently and Rainbow View put in a better and more encouraging performance. Jimmy Fortune replaces Frankie Dettori from last time and has ridden the horse 4 times with one victory but early in its career. The obvious problem with the race is the lack of front runners to set an early pace, every horse in the race either likes to race prominently and track the leaders or is held up in midfield, a tactical nightmare but could possibly play into the hands of the speed horses if it turns into a sprint. Suggested Bets: 10pts WIN Dar Re Mi 4-1 Stan James 2.5pts EW Roman Empress 25-1 Coral 1/4 odds 1st 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 27, 2009 Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Curragh 3.40 Pretty Polly Stakes Only two 3 year olds in the race that could be open to any amount of improvement and quite a shock to see the Aidan O Brien horse at 25-1, that looks big considering the stables domination of Group races and also with the race being over in Ireland. Jakarta Jazz and Beach Bunny don't look good enough on what they have achieved so far although the trainer of Jakarta Jazz has won this race twice previously. Katiyra has raced in three Group 1 races and was well beaten in two of them, both on good ground. It's hard to know if it was the ground or class that caught up with the horse or both. It was 3rd in a French Group 1, beaten 3l but on good to soft ground. Look Here ran a fine race over 12f when finishing just behind Ask and Youmzain but 10f looks on the quick side considering the pedigree and the fact it was 3rd in the St Leger last year to Conduit. Dropping back in trip may be a mistake and most previous winners had been running over 10f before taking this race. A stat in its favour is the last 4 winners were favourites and this is likely favourite today. Lush Lashes has some top class form but has been disappointing this season. It had the excuse of heavy ground two runs ago but just seemed to run flat last time out and there were no obvious excuses for such a poor performance. Previous multiple Group 1 winner yet still out at 7-1 in the betting and that doesn't inspire confidence. Dar Re Mi has only had the 1 run this season when finishing 2nd to Crystal Capella at York in a thrilling finish, showing a great attitude and battling all the way to the line over 10f. It has placed group 1 form to Lush Lashes and Zarkava but both those races were over 12f. It looked fit in the paddock at York and was well supported and there is no shame about losing to the progressive Crystal Capella that has 6 wins on the bounce. I have doubts about the trip for Look Here and doubts about the ground for Katiyra and have had Dar Re Mi as one to follow since that day at York and have been eagerly awaiting its next run. John Gosden has been out of form but he still had a Group 2 winner in Bronze Cannon recently and Rainbow View put in a better and more encouraging performance. Jimmy Fortune replaces Frankie Dettori from last time and has ridden the horse 4 times with one victory but early in its career. The obvious problem with the race is the lack of front runners to set an early pace, every horse in the race either likes to race prominently and track the leaders or is held up in midfield, a tactical nightmare but could possibly play into the hands of the speed horses if it turns into a sprint. Suggested Bets: 10pts WIN Dar Re Mi 4-1 Stan James 2.5pts EW Roman Empress 25-1 Coral 1/4 odds 1st 2 Took 10/3 for Dar Re Mi with Hills, and with their bog got paid out 9/2. Great shout :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 27, 2009 Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Nice winner Phil mate!! Was hoping for the fav to get me some points in the 10 to follow but now i've seen this i feel better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted June 27, 2009 Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Nice work Phil mate. That's the Amir Khan ticket paid for ;). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 27, 2009 Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Great write up mate & deserved winner. Did develop into a tactical race and one of the outsiders ran a big race but Dar Re Mi was always doing enough & just pulled a bit more to take this valuable prize. Nice to see you back on track;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 27, 2009 Author Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Thanks for the comments. :ok I haven't seen the race yet but will try catch it on Racing Post later. I was out shopping and bumped into Fintron and his Mrs. I put the bet up this morning but did not place it as it was drifting. I had lost track of time and when I bumped into Fintron and mentioned it I looked at my watch to find it was about 3.35pm. Logged into Bet365 mobile and backed it and the O Brien horse and surprisingly got 4's for Dar Re Mi, checked after the race to find it had won and both me and Fintron had backed it so both happy with the result. I was throwing out some old paperwork and came across my flat and jumps horses to follow lists from about 2 years ago. I realised I have been lazy not to make one this season and just memorised horses but keep missing winners such as Art Connoisseur which I tipped up at the beginning of the season. In a way I'm glad I've had a few losers on the thread as it has motivated me to get a list sorted and stick to backing certain horses, the first being Dar Re Mi today. Spent hours until about 2am the other day/night sorting out a list to follow and going through form from the York Dante meeting, Epsom and Royal Ascot. Spent a long time last night going through this Pretty Polly Stakes and I think it showed in the write up. I put a lot more effort into the whole study and preview and thankfully it paid off, I'd have probably missed the lack of front runners had I rushed through it. For anyone that has seen the race, how did Look Here and Lush Lashes run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 28, 2009 Author Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 10pts EW Baliyana - LOST -20pts 5pts EW Popmurphy - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Sabotage - LOST -10pts 2.5pts EW Roman Empress - LOST -5pts 10pts WIN Dar Re Mi (4-1) - WON - 50pts return (+40pts) Will update totals after todays Irish Derby. :ok Curragh 4.20 1m4f Group 1 Yielding Fame and Glory starts as favourite and its easy to see why - 4 wins in a row followed by a 2nd in the Derby to Sea The Stars and trained by Aidan O Brien who has won this race 5 times in 10 years, including the last 3 years although when he has half the field in a race he should be winning these races. It is by no means a one horse race though so taking evens about the horse is not for me. Byzantine won a maiden and then finished last on both its next two starts, it's 500-1 and a no hoper, more chance of Elvis turning up at the Curragh riding Shergar than this winning. Loch Long is also 500-1, still a maiden and has failed to win races worth around 8k so far and looks outclassed and without hope in this race. Rockhampton is possibly O Briens 4th string, has won two lesser contests, both as favourite but looks outclassed in Group 1 company. May get a place and surprise a few. Drumbeat has not won for the last 8 races but has some form in Group races, the best being a 1/2 length second to Fame and Glory at Saint Cloud but it has been a well beaten 8th and 6th on its last 2 starts and looks exposed at this level. The Bull Hayes is a 50-1 shot and does not look like a possible Group 1 winner. It has been well beaten by Rockhampton, Sea The Stars and Masterofthehorse and there is no reason it would reverse form today. Recharge was beaten easily in the Irish 2000 Guineas and has only raced over 8f but there is not a lot of stamina from the sire Cape Cross (8.5f) and no reason to believe it will get a 1m4f trip in a Group 1 race, unfancied today. Golden Sword is yet another O Brien runner and it was 5th in the Derby but lost a few places in the final furlong. It has beaten Masterofthehorse over 12f by 2 lengths yet this one is 12-1 and Masterofthehorse is coser to 3-1. It was only 4th in a Group 2 and does not look like the stables main hope. Mourayan has been beaten by Fame and Glory twice already and has not run since finishing 2nd behind it by 5 lengths in a Derby trial at Leopardstown. Hard to see that reversing form even if it runs better than last time out. John Oxx's first choice now that Sea The Stars doesn't run and now tried with 1st time blinkers. Masterofthehorse looks to be the O Brien 2nd string and was 3rd in the Derby, only beaten 2l and only a neck behind Fame and Glory. It definitely gets the trip and could go close today. Has been beaten by Gan Amhras but that was over 8f on its debut. Interesting runner and possible winner. Gan Amhras has only raced once over 12f and was beaten over 18 lengths but did not act at Epsom and I feel that run has to be ignored. There is plenty of stamina in the pedigree and 12f should not be a problem. It was beaten 4l by Mourayan on its debut, then beat Masterofthehorse by 3l next time out. It was then 2nd in the Goffs Million, beating both Drumbeat and The Bull Hayes that both run in this race. It was 3rd in the 2000 Guineas but looked to be running on again at the end of the race and likely to benefit from a step up in trip on a track different to Epsom. There should be no shortage of pace in this race with O Brien adopting his multiple runners tactics. I can see the finish involving one or two of his horses but feel you can not write off Gan Amhras based on its run at Epsom when it just did not act on the track at all yet still looks progressive enough to warrant another chance. Mourayan has been kept fresh since the Derby trial and while it needs to improve to reverse a 5l beating from Fame and Glory at 10-1 it looks to have each way possibilities and has an air of consistency, not being out of the first 3 since its debut run. Sportingbet are a stand out 11-1 for Gan Amhras while other bookies go 8-1/9-1. Mourayan is 10-1 with the same firm but also with Stan James who go 1/4 odds rather than 1/5 odds. I'm not fully convinced by Masterofthehorse despite the pleasing run in the Derby and feel that at the prices available Mourayan and Gan Amhras are the value bets and Gan Amhras is one I see as a definite Group 1 winner at some point, possibly today. Suggested Bets: 10pts EW Gan Amhras 11-1 Sporting Bet 1/5 odds 1st 3 5pts EW Mourayan 10-1 Stan James 1/4 odds 1st 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 3, 2009 Author Share Posted July 3, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 2.5pts EW Here Now And Why - LOST -5pts 2.5pts EW Nosedive - LOST -5pts 2.5pts EW Kingdom Of Light - LOST -5pts 5pts EW July Jasmine - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Flame Of Gibraltar 14/1 - PLACED, 22.50pts return (+12.50pts) 10pts WIN Geordieland - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Monitor Closely 7/1 - PLACED, 13.75pts return (+3.75pts) 5pts EW Four Winds - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Veracity - LOST -10pts 10pts EW Baliyana - LOST -20pts 5pts EW Popmurphy - LOST -10pts 5pts EW Sabotage - LOST -10pts 2.5pts EW Roman Empress - LOST -5pts 10pts WIN Dar Re Mi (4-1) - WON - 50pts return (+40pts) 10pts EW Gan Amhras - LOST -20pts 5pts EW Mourayan 10-1 (1/4 place), placed, 17.50pts return, (+7.50pts) New Bank -24.74pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 597pts Selections 66 Winners/Places 13 Losers 53 Strike Rate 19% Profit/Loss -224.74pts :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 18, 2009 Author Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Crime Scene 3.55 Newbury (EW) Won at Newbury on 27th October 2008 off a rating of 107 and that was on soft ground and in a Group 3 race when beating Ivy Creek. It has placed 2nd over 10f on gd-fm early in its career but seems to need cut in the ground these days. Recent poor form has coincided with gd-fm ground and in its last 3 races on gd-fm it was 6th of 6, 11th of 12 and 12th of 12. Its last win was on gd-sft at Nad Al Sheba and it was 1/4 length 2nd there in February on good ground. On good-sft at NAS over 12f it beat Age Of Reason by over 4 lengths, next time out on the same track and over the same distance but on gd-fm saw it beaten 21 length by that same horse. Dettori normally rides but is on the stables 1st choice today which is a short price fav, Ahmed Ajtebi takes the ride on this one. It seems better over 12f than this 10f and is above its career and last time out winning marks but seems over priced due to the stable having 3 selections in this race and this seemingly being 2nd or 3rd string. Effective on its day on softer ground and given a chance today at 16-1. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Crime Scene 18-1 Stan James (1/5 odds 1st 3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Legend. :notworthy:notworthy Fully deserved Mowgli as you always go deep into why you fancy them, a difficult season for you so far but a cracking pick there. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 18, 2009 Author Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Legend. :notworthy:notworthy Fully deserved Mowgli as you always go deep into why you fancy them, a difficult season for you so far but a cracking pick there. :ok Cheers mate, much appreciated. Can't believe it drifted to 25-1, that is an insult to this horse. Made it my super nap too. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Just seen that. :eek Does your P/L a world of good. :ok Betfair SP was 37.5/1! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 18, 2009 Author Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) I changed my Super Nap from 2pts win to 1pt ew before I posted it up. Bloody typical. :wall That would have been a 50pt win for BBOTD. Is that just being greedy? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) I've said it in the Newbury thread - F***ING AMAZING. Well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Brilliant mate, I was on it each way as well E/W at 20s was delighted to see it went in at 25/1 :nana Great tip :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) well done phil, great winner & a great SP also :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Nice one sir :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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