Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[peteg40]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Nice winner there Phil :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Cracking value at 8/1 :nana:nana

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 3.40 Longchamp I really fancy Soldier Of Fortune but one question I keep asking myself is: Should Youmzain really be treble the price of SOF? I think the answer is no. SOF has been kept fresh for this race and only had 2 races this season but was only 5th in this race last year and was aso apparently trained for the Arc then but had run more races by this time last year. Youmzain has close form with SOF having beaten it by 1/2 l and was 2nd to it by 3/4l and was 2nd last year in this race when just failing to get in front of Dylan Thomas. It was also 2nd to Dylan Thomas at Ascot in 2007. I used to think it was not quite good enough at Group 1 level but when you look over form it seems it has come up against some very good horses and not been disgraced. It has a turn of foot and goes on this ground and should not really be double figure odds. The other one I fancy is Ask and I might just be too stubborn by backing this again when it has yet to win a Group 1 race. It has looked poor in its last 2 races but they were both on good to firm and I strongly believe it needs cut in the ground. Ryan Moore chose Ask over Papal Bull last time out and takes the ride on Ask again today so maybe he's seen something in training too. I've not seen any comments from Fallon who rides out for Stoute but would like to know his thoughts on Ask. It was 4th in the 2006 St Leger to Sixties Icon who has found form again recently and Red Rocks went on to win in the Breeders Cup. It beat Scorpion in a Group 3 race and that hose was the 2005 St Leger winner so although it does not have Group 1 form it hasn't just run against mugs. Conditions will suit, I've had it marked as a potential Group 1 winner for years and I'm hoping it repays my faith in it today. It would be nice to see and English/Irish 1-2-3 in Frances top race and could just be possible depending on Zarkava but I'm leaving that alone due to the price and trying to find the value on the 2 mentioned. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Ask 33-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 odds 1st 3 5pts EW Youmzain 14-1 William Hill 1/4 ods 1st 3

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Amanda Carter 10pts staked (unplaced) -10pts Ronaldsay 10pts staked (placed at 13-2) 11.5pts returned +1.5pts Sharp Nephew 10pts staked (unplaced) -10pts Halfway to Heaven 10pts staked (WON) 60pts returned +50pts Ask 10pts staked (unplaced) -10pts Youmzain 10pts staked (placed) 22.5pts returned +12.5pts New Bank 281.25pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 495pts Selections 50 Winners/Places 15 Losers 35 Strike Rate 30% Profit/Loss +81.25pts Yield 16% Felt Youmzain was unlucky in running, might not have beaten Zarkava with a clear run but would have been closer. Ask finished full of running and pleased with that without it being placed. Got Zarkava in my 10 to follow so happy with that.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Kossack 4.10 Leicester (WIN) Many in the field have either been running in maidens or class 4/5 handicaps and not really showed form at this level. Kossack was held up for the first 4 races of its career and has only won once with Jamie Spencer on board also adopting those tactics when winning a maiden over 12f at Ripon on good ground. It was a well fancied 2-5 fav that day and won eased down by 6 lengths. Last time out it was ridden prominently by T.P Queally and managed to finish 3rd in a class 2 handicap (won by Fiulin) over 14f. RP comments after that race were: Quote:

He got to the winners quarters a furlong out, but just lacked a finishing kick and was forced to settle for third. This was still a good effort and perhaps a return to a slightly slower surface will coax further progress.

Totally unproven on soft ground but when 5th on good to soft this happened: Quote:

Kossack, ran better than his bare finishing position suggests in fifth, as he was running on from the back of the field when his rider sat up momentarily inside the final furlong, and he then kept on again.

Out of Sadlers Wells, brother to Milan (St Leger winner) and has a jockey on board that has already won on it, knows what it's capable of and is the master of the hold up tactics if that is the preferred option. Fiulin has been 2nd in a listed race since, strangely enough to a Cumani horse who trains this one too. Spencer often rides for Fanshawe but does not take the ride on his horse in this race. Expect it to be around 5-1. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN 11-2 PaddyPower

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Kossack was rubbish. Final totals in a moment: Kossack - Lost -10pts New Bank 271.25pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 505pts Selections 51 Winners/Places 15 Losers 36 Strike Rate 29% Profit/Loss +71.25pts Yield 14% Have to say I didn't really enjoy this flat season very much, couldn't get into it and not had much cash to bet with. Been to a few race meetings at Ponty and went to the first 3 or so at Doncaster. Will make more of an effort from the beginning of the season next year and already started to pick many jumps horses to follow. Surprised I ended up in profit but a few niced priced winners were just what I needed to get the thread back on track. Will start again next season with a new bank. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) much the same Phil about the flat, well done for making a profit 60,000 views this thread has had, that is some going. :clap Is that you keep looking at it, :lol

[BillyHills]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Good effort Phil, not been easy for a lot of people this season. Nice profit !

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) I'll start this seasons flat thread with a listed race and although most of my bets will be over 1m+ I do like the look of the 7f race at Newmarket tomorrow and have narrowed the field down to two. Starting bank will be 200pts as normal for me and i'll keep a track of winners/places, losers, strike rate, profit/loss and yield. Will try record RUK tomorrow so I can watch the race back to see how they run. Bets will be advised at best possible prices at time of posting. The thread is supposed to be a specialist thread focusing on listed class and above and other bets in daily threads that don't meet this criteria will not be included in totals. Newmarket 3.35 Art Connoisseur looked a real decent type as a 2 yr old and seemed to have a special turn of foot, especially when winning a Group 2 race at Ascot on Good to Firm ground under Jamie Spencer, it was given a shake of the reins and picked up in style in a matter of strides. It then ran a 4 1/2 length second to Mastercraftsman at Curragh over 6f in a Group 1 race and the trainer didn't seem too happy with the performance as it lacked that finishing kick on the day:

The winner has obviously improved a lot, although I don't think our horse quite showed the form he did at Royal Ascot. He hasn't shown the same turn offoot today. We'll take him home and see how he is, his possible targets are the Gimcrack and Prix Morny

It ran poorly in a Group 2 at the end of the season but had cracked a cannon bone which is excusable. It has not won over 7f but the extra furlong should not really be a problem. If the horse returns to the track fully fit and raring to go it has to have every chance despite shouldering top weight in this listed handicap. Jamie Spencer has ridden it every race and is on board again today and he has a 22% strike rate over the last 14 days. The trainer M W Bell also has a 22% strike rate over the last 14 days and has had a couple of placed horses too. It has won here under the jockey and he will have it handily placed for the surge in the last 1-2 furlongs, often races held up but in touch. The other I like the look of in this race is Courageous, it is quite lightly raced and only had 4 races as a 2 yr old and has a formline of 1-5-2-5 but the final 5th was in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, only beaten 8 1/4 l and was hampered towards the final furlong. The trip of 7f should be fine, it's out of Refuse To Bend and the trainer paid 230,000 EUR for it in 2007. After winning its maiden at Redcar the trainer stated:

I've always liked this horse and he'll make a smashing miler next season. The plan was to drop him in as he's been a bit buzzy

Both its maiden race and the RP Trophy race were on good ground so it should be fine regarding ground conditions, will definitely get further this season and was staying on well over 7f at Doncaster when 2nd in a class 3 race before returning there a month later. I think this will be a very good 3 yr old and i'm interested in how it runs in this race. If they go off at a good pace it should suit this horse and Spencers mount, this one has been held up 3 times and tracked the leaders once. It is certainly open to improvement, Brian Smart won this race in 2006 and he currently has an 18% strike rate over the last 14 days and a 24% strike rate overall with a £26.50 profit to a £1 stake. Suggested Bets and odds to follow tomorrow morning as only Paddy Power are currently pricing up this race.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Suggested Bets: 5pts WIN Courageous 5-1 Stan James 5pts WIN Art Connoisseur 8-1 Sporting Bet

[fintron]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Cracking write ups Phil, best of luck for this season, make sure you keep a couple of winners in reserve for Sat ;)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Courageous reportedly returned lame so I am not too concerned about that performance and will keep an eye on it next time it runs, it pulled hard off the slow pace and never settled. The same can be said for Art Connoisseur but that was also trapped for room and was pulling for its head in the first furlong or so. The market spoke in favour of the winner and certainly not in favour of Art Connoisseur drifting from around 5-1 early on out to 10-1 at race time. I'm not sure if it didn't look right in the paddock or going to post but that's a big drift and if it was fit and ready it would never have been allowed to go off at that price despite the burden of top weight in a listed handicap. Thursday 16/04/09 Newmarket 4.10 Twice Over looks like a Group 1 horse in a Group 3 race and deservedly will go off at odds on favourite. The horses it has opposed is a whos who of top class horses including Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Tartan Bearer, Frozen Fire and Centennial and that form looks solid. Even on an off day it should beat this field which includes some which look no more than handicappers. The trainer is in form, has had a few winners including Born Tobouggie at the weekend and has won this race in the past, the horse goes well fresh and will take all the beating. I'm trying to find some value in the race, horses that might place at big prices and be worth taking on Betfair for the place only. I don't think there will be enough rain for Lady Deauville and Virtual and fully expect them to be non runners which will affect all the prices and make this an 8 horse race rather than a 10 horse race. Nomoretaxes looks completely outclassed and is easily passed over. Barshiba has failed to impress on a number of occasions and also when on firmer ground, it is good enough to win a race of this type but is 5 yr old and lacks the potential for improvement that some others have and I don't fancy it for this race. Emerald Wildenress has had a lot of racing and its last 2 races were in all weather handicaps over further than this. Reports suggest it holds its head high and its last 2 races over 8f and 9f have seen it finish 22nd and 5th. It could meet trouble in running if held up as is likely and not fancied today. Bushman has only had 5 races, winning one and placing 2nd in another but the form doesn't look special and it was well behind Lady Deauville on heavy ground. Will probably come on for the run and not fancied at this level, maybe can find an easier listed race somewhere. Tazeez took 3 attempts to win as a maiden and then only contested handicaps. It won over 9f on its last start in a handicap and will probably win at listed level this season but it only beat Steele Tango by a head and is much shorter in the market. Steele Tango ran in 3 all weather maidens, eventually winning the final one over 7f at Kempton. It was a head 2nd to Tazeez in a class 2 handicap but 7l clear of 3rd and was also 2nd here (on the July course) in another class 2 handicap. Probably not good enough to win but place prospects at a decent price. Logic Way has been running in America and has plenty of form in handicaps worth about 15k but it is hard to assess that form or compare it with racing over here. The form from its last 3 races reads 1-7-2 but it won a race worth 54k over 11f, was 7th but not beaten far in a 197k race (Qatar Cup) and was 2nd in a USA Grade 2 race worth 43k. British debut and will be interesting to see how it fares, expected to go off at a decent price and there might be place prospects. Twice Over looks the obvious winner but I'll consider Steele Tango and Logic Way tomorrow when more prices are availabe and I know if the 2 mentioned are non runners as I expect.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) SkyBet are best priced on nearly every horse in this race. Can't see anything beating Twice Over but feel there is value with Skybet on 2 outsiders so: Suggested Bets: 10pts WIN - Twice Over 4-6 2.5pts EW - Steele Tango 33-1 2.5pts EW - Logic Way 40-1 All 3 bets with Skybet

[fintron]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

2.5pts EW - Steele Tango 33-1

great shout, second at an SP of 12/1 with the fav unp and a nice profit from the race for you. :clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Courageous - LOST - (-5pts) Art Connoisseur - LOST - (-5pts) Twice Over - LOST - (-10pts) Logic Way - LOST - (-5pts) Steele Tango 2.5pts EW 33/1 - Placed 2nd, 19pts return (+14pts) Still not seen the 4.10 yet but was regretting including the fav, especially when there were 2 more non runners although there is nothing anywhere about a rule 4 and I think those non runners later on were all over double figures. The fav drifted before the off and Tazeez came in for support, just goes to show we don't really know how a horse has progressed from 1 year to the next and backing odds on when a horse makes its seasonal debut is risky. I was going to leave the fav alone altogether and now know why, won't make that mistake again. New Bank 189pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 30ptspts Selections 5 Winners/Places 1 Losers 4 Strike Rate 20% Profit/Loss -11pts

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Friday 17th April Palavicini 3.15 Newbury I'm willing to oppose Father Time as it has only raced once in a maiden and the stable have had 2 odds on shots beaten in two days. Your Old Pal has also onyl had 1 race and that was a maiden on soft ground so very different conditions and not sure how it will act on good ground. Four Winds looks to be the danger, was 3rd to Delegator on its debut, won its next maiden race(impressively) and was 3rd in a Group 3 but when 3rd to Delegator was also 1 place behind Palavicini. Stable for Four Winds (M Bell) are 0 from 8 in last 14 days and Art Connoisseur took a massive drift from about 5-1 to 10-1. Palavicini is the one to beat for me, only 1l 2nd to Delegator (form boosted 16/04/09), it was then 3rd at odds on in a conditions race but didn't settle early on and wasn't suited by the pace of the race. Went off an odds on favourite here on its last start and won readily over 8f despite the jockey saying he got to the front too soon and the ground was softer than ideal. Has the pedigree to suggest the trip will be fine, has stayed on at end of races rather than weakened and I can see this running a big race. The other 3 runners look outclassed so it's a 7 runner race statistically but only 4 look to have any chance and at 1/4 odds the place I can see Palavicini winning. I am going to play safe and go each way despite the odds only being 7-2, slight loss if it's 2nd, profit if it wins. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Palavicini 6-1 Paddy Power Edit: did not think i'd get to a PC before race for best odds but PP are offering 6's so taken that each way.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Palavicini unplaced yesterday and possibly due to ground becoming soft. Today: Newbury 2.05 I whittled the field down to 4 and the 4 are the first 4 in the betting. I don't think the fav is that far clear of the rest to represent such a short price and feel there is no value under 2's on that one. It will possibly front run and be taken on by Centennial, the latter used these tactics well at Goodwood but they might set the race up for Scintillo, a horse in form, albeit on all weather surfaces but the blinkers are left off, the horse and jockey are in form and hard to oppose at the price. I like progressive horses, Tastahil fits the bill and Hills horses can't be ignored in current form, possibly needs slight improvement but capable of doing so. I've dutched these 3 horses. Suggested Bets: 6pts WIN Centennial 9-2 6pts WIN Tastahil 9-2 3pts WIN Scintillo 10-1 All odds are BlueSquare

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Palavicini - Lost (-10pts) Centennial - Lost (-6pts) Tastahil - Lost (-6pts) Scintillo - Lost (-3pts) Managed to get 2nd and 3rd but advised and backed both to win so loss for the thread. New totals: New Bank 164pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 55pts Selections 9 Winners/Places 1 Losers 8 Strike Rate 12.5% Profit/Loss -36pts On to tomorrow and one I fancy for Epsom: Ouster 3.40 Epsom This horse is mentioned on one of the RP blogs as the trainers Derby candidate and I like the look of its chances here today IF it gets a strong pace to quicken off. It opened at 100-1 on its debut, clearly not fancied but dwelt and was never in the race and was running on soft ground. It then ran a few weeks later at Salisbury and the in running comments are favourable:

Broke well, took keen hold, restrained in last pair after 2f, smooth headway over 2f out, shaken up to lead entering final furlong, quickened clear, easily (op 9-2)

I really like the "smooth headway" comments with horses over these type of trips, horses that travel well and find another gear when asked to go and win the race. The RP analysis also comments that the horse "quickened" and the good ground could have helped and the same conditions are expected tomorrow. That was only a maiden race over 1m but the 2nd went out and won to frank the form. Its final start was good to soft but it never settled and was unsuited by the pace, it stepped up to 1m2f and was only 1l second despite these issues. I can see Dettori or another one setting the pace tomorrow and that would set the race up for this horse nicely, it will have no probems with trip or ground (if it stays good or good to soft) and although the trainer is 0-13 for the last 14 days he has had some placed horses. I think the biggest dangers are Mustaqer and Popmurphy tomorrow. I'll update prices for tomorrows race when they are available but will take the 100-1 on offer now for the Derby, if it wins tomorrow and shows it acts on the course that will drop significantly. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Ouster to win The Derby 100-1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1st 3)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Todays Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Ouster 3.40 Epsom 11-2 Coral (1/4 odds 1st 2)

[bowles10]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) I watched the race Phil with an interest in how Ouster performed as i had raead it was potentially a horse to follow if it had settled down a bit. It seemed ot be ok during the race but never actually improved position at any time. I noted the jock was just waving the whip at it wihtout any pressure on it so perhaps it may come on for the race. The 2nd in the race (Midday) seemed to have an easy time also.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT)

I watched the race Phil with an interest in how Ouster performed as i had raead it was potentially a horse to follow if it had settled down a bit. It seemed ot be ok during the race but never actually improved position at any time. I noted the jock was just waving the whip at it wihtout any pressure on it so perhaps it may come on for the race. The 2nd in the race (Midday) seemed to have an easy time also.

I only saw the last few furlongs in the RPTV highlights, seemed one paced but as you say never really given a hard time, I think it heads to the dante and then the derby and will back it again. The horse in 3rd seemed to be picking up quite well (popmurphy) but not enough to trouble the front 2. Saturday 25th April Sandown 3.45 The 2 I'm interested in here are Lovelace and Virtual. Lovelace needed to shed a few pounds last race according to the trainers wife and I've noticed that Johnstones horses are coming on a lot for their first run. I was at Donny last week and the stable had 2 winners, both having their 2nd races of the season. It is a course and distance winner although that was a 62k handicap but it has won a German Group 2 race also. A few 5 year olds have won this race in the last 10 years and the trainer was successful here in 2003. It might not be the best in the race but it is worth a chance at the price available. Virtual looks a fine, progressive sort but the ground is my concern, it was a non runner recently when the ground was deemed too fast but it is good-firm today and its last 3 wins were all on softened ground and it is making its seasonal debut. Fortune has been on board a few times and won on the horse, trainer is in good form (9 winners in last 14 days) and if it runs it is worth backing. Paco Boy is the one they have to beat, first race here this season although fit from a run at NAS a month ago but too short in the betting for me. 10pts split for me as follows: Suggested Bets: 7pts WIN Virtual 3-1 SkyBet 3pts WIN Lovelace 12-1 Coral Sandown 4.15 I'm going for a horse that is fit, in form and ran well last time at a big price and that is Steele Tango, it is up against better horses but better horses that have to prove their fitness and for Tartan Bearer is dropping back in trip. Pipedreamer has a Group 2 win and is also a big danger. Steele Tango has decent form at this level with Tazeez, has finished behind it on the last 2 runs but last time out ran over 9f and the extra furlong today should suit as it seemed to get a second wind after running a bit flat and was running on well at the end of the race to suggest 10f might be better suited. It is only 4 year old and seems to have come on from last year when it only ran in handicaps. It has to improve again and is up against it with the first 2 in the betting but there are 8 runners paying 3 places and only 3 favs have won it in the last 10 yrs. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Steele Tango 16-1 Stan James (1/5 odds first 3)

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 5pts EW Ouster - LOST - (-10pts) 5pts EW Steele Tango - LOST (-10pts) 7pts WIN Virtual - LOST - (-7pts) 3pts WIN Lovelace - LOST (-3pts) New Bank 134pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Staked 85pts Selections 13 Winners/Places 1 Losers 12 Strike Rate 8% Profit/Loss -66pts

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 2000 Guineas The front 3 in the betting look like the best 3 in the race but are all short enough in the betting and only 1 favourite won this race in the last 10 years but O Brien has 2 of the makret leaders and has a great record in the race. From a value perspective there are 3 I'm interested in: Cityscape - 2nd on seasonal debut on soft ground, trainer says it was beaten by an in form rival and was happy with the run, also expects 1m to suit better, needs to prove itself on good to firm but won well on good ground. Has won over the trip and sire (Selkirk) won here on good to firm:

October 1992, Group 2 at Newmarket Held up in rear, headway and switched right over 2f out, quickened to lead over 1f out, soon clear

Lord Shanakill - does not have the unexposed and lightly raced profile of the others but was 2nd by a nose in the Dewhurst and finished in front of Delegator and Rip Van Winkle that day and has 1st, 2nd and 3rds in Group 2 company and was 3rd in a 6f Gp 1. The stamina over 1m is the main concern, sire had a sprint pedigree but big price for proven group performer. Gan Amhras - Bolger was always going to wrap this in cotton wool as a 2yr old and we could see the best of it this season:

I see him as a horse for next season and I might be more careful than I normally am with him this year. But you never know with two year olds and we will wait and see how he does over the coming weeks - Jim Bolger

Won an ordinary maiden but then finished 2nd in the Goffs Million with Intense Focus behind in 3rd and that went on to win the Dewhurst, beating some of todays field as described above. Has won over 1m and on good to firm and probably an insult that it is double figures. Suggested Bets: 10pts EW Gan Amhras 12-1 Bet365 BOG 1/4 odds 1st 3 5pts EW Cityscape 16-1 Stan James 1/4 odds 1st 3 2.5pts EW Lord Shanakill 20-1 Tote 1/4 odds 1st 3

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Casual Conquest 2.30 Newmarket 5 runner race and only 2 that can be backed with real confidence. All The Aces best form is a 2nd in a Gp3 with wins in maiden and handicap company. Bronze Cannon has 3 handicap wins but was beaten in listed, Gp3 and Gp2 races and has been on all weather last 3 races. Drill Sergeant is exposed, 21 races and only 2 wins which were in maiden and handicap company. That leaves us with Spanish Moon and Casual Conquest. Spanish Moon is quite consistent and last 4 races reads 2-1-2-1. It was 2nd in the Sheema Classic by a nose and so far has only won at listed level but looks sure to improve this season as many of Stoute's older horses often do. It's proven bare form so far only indicates it is a listed/Gp3 horse but there is definite potential for it to be better than that and Purple Moon, Youmzain, Kirklees and Red Rocks were all behind it last time out. Casual Conquest looks to have the better form and is lightly raced and unexposed. It won its first 2 races at Leopardstown going straight from maiden winner to Gp 2 winner when winning the Derrinstown Derby trial by 6 lengths and stepping up from 7f on its debut to 10f on its 2nd outing. It was 3rd in the Derby, Tartan Bearer in 2nd won recently and was 3rd in the Irish Derby last year. Frozen Fire was 11th in the Derby but won the Irish equivalent. New Approach won the Irish Champion Stakes and the Emirates Airline race at Newmarket giving the form of Casual Conquest a very strong top class look about it. It goes well fresh and should be too good for this field and won its debut on gd-fm. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN Casual Conquest 6-4 PaddyPower

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Already placed ante post: 5pts EW Ouster 100-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1st 3 Todays suggested ante post bet: 5pts EW Gan Amhras to win the Derby 16-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1st 3 I think the pedigree suggests it is a derby horse and the trainer has commented on the same, if it runs well today it will drop in price and I am fully expecting a decent performance today, 16-1 could look huge by the end of the day.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Just watched todays races back and quite pleased with the run from Casual Conquest on ground that it obviously did not like. Channel 4 commentators picked up on the leg action and for once they had a very good camera angle that highlighted the difference of how Bronze Cannon and Casual Conquest were travelling and the "shouldery action" of the latter. The race was ruined by Spanish Moon playing up and being withdrawn and resulted in a 3 horse race. On softer ground than good to firm and with a stronger pace Casual Conquest will be up there with the best and I will back it again in future. Sea The Stars won well and looks like a grand horse that will just keep improving this season, when they started making comparisons to Azamour on The Morning Line when speaking to the head lad I was considering backing it as that was one of my favourite ever horses along with Falbrav and Ouija Board. It could win over 1m2f and 1m4f and has a bright future ahead of it. I was happy with the run of Gan Amhras, if you see the race again notice near the finish there is a gap between Delegator and Evasive that gets shut off, it had to switch right and might have been closer without winning but has the pedigree for further so I'm happy with the ante post Derby bet and it is now 8's for that race. Murtagh finished well on Rip Van Winkle from the low draw and looks like he chose the right horse, that might go on to better things. 10pts WIN Casual Conquest - LOST - (-10pts) 10pts EW Gan Amhras - PLACED - (40pts return, +20pts) 5pts EW Cityscape - LOST - (-10pts) 2.5pts EW Lord Shanakill - LOST - (-5pts) Totals to be updated after tomorrows bets. :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) 3rd May 2009 - Bets to follow in the morning but initial thoughts for value prices: 2.00 Newmarket Storyland Course and distance winner, goes well for jockey, progressive, 2 wins at class 3 level, won on gd-fm ground and was hampered, no run on bend at Lingfield last time out, 2-2 over the trip, 2-2 in May, 3wins and a 3^rd from 4 races.

Resplendent Light Faded lto over further, ran on very soft ground race before that, best form is on gd-fm, 2 wins and a 3^rd from 4 races. Jockey won on this horse over this trip, 15% SR, +£18.00 last 14 days.

2.35 Newmarket - Casilda Small stakes win, goes well over the trip and on the ground (2 from 3) and 1-1 in May. Not in class of Heaven Sent but this is fit whereas Stoutes horse might need a run. Lowest rating but could be a muddling race/pace with only 5 runners.

3.15 Newmarket Shimah 2 wins and a 2^nd in a Gp1 race, 1/2l loss but winner drifted and carried it right, could have Gp1 success on record if not for that, won on firm on debut, lightly raced, unexposed and likely to improve, big price.

Pursuit of Glory Small stakes for this one, 3^rd here on gd-fm, didn’t take the dip too well but ran on well afterwards over 6f, should get 1m, Cheveley Park has been a decent race previously (Natagora) and this horse was only 1/2l and ¾ l 3^rd in that Gp1 so 40’s looks big.

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Storyland 9-1 William Hill 1/4 odds 1st 3 5pts EW Resplendent Light 18-1 William Hill 1/4 odds st 3 2pts WIN Casilda 25-1 Ladbrokes 5pts EW Shimah 16-1 Bet365 BOG 1/4 odds 1st 3 2.5pts EW Pursuit of Glory 40-1 Bet365 BOG 1/4 odds 1st 3

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Friday 8th May All The Aces 2.45 Chester This race has gone to 4 yr olds six times in the last 10 years and this horse fits that trend. It has finished a 1/2 length second to Dr Fremantle at this course and was looking like a potential St Leger horse before getting injured. Frozen Fire will be hard to beat but has put in 2 poor performances in the Derby and Leger and can't be fully trusted at short odds. The Hills horse looks outclassed but you can't ignore the stable form. All The Aces has shown battling qualities and a good attitude at Lingfield and won over 12f when staying on well at Leicester and staying on. The 2nd here was on good to firm and fitness is taken on trust as it has not run for 322 days but looks a potential top class stayer and is worth taking against the favourite. Suggested Bet: 10pts EW 13-2 PaddyPower 1/5 1/2/3

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Laa Rayb 6.50 Windsor Had a look at this race and picked this one out on form and due to it being a Johnstone horse having its 2nd run this season. When i was at Doncaster he had 2 winners, both were on their 2nd runs of the season if I remember rightly. He is normally good first time out but this season they seem to be really coming on for a run and he has not gone over the top with them for their seasonal debuts. It would be interesting to find trainer stats to see if this is correct. Laa Rayb seems to tick all the right boxes, it has won over this trip and has 2 wins on good to firm, one of them in a 7f handicap when beating the part PL owned Dhaular Dhar. Jockey has a decent record on the horse, 5 races, 1 win-1 second-2 thirds. Trainer has had 12 winners in the last 14 days (from 53 horses) and has a 23% strike rate. Although the horse has not won at class 1 level it has some good Group placed form. Also interesting that it meets the trends in JTW1's thread. Trainer is hard to ignore when in form and I can see this beating Ordnance Row, the obvious danger. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN Laa Rayb

[mowgli77]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread (FLAT) Will update thread totals after this weeks York meeting. Going to take an ante post punt on Enticement for the Oaks, has won at listed level and that form is holding up well, one of the horses from that race was 3rd in the 1000 guineas and the other (Midday) won a Lingfield trial at the weekened. Stoute has a good record at York and I fully expect it to win tomorrow and get cut for the Oaks to about 5-1 if it is convincing. Currently 10-1 and I really respect Stoutes horses in the classics and think he could have a very good one here. Suggested Ante Post Bet: 5pts EW Enticement 10-1 Bet365 1/4 odds 1st 3