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Grand National Discussion Thread 2007

Aykay1

By Aykay1
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Aykay1

Aykay1

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What is it now? 2 weeks to go? Here's some trends i've picked up from various websites and forums that should help. I've put the relevance of each stat in red afterwards. -------------------------------------------------------------------- In the last 66 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National.The National arguably the toughest race in the racing calendar and a horse will need to be "savvy" to perform well in it. Horses younger than 8 dont usually have enough racing experience and struggle as a result. As a rule of thumb, younger horses tend to have more speed than stamina and dont last the distance. In the last 83 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National. Horses older than 12 are usually past their peak and in handicap terms are less exposed than some of the younger horses who may still have improvement in them. Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by Red Rum! The Grand National is a long stamina sapping race which is difficult to haul a big weight round. Those carrying less than 11 stone have historically performed better. Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who hadn't previously won over at least three miles.Stamina is an absolute must to perform well in the National and a winning horse needs to see out the 4m 4f marathon distance. Any horses that hasnt proved its stamina over a minimum of 3m have evidently struggled. Every winner in the last ten years had won a race worth at least £17,000. Whilst the Grand National isnt the best quality race in the world, a horse does need a certain amount of class to win it. Bad horses dont win the race. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Each of the last ten Grand National winners had run at least ten times over fences before the start on the big day at Aintree. This ties in with the age trend. Experience is important in a race as tough and demanding as this one.

None of the last 10 winners had finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous Grand National Amberleigh House had been 3rd and Brought Down previously, whilst 2 others had previously fallen. If a horse has failed to perform in the National previously, he is unlikely to in the future, unless he has shown significant improvement. 9 of the last 10 winners had managed at least a placing in one of last 3 races. Stick to this trend and you will avoid out of form horses. Lord Gyllene was the exception from the last 10 years. Theres also a trend which says something along the lines of "a French bred horse hasnt won the race for 90 years" If anyone has this could they post it up please as I cant find it anywhere - Cheers :ok The thinking behind this one is that French horses arent bred for stamina because there arent many long distance races in France, where the onus is on speed. If a horse has stamina doubts and is French bred then its best to avoid it. Be careful with this one though as I believe Royal Auclair and Clan Royal are both French Bred and they have gone close in recent years.
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Carl

Carl

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread yep nice stats AK, bit busy at the mo but Ill give you my top 10 now and a little more reasoning after. Point Barrow (IRE) 9 10-12 P Hughes Mckelvey (IRE) 8 10-4 P Bowen Take The Stand (IRE) 11 10-12 P Bowen The Outlier (IRE) 9 10-5 Miss Venetia Williams Simon 8 10-11 J L earing Philson Run (IRE) 11 10-5 Nick Williams Dun Doire (IRE) 8 10-8 A J Martin Ossmoses (IRE) 10 10-5 D M Forster Bothar Na (IRE) 8 10-6 W P Mullins Homer Wells (IRE) 9 10-6 W P Mullins 2 interestingly enough run a week before the big day so its worth keeping an eye on those. Market mover Point Barrow is worth considering as the market moved the same way last year for Numbersixvalde.

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Aykay1

Aykay1

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread These are the ones i'm green on betfair at the moment: MCKELVEY - He will definitely get in now. He has course form, has distance form, he is in form, beating some good horses over hurdles last week, he is a good jumper, appears to have been trained for this race all season, has a superb racing weight of 10stone 4 and even though his price has shortened this week, still rates the best value in the race at 38.0. Lots and lots in his favour and looking at some of the horses trading at half his price is baffling. NUMBERSIXVALVERDE - last years winner gets in off a great racing weight of 11 stone 3lbs. Would this extra burden have stopped him from winning last year? I personally dont think so and his preparation this season has gone like clockwork. Looks nailed on to run a big race. KELAMI - French breds dont stay? This one does! Classy type with form at very high levels over extreme distances. Goes on any going, good jumper, Stable buoyant and despite a no-show at Cheltenham, returned to form in a hurdle prep race in france last time out. 10 stone 11lbs is ideal. ROYAL AUCLAIR - Outstanding effort 2 years ago to finish 2nd to Hedgehunter off top weight. Races off 9 lb's lower this year as he slipped down the ratings as a result of a very average season last year. Signs this year that he is returning to something like his old form, which would give him a huge chance if he finds it. Paul Nicholls is openly buoyant about the weight he has been alloted and should run a big race. Im also green on PHILSON RUN, but I cant remember why I backed it now :lol Not without a chance though with endless stamina to call on. Not sure if he's classy enough though. I had LORD OF ILLUSION at a silly price (180/1 i think :eek) unfortunately he's been pulled out. Others I considered are IDLE TALK but I had doubts about his jumping - unseated last twice. LONGSHANKS - Not convinced this one is classy enough, a bit too lighly raced for my liking too JOES EDGE - Appeared to peak when winning at Cheltenham. Will do well to follow up with another peak performance here. I agree with Carl that POINT BARROW has a massive chance but is a touch too short for me. SILVER BIRCH keeps catching my eye as well and I might have a saver on him although he had a tough race at Cheltenham too and would prefer soft ground, which he is highly unlikely to get. One that has seen bundles of money this week is OSSMOSES. If the ground was soft, this would be my main bet but ive just checked the forecast for the next 10 days for Liverpool and there is no sign of rain between now and then, which brings us to 3 days before the big race. Its shame as I like this horse and there wouldnt be many more worthy winners. Still, weather forecasters can be wrong cant they!

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Carl

Carl

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Of thoses you've mentioned Ak heres my notes, Mckelvey (IRE) 8 10-4 P Bowen Has won over 4miles before, won't want it too soft. Point Barrow (IRE) 9 10-12 P Hughes Reported to be in top shape and his hurdle run at Navan 24/03 has clearly gone down well Philson Run (IRE) 11 10-5 Nick Williams Has won over 4mile on Sft and Hvy. He's as gutsy as hell when it matters. He’ll be trained for the 2007 Grand National.Trainer. Ossmoses (IRE) 10 10-5 D M Forster He's not the fastest of my half-a-dozen horses, but he’s certainly the toughest. - Don Forster; This is a proper national hunt horse, who loves this testing ground. Has won at 3m4f on Hvy. Mckelvey keeps looking at me.

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Aykay1

Aykay1

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Nice, thanks Jockprop thats a good read and does the hard work for us as far as the trends are concerned :ok Point Barrow certainly seems to be the trends pick. Werdnatrebor, my picks weren't based on the trends, just fancies I have. McKelvey seems to fit most of them, the other 3 less so. Read the link that Jockprop put up :ok

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arsenalpunter

arsenalpunter

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Aintree still on agenda for Longshanks despite scare Apr 3 2007 by Chris Wright, Liverpool Daily Post JOHN Smith’s Grand National hope Longshanks has suffered a slight injury scare, but trainer Kim Bailey doesn’t think it will jeopardise his Aintree participation. With less than two weeks to go to the 4m4f marathon, Bailey’s10-year-old stood on a stone and suffered bruising to his off-fore. The Gloucestershire handler reported the injury on his website, www.kimbaileyracing.com, on Sunday and sent the horse to a local Equine Health Spa in Inglesham for some swimming sessions to alleviate the problem. While the posting went on his site on April 1 and Bailey also referred to April Fool’s Day pranks, the trainer confirmed to the Daily Post yesterday afternoon that the horse was lame. But he is convinced it will not stop Longshanks from lining up at Aintree on April 14. The Alan Halsall-owned gelding is a general 25-1 shot with most bookmakers for the National and despite having missed the cut for the Aintree marathon for the past two years, Bailey is not overly concerned about the setback. He said: “It was unfortunate and also just happened to be on April Fool’s Day. He was lame, and has been swimming, but we don’t envisage it as a problem. “He did his work on Saturday after also working last week at Stratford. But he came back in and had a bruised foot. We took the shoe off and he went swimming yesterday. He has been swimming again this morning and is very sound. “I’ve just spoken to the blacksmith and he reckoned he will have a shoe on by Wednesday night and will be back to normal. “It is one those annoying things that happen, but I don’t think it will be a problem. Hopefully everything will be fine.” Another horse heading for Aintree is 2005 hero Hedgehunter, who was reported to be good shape following his run over hurdles at Limerick on Sunday. The 11-year-old, who was also runner-up in the National 12 months ago, will slowly build up his preparation for another crack at the big race. Hedgehunter was ninth in the UL Bohemians Raceday Hurdle on Sunday – only his second run of the season following a knee problem. Mullins is now hopeful all will be well for Hedgehunter, who is a best-priced 16-1 with Ladbrokes and SportingOdds for more Aintree glory. The Co. Carlow handler said: “He trotted up sound this morning, ate up when he got home last night, and he seems fine. We were happy enough with the way he ran, it was the only race for him that week. He’ll be back out working again on Tuesday.” Meanwhile Ferdy Murphy reported his Grand National hope Joes Edge to be in fine form. The West Witton trainer is hoping his 10-year-old gets to take his chance in the National, following his win in the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham. Murphy is also eyeing the £250,000 bonus put up by sponsors BetFred for any horse who wins the National and then the BetFred Gold Cup at Sandown on April 28. 2005 Scottish National hero Joes Edge, a general 16-1 chance with most firms for the National, was seventh behind Numbersix-valverde 12 months ago. Murphy said: “I’ll be looking at the Betfred because of the bonus, but it all depends what happens in the Grand National. “He’s in tremendous form and I’m very happy with him. He’ll be off to the beach at Redcar on Thursday or Friday and it’s just a matter of keeping him ticking over. He’s in good order and it looks like he’ll be my only runner in the Grand National.” Aintree have started to water the track with no rain forecast over the next week ahead of next week’s three-day meeting.

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RussP

RussP

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Dismiss it all you like but I'm sweet on DUN DOIRE. Been aimed at this, and find it difficult to believe it won't be thereabouts off this weight. Will probably drift a bit, so I'll wait until the day before lumping on. Agree that POINT BARROW will be the biggest danger. See you all when I'm back from holiday.

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RussP

RussP

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread

OK im dismissing it :lol wont even make it round if it jumps like it did last time out... Have a nice holiday though :ok
Cheers Nige:ok Good luck with Simon too, hope it places for you mate.
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Carl

Carl

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread

Of thoses you've mentioned Ak heres my notes, Mckelvey (IRE) 8 10-4 P Bowen Has won over 4miles before, won't want it too soft. Point Barrow (IRE) 9 10-12 P Hughes Reported to be in top shape and his hurdle run at Navan 24/03 has clearly gone down well Philson Run (IRE) 11 10-5 Nick Williams Has won over 4mile on Sft and Hvy. He's as gutsy as hell when it matters. He’ll be trained for the 2007 Grand National.Trainer. Ossmoses (IRE) 10 10-5 D M Forster He's not the fastest of my half-a-dozen horses, but he’s certainly the toughest. - Don Forster; This is a proper national hunt horse, who loves this testing ground. Has won at 3m4f on Hvy. Mckelvey keeps looking at me.
Ossmoses = NR
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Carl

Carl

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread If thats the case Ill have those 2 ive mentioned and have a little nibble on Dun Doire also, I think honestly youve got to wait until the final decs are sorted and look for market movements.

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Woodie

Woodie

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread A couple more stats I've found Statistics

  • 13/15 – Aged 9 years-old or older
  • 3/15 – Only 3 favourites have won in the last 15 runnings
  • 5/15 – The Irish have landed a third of recent runnings, but more importantly 5 of the last 8
  • 14/15 – Make sure your selection has under 11 stone with only Hedgehunter (11-1) carrying more than 11 stone to victory in the last 15 runnings
  • 3/15 – Winners won their race before winning the Grand National
  • 12/15 – Finished in the top five in their previous race
  • 2/15 – Amount of times trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race (2002 & 1998)
  • 15/15 – Aged between 8 and 12 years-old
  • 4/15 – Previous run was at the Cheltenham Festival
  • 2/15 – The amount of times Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner (2005 & 2000)
  • 12/15 – Winners returned at double-figure odds

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DJ

DJ

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Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Been thinking of backing Joes Edge recently.... worth the gamble? Want to back them and Dun Doire to win but Joes Edge seems to be pushing the most likely for me right now. Weirdly just did that 'What's your Ride?' thing and it came up with Joes Edge too! :unsure

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