Grand National Discussion Thread 2007

[cavello]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Had a great Punter's book before the race with nearly 8 all much bigger then stating price. Including Monkerhostin(my main bet which I laid off just before the start due to the price reductuion) at 25/1 most with 5 places covered. As the race progressed my book was starting to look progressively more hopeless But if Mckelvey had placed would have just about made a profit. :wall :cry Point Barrow Fell Simon Fell Bewley Berry Fell Monkerhostin refused Eurotrek (I think was hampered and later pulled up) LiAmi did not stay Numbersixvalverde so so Mckelvey 2nd What a disaster. I'm a non-trend man (I do profile types of races) becuase to me it smacks of backfitting data and to me is a lazy approach to form study. N.B For readers of Racing and Football Outlook who follow "By the Numbers" 5 were shortlisted including the winner. I had 3 of the other 5:wall

[DC]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Cavello, McKelvey DID place and I disagree with your "lazy" comments. I put lots of hours in based on trends and I'm sure fellow punters here put many more hours in than that trying to assess this great race.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread yeah I agree Danny I spent many an hour going through all the stats and filters narrowing it down to a point where you can back 8 or so horses and as long as 1 comes in your in profit.

[cavello]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread

Cavello' date=' McKelvey DID place and I disagree with your "lazy" comments. I put lots of hours in based on trends and I'm sure fellow punters here put many more hours in than that trying to assess this great race.[/quote'] I mean won:wall I still think the old fashion approach to form study is better. And come on Bowlles10 quote relating to 10-2 is ridiculous. I asume that one is tongue in cheek.:rollin What is the number of wins at 10.0/10.01/10.03/10.04. With reference to the over 11 stone stat. Could someone here produce a set of linear regression line graphs relating to weight carried price and finishing position to prove this point. Fact is only between 5-8 horses carrry over 11 stone in this race most year compared to in excess of 30 below this level. Remnember when you try to apply trends to a race you are looking at a severely limited set of data. Which by it's very nature is prone to backfitting. But when profiling a type of race you may be looking at thousands of races making patterns discovered more reliable. Not suggesting you are lazy old boy. Just suggesting this is a statistically lazy approach. P.S. Still keep the stats coming I think we all use this data in different ways even if some of us poo poo them. And I got plenty of that on my face today:lol I hope this is viewed as constructive criticism and not just knocking.:ok To paraphase Mussolini's famous quote relating to the state. "All within The Punterslounge, all for The Punterslounge, none against the Punterslounge"

[Carl]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread

P.S. Still keep the stats coming I think we all use this data in different ways even if some of us poo poo them. And I got plenty of that on my face today:lol

2 questions, What are you drinking and where can I buy I from? ;):ok

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread

Ok, based on various trends and things got my 5 shortlist. Will probably have a dabble on them all Bewleys Berry Graphic Approach Silver Birch Dunbrody Millar Parsons Legacy :hope

wicked. first time i've actually won on the national i think :cheers

[LaRoz]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread From my earlier bets had McKelvey 2nd. Not too bad. Just checked my spreadsheet - not happy Silver Birch 7th rated - ruled out becuase it ran at Cheltenham :wall There is always next year!:ok

[Jimany]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread

i saw another stat yesterday which said only 1 horse in 158 runnings had won with 10st 2lb thats 159 now after Joes Edge & le Duc failed today. Silver birch fitted most of the trends apart from the price factor as it was one of the outsiders.

I dont think you can rule out just a specific weight, especially since the weight's lower and higher are more than capable of winning the race. The weight is within the system whereby it can produce a winner, so i dont think it can be applied for next year's Grand National. Merely a coincidence rather than a solid stat that you can use as a method on your system. IMO of course, but i dont see how a lb difference either way can hold such a strong outcome on the race when it's well under the 11st mark.

[happygooner]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread

N1 :clap :clap My mother had the winner, she only picked it because she has a parrot called Silver :lol

My girlfriends mum had it cos it's a tree what can I say....:\ Still, I got a placing on Philson run payed out at 100/1 (bet365 paying out final price even though I backed it at 66/1), which covered the staking of all my other 5 horses, and came within a whisker (half a length actually) of taking £200.00 from Paddypower!! Still, such is life eh haha.... Incidentally, who was it that said never work with children or animals. I was practically having heart failure by the beginning of the race and what possibilities lay ahead when the horses all started turning round walking off at the start line. Thought the race was never going to get going! Of course, when it did the first thing I heard pretty much was, Point Barrow has gone at the first. Had a feeling it was not going to be my day from that moment on haha!

[Carl]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Just been reading through this from last year, hope anyone can use it to compare for this years national. Ak posted some good stats up in the first post which we've all used for this years.

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National Discussion Thread 2007 Shame i've ignored most of them with my picks for this year :lol