BillyHills Posted April 6, 2007 Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Joes Edge needs 9 horses to drop out to get in the race, so you may want to hang on a few days before betting, NR no bet usually from monday with some bookies. My two for the race are Bewleys Berry, laid out for this after finishing second over the national fences, should stay this extra distance and has the perfect temperament for this type of race, around 25/1. Billyvoddan is my second choice, much improved over fences and could turn out to be a real class horse, trainer very shrewd with his horses at the big meetings and expects this to go close, also about 25/1. Both horses like good fast ground which it look likely to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dundee-punter Posted April 6, 2007 Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread I got numbersixvalverde too but my real money is on point barrow for a place at 4.3 (betfair) :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 6, 2007 Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Bet365 have gone non runner no bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Ok, based on various trends and things got my 5 shortlist. Will probably have a dabble on them all Bewleys Berry Graphic Approach Silver Birch Dunbrody Millar Parsons Legacy :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 8, 2007 Author Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Sunday Sunrise 06:31 (BST) Sunset 19:57 (BST)15°C 8°C 10 moderate 1026 52 Monday Sunrise 06:29 (BST) Sunset 19:59 (BST)13°C 10°C 9 moderate 1022 72 Tuesday Sunrise 06:26 (BST) Sunset 20:01 (BST)14°C 7°C 7 moderate 1025 68 Wednesday Sunrise 06:24 (BST) Sunset 20:02 (BST)18°C 5°C 2 moderate 1026 53 Thursday Sunrise 06:22 (BST) Sunset 20:04 (BST)20°C 5°C 6 moderate 1026 46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sand King Posted April 10, 2007 Share Posted April 10, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Firstly i'd like to say i'm a big fan of the National. It's a fantastic spectical, and contrary to popular opinion, in recent times it's become a great betting proposition. The trends show, as highlighted on here very well, that much of the field can be sensibly discounted, leaving a few with genuine chances. Cleearly there is always many ifs and buts with a big handicap such as this, but with joe public lumping on like no other race, then a student of form can get value like in no other race. It seems clear that this year will see good ground, which means that class will prevail, and whilst stamina is obviously key, a touch of class coupled with consistent jumping is a key requirement. After watching his victory on the 14th Jan 2006 at Warwick Eurotrek has been in my notebook as a potential national winner. He has not been treated kindly by the handicapper, however If you can find 20-1 about him then I would suggest that would be reasonable value. At 11 years old you would have to think that it must be this year if he is to win it, he has the class, one can only wait to see if the stamina can hold out under such a weight. Point Barrow clearly has the right profile and ticks most boxes, therefore cannot be ruled out of calculations. The price has become a bit skinny, but any price at double figures may be worth a crack. Of the rest I also like Kelami (Classy french type who promises a big run if fit), Longshanks (Progressive sort open to further improvement, right profile) and Clan Royal (Been there, done it, sure to be thereabouts). :hope Be Lucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam7777 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Ive backed Clan Royal for the last 2 years , and he's just missed out finishing 2nd and 3rd ? and im going to back him this year also . The thing is he's allways been around 9/1 -10/1 But this year he's 25/1 - 28/1 , does anyone have a reason for this ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Hasn't really had the best prep for this national this year. Didn't he fall at the first over the national course in november? McCoy has ridden him the past few years but has chosen to ride L'ami instead this year plus he's now 12 years old I think the price he is represents his chances in the race to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Dun Doire has drifted right out doesn't look like he will run due to the ground.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecitygentuk Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread http://boylesports.net/grandnationalmatch/index.html I got Liberthine. :ok Its a good laugh, I got Dun Doire Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottishBhoy87 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Hey, just wondering what peoples thoughts are on idle talk at 17.00?? got a feeling for this horse just looking for some info?? thanks and good luck to all :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leics poshie Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Backed point barrow @ 16/1 and Clan Royal @ 8 to place, will also go for Simon and Eurotrek, it will be out of them 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Homer Wells = NR :sad Well heres whats left of my picks. Bothar Na (IRE) 8 10-6 W P Mullins "He looks a natural for Aintree and he has the size and scope to be a National horse." Trainer Dun Doire (IRE) 8 10-8 A J Martin Was well fancied last year but didnt make the line up. (the drying conditions is a worry stated the trainer) Philson Run (IRE) 11 10-5 Nick Williams Has won over 4mile on Sft and Hvy. He's as gutsy as hell when it matters. He’ll be trained for the 2007 Grand National.Trainer. Simon 8 10-11 J L earing Has won over 3mile on Sft and Hvy ground,strong stayer. "He’s improving and improving all the time" 'Jockey A Thornton' The Outlier (IRE) 9 10-5 Miss Venetia Williams Due to run on the 9th April in Ireland. Beat Turpin Green LTO by 12 lengths 3mile on Soft. Has won on Hvy ground. Take The Stand (IRE) 11 10-12 P Bowen Not the horse he once was and 7th in the Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap at Uttoxeter, can he bounce back? Mckelvey (IRE) 8 10-4 P Bowen Has won over 4miles before, won't want it too soft. Point Barrow (IRE) 9 10-12 P Hughes Reported to be in top shape and his hurdle run at Navan 24/03 has clearly gone down well The last 2 Im very keen on. The ones in Red are my top 5 and Ill will be backing them with cash! ( 10p e/w) :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread AK are you starting the selection thread tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread I have narrows it down to 2... EUROTREK - Fancied this last year before he was pulled out through injury. Has only raced 11 times in career and trip could be a slight worry. However, he lumbered top weight around these fences in the Becjer Chase and won impressively even though he nearly took the wrong course on the run on. Has got strong claims. 21.00 at Betfair. JOES EDGE finished 7th last year and is coming into this in far better form. Will love the ground and almost certain to get a run now after withdrawals. Can get 11.00 at Betfair and I think this will go off fave on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Posted a while back about liking the look of Joe's Edge... at the time around 20s.... now it's favourite so why didn't I back JE then! :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jones12345 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Just read on the bbc sport website that liberthine the horse me and my mate have backed is in foal.But i know from past history that horses in foal usually run really well. Any thoughts on this greatly appreciated. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Homer Wells = NR :sad Well heres whats left of my picks. Bothar Na (IRE) 8 10-6 W P Mullins "He looks a natural for Aintree and he has the size and scope to be a National horse." Trainer Dun Doire (IRE) 8 10-8 A J Martin Was well fancied last year but didnt make the line up. (the drying conditions is a worry stated the trainer) Philson Run (IRE) 11 10-5 Nick Williams Has won over 4mile on Sft and Hvy. He's as gutsy as hell when it matters. He’ll be trained for the 2007 Grand National.Trainer. Simon 8 10-11 J L earing Has won over 3mile on Sft and Hvy ground,strong stayer. "He’s improving and improving all the time" 'Jockey A Thornton' The Outlier (IRE) 9 10-5 Miss Venetia Williams Due to run on the 9th April in Ireland. Beat Turpin Green LTO by 12 lengths 3mile on Soft. Has won on Hvy ground. Take The Stand (IRE) 11 10-12 P Bowen Not the horse he once was and 7th in the Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap at Uttoxeter, can he bounce back? Mckelvey (IRE) 8 10-4 P Bowen Has won over 4miles before, won't want it too soft. Point Barrow (IRE) 9 10-12 P Hughes Reported to be in top shape and his hurdle run at Navan 24/03 has clearly gone down well The last 2 Im very keen on. The ones in Red are my top 5 and Ill will be backing them with cash! ( 10p e/w) :lol Carl, most of those have doubts on Good or better ground? McKelvey is a big interest & i have heard it mentioned a few times this week. Dont bother with the ew, just back to win mate! some good horses in this race this year, short list of Billyvoddan, mckelvey, Joes edge, parsons legacy, monkerhostin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackg99 Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread here are 6 stats that have given 8 of the last 10 winners from a shortlist of 5 or 6 (1) no horse aged 7 or younger or 13 or older (2) no french breds (3) must not be in the top 5 in the weights (4)no horse carrying 11st 1 or over (5)no horse wearing headgear (6)no horse at 25/1 or higher in the last 5 yrs there have been 5 or 6 qualifiers each year with the winners at 20/1 16/1 16/1 7/1 and 11/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Does anyone know how to do the rain dance as im on simon lol Trainer states the ground shouldnt be a problem and the only reason it has got a name as a mud lover is because thats the only ground its been able to run on.... Even so I would have like the ground a little softer.... Football Tipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Just read on the bbc sport website that liberthine the horse me and my mate have backed is in foal.But i know from past history that horses in foal usually run really well. Any thoughts on this greatly appreciated. :ok Should be at home doing the dishes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Was looking at each way on both Philson Run & The Outlier but odds have gone up considerably from what they were. Anyone any idea why? Philson Run was quite a tipped outsider as I understood it!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread heres a write up that Pinnacle send me every now and again. Most housewives will be getting their pin out on Saturday morning to make their selection for the Grand National, and with so many factors to take into consideration, more seasoned gamblers could be forgiven for following suit. However, despite being such an unpredictable race there are some very solid trends that provide a better alternative. Narrowing Down the Field Weight is always a critical factor to consider when analysing handicapped horse races but given the extreme test of jumping and stamina the National presents, it assumes critical significance. Only five winners since the war have carried 11st 5lb (including Red Rum twice), so it will pay to concentrate on those horses weighted below that crucial figure. In 2006 only one of the nine horses that completed the course carried more than 11 stone, and all were aged between 9-12. Age provides another reliable way of thinning down the field. Punters are advised to only concentrate on runners within the 8-12yo bracket, as in the last 66 years no horse younger than eight has won the race, while you have to go back 83 years for a winner aged over 12. It is probably stating the obvious but given the extreme length of the race any Grand National contender must have proven stamina over at least 3 miles, and be a reliable jumper, as no other steeple chase presents a greater challenge. Given the age constraints already outlined this will logically point toward a class horse which has already proved its worth in a valuable chase, which is another point to look out for. With over GBP400,000 on offer to the winner, it is no surprise that some trainers spend all year targeting horses at this one race. Those entrants campaigned with this race in mind, will stand a better chance, and will probably have avoided the rigours of Cheltenham, which was only 4.5 weeks previous. Along with those issues already outlined, any gambler looking to have a bet on the National should take into consideration the usual considerations for any run-of-the-mill race. This includes questioning whether the horse goes on the ground (forecasted as Good), has it been running well recently, and is the stable is hot or not? Last but not least, once you have reduced the 40 horse field to just a few names, don't undo all the good work by losing out on any potential returns. Place your bet with a low commission SportsBook like PinnacleSports.com, who offer head-to-head markets at up to 60% better odds than the competition and whose margins for the outright market will be substantially lower than traditional bookmakers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Philson Run drifitng badly Carl' date=' may go for the Scottish instead - if so, thats really suprising given some of the trainers past quotes that he would be aimed at the English version![/quote'] In your opinion is Philson Run still worth a small e/w shot? Odds are at 66/1 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Was looking at each way on both Philson Run & The Outlier but odds have gone up considerably from what they were. Anyone any idea why? Philson Run was quite a tipped outsider as I understood it!? Probably due to the ground, it looks really good if not good/firm and all the bog trotters from Ireland and Hvy winners wont like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread as a side note I can see a lot of horses getting pulled up on Saturday after ½ the way round with that ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread I think we can now understand the decision to decide against running Exitic Dancer in the National!!! LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Carl, most of those have doubts on Good or better ground? McKelvey is a big interest & i have heard it mentioned a few times this week. Dont bother with the ew, just back to win mate! some good horses in this race this year, short list of Billyvoddan, mckelvey, Joes edge, parsons legacy, monkerhostin. McKelvey 'as stated' Bother Na has won on Good/Firm and good to firm in place. Simon I agree will want some rain as its won on Gd/soft at most. The Outlier would prefer it softer. :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leics poshie Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Just logged into my Betfair account and have McKelvey @ 36 with a Hefty £2 on it, cant even remember doing that bet:cow So Thats £5 Clan Royal - Place @ 8's £2 McKelvey - Win @ 36's £5 Point Barrow - Win @ 16/1 Will probably do Eurotrek as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted April 12, 2007 Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Can anybody confirm that Homer Wells is definitely a non runner? Still appearing on most coupons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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