RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Moving onto Thursday and I would like a winner on the board for the week, but only the one that catches my eye. *Full bet* 2.55 Lingfield Open looking 12 runner Class 4 handicap over 6f. Pace could well be all important here as there look to be many taking each other for the lead, including Cecily, Comadoir, Dvinsky, I Confess and White Shift. The last 4 named all occupy low draws too so it will be interesting to see which one makes it or whether they battle for the lead. For the reason of competitiveness for the lead, I will discount all these from the final equation. River Kirov is the fav but comes here on the back of a claiming company win, this is much tougher whilst Chjimes should have the race to suit and loves this place, but I'm just worried about its current form. Evelyn May looks better at 5f and is a touch high in the handicap so my preference is for: Cut The Cackle (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Certain that this one will go very well here. Drawn low in 2 and is versatile with regards to racing style; equally effective racing prominently or being held up; so its draw gives it every chance to obtain the best possible early position. Won 2 of its first 3 races, all last season, including its handicap debut off 82 and comes here off just 77 with a decent claimer taking another 5lb off. Both those wins were over the minimum trip and, although many racing pundits believe the horse needs 5f, I firmly believe it will be seen in better light over this trip and possibly even 7f. Although winless in 7 starts this term, it's not been a season devoid of promise; taking each & every run, I think the horse has performed creditably, often with conditions against it. On its seasonal reappearance, ran midfield when the draw beat the horse and then finished 2nd over C&D off 83. Nto at Goodwood, the slow pace didn't help and then a poor run at Windsor when deciding to cut out the running. 2 good runs followed, whilst lto at Kempton, the wide draw again didn't help. Eased a further 1lb for that run, I believe the horse will be primed and ready to strike. The track has been riding slower than normal this season and that is another factor that could suit. With the breakneck pace expected and my belief that this horse has stamina aplenty, I fancy a first win of the season is for the taking at EW odds.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) It isn't going too great at all this week:$ Strange ride this by the jockey. Raced at the back early doors which wasn't a problem with the very strong pace but decided to switch from its inside stall of 2 to come widest of all in the straight, staying on past beaten horses in the straight. Wouldn't have won, I'm sure of that, but would have been a lot, lot closer with a more sensible ride. In all fairness, I was disappointed by the selection yesterday but otherwise, I've not had much luck with the jockeyship this week. Having said that, it's no use worrying about the past; I must up my game to keep in profit as it's nearly all wiped out again.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Moving onto Friday and hopefully we can see a turn of luck. 2.30 Southwell Quite a decent looking Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip with 13 to line up. Over this trip, there are 2 things I consider crucial here; C&D form and a low to middle draw. Of the 2 market leaders, I'm keen to oppose both; Feeling Foxy has it all to prove on this track whilst I feel Colorus may find this mark too much to overcome. Add to that the double figure draws they both have and I'm happy to take them on. Solemn has been in form but mark looks way too high and switch to this track may again be a negative. Lesleys Choice has solid claims and a decent draw to boot, but the 2 niggling doubts are that it will be challenged hard for the early lead and its 2nd here 2 starts ago may not be followed up. This leaves me with the 1 I feel is well treated here and should go close in: Figaro Flyer (7/1 Bet365 BOG) - Absolutely loves this C&D and has a perfect draw in 2. In really solid form and still think this mark is well within the horses reach. When analysing chances at Southwell, it's generally wise to discount anything not over this C&D provided it has soon some ability in its other races. Lto at Wolverhampton, didn't get the run of the race but still stayed on for 4th off this mark but it is it's form here that interests me most. Form figures of 2-1-2-3-1-2-2 looks pretty good to me, and on each of those runs has recorded a RPR above the mark it races off today; its 2 wins were off OR's of 63 and 66, races off 70 today. Beat Colorus when winning here back in April and its 2 races here since have seen it finished a head 2nd to a 89-rated AW horse and 3/4L 2nd to Guto, when I feel its apprentice jockey made too much use of the horse from a poor draw in 13 (winner was in 5). No such worries today as the competition is not as strong as the first run, whilst it has a much better draw than last time here. Remains in good heart and I can't believe this one won't be in the shake up. *Full bet*

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2nd bet for Friday comes just 1 hour later. 3.30 Southwell Only 9 for this 1m, Class 4 handicap but it looks a really competitive heat. A really tight betting contest, with the front 5 in the market all priced between 4/1-6/1 currently. None of these stand out, which is the reason for the uncertainty, so I'm keen to look at one of the bigger priced opponents to take them on with. This one is: Avertis (10/1 Bet365 BOG) - Sticking to the principles of course form and generally a prominent racing style, this one comes right into the mix. No show in last 2 starts but they were both over the wrong trip and on the wrong surface. Wolverhampton doesn't suit so both races are readily passed over. I much prefer to look at this horses' chances on its 2 starts here; won off 74 here last term and then followed that up with a close 3rd off 80 (off 79 today) 3 starts ago, behind one of todays rivals McConnell. 7lb better for 1.5L, and over twice the price. Is best when able to dominate and, other than Salient, I firmly believe there is no other rival for the lead. With the stable in decent nick and the underrated Micky Fenton on top, I fancy this ones chances to hold off the challengers and nick this from the front off the final turn. Looks overpriced to me and should go very well. *Reserve bet*

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Both well backed, and only the one placed, :eyes Keep at it Russ, the winners will be along soon enough

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor card but 1 bet in the last. 4.40 Wolverhampton 9f handicap with 11 runners for this Class 4, 0-80 handicap. I'm keen to oppose Spinning who, despite having conditions to suit, looks a little ungenuine so it's not one to get stuck into. Also want to be against the other likely fav, Alqaahir who is up in class and up in mark, and doesn't look to have much in hand of the handicapper. Of those at bigger prices, I like: Xpres Maite (12/1 Bet365) - Looks a big price for what is, in my opinion, the class horse of the race. Has now dropped to a really tempting mark of just 80 and should be able to be competitive now on its last winning mark. Has raced 13 times on the AW this term and has won twice off 80 and 85, and placed twice more, both times off 85. The 3 efforts off 85 were in Class 3, the win off Class 4. Returns to the latter grade today. In all but the last 2 efforts, this race has run better than todays mark. Has started sluggishly on last 2 starts and needs to put those runs behind it but this extra distance should help too. Versatile with regards to running style but, from the 1 box, I'd like to see this one settle just behind the lead and kick hard off the final turn, hoping its form at 6f will give it the necessary speed to land the spoils here at a big price.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice big price at 12's, as it returned 7's :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) One later tonight for the thread: 8.50 Wolverhampton Looks a nice race, a Class 2 9f handicap with 12 runners. The hot fav here is Fanunalter but I'm keen to oppose as it is too short due to the Ryan Moore factor. Won its maiden but then 2nd off 89 and nowhere off tonights mark of 94, definitely something to prove. JP's horse races off the same mark as lto but has had quite a while off the track and is better at shorter. The Irish challenger, Grand Opera, is a big danger if putting its best foot forward but I'm preferring to go with: Wintercast (12/1 William Hill) - Drawn low in 2 so early positioning should be fine and comes here with a fine chance, especially with stable in such good form. Lightly raced type that looks capable of a great amount of improvement, a horse I was expecting 7 or 8/1 on. After 18 months off, the horse reappeared in April and finished a creditable 3rd off 87 on its only AW run, is off 91 tonight. Some decent efforts since finishing 5th, 2nd & 2nd, the latter off tonights mark. 4 months off before 2 poor efforts, one when being hampered on good/soft ground and the last one when not appreciating soft ground. Dropped 2lb for this run and track & surface should suit so worth chancing at the price that a return to form is imminent.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Wintercast was backed in very heavily late on to 5/1 2nd fav but couldn't justify the support after leading until 1f out, beaten into 5th. Anyway, onto Saturday, and 2 bets for this thread; 1 this afternoon and another from the evening meet. The first of these is below. 3.35 Lingfield Final race on this card and a wide open event. A Class 4, 6f handicap with 12 runners. Ektimaal is the strong fav after winning lto but is up in mark and had the race run to suit that day. Not sure it is a good thing to win again here. There are plenty of dangers but, at the prices, the one I'm liking is: Drawnfromthepast (14/1 William Hill) - At its best, this one would walk this. Windsor Castle winner in 2007 but nowhere near that form since. What I like to look for at this track is a prominent type as it has quite a shortish straight to come from behind. This one is almost assured to race up with the pace but is happy to sit just off the leaders if they go off too quick. Is drawn well in 4 too to assist its style. This term on turf has been campaigned exclusively in Class 2 events racing off marks as high as 100. However, in its last 3 runs (all on the AW), has been dropped to Class 4 and has finished 4th on each occasion off 85, 84 and 84; races off 83 today. I'm not sure Kempton fully suited and looked better when at Wolverhampton lto. Raced up with the pace from stall 9 and held every chance inside the distance. This race is no better than that, so with the ease of 1lb in mark and course more likely to suit from a better draw, this price looks too big to ignore.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4th again for Drawnfromthepast. That's 4 4ths on the bounce on the AW. Correct to oppose the fav though but still no cigar. Onto tonight and 1 more. 9.20 Wolverhampton The traditional 'getting out' stakes and I hope this will get me out of a rut. 12 runners for this Class 6 race over just shy of 9 furlongs. Thunderstruck is the fav and rightly so but I'm not sure how much improvement this one has left so I'll pass it over. Gifted Heir is in form too but 6lb above highest winning mark and raised another 1lb for creditable 3rd lto, stable in form though so should give its running. However, looking to those bigger priced ones as usual, I'm putting my faith in: Island Music (11/1 Bet365) - Stables only runner at this meeting and, for the first time in a while, puts a pro jockey up top. Doesn't have the greatest win record and having only its 2nd go on the AW, but comes here off a very attractive mark and ran very well on its only try on the sand. Placed twice from 11 starts this year and, interestingly, there were the only 2 runs where a pro was riding. Ran ok lto when probably the best of those held up in an amateurs race, carrying 10st9; just 9-3 to carry today. Previous to that, finished well when 4th of 13 on its AW debut having been held up; stayed close to the rail that day too which may not have totally been in its favour. Cheekpieces reapplied and dropped 2lbs in the weight which may be enough to make the difference here. Has won off 71 in Class 4 last year so this mark & grade looks well within its grasp. Like both the trainer and jockey so believe 11's is too big to ignore and will be there at the business end.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Final bet of the year before a big effort in 2010. 3.30 Lingfield Small field of 8 runners for this Class 4, 0-80 handicap over 7f. This race could turn very tactical with a distinct lack of pace and it may not fully suit my fella but, at the price, I'm taking: Sunshine Always (9/1 SportingBet) - Still lightly raced and a horse I feel still has improvement left. Likes to be held up so uncertain how the pace factor will affect the horse but I do like the fact Jim Crowley takes the ride. Has plenty of form at this specialist distance and has now dropped to a reasonable mark of just 78. Since winning a claimer in September, has finished 3-2-6-4-4-6 off marks of 80 to 83. They were all at Kempton and I have a feeling this left handed track may suit better; the change of scenery could be all important. Has some decent form in its recent defeats, including a 6th when poorly drawn and IMO poorly ridden, and lto when 6th to a course record and great performance from Seek The Fair Land. Finished 2L behind Imprimis Tagula who has since gone on to win 2 Class 2 handicaps (0-100) including 1 by 9L. Plenty of others with chances here but at 9/1 with just 7 rivals to face, I'm happy to take the EW on offer.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) So, the end of the 3rd year of this thread comes and a very poor year all in all. Disappointed with myself more than anything and I will make a huge effort to post more regularly and to get this thing in profit. Thanks for all the support, hope I repay you in 2010.:ok 2009 Staked = 950.00pts Returned = 931.92pts Profit = -18.08 pts Yield = -1.9% Bets = 95 Winners = 7 (7.4% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 30 (31.6% s/r) 2008 Staked = 270.00pts Returned = 344.77pts Profit = +74.77pts Yield = +27.7% Bets = 27 Winners = 3 (11.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (29.6% s/r) 2007 Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r)

[palaceman]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Russ, before the thread gets swamped with replies along the lines of "Don't worry, it'll come good...class is permanent" etc (which although very well-meaning, aren't necessarily helpful, because they imply you should just carry on in the same way) perhaps I can make a comment or two, which I hope you'll find constructive. They are certainly intended to be. "Making a huge effort to post more regularly" might not necessarily be the solution. I think you need to analyse carefully your approach to establish why things haven't gone as well as you hoped, without any pre-conceived ideas. In particular, I would suggest you concentrate on your winners strike rate. You need to look at why this has fallen to 7.4%, because whilst it remains so low, profitability will be difficult. I appreciate that with big field handicaps the strike rate is bound to be quite low, and the winning prices will to some extent compensate; but when it is as low as that, it would be very difficult to make a profit. Why is it so low? That is what you really need to establish. I seem to recall that at one stage during the season you had a very high-priced winner. That was great, but to some extent it has masked the situation. Without that one particular winner, the overall figures would have looked a lot worse I suspect. Relying on the very occasional very big-priced winner is not an approach that is likely to prove successful. You can certainly turn this around. You clearly have the knowledge and talent to do so. But I do strongly suggest you look very carefully at how you might improve the actual strike rate of winning selections, and that can only be done with some hard work in terms of analysis of the year's performance. Hope that is of some help. I genuinely wish you well for next year and hope you don't feel I have been over-critical :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Don't worry, it'll come good...class is permanent mate:ok (couldnt resist) Russ you actually posted a lot more last year than you did in 2008 which surprised me, anyway Palaceman gives good advice and i'm sure you'll sort it out mate.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers guys:ok Palaceman, thanks for the post. Some good stuff in there and certainly food for thought. My comment regarding 'post more regularly' doesn't come across the way it's supposed to:$. I've been guilty of trying too many new things and then quickly realising they're wrong before going AWOL for a month; that's not good. What I meant was that I'll make a real effort to be 'available' to bet on most days during the year, but only to take a bet when it's there. When I was more profitable, I concentrated on a certain set of criteria but I've deviated massively from that. My last winner, Fantasy Explorer, came as a result of going 'back to basics' and that's what I'll do. I've looked through my results of the year and know where I'm going wrong so plan to change that. I do feel that I can only read handicaps but have suffered from a huge lack of confidence and, for a while, I fell out of love for the game. That love is now restored and I'm looking forward massively to the new year. One of my golden rules, which I've ignored this year, is 'no bet is no problem' - I must remember that. I do know what sort of strike rate I need in terms of win & place to make a profit - a 1 in 8 win ratio and 1 in 3 (incl winners) place ratio is enough to record a very acceptable return. That clearly assumes my minimum recommended price, although accepting many will start much higher and some slightly lower. Appreciate your words and thanks for taking the time to post. Take care & here's wishing you a very happy new year:cheers

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Russ, like Palaceman, I'd like to add some constructive comments, I hope they don't come across patronising from a younger head, but I'd like to just comment as an outsider looking into the thread as sometimes others can pick up things that the thread author cannot see. I remember you saying before that you look within a specific price band for a bet, for arguments sake lets calls it 6/1 to 20/1 because based on your strike rate and past results you need x number of winners within this price category to make a profit. Do you think this may be where your recent problems have been, that you have been blinkered and missed good betting opportunities outside of your current betting range. For example, it is very unlikely that you can back a progressive handicapper at odds within this range, yet they can and do win a lot of handicaps, but would never pass under your radar. Say there was a horse available at 4/1 that realistically you thought would be 2/1 and looked a good thing, would you ignore it because a win at 4/1 wouldn't meet your strike rate, even though it looked a fantastic value bet? I don't mean to criticise the type of horses you back because it is each to their own, some punters prefer favs only, others prefer outsiders only. I assume that you have adopted the mentality that favourites only win 1/3 of handicaps and that you will be a punter that bets in the 2/3 of races where they don't, and a niced priced winner is found as an alternative? I think when a punter backs horses in the outsider category though they are often depending on the favourites underperforming and if those favourites do not underperform then they are vulnerable to long losing runs (on the back of one myself). This is espeically true in the low grade handicaps where horses are so inconsistent, one week they can barely run straight, the next they hack up by six lengths, and if you don't get the breaks it can be difficult. So sometimes backing the odd favourite or short priced one keeps a punter sane and convinces them they haven't lost the plot! Over three years now you have backed a couple of hundred horses so it seems you have a good set of data to sit down and analyse, but would you comsider broadening your approach and back more progressive types at the expense of some outsiders? It would require a change of strategy but if your selections are coming into the race with less to prove it seems logical you will find more winners and boost your strike rate, which inturn boosts your confidence. You then see races in a more truer sense (as we all get clouded on losing runs) and in turn you are increasing the number of bets you place, which gives you more results to analyse, giving you a more robust data set, less skewed by anomolous results, giving you more confidence the conclusions you are drawing (RE strike rate and the price band to bet in) are appropriate? Wayne

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 1.00 Southwell The bare minimum here for paying 3 places, 8 runners for a quality Class 2 handicap over the straight 5f course. 6 of the 8 here contested a similar event 3 days ago so it’s worth looking for something through that form line. 2 of the 3 market leaders, Lesley’s Choice and Nickel Silver, are the 2 that didn’t run earlier in the week and both come here off the back of lto victories. Nickel Silver won a Class 4 handicap here lto but faces a tough task here, with the jump in class and the reassessment resulting in a 7lb hike in the weights for just a 0.75L win over Colorus. The 2^nd there re-opposes today, essentially off 1lb better, and is priced at 16/1. For me, there is not that much discrepancy . Lesley’s Choice, meanwhile, is running really well on this surface, winning its last 3 off 77, 83 & 87. Up another 4lb today to a career high 91 and I feel the improvement will stop soon. On its last running, has absolutely nothing in hand of Equuleus Pictor so, as likely fav, I will oppose. Of the 6 that ran here on Tuesday, I will pass over the biggest priced 3 in the market which are Pawan, Colorus and Canadian Danehill. At their best, they would all have a chance but their apparent poor showings make them dodgy betting propositions in a race full of in-form animals. Of the 1-2-3 that day, the first to be passed over is the winner that day, Fitz Flyer. Admittedly a good effort but a 6lb penalty makes life very tough here and it will be an amazing feat to see it beat the 2^nd & 3^rd today. Rebel Duke, the 2^nd in that race, is the likely fav here and it’s easy to see why. Was just a nose back and races off the same mark today. Good record at the track with 3 wins & 6 places for 11 tries so almost certain to be involved in the shake up. However, I don’t want to be taking 3/1 on any horse in this race so my selection here is: Equuleus Pictor (13/2 SportingBet) - I’m going to start by getting the negative out of the way, it’s the only horse in the field not to have won over C&D. That doesn’t concern me too much as it has run well both tries here. I like the horse a lot and its turf form has been pretty impressive winning 6 of its 32 handicaps on grass; 4 on good/soft, 1 on soft and 1 on heavy which gives it the perfect credentials for racing at Southwell. On its debut here 2 starts ago, finished runner up to Lesley’s Choice, less than a length back, and is 4lb better off today. Finished in front of Rebel Duke that day as well as the 3 outsiders in this field. Followed up that effort with a close up 3^rd here on Tuesday, again having the beating of the 3 outsiders, but failing to master Rebel Duke and Fitz Flyer. Again, only 1L back so the 6lb pull with the latter will be enough to turn the tables. It’s really how it will beat Rebel Duke that is the question; very interestingly for me, Jack Dean (3lb claimer) is replaced on this horse having partnered it for 24 of its last 26 races, and winning on it 5 times. Not only that but Dean does ride here today. The question therefore is why? Well, he’s replaced by a promising 7lb claimer in Declan Cannon, effectively making the horse 4lb well in with Rebel Duke. I can only imagine the reason for putting Cannon on top is for handicap purposes and the trainer clearly believes this extra allowance will make the difference. A cracking race in prospect and I take Equuleus Pictor to land the spoils here with Rebel Duke and Lesley’s Choice filling the places.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Rebel Duke landed the spoils easily and, to be fair, was highlighted as the main danger. What I didn't expect was the good runs from Nickel Silver and Fitz Flyer meaning my selection was pushed down to 4th:( Bad start to the new year but over 350 betting days to go;)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Gutted:sad. Just missed the 9/1 on Premier Lad in the 3.05 Southwell which I was really, really sweet on. Now a best price 5/1:eek. Cannot back it at that price but really fancy it to go very close today.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Ah well, a bit of luck there. The price dip on Premier Lad made it a no bet; just as well, as it finished out of the money:lol Onto today and at least 1 bet. Still looking at another but I'll post the first one up. 3.35 Kempton A Class 4, 0-85 handicap here sees a competitive field of 13 over 1m4f. Some in form types line up with 4 lto winners so not a race to take a very short price about. The expected market leader is Tripitaka, currently trading at around 5/2. Certainly in with a big chance but it's inexperience would be a worry for me, with only 3 runs to date, albeit winning twice. Won a pretty uncompetitive 5 runner race here lto when making all but this is a totally different ball game and I'm not sure it's done enough to suggest defying this 7lb higher mark. Saying that, it is improving but is no 5/2 shot. Free Tussy, on a hat trick, is at 5/1 in the market and on recent form, stands a chance. However, this is its toughest assignment all year on the AW, is up 6lb and takes a rise in grade. Add to that doubts over the extra 2f and the fact Fergus Sweeney rides (as opposed to Ryan Moore & George Baker, on for its last 2 wins), I'm happy to take this one on too. Maslak is a front runner but has a terrible draw in 2, may expend too much energy trying to get there. Is also up 2lb for a defeat, albeit by a head, and that's not the ideal profile for a race like this. Again up in grade and is probably better suited to small fields. Kings Supreme has a chance from the Hannon yard but was given a nice ride by Hughes lto and its 9 week absence worries me a little. It looked a weak race it won lto so a 3lb rise may just be enough to stop this one here. Paktolos certainly has possibilities and ran its best race for some time lto at Lingfield when 2nd off this mark. Not easy to discount but is a horse that goes better for Sweeney than any other jockey so the fact he's on Free Tussy is a concern. Dakiyah has come in for support but 5lb rise in weights for an average run in a Listed contest makes this one handicapped out of it for me. The one, therefore, that I'm supporting is: Evident Pride (12/1 Skybet) - Too big a price for me to ignore. Does have something to find with Paktolos on its run lto but I feel today is the day. Beginning to look incredibly well handicapped, now 6lb below its last winning mark (that race a Class 2 handicap too). Since starting its winter campaign on the AW (5 starts ago), its form has been 3-4-3-6 and that has seen its mark drop from 85 to 82. In most of those races, has struggled to settle due to the lack of pace and the small fields. The bigger field here will definitely suit as will the longer straight at Kempton (previous runs at Lingfield). There also looks to be plenty of pace so if the underrated Liam Keniry can settle the horse early, I expect a big challenge from this one. Has a good record on the AW generally, 6 wins from 25 starts, with a further 9 placed efforts. Has 3 wins here at Kempton from 9 attempts; has finished out of the frame just 3 times here, racing in Class 2 or 3 handicaps off marks of 95-89-89. In its other 6 runs here, form reads 1-2-1-2-3-1, mark ranging from 66 to 88. This is its lowest AW mark for over 2 years. I like this type, dropping in mark whilst retaining its form, and I feel this horse fits the bill. Tripitaka and Paktolos look big dangers but, at a big price, I will take the 12/1 EW on this.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) No real bets since the beginning of Jan but I'll going to dip my toe again and have a crack on the AW in preparation for the start of the flat next weekend. I'm off out tomorrow so posting this one up now. 2.25 Lingfield A real competitive handicap, a Class 2 7f handicap with 10 runners lining up. As it stands, there are 4 vying for favouritism and I'm opposing all of them. The Scorching Wind is the current likely fav under Ryan Moore but 2 main things put me off - 4lb raise in weights for lto win by the narrowest of margins (effectively 7lb if you include Carson's 3lb claim lto) and 7 weeks off the track. Brave Echo reopposes on 1lb better terms after being the one touched off in that race 7 weeks ago. The track absence again is an issue for me but of more a concern is the 2 narrow defeats, possibly ungenuine, and the rising mark without winning. Seek The Fair Land stands a chance but I'd prefer to ignore the last run where the pace was almost non existent, turning very tactical. If that form was solid, then the 2lb rise would look lenient but I think it's brave to back this horse on the basis of that run. I looked long and hard at Elna Bright, ridden by Fallon, and this is horse I like. As mentioned above, it's easy to ignore that race lto but I'm not one to back horses raised in handicap when failing to win on its last run so for that reason only, I'm passing over this one. However, it remains the main danger to the selection. Everymanforhimself is a useful type but is drawn too wide and looks to have been handicapped out of this whilst Autumn Blades needs the cheekpieces to be seen to best effect, but today it has the visor. Wigrams Turn is better at Kempton, is raised in mark for a lto defeat and starts too slowly to put your hard earned on, whereas Carcinetto and Tourist are the rags here and have too much to do to get competitive although the latter could sneak a place. This leaves us with the selection and that right goes to: Kyllachy Storm (14/1 Stan James) - I've now warmed to Richard Fahey whilst remaining a big fan of Paul Hanagan, and believe they may have the winner here. Interesting that stable had only 1 runner today, winning at 14's, and they travel further south here for just 1 again. The jockey has no other booked rides, which I find interesting. Won back in October here off a 2lb lower mark, under a great ride from the jockey and winning a shade cosily here, showing a nice turn of foot. Shown nothing since, last of 6 on its return from almost 4 months off in the aforementioned slowly run affair where Seek The Fair Land won. This horse actually ran well for a long way but its run petered out when needing the run. Has the cheekpieces back on, ran well on only previous try and eases in mark following last run. Looks a tight affair so every little thing could count so both mark of 88 and the cheekpieces could be the key. Has a nice draw in 7 to track the pace and makes it move off the final bend. Versatile with regards to pace which is a plus where it's not entirely certain that anyone wll go on. The price looks too big here. Admittedly, there are question marks but that can be said about every other horse in the race. Trainer wouldn't run here if he didn't feel it would do itself justice so I'll ignore its last run and take a bit of the 14's on offer.

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) good to see you back again Russ :ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Ditto :ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) ...ps STAR not STORM and 16's with SJ :lol....i'm on :ok good luck

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) The market said it all really:$. Drifted out to 20's and ran poorly. Surprised that Hanagan never put it in the race, especially off the slow pace. Keeping the momentum, I'm heading over the water today for one. 4.30 Curragh The Irish Lincoln here with 22 going to post for this 1m handicap. Both Dermot Weld and Jim Bolger have to be massively feared, especially so early on in the season so it's hard to easily discount the trio of Toraidhe, Designated Decoy and Award Ceremony. All 3 should go well but the one that I'm keen to play is: Barack (10/1 Ladbrokes BOG) - I really like the chances of this one today. Drawn in the middle so shouldn't be inconvenienced if one side is quicker than the other. Comes from an unfashionable stable and I'm convinced would be shorter if it hailed from one of the bigger yards. I also like the fact that O'Donogh now gets the ride which is a big plus in this type of event. In this big events, the young improving type is normally the one to be on and Barack fits the bill. Still only a 4yo, this horse did nothing but improve, although conditions meant it went the season without winning. The positive is that it's mark has remained intact. 2 runs last season particularly stand out to me, its 5th of 27 in the Irish Cambridgeshire when run out of the places very late on. This is a super effort for a 3yo and is only 2lb higher today. The horse that edged Barack out of the money that day was another 3yo Choose Me who has since won a listed event and finished 2nd in a group race on its only 2 starts since. The other run to catch my eye was it's last one, a 2nd of 19 in a nice handicap at Leopardstown, again tackling the older horses. Both of those runs were achieved on unsuitably heavy ground which I'm not expecting today. Clearly we will see the ground on the soft side but that's no problem. You've got to expect the horse will have strengthened over the winter and I'm expecting a big run from a horse that will get every yard of this trip. At 10/1, I'm happy to be on EW and provide its trainer with a big win at the local course.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Barack ran a nice race to finish in 4th at jt 3rd fav 8/1. Profit achieved there but it was no match for the winner who certainly got 1st run and stayed on well, Big Robert. Looking ahead to Monday and there's one AW meeting and I'll play in the very last race. 5.50 Wolverhampton A 6f, Class 6 handicap over 6f and this looks to be a very open event to round off the day. The in form Derek Shaw has 2 of the market leaders and both hold sound claims but are however opposable at the prices. Rabbit Fighter is a horse that made my shortlist and it returns to its last winning mark but it is scrubbed as it didn't show enough for me lto. His other charge is Ride A White Swan who won a Class 7 lto but is raised 4lb despite deadheating and I can't see it following up in this company. Cheery Cat won lto but is up in mark and had the run of the race so again is opposed. This leaves me with my selection: Withnail - Only 2nd run for its new trainer and I think it could be the day to get off the mark. Formerly trained in Ireland, this horse was a winner 3 starts ago at Dundalk off just 2lb lower than todays mark. That event was a much better contest than this and the horse was mightily impressive, having been last of 14 in the straight, trapped on the inside before switching widest of all and getting up on the line. Followed that with a 4th over an unsuitable 5f. Lost nothing in defeat but definitely needs the 6f it will get here. Has since moved to England and ran after 3 months off finishing 7th of 11 but close up having been very heavily backed. That day, the horse didn't pick up as it had at Dundalk but looked in need of the run. I think the straight here will suit as it gives you enough time to pick up from off the pace and it's one of few with improvement still in it. Lightly raced for a 6yo and, with fitness assured, a step up on its last run is expected here at an EW price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Awful run from Withnail there. Am going to take my 2 for the big one on Saturday now, in advance of the draw & final decs being made. 3.10 Doncaster The first big handicap of the flat season, max field of 22 expected for this Class 2 1m race. In advance of the draw being made, I'm taking 2 against the field: Penitent (5/1 Bet365 BOG) - The more I look, the more I can't get away from the red hot fav. This is not normally a selection I would make but I feel it's potential is way beyond that of anything else in the race. Hails from a yard that has taken this prize twice, fits most of the trends being a lightly raced progressive 4yo making its seasonal bow and has the most eye catching jockey booking possible in Johnny Murtagh. Not yet out the first 2 on its 5 starts, I really think this horse could take this comfortably if fully wound up. I believe it will start shorter on the day, possibly into 7/2 or less so will take the price now, being an EW bet to nothing at 5's. Doctor Crane (16/1 Totesport BOG) - My original fancy for the race and one I think will start at single figure odds. From last years winning yard, Gosden relies on this horse only in this race, ironically owned by his wife. This looks to me to be the other horse that I think will go on to contest regularly at group level and if that is to be believed, it must go very close here. Has winning form over 10f which confirms its stamina, winner lto, raised 7lb but progressive and should go well for its master trainer. If I had 2 slight concerns over its chances, it would be that its unproven in big fields and hasn't raced yet on soft ground, but I'm not too worried or else I feel the trainer would have pulled it out. Has a good win ratio and tick almost all the trends so at a big looking 16's (10's elsewhere), I'll take this EW to give its trainer a chance to follow up on last years win with Expresso Star.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Doctor Crane withdrawn so that's a loser but sure to beat the price on the fav, Penitent who is now into 11/4. There's another I fancy so am going to add one more to my Lincoln string. 3.10 Doncaster In addition to Penitent running for me at 5's, I'm going to add: Prime Exhibit (12/1 Stan James BOG) - Gets in here off bottom weight with a mark of 91 and the jockey also takes off a further 3lb. Looks really well handicapped and has a super draw in 5, just 4 away from the fav and near to the pace. Now a 5yo but still very lightly raced with only 9 career starts to its credit. Will relish the ground, is versatile with regards to race position and is a very strong traveller, key in this race on this going. Ran well in its prep 2 weeks ago over an inadequate 6f on the AW, staying on really well after getting no sort of run. That will have put the horse spot on for this. Last term, recorded figures of 4-1-3-2, and is probably best judged on its 2nd in a Class 2 at Salisbury splitting a pair of useful types, one which has gone on to land a Listed contest & the other a Class 2 handicap off 102. Should love the fast pace it will get here and no surprise to see this start at single figures. The one most likely to upset the hot fav.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) And now for 1 in the opener. 2.00 Doncaster The Spring Mile, a Class 2 handicap with 21 runners to start the turf season in style. 8/1 the field and it normally pays to stick with those in the first 5 in the betting so the one I'm taking is: Elliptical (12/1 Bet365 BOG) - In this race, lto form is not crucial so the fact it finished last of 15 doesn't worry me. More to my liking is its good draw in 8, easing mark of 85 and it's profile, a 4yo with just 8 races under its belt. The key to this horse is that it likes to race up with the pace. Of the low numbers, only 2 others likely to be up there from the outset so I expect the jockey to settle this in the front 3 on the far side. In its 4 starts racing prominently, has finished 3-1-1-3 against 5-0-6-0 when midfield or worse. Goes on soft ground, winning at Salisbury last summer and is one of very few that is stepping up in class, a key stat in this race. Trainers other runner is drawn low too and likes to force the pace so I expect it will set it up for this horse and, at the price, should go well and give us a great start to the season.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good Luck with today's selections Russ