RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) :clap:clap Small profit is what it's all about Russ

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Stats update: 2009 Staked = 60.00pts Returned = 87.500pts Profit = +27.50pts Yield = +45.8% Bets = 6 Winners = 1 (16.7% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 2 (33.3% s/r) 2008 Staked = 270.00pts Returned = 344.77pts Profit = +74.77pts Yield = +27.7% Bets = 27 Winners = 3 (11.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (29.6% s/r) 2007 Turf Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) One bet for Monday and I'm hoping to get off to a winning start for the week: 1.40 Wolverhampton A pretty low grade affair, a Class 6 0-52 handicap, with 12 runners competing over 7f. Any one of 5 horses here could start favourite and I strongly believe the winner will come from these 5. I'm opposing Aggbag as it seems an inconsistent type, Mr Rev is still a maiden whilst Stargazy has it to prove from outside draw and a very inexperienced 7lb claimer. Just Jimmy has solid claims but always seems to find 1 or 2 too good even when conditions suit. Therefore, the one I'm on is: Inka Dancer (RPF 7/1) - I really think this horse has a good chance today. Draw on the inside in stall 1, it will be able to obtain a nice early position and that could be crucial early doors. Raced off much higher marks and ran well of them too. Very little recent form to go on and was lightly raced in 2008 but I'm sweet on this horses chances based on its last run. Was dropped to todays mark for that race, and raced over just 6f (seems better at 7f). Had Catherine Gannon in the saddle that day, the horse broke well and settled in 2nd/3rd but got shuffled back through the pack as it seemed a little outpaced. However, made a strong run on the inside off the home turn and looked a real danger until snatched up just inside the final furlong. In the end, finished 3L 6th but would surely have finished much closer with a clear run. Also looked to stay on well so I'm confident the extra furlong will play to its strengths too. That was its first run for over 100 days so extra fitness today also a plus. Add to that a very positive jockey booking who is 5 from 15 in the last 14 days, including winners at 20/1, 14/1 & 12/1, I'm pretty happy to play EW on this horse. Unsure on what the price will be but anything around 7/1 should be taken.

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) best of luck with this. A close second yesterday with Ace of Hearts and you picked out a well backed winner at Kempton today (mentioned in the meeting thread) so your a man in form!

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

1.40 Wolverhampton A pretty low grade affair, a Class 6 0-52 handicap, with 12 runners competing over 7f. Any one of 5 horses here could start favourite and I strongly believe the winner will come from these 5. I'm opposing Aggbag as it seems an inconsistent type, Mr Rev is still a maiden whilst Stargazy has it to prove from outside draw and a very inexperienced 7lb claimer. Just Jimmy has solid claims but always seems to find 1 or 2 too good even when conditions suit. Therefore, the one I'm on is: Inka Dancer (RPF 7/1) - I really think this horse has a good chance today. Draw on the inside in stall 1, it will be able to obtain a nice early position and that could be crucial early doors. Raced off much higher marks and ran well of them too. Very little recent form to go on and was lightly raced in 2008 but I'm sweet on this horses chances based on its last run. Was dropped to todays mark for that race, and raced over just 6f (seems better at 7f). Had Catherine Gannon in the saddle that day, the horse broke well and settled in 2nd/3rd but got shuffled back through the pack as it seemed a little outpaced. However, made a strong run on the inside off the home turn and looked a real danger until snatched up just inside the final furlong. In the end, finished 3L 6th but would surely have finished much closer with a clear run. Also looked to stay on well so I'm confident the extra furlong will play to its strengths too. That was its first run for over 100 days so extra fitness today also a plus. Add to that a very positive jockey booking who is 5 from 15 in the last 14 days, including winners at 20/1, 14/1 & 12/1, I'm pretty happy to play EW on this horse. Unsure on what the price will be but anything around 7/1 should be taken.

best of luck with this. A close second yesterday with Ace of Hearts and you picked out a well backed winner at Kempton today (mentioned in the meeting thread) so your a man in form!

Cheers Fin:ok Todays horse again finished 2nd at a nice EW price of 17/2. Ran well for a long way but the winner picked up well inside the last and edged it. Never in any doubt though that Inka Dancer would be placed though so another pleasing bet. Need to get back in the winners enclosure though:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Have had a real good look through tomorrow's cards and cannot find a stand out EW bet. There are horses I 'fancy' but none that can carry the full weight of my money. I do like backing at Lingfield, I really like the course but am struggling in the only handicap of note whilst Southwell has 3 betting opportunities but it's a course where things don't normally go to plan. For those looking for a fun E/W Yankee, Lucky 15 or similar, may I suggest: AVOCA DANCER (1.50 S)...7.6 Betfair VEILED APPLAUSE (3.20 S)...8.0 Betfair SLEW CHARM (4.50 S)...8.8 Betfair NIGHT ORBIT (4.10 S)...7.4 Betfair Just to confirm...NO BET Tuesday:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good job nobody invested my fun yankee, all unplaced despite 2 14/1 4ths!! Onto Saturday and just one from the afternoon meets, albeit at a very big price: 2.35 Lingfield 12 runners line up for this Class 4 handicap over 1m4f. There is a clear front 3 in the market and they all have claims but I'm going to look for a bit of EW value elsewhere. The 3 in question at shortish prices are Scarab, American Spin and Horseshoe Reef. I'll discount Scarab on the basis of a 5lb higher mark, racing in a bigger field and a break over 30 days whilst American Spin has to step up in class and carries 2lb more too, despite finishing 2nd lto. Horseshoe Reef ran well on its UK debut but I will question its chance of repeating that performance, another up in the weights too. Saying that, it is feasible these 3 could fill the 1-2-3! Looking at the others, Ameeq has come in for money but the absence worries me whilst Action Impact has a wide draw to overcome. Again, saying that, Moore saddles them both from the foot of the weights. The one for me, however, is: War Of The Roses (20/1 William Hill) - This looks a quality race for a Class 4 but, lets be fair, this is no 20/1 shot. Even on the face of it, has a great chance - jockey in super form (10/28 in last 14 days), trainer is 1/5, horse is race fit having ran just 14 days ago, has nice inside draw in 3, goes really well here (4 wins, 6 2nds from 13 starts), and has finished 2nd 3 times from its 4 tries in this grade. Was profilic 12 months ago with 3 wins and 3 2nds from 6 starts, all around here. Since then, hasn't bee quite as good but excuses for that. Has had 5 AW races since its turf campaign, all over C&D, form being 1-2-2-6-8. First 3 of those runs were off 75, 77 & 79, the last 2 in this grade. Recorded extremely good Topspeed figures in all 3 of those runs. Since then, has raced off marks off 84 & 85 in grades higher than today. Dropped 4lb back to 81 and 2 grades from Class 2 to 4, can show much improved form and should give a very good account of itself at a massive price.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well I invested, but you did say a fun bet so the cost was also fun for 10p stakes. As one day you will say a fun double-treble or yankee, and they will all roll in:nana:nana:nana:nana:nanaYou never know.:ok Good Luck today with this one Russ, Lets see you back in the winners enclosure :hope

[stewartd14]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) :nana:nana :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy He's back Won with any amount in hand :clap:clap

[billy the punter]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice one Russ! :ok:ok:ok Great shout.

[Stevet1859]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) That's brilliant Russ - great stuff. Thanks Steve

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Well I invested, but you did say a fun bet so the cost was also fun for 10p stakes. As one day you will say a fun double-treble or yankee, and they will all roll in:nana:nana:nana:nana:nanaYou never know.:ok Good Luck today with this one Russ, Lets see you back in the winners enclosure :hope

Thats it my son :clap:clap:clap:clap:ok:ok:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Had a nice little tickle, Thanks Russ

[puntalara]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) BRILLIANT well done

[Boulder5111]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) awesome Russ :clap Cracking write up, great logic, I hope you had a few quid on :ok

[Spooner]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) brilliant russ. :notworthy

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) fantastic shout mate, who would want to pay for a tip when gold dust like this is knocking around for free? Didn't follow today, as you know, I'd posted mine last night, but will be back on next time. I take it Jackie will be treated to a fudge cake breakfast in the morning then ;) :clap:clap:notworthy

[munki]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Absolutely fantastic stuff Russ :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Stunning!!!!

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

2.35 Lingfield 12 runners line up for this Class 4 handicap over 1m4f. There is a clear front 3 in the market and they all have claims but I'm going to look for a bit of EW value elsewhere. The 3 in question at shortish prices are Scarab, American Spin and Horseshoe Reef. I'll discount Scarab on the basis of a 5lb higher mark, racing in a bigger field and a break over 30 days whilst American Spin has to step up in class and carries 2lb more too, despite finishing 2nd lto. Horseshoe Reef ran well on its UK debut but I will question its chance of repeating that performance, another up in the weights too. Saying that, it is feasible these 3 could fill the 1-2-3! Looking at the others, Ameeq has come in for money but the absence worries me whilst Action Impact has a wide draw to overcome. Again, saying that, Moore saddles them both from the foot of the weights. The one for me, however, is: War Of The Roses (20/1 William Hill) - This looks a quality race for a Class 4 but, lets be fair, this is no 20/1 shot. Even on the face of it, has a great chance - jockey in super form (10/28 in last 14 days), trainer is 1/5, horse is race fit having ran just 14 days ago, has nice inside draw in 3, goes really well here (4 wins, 6 2nds from 13 starts), and has finished 2nd 3 times from its 4 tries in this grade. Was profilic 12 months ago with 3 wins and 3 2nds from 6 starts, all around here. Since then, hasn't bee quite as good but excuses for that. Has had 5 AW races since its turf campaign, all over C&D, form being 1-2-2-6-8. First 3 of those runs were off 75, 77 & 79, the last 2 in this grade. Recorded extremely good Topspeed figures in all 3 of those runs. Since then, has raced off marks off 84 & 85 in grades higher than today. Dropped 4lb back to 81 and 2 grades from Class 2 to 4, can show much improved form and should give a very good account of itself at a massive price.

Absolutely delighted with that, 20/1 winner:nana. To be honest, I couldn't believe the price, this was never a 20/1 shot, should have been half that price. How the hell a horse with such good form, awesome on this track and dropped not just 4lb but also 2 grades be priced like that baffled me! Tom Eaves gave it a great ride, although I thought he had boxed in around 2f from the finish. When it got out, the horse flew. Cheers guys for your support, I hope a few of you managed to get on:ok. Sorry to Kevsul too who lost some on my crap EW yankee earlier in the week, hope this made up for it. A nice 125pt profit too, taking the strike rate to 25% win, 50% place, more than happy with that.

I take it Jackie will be treated to a fudge cake breakfast in the morning then ;)

We have one in the fridge, mate:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Missed this one and did not have a bet on todays racing and kicking myself now. :wall Well done mate, cracking price, all this recent talk about tipsters etc i'm surprised no one has tried to snap you up yet. :ok Nearly 200,000 views on this thread alone and for me most respected tipster on ATR. :)

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Sorry to Kevsul too who lost some on my crap EW yankee earlier in the week, hope this made up for it.

Mate only £3 on the unlucky to 4ths for fun Yankee. Think I got enough on at the advised 20/1 with willhill :ok So more than made up for it.:clap:clap:notworthy:notworthy:beer:beer:beer:beer A big big thank you :ok won't be long like Phil said,and if it comes with a big retainer of £100Kplus for 10yrs take it ;)

[ogii55]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Total Respect :) Do u ever dring rakia?

[palaceman]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Very, very impressive.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) class russp..just goes to show the best tipsters in life are free:clap

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well done yesterday :clap

[devil tish]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) missed it:wall once again russ :clap take a bow mate, fantastic analysis as always

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) End of week stats update: 2009 Staked = 80.00pts Returned = 238.13pts Profit = +158.13pts Yield = +197.7% Bets = 8 Winners = 2 (25.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 4 (50.0% s/r) 2008 Staked = 270.00pts Returned = 344.77pts Profit = +74.77pts Yield = +27.7% Bets = 27 Winners = 3 (11.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (29.6% s/r) 2007 Turf Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r)

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) they make nice reading Russ :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Just one to start the week off with: 4.40 Wolverhampton Class 6 handicap over just short of 1m2f, with 13 expecting to face the starter. A very open heat with no definite fav and quite a few here to have reservations abouts. 3 of those that will be vying for favouritism had very wide draws in Agilete, Inside Story and Pelham Crescent, that's enough to put me off them. Emerald Rock comes straight from maiden company so I cannot have that either. Strike Force has a chance, now reunited with Jack Mitchell, who has won twice on the horse but the one for me is: Penang Cinta (RPF 13/2) - A really consistent horse but it has paid for this, not winning for just short of 2 years. However, tomorrow could see all that change. The horse goes back down to Class 6 company and sees it racing back at its last winning trip, over C&D, and just 1lb above that mark it won off all that time ago. Has been in the first 5 on its last 9 starts and gradually its mark has weakened. Has been raced at around 12f in the last months but now dropped back a couple of furlongs for this race. Campaigned in Class 4 and 5 company, off marks in and around 65. Is now back to just 61 and in Class 6, could go very close. After a couple of months off, returned at Kempton 19 days ago and finished 5th of 12 that day in this grade, off 62. Although that wasn't a fantastic run, it did record a good Topspeed figure and plugged on well over a trip too far. The track doesn't suit either and I think it will be better suited back at Wolverhampton. Jockey and stable both amongst the winners recently, and the combo looks in tip top form. Anything around 7's should be taken as I fancy this horse to return to the winners enclosure.

[JackJarvis]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Paul Doe is a clown, what the hell was he doing on that? From stall 1 aswell.... did he think the horse had wings!?!?!?!?