JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[Kanga]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Almost the same price for a betfair place on Annie's Answer as the win on Barber's Shop.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ANNIES ANSWER 1ST @ 7/2 SPECIAL ENVOY 1ST @ 11/8 [bACKED DOWN FROM 2/1] LEAD ON 2ND exacta paid £11.30 20 bets 11 winners 4 placed Profit = 155.07 pts to a 10pt stake Yield = 77.5%

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MULTICULTURAL 1ST @ 4/9F :clap BROUGHTON'S REVIVAL 3RD ' 14/1 :clap 21 BETS 12 WINNERS 4 PLACED PROFIT = 159.41PTS to a 10pt stake YEILD = 75.90%

[RussP]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done mate:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CURRAGH 3.55 1M GRP 3 STAKES

2006	Danehill Music (6)	3	8-7	10/1	David Wachman	W M Lordan	99
2005	Kitty O'Shea (1)	3	8-7	7/2	A P O´Brien	K Fallon	113
2004	Alexander Goldrun (2)	3	8-12	6/1	J S Bolger	K J Manning	102
2003	Wrong Key (2)	4	9-12	EvensF	Kevin Prendergast	K Fallon	103
2002	Tarifana (1)	3	8-7	5/2	John M Oxx	F M Berry	94

5 out of 5 won as a 2y-old. 3y-old have won 4 out of 5 runnings. Only 1 Fav has been successful. If we take the obvious route and concentrate on any 3 y-olds who won as a 2y-old we are left with LA CONQUISTADOR + SARICANA . The trainer-form for the Month in previous seasons could be the key here J.BOLGER [la conquistador] has had only 2 winners from 45 runners in the month of MARCH since 2002. J.OXX [saricana] ,however, has had 12 out of 38 in MARCH since 2002. Therefore the selection is SARICANA.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SERICANA UNP :eyes LA CONQISTADOR UNP :eyes [back down from 7/2 to 9/4f , someone lost a few bob on this one] 22 bets 12 winners 4 placed PROFIT = 149.41pts to a 10 pt level stake YIELD = 67.91%

[Kanga]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Was just the 1 selection JTW - Sericana ?

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Yeah mate , SERICANA was the selection .:( Just posted up LA CONQUISTADOR as he was well backed but finished 4th

[Kanga]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Was a good call again despite the result - I only mentioned it because you've put in it your running yield results as a double loss.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends DOH !!!!!!!!! Will amend at once

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nothing for Tues :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Still nothing at all so far this week; i'm ignoring the LINGFIELD meeting on THURSDAY transferred from DONCASTER as the obvious change from TURF to ALL WEATHER makes the previous race history invalid.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nothing for FRIDAY !!!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NOTHING FOR SAT !!:sad Not considering the KEMPTON meeting as it's only the 2nd time it's been run on the A/W.

[Kanga]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I'll take a non selection day over a pushing to find a winner any day !!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MONDAY -------- KELSO 2.50 2M NOV HURDLE

2006	Boulders Beach	6	11-0	8/13F	Mrs S J Smith	Dominic Elsworth	99
2005	Portavadie	6	11-0	11/2	J M Jefferson	G Lee	103
2004	Lucky Duck	7	10-9	9/1	Mrs A Hamilton	Fergus King	103
2003	Tribal Dispute	6	11-6	7/4J	T D Easterby	Russ Garritty	113
2002	Khan Kicker	6	11-6	8/11F	Ferdy Murphy	John McNamara	116
2000	Altapeter	5	11-0	33/1	P Beaumont	R Supple	105
1999	Chevalier Errant	6	11-0	2/5F	J R Adam	B Powell	102
1998	Premier Cru	6	11-0	EvensF	M Todhunter	P Carberry	100
1997	Jessolle	5	10-2	6/5F	G Richards	R Burns	97

0 out of 9 have carried a double penalty to victory. 7 out of 9 were in the top 3 in the betting. 8 out of 9 were aged 5 or 6y-old. All had ran at least once over Hurdles. 8 out of 9 had been placed in one of their previous 2 outings. All had ran LTO in Feb/March. Looking at the top 3 in the RP f/cast we have NELSON DU RONCERAY + SMART STREET at 2nd+ 3rd FAV and both carry double penalties. That leaves the FAV YOUNG ALBERT, who fits the bill with the exception that it last ran 158 days ago , However it has won twice , once FTO in a NH Flat race , then after a long break to win a Nov Hur so ,hopefully the break will not have inconvenienced it.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends YOUNG ALBERT 1ST @ 15/8F :loon [ opened 5/2] SMART STREET 2ND. 23 BETS 13 WINNERS 4 PLACED PROFIT = 168.16PTS TO 10 PT LEVEL STAKE YIELD = 73.11%

[gregprowt]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Hi JTW1 been following this for the last couple of bets, your record seems amazing:eek great winner again today

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers gregprowt :ok Hopefully another winner tomorrow but at prohibitive odds i fear. FOLKESTONE 4.50 7F MAIDEN 5 out of 6 winners were in the top 3 in the betting 4 were 3y-olds , 2 were 4y-olds. 1 debutant was successful. 5 out of 6 had ran between 2 to 3 times in the previous season. 4 out of those 5 last ran in OCT [ other was Sep] 4 out of 5 had been placed at least 2nd or 3rd LTO. With the B.HILLS stable hitting top form just now [ 3 maiden winners from since 29th March , the only horse to have had 2 previous runs [ 2nd, 2nd] the probable FAV and a 3y-old - THAABAT will take all the beating.

[gregprowt]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends yet another winner today:ok didnt get involved because of the price, but this thread certainley produces good results

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Likewise mate, a bit too short but will keep a track of the results anyway. 24 bets 14 winners 4 placed Profit = 171.80 pts to a 10 pt level stake. Yield = 71.58% Nothing for WEDS.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LEOPARDSTOWN 2.55 1000 GUINEAS TRIAL

2006	Kamarinskaya (6)	3	9-0	8/1	A P O´Brien	J A Heffernan	105
2005	Virginia Waters (3)	3	8-11	5/2	A P O´Brien	K Fallon	105
2004	Royal Tigress (4)	3	8-11	5/2J	A P O´Brien	Jamie Spencer	101
2003	Dimitrova (11)	3	9-0	7/4F	D K Weld	P J Smullen	108
2002	Lahinch (6)	3	8-13	7/4F	A P O´Brien	M J Kinane	104
2001	Rebelline (3)	3	8-10	7/2	Kevin Prendergast	D P McDonogh	109
2000	Amethyst (5)	3	8-10	11/8F	A P O´Brien	M J Kinane	108
1999	Show Me The Money (2)	3	9-1	7/2	Noel Meade	Richard Hughes	108
1998	Idle Rich (1)	3	8-9	3/1J	D K Weld	M J Kinane	91

8 out of 9 winners were 1st or 2nd FAV 8 out of 8 with a previous run had been placed 1st-3rd LTO. 8 out of 9 ran as a 2y-old 6 out of 8 who ran as a 2y-old, won as a 2y-old. 8 out of 8 who ran as a 2y-old had ran no later than OCT. 2 winners had ran as a 3y-old and one was a debutant. AP O'BRIEN has a record of 2 ,4 ,1, 2 , 1 , 2 ,1 , 1 , 1, 1. THEANN fits the bill - Trained by AP O'BRIEN , Ran as a 2y-old , won LTO , Ran LTO in OCT, Probobly will start as 2nd/3rd FAV. Also the previous 2 winners [both trained by O'BRIEN] had ran 2nd in the FLAME OF TARA STAKES at the CURRAGH. THEANN was 2nd in the FLAME OF TARA. LEOPARDSTOWN 4.00 2000 GUINEAS TRIAL AP O'BRIEN and D.WELD have won 6 out of the last 9 runnings. 5 Clear FAVS have won from 9 runnings [ no winners at double figures] 8 out of 9 had ran as 2y-olds 8 out of 9 had won as a 2y-old. 7 out of 9 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO. 7 out of 9 had ran between 2-4 times as a 2y-old. ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET to do the double for AP O'BRIEN.

[Aykay1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

24 bets 14 winners 4 placed Profit = 171.80 pts to a 10 pt level stake. Yield = 71.58%

Superb mate keep it up :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Just spent the best part of 40 mins typing out todays selctions and reasonings and on the last line something happened and they FECKIN' disappeared :wall so heres the VERY BASICS ! ALL at FAIRYHOUSE 2.15 SLYGUFF RORY 3.15 MONTANA BAY 3.50 URSIS 4.55 PARAMOUNT.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Disapointing day i'm afraid SLYGUFF RORY 4TH :eyes MONTANA BAY UNP :eyes URSIS 5TH :eyes PARAMOUNT 3RD @ 9/2 :\ 30 BETS 14 WINNERS 6 PLACED PROFIT = 111.80 PTS to a 10PT Stake YIELD = 37.26%

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FAIRYHOUSE 2.45 2M HURDLE

2006	Publican	6	11-9	9/4	P A Fahy	A P McCoy	115
2005	Tiger Cry	7	11-9	4/1	A L T Moore	D J Casey	124
2004	Dawn Invasion	5	11-8	4/1	Anthony Mullins	P Carberry	132
2003	Glenhaven Nugget	7	11-4	9/4	E J O´Grady	N Williamson	130
2002	Scottish Memories	6	11-3	4/1	Noel Meade	P Carberry	153
2001	Ned Kelly	5	11-11	4/7F	E J O´Grady	N Williamson	157
2000	Ross Moff	7	12-0	6/4F	A J Martin	P Carberry	140
1999	Cardinal Hill	5	11-7	4/11F	Noel Meade	P Carberry	141
1998	Unarmed	5	11-7	7/2	P Mullins	T P Treacy	130

9 out of 9 were FAV to 3rd FAV in the betting. 9 out of 9 were aged 5 - 7 y-old. 8 out of 9 ran their last race in Grade Company. 8 out of 9 were placed 1st - 3rd in one of their last 3 outings. 8 out of 9 had ran between 3 and 5 times that season. 8 out of 9 had ran their last race no later than Mid- MARCH. It all points to SCOTSIRISH who last ran in a Grade 1 at CHELT [March] , has ran 3 times this season , won it's 2nd last outing , should be in the top 3 in the betting and is a 6y-old.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thats better SCOTSIRISH 1ST @ 10/3 :loon

[kevsul]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice result there JTW.:clap

[Mighty Magyar]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Got 5/1 after reading your preview. :ok Cheers pal.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :cheers Well done MAGYAR . TUESDAY --------- PONTEFRACT 2.20 1M2F MEDIAN AUCTION STKS

2006	Hero Worship (4)	3	9-3	17/2	M A Jarvis	Philip Robinson	76
2005	Takhmin (4)	3	9-0	5/2F	M Johnston	R Hills	82
2004	Winged D'Argent (8)	3	9-0	11/2	M Johnston	Joe Fanning	71
2003	Gala Sunday (6)	3	9-0	2/9F	B W Hills	Richard Hughes	73
2002	In Disguise (4)	3	9-0	9/4	J L Dunlop	K Fallon	86
2001	Forest Tune (1)	3	9-0	9/1	B Hanbury	W Supple	87
2000	Inforapenny (1)	3	8-9	12/1	R A Fahey	Robert Winston	82

6 out of 7 winners were in the top 3 in the betting. 6 out of 7 were colts/geldings 6 out of 7 were trained in one of the top training areas. Out of the 4 non-debutant winners , ALL had been placed 1-4 in either of their last 2 runs. There are no debutants in Tuesday's renewal. M .JOHNSTON has a record of 2 wins, a 2nd and one unp in the last 4 runnings. SALAASA is the JOHNSTON entry tomorrow ,A COLT , it ran twice as a 2y-old and finished 2nd LTO. It will probably start at odds on unfortunatly. FAIRYHOUSE 3.15 Grade 2 Hurdle 9 out of 9 were 1st or 2nd FAV. 9 out of 9 were aged 5-7 yolds. 9 out of 9 were placed 1st or 2nd in at least on of their previous 3 outings. 9 out of 9 had ran no later than 44 days previously. 8 out of 9 had at least been placed at FAIRYHOUSE in any type of race. 8 out of 9 had ran between 2-6 times that season . 6 out of 9 had ran in a GRADED race at CHELT/AINT LTO. The potential FAV and selection is DE VALIRA , a 5y-old who last ran 28 days ago in a GRADE 1 event at CHELTENHAM and had won and been 2nd in his 2 races before that.He has winning form at FAIRYHOUSE and has raced 5 times this season.