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JTW1's Specialisation - Trends


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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends VALIANT SHADOW 1ST @ 13/2 :loon [ and for the record RUNTHATPASTMEAGAIN was 2nd ,JOHN FORBES 3rd and FIRST FEERIE 4th] FIDDLE 1ST @ 6/5F :loon FAV to follow - 3rd :eyes A nice start to CHELTENHAM week if i say so myself :nana

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

VALIANT SHADOW 1ST @ 13/2 :loon [ and for the record RUNTHATPASTMEAGAIN was 2nd ' date=JOHN FORBES 3rd and FIRST FEERIE 4th] FIDDLE 1ST @ 6/5F :loon FAV to follow - 3rd :eyes A nice start to CHELTENHAM week if i say so myself :nana
Awesome stuff mate:cow
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thanks again RUSS :ok MONDAY --------- PLUMPTON 3.00

2005 Valley Ride 5 11-8 9/4 C Tinkler Tom Doyle 126
2004 Nathos 7 11-7 8/11F C J Mann S J Craine 119
2003 Mister Putt 5 11-8 10/1 Mrs N Smith Barry Fenton 121
2002 General 5 11-9 5/4F Mrs N Smith Colin Bolger 123
2001 Ambry 4 10-8 EvensF G L Moore Barry Fenton 94
2000 Arawak Prince 4 10-8 6/1 D G Bridgwater E Husband 107
Interesting that 4Y-OLDS won the first 2 runnings but after that there have only been 2 of that age group entered in the last 4 runnings [ both unp]. 5 out of 6 were placed 1st - 4th in their last NH race before this. The other was 5th but in a GRADE 2 event . All had ran their last race before 2nd FEB. 5 out of 6 were in the top 3 in the betting. All had at least 1 run over hurdles [only 1 had ran more than 4 times] As the F/cast FAV + 2ND FAV at 8/11 and 11/8 [with the 3rd fav being 25/1] we can assume this should be a 2 horse race. MON MICHEL is the FAV , a 4y-old who has had 3 outings and ran 10 days ago when 2nd . 2nd FAV ENLIGHTENMENT last ran 142 days ago. TAUNTON 2.10 2m1f SELLING HURDLE. NOBLE BILLY represents the PIPE stable here which has a record of 3 , 2 , 1 , 4 , 1 , pu ,1. 5 FAVS [either clear or joint ] have won from 9 runnings. Unfortunately NOBLE BILLY is forecast to start at odds of 1/3 and it's hard to see it being beaten.
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MON MICHEL 2ND @ 8/11F [Place = £1.10] Knew the fate of this one about 9.00 this morning when i found out that it was one of THOMMO'S tips for today :wall Race won by ENLIGHTENMENT @ 5/4 NOBLE BILLY 1ST @ 4/11F SOUTHWELL 5.05 6F MAIDEN 7 out of 8 won by a 3y-old 7 out of 8 won by a colt/gelding. 7 out 8 won by horse in top 4 int the betting All won by a horse drawn in the top half of the draw 6 out of 8 had ran at least once that A/W season All of those 6 had been placed 2nd or 3rd in either of their last 2 outings. 5 of those 6 had ran LTO in Feb/ Mar. CAPTAIN JACKSPARRA fits all the criteria for the 6f MAIDEN at Southwell on TUESDAY but at forecast odds of 4/11fav it makes little appeal. CHELTENHAM - I see no point in putting down the same stats that BOWLES ,JONESY KNOWS have already given in their Chelt threads so if you want the trends for the big meeting please visit them , i will concentrate on the minor meetings this week.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CAPTAIN JACKSPARRA 1ST @ 2/9F ;) HUNTINGDON 5.05 2M4F NOV CH 5 out of 10 previous winners started FAV 9 out of 10 were in the top 3 in the betting. 8 out of 10 had won a NOV CHASE during the season. 10 out of 10 had ran between 3-6 times during the season. 9 out of 10 had their last run no later than 24 Jan. 8 out of 10 had finished 1st,2nd or 3rd in either of their last 2 outings Out of the first 3 in the betting we will discount ALFIES SUN as it has ran only once this season when it finished 5th. That leaves the FAV HENRY'S PRIDE and 2nd FAV GLIMMER OF LIGHT Both have won a NOV CH , HENRYS PRIDE has had 3 runs finishing 3rd LTO, while GLIMMER has ran 5 times winning the time before last. Both ran recently. Trainer-wise R LEE has a record of 30% in Hurdles at HUNTINGDON and jockey DURACK has a strikr rate of 19% for the trainer. BROOKSHAW has not a runner at the course for at least 5 seasons and Jockey KINSELLA has won 2 from 4 runs for the trainer. So i'm looking at the going to decide things HENRY'S PRIDE has ran nearly all his races on SFT/ HVY [did place on G/S in a NH FLAT] and over greater distances GLIMMER OF LIGHT seems to prefer G/S or GD going and hopefully can stay the distance.So very narrowly gets the nod. HUNTINGDON 5.50 2M NH FLAT 5 winners from 10 were outright FAV 8 out of 10 were in the top 3 of the betting 9 out of 10 were aged 4 or 5. 7 out of 10 had ran at least once that season and had been placed at least 1st or 2nd during the season. 3 were debutants. The REVELEY stable have a great record at HUNTINGDON and have won 3 NH FLAT races from 8 attempts. They won this event in 1997 and have had 2 other runnuners in this , one was 6th beaten only 5+1/2 lengths , the other 5th beaten only 3+1/4 lengths. IT'S TEESCOMPONENTS represents the stable here and is the selection.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HEXHAM 2.50 HOV CHASE

2003 Fred's In The Know 8 11-7 4/9F N Waggott Anthony Coyle 114
2002 Premier Drive 9 12-0 4/7F G M Moore Russ Garritty 117
2000 Lambrini Gold 6 11-0 11/4F D McCain S Wynne 110
1999 Charnwood Jack 6 11-3 4/5F M Todhunter Brian Harding 100
1998 Purevalue 7 11-10 15/8J M W Easterby E Callaghan 118
1997 Rallegio 8 11-10 10/11F P Monteith G Cahill 106
A FAVS benevolent fund with 5 CLEAR and 1JT from 6. Age range is 6-9 , although only 1 Five y-old has ran in 6 runnings so not conclusive. All 6 ran between 3 and 7 races that season. 5 out of 6 were placed LTO . All ran LTO in Feb/Mar. 4 out of 6 had won a NOV CHASE that season. We have joint FAVS according to the RP - ECHO POINT + LANKANI . Both fit the criteria so it's to the trainer-form we look at. P.BOWEN has had 10 runners in the last 14 days with only 1 placing [3rd] and none of the others finishing more than half way up the field. N.RICHARDS has had 9 runners in that period with 1 win + 5 placings . So it's ECHO POINT that gets the nod.
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FAKENHAM 1.45 + 5.30 2 DIVISIONS OF THE 2M MAIDEN HURDLE.

2006 Toparudi 5 11-2 4/1 M H Tompkins Colin Bolger 102
2005 Ma Yahab 4 10-6 100/30 Miss Venetia Williams Alan O'Keeffe 99
2005 Tignasse 4 9-10 100/30 G L Moore Eamon Dehdashti 84
2004 Mister Arjay 4 10-6 9/4F B Ellison V T Keane 97
2003 Rainbow River 5 11-2 9/4F M C Chapman Lee Vickers 110
2002 Leatherback 4 10-8 5/4F N A Callaghan Tom Scudamore 109
2000 Broke Road 4 11-0 9/4 Mrs V C Ward John McNamara 98
1998 Assailable 4 11-0 2/5F N A Callaghan Mickey Brennan 110
1997 Florid 6 11-8 3/1 C P E Brooks M Berry 135
9 out of 9 had ran at least once that season 9 out of 9 were 1st /2nd FAV. 9 out of 9 had ran no later that 12th Jan. 8 out of 9 were placed 2nd/3rd in at least one of their previous runs. 7 out of 9 had won at least once on the Flat/AW. 6 winners were aged 4y-old , the others were 2x5y-old + 1x 6y-old. 1.45 - FAV = KEW GREEN - Not ran over NH rules , + a 9y-old. 2nd F = DUNASKIN - Debutant + 7y-old. 3rd F = PEACOCK - Has ran twice , 3rd LTO , ran 14 days ago ,is a 4y-old and although it has not won a flat race it was only beaten a 1/2 length into a 2nd place. 5.30 - FAV = DOCTOR DAVID - Not ran for 79 days 2nd F = WILLIAM JOHN - Ran once over Nh rules finishing 2nd , is a 4y-old , last ran 24 days ago and has won on the Flat.
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends OK I will really try to keep a record of the selections posted on here and if i may i'll start from where i mean to keep going from and thats last Sat , concentrating on NON-HANDICAP races . RESULTS - RAMBLING LIGHT 1ST @ 7/1 VALIANT SHADOW 1ST @ 11/2 PEACOCK 1ST @ 9/4 FIDDLE 1ST @ 6/5 NOBLE BILLY 1ST @ 4/11 CAPTAIN JACKSPARRA 1ST @ 2/9 placed GLIMMER OF LIGHT 2ND @ 7/1 MIZZLE 2ND @ 4/1 MON MICHEL 2ND @ 8/11 unplaced SODENTAY IT'S TEESCOMPONENTS ECHO POINT WILLIAM JOHN. 13 BETS 6 WINS 3 PLACED Strike rate 6/13 Yield = ? Profit = 95.30pts to a 10 pt level stake I know i've asked this before but what is the formula for yield please?

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NEWCASTLE 4.05 2M NOV HURDLE

2006 Tous Chez 7 11-0 2/1F Mrs S J Smith Padge Whelan 109
2005 Fair Spin 5 11-0 7/1 Micky Hammond Barry Keniry 104
2004 Merryvale Man 7 10-7 16/1 Miss Kariana Key Declan McGann 120
2003 Temple Dog 7 12-0 8/13F T P Tate Richard Guest 125
2002 Lord Transcend 5 11-0 33/1 J Howard Johnson A S Smith 99
2000 Time Of Flight 7 11-1 10/1 Mrs M Reveley P Niven 110
1999 Camtex Capers 7 10-11 14/1 Mrs S J Smith R Wilkinson 96
1998 Wynyard Knight 6 11-2 6/4F Mrs M Reveley P Niven 107
1997 Far Ahead 5 11-8 4/1 J L Eyre B Storey 122
9 out of 9 runnings were won by 5-7y-old. 8 out of 9 were down to carry at least 11-00. 8 out of 9 had ran at least twice over Hurdles. 8 out of 9 had finished 1st-4th in one of it's last 3 previous races. Only 3 FAVS have won but 4 runnings have taken place on HEAVY ground resulting in 33/1,16/1,7/1 + 2/1f . So concentrate on the top 3 in the betting as it's forecast good going . LESLINGTAYLOR may not be a great price but it stands out TRENDS wise in this event.
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CARLISLE 4.40 NH FLAT 2M 1F 5 out of 8 FAVS have won. 7 out of 8 were in the top 4 in the betting. 7 out of 8 had ran 1 or 2 NH races that season. 6 out of that 7 had been placed [1st,2nd or 3rd] 5 out of that 7 had last ran in Feb. 5 horses carrying a penalty for a previous win , have tried and failed to win this. The probable FAV CAST IRON CASEY has ran once and won that race but as a result carries a penalty in this ,so he is discounted. Jt 3rd FAV = ONEFORSATURDAY has ran oce but was unp and was 102 days previous. That leaves 3rdFAV BANOGE + 2ndFAV HARRY WOOD who won a 1m6f NH Flat race here in Mid-FEB but as that was a Cond event he does not get a penalty. BANOGE comes from L.LUNGO'S stable about who i'm still not convinced is firing properly yet , despite a NH Flat winner last SAT. FONTWELL 2.50 2M2F NOV HURDLE The main stat is the fact that 9 out of 9 were in the first 3 in the betting. 7 out of 9 were aged 6 or 7. Betting-wise this would appear to be match between SEISMIC SHIFT from H.KNIGHT'S out of form stable [only 1 win from 16th FEB] and PRESENTANDCORRECT from P.HOBB'S yard which has had 9 winners in the same period.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends PRESENTANDCORRECT 1ST @ 8/11 FAV :clap [seismic shift 2nd] HARRY WOOD 1ST @ 15/8 FAV :clap [banoge 2nd @ 7/1] 16 BETS 9 WINS 3 PLACED Strike rate 9/16 Yield = 78.9% [i think ?] Profit = 126.32 pts to a 10 pt level stake

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LUDLOW 5.00 2M NH Flat

2006 Risk Challenge 4 10-11 33/1 C J Price Wayne Hutchinson 106
2005 My Skipper 4 10-11 15/8F Miss H C Knight J Culloty 110
2004 State Of Play 4 10-11 9/4 P R Webber Tom Doyle 94
2003 Golden Nougat 5 11-4 3/1 L Wells Mattie Batchelor 99
2002 Old Bean 6 11-4 7/4 N J Henderson Mick Fitzgerald 104
2000 Solway Dawn 5 11-6 5/6F Jonjo O´Neill Richard McGrath 102
1999 Roller Blade 5 11-4 20/1 N A Twiston-Davies Carl Llewellyn 115
1998 Commanche Law 5 11-4 3/1 K C Bailey N Williamson 100
1997 Mayday Lauren 5 10-13 5/1 A Bailey S Wynne 86
4 + 5Y olds have won 8 out of 9 with the last 3 being won by a 4y-old carrying 10-11. 7 out of 9 have been in the top 3 in the betting ; however only 2 clear favs [ btn favs have ranged fron 4/9 to 7/4] 6/9 winners were making their debut. Goning by the RP betting forecast this would appear to be between the FAV VAL DU CIRON and 2nd FAV TARA QUEEN. POSITIVES for VAL DU CIRON - Makes his debut at a course where his trainer has an 18% straike rate in NH Flat races. Mrs Knight has had 2 runners in this event with a winner and a 2nd . I s the only 4 y-old ,carrying 10-11. NEGATIVES - Trainer has not had a winner in the last 14 days and the winners usually start to dry up from her stable at this time of the year. Is the FAV [so far] POSITIVES FOR TARA QUEEN - C LLEWELLYN has a record of 11 wins from only 49 runners in NH Flat in his short training career. The winner of her previous bumper at FONTWELL ran in the CHELT bumpers race where he was carried out wide at one stage and unlucky not to finish further up the field 12th beaten only 16l. The 2nd at FONTWELL went on to finish 4th in the Mares final bumper race [listED] at SANDOWN. Stable has had winners in the last 14 days. Is 2nd FAV . NEGATIVES - Has had 2 previous runs , though with 3 other winners if this having previously ran , not a great problem. A very tricky decision but going to go for TARA QUEEN due to current trainer-form , the form of her previous race and LLEWELLYN'S better overall record in these events ,11/49 compared to KNIGHT'S 19/148.
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1st - VAL DU CIRON @ 4/5 F :$ 3RD - TARA QUEEN @ 9/2 :( [place = £1.20] FRIDAY - NEWBURY 2.40 2M 5F MAIDEN HURDLE Age range - 4 x 5y-olds , 4 x 6y-olds + 2 x 7y-olds from 10 runnings. 8 out of 10 were in the top 4 in the betting. 9 out of 10 had ran between 1-3 hurdle races that season. 9 out of 10 had been placed between 2nd - 4th in either of their last 2 races. 6 out of the last 10 [inc last 3 winners] had last ran in either FEB/MAR 7 y-olds priced under 10/1 have a record of 5th,4th,3rd,1st. Despite only having 25 runners from 142 entries , 7-yolds have won 2 and been placed 4 times. The only horse from the top 4 in the betting i can safely discout is the 4th FAV HILLS OF ARAN who has ran 9 times already this season. That leaves [ in betting f/cast order] CARLITOS , GAUVAIN + BOOMSHAKALAKA. BOOMSHAKALKA gets the speculative nod , being a 7-old that will probobly start under 10/1 and last ran on 15th Feb .

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Was a great breakdown nonetheless - a choice of 2 and the wrong one picked - was very strange though Tara's Queen drifted dramatically from 2/1 fav in the morning to 9/2 somebody knew something.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Need i say more !! , picked the wrong one from 4 this time KANGA :wall

1 Carlitos 11-2 A P McCoy N A Twiston-Davies 5 11/10 f
2 5 Gauvain (GER) 11-2 N Fehily C J Mann 5 8/1
3 2 Hills Of Aran 11-2 G Lee W K Goldsworthy 5 11/4
BOOMSHAKALAK was unplaced , drifted to 12/1 after opening at 8's. Again one of the drawbacks of relying on RP forecast's and not the actual SP is not seeing the drifters + movers which can make all the difference to the selection process , but that's the problem of having to post the night before :eyes
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Don't really want to just pick FAVS all the time , although i do realise that the majority of picks here will be FAV as the SP's are the usually the main starting point for me. Here's SATURDAYS TRENDS NEWBURY 4.05 2M NOV HUR 6 out of 6 won by the top 3 in the betting. 5 out of 6 had at least 2 runs that season. All had won or been placed in at least one run. All LTO in Feb / Mar. 4 out of 6 were carrying a penalty [ one beaten pen carrier was unlucky when falling 2 out when making a strong challenge and the only other pen carrier int hat race finished 2nd @ 10/1] 6y-olds have won 3 out of 6 runnings P HOBBS has a record of 1 , 3 , 4 , unp. If we concentrate on the 3 penalty and then bring in the probable odds we are left with the HOBB'S trained LEAD ON and SPECIAL ENVOY. BANGOR 2.45 2M1F NOV HUR Age not conclusive . 9 out of 9 were in the top 3 in the betting. 8 out of 9 had last ran in MARCH [ other was 28th Feb] 9 out of 9 had ran between 2-6 times that season. 7 out of 9 had ran 3-5 times. 7 out of 9 had won a race over NH rules in that season. 9 out of 9 had been placed. Looking at the top 4 in the RP f/cast we have BARBERS SHOP [ last ran 19th Feb ?] ANNIES ANSWER [ last ran 22nd Feb ] KEDGEREE [ never won] KING MAK [ 100/1 winner LTO] Basically they all fit the stats with any doubts in brackets.But i'm tempted to concentrate on the first two. WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30 1M1F MAIDEN 9 out of 9 in the top 2 in the betting 7 out of 9 had ran at least once on the AW that season. 7 out of that 7 had ran no worse that 5th in their best run. 6 out of that 7 ran no later than 26th Feb. 3y-old have won 4 runnings as have 4y-olds. This looks like one for the Fav here with MULTICULTURAL nearly fitting all the stats [last ran 17th Feb] An interesting outsider is BROUGHTONS REVIVAL who is the only other horse to fit the stats except for it's odds of 16/1. It caught the RP'S reporters eye LTO when 5th and running on. I will decide on the main selection for the other 2 races later on.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good morning !! Going for SPECIAL ENVOY at NEWBURY - seems to be a class above LEAD ON after his 7th [btn 11l] in the SUPREME NOV at Chelt. ANNIES ANSWER is the pick at BANGOR , nothing between them on the stats so we'll go for the odds .

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GL MAGYAR :hope Noticed something while picking my Scoop 6 and thats CLIVE BRITTAIN'S record in the 2.40 @ LINGFIELD. It has been competed for 4 times and his runners have finished - 1st 8/1 , 3rd 12/1 , 1st 4/1 and 2nd at 10/1. Unfortunately just to confuse the issue he has 2 entered today FARES + MASTERSHIP keep an eye out on them :ok

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