JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends DUC DE REGNIERE 1ST @ 11/8F :clap OCEANOS DES OBEAUX UNP :( TWILIGHT AVENGER 3RD @ 28/1 :eek MACHINATE UNP :( WOLVES 2.10 FAV - 2ND :nana

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NEWBURY 3.50 - Grade 2 Chase

2005	Azertyuiop	8	11-10	11/10F	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	179
2004	Azertyuiop	7	11-5	4/11F	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	166
2003	Kadarann	6	11-4	5/1	P F Nicholls	Joe Tizzard	166
2002	Lady Cricket	8	11-1	15/8	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	163
2001	Function Dream	9	11-3	7/4	Mrs M Reveley	Anthony Ross	159
2000	Flagship Uberalles	6	11-13	1/4F	P F Nicholls	Joe Tizzard	167
1999	Celibate	8	11-3	7/2	C J Mann	Mick Fitzgerald	157
1998	Ask Tom	9	11-10	13/8F	T P Tate	Russ Garritty	166
1997	Double Symphony	9	10-12	4/5F	C P E Brooks	J Osborne	145

9 out of 9 were aged 6-9y old. 9 out of 9 finished 1st - 3rd LTO. 8 out of 9 had ran between 1-3 races that season. 8 out of 9 were 1st or 2nd Favs. P Nichols has a record of 3,1,2,1,1,1. The 2 NICHOLS horses are out of the top 3 in the betting and one is a 10 y-old so we'll ignore his runners in this renewal. VOY POR ESTEDES - Ran twice this season , won LTO, 2nd FAV and a 6y-old ASHLEY BROOK - Ran once this season and won , FAV and a 9 y-old. Take your pick !!! WARWICK 2.20 - Pretty straight forward here with OPERA MUNDI representing the P.NICHOLS stable who has a record of 1,1,2,1,1 in the last 5 seasons. 5 out of 6 winners were FAV. 6out of 6 were aged 5-7y-old. FAVS to follow - 1.35 Newb - 5 clear , 1 jt from 9. 3.50 Newb - 5 from 9. 2.20 Leop - 8 from 10 FAVS to avoid - 4.50 Newb 0/6 4.20 Newb 1/6

[Werdnatrebor]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends just to say , been following your selections for a while JT...... and have made good money,thanks for your hard work, much appreciated.:)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers mate :ok , not a great day , not bad but not great. WARWICK ABND VOY POR ESTEDES FELL ASHLEY BROOK 2ND @ 9/4F FAVS to follow - 1.35 newb - 1st @ 1/3 ;) 2.20 leop - 1st @ 4/6 ;) 3.50 newb - 2nd :( FAVS to avoid - 4.20 newb - 2nd @ 4/6 ;) 4.50 newb - 1st @ 15/8 jt fav :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FAV to avoid - WOLVES 9.00 - 0/6

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends WOLVES 9.00 FAV - 1ST @ 7/2 :sad NAAS -1.55 -MAIDEN HURDLE

2006	Sir Overbury	5	11-12	2/1F	Daniel O´Connell	D J Casey	114
2005	Pom Flyer	5	10-11	13/8F	F Flood	K T Coleman	119
2004	Hardy Duckett	5	10-11	6/4F	D T Hughes	P W Flood	119
2003	Smuggler's Song	4	11-5	5/4F	C Roche	C F Swan	119

Only 4 runnings , so not perfect for finding trends but a quick glance reveals a favourable race for the market leader , 4 out of 4 favs is quite a resonable stat. Don't let the size of the field put you off , all 4 previous runnings had 25 runners. ALL had had at least one run over Hurdles and were placed between 2nd -5th. At the time of posting GLOBAL TRUCKER is FAV on BETFAIR , only 1/2 a point ahead of CHALISON in 2nd FAV position . Follow whoever ends up FAV .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends They both went off as JT-FAVS aand finished out of the frame :(

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nothing for Monday

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nothing for Tuesday

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Lingfield 2.50 - G.L.MOORE has an interesting record in this 2m H'cap 2 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 2 , 4 , 6 , 4 since 1999 . However the first placings were achieved with the same horse so that may skew the figures. NAWAMEES is one of 2 entries he has tomorrow and this one finished a 2l 4th in the 2004 running. Only 1 win in 9 has been won by a horse carrying under 8-12 so that's enough to discount his other runner who carries 8-08 FAV to avoid - MUSS 4.00 1/9

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Something to consider that i've found on the ATTHERACES website from HUGH TAYLORS trends section about GL MOORE'S record at LINGFIELD in FEB. --------------------------------------------------------------- Backing all runners from the stable at Lingfield in February since the Polytrack has been laid would have produced 23 winners from 147 runs and a profit of 69.28 points. However, the runners to concentrate on are those at 1m2f and above. At under 1m2f, Moore’s Lingfield February record is modest — just 4 wins from 41 runs and a loss of 16.25 points. However, at 1m2f or more, the yard has been hugely successful in February - 19 wins from 106 runs and a profit of 85.53 points. There wasn’t a freakish 100-1 winner to create these stats (biggest-priced winner was 25-1). Keep an eye open for Moore’s runners at 1m2f or more at the Surrey venue this month. ----------------------------------------------------------------

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NAWAMEES 3RD @ 6/1 :\ Paid an amazing £3.10 for a place on the TOTE

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nothing of any note on Thursday. As from FRIDAY i shall try to keep a daily note of how the selections are doing with respect to PROFIT/LOSS , YIELD etc so we acn get a true picture of how we're doing . I shall separate the A.W from the Jumps results and also keep a running total of how the FAVS to avoid / follow are doing.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I'M BACK !!!!!!!!!!! With no thanks to AOL , who cut my broadband connection by mistake and took 2 weeks to get me re-connected . I will post tomorrows TREND selections here later on .

[Werdnatrebor]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Great to have you back JT, with this excellent thread, my bank balance has taken a hammering during your absence mainly due to having to settle for inferior betting advice and my gambling compulsion!:D

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Lets keep :hope for these two . NEWBURY 4.20 2M H'CAP HURDLE

2006	Wellbeing	9	11-2	100/30	P J Hobbs	Richard Johnson	123
2005	Nanga Parbat	4	10-13	9/2	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	100
2004	Wakeup Smiling	6	11-3	25/1	Miss E C Lavelle	Barry Fenton	110
2003	Bolshoi Ballet	5	10-3	8/1	J Mackie	Noel Fehily	105
2002	Maceo	8	10-7	5/1	Mrs M Reveley	Paddy Aspell	112
2000	Zabari	7	10-4	5/1	N J Henderson	Mick Fitzgerald	123
1999	Heart	6	11-5	8/1	Miss H C Knight	Mattie Batchelor	120
1998	Ken Risk	6	11-5	4/1	M C Pipe	Jamie Evans	117
1997	The Brewmaster	5	10-9	7/1		Philip Hide	99

9 out of 9 carried under 11-5 8 out of 9 were single figures in the betting. 8 out of 9 were aged 4-8y-old. 8 out of 9 finished either 1,2,3 or 4 in either of it's last two outings. As you can see , it's usually one of the TOP TRAINERS that take this prize. 4 y-olds ,despite winning only once , have a fairly decent record with that 1 win , three 2nds and a 3rd from only 12 runners in the past 9 runnings. AMIR EL JABAL manages to fit all the above . He carries 11-4 ; is 13/2 in the betting and is a 4 y-old. Add on the fact that he's from the PIPE yard and all the pieces fit. KELSO 2.50 JUV NOV HURDLE An outstanding record for the fancied horses in this race with 5 clear FAVS and a 2ND FAV winning from the last 7 runnings. P MONTEITH has won this for the past 3 season's and has an entry tomorrow , but at 50/1 i doubt he'll make it 4. An other interesting fact is that ALL the previous 7 winners had ran no more than 3 times that season , which count's out the RP F/cast FAV CARRIETAUL as this will be his 8th outing so far. SOLITARY PALM is 2nd FAV and with the next best being 7/1 and the fact that this will be only his 3rd run this season he is lumbered with the selection. As from SATURDAY 3RD , each main selection , e.g those in bold type , that the trends system selects with carry a 10pt win stake . This will enable us to find out if a profit can be made from following the 'TRENDS' So that means that we have a 10pt win on both AMIR EL JABAL + SOLITARY PALM.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SOLITARY PALM 2ND @ 4/1 AMIR EL JABAL UNP @ 18/1 Thought SOLITARY PALM was a winner as it jumped the last in front but ran out of puff up the Kelso hill . When i seen AMIR EL JABAL drifting out so badly i knew it was all over before it began and only had a very small bet . Back with SUNDAYS picks + totals later

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LEOPARDSTOWN 2.00 2M4F MAIDEN HURDLE

2006	Mister Top Notch	7	11-12	8/11F	D E Fitzgerald	B J Geraghty	123
2005	Slim Pickings	6	11-12	11/8F	Robert Tyner	D N Russell	113
2004	Point Barrow	6	11-12	11/4	P Hughes	Timmy Murphy	111
2003	Tandys Bridge	7	11-12	EvensF	Noel Meade	P Carberry	118
2002	Nearly A Moose	6	12-0	10/1	Denis P Murphy	J L Cullen	110

5 out of 5 winners were 6/7 y-olds 4 out of 5 winners were 1st or 2nd Fav. 4 out of 5 carried 11-12 All had ran between 2 - 6 times that season and had been placed at least once. GOLDEN EMPIRE meets all the criteria. FAVS to avoid - BANGOR 3.50 1/7 FAVS to follow - LEO 2.30 4/5

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Fav to avoid 3.50 BANGOR - 1ST @11/4 :cry MONDAY - FAV TO FOLLOW 4.10 HEREFORD 4 out of the last 7

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2 BETS WINS = 0 LOSS = 20PTS NON H'CAP PICKS = 2nd HANDICAP PICKS = O As an aside i'm going to keep a track of a PLACE ONLY bet of 10pts to TOTE returns , as there seems to be a fairly healthy amount of selections finish in a place pay-out. SOLITARY PALM 2nd - Returned 17pts for a place EMIR AL JABAL UNP - Loss 10PTS PLACE BET loss = 3pts FAVS to avoid = 0/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :hope EXETER can survive the weather on Tuesday. 3.20 - 3m6f HANDICAP CHASE

2006	Earl's Kitchen	9	10-12	9/1	C L Tizzard	Joe Tizzard	121
2005	Toulouse-Lautrec	9	11-4	9/1	T R George	Jason Maguire	124
2004	Twisted Logic	11	11-0	10/1	R H Alner	Robert Walford	125
2003	Spanish Main	9	10-6	12/1	N A Twiston-Davies	Carl Llewellyn	111
2002	Mister One	11	12-0	10/1	C L Tizzard	Joe Tizzard	138
2000	Samlee	11	11-9	11/1	P J Hobbs	A P McCoy	137
1999	Gigi Beach	8	11-2	10/1	P F Nicholls	Joe Tizzard	120
1998	Workingforpeanuts	8	10-0	4/1	C A Smith	Vince Slattery	108

8 out of 8 were aged 8-11y-0ld. 7 out of 8 carried at least 10-6 or above. NO FAV in 8 runnings has won. 7 out of 8 had at least one run since New Year with 6 of those being placed at least once. 7 out of 8 had won over at least 26f in their career. No Novice has won in 8. Apply all of the above and we're left with 2 to consider; last years winner EARL'S KITCHEN who has only had 2 outings so far this season [pulled-up in both] , compared to 5 outings at this stage last season. VICTORY GUNNER on the other hand fits ALL the above and when we look at his record in Races of at least 26 Furlongs in either SOFT/HEAVY going - 1ST , PU , 3RD , 4TH [18 ran] , 1ST + 4TH , it surely must have a great chance of a place at least.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends EXETER ABANDONED :eyes WEDS ----- LINGFIELD 2.00 1m4f Claiming Stakes

2006	Champagne Shadow (2)	5	9-5	4/5F	G L Moore	George Baker	67
2005	Mad Carew (8)	6	9-4	5/2F	G L Moore	J-P Guillambert	78
2004	Miss Koen (3)	5	8-3	33/1	D L Williams	Dean Corby	51
2003	Gemi Bed (1)	8	8-8	4/1	G L Moore	Ryan Moore	55
2002	White Plains (3)	9	9-3	2/1F	T D Barron	Darryll Holland	57
2001	Imprevue (1)	7	9-2	11/8F	R J O´Sullivan	Micky Fenton	65
2000	Night City (1)	9	9-7	5/2	K R Burke	N Callan	68

A simple one here and it's that man G L MOORE nad his record in this event that catches the eye. 3 wins from the last 4 and reading the report from the RP very unlucky not to have been 4 / 4 as the 4th in 2004 made his run with a furlong to go but got trapped on the rails and couldn't get out , eventually beaten only one and a quarter lengths into 4th. MONETS MASTERPIECE is his entry tomorrow and is priced at 5/1 in the RP CATTERICK 2.20 Selling Hurdle 8 out of 8 have been returned at single figures [last 6 either fav or 2nd fav] For 6 of the last 8 winners this was their first run in selling class over the jumps [ the other 2 had ran only once in a seller] No winner has been aged over 8 y-old. 7 out of 8 had won at least 1 race on either the Flat or NH , but none had won more than 2 NH races. 7 out of 8 had ran in MAR/ FEB LTO [the other had last ran on 27 Jan] Looking at the Racing Post's Forecast odds we are looking at 3 with chances MR EX I'M LONING IT SUSIEDIL. With the forecast HEAVY going probobly not going to suit the first 2 the latter finished 3rd over C/D on Heavy 7 days ago so earns the Nap . PROVIDING THE ODDS ARE 10/1 OR UNDER

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well SUSIEDIL did start under 10/1 [17/2 to be precise ] but could only finish 6th. MR EX 2ND [paid £1.60 a place] I'M LOVING IT -UNP 5 bets 0 wins loss = 50 pts place = -11pts THURSDAY ---------- 2.10 WINCANTON 2M MAIDEN HURDLE 9 out of 10 were in the top 3 in the betting [ 8 were 1st or 2nd fav] 9 out of 10 were aged 4-5 y-old . 9 out of 10 had ran at least once over NH rules [ no more than 3 though] . All had not finished worse than half way down the field in their last run. 7 out of 9 that had had a run last ran in FEB. That all narrows the field down to 2 - GAUVAIN - FAV , 5 y-old , 1 previous run [3rd] in FEB OCEAN PRIDE - 3rd Fav ,4y-old , 1 run [2nd] in FEB The NAP narrowly goes to the FAV GAUVAIN as 5 y-olds have taken 5 from the last 6 runnings. FAVS to avoid - WINC 2.40 0/9 WINC 3.50 1/9 WINC 4.25 1/9

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GAUVAIN 2ND @ 5/4F Place returns = £1.10 OCEAN PRIDE 3RD @ 5/1 Place returns = £2.00 Favs to avoid 2.40 WINC - UNP :clap 3.50 WINC - 2ND :clap 4.25 WINC - 1ST @ 5/4 :eyes FRIDAY -------- AYR 4.10 2M Maiden Hurdle 7 out of 8 win by top 3 in the betting. All had run at least twice over NH rules. All had at least one run in a NH Flat race. 7 out of 8 had Hurdle experience. Looking at the first 3 in the RP F/cast thers not a great deal to separate them as the FAV MR GUPPY has no Hurdle experience , whereas the 2nd + 3rd FAVS FRANKIE FIGG + RECKLESS VENTURE have never ran in a NH flat race. FRANKIE FIGG gets the NAP due to the record of his Trainer Howard Johnston in HURDLES at AYR [31%] and the fact that imo experience is everything over jumps. FAV TO AVOID - AYR 3.00 1/9 FAV TO FOLLOW - SAND 4.25 4 clear + 1 jt from 6.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FRANKIE FIGG 2ND @ 11/2 . PLACE = £2.00 RECKLESS VENTURE 3RD @ 5/1. PLACE = £2.10 Fav to avoid - 1st @ 5/2 :eyes SATURDAY ---------- WOLVES 1.50 + 5.10 2 Divisions of the 9f MAIDEN. 7 runnings won by 4 FAVS , 2X 2ND FAV + 1X 3RD FAV. GELDINGS /COLTS won 5 , FILLIES won 2. M. JOHNSTON won TWICE, M. CHANNON once. 2 were making their racecourse debuts. 4 had ran at least twice on A/W - FLAT. [ 3 no more than twice] 1 was making it's A/W debut. None that had a previous run had been placed worse than 5th LTO. SUMMARY - 1.50 The first 3 in the betting are ELYAADI [CHANNON] but has only ran once and that was 141 days ago. ART PROFESSOR is 3rd FAV but again has only one run to his name. RAMBLING LIGHT is a Gelding that has ran twice , finishing 2nd LTO , is 2nd FAV and also his Trainer has had 3 places from 4 runners inthe last 2 weeks. 5.10 - The forecast FAV is RIDGEWELL who last ran 49 days ago , 2nd FAV CRY PRESTO will be having his 9th run so far which leaves the 3rd FAV MIZZLE as the choice in this division. It's trained by M JOHNSTON , had 3 runs [2 on the A/W] in which it finished 4th LTO only 12 days ago. Maybe clutching at straws with this one but a look at the 5.30 at AYR reveals a couple of interesting stats. Only 1 fav in 9 [3 at double figures ] has been successful and 8 out of 9 were making their debuts. Len Lungo trains the FAV but his stable looks out of form at the moment. SODANTAY makes his debut here at decent odds and with his trainer [A.WHILLANS] having a decent record in NH flat races 8 placed from 34 [3 wins] in the last 5 season's it may have a chance and if the 8 stand their ground a decent E/W - PLACE bet. FAVS to avoid - AYR the 2.45 [1/9] , 3.55 [1/8] , SAND 2.35 [ 1/10] and the WOLVES 3.30 [1/10] I'm going to concentrate on NON-HANDICAPS from now on as it's a fair bit of work trying to cover everything , BOWLES + RUSS seem to be successfully covering the main Handicap races on their respective threads so i see no point in repeating the same stats.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RAMBLING LIGHT 1ST @ 7/1 :loon [Place = £1.50] MIZZLE 2ND @ 4/1 :\ [Place = £1.70] FAVS to avoid ------------- WOLVES 3.30 UNP :ok SANDOWN 2.35 2ND :ok AYR 3.55 UNP :ok AYR 2.45 1ST 4/7 :@ SODANTAY UNP

[RussP]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done mate:ok Cracking effort today.

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done mate

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers guys :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SUNDAY MARKET RASEN 2.50 2M2F Nov Hurdle. 7 out of 7 had ran no later than 25th Jan . 7 out of 7 had ran between 1 - 4 times that season. 6 out of 7 winners have been in the first 3 in the betting. 6 out of 7 have carried 11-2 or above. 5 out of 7 were aged 5 or 6. 5 out of 7 have won at least 2 races on the Flat. 5 out of 7 were placed 1st-4th LTO. No winner has carried over 12st. The FAV RUNTHATPASTMEAGAIN last ran 53 days ago. 2nd FAV FIRST FEERIE has not won a race. 3rd FAV JOHN FORBES carries 12-02 and has raced 7 times already this season. VALIANT SHADOW is next in the betting and apart from not winning a flat race [ although only beaten a SH at Nott] fits the rest of the stats. 5 y-old carrying 11-9 [as did 2 prev winners] ,has ran only twice over NH rules finishing 1st LTO 25 days ago. WARWICK 5.10 NH FLAT RACE. After 7 runnings , 5y-old have won 5 and 4 y-olds have won 2. The winning odds range from FAV to 10/1. 6 out of 7 had ran at least one NH Flat race that season. 5 of those were placed 2nd - 4th. 6 of those had last ran between 7 - 25 days previously. FIDDLE is the selection here with 2 previous runs under it's belt and finishing 3rd LTO only 17 days ago. He is 2nd FAV in the POST F/cast. FAV to Follow - Unusually,for a Handicap race, the 2.10 at WARWICK has had 7 FAVS out of 10.