JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends There's a lot of work involved now that the evening meetings have started up! PERTH 2.30 2M NOV HURDLE 6 out of 7 were in the top 2 in the betting [ 5 clear , 1jt + 1 2nd f] 6 out of 7 were aged 6 or 7 y-old 6 out of 7 carried a penalty. 6 out of 7 had ran at least 4 times that season. 6 out of 7 had won at least once in their last 3 outings. ALL had won a FLAT or NH FLAT race. LTO range = 2 - 53 days. Interestingly the first 2 in the betting [RP F/CAST] are 5y-olds and have not won either a FLAT or NH FLAT race race. There is also doubts about the SOFT ground for MODICUM [FAV] + SMART STREET [2ND FAV] 3rd fav CROCODILE DUNDEE fits all the trends - A 6y-old who carries a penalty , has ran 4 times this season , winning 1 , has won 4 flat races and last ran 13 days ago . He should handle the ground , won on Heavy. ** Both CROC DUNDEE + MODICUM are non-runners. Ha a look at the 2 will proboly start behind the fav , ENGLISH CITY is only a 4y-old and LITTLE BOB has not won a Hurdle race so the Selection is now SMART STREET FONTWELL 3.15 2M6F NOV HURDLE 9 out of 10 were either FAV or 2nd FAV. [ 6 clear] 8 out of 10 were 6 or 7 y-old 10 out of 10 had won at least one race that season. 9 out of 10 carried a Penalty. ALL ran between 4-8 races that season. LTO range = 10 -53 days. The Probable FAV is THUNDER ROCK , who is only a 5y-old and there is doubts about how he will handle the ground. SHERIFF ROSCOE - 7y-old, ran 4 times , won 1 race , LTO 9 days , carries a PEN and should have no probs with the ground. 4.05 PUNCHESTOWN 2M NOV CHASE 9 out of 10 in the top 3 in the betting [5 clear FAVS] 7 out of 10 aged 7 [5 wins] or 8 y-old [2 wins] 6 out of 10 had ran at AINTREE or CHELTENHAM The other 3 out of 4 had been placed between 1-3rd LTO. 9 out of 10 had ran between 2-6 races that season. 9 out of 10 had won that season 8 out of 10 had won at least once in their last 3 outings. GEMINI LUCY fits the trends nicely , A 7y-old , ran at CHELT , won LTO , has ran 6 times and won 2 in total.Aslo the ground should hold no probs. 2nd FAV ROYAL SHAKESPEARE narrowly misses out on the selection , being an 8y-old and this wil be his 8th outing this season. BEVERLY 4.35 1M 3Y-OLD+ MAIDEN 6 out of 6 was won by a 3y-old 5 out of 6 won by a horse in the top 3 in the betting [3 favs] 5 were trained at NEWMARKET. ALL had a previous outing , 5 as 2y-olds. ALL had last ran over 7f/1m At first glance not a great deal to go on , but when there is only 5 - 3y-olds down to run that makes it worth further investigation. The probable FAV , BEDIZEN is a 4y-old !! , 3rd FAV is SELEET , A Debutant That leaves GUNNERS VIEW + STARK CONTRAST , both with the same trend criteria but respective draws of 4 AND 12 the advantage is with STARK CONTRAST , lets hope the jockey uses it to out advantage and either leads or is just behind the leaders.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Check the non-runners at PERTH , see above.

[mileni4uk]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Three 2nd's .. how unlucky can you get?? :$

[Soloshchenko]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Three 2nd's .. how unlucky can you get?? :$

Unbelievable! Glad I put a few quid on franksalot at Beverley to cover my losses!! I'm sure you'll be back in winning ways on this thread soon tho JTW1. GL tommorrow, I'll be backing your horses again. :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Unlucky JTW. 3 2nds and Gemini fell at the very 1st fence. :puke

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Seconditis is a nasty disease , lets hope it's only a one day dose :hope SMART STREET 2ND @ 3/1 SHERIFF ROSCOE 2ND @ 13/8F STARK CONTRAST 2ND @ 5/2 GEMINI LUCY UR at first :( Back later with Fridays picks

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 4.05 PUNCHESTOWN 2M GRADE 1 HURDLE 8 out of 8 were in the top 3 in the betting Age range - 6 x 7y-olds , others were 5 + 6yold 7 out of 8 ran in 4-6 races that season 6 out of 8 finished 1st at least once that season 6 out of 8 had ran at either/or FAIRYHOUSE,AINTREE or CHELT. No horse has won the race more than once in the last 8 runnings. IKTITAF has ran 6 times, 6y-old , won this season , ran at CHELT LTO and is probable 2nd FAV. MACS JOY won this last year and also has not won this season and never ran at any of the 3 named festivals. HARDY EUSTACE has won this before and is now a 10y-old. 4.40 PUNCHESTOWN 2M4F GRADE1 NOV HURDLE 9 out of 10 winners were returned at single figure odds Age range - 7 x 6y-old , 3 x 5y-old. 9 out of 10 ran 4+ races that season. 7 out of 10 won LTO. 9 out of 10 were placed 1st-3rd LTO 9 out of 10 ran at either F'HOUSE,AINTREE or CHELT. 8 out of 10 had won at least 3 times that season Looking at the first 4 in the RP F/Cast - CATCH ME - 5Y-OLD , only won twice 3rd LTO. AITMATOV - 6Y-OLD ,8 RUNS , 3 WINS, WON LTO , [NEG -not ran at any festival] CUAN NA GRAI - Only 2 runs , 0 wins. GLENCOE MARINA - 5y-old , only ran twice . AITMATOV is the selection.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Both UNP :wall BETS - 53 WINNERS - 25 PLACED - 11 PROFIT - 175.51PTS YIELD - 33.11%

[gregprowt]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends yep frustrating couple of days but this thread is too good to stay down for long :ok still 175 points in profit

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers GREG :ok Going to concentrate on the Flat from tomorrow , will flag up any really strong trend over the jumps but mainly going to follow the Flat season. RIPON 4.40 2Y-OLD MAIDEN FILLIES STKS 5F 7 out of 7 were 1st or 2nd FAV [4clear , 1 jt] 7 out of 7 had ran at least 1 previous race on the flat [no AW] 6 out of 7 finished 1st or 2nd LTO Not a great deal to go on as there only 2y-olds but those 3 trends are pretty strong considering we have only one horse that has had a run on the flat and finished in the first 2 , out of a field of 14. Th probable 2nd FAV was 4th on the AW. SINEAD OF AGLISH - FAV , RAN ONCE , FINISHED 2ND ON THE FLAT ** BEWARE ** The selection is drawn 14 of 14 at a course where it is normally an advantage to be drawn low . Keep an eye out on the results of the 2.30 [6f] and the 3.05 [5f] . If no HIGH numbers fill any of the first 3 places in either of those races then it's NO BET.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Had a delve into a couple of the races at SANDOWN today and think i have unearthed some decent trends that weren't obvious at first glance. 3.55 BETFRED MILE GRP 2 8 out of 10 winners were in single figures. 9 out of 10 were aged 4 or 5. No Mare has won in 10 runnings * This is the interesting one* 7 out of 10 last ran in NEWMARKETS EARL of SEFTON STAKES at the CRAVEN meeting. 2 ran in the DONCASTER MILE and only 1 won FTO. The ONLY entry to have ran in the EARL of SEFTON is FINAL VERSE , probable 2nd FAV , a 4y-old and a Distance winner . Stablemate and FAV JEREMY has NOT won yet over 1m and has ran 2nd both times when making it'd debut. Obviously with DETTORI onboard it must be assumed that this is the stables best hope but i'm willing to take it on with FINAL VERSE. 2.40 SANDOWN GRADE 2 CHASE. NO FAV in 6 runnings has won. 6 out of 6 had ran in the CHAMPION CHASE at CHELT 6 out of 6 had won at least one GRADE 1 or 2 Chase. 5 out of 6 were aged 8-10 y-old. CENKOS won this twice ,albeit with a year inbetween victories. 3 horses ran in this years CHAMPION CHASE DEMPSEY MR MCGOLDRICK RIVER CITY Out of those , DEMPSEY has NOT won a Grade 1 or 2 race and is FAV . The other 2 have won at those Grades so with further investigation we find that MR MCGOLDRICK has NOT won on ground better than G/Soft It's GOOD /FIRM today. That leaves us with Probable 2nd FAV and last years winner RIVER CITY , no problems with the ground for him and if he's recovered from his run at PUNCHESTOWN only 4 days ago he must go close.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SINEAD OF AIGLISH 2ND @ 6/4 F :( RIVER CITY + FINAL VERSE UNP :@ Taking a wee step back here and going to have a look at the results so far , i get a funny feeling that most of the winners have come from NOVICE events over the jumps and MAIDENS on the Flat. Maybe trying to read into too many details and trying to dig out winners rather than them appearing in front of me !!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BETS = 56 WINS = 25 PLACED = 12 PROFIT = 145.51 PTS YIELD = 25.98% Trying to keep it simple from now on. BRIGHTON 2.10 2Y-OLD MAIDEN 5F 8 out of 10 either 1st or 2nd FAV. 9 out of 10 had ran at least once , no more than twice . 8 of those finished no worse than 6th. 9 out of 10 ran between 2-17 days previously. ALL had ran LTO on TURF. M CHANNON has an impressive record of - 3,1,1,1,3,1. The first 2 in the betting are CONCERTMASTER + SWINDON TOWN FLYER. 2 trends are against S.T FLYER , he ran LTO on the AW and that was 31 days ago. CONCERTMASTER - Probable FAV , ran once ,fin 3rd on the Flat 18 days ago. WETHERBY 5.35 2M4F NOV HURDLE 6 out of 7 were in the top 4 in the betting [ 3 favs] 6 out of 7 were aged 5-9 y-old In 3 races where horses carried a penalty , those 3 were won by those carrying a Penalty. BRAVE REBELLION - 1/3 fav , 8y-old and the ONLY horse that carries a Penalty.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BRAVE REBELLION 1ST @ 2/7 F :) CONCERTMASTER 2ND @ 11/8 F :eyes 58 BETS 26 WINNERS 13 PLACED PROFIT - 138.37 PTS YIELD - 23.8% Nothing for MONDAY

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thursday - 2.10 HEREFORD 3M2F MAIDEN HURDLE. 7 out of 8 winners were in the top 4 in the betting. 8 out of 8 were aged 5-8y old. 7 out of 8 had finished 2nd-4th in either of their prev 2 outings. 7 out of 8 had ran no more than 46 days prev. 8 out of 8 had ran at least one race OVER 21f. The last 5 winners had ran at least one Chase. The probable FAV , BALLBOLEY is a 9y-old . X 2nd FAV , SLANEY EAGLE hasn't been out for 367 days and never raced over 20f . XX 3rd FAV , DEVON BLUE hasn't ran in a Steeplechase. X That leaves us to consider the 4th fav [RP F/cast] TASTES LIKE MORE. 5Y-OLD, 2nd time before last, ran 25 days ago , has ran in 2 Chases and been placed 2nd at 24f. He also has MICK FITZ on board tomorrow and should be a decent price.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends A Decent price but unfortunatly could only finish a well beaten 3rd @ 6/1 FRIDAY ------- BANGOR 7.00 3M NOV HURDLE 7 out of 10 were FAV , 2 others were 2+3rd FAV. AGE - 10 out of 10 were aged between 5-8y-old. 8 out of 10 winners carried a Penalty [ albeit a single 6lb pen] We should look no further than the FAV who carries a penalty , and is an 8 y-old , SPIRIT OF NEW YORK.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends TASTES LIKE MORE 3RD @ 6/1 SPIRIT OF NEW YORK 1ST @ 11/8F :loon 60 BETS 27 WINS 14 PLACED PROFIT = 142.12 PTS YIELD = 23.68% Start with the most obvious !! THIRSK 2.25 1m4f MAIDEN 3Y-OLD+ 7 out of 7 won by a 3y-old [ only 2 entered in Sat's race] 7 out of 7 won by 1st-3rd FAV [ 4 clear FAV] 6 out of 7 had a previous outing. MONSOON WEDDING - Trained by last years winning trainer M JOHNSTON and one of only 2 3y-olds in the race[ the other around 14/1] and has ran before . Short priced , but should win. THIRSK 4.05 7F MAIDEN 3Y-OLD 8 out of 10 won by either 1st or 2nd FAV. 8 out of 10 won by a colt/gelding. 8 out of 10 had raced at least once. 9 out of 10 won by a Southern Raider. The FAV for this Maiden will probably be the STOUTE trained INCOMING CALL , however being a filly making it's debut counts against it in the Trends. 2nd FAV is the Northern trained :( , SOCCERJACKPOT. The jt 3rd FAV [RP F/Cast] is RAGHEED. This Wm HAGGAS [NEWMARKET] trained COLT has one previous outing to his name and could well be worth a chance at a decent price.

[gregprowt]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends good to see its back on track JTW1 :ok nice SP today, thought that was going to be odds on

[gregprowt]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RAGHEED WINS AT 6-1 :loon brilliant pick mate :ok

[Mighty Magyar]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Brilliant again !:clap Stewards Enquiry :unsure

[kevsul]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

RAGHEED WINS AT 6-1 :loon brilliant pick mate :ok

3/1 it returned, backed in from an opening show of 5/1. could proably of got better at betfair

[gregprowt]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends result stands :ok ended up 3-1 though :eek

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Right OWN up who plunged on RAGHEED !!!!!! :rollin 7/1 down to 3's :eek , certainly was fancied , got it at 5's just missed 6's Really surprised at MONSOON WEDDING getting beat :eyes but i'll forgive him this time :D. RAGHEED 1ST @ 3/1 :loon MONSOON WEDDING 3RD @ 8/11F :( BETS - 62 WINS - 28 PLACED - 14 PROFIT = 172.12 PTS YIELD = 27.76%

[aliando]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends going very well here - well done (again!)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NEWMARKET 4.55 1M2F FILLIES LISTED STAKES 10 out of 10 in the top 4 in the betting. 9 out of 10 were Newmarket trained. Only one penalty carrier has won from 5 entries in 10 runnings. 9 out of 10 were placed 1st-3rd in either of their last 2 outings. Those 9 had last ran at either 7f/1m LTO. The previous 6 winners had ran no more than 3 times. 6 out of 10 had ran a previous race at NEWMARKET . Looking at the first 4 in the RP F/Cast we can discount - SUDOOR - PENALTY CARRIER, PLACED 05 PREV 2 OUTINGS an has ran 4 TIMES SILK DRESS - NOT NEWMARKET TRAINED and also ran 4 TIMES. DALVINA - LAST RAN ON AW. So the selection is DANCE OF LIGHT - Probable FAV , trained by STOUTE, One prev outing at NEWMARKET [ only 5th ] in an 1m race. 4.05 SALISBURY 1M4F 3Y-OLD MAIDEN 9 out of 10 were in the top 4 in the betting 8 out of 10 were colts/geldings 7 out of 10 had a previous run 6 ran that season , no longer than 20 days previous. None finished worse than 6th LTO. 10 out of 10 ran LTO at no shorter a distance than 10f The 2nd FAV - BEJAN PRINCE can be discounted straight away as he has not ran this season and has not run over 1m. GUARDIAN OF TRUTH and I PREDICT A RIOT both fit the trends but the former gets the nap as he finished 2nd LTO and had the latter back in 5th over 1m2f.

[RussP]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Keep it going, mate. Great winner again:ok

[evad]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends nice winner 2day.... well done!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GUARDIAN OF TRUTH 3RD @ 5/4 F :( DANCE OF LIGHT NR. CURRAGH 2.45 GRP 3 COLTS+ FILLIES 7F 9 out of 9 won by a COLT. 8 out of 9 won by either 1st or 2nd FAV. 8 out of 9 had ran once THIS season but no more than twice. ALL had ran between 2-7 times. 8 out of 9 had ran UNDER 31 DAYS previously. 8 out of 9 had ran over 7f/1m LTO. 7 out of 9 WON LTO. ALL had won at least one race in it's career. AP O'BRIEN has had 4 wins , 3 x 2nd's and 2 x 3rd's. The probable top 2 in the betting could be CREACHDOIR + TOP CLASS . CREACHDOIR has ran 3 times this season , was 5th LTO and ran over 10f LTO , these stats all count against him. The AP O'BRIEN trained COLT , TOP CLASS has only ran once but won that 7F race 16 days ago. NEWCASTLE 3.35 1M2F MAIDEN 3Y-OLD+ 7 out of 7 won by a 3y-old. 5 out of 7 won by either 1st or 2nd FAV . 7 out of 7 ran no more than 3 times. 7 out of 7 ran LTO between 7f-10f. 6 out of 7 finished in the first 6 LTO. 6 out of 7 races were won by a COLT/GELDING. Similar to SATURDAYS selection [RAGHEED] in that the probable FAV is the STOUTE trained DAN DARE and therefore will be put in at a shortish price . But as he is a 4Y-OLD and takes a drop back to 10f after running at 12f LTO , i think it could be worth taking him on with the HOWARD JOHNSTON trained TOPAZLEO. The stable won this last year and as he is a 3Y-OLD Gelding , 2ND fav , and has ran once over 1m , finishing 6th could be a decent bet to upest the STOUTE representative.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends TOP CLASS UNP :( TOPAZLEO NR :\ BETS - 64 WINS- 28 PLACED - 14 PROFIT - 152.12PTS YIELD - 23.77% Nothing on Tuesday

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1.50 CHESTER 5F COND STAKES.

2006	Mubaashir (5)	2	9-1	5/1	E A L Dunlop	L Dettori	84
2005	Ooh Aah Camara (1)	2	8-8	9/1	Miss V Haigh	John Egan	92
2004	Dance Night (1)	2	8-10	15/8F	B A McMahon	Graham Gibbons	88
2003	Caldy Dancer (1)	2	8-5	9/4J	A Berry	Francis Norton	91
2002	The Lord (3)	2	9-2	13/8F	W G M Turner	Alan Daly	93
2001	Simianna (8)	2	8-5	16/1	A Berry	Francis Norton	86
2000	Romantic Myth (2)	2	8-8	5/4F	T D Easterby	K Darley	99
1999	Digital Image (5)	2	8-10	8/1	R Hannon	Richard Hughes	74
1998	Queensland Star (2)	2	8-13	2/1F	J Berry	G Carter	93
1997	Daunting Lady (1)	2	8-8	10/11F	R Hannon	Pat Eddery	99

8 out of 10 were in the first 3 in the betting [ 5 FAVS , 1 JT] 9 out of 9 had ran AND won at least once. 8 out of 9 last ran within 21 days. The draw plays it's part and stalls 1+2 have won 6 from 10. Being CHESTER the draw plays a vital part ,as well as being well up with the pace. The RP FAV is FAST FEET who has ran twice but not won yet. [came from off the pace] The 3rd FAV has not ran for 39 days . Which leaves us with CRACKING from the HANNON stable [responsible for winners in '97 + '99 ] This won beat us last time out [10 days ago]when making all at Brighton and although he's drawn 3 , stall 1 is a NR and with luck he can get first run on the FAV.