Carl Posted July 18, 2006 Author Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. YORK The tendency to race away from the far rail in the home straight more frequently, following some deliberate remedial work overseen by the new clerk of the course a couple of years ago, has led to a reduction in the advantage for low-drawn horses on the round course However, stall 1 is still showing a profit (albeit now reduced to 14 points) backed blindly in all races run at 1m+ since 1998. Given the recent changes in the nature of the track bias, this profit may have become a loss by the end of 2006. Very high and very low numbers tend to struggle in sprints, though the tendency to race in a bunch up the middle of the course negates the disadvantage at times. Whilst York is still very much a speed-favouring track, there haven’t been quite as many winners making all the running in the last couple of seasons, particularly on the round since the far-rail bias course seems to have disappeared. No-one rides the round track better than Kieren Fallon, and over the last four seasons his 168 rides at 7f+ have yielded 36 wins from 168 rides and a profit of 62pts. 5f: Seven handicaps run in 2005; jockeys tend to head for the centre of the track, and extreme draws at either end not ideal; stalls 19 and 20 are 0-54 in all races since 1998, whilst in handicaps stalls 16 and higher are just 1-130 since 1998; Folga’s win from stall 1 was the first 5f handicap win for that stall since 1998. 6f: 11 handicaps run in 2005; extremes not quite such a disadvantage here as at 5f but results indicate a middle draw is ideal, with stalls 9 and 10 providing five of the handicap winners (maximum field size 20). 7f: Nine handicaps run in 2005; high numbers again more than held their own, with seven of the nine winners coming from the top half of the draw; the low numbers probably go off too fast at this trip, and with the far rail no longer presenting the advantage it did until a couple of years ago, middle to high numbers cane be expected to continue to do well; over the last five years stall 1 has only provided one winner (and that in a seven-runner race) from 32 runs in handicaps. 1m: Eight handicaps run in 2005; winners came from right across the draw spectrum, but backing every horse drawn 1-3 in handicaps over this C&D since 1999 would have produced 18 wins from 161 bets and a profit of 89pts. 1m1f: Only two handicaps run at this trip in 2005, and insufficient data from previous years to make any judgements. 1m2f: 11 handicaps run in 2005; high draw hasn’t always been a disadvantage at this trip (John Smiths/Magnet Cup has gone to stalls 18 and 19 in last two years) but the bottom three stalls did provide five of the 11 handicap winners in 2005. 1m4f: 11 handicaps in 2004; no obvious sign of bias in this or previous years. 1m5f197y: 7 handicaps run in 2005; winners ranged across the draw spectrum; stall 1 drew a blank but nonetheless in all races (handicaps and non-handicaps) run since 1998 has produced 15 wins from 69 runs and a profit of 85pts. 1m7f198y: Distance only used once or twice per year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Sorry it's a bit faded but its from my scanner, hope it's useful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. any chance of it in text mode matey? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. How do I put it in text mode, do you mean by typing it out? Or can I change it somehow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Ill sort it;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Cheers mate. Glad one of us has a clue with technology and PC's. Certainly isn't me. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. will be interested in newmarket again today with high drawn horses in the straight races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 4, 2007 Share Posted April 4, 2007 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Bump,maybe make hs a tiy again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted April 4, 2007 Share Posted April 4, 2007 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Bump' date='maybe make hs a tiy again?[/quote'] Is your PC going slow or have you been drinking already. :spank :spank :rollin :rollin Are you meaning to say " Bump, maybe make this a sticky again?" LOL :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 4, 2007 Share Posted April 4, 2007 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. lol oops! I just got this new wireless keyboard still getting used to it :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted April 4, 2007 Share Posted April 4, 2007 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. lol oops! I just got this new wireless keyboard still getting used to it :lol lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haitch Posted April 4, 2007 Share Posted April 4, 2007 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Very informative thread - please make it a sticky !!!! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted April 4, 2007 Share Posted April 4, 2007 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Very informative thread - please make it a sticky !!!! :) Done:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted April 11, 2008 Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. What about Donny? High draw a bonus? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Good question Ratty, Donny missing from this thread, and on ONEDUNMES recent thread as well. Can't remember where I got this from :unsure but had it for quite a while. It takes into account all races of 12 or more runners over a 5 year period, but for some reason it only listed the courses shown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. For anyone wanting excellent draw analysis, Massey's site is FANTASTIC; http://www.adrianmassey.com/draw/index.php All you need, even has a custom report feature whereby you can narrow down any factor. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. It was a case of wat and see with Doncaster after the reopening. Historically the high draw seemed to have the advantage. I was there earlier this year, all the money was for high drawn horses, Joe Fanning raced alone on the far side from a low draw and ran them all ragged. I'm liking the avatar Lee, met Big Daddy when I was about 8 and used to go watch the wrestling weekly at St Georges Hall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Do any of the draw guides take the SP of the winners into consideration ? What i mean is, it is theoretically possible that its not the draw creating the bias but the runners, if that makes sense. For example a full season of the shortest priced runners always running from the bottom 4 or 5 stalls i would expect would create a draw bias. And so in reality there wouldn't be a draw bias. What do you all think ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Do any of the draw guides take the SP of the winners into consideration ? What i mean is, it is theoretically possible that its not the draw creating the bias but the runners, if that makes sense. For example a full season of the shortest priced runners always running from the bottom 4 or 5 stalls i would expect would create a draw bias. And so in reality there wouldn't be a draw bias. What do you all think ? Good point Trilobite. I would have thought that in draw bias studies you have to make the assumpion that horses with low SP's are allocated favourable draws just as frequently as the rank outsiders, because after all the draw is random isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. I think the mere fact a horse is drawn well will mean it is often factored in to the price. The time will eventually come when it will be advantageous to back horses with a poor draw. As their chances are dissmissed by the punter and allowed to go off at too big a price. I would also imagine many of the races that go against draw bias are due to winners racing prominently. At Goodwood for example, I find at 7f to 1m the most important aspect is being a prominent runner. Often those well drawn but held up get boxed in and do not get a run. Where as a prominent runner drawn towards the outside can still win provided there is not too much early pace in the race. Usually though, the best selections are those who race prominently from a high draw. One type of race effectively favours those badly drawn. This is when an overly strong pace occurs. Those badly drawn are usually dropped out the back, so are going the correct pace. Well drawn jockeys want to get a good early position and go too fast for their own good. With those poorly drawn horses picking them off late on. I look for this where there are three or more confirmed front runners in the field (the type that have to lead to show their form) not often. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Cheers Cassius et al that was from April though :lol Masseys site is decent for analysis though too. Use that now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. I think the mere fact a horse is drawn well will mean it is often factored in to the price. The time will eventually come when it will be advantageous to back horses with a poor draw. As their chances are dissmissed by the punter and allowed to go off at too big a price. If you look at the Massey stats that already happens....... Just plucked out Sandown 5 Furlongs as an example....... http://www.adrianmassey.com/draw/sand5.php The draw bias chart shows high numbers favoured but you make the biggest profit by backing the lowest drawn horses Presumably because they go off at bigger odds than they should. I've just given the one example but it happens throughout if you go by Massey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. You are right Trotter it does happen now, but would not say it is the norm yet. With Sandown's five furlong course I don't think the advantage is as great as it once was, at least on a firm surface. I agree, every horse should be judged on price (value) taking everything including draw in to account. Sometimes price means it is worth backing against the supposed draw bias. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Cheers Cassius et al that was from April though :lol I'm a slow reader :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. How does draw (stall no.) relate to position on the course? Is stall 1 always the stall most towards the inside of the track, or is stall 1 the stall that is closest to a running rail? Or neither?! How does the positioning of the stalls (HIGH, LOW) affect the relationship? I still can't get my head round the problem, or find a definitive answer on the web - can anyone help? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. How does draw (stall no.) relate to position on the course? Is stall 1 always the stall most towards the inside of the track' date= or is stall 1 the stall that is closest to a running rail? Or neither?! How does the positioning of the stalls (HIGH, LOW) affect the relationship? I still can't get my head round the problem, or find a definitive answer on the web - can anyone help? If you're standing behind the stalls, it numbers from left to right. 1 will always be far left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted September 3, 2008 Share Posted September 3, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. In other words in GB: On a left handed course No 1 is nearest the rail. On a right handed course the highest number is drawn nearest the rail. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Thanks guys, much appreciated :ok That explains why low draws are favoured on a LH circuit, high on a RH circuit (generally). The reason I was asking was because I am reading a book on draw bias where the author swapped the stall numbers for his analyses, depending on whether the stalls were positioned high or low. I can understand this with respect to riders wanting to run along the rail on a straight track, but for circuits if a low draw is on the inside it is on the inside irrespective of the stall postion (high, centre or low) and swapping the data seems a bit odd. I must be missing something else! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster5000 Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 Re: Draw guide to all meetings. Is there any chance of getting this info for the jumps as in RH/LH tracks and undulating course etc???????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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