French Open 2024

[CzechPunter]

Draws here: https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/results/SM?round=1

R1: Nadal - Zverev!

[CzechPunter]

Sara Sorribes Tormo (-4.5) to beat Bianca Andreescu at 1.86 with Unibet

Andreescu hasn't played since Montreal last year, and the surface doesn't really play to her strengths here, so I'm not sure how much damage she will be able to do against SST, who's been very solid all year long, and who has all the fitness to out-last Andreescu as well. Unless Andreescu hits a purple patch here, she'll go down easily.

Yulia Putintseva to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.73 with Bet365

I really liked how Putintseva dismantled Stephens in Rome a couple of weeks ago, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of that here. Putintseva has improved a lot recently, and she's always pumped up for matches. Stephens just might not have the energy and will despite this being a GS match.

 

[Robinnho]

Arnaldi vs Fils Over 38.5 @1.92

Ranking 6 positions apart, Arnaldi is 3-0 in H2H but all matches are closely contested. With home crowd support, Fils will wanna beat the Italian for the first time so expect the 2 powerful youngsters to fight it out in a long match of at least 4 sets with at least one set to go to the distance of 7 games.

 

Edited May 27 by Robinnho
Number error

[888888]

anyone on Zverev to beat Nadal ? 3-0 or 3-1  , or -5,5 games

[neilovan]

51 minutes ago, 888888 said:

anyone on Zverev to beat Nadal ? 3-0 or 3-1  , or -5,5 games

I don't think you can discount someone who has won it 14 times, regardless of their current situation. Nadal will leave nothing in the tank here. He knows he can't win the whole thing but will not want out in the 1st round.

I am not crazy about Zverev. I think his transition game is lousy. Not the 1st strike game, where you serve well and hit the returned ball for a winner. But the midcourt rally ball, getting low, hitting the right shot to the right place.  I think Zverev is quite poor at this. Last year Ruud beat him  6-4  6-3  6-0 and this part of his game was so poor. eventually he gave up. Hopefully Nadal changes tactics somewhat and uses this weakness to his advantage. I expect shorter points, and more drop shots.

[neilovan]

Some of the results yesterday were just shocking. Draper losing ... seriously, he was 23 to 100 to win.

For me not value in anything under 2 to 10

Shnaider lost     odds   1.15

Krejcikova was 1.14  French open winner who can't win a match at the French since. Man she was awful. 55+ unforced in 21 games is a joke at pro level. 

 

I like a small treble today. Norrie to beat Kotov, Begu to beat Riera and Bogdan to beat Jacqemont (around 2.2 to 1)

Norrie does not have the game to beat the big boys, but it definitely works well against the 57+ rankings.

Begu is very good at the 2 set win and the 2-0 sets is also an option.

I like Bogdan. Always seems to get a tough major draw, but this matchup looks like 1 way traffic to me.  Jacquemot having a rough 2024.

 

In the longer shots I have three bets. All taken as singles

Fils v Arnaldi  . Arnaldi to win at odds around 2.3. Fils gets very emotional and the boorish French crowd will turn it into a circus. I think the emotion will cost Fils. I watched him a few weeks ago v Lajovic, and he got emotional and lost his focus.

Kecmanovic v Monteiro . Monterio to win at odds of evens. Monteiro coming though qualies but he beat Kecmanovic in Rome (close 3 setter, as well as beating Thompson and Monfils).

Kalinskaya v Clara Burel. Burel beat Svitolina recently and it was not fluke. Being a former junior #1 means that technically you are very very good. You need physicality and body growth, as well as game growth as the body adapts. Burel is serving better (much harder), and hitting the ball harder, and she is small, which makes it even more impressive. Kalinskaya also lost 4 of her last 6 clay court matches, and had a retirement. She is just here to collect her 75K USD.

Edited May 27 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Nadal is cooked. He can't move.

Did I post in wrong place?

Edited May 27 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Nah, good place. Haha, I liked this - they were like goodbye Rafa, and he starts by saying that he might be back.

[neilovan]

Burel could easily have won her match. In 24 serve games they lost their serves 15 times. Really poor serving. May as well serve it under arm.

[CzechPunter]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Clara Tauson at 1.58 with Unibet

Ostapenko is now up and running again, and she should be able to find a way to beat Tauson, who's almost permanently injured and just not fit in terms of overall conditioning. Ostapenko can hit as big as her, and she can outlast her as well if the need to do so arises.

[neilovan]

Norrie losing yesterday was somewhat of a surprise, after being 2 sets up. His famed fitness was not evident in the 5th set where he got crushed,

1 bet with 4 legs

Avanesyan  v Zhu  1.37   . Avanesyan is solid, and her ability to solve in game problems is very good. Comfortable here, probably covers the 4.5 game handicap as well.

Kasatkina Frech  win in 2 sets  1.72   . This is the slightly risky leg of the bet, but Kasatkina definitely has the pedigree.

Zheng v Cornet  2 sets   1.33  . Cornet is done. Just another leg of the farewell tour. This will be a 1 sided beating.

Badosa v Boulter 1.28  .  Straight win for Badosa here. Seems to be getting over the injuries, and has too much clay court ability here.

probably gives 2.2 to 1

 

Quite an unexciting day of tennis.

 

I will take one longer shot bet. Bublik to lose to Barrere, Hamad Medjedovic to win and Munar to win. Seems like so many 1 sided matches with no decent betting opportunities.

 

 

Edited May 28 by neilovan

[Torque]

17 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Norrie losing yesterday was somewhat of a surprise, after being 2 sets up. His famed fitness was not evident in the 5th set where he got crushed,

1 bet with 4 legs

Avanesyan  v Zhu  1.37   . Avanesyan is solid, and her ability to solve in game problems is very good. Comfortable here, probably covers the 4.5 game handicap as well.

Kasatkina Frech  win in 2 sets  1.72   . This is the slightly risky leg of the bet, but Kasatkina definitely has the pedigree.

Zheng v Cornet  2 sets   1.33  . Cornet is done. Just another leg of the farewell tour. This will be a 1 sided beating.

Badosa v Boulter 1.28  .  Straight win for Badosa here. Seems to be getting over the injuries, and has too much clay court ability here.

probably gives 2.2 to 1

 

 

Norrie wasn't two sets up. He lost from 2-1 ahead so losing from that position is obviously less surprising although of course he was supposed to win. I agree about Avanesyan and Boulter, but I'm less convinced about Cornet. I wouldn't be in normal circumstances because as you suggest Cornet has looked shot the last few months, but there will be a raucous and partisan crowd cheering her on and I don't think Qinwen will enjoy an environment like that - think Simon almost being carried to victory by the crowd against Carreno Busta when he was playing his last French. As for Kasatkina, it's risky enough just to back her to win regardless of the odds. 

Edited May 28 by Torque

[Fader]

I read that Nadal said "Last year was the worst year of his life" (as he wasn't competing) so I can't see him retiring. Bit sad really when you think he had a child last year 😄

[neilovan]

58 minutes ago, Torque said:

Norrie wasn't two sets up. He lost from 2-1 ahead so losing from that position is obviously less surprising although of course he was supposed to win. I agree about Avanesyan and Boulter, but I'm less convinced about Cornet. I wouldn't be in normal circumstances because as you suggest Cornet has looked shot the last few months, but there will be a raucous and partisan crowd cheering her on and I don't think Qinwen will enjoy an environment like that - think Simon almost being carried to victory by the crowd against Carreno Busta when he was playing his last French. As for Kasatkina, it's risky enough just to back her to win regardless of the odds. 

I meant he was 2-1 up (just busy and distracted here).  Kasatkina has not lost to a bad player this clay season. Lost to Osaka, Putintseva, Collins. 

I think Zheng is an exceptional talent. Atypical in the womans game. Athletic, tall, with a good serve. I've watched quite a few of her matches and she has been excellent. Had a bad 2nd set against Gauff but put Osaka, Noskova and Rogers away easily in Rome.  In 7 sets she won 5 by 2 breaks or more. 

The betting is very weird on this Cornet match. Zheng is 4 to 100 to win. If she is to beat the handicap she almost has to win 6-2  6-2 or 6-3 6-1(or better). So the question is "can Cornet win 5 games"? If answer No then Zheng -7.5 is fine. For me it is very marginal. I think Cornet wins 4 or 5 games, max 6. So the 2 sets to 0 at 0.22 seems like a good option here.

Maybe the best bet here is any set to nil YES at 4.0

I think there will be lot's of opportunities to make in play bets today. 

Edited May 28 by neilovan

[timovk]

Rus - Kerber @1.52 Kerber is much more experienced and can take this easily. 👎

 Azarenka - 1.5 sets - Podorovska  @1.6.5                        Azarenka is also very experienced  while Podorovska is only a mediocre player. 2H2 for Victoria in straight sets. 👍

Ram/Salisbury - Behar/Pavlasek @1.53 Very experienced pair ready to success here! 👍

Popyrin - Kokkinasis @1.90 Kokkinasis is also old fox and knows how to play on Grand Slams. Tough battle but I see Aussie to win in 4-5 sets. 👍

Tsitsipas/Tsitsipas - Molchanov/Smith @1.59 Greek brothers can go far away here and are talent clay player. 

Keys - 1.5 sets - Zarazua @1.45  EASY Win to the Yankee who has been in tough condition lately. 👍

Errani - Schmiedlova @1.75     👎 Errani is more experienced especially on this surface, but is much more slower and not at her best. 

Heliövaara/Patten - Gonzalez/Vasselin @1.84   👍        This pair is the hottest just now! They have won 7 last matches and IMO they should be bigger favourites today. 

 

Good luck you all. 

Edited May 31 by timovk
Updating results.

[Foo_Fighter]

Naomi Osaka to beat (+1.5 sets) Iga Swiatek with bet365 at 4.33 with bet365

Amanda Anisimova to beat Liudmila Samsonova at 2.5 with bet365

Viktorija Golubic to beat Anastasia Potapova at 4.33 with bet365

Olga Danilovic to beat (+1.5 sets) Danielle Collins at 2.2 with bet365

Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Pavel Kotov at 2.3 with bet365

Some great value on these 5 picks above. Good luck.

[neilovan]

In a match just starting now I think that Kenin has a solid chance against a fading Garcia.

I think Garcia's tactics are terrible, trying to hit the cover off the ball at every chance. Kenin looks a better player after her surgeries.

 

Was very impressed with Cociaretto against Hadad Maia. Maia did not play badly but was just demolished in the 3rd set.

I think she wins easily today.

[neilovan]

Tomorrow looks like  great day of tennis. Hopefully the weather plays along.

I really do like Monfils to beat Musetti. Monfils was pretty good in the 1st round. He's no spring chicken but he is an incredible athlete. For me Musetti has just stagnated, Burst on the scene taking 2 sets of Djoko years ago, and his game has not moved forward since. An added factor here will be a partisan French crowd that will definitely help. Should be the best match of the tornament so far.

I was very impressed with Etcheverry last round. Really tough match against Cazaux. Crowd against him, and losing the 1st set, was not easy. Yet he hung in there and won the next 3 quite easily. This is a strong guy, mentally and physically. I think he wins against Rinderknech. The consistency and patience from growing up on clay at sea level makes tough competitors.

Woman's draw packed with great matchups tomorrow as well

I think that the way Vavare Gracheva is playing she looks a really good bet against Bernarda Pera. Just beaten Krejcikova and Sakkari, and I think she continues her run here. She looks like she is playing with freedom and really enjoying herself. I was so surprised with her shot making (in both previous matches). Hardly missed a ball. One of the two biggest surprises for me. The other Cociaretto blitzing Haddad Maia.

The Kalinskaya v Andreescu match is anybody's guess. Both undercooked and not match ready. Kalinskaya should really have lost 1st round to Burel (7-6  7-5), who had so many opportunities to win. Neither of these two serving particularly well. I think that Andresscu has more than an even chance here and is worth a bet.

Kostyk v Vekic. I think Vekic is gonna win this one. Kostyk with some weird recent loses (Sherif). She is vulnerable. Vekic is a decent price here, and her recent loses have been to very good players. 

as a note...  I'm watching the Swiatek v Osaka match. Best I have seen Osaka play ... ever!

 WIping the floor with her, which is not something that happens often ... 

Edited May 29 by neilovan

[amity]

35 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Tomorrow looks like  great day of tennis. Hopefully the weather plays along.

I really do like Monfils to beat Musetti. Monfils was pretty good in the 1st round. He's no spring chicken but he is an incredible athlete. For me Musetti has just stagnated, Burst on the scene taking 2 sets of Djoko years ago, and his game has not moved forward since. An added factor here will be a partisan French crowd that will definitely help. Should be the best match of the tornament so far.

I was very impressed with Etcheverry last round. Really tough match against Cazaux. Crowd against him, and losing the 1st set, was not easy. Yet he hung in there and won the next 3 quite easily. This is a strong guy, mentally and physically. I think he wins against Rinderknech. The consistency and patience from growing up on clay at sea level makes tough competitors.

Woman's draw packed with great matchups tomorrow as well

I think that the way Vavare Gracheva is playing she looks a really good bet against Bernarda Pera. Just beaten Krejcikova and Sakkari, and I think she continues her run here. She looks like she is playing with freedom and really enjoying herself. I was so surprised with her shot making (in both previous matches). Hardly missed a ball. One of the two biggest surprises for me. The other Cociaretto blitzing Haddad Maia.

The Kalinskaya v Andreescu match is anybody's guess. Both undercooked and not match ready. Kalinskaya should really have lost 1st round to Burel (7-6  7-5), who had so many opportunities to win. Neither of these two serving particularly well. I think that Andresscu has more than an even chance here and is worth a bet.

Kostyk v Vekic. I think Vekic is gonna win this one. Kostyk with some weird recent loses (Sherif). She is vulnerable. Vekic is a decent price here, and her recent loses have been to very good players. 

as a note...  I'm watching the Swiatek v Osaka match. Best I have seen Osaka play ... ever!

 WIping the floor with her, which is not something that happens often ... 

Also watching Osaka and she is playing insanely well! Really hope she goes on to win it, it's one helluva performance from her, right up there with her best! 

[amity]

Damn I think we've jinxed her! 🤣 Just blew a matchpoint and made several unforced errors in that last game, some really bad ones. Nerves playing havoc with her it looks like, Swiatek has a great chance now.. 🙁

[neilovan]

7 minutes ago, amity said:

Damn I think we've jinxed her! 🤣 Just blew a matchpoint and made several unforced errors in that last game, some really bad ones. Nerves playing havoc with her it looks like, Swiatek has a great chance now.. 🙁

One simple forehand  to go 40-15 in the net at 5-3

[DrO]

Osaka..so,so close..

[neilovan]

Quite disappointing to see such poor evening crowds. I think tickets are expensive and not worth it for 1 match. Tournament greed.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, amity said:

Damn I think we've jinxed her! 🤣 Just blew a matchpoint and made several unforced errors in that last game, some really bad ones. Nerves playing havoc with her it looks like, Swiatek has a great chance now.. 🙁

That was some match to watch. Swiatek looked gone when staring down the barrel of a double break deficit in the final set, and for as well as Osaka played up to that point she could have only blamed herself if she'd lost.

Her key point performance was atrocious and if it hadn't been for a bit of a collapse at the end from Osaka then she would have lost. The warning sign for what was to come was being broken from 40-0 in the first set and although she got away with it by winning the tie-break, she was on the wrong side of all the important points in the second set where Osaka went to town on her second serve, before what looked like the critical passage of play at the start of the third.

First off Swiatek failed to break from 15-40, then failed to hold from 40-15 before Osaka got out of 0-40 for a 3-0 lead. It was incredible to watch such a dominant player struggle so much - her serve looked a complete liability and against a player she knew struggled on clay, the lack of depth and direction to move Osaka around the court was hard to understand. If she missed her first serve, which isn't the best anyway, there was a spell where it felt like she lost all second serve points. It was so impotent that Osaka was halfway to the service box most of the time and smacking away winner after winner.

She deserves credit for getting over the line there's no question, but to me it looked like another example of how she's out of practice when it comes to being put under real pressure - she looked stunned in the second set in particular.

[Torque]

On 5/27/2024 at 2:31 PM, neilovan said:

Did I post in wrong place?

I'm assuming that's a reference to the tumbleweed that tends to blow around here these days.

[Torque]

13 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Naomi Osaka to beat (+1.5 sets) Iga Swiatek with bet365 at 4.33 with bet365

Amanda Anisimova to beat Liudmila Samsonova at 2.5 with bet365

Viktorija Golubic to beat Anastasia Potapova at 4.33 with bet365

Olga Danilovic to beat (+1.5 sets) Danielle Collins at 2.2 with bet365

Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Pavel Kotov at 2.3 with bet365

Some great value on these 5 picks above. Good luck.

Good start 

[Polio]

Great match between Osaka and Świątek. The best I've seen in the last year. In an interview for Polish television, Iga said that the level of the match was due to the conditions on the court. The court was wet, fast, the ball did not slow down after bouncing, so Iga couldn't catch her pace. Such conditions naturally favored Osaka - a specialist in hard surfaces. There were many situations during the match in which Iga was unable to anticipate the flight of the ball and positioned herself incorrectly to hit. The most important thing is that she did not give up, fought to the end and took advantage of Osaka's moment of doubt
A match of the quality like Nadal and Medvedev from AO 2022 or Federer and Djokovic from the Wimbledon final Certainly worthy of the final.

If similar conditions continued in the following days, i.e. a heavy court, favoring players solid on clay, those who hit the flat, fast ball, who of the men and women would this favor? Medvedev? Hurkacz? There was once the FO where, at the beginning of the tournament, Federer said something similar to what Iga said yesterday and Wawrinka has won the title.

[neilovan]

The players that are scheduled for a covered court, or who win their matches quickly on an outside court have a big advantage going forward.

So Vekic, Badosa, Yastremska, Sabalenka, Rybakina etc are stting in the pound seats.  They can go shower, cool down, have a massage and go and rest up. Everyone else is in this stop start mode which burns energy and throws them off their normal patterns. Others like Vondrousova are sitting at a crucial stage of a stop start match, whch can be super annoying, and draining on energy.

I think these stoppages will not help someone like Collins, who is probably running on fumes (she has played a mountain of tennis recently). 

[CzechPunter]

The rain has been very annoying so far, lots of matches affected in ways that were hard to predict. I'll go through tomorrow's card to see if there's anything I like. Collins' loss will at least give her some time off for the other parts of the season, and she should have good chances on faster surfaces.

[neilovan]

Loaded up on Gracheva . She looks in total control. Probably the kiss of death. She was 3-0 when I wrote this.

Monfils looks done.

Edited May 30 by neilovan