Tennis Tips - May 6 - May 12

[CzechPunter]

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[Grass Cash]

It's a grind out here today @CzechPunter

Fruhvirtova is dominating as I expected, but I'm being extra patient, and haven't bet anything yet.  The other matches I liked today but did not bet was Zarazua and Monteiro. It would have been a lay on Moutet. Something smelled fishy with him.. Maybe he is saving energy for the French open, and I am unclear of his current form. They had Monteiro as a small underdog. He's definitely a good/explosive clay court player at times. I've seen him win matches on grass also, but that is a risky situation to try. 

I won alot of money on NHL Stanley cup playoffs, and NBA playoffs. 11 team parlay. David Pastrnak of the Czech Republic scored the winning goal in game 7 overtime I needed to secure the parlay. I thought he might be the most revered current male athlete in your country.

Will back Linda if she drops the second set to win the match, but should be straight sets. The odds are terrible on her now. I would pick Osorio to beat Rus, but it's not something I really want to bet. I think Osorio is the rightful favorite in the match, but I also think it's a pretty tight match, and I'd give Osorio like a 62% chance to win. 

The patience payed off for me yesterday because I almost fell into the trap of backing Niemeier again, but I have blacklisted her as a betting option. There is just other players to choose from, and my results are not promising going with her. Brenda Fruhvirtova destroyed her on the scoreline. These sisters are clearly the real deal, and Linda has grandslam potential. Maybe that's crazy to say, but I really don't think so at all. I have not seen Brenda play very much. What is your opinion on Brenda, or the ceiling of Linda's career vs Linda Noskova?

update: Now that Muller has won the first set. I will probably just watch the Fruhvirtova match, and see what happens. It is not impossible that Golubic comes back to win. I will need a 2.0 number, and then I would evaluate betting Linda. It doesn't make sense but I do think Muller will beat Albot instead, and that might have been the safe bet. 

*corrected error. I thought Brenda was the older sister, Got that mixed up with something else. 

Edited May 7 by Grass Cash

[Grass Cash]

Linda Fruhvirtova -130 to beat Maria with Williams Hill

I just really like what I saw yesterday in terms of motivation, and Linda was hitting the ball very nice. I don't fully trust the bet, and I don't like to lay  th juice. This is an entertainment bet for me because I want to watch the match, and get pumped for player that I like. 

Bet prediction: 60%

 

[Grass Cash]

Linda/Osaka/Vekic/Carle @9.53 to all win in Rome with STN sports

Bet prediction: 20%

[CzechPunter]

I don't rate Niemeier at all. I think Noskova has a higher ceiling than both Fruhvirtovas, they both need some leaps in improvement honestly.

[Grass Cash]

Yeah. I honestly cosidered Brenda instead, and she beat Townsend fairly easily. You could be right about Noskova.. We will see.. I still think both the sisters are great prospects, but I will have to see more of Brenda. Bad bet I made on Linda, and I cashed out when I saw that Maria was playing really well. Took a loss on the parlay. 

Did anyone see some of the Zarazua - Cocciarretto match.. I have a bet on Zarazua, and I am thinking of cashing out because they are offering me a nice payout, and she is only up 5-2. I was a little bit on tilt when I made the bet. 

[Grass Cash]

I did just decide to cash out on Zarazua.. It could have cost me alot of profit, but it's not something I trusted to win fully. Cocciarretto could come back and do some epic match. But now I am up money for the day thank god, and can regroup with something tomorrow.. I'll do a writeup when I find something, and hopefully it wins this time. Everytime I post my matches.. they seem to lose, and it's been frustrating. 

update: I forgot to mention that I had two bets on Zarazua. A large and small. I cashed out of the large bet, and will let the small one ride, and see what happens with it. Czech Punter. Lin Zhu is another player I have trouble losing money on. I wonder if it is smart to blacklist her also. I'm certain she is more reliable than Jules Niemeier though. 

update #2: I am also cashing out of the smaller bet. I have lost interest in the blind bet of the match, will consider watching some of it tomorrow, and see how the players are doing. Happy to take the offer. 

Edited May 8 by Grass Cash

[CzechPunter]

Zhu is certainly better than Niemeier and also more reliable, but I think that she's actually yet to win a legit WTA-level match on clay lol!

[Grass Cash]

Yeah , she's bad on clay for sure.. I lost some money on her. Linette looked fantastic by the way .. Who knows how healthy she is at any given moment. 

So I've identified two bets for tomorrow that I'm interested in, and yet to place. Calling all the Tennis Guru's and also @CzechPunter

Nicholas Moreno De Alboran +156 vs Botic

Alexandre Muller +154 vs Fucsovics. 

I know that you are specializing in WTA CP, but I didn't like the matches on that board. So my question is if you have to choose between one of those two underdogs to back. Which would you choose, also maybe why, and if you wouldn't take a chance on either one. You can also write that. Good luck guys, and look forward to hearing your thoughts!

[Grass Cash]

@four-leaf @Torque@sterziyskii@neilovan @ThunderDan9 @CzechPunter what's your opinion of Alboran? We need some action in here guys. Not sure where everybody went. I think former mentioned is a very good athlete compared to alot of the players like Muller for example. Also, has an aggressive smart gameplan with impressive and powerful shotmaking. He's one of these players that fly under the radar that is actually good. So, as of now.. I would probably take Muller off the board, and just go for Alboran. The reasons being he's sort of having a breakthrough in his career now, and has two decent wins under his belt in Rome already. I don't think those players are as good as Botic but on any day they could be. The problem for me with the flying dutchman is he lost to Rinderkech fairly badly only winning a tiebreak recently, and his results this season are poor. He also got trounced by Humbert in Madrid 6-3 6-3 which is to be expected. If you look at his win vs Bagnis.. It is hard to rate that because Bagnis is an older player who retired last tournament after losing first set to Tabilo 6-0. I think you completely throw that result out the window. And, he also beat Svajda who I am very suspicious of his quality, and has a 13-18 career clay court record. That result also gets thrown out the window for me. Alboran has a 89-52 career clay court record, and last month in Marrakech defeated notable players all in order Kuzmanov, Barrere, Diaz Acosta, and in-form Goffin before losing tight three sets to Baena in the quarterfinals. Now Botic will be facing a dynamic and hungry young aggressive player coming for results and money here in Rome. This is an important ranking climb and winnable match.. If anything you could say it's a coin flip betting situation inheriting the value.  

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Edited May 9 by Grass Cash

[Grass Cash]

Nicholas Moreno De Alboran +165 with Circa

Placing medium/large stake with no cashout option on this book. Good luck! I have made the decision, and given analysis already. 

[Torque]

2 minutes ago, Grass Cash said:

Nicholas Moreno De Alboran +165 with Circa

Placing medium/large stake with no cashout option on this book. Good luck! I have made the decision, and given analysis already. 

Not a bet I'd be taking but good luck. Botic is so up and down he could either win easily or lose easily. Personally I'm not convinced by Moreno De Alboran and even less so outside the US as there's really not a lot to go on in that respect. You've got plus money though so I can see the appeal.

[CzechPunter]

Haha I don't think I've ever seen a full match of Alboran, while I still remember some excellent performances from Botic, so I'd be really biased! I've never particularly liked Muller, he doesn't have that X-factor I think, Fucsovics does, but not reliable these days. I'd be just blindly guessing where the value is anyway.

[Grass Cash]

I was going to parlay Medjedovic with Alboran, and he won extremely easily. I am angry about that because clearly was a lock. Hamad is in good form and serving well. He likes clay courts. It's his favorite surface 75-40 on them. I have bad luck with certain situations, so I decided to be conservative. But that was my initial thought process, and then you'd be getting much better odds on Alboran, and well worth the risk. I haven't seen a full match either, but I've watched as much as possible footage, and available information regarding the player. The bet is a lay of Botic who has had poor results this year. The scary part is two easy wins to begin Rome, but I did make an argument for that being irrelevant. 

As I've said there is a high level of risk with this one, and I'm going into it with a clear expectation of a possible loss. My gut told me to do it, and also found some other information online that suggests there is a bit of sharp action on Alboran as well. So, being that was my instinct, and the additional resources I found.. Decided to risk it on a nice number. This match is probably going to be interrupted, and not even played today. 

[Torque]

47 minutes ago, Grass Cash said:

I was going to parlay Medjedovic with Alboran, and he won extremely easily. I am angry about that because clearly was a lock. Hamad is in good form and serving well. He likes clay courts. It's his favorite surface 75-40 on them. I have bad luck with certain situations, so I decided to be conservative. But that was my initial thought process, and then you'd be getting much better odds on Alboran, and well worth the risk. I haven't seen a full match either, but I've watched as much as possible footage, and available information regarding the player. The bet is a lay of Botic who has had poor results this year. The scary part is two easy wins to begin Rome, but I did make an argument for that being irrelevant. 

As I've said there is a high level of risk with this one, and I'm going into it with a clear expectation of a possible loss. My gut told me to do it, and also found some other information online that suggests there is a bit of sharp action on Alboran as well. So, being that was my instinct, and the additional resources I found.. Decided to risk it on a nice number. This match is probably going to be interrupted, and not even played today. 

It's great to read your thoughts @Grass Cash but there really is no such thing as a lock. No player is guaranteed to win, even if there's a very high chance that they will. 

[sterziyskii]

Today I'll go with high stake on Monteiro, Fritz and Cerundolo at [email protected]. Not much to say about these 3 matches. All 3 are big favourites and I don't see a mistake to be made by any of these.

Tabilo is a great match in my opinion as well at 1.60. Tabilo is the better clay player and the more in form one. Might be a tough match but should come out on top.

Edited May 10 by sterziyskii

[Grass Cash]

Thanks for the lesson @Torque, but I think you know what I meant.. Appreciate your teachings though!

[Grass Cash]

And please let me know when you've completed 11 team parlay picking nearly every NHL and NBA first round series correct @ 250/1 odds. Then you can teach me about betting. 

[Grass Cash]

3 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

Today I'll go with high stake on Monteiro, Fritz and Cerundolo at [email protected]. Not much to say about these 3 matches. All 3 are big favourites and I don't see a mistake to be made by any of these.

Tabilo is a great match in my opinion as well at 1.60. Tabilo is the better clay player and the more in form one. Might be a tough match but should come out on top.

I'll take a look to see if the parlay cashes, and cheer for your win. I would definitely stay away from Tabilo. Hanfmann's best surface is clay courts and he just destroyed Mensik in his last match. Hanfmann has a 282-138 career record on clay courts, and Tabilo with 240-141. Tabilo did beat him easily earlier in the year on clay. I am a fan of Hanfmann, and I've lost plenty of money on him. I was very tempted to bet him but since I"ve had poor results.. I can't trust my money there. 

[Stanimal]

21 minutes ago, Grass Cash said:

And please let me know when you've completed 11 team parlay picking nearly every NHL and NBA first round series correct @ 250/1 odds. Then you can teach me about betting. 

Saying this means you are a very bad gambler. Why you need tips from this forum if you won that big odd? 🤣🤣🤣

[Torque]

19 minutes ago, Grass Cash said:

Thanks for the lesson @Torque, but I think you know what I meant.. Appreciate your teachings though!

The post wasn't for your benefit. There are people who read about 'locks' from someone experienced such as yourself and think that means a guaranteed win for whatever reason and bet accordingly. That's who I was aiming at. As for your success in parlays I'm glad for your success and I'm certainly not looking to teach you anything.

[Grass Cash]

@Stanimal sorry you are jealous my friend. 

This is a tennis forum, not betting philosophy page. I place my best information here, and don't claim to be god. I am here to cooperate with tennis information, and not discuss semantics. But, yes I did complete that parlay, and won huge amount of money this past week. 

[harry_rag]

12 minutes ago, Grass Cash said:

@Stanimal sorry you are jealous my friend. 

This is a tennis forum, not betting philosophy page. I place my best information here, and don't claim to be god. I am here to cooperate with tennis information, and not discuss semantics. But, yes I did complete that parlay, and won huge amount of money this past week. 

Yup it's a tennis forum so let's not have any more pointless after-timing of bets on other sports. No-one cares and it's not relevant. Stick to the co-operating on tennis angle and drop the confrontational tone. Let's draw a line under the subject now and get back to the mutually useful stuff.

[Stanimal]

For today i like only two matches. 

Kenin vs Stramkova at 1.65 local bookie. I watched kenin against jabeur and really liked her, in my opinion she had luck keeping her serve at 2-0 in decisive set but than she started to play very good tennis like in the first set. Sramkova in the other hand i think she reached now her best result in her career, but got some weak players in her way. Kenin is by far the better player. 

Barthel vs Uchijima at 1.42 local bookie. Barthel won yesterday against erjavec because erjavec was her enemy in the final games, a lot of easy mistakes. Uchijima impressed me especially because she won an itf 100k on hard in japan in 05.05 and in 08.05 won her first match in europe on clay. Uchijima is in her best form. 

Sorry for my mediocre english, isnt my native language. 

Grasscash, as harry_rag said we dont care about your winnings. Here some guys share their infos about tennis matches. You dont need to show of here! Good luck! ☘️

Edited May 12 by Stanimal
Reply for grasscash

[neilovan]

Watching the woman on clay is really something. Nobody can serve the ball. May as well just start the game with an underarm feed,

Take the Mertens match now and she is abysmal. She was 2 all in first set and is on the verge of losing 10 games in a  row for 2-6 0-6. Just pathetic - awful performance . A decent 1st div college player would wipe her off the planet. SHe would be counting points. 

2 picks today. Sorribes Tormo to beat Ostapenko and Kalinskaya to beat Svitolina.  Ostapenko is so similar to Giorgi in strategy. Hit the lights out of the ball. If that does not work, then they are cooked. Ostapenko is a shocking mover on clay. May as well play on ice.  DOes not mean she's not dangerous but every shot is a swing outta her shoes.

For me the 3 best athletes in the woman's game Kostyk, Muchova and Kalinskaya. Kalinskaya should be able to nullify or equal Svitolina's movement, and I think she is just a better ball striker.

Edited May 12 by neilovan