Racing chat -saturday 27th april

[richard-westwood]

As im working ...just having a n early look at the weekend racing .....big race of weekend is bet365 gold cup 

Kinindo kwetu. 9.0 16/1 

Amirite. 8.9. 10/1 

Sam brown 8.4 33/1 

Le Milos. 8.3 8/1 

Does he know. 8.0 28/1 

A very difficult race to rate tbh as a lot of these have only ran on soft since Xmas and now the ground has changed dramatically it's difficult to know where they will be on the tree ........so I've changed tack slightly... with this race .....I've rated as normal .....then historically it's been very difficult for horses over say 11-5 in this race so that cuts out the bottom 3 .....leaving the top 2 again so that's good enough for me .....I'm not saying the others can't win .....in fact I think Sam brown and does he know look overpriced on select form and I could see them placing at big prices but for me I'm looking for value and the top 2 tick the boxes 

5pt Ew top 2

 

[Hotspur88]

@MCLARKE do you know if BetMGM have this race priced up? Just looked but couldn't seem to find it  

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, Hotspur88 said:

@MCLARKE do you know if BetMGM have this race priced up? Just looked but couldn't seem to find it  

Looks like 2 days in advance so possibly tomorrow 

[richard-westwood]

10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Looks like 2 days in advance so possibly tomorrow 

1 hour ago, Hotspur88 said:

@MCLARKE do you know if BetMGM have this race priced up? Just looked but couldn't seem to find it  

 

It's under specials and antepost next to the meeting tab ....I've just seen it 

Edited April 24 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

@MCLARKE do you know if BetMGM have this race priced up? Just looked but couldn't seem to find it  

I tend to bet on the day of the race now that BOG is not offered before

[black rabbit]

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd

An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1

Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1

Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L  + 177 Pts

Edited April 28 by black rabbit

[maxironchin]

 

On 4/24/2024 at 10:17 AM, richard-westwood said:

Kinindo kwetu. 9.0 16/1 

Don't get many 9.0s. Have had a look at the race now and this one seems like a good bet given the ground. Currently 14's on William Hill.

[The Brigadier]

Sandown 1.50

A bumper field to start the day’s ITV action with a maximum twenty runners going to post for this class 2 2M Novices’ Championship Handicap Hurdle. Many are making their handicap debuts so have the potential to be better than their mark although the one I like has already had a run in a handicap. Sam Thomas’s Steel Ally followed up his cosy Wincanton win by pushing subsequent Cheltenham winner Doyen Quest to a neck at Newbury last month with the third, some 9 3/4L back in third, Imperial Saint also winning since to further boost the form. He has been shunted up 7lb for that fine effort and can run well each way. Also on the shortlist is John O’Shea’s Maasai Mara who looks well treated in his first handicap in first time cheek pieces. I can see him running well also.

 

STEEL ALLY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

MAASAI MARA 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5t 12345

 

Leicester 2.05

The feature race of the day at Leicester, and covered by the team at ITV is the 1M class 2 King Richard III Cup Handicap. Last year’s ready 4 1/4L winner Al Mubhir has his ground again and although 7lb higher than that win is most definitely the one they all have to beat. Trained by the in form William Haggas that was his only victory last season and he has been gelded since last seen. He did however come into last year’s race having had a run when 5th in the Lincoln and although the most likely winner is no value at his current odds of around 9/4. I’ll take him on with Tony Coyle & Keane Wood’s mud loving Thunder Roar. A dual winner in the mud last Autumn at York and Doncaster he went down by just half a length to the re-opposing Look Back Smiling (also declared at Haydock) and is a pound better off today. He looks sure to be thereabouts today under Cam Hardie and can be backed each way.

 

THUNDER ROAR 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Sandown 2.25

Just the seven face the starter for this Grade 2 bet365 Oaksey Chase run over 2M 6 1/2F. The best in at the weights by a pound is Patrick Neville’s The Real Whacker who drops in trip and, according to his trainer in the trade press earlier in the week, will relish the drier ground. He looks the most likely winner to me. Paul Nicholl’s Hitman sports blinkers for the first time and at the weights is the likely danger with the Willie Mullins representative Easy Game having to carry a 6lb penalty and also sporting first time cheek pieces. Not a very inspiring race with all bar Fantastic Lady sporting some form of headgear but the pick is The Real Whacker to small stakes.

 

THE REAL WHACKER 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365

 

Haydock 2.45

A ten runner 7F class 2 handicap which is covered by the ITV cameras today and it really does have an open look about it. With the ground riding very soft all bar last year’s winner Rainbow Fire should be in their element. Katie Scott’s Gweedore was runner up last season and has won first time out for the last two seasons and has to be on the shortlist with the selection being the Richard Hannon trained Tacarib Bay. His last five starts have all been on the all-weather which include a 6F listed win last November at Newcastle but he’s equally as effective on the turf as he proved when running some good races in defeat in big handicaps last summer. He obviously likes this track as he’s won two of his three visits here and is currently on the same handicap mark as when scoring over course and distance in July 2022. He looks good each way value for a trainer who’s been amongst the winners recently especially if able to find a firm paying four places.

 

TACARIB BAY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Betfred 1/5 1234

 

Sandown 3.00

The 1m 7 1/2f Grade 1 Celebration Chase looks a match between Willie Mullins’s Cheltenham flop El Fabiolo and Nicky Henderson’s impressive Aintree winner Jonbon with officially just 5lb between the pair in favour of the former. That pair are rated 6lb (Edwardstone next best) and more better than the other five and in what is a race to saviour can be won by Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon who is unbeaten at the Esher track in three starts here including in this race last year. He looked good over further last time but also has speed and may actually cope with the drying ground better than the Mullins runner who has raced exclusively on soft ground and of course has the poor run at Cheltenham to put behind him. It’s hard to split the pair so at the prices the pick will be J P McManus’s Jonbon who will be ridden by Nico De Boinville.

 

JONBON 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365

 

Sandown 3.35

A bumper maximum field of twenty line up for the 3M 4 1/2F bet365 Gold Cup (hands up if you’re old enough to remember the race as the Whitbread Gold Cup). Current favourite is last year’s winner Kitty’s Light who has to be part of the staking plan having run so well when leading over the last in the Grand National a fortnight ago. The quick turnaround doesn’t worry me as he won the Scottish Grand National and this contest with a week between them last year. He’s 5lb higher than last season but the ground appears to have come right for him and Christian Williams’s eight year old looks sure to be thereabouts. An outsider who I feel is overpriced is Anthony Honeyball’s Sam Brown who is arguably the best handicapped horse in the field as he goes up 4lb in future handicaps for his highly creditable run at Aintree a fortnight ago when runner up to Cruz Control under today’s pilot Freddie Gingell. He’s the oldest horse in the race by two years plus and maybe that’s why he’s been neglected in the betting but he had one of today’s rivals in Kinondo Kwetu just under 7L behind that day and on the same terms is a bigger price. Many others have chances but it’s Kitty’s Light and Sam Brown for me.

 

KITTY’S LIGHT 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

SAM BROWN 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

[Antonio Margarettii]

annual invictus 20/1 or rapper 25/1 for the win

[maxironchin]

46 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

hands up if you’re old enough to remember the race as the Whitbread Gold Cup

Oh yes!

[richard-westwood]

2 hours ago, maxironchin said:

 

Don't get many 9.0s. Have had a look at the race now and this one seems like a good bet given the ground. Currently 14's on William Hill.

I think the downside is the distance ....he's going up a lot ...if he gets it he could run well ....but might just conk out ....I like amirite ....just looks the type to relish this trip and ground ....but either will do 😁 

[richard-westwood]

Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂

Edited April 26 by richard-westwood

[anaconda69]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...so obsessed is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂

Horse? Obsessed sorry seen now ha ha 

Edited April 26 by anaconda69

[MCLARKE]

7 hours ago, maxironchin said:

Oh yes!

I remember drinking Whitbread Trophy bitter, "the pint that thinks its a quart"

[Nigwilliam]

4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I remember drinking Whitbread Trophy bitter, "the pint that thinks its a quart"

I was a Tankard drinker in the early 70's. If I remember correctly it was 17p a pint.

[MCLARKE]

8 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

I was a Tankard drinker in the early 70's. If I remember correctly it was 17p a pint.

I worked for Whitbreads in the late 70s, in the canteen you were allowed 2 free pints a day, even the lorry drivers !

The brewery was in the centre of Sheffield, you could smell it from miles away

[LEE-GRAYS]

Last chance saloon wheel fell off on lucky 15 thread 

[FatandHappy1970]

Good Morning.

A very mixed bag on the punting front. "Level" on the week (enjoyed "What A Johnny"). I've been very busy with work so I post when I can. Today's hugely speculative bet is in the 5.20 at Sandown Park. "Sa Majeste". Good Luck to you all! Justin. 🏇.

[Trotter]

9 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

I was a Tankard drinker in the early 70's. If I remember correctly it was 17p a pint.

I got a Silver Tankard for my 18th birthday in 1970 ........ it was the common practise then ....... you're a man now, put your tankard behind the bar at your local !

[Striker]

5.15 Ripon-Helter Skelter 

Think owners "The Horse Watchers" have a nicely handicapped horse on their hands

 

 

11-4 with Bet 365

[LEE-GRAYS]

9 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

I was a Tankard drinker in the early 70's. If I remember correctly it was 17p a pint.

Was 33p a pint in grays about 77-78

[The Equaliser]

15 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Was 33p a pint in grays about 77-78

I had to pay over £8 for a pint of Stella Lager and a small bottle of still water in a Wetherspoons up in London recently.  My favourite beer was Fullers ESB when it was managed properly by bar staff.  No one seems to manage beer properly any more in pubs. It puts me off buying the stuff

[harry_rag]

20 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I got a Silver Tankard for my 18th birthday in 1970 ........ it was the common practise then ....... you're a man now, put your tankard behind the bar at your local !

Did it have a glass bottom so you could make sure no-one slipped the King's shilling into your drink? 

[Trotter]

Just now, harry_rag said:

Did it have a glass bottom so you could make sure no-one slipped the King's shilling into your drink? 

it didn't .......... but rather worryingly I've just had a good look around my flat and I can't find it

The thought that I might have chucked it away in a clear out rather saddens me ..........😢

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I had to pay over £8 for a pint of Stella Lager and a small bottle of still water in a Wetherspoons up in London recently.  My favourite beer was Fullers ESB when it was managed properly by bar staff.  No one seems to manage beer properly any more in pubs. It puts me off buying the stuff

I know rip off normally get beers larger wine from supermarkets lots cheaper now 🍺🍷

[Antonio Margarettii]

1.10 navan - distillate 28/1 ew 

[The Equaliser]

B/Fwd - 70.65 L15's; RC P/L -96.55 (incl L15's)

Had 3 x 0.10 L15's on the Daily = 4.50 pts staked for 12 selections

3.35 San Amirite 1 pt ew at 5/1 7 places*

= 6.50 stakes

* Has anyone got a formula for working out where the value lies in taking Sky bets extra places e.g. I took 5/1 ew for 7 places whereas I could have taken 6/1 with Bet365 for 5 places.  Hopefully, Michael @MCLARKE and/or some other mathematical mastermind can come up with an easy-to-use method for me   

[harry_rag]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Has anyone got a formula for working out where the value lies in taking Sky bets extra places e.g. I took 5/1 ew for 7 places whereas I could have taken 6/1 with Bet365 for 5 places.  Hopefully, Michael @MCLARKE and/or some other mathematical mastermind can come up with an easy-to-use method for me   

A formula might be tricky given the variables (difference in price, how many extra places you're getting, any difference in the place odds fraction, how many runners there are etc.). My gut feel is that only losing a point on the price for 2 extra places isn't a bad deal (though you don't mention what the fractions were for the place elements). I remember reading an article on the subject with regard to extra places in golf outright markets and it concluded that the value was usually in taking the extra places even if the drop in price seemed steep. Admittedly we're talking bigger prices and fields there but I suppose the point is that the instinctive reaction to reject a bet because the price drop is too big might not be correct. Clarkey can probably give a more informed view based on his data stockpile! 

[MCLARKE]

It is indeed very complicated and there is no easy answer.

I did a fairly small analysis when I was allowed to bet with Sky and the conclusion I came to was that you should take the extra places but select the bet at SP because they do not offer BOG in these races.

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

It is indeed very complicated and there is no easy answer.

I did a fairly small analysis when I was allowed to bet with Sky and the conclusion I came to was that you should take the extra places but select the bet at SP because they do not offer BOG in these races.

I feel that Skybet must use some kind of formula.  Sometimes, though you can get a bet at the same price as Bet365 for the extra places so I guess that represents value or is it a dog that's going nowhere?