Racing Chat - Tuesday 12th March (Cheltenham)

[richard-westwood]

It's been a tough few weeks ratings wise ....going sticks of an average 3.6 which is bottom less have made life difficult and Saturdays imperial I changed tack and thought I'd use trends just to help narrow the race and then the untrended ratings get the 1st and 2nd !!!.....so for Cheltenham I'm using untrended ratings (i.e all runners regardless) and the ground is drying ...currently soft...5.6 but could get to good sft (6.3)...later in week hopefully 

Final ratings for ultima hcaps 

Eldorado Allen. 9.0 20/1 

Stumptown    8.9 

Chianti classico. 8.9

Monbeg genius.  8.4

Lord de nesnil   8.4 

As you'd expect a very very difficult race not least because meetingofwaters the fav for Mullins has recently been bought by j p McManus for a large sum so maybe they've got dreams of winning this and the grand national ???....but for me this horse is going to have to improve a lot on what he's shown to date but if he's something special at home and that's why he's bought in then could be dangerous 

I've already got bets Ew on stumptown and Chianti classico so I'm happy with those given I get a run 😃.....the horse that's surprised me is ...eldorado Allen who has jumped to top rated on final weights so I'll be adding 10pt Ew on him at 20/1 ...that looks good value now 

Monbeg genius and lord de nesnil look lively outsiders at big prices ....tough race but the team is set ...let's hope I can get the festival off to a good start .....good luck all 

[calva decoy]

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .

I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .

 

Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .

Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

Edited March 12 by calva decoy

[MCLARKE]

CHAMPION HURDLE

This is a race where the favourite has an extremely strong record. 7 of the last 10 races have been won by the forecast favourite, with a ROI of 67%.

Horses should have had at least 4 wins in the last 6 races. There have been 67 horses that did not meet this criterion and all of them have lost.

The last win should have been in the last 78 days. Those that did not have a record of 0 from 55.

The last win should have been by at least 2 lengths. There were 65 horses that did not and only 1 won.

It is not very exciting but STATE MAN ticks all the boxes but at a skinny price of 2/5.

[MCLARKE]

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

A good run last time is important. 8 of the last 10 winners (from 90 runners) came in the top third last time and returned a profit. The remainder have a record of 2 wins from 130 runs with a loss of 71 points.

For such a competitive handicap the betting is a good guide. Those in the top 6 of the forecast betting have 9 wins from 68 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 152 runs with a loss of 103 points.

Ideally the horse should have had a win in the last 3 runs. These horses have a record of 6 wins from 84 runs with a profit of 17 points.

4 of the last 10 winners (from 31 runners) had their last run at Cheltenham.

The current 4^th favourite STUMPTOWN ticks all these boxes and is available at 9/1 with some bookmakers (6 places).

[richard-westwood]

450 chelt boodles 

Liari. 8.7 12.5 

Eagle fang. 8.5 20/1 

Milan tino. 8.3 9.4 

These three are a bit clear of rest so at decent prices I'll go 10 PT wins all 3 

2pt win doubles choices in both above races 

Edited March 10 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Supreme novices final ratings 

Tullyhill. 9.1 (already backed 9/2)

Slade steel. 8.8 6/1 

Tellherthename. 8.3 

Favourandfortune. 8.2 

Top two look best on ratings ...the other two are lively big prices for Ew hunters ....already backed tullyhill for 20 PT win...so I'll add Slade steel 20pt and 5pt  forecasts both 

 

[richard-westwood]

Champion hurdle 

State man 9.3 

Iberico lord. 8.6 

Nemean lion. 8.6 

Luccia    8.2 

State man should win this easily barring a disaster but you never know what's gonna happen .....already got 10pt Ew on nemean lion at 20/1 ......just for some action I'll back 10pt Ew on iberico too ...it's more fun bets but let's hope for a miracle 🫣🙏

[LEE-GRAYS]

Sleepy 20/1 e/w 👍

[The Brigadier]

Cheltenham 1.30

The 2024 Cheltenham Festival kicks off with a dozen novice hurdlers facing the tape for the usual curtain raiser the 2M 87 yard Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Willie Mullins sets a poser by saddling six of the field and with stable jockey Paul Townend choosing Tullyhill, he looks sure to be thereabouts. It may be Mullins’s arch Irish rival Gordon Elliott though that takes first blood with his Firefox. He beat the very smart Ballyburn on his hurdling debut at this trip and although blowing out in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle in January, that was over 2M 4F and back to the minimum trip and with Jack Kennedy in the plate can get us off to a flyer. He’s worth backing each way with the firms who are paying an extra place.

 

FIREFOX 1 point each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 2.10

A fair sized field of ten line up for the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Novices’ Chase run over just short of two miles. Ireland have won six of the last 9 renewals and that can be extended here with the Gordon Elliott trained Found A Fifty. He went down by a neck to Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival in February and there shouldn’t be much between them here today on identical terms. Willie Mullins runs three with Paul Townend on board Gaelic Warrior who’s been runner up at the Festival in the last two years. He does have questions to answer now though after a lack lustre effort at the Dublin Racing Festival with his tendency to jump out to the right a negative here. This looks one for the Irish with Found A Fifty just shading it.

 

FOUND A FIFTY 1 point each way @ 11/2 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

Cheltenham 2.50

The first handicap of the week is the 23 runner Ultima Handicap run over 3M 1F. As always it’s an open race where you will need plenty of luck in running. Last year’s fourth The Goffer and Willie Mullin’s Meetingofthewaters both holding decent claims but this is a race that normally goes to the home team and it can go the way of Kim Bailey. Bailey has two in the race and although I have slight preference for Chianti Classico it’s also worth backing his other runner Trelawne. Both are novices with the former having only his fourth start over fences. He appears the pick of stable jockey David Bass who will be throwing the horse into the fences whilst Harry Cobden has the ride on the latter who’s novice form over fences stacks up well and he should relish a step up to today’s distance.

 

CHIANTI CLASSICO 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 123456

TRELAWNE 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Despite the defection of reigning champion Constitution Hill we still have a field of eight for the Unibet Champion Hurdle run over 2M 87 yards. Willie Mullins has the very warm favourite in State Man who has won ten of his 12 completed starts under rules and was runner up last year. He is officially 10lb and upwards better than these and it will be a big shock were he not to win. I ca see him being very well backed and going off more a 1/4 shot at post time. He’s hard to oppose with second favourite Irish Point dropping a mile in trip having impressed at Leopardstown over 3M at Christmas. Nicky Henderson supplemented Iberico Lord last week and although on figures he has plenty to find he is an improver who loves soft good, has good form at the track and the form of his Betfair Hurdle victory at Newbury last time out was franked at the weekend in the Imperial Cup. He can make the frame but this is all about State Man who should win.

 

STATE MAN 2 points win @ 4/11 Unibet

 

Cheltenham 4.10

A field of eleven go to post for the 2M 4F Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle. A warm favourite here is the Willie Mullins trained Lossiemouth who was a winner at the Festival last season in the Triumph Hurdle. She looked good when re-appearing in the Unibet Hurdle here on trials day in January and if in the same form will be hard to beat. The one question mark against her mind is the fact that she has yet to race over today’s trip. She wasn’t stopping at the end of her victory last time over 3 furlongs shorter though and connections appear to have no fears of her not staying. However at around the 4/7 mark she is scant value and even though she should win I’m happy to back one against her each way who we know will love the ground, trip and track in the shape of Harry Fry’s Love Envoi. She won the Mares’ Novices Hurdle in 2022 and was runner up in this last year to Honeysuckle. She does have some distance to make up with Lossiemouth on Unibet Hurdle form but at a double figure price she is maybe the value.

 

LOVE ENVOI 1 point each way @ 16/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Cheltenham 4.50

A maximum field of twenty two line up for the 2M 87 yard Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. It has a wide open look about it with big priced winners amongst the roll of honour over the last decade. A chance can be given to many with French trainers Noel George & A Zetterholm holding every chance with one of two J P McMnaus owned runners in the shape of Milan Tino. He’s already got experience of the track having finished third to useful sorts Burdett Road and Sir Gino. At a much bigger price it maybe worth chancing Paul Nolan’s runner Palamon who has the look of one that’s been brought along with this race in mind. A 79 rated horse on the level for Richard Hannon he showed his best form so far over timber when third (beaten 3 3/4L) to the re-opposing Ndaawi and is now 13lb better off. The fourth from that race has won since to give it a boost and although Ndaawi won cosily that day the turn around in the weights may give the chestnut a chance of getting closer at a big price. Many others can be given chances but it’s Milan Tino and Palamon for me.

 

MILAN TINO 1 point each way @ 13/2 Unibet 1/5th 123456

PALAMON 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Cheltenham 5.30

A small but select field of seven go to post for the 3M 6F Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup for amateur riders. The two favourites surprisingly are both racing in a fist time hood and slight preference is for the Emmet Mullins trained Corbetts Cross who may well have won at this fixture last year but for crashing out at the last in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, which is a good guide to the likely winner of this contest. He does have to prove himself over this longer trip as like his biggest danger, the Willie Mullins trained Embassy Gardens but looks all about stamina and can give Derek O’Connor his third victory in the race. Some firms are paying three places on this seven runner contest so it may also be worth a small each way bet on the only horse who has raced beyond 3M in the Sara Bradstock trained Mr Vango who wears first time cheek pieces and was a 60L winner of a handicap over today’s trip at Exeter. He has officially 22lb to find but with some of these having stamina to prove could stay on into a place at a big price.

 

CORBETTS CROSS 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365

MR VANGO 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123

[Zilzalian]

Will be interesting to see how this one gets on in the 2:50 tomorrow.

[Zilzalian]

Just had a good think about the Champion Hurdle and this crossed my mind, Not So Sleepy probably wont win but one thing for sure is it will make it a proper test for the others if it does it's normal trick. I can see a lot of wobbly horses coming to the last, who wins? i don't know but i have been following Nemean Lion even when trained in France so i see no reason not to take the risk, By a German dam (Ninfia) and Golden Horn the sire this one should be still standing at the ars*e end of the race as long as it jumps the bloody hurdles.

[calva decoy]

There's lots of scrolling about to find the relative Cheltenham thread atm & was just going to add that looks like a fair bit of rain due tomorrow morning & going will be soft , which is good , as long as it doesn't go heavy which there's a chance on Cross Country Course for Wednesday's race .

[black rabbit]

Luccia                                                         3 30 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        50/1       - 3rd

Cornel Mustard                                        3 30 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        90/1

Excello                                                        2 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        60/1 

Mordor                                                       4 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        70/1

Pedrito                                                       12 55 S-Cld         1/40th of a pt ew        12/1   { France} 

Busselton                                                   2 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew         80/1

Palamon                                                     4 50 Che/           1/40 th of a pt ew        25/1

Edited March 12 by black rabbit

[Brahmin]

Hi all, well good luck with your 4 days of top racing at Cheltenham 🐎.....soooo some of our selections already backed 🤞

 

W Mullins trains 4 winners @ 11/8.............         State Man & Lossiemouth win by 3L @ 3/1........... G Elliott trains 2 winners  @ 4/1

Meetingofthewaters, The Goffer, Chianti Classico & Stumptown To Finish In The Top 10 @ 9/2 

State Man (15:30) To Win, Quilixios (14:10)  😨  & Ashroe Diamond (16:10) Both Top 4 & Chianti Classico (14:50) Top 7  @  7/1 

 

1.30     Tullyhill     7/2   (Daily Nap)                   Firefox   11/2

2.10     Il Etait Temps    6/1  EW      3RD                       Found a Fifty    8/1  EW     2ND                  3 places

2.50      Meetingofthewaters   5/1                       Stumptown  10/1 EW                               Eklat de Rire   20/1  EW                      6 places 

 

Edited March 12 by Brahmin

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

There's lots of scrolling about to find the relative Cheltenham thread atm & was just going to add that looks like a fair bit of rain due tomorrow morning & going will be soft , which is good , as long as it doesn't go heavy which there's a chance on Cross Country Course for Wednesday's race .

Probably better to put comments on this normal daily thread (although it will have Cheltenham in the title to make it easier for new members who are attracted by the Cheltenham festival).

[maxironchin]

4.50 An Bradan Feasa 2,PT EW

Performs well in soft or heavy ground. Often placed and can win outright, although that will be difficult today. Managed to get 28/1, so good value IMHO.

[Tedthewolf]

Very  quiet here for Cheltenham!

2.50 CH 1.5 e/w on  both  & .25 RFC  VICTTORINO 16/1  LORD DU MESNIL 25/1 both BOG 6 places

[monty63]

 just looked on bet365
and if you think state man going to win champion hurdle with their super boost they will give you evens to win as far as i know
they have not restricted your stake could be wrong

[MCLARKE]

Who needs Cheltenham !

AW selection

Southwell 8.00

MOULIN BOOJ

[fd1972uk]

1330 main betmon tullyhill, also got a boost on mystical power (along with freebie multis).

Small bet on tellherthename

1410

Il etait temps as part of a treble with state man and Lossiemouth

1450

Chianti classico and meeting of the waters

Small bet on eldorado Allen

1530 irish point

Have done state man in a multi and evens boost

Small bet on iberico lord

1610 Lossiemouth part of treble

Small bet on echoes in rain

1650 ndaawi and liari

1730 Salvador Ziggy and Corbetts cross

Good luck all.

 

Edited March 12 by fd1972uk

[richard-westwood]

On 3/10/2024 at 2:47 PM, richard-westwood said:

Supreme novices final ratings 

Tullyhill. 9.1 (already backed 9/2)

Slade steel. 8.8 6/1 

Tellherthename. 8.3 

Favourandfortune. 8.2 

Top two look best on ratings ...the other two are lively big prices for Ew hunters ....already backed tullyhill for 20 PT win...so I'll add Slade steel 20pt and 5pt  forecasts both 

 

Off the mark.....+90.00

[fd1972uk]

The 'experts 'writing off gaelic warrior, so guess he's a banker now, lol

[richard-westwood]

On 3/10/2024 at 11:46 AM, richard-westwood said:

It's been a tough few weeks ratings wise ....going sticks of an average 3.6 which is bottom less have made life difficult and Saturdays imperial I changed tack and thought I'd use trends just to help narrow the race and then the untrended ratings get the 1st and 2nd !!!.....so for Cheltenham I'm using untrended ratings (i.e all runners regardless) and the ground is drying ...currently soft...5.6 but could get to good sft (6.3)...later in week hopefully 

Final ratings for ultima hcaps 

Eldorado Allen. 9.0 20/1 

Stumptown    8.9 

Chianti classico. 8.9

Monbeg genius.  8.4

Lord de nesnil   8.4 

As you'd expect a very very difficult race not least because meetingofwaters the fav for Mullins has recently been bought by j p McManus for a large sum so maybe they've got dreams of winning this and the grand national ???....but for me this horse is going to have to improve a lot on what he's shown to date but if he's something special at home and that's why he's bought in then could be dangerous 

I've already got bets Ew on stumptown and Chianti classico so I'm happy with those given I get a run 😃.....the horse that's surprised me is ...eldorado Allen who has jumped to top rated on final weights so I'll be adding 10pt Ew on him at 20/1 ...that looks good value now 

Monbeg genius and lord de nesnil look lively outsiders at big prices ....tough race but the team is set ...let's hope I can get the festival off to a good start .....good luck all 

Chianti does the business .. ..+56.00 .....that's +146.00 from two races 

[fd1972uk]

Highland Hunter, sad news.

[TomG]

Come on Love Envoi... drifting to 11s, but no bother!

[azzybear]

embassey gardens 5.30

[fd1972uk]

MGM had a double odds, last minute changed from Lark in the Morning to Latin Verse, lol.

Edited March 12 by fd1972uk

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Who needs Cheltenham !

AW selection

Southwell 8.00

MOULIN BOOJ

Many thanks, Michael; I recovered all my Cheltenham losses and made a small profit

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Who needs Cheltenham !

AW selection

Southwell 8.00

MOULIN BOOJ

Won. BSP 4.60

63 from 236, LSP 59.44

[SoberC]

On 3/11/2024 at 8:21 AM, The Brigadier said:

 

 

Chianti Classico & Corbetts Cross (Nap)

 

From the Podcast, great picks. Thanks for the detailed analysis.

Edited March 13 by SoberC