Tennis Tips - October 23 - October 29

[four-leaf]

5 minutes ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I didn't think it was the wrong favourite.  I just didn't think Zheng should be a low as 1.3. 

Zheng will probably win,  but the amount of times Vekic would win this at this price would be profitable. 

Well then don't recommend people betting on it then. It's a pretty big difference between me posting Ben Shelton winning in 2 sets last sunday at 3.10 and you posting Donna or Daria to win today because I could quarantee Shelton winning in 2.

[Smiles Tennis]

6 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Well then don't recommend people betting on it then. It's a pretty big difference between me posting Ben Shelton winning in 2 sets last sunday at 3.10 and you posting Donna or Daria to win today because I could quarantee Shelton winning in 2.

You can't guarantee anything.  I don't recommend people bet my bets, I just share them.  People can do what they want. 

 

[motorhead66]

1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

I'd like to bet 50/50 chances at 3/1 all day please 😆

ahahah exactly, give me those all day long.

[motorhead66]

46 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Well then don't recommend people betting on it then. It's a pretty big difference between me posting Ben Shelton winning in 2 sets last sunday at 3.10 and you posting Donna or Daria to win today because I could quarantee Shelton winning in 2.

guarantee? not even 1,01 shots are a certain😅

[four-leaf]

32 minutes ago, motorhead66 said:

guarantee? not even 1,01 shots are a certain😅

Well you gotta be spot on if you're certain.

[motorhead66]

2 hours ago, motorhead66 said:

Good fight from Donna so far, Smiles right on the money here too imho, hope I am not jinxing. 

 

Bailly @2 vs Edmund looks nice to me, looked to have adapted well to indoor (nice match vs Ruiz) and the brit's form is kind of a question mark.

worst bet of the month.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, motorhead66 said:

worst bet of the month.

Don't be so hard on yourself...

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

You can't guarantee anything.  I don't recommend people bet my bets, I just share them.  People can do what they want. 

 

Sure I could acctually guarantee that Shelton would win in Tokyo final 2023 at 3.10. I would call it a spot on bet which was way to high priced.

[CzechPunter]

@four-leaf I understand that you felt really strongly about Shelton, but let's not throw around the "guaranteed" word in betting discussions.

[CzechPunter]

Lin Zhu (+1.5 sets) to beat Ludmilla Samsonova at 2.04 with Unibet

Despite Zhu having some minor medical issues against Kudermetova, I like the odds for her getting at least a set against Samsonova, who's yet to begin her Elite Trophy campaign. She was playing incredibly determined tennis against Kudermetova, and it really feels like she's the home underdog that will get some upsets, perhaps even several after the first one. She's improved massively this year, and it's never easy to say which Samsonova will turn up.

[sterziyskii]

Rune to beat Baez at @1.50.

Rune hasn't been in form all summer but this is the match that will pretty much decide whether he will go to the ATP Finals. He came back from a set down winning 80% + on his first serve in the last 2 sets. It was against Kecmanovic so it might not be a big thing but he showed character. Also last year Rune was playing amazingly well in the last part of the season winning big in Paris against Djokovic. 

 

Sinner to beat Sonego 2:0 at @1.50.

Sinner played extremely well against Shelton. On hard he did beat also Alcaraz and Medvedev 2:0 sets and did destroy Sonego 3:0 at the US Open.

Humbert (+1.5 sets) against Jarry at @1.28.

The odds are a little low on this one but I think that with Humbert's playstyle, he will make Jarry defend every inch of the court and will eliminate Jarry's winning shots. 

Combined at @2.70.

Edited October 25, 2023 by sterziyskii

[James32021950]

Good morning all

Humbert to beat Jarry

H2H 1-0 

Both players have confidence and form at the moment, I’m just favouring Humbert’s superior indoor court skills to bring home a win.

[Robinnho]

Ostapenko to beat Vekic at 1.58 with Pinnacle.

Both players are inconsistence but Osta is fresh and physically ready. Vekic is demoralised after yesterday long-match loss and could mentally and physically affect her performance today.

[Robinnho]

2 hours ago, Robinnho said:

Ostapenko to beat Vekic at 1.58 with Pinnacle.

Both players are inconsistence but Osta is fresh and physically ready. Vekic is demoralised after yesterday long-match loss and could mentally and physically affect her performance today.

Ostapenko won 4-6, 6-4, 6-1.

Vekic was aggressive from the start and hope to win by straight sets to have any chance to advance to the SF but as expected, she felt the physical strain in latter stage and lost the final set 6-1.

[Robinnho]

Van de Zandschulp to beat AAF at 2.40 with Pinnacle.

This is a value bet from my analysis. H2H 1-1 and Van won the latest matchup last year with a higher odd than today. Van is also better form wise and played his last match 3 days ago whereas AAF played an evening match yesterday. 

[four-leaf]

21 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

@four-leaf I understand that you felt really strongly about Shelton, but let's not throw around the "guaranteed" word in betting discussions.

That was my only bet last week and I was dead sure it was gonna happen

[Smiles Tennis]

Ostapenko to beat Qinwen Zheng - 2.62 on Betfair

Also Kudermetova to beat Samsonova - 2.66 on Betfair

Both too high in my opinion. 

[CzechPunter]

Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Caroline Garcia at 2.20 with Bet365

Haddad Maia doesn't really look like the underdog to me here, she finally looked completely healthy against Keys, and I think that her level was perhaps slightly higher than Garcia's in her match against the American. Not a big edge, but I see this as a coin-flip, with perhaps a very minor edge for Haddad Maia.

[sterziyskii]

On 10/26/2023 at 12:35 AM, sterziyskii said:

Rune to beat Baez at @1.50.

Rune hasn't been in form all summer but this is the match that will pretty much decide whether he will go to the ATP Finals. He came back from a set down winning 80% + on his first serve in the last 2 sets. It was against Kecmanovic so it might not be a big thing but he showed character. Also last year Rune was playing amazingly well in the last part of the season winning big in Paris against Djokovic. 

 

Sinner to beat Sonego 2:0 at @1.50.

Sinner played extremely well against Shelton. On hard he did beat also Alcaraz and Medvedev 2:0 sets and did destroy Sonego 3:0 at the US Open.

Humbert (+1.5 sets) against Jarry at @1.28.

The odds are a little low on this one but I think that with Humbert's playstyle, he will make Jarry defend every inch of the court and will eliminate Jarry's winning shots. 

Combined at @2.70.

💸

For tomorrow I will go with Hurkacz at 1.40. Not much to explain here, Hurkacz is just the better player and I don't think he will have a problem.

Humbert against Stricker at 1.50. Humbert is the better player and is the player that wins more regularly on the ATP tour. He scored wins against a lot of great players, doing well in this one against Giron and Jarry. Stricker is more of a Challanger player and I don't thonk he can win this one.

The third one that I will go with Rune at @1.40. If so, these 3 combined at @2.94 again just like the previous one.

Edited October 26, 2023 by sterziyskii

[Robinnho]

13 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Ostapenko to beat Qinwen Zheng - 2.62 on Betfair

Also Kudermetova to beat Samsonova - 2.66 on Betfair

Both too high in my opinion. 

Agree with you that the odds are too high.  Also agree that Osta has a higher chance to win than the odd suggest. Zheng's low odd is because she is the local favourite and she will be the only local in the SF if Samsonova beat Kudermetova today.

As for Samsonova low odd, imho it is an indication of her chance to win this match. Kudermetova is already out of the SF (single) but she is in the Final for the double so she may not go all out for today's match and save it for her doubles final. So I find it more logical to bet on Samsonova to win it by straight sets or with a game handicap of -3.5.

[Duffyduck74]

Today I play:

Zverev - Rublev @ 2.00 | 1/10

Kombi {Medvedev - Khachanov
              Tiafoe - Sinner
              Shevchenko - Auger Aliassime} @ 2.26 | 2/10

Kombi {Humbert - Stricker
              Rune - Etcheverry} @ 2.10 | 2/10

[Robinnho]

Zheng to beat Zhu in straight sets at 1.65 with Pinnacle.

Zheng is the better player and the better hope for China to win the Elite Trophy. So I am betting on Zheng to repeat her feat in Asian Games final between the 2 Chinese. 

[sterziyskii]

For today I think to go with Medvedрv and Hurkacz at @2.20. 

What do you think about Rublev- Sinner and Rune - Auger?

Two risky matches I would say but I'm feeling Sinner prevailing and Auger winning at least a set at @1.50. Watched and played most of Rune and Auger matches so far. Rune is really shaky in a lot of moments. Happily for me he won his last match but he won his last serve in the tiebreak thanks to the net and Etcheverry double faulted his last serve. Auger plays just like he did when he won the tournament last year, wasn't in form all season but he does well on the hard courts in Europe most of the time.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

For today I think to go with Medvedрv and Hurkacz at @2.20. 

What do you think about Rublev- Sinner and Rune - Auger?

Two risky matches I would say but I'm feeling Sinner prevailing and Auger winning at least a set at @1.50. Watched and played most of Rune and Auger matches so far. Rune is really shaky in a lot of moments. Happily for me he won his last match but he won his last serve in the tiebreak thanks to the net and Etcheverry double faulted his last serve. Auger plays just like he did when he won the tournament last year, wasn't in form all season but he does well on the hard courts in Europe most of the time.

Things have started, I would say before or right now just in the beginning of Humbert v Hurkacz that I see Humbert having a chance to beat the polish guy.