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Racing Chat - Saturday 7th Oct


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3,35 Ascot HICKORY  has generally been running well apart from howler at Doncaster 3 runs back looks a lot more to come from this horse  so worth a  bet 1pt e/w 5places bog 14/1 corals. ORBAAN is also worth a 1pt e/w bet 5p  NOT BOG 20/1 seems to be running into form now is well handicapped  so should go well at a decent price  would think  it will go off shorter so have taken the bigger price without bog. To be honest  Fresh would have been a 3pt e/w  bet had it been double figure price but at 6/1 ill take my chance else where as he has been struggling to get his head in front this year but will be keeping a close eye on it as has been dropped to fair mark.  4PTS  Invested.

Good Luck All.

 

 

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Madam  Ambassador                                        1 30 New/        1/40th of a pt ew     33/1           -    Won    

Ropey Guest                                                       3 35 Asc/           1/40th of a pt ew    44/1

Designer                                                               1 50 Asc/          1/40th of a pt ew    12/1

Happy Romance                                                 3 00 Asc/           1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Commander Crouch                                           2 05 Asc/          1/40th of a pt ew    36/1            -   2nd

Love Billy Boy                                                       2 45 Red/          1/40th of a pt ew   36/1

Vultan                                                                    2 20 Cra/           1/40th of a pt ew   38/1

Bosh                                                                       7 30 Wol/           1/40th of a pt win  12/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 171.95 pts

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Hickory is running Friday .....sorry ..meant to reply to ted @Tedthewolf 😯

Nope they have pulled it out. Orbaan had already been pulled out of that race too.

Fun and games i'm hoping for a big run from both them tomorrow.

looking forward to seeing your ratings  in that 3,35 race to see how my two rate i also like  Atrium in it  but hoping it drifts to 25's before i snipe in.

 

Edited by Tedthewolf
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Newmarket 1.30
A eleven runner fillies handicap run over 10F starts the day proceedings off for the eight ITV races today. Charlie Appleby’s Whispering Words makes her handicap debut off of what maybe a workable mark but has been well found in the market and it maybe worth opposing her with the Roger Varian trained Red Danielle who is also making her handicap debut. Her penultimate run points to her been well handicapped here as she ran the now 105 rated Sweet Memories to half a length at levels so off of an initial mark of 90 looks well treated here.
 
RED DANIELLE 1 point each way @ 6/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 1.50
The listed 5F Blue Eagle Rous Stakes has attracted a field of nine and can go to Kevin Ryan’s Emaraaty Ana who is the highest rated in the field. The likely fast ground is ideal for the seven year old who comes into the race having run well in 6F listed contests at Newmarket and York this autumn finishing placed in both. The gelding is dropping a furlong today but he has winning form over the minimum trip and with ground conditions to suit can take this contest under Neil Callan.
 
EMARAATY ANA 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill
 
Newmarket 2.05
A big field of twenty two for the Tattersalls October Auction Stakes for two year olds run over 6F. It’s hard to look beyond the favourite here in the Heather Main trained Zoulu Chief who will be ridden by Gina Mangan. He’s the clear top rated and his latest nursery victory at York is working out very well with the runner up, third and fourth all winning since. He’s progressive and despite the big field will be very hard to beat.
 
ZOULU CHIEF 3 points win @ EVS bet365
 
Ascot 2.25
Shadwell Stud set a poser in this Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes by declaring both Israr and Al Aasy and with the owners number one jockey Jim Crowley picking the latter he’s is the one to be with. He’s been a bit of an enigma over the years but has done nothing wrong on his last three starts, winning in listed and Group 3 company at Newbury and Haydock respectively and running well in defeat in Ireland last time out. Very fast ground may not be his desired surface but he may just be too good for his seven rivals here.
 
AL AASY 1 point win @ 7/4William Hill
 
Redcar 2.45
It’s hard to look beyond the short favourite Dragon Leader in this 6F listed William Hill Two Year Old Trophy run over 6F. Clive Cox’s two year old is favourably treated here being 8lb and more ahead of his ten rivals. Owned by Kennet Valley Syndicates he took a valuable sales contest at York in August in decent fashion and wasn’t disgraced on much softer ground when runner up in a similar contest at Doncaster’s Leger meeting. Back on better ground he can outclass his rivals.
 
DRAGON LEADER 3 points win @ 4/6 BetVictor
 
DRAGON LEADER 4/6 & ZOULOU CHIEF Evs (2.05 Newmarket) 2 points win double BetVictor
 
Ascot 3.00
The 6F Group 3 John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes has attracted ten runners with the top three Commanch Falls, Garrus and Jumby all carrying 3lb penalties. Ed Walker’s Dark Trooper may be the value play here with conditions to suit and although he has officially 9lb to make up on the principals is still progressing having won his last four starts including twice over course and distance. Paul Mulrennan gets the call up to ride and looks decent each way value.
 
DARK TROOPER 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123
 
Newmarket 3.15
Eight smart fillies line up for this year’s renewal of the Group 1 Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes. John & Thady Gosden’s Inspiral is a warm favourite and if bringing her A game to the table will be very hard to beat under Frankie Dettori who’s looking for his 500th win at his home track before he retires. She has an outstanding chance and although she hasnt always been the most consistent in her career is the clear pick here. The only horse close to her on ratings is the French challenger Mqse De Sevigne who is chasing a hat trick for her master trainer Andre Fabre but may prefer easier ground.
 
INSPIRAL 2 points win @ Evs William Hill
 
Ascot 3.35
The days ‘cavalry charge’ is the 7F Howden Challenge Cup with a maximum field of eighteen declared. There are many form lines tying in with the likes of Quinault and Baradar and its the James Fanshawe trained Hickory who looks the value each way bet. He’s 7lb better off for a 1/2L beating from Baradar over course and distance in July and 5lb better off for a 2L beating from Quinault over course and distance last month. 7F and fast ground are his optimum conditions and as long as stall 2 isn’t a negative (last year low number were a positive) can run a big race. I also can’t resist a tiny each way saver on last year’s winner Escobar who, following some lack lustre runs, is now 13lb lower. He showed some sparkle last time and in first time cheek pieces is a lively outsider.
 
HICKORY 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
ESCOBAR 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345
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3:35 Ascot

Bless Him 14/1 bet 365 - bog

Harry Brown 15/2 bet 365 bog

2 x singles - each way double - 5 places

Hayley Turner has been in fine form in the last fortnight, operating at a 27 per cent strike-rate in that period, and heads to the Berkshire track for two rides. - Source  - Racing Post.

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Newmarket 1:30

Draw data throws up two runners due to an anomaly in the four years of data. One is adjusted the other is without tasking the anomaly into account

whispering words

Queens Regent

both win 

horses don’t usually run green after winning as this one was reported to last time out

Madam Ambassador 

each way

Edited by Sporting Sam
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On 10/6/2023 at 12:06 AM, black rabbit said:

Madam  Ambassador                                        1 30 New/        1/40th of a pt ew     33/1           -    Won    

Ropey Guest                                                       3 35 Asc/           1/40th of a pt ew    44/1

Designer                                                               1 50 Asc/          1/40th of a pt ew    12/1

Happy Romance                                                 3 00 Asc/           1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Commander Crouch                                           2 05 Asc/          1/40th of a pt ew    36/1

Love Billy Boy                                                       2 45 Red/          1/40th of a pt ew   36/1

Vultan                                                                    2 20 Cra/           1/40th of a pt ew   38/1

Bosh                                                                       7 30 Wol/           1/40th of a pt win  12/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 171.95 pts

Franny from the clouds on Madam 😃  ok dog&duck time  beer curry cat house  on franny' and madams efforts

+ a fine run by commander crouch also   + bosh still to run 😄

Edited by black rabbit
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On 10/6/2023 at 7:48 AM, Tedthewolf said:

Nope they have pulled it out. Orbaan had already been pulled out of that race too.

Fun and games i'm hoping for a big run from both them tomorrow.

looking forward to seeing your ratings  in that 3,35 race to see how my two rate i also like  Atrium in it  but hoping it drifts to 25's before i snipe in.

 

Orbaan  & Hickory really disappointing but was able to snipe a little bit of 30's  e/w with betfair sports book on Atrium.

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Wolverhampton 1730

 

Kaaress

win

looks a good horse and the fact that she’s still in a class six on a hat trick.

Ran chic Columbine close and got closer than Lexington belle and both ran in a class two latest. Likely hard to beat here.

On Borrowed Time 

each way

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Fontwell 5:45

Sea Invasion

win

debut for Chris Gordon 

split a pair of subsequent rules winners over points. One of them waspy ran crambo rated 131 to within a few lengths 

now cost 110£k and likely to be very good in time.

German pedigree out of a flat winner assures pace too.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Inches away from a win and a 50/1 third.

musnt be greedy doing well enough.

6:40 Belmont park America
Rebels Romance
Win

Rebels romance and war like goddess reverse forecast 
Seeks to complete again as the route to the breeders cup begins here. Unseated jockey last time and that means the horse has enjoyed a complete run weight free and horses invariably say thanks next time out ala Guineas and several races this summer.
William Buick on board and a big threat here is War like Goddess who won this race last year.
Add Stone Age and we have the breeders cup turf 123.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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