Premier League Predictions > September 16th to 18th

[harry_rag]

Gird your loins, "proper" footy is back! Some intriguing games there; Everton's season could go from bad to worse when they play host to Arsenal, hopefully West Ham will give Man City a decent test and, perhaps, outperform odds of 11/2. Man U not the most appealing 23/20 shots at home to Brighton on current form. Any bets or thoughts on these games, please share them with us here.

[tschurchy]

A Villa and Fulham double is taking my eye at 2.18 @ bet365. 

Brighton feel like a shrewd bet against United too. I'll take that in a single.

[Charon84]

I have been back to the drawing board this summer and made up a new betting model (this time based on linear regression). It's supposed to point out good dogs with a  handicap. Hope this one is more promising then last one 😁 (though I already loved the process).

The model predicts a Brentford +1 @1.98 as a good bet this round. So that one I take. No other bets.

[thfc]

I like the look of Brentford +1 on the handicap as @Charon84 has put up.

I also like the look of Bournemouth +1 @2.1.  Chelsea just can't be trusted at short odds at the moment- sure they beat Luton at home, but lost at home to Forest last time out (who I think i'm right in saying had the worst away record last season).  Bournemouth were a bit unlucky not to win at Brentford last time out, and this could be a good time to play Chelsea right after the international break.  

Until Luton can show they are capable of playing at this level, i'll be backing their opposition, especially when they are away from home.  Fulham at around 1.67 feels fairly generous.  

[ivans82]

Most intriguing game this week Everton v Arsenal . Everton playing abysmally and Arsenal winning but not impressing . This match was the beginning of Arsenals season unravelling last year , will the same happen again?...............firmly with tschurchy......at the odds Villa Fulham double looks good .

[MMFloors]

Home	Away	Model Home Hcp.	Book H. Hcp.
Wolves	Liverpool	-0,80	1,25
Aston Villa	Crystal Palace	-0,22	-0,50
Manchester Utd	Brighton	-0,01	-0,25
Tottenham	Sheffield Utd	-2,26	-1,75
West Ham	Manchester City	1,68	1,25
Everton	Arsenal	0,57	1,00
Newcastle Utd	Brentford	-0,36	-1,00
Bournemouth	Chelsea	0,97	0,75

This is the outcome of my betting model for this week. Matches Fulham - Luton and Nottham - Burnley don't qualify because Luton and Burnley don't have at least 4 matches of data.

For me only Wolves and Brenford stand out as a dog with an model/book difference of >0.5. But the underlying stats for Wolves - Liverpool match are unreliable due the fact that Liverpool had 2 early red cards in recent matches. So only Brentford for me as said (can't find any counter indications).

If you don't play dogs only; than Spurs is a good one apparently (surely when the line was still -1.5).

Edited September 15, 2023 by MMFloors

[malabgd]

Wolverhampton vs Liverpool

2023-09-16T13:30+02:00

 

Wolverhampton

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Joseph Hodge (0/0 m)

Suspended: -

 

Liverpool

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Trent Alexander-Arnold (4/0 d), Thiago Alcantara (0/0 m), Ibrahima Konate (2/0 d)

Suspended: Virgil van Dijk (3/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Over/Under Goals
Wolverhampton 1 home games	Liverpool 2 away games

100%	Over 1.5 goals	100%
100%	Over 2.5 goals	50%
100%	Over 3.5 goals	0%
100%	Over 4.5 goals	0%
0%	Over 5.5 goals	0%
0%	Under 1.5 goals	0%
0%	Under 2.5 goals	50%
100%	Over 0.5 goals at half-time	100%
0%	Over 1.5 goals at half-time	50%
0%	Over 2.5 goals at half-time	0%

[MMFloors]

City as a fav with the line -1 is also good option now. Still for me; I bet dogs.

[harry_rag]

Slow start today as laptop is tetchy! Gakpo at 3.75 will do for an opening salvo.

[harry_rag]

Welbeck at 3.9 is a system bet that doesn't really grab me on an instinctive level. Alvarez 9/4, on the other hand, is short of being a system bet but I like it enough based on his stats. Part matched on Fernandes at 4, will see if I can get the rest at 3.9.

[Charon84]

I unfortunately missed the line change on Brighton from +0.25 to +0.50...otherwise would have taken that one even though the 'advantage' wasn't >0.5 but 0.49.

Line Brentford changed to +0.75 now.

[harry_rag]

2 out of 3 for a decent enough return yesterday. Solanke at 3.8 today. Another system bet that doesn't fill me with that much enthusiasm so hopefully he does a Welbeck in that respect.

[yossa6133]

Forest with an attacking line up and there should be plenty of goals, over 2.5 goals is just better than evens looks a fair bet. 

Awoniyi keeps scoring and 6/4 is also fair enough to get another tonight.

[MMFloors]

With some analysis and back testing I think my model should also work fine for favs with >0.5 advantage. So from next week on I adjust for favs and dogs.

[ivans82]

Glad to see Aaron Ramsdale dropped by Arsenal , looked shaky towards the back of last season and has fumbled around a bit this , Despite Artetas explanation .

[harry_rag]

17 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Forest with an attacking line up and there should be plenty of goals, over 2.5 goals is just better than evens looks a fair bet. 

Awoniyi keeps scoring and 6/4 is also fair enough to get another tonight.

I was of a similar mind but wasn't to be.

[yossa6133]

11 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I was of a similar mind but wasn't to be.

Yeah, it was the right kind of open game but the goals didn't go in. Burnley were unlucky with VAR disallowing the goal and that cost me from a betting perspective!