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Racing chat- Saturday 5th Aug


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The final day of five of the Goodwood Festival concludes with the feature race being the competitive Stewards Cup run at 15:35, one of four races shown by the ITV cameras who also take in a brace of races from Newmarket.
The ground has dried up over the past two days at both courses but with plenty of rain around today I expect the tracks to be riding on the soft side again. Here’s my thoughts and selections on how to beat the bookmakers.
 
Goodwood 13:50
We start the days festivities off with the Coral Stewards’ Sprint Handicap run over 6F, a consolation race for those that didn’t make the cut for the Stewards Cup later on the card. Only fourteen are left here and to be honest it has a very modest look about it.
The Harry & Roger Charlton trained Zaman Jemil has been chalked up the early favourite under Ryan Moore having won an eight runner handicap at Thirsk 31 days ago. He’s been raised 6lb for that run and as this is an early closing closing race he carries a 6lb penalty so is racing off of his correct mark. He’s lightly raced so could have improvement to come but he’s unproven on soft ground so at his current price can be left alone.
Many A Star took this last year for the father and son team of Paul & Oliver Cole and returns here on a 2lb lower mark so is weighted to run well but were the ground to ride soft then that could be a major problem for him as he has no form on soft and has actually been pulled out before due to a soft surface.
One horse who won’t mind any cut in the ground is Alice Hayne’s Live In The Moment whose soft ground form figures read 4116. He’s 3lb lower than his last winning mark and although he’s drawn on the outside I think he’s worth chancing to small stakes here each way with 7lb claimer Shariq Mohd on board who’s won five of his 69 career rides.
 
LIVE IN THE MOMENT 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Newmarket 14:05
The first of two races shown by Ed and the gang at ITV at the Headquarters of British racing is this 6F class 2 fillies nursery where we have four last time out winners amongst a field of ten.
Say Hello looks the one to beat for trainer Ralph Beckett and jockey Rob Hornby having spread eagled her field on her handicap debut in first time blinkers over course and distance 8 days ago on good to soft ground. The handicapper has had his say by lumping her up 13lb for that victory but she looks the one to be with here.
Alice Hayne’s Snafiya is chasing a hat trick following two wins on soft ground on her last starts at Doncaster and Thirsk since joining from George Boughey and will appreciate any further rain. Hugo Palmer’s Tierney was a 28/1 winner at Haydock on fast ground four weeks ago and has to cope with a 7lb rise and significantly different ground conditions today.
Top weight Woodhay Wonder has a Group 2 Lowther Stakes entry for York and wasn’t totally disgraced in a four runner Group 2 contest over course and distance at the July meeting. She has claims but I’m sticking with last week’s impressive winner Say Hello despite the big rise in the weights.
 
SAY HELLO 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill
 
Goodwood 14:25
A cracking contest up next, The Coral Summer handicap, a class 2 handicap run over 1M 6F for three year olds and upwards. Fourteen have declared and we have a short enough favourite here in the John & Thady Gosden trained Sweet William who stepped forward at Newbury last time when winning a 2M handicap cosily by 3L. He’s been raised 7lb for that win and is dropping back 2F here. He must go well although he has yet to race on soft ground although his dam won listed races on soft and heavy so there must be every chance she’ll handle it well.
Others with chances include Alan King’s top weight HMS President who ran so well at Royal Ascot (3rd won since) but is racing off of a career high mark today.
Frankie Dettori’s mount Adjuvant was beaten a neck by HMS President at Newmarket in May on soft ground over this trip and is 3lb better off at these weights. Not disgraced in two starts since including when fifth in the Northumberland Plate he can run well and is the pick of these each way.
Both the William Haggas trained Post Impressionist and Sir Mark Prescott trained Ominiscient are improvers but both have never raced on ground as soft as today’s whilst the same can be said about the bottom weight He’s A Latchio trained by Gary Moore.
I backed the old boy Euchen Glen in this race last year when he was poorly ridden and flashed home to finish third beaten 1 1/4L looking unlucky and although he’s now 10 years old he will be 6lb lower here and it would certainly not be a shock were he to feature at the finish at a big price.
The bet here though is Adjuvant for the Michael Bell team with a saver on favourite Sweet William who if coping with the ground could blow these away.
 
ADJUVANT 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
SWEET WILLIAM 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365
 
Newmarket 14:40
Eleven fillies and mares line up for this 1M 4F listed Chalice Stakes. It looks a weak listed contest with the highest rated being the Irish challenger Amusement trained by Donnacha O’Brien who is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than her ten rivals. She has won only one of her ten starts and that came in a six runner Leopardstown handicap on heavy ground back in May. She’s run well enough since in pattern company and under Gavin Ryan should be going very close here.
John & Thady Gosden saddle two fillies looking for black type in Spring Fever who was disappointing last time in a Newbury handicap and Sweet Memories a Newbury novice stakes winner a fortnight ago.
The Godolphin runner is Sunset Point trained by Charlie Appleby stepping out of handicap company and she also has claims.
I wanted to take the favourite on but the more I looked at the race the more I came back to her so it’s Amusement to small stakes for me.
 
AMUSEMENT 1 point win @ 13/8 BetVictor
 
Goodwood 15:00
Eight have declared for the Group 2 1M 6F Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes for three year old and upwards fillies and mares.
The warm favourite is the John & Thady Gosden trained Free Wind who on official ratings is 6lb and more superior to her seven rivals. She won the Lancashire Oaks last season on her only run on a soft surface so there shouldn’t be any problems on that score with the only negative being her flat run last time out when fifth (beaten 3L) in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s stepping up a quarter of a mile and on softer ground today and can give Frankie Dettori a Group 1 winner on his final day riding at Glorious Goodwood.
Roger Varian sprung a surprise in the big fillies Group 1 with Al Husn on Thursday here and saddles Peripatetic who has a good track record of two wins from three starts but has never run on a slow surface.
The Charlton’s Time Lock has became a disappointing horse and even with Ryan Moore on top is overlooked whilst Ralph Beckett’s River Of Stars is maybe the biggest threat to the favourite. She ran second in a Group 2 at Longchamp over this trip last time which was a career best and under Rossa Ryan can chase Free Wind home.
 
FREE WIND 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill
 
Goodwood 15:35
Today’s feature race is the class 2 6F Coral Stewards Cup for three year olds and upwards and is one of the trickiest sprint handicaps of the season.
The draw is very much a talking point here and over recent year’s its paid to be with very high or very low although because of all the rain we’ve had this week its not set in stone.
Top of any list has to be the Charlie Hills trained Orazio, a lightly raced four year old who is highly rated by his trainer who has already been on the score sheet this meeting. He may have found the ground a bit on the fast side in the Wokingham when finishing sixth (beaten 2 1/2L) and can turn the tables on the three that finished ahead of him that day - Apollo One, Juan Les Pins and Mums Tipple and looks sure to be thereabouts from stall 6 under Jim Crowley, fresh from winning two Group Ones in the last week on Hukum and Al Husn although he’s been well found in the market. Hills also saddles Tanmawwy who wont mind the conditions and drawn two away from his stable mate in stall 8 is capable of featuring.
Rumstar was my ante post pick alongside Orazio but I feel that ease in the ground has gone against him I’m afraid. Of those drawn high on the near stands side Kevin Ryan’s Bielsa has the assistance of Ryan Moore and wont mind conditions from stall 26 and can go well alongside Julie Camacho’s Significantly (stall 28) who arrives in great form having won at Haydock prior to a good second at Ascot a week ago over 5F. She maybe best at that trip mind.
As long as the ground is soft the selection however is the Kevin Ryan trained Aleezdancer whose form figures when the word soft appears in the going description reads 6135119611. He’s had excuses for his last few starts but on soft ground can run a big race in first time cheek pieces under Neill Callan.
I’ll take him from stall 2 and Bielsa from stall 26 to have one on either side of the track at double figure odds although I must have a win only saver on the favourite Orazio as I don’t want to lose on the race. Here’s hoping Kevin Ryan strikes in the day’s big handicap.
 
ALEEZDANCER 1 point each way @ 20/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 123456
BIELSA 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
ORAZIO 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365
 
All odds were available at time of writing.
 
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The big handicap on the final day of Goodwood is the Stewards’ Cup. Historically the senior steward at Goodwood presented an annual cup to the winner of any race of his choosing. In 1840 the race was established as a 6 furlongs sprint.

This heritage handicap is open to 3-year-olds or older. The off time is 15.35.

There is a big field of 28 runners and with most bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years these are my key conclusions.

Those horses towards the top of the weights have a good record. Horses carrying between 9st 5lbs and 9st 10lbs have produced 5 wins from 45 runs with a profit of 104 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have 4 wins from 191 runs with a loss of 155 points.

The betting is an excellent guide with 7 of the last 9 winners being in the top 5 of the betting, generating a profit of 52 points. Of the 184 runners outside the top 5 only 2 have won.

Beaten favourites have a poor record with 0 wins from 21 runs.

 

This leaves just 1 horse.

MUMS TIPPLE 20/1

This is available at this price with BET365 who are offering 6 places.

Frankie Dettori has won this twice in the last 8 years, hopefully he goes out with a bang in his final year.

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1.5pts e/w-3.35  GW- MR WAGYU 20/1 bog  6places 4th 7.2pts Returned (R4 5p)

0.75pts e/w - 3.35 GW- HYPERFOCUS 40/1 not bog  6places  LOST

1pt e/w - 2.25 GW- TORCELLO 20 bog 4places- 4th 4.60pts returned (R4 10p)

1pt e/w-2.25 GW- EUCHEN GLEN 20/1 bog 4 places- 3rd 4.60pts Returned (R4 10p) 

2pts e/w- 5.20 GW- GREATGRAIDAIN 12/1 bog 4places VOID

Edited by Tedthewolf
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Mums Tipple                                                              3 35 Gwd/                           1/40th of a pt ew        20/1

Tyson Fury                                                                  2 25 Gwd/                           1/40th of a pt ew        55/1

Came From The Dark                                               3 35 Gwd/                            1/40th of a pt ew       40/1

Gis A Sub                                                                    1 50 Gwd/                            1/40th of a pt ew       20/1

Captain Cuddles                                                        4 10 Gwd/                            1/40th of a pt ew       16/1

My Kurkom                                                                 4 50 Gall/                             1/40th of a pt ew       25/1

Banned                                                                        5 25 Gall/                             1/40th of a pt  ew      10/1

Persica                                                                         4 45 Gwd/                            1/40th of a pt  ew      16/1

Ghara                                                                           3 00 Gwd/                            1/40th of a pt ew       40/1

Digby                                                                            2 30 Gall/                             1/40th of a pt ew        18/1

 

 

 

P/L +168.30 pts

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Stewards cup 

Apollo one  9.2 15.5 

Orazio     9.0 11/2 

Myms tipple  8.7 

Badri   8.7 

Kings Lynn  8.6 

Let's finish the week off with a bang ....10pt wins top 2 

 

Adding 10pt on mum's tipple at 27.0 ....see if lightning strikes twice !!

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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

The big handicap on the final day of Goodwood is the Stewards’ Cup. Historically the senior steward at Goodwood presented an annual cup to the winner of any race of his choosing. In 1840 the race was established as a 6 furlongs sprint.

This heritage handicap is open to 3-year-olds or older. The off time is 15.35.

There is a big field of 28 runners and with most bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years these are my key conclusions.

Those horses towards the top of the weights have a good record. Horses carrying between 9st 5lbs and 9st 10lbs have produced 5 wins from 45 runs with a profit of 104 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have 4 wins from 191 runs with a loss of 155 points.

The betting is an excellent guide with 7 of the last 9 winners being in the top 5 of the betting, generating a profit of 52 points. Of the 184 runners outside the top 5 only 2 have won.

Beaten favourites have a poor record with 0 wins from 21 runs.

 

This leaves just 1 horse.

MUMS TIPPLE 20/1

This is available at this price with BET365 who are offering 6 places.

Frankie Dettori has won this twice in the last 8 years, hopefully he goes out with a bang in his final year.

Mums Tipple is outside the top 5 in the betting though.

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14 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Ground drying out a fair bit at Goodwood?

Torrential rain...High winds arriving overnight ...storm adonis or whatever ... I think it'll be a washout ...maybe even called off ....60 mile hour winds etc ....jeez ...just saw on news 

If right will go to heavy again ...I'm not feeling confident for sure 😕 

Edited by richard-westwood
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Singles.   

Couple of J Quinn , stable going well. 

Goodwood. 

3.35. Mr Wagyu       12/1

stk 5.00        rtn 65.00.

Doncaster.

3.55. Signora Camacho          8/1

stk. 5.00       rtn. 45.00 

Good luck all. 

 

Edited by kensland
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14.25 goodwood     Post Impressionist   10-1 with Hills paying 4 places  . Forgotten horse of the race . Well backed for the  Northumberland Plate but disappointed (wouldn`t blame any horse for not taking to that track )  . It`s last run of last year was a real eye catcher , ran away with a handicap with a couple of these well behind .

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Great write up by The Brigadier, 'we' read it over the coffee / fruit juice / croissants ( thats a posh pastry guys 😂 ) ........Home now, soooo i think small stakes today, after great day at the course yday. Some nice price tips on thread too, i think will also follow 👍........Good luck to all 🤞

 

Good 1.50       Live in the moment  12/1 EW     4th     &       Count Otto  20/1  EW  NR       &            Temple Bruer     35/1  EW            betfair  4 places 

Newm 2.05     Snafiya  4/1         &             Flaccianello    8/1  EW     WON 

Good 2.25       Torcello  12/1  EW    4th  18/1      &     Mr Curiosity   7/1 EW           &          HMS President    9/1 EW     NR                      4 places

Newm 2.40      Amusement     7/2            &               Sunset Point       11/4

Don  2.45         Thunder Star      9/2   WON        &          Slingsbytoo  13/2  EW     2nd      2 places

Good 3.00       River of Stars   7/2             &          Peripatetic     14/1 EW               

Good 3.35       Apollo One  14/1 EW    2nd        &                Albasheer  20/1  EW            &           Vintage Clarets    40/1  EW                6 places

   

    2 Wins 🏆 🏆....... ( 1 mine & 1 from thread 👍 )  and 4 EW  places, sooo came out ahead ( just as small stakes today  )         

Edited by Brahmin
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Have had a 3.50 L15 and Acca on the Gdwd com

5.20n Gd Sweet Reward 0.50 ew at 22/1 with Betfred 5p

= 4.50 stakes

I have also backed @richard-westwood's top 2 selections (not Mums Tipple, watch it win now) not posting here though as I am taking these bets out of my  P/L from now on lest I am accused of only making money with other peoples selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Next race at goodwood

Lilly Langtry 3:00

it would be nice to see my namesake 

Sumo Sam

each way. Pick up a bit of black type,

But this is all about 

FREE WIND

Win

the only impediment to this horse’s  chances are the glorious uncertainties of racing. A course winner of a maiden bolted up by nine lengths. The other issue is Frankie.  racing is not all about this fellow and if he takes the trainers instructions to heart,  this really ought to be a procession, given that this horse is back in own sex company here after running flat in a better  open race last time. Rated well clear and wins if handling the cut.

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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