Racing Chat - Thursday 3rd August

[The Brigadier]

Day Three of Glorious Goodwood although with the weather forecast it hardly looks Glorious! Today’s feature race is the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes over 10F for fillies and mares and is run at 15:35.

ITV are again showing the first four races from the meeting and here are my thoughts and selections to help us beat the bookies again today.

 

Goodwood 13:50

A cracking eighteen runner class 2 three year old’s only handicap kicks us off today which will be run over 10F.

Current favourite is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Perfuse who has already shown his liking for very soft ground when winning his maiden at Nottingham on officially heavy ground. He was better than his finishing position of fifth when beaten 6L by Desert Hero in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot and will appreciate dropping back to 10F here. With Ryan Moore on board, a favourable draw in stall seven and the ground in his favour he’s the main bet.

Its double figure prices all the others with soft ground loving Royal Rhyme likely to run a big race. Kevin Ryan’s Lope De Vega colt is two from two on soft ground including when running out a 5L winner at Newmarket in May. Back on soft ground he can be competitive from stall 2 and appeals each way with additional places.

The Richard Fahey trained Have Secret is another with winning soft ground form and at a nice price could be involved in the finish having finished fourth in two of the summers better 3-year-old middle distance handicaps.

Others worth a mention are the handicap debutant of William Haggas’s Garden Route but he’s untested on a soft surface whilst the same can be said about Andrew Balding’s Alsakib who’s won his last two races.

Andrew Balding also saddles Goldsborough who’s already won here and on heavy ground so on this handicap debutant is an interesting runner at a very big price especially if the ground rides very soft.

Perfuse is a strong fancy and is the main play here although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Have Secret from stall one.

 

PERFUSE 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

HAVE SECRET 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Goodwood 14:25

With the defection of a couple here we have ten two year olds going to post here for this 6F Group 2 Richmond Stakes where there is very little previous soft ground form.

Simon & Ed Crisford's runner Vandeek made a remarkable winning debut at Nottingham a fortnight ago when falling out of the stalls, losing some 10 lengths but ran on like a smart horse to win going away by 3/4L at the end. That was on good to soft ground so he may well be less inconvenienced by the ground conditions than most. He looks the one to beat with the Irish runner Unquestionable now a non runner.

The other runner at the head of the market is Clive Cox’s Jasour who ran out a 2L winner of the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago at the July Meeting but has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here and has only run on fast ground (he was pulled out on his debut run at Newmarket in May due to soft ground) so may well struggle on the prevailing ground.

Sketch looked good on his debut twelve days when winning by 5L at Newbury and is another who could be prominent if handing the ground.

It’s Vandeek for me to prove his debut win was no flash in the pan.

VANDEEK 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 15:00

Just the six have declared for this St Leger trial, the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes, a Group 3 contest run over 12F for three year olds only.

Four of the sextet are proven on soft ground with the duo who which aren’t being Burdett Road who also has plenty on and Canberra Legend and that pair are first two to be dismissed.

Chesspiece looked good up at Hamilton a fortnight ago winning the Glasgow Stakes when making all and could well attempt similar tactics here today for father and son duo Simon & Ed Crisford.

William Haggas’s Desert Hero is taking a step up in class having won a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot and has won on soft and heavy ground so will handle conditions better than most whilst Ralph Beckett’s Artistic Star was a two year old maiden winner on soft ground and having finished 7th in the Derby ran third to King Of Steel at Royal Ascot.

The one i like though is the Aiden O’Brien runner Espionage who is the highest rated of the sextet and has the services of Ryan Moore. A runner up (beaten a head) on heavy ground in a Group 1 as a juvenile he made a winning re-appearance in listed company at Roscommon a month ago and can take this en route to a tilt at the St Leger which he is currently a top priced 8/1 chance.

I’ll be backing him for today’s race and is also worth chancing ante-post for the St Leger run at Doncaster in September.

 

ESPIONAGE 2 points win @ 15/8 bet365

ESPIONAGE (St Leger) 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 123

 

Goodwood 15:35

Just the six line up here for the day’s feature race, the 10f Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes for three year olds and upwards fillies and mares.

It’s a fascinating match up with the top French three year old against the best of her elders of her own sex.

Blue Rose Cen is a very smart filly trained by Christopher Head who trains in France. She has won the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks this season in good style, winning the latter by 4L under Aurelian Lemaire who is in the saddle today. She has plenty of form on soft and even heavy ground so conditions will hold no fears for the French challenger.

She is however rated 2lb inferior to last year’s winner, the John & Thady Gosden trained Nashwa who found her form in no uncertain manner when bolting up in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting last month coming home 5L to the good from Remarquee. She too has form on very soft ground so conditions shouldn’t hinder her too much. It’s a fascinating match up and I fully expect them to fight out the finish. At the respective prices I’ll have to go with Hollie Doyle and Nashwa but it will be no shock if the French filly wins.

Roger Varian’s Al Husn actually beat Nashwa at Newcastle on the all-weather track back in June but she’s not certain to be as suited by wet turf and I expect Nashwa to turn the tables here today.

Aiden O’Brien’s Never Ending Story is held by Nashwa on Newmarket form and this is a race to watch and savour with my selection being Nashwa.

 

NASHWA 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365

 

All odds were available at time of writing

 

[Zilzalian]

My stakes are now going to be at 25% for the rest of Goodwood this ground is nigh on impossible to work with....

[calva decoy]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

My stakes are now going to be at 25% for the rest of Goodwood this ground is nigh on impossible to work with....

Already loads of non runners for tomorrow & even the low draw in sprints is out of the window , think I'll stick with Galway .

[black rabbit]

Harry The Norseman   { N/R }                                        

Prairie Dancer                                                     5 05 Gal/                       1/40th of a pt ew    33/1

Tudor City                                                            5 05 Gal/                       1/40th of a pt ew    18/1

Never Ending Story                                            3 35 Gwd/                     1/40th of a pt win   40/1

Miramis                                                                3 55 Gall//                     1/40th of a pt ew    22/1                   WON

Macanudo                                                            4 10 Gwd/                     1/40th of a pt win   11/1

Gaasyah                                                                5 20 gwd/                      1/40th of a pt ew    22/1

 

 

 

 

P/L     + 166.30pt

Edited August 3, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[MCLARKE]

38 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

My stakes are now going to be at 25% for the rest of Goodwood this ground is nigh on impossible to work with....

But if you find a horse that performs on the going then could be chance for some good priced winners

[azzybear]

miss tempo 8.20 ew 

[Brahmin]

Good morning from Mr & Mrs Brahmin to all, and as it Ladies Day at Goodwood, then its 'Female intuition' selections today, as tomorrow we are going racing for the 'Blue & White' best dressed day!...........Great read again The Brigadiers write up.........

 

Goodwood double ...Vandeek  / Espionage @  6.56 win double.......... Perfuse /Promoter (1:50) & Novus & Metal Merchant (4:45) Top 6 Finishes @ 6/1

R Moore 2 winners @ 11/4    /     O Murphy & R Moore 1 win @ 2/1         

Good 1.50  Perfuse  11/4    &      Baltic Voyage  16/1 EW    /    Garden Route   16/1 EW    /     Entrancement    33/1 EW         5 places

Good 2.25  Vandeek   11/8    WON       &           Hala Emaraaty    11/1 EW                        

Good  3.00  Espionage  7/4 

Good  3.35  Blue Rose Cen    4/5            &         Nashwa        11/4        &             R/fc  Blue rose Cen / Nashwa

 

Nott  2.40   Enderman  14/1  EW     WON   ( late R4 15p )         &          Impeller  13/2  EW                

Nott  3.50   Cariad   85/40        &            Equion    9/1  EW    WON  10/1

Nott 5.00   Knights Spear  33/1 EW          &          Guilty Party    40/1 EW        4 places     ( NR'S  3 places )           

 

3 Wins 🏆 🏆🏆 ......1 by Mrs on Ladies day and 2 by Mr at nott 😎...... soooo our drinks / lunch paid for at Goodwood tomorrow 👍

Edited August 3, 2023 by Brahmin

[richard-westwood]

410 good 

Grays inn 9.0 5/2  66 37 67 

Mission to moon  8.3 22 17 33 

Phone tag   8.2 30 31 22 

Rare treck into nursery's    .....Grays inn likes soft and is due to go up 17lb soon .....can't actually believe he's 5/2 ....nothings a cert but  on paper class rating suggests he is way above these potentially 

Grays inn 10pt win 5/2 

Edit ...got 11/4 bet365 enhanced 

Edited August 2, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

I’m trying a new tactic tomorrow with my jumps selections . I think I need to improve my ratings a touch and I’ll see how this works . Completely different to how I normally do it. 
 
Stratford 5.25 

Gentleman Valley 134  5/2 

Mr Years 133  4/1

Shantou Express 130 6/1

Hoganville 130 11/2

Gentleman comes out on top. Ticks the boxes for distance , going and class too. He’s actually upped in distance an extra 3 furlongs but I suspect he’ll stay that . 
 

5 points win 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Villa Chris

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

But if you find a horse that performs on the going then could be chance for some good priced winners

You’ve got 2 threads running for tomorrow. (I won’t name names!) 

[MCLARKE]

Now sorted

[Villa Chris]

Galway Hurdle 

Icare Allen 158 22/1 

Cash Back 157 25/1

Da Capo Glory 156 22/1

Filey Bay 152 5/1 

Tudor City 151 14/1

5 points win Icare Allen 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

You’ve got 2 threads running for tomorrow. (I won’t name names!) 

I will name me as the guilty perp had a bit of a brain malfunction. I assume @MCLARKE has rectified my error.

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

I will name me as the guilty perp had a bit of a brain malfunction. I assume @MCLARKE has rectified my error.

Yep, should all be sorted now

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

But if you find a horse that performs on the going then could be chance for some good priced winners

Yep you are correct but risk aversion has got to kick in, its ok finding horses that act on the ground but then that horse has got to perform accordingly heavy ground has as more variations than all the other going descriptions put together in my experience some heavy is good to soft according to my stats some is soft and some bottomless and everything in between. probably make a twat of myself tomorrow by picking 3 or four winners (hopefully) then kick myself for cutting my stakes but my experience tells me its the right thing to do. I can see this meeting hitting abandonment stage at this rate.

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Yep you are correct but risk aversion has got to kick in, its ok finding horses that act on the ground but then that horse has got to perform accordingly heavy ground has as more variations than all the other going descriptions put together in my experience some heavy is good to soft according to my stats some is soft and some bottomless and everything in between. probably make a twat of myself tomorrow by picking 3 or four winners (hopefully) then kick myself for cutting my stakes but my experience tells me its the right thing to do. I can see this meeting hitting abandonment stage at this rate.

I agree, you have to assume that going descriptions are accuate.

In the 2nd race today Magical Sunset's last win was on heavy going. There were only 2 other horses that had won on heavy and I would have probably discounted them because they were the top 2 in the weights (heavy weights have a poor record when the going becomes heavy).

[Moneymaker 777]

13:50 Goodwood - Coverdale (12/1)

16:18 Stratford - Aliomaana (4/1)

16:45 Goodwood - Roarin Success (8/1)

3 x 2 Units E/W Doubles

3 Units E/W Treble

[kensland]

Goodwood.

5.55. Jim Jungle       13/2      1st 

stk 5.00 + free bet    ,rtn 70.00

Nottingham.

Double

3.15. Knight Affair        13/8     unpl

3.50. Cosmos Raj           4/1    nr

singles & double 

stk 6.00   rtn 41.00

Good luck all. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by kensland

[The Brigadier]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

But if you find a horse that performs on the going then could be chance for some good priced winners

I always find that when the ground changes that's a good time to get your punting boots on to find and back the mudlarks 

[Tedthewolf]

Good to see Icare Allen highly rated for the Galway hurdle  by Chris as think it should outrun its odds looks a fair e/w shout from the Mullins yard who have 4 of the 16 runners!  i also think dual winner of this Tudor City is overpriced at 16/1 although 11 year old now.

5.05 Galway1pt e/w !CARE ALLEN 25/1 bog 5places

5,05 Galway1pt e/w TUDOR CITY 16/1 bog 5places

4pts invested

 

 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[black rabbit]

1 minute ago, Tedthewolf said:

Good to see Icare Allen highly rated for the Galway hurdle  by Chris as think it should outrun its odds looks a fair e/w shout from the Mullins yard who have 4 of the 16 runners!  i also think dual winner of this Tudor City is overpriced at 16/1 although 11 now.

5.05 Galway1pt e/w !CARE ALLEN 25/1 bog 5places

5,05 Galway1pt e/w TUDOR CITY 16/1 bog 5places

 

 

i'd love to see Tudor City win it ted  he's delivered some great wins for me over the years

[calva decoy]

2.33 Stratford - HIDDEN DEPTHS 6/1 bet365 ( 2 places ) up in trip today after staying on at Mkt Rasen over 1.5f shorter , ground a bit of a worry . 👎 not picked a place horse in first 5 races at Stratford .

 

5.05 Galway - GLAN 10/1 bet365 ( 5 places 2.50 eway free bet ) following on from yesterday's winner in the Plate ASH TREE MEADOW this one ran in this race last year finishing 4th off a mark of 130 , is running off 135 today but good claimer Gilligan takes 7Lb off so in effect 2Lb lower than last year & arrives here off a low weight & on the back of a win .👎 was hammered in in the betting but no show , free bet so nowt lost .

Edited August 3, 2023 by calva decoy

[calva decoy]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I will name me as the guilty perp had a bit of a brain malfunction. I assume @MCLARKE has rectified my error.

Me too , I was also a sheep 🐑 ( baaaaa ) just lazy scrolling 😆

Edited August 3, 2023 by calva decoy

[richard-westwood]

GalwY hurdle 

Filey Bay   8.9 12.0 

Fils douderies  8.7 50.0 

Bialystok    8.3 

Some cracking prices on betfair ...May as well have a go ...5pt wins top 2 

[richard-westwood]

Does anyone have an up to date national hunt course classification table .....like which courses are class a      class b   etc  I can't seem to find my copy ... t.i.a 😀

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Does anyone have an up to date national hunt course classification table .....like which courses are class a      class b   etc  I can't seem to find my copy ... t.i.a 😀

This may help although it doesn’t give exactly what you’re after but you could build severing around this I suppose. 

[kensland]

Galway.

Single 

3.55. Dandy Alys       10/3     unpl

stk 5.00    27.00.

Good luck all. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by kensland

[richard-westwood]

18 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

This may help although it doesn’t give exactly what you’re after but you could build severing around this I suppose. 

I've found something .....do people agree on this being accurate ??

Class a  ....aintree ascot chelt hayd kemp newb sand 

B ......chep donc ling newc weth winc

C....ayr hunt newtabb strat warw worc

D Carl catt Exeter leic markras Towc utt 

E bang cart fake folk font here hex Kelso ludl muss Perth plump sedge South taunt 

Doesn't seem too bad 🤔 have I missed anything lol 😆 

Edited August 3, 2023 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Newcastle 8.45

CARIBBEAN SUNSET

[Libby48]

All E/W

Galway

5:05  -  Tudor City 12/1

5:40 - out on Friday 11/1

Newcastle

6:05 Late Arrival 9/1

6:40  Platinum girl 11/1

8:15 Tathmeen 8/1

8:45 One for the ladies 10/1

 

 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Libby48