richard-westwood Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 For instance on the class rating ...this is the first race that has come off its the Lennox stakes Tuesday Al suhail 9.0 100 116 112 Kinross 8.9 116 112 98 Isaacs shelby 8.5 77 116 112 Audience 8.2 28 54 74 See on ratings alone it looks more open but audience is taking on much better opposition here so although he looks an improver I'd scrub him ........so I've narrowed it to top 3 so far ....it looks close between top 3 on class but Al suhail and Kinross look the strongest bets to me at the moment ..... A look at betting now shows all 3 are top 3 in betting ...with Kinross 13/8 fav ......I don't think he warrants that price given the ratings and class .....overall I think Al suhail 15/2 ew is the value bet 🤔 maybe ....but you can see any of the 3 is capable at this class I'll try 5pt ew all suhail ....only will hill go 15/2 .....paddy are 7/2!! So I think he will shorten black rabbit, Brahmin, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 30, 2023 Author Share Posted July 30, 2023 140 good Raasel 8.7 5/1 112 74 96 Vintage clarets 8.5 7/1 43 60 98 Dream composer 8.1 89 69 93 Acklam express 7.9 67 65 57 Acklam fails on class .....top 3 can be competitive in this class but top 2 are stronger ....raasel has 2 runs well in this class and vintage looks to be improving fast 5pt wins top 2 Brahmin, The Equaliser, The Brigadier and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 Day one of Glorious Goodwood although looking at the weather forecast for the week it’s hardly going to be that! The ground for the beginning of the Festival in Sussex is currently good to soft following rain over the weekend and with more rain forecast we’ll be looking for the mudlarks in the four scheduled ITV races. Goodwood 14.50 Sixteen handicappers declared for the valuable Chesterfield Cup Handicap run over 10F for four year olds and older. Sir Mark Prescott’s Eagles Way makes a quick re-appearance having started his season off with second at Yarmouth five days ago and is a potential improver having racked up a four timer last season. It was good to soft at Yarmouth last week but he’s untested on anything worse than that and there is always the bounce theory. The key piece of form here is the John Smith’s Cup where Pride Of America did well to get the call on the line from Astro KIng and as the Amy Murphy trained six year old loves the mud should be a player here. Back in third that day was the Ed Dunlop trained Haunted Dream (beaten 1 1/2L) and is now 2lb better off. That was the slowest ground he has raced on (good to soft) and is unproven on anything softer. The horse I like though finished seventh that day (beaten 5 3/4L) which doesn’t really tell the whole story as William Haggas’s five year old exited from stall 20 and was plum last after a furlong having been dropped in. He ran on well to finish 7th and much more can be expected today as that was also his first run for 227 days. He was smart in France when trained by Mlle Stephanie Nigge and actually ran third in the 2021 French Derby. He looks primed to win now with soft ground very much in his favour and he’s a confident each way bet. Local handler David Menuisier saddles his Caius Chorister with William Buick on board but he flopped last time so has a small question mark over him. The Middleham stable of the Johnston’s has a great record in the race having won it four times out of the last 9 years and are represented by Outbreak but he has yet to encounter soft ground so is readily overlooked. One horse who is particularly well handicapped is William Knight’s Moktasaab, who runs in the name of Harry Redknapp. He ran third in this contest a year ago off of a 5lb higher handicap mark and is back on a winning mark now. He does however have to prove his effectiveness on a slow surface. The bet is Millesbosc who has his conditions here and will have Tom Marquand in the saddle exiting from stall ten. MILLESBOSC 2 points each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 Goodwood 15:25 The 7F Group 2 Nicholson Gin Vintage Stakes has attracted nine runners and is for two year olds only. There’s very little soft ground form available which makes things quite difficult here. Richard Hannon who had an impressive winning two year old colt at Ascot on Saturday in the shape of Rosallion saddles the Phoenix Of Spain colt Haatem. Fifth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot he chased home the superstar City Of Troy in Newmarket’s Superlative Stakes at the July meeting on good to soft ground with stable mate Son 3 1/2L back in fifth and the Andrew Balding trained Spanish Phoenix a further 1 3/4L away in sixth. Haatem can confirm that form with that pair and looks the one they all have to beat here. Chesham third Golden Mind trained by Richard Fahey and ridden by Frankie Dettori can also play a part in the finish but has yet to race on soft ground although was third on his debut on good to soft. Charlie Hills has booked William Buick for his Newbury winner in June Iberian but with only one of the seven that followed him home that day winning since and being unproven on soft ground looks opposable here especially as he was pulled out on the morning of the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting due to soft ground. Aiden O’Brien sends over Mountain Bear, a Curragh winner on good ground in June but was soundly beaten at Royal Ascot and was pulled out on account of sort ground at Leopardstown last week so is unlikely to like soft ground. With Sean Levey in the saddle this can go the way of the Hannon juvenile Haatem who can boost the City Of Troy Newmarket form by taking this Group 2 contest. HAATEM 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365 Goodwood 4.00 A field of nine assemble for the Group 2 World Pool Lennox Stakes run over 7F which features the day’s best bet. Ralph Beckett’s Kinross will be very hard to beat as long as he doesn’t find trouble. Berthed in stall one, Frankie Dettori’s mount won this in 2021 and ran second to Sandrine last year with a never say die run on the rail from Dettori just failing to get up. He’s run over the furlong shorter trip of 6F this season and was not disgraced when running third to Shaquille in the Group 1 July Cup last time. Back up to his optimum trip on ground he loves with his trainer currently firing at a 30% win rate he will be a tough nut to crack. Al Suhail carries a 3lb penalty for his win at Meydan in March and was comprehensively beaten twice last year by Kinross whilst Newmarket winner Audience, trained by the Gosden’s, has yet to encounter soft conditions. Jumby was behind Audience last time along with Pogo who would appreciate a sounder surface. There are four three year olds in the contest this year with the best of them, and Kinross’s main danger, being the Brian Meehan trained Isaac Shelby who appears to adore soft ground. He was a winner at Newbury first time out this season in the Greenham Stakes over this trip at Newbury on soft and was possibly unlucky not to win the French 2000 Guineas next time out when going down by a short neck. His subsequent fourth of 9 in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot can be forgiven as that was run on good ground and wasn’t a bad effort anyway as he didn’t get a clear run that day. He looks the danger to the favourite Kinross and is worth a small stakes saver. KINROSS 3 points win @ 13/8 Betfred ISAAC SHELBY 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hill Goodwood 16:35 A fair sized field of eleven line up for the Group 1 2M Goodwood Cup. Five of the 11 ran in the Ascot Gold Cup last month over a half a mile longer trip with the lightly raced Gosden trained four year old Courage Mon Ami doing us a favour with a majestic ride by Frankie Dettori, weaving through the field to beat Coltrane by a cosy 3/4L. That was only his fourth ever start and having previously won here looks the one to beat although there is a definite question mark over his ability to handle soft ground. Yet to race on a slow surface (his sire Frankel acted on any whilst his dam and relations kept away from soft ground) he may be vulnerable to a couple here dropping back to two miles. Coltrane should go well although he too is unproven on soft ground and the horse I’m interested in is one of the two Aiden O’Brien runners in the four year old filly Emily Dickinson. She may not have stayed in the Ascot Gold Cup when 4 3/4L behind Courage Mon Ami in finishing fourth and has a record on soft ground of 1141. She has run out a comfortable 3L winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup since over 14F and back to two miles looks posed to run a big race with Ryan Moore preferring her over Broome (William Buick). Roger Varin’s Eldar Eldarov won last year’s St Leger and is another with claims with the drop back to two miles possibly in his favour. The best outsider appears to be Brian Ellison’s Tashkhan who is a real mud lover and is very capable if the mud is flying, he’s worth a small stakes each way saver. A good renewal of this valuable staying race in which six of the last 7 favourites have won (three of those coming from the great Stradivarius) and as much as I would love to see Courage Mon Ami win here as he did us a big turn at Ascot we don’t bet with our heart so the bet is Emily Dickinson with a small saver on Tashkan. EMILY DICKINSON 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 13/2 1/5th 123 TASHKAN 1/4 point each way @ 25/1 Coral 1/5 123 All odds were available at time of writing black rabbit, MCLARKE, Zico10 and 6 others 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneymaker 777 Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 (edited) Newton Abbot 15:55 - Enemenemynemo (7/2) Newton Abbot 16:30 - Dicey Rielly (4/1) Ayr 15:05 - See My Baby Jive (2/1) 3 x 2 Units E/W Doubles 3 Units E/W Treble Edited August 1, 2023 by Moneymaker 777 Yesterday's Picks azzybear, black rabbit and The Brigadier 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 12 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 140 good Raasel 8.7 5/1 112 74 96 Vintage clarets 8.5 7/1 43 60 98 Dream composer 8.1 89 69 93 Acklam express 7.9 67 65 57 Acklam fails on class .....top 3 can be competitive in this class but top 2 are stronger ....raasel has 2 runs well in this class and vintage looks to be improving fast 5pt wins top 2 Really surprised Lord Riddiford isn't high in your Ratings Rich low weight loves it here soft ground no problem winner of this the last 2 years looks a cracking e/w bet to me👍 black rabbit, The Brigadier, Zico10 and 4 others 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: Really surprised Lord Riddiford isn't high in your Ratings Rich low weight loves it here soft ground no problem winner of this the last 2 years looks a cracking e/w bet to me👍 Well tbh I rated on good sft as the going stick was 6.6 but if it rains considerably more it'll ho soft ...I'm hoping it dries a little ... goodwood is usually good ground normally I think with Lord riddiford ...he's 8 which is negative....and his recent runs are nothing to write home ......he could bounce back of course ....but that's why he will rate low He's been backed I see so good luck 👍 Edited July 31, 2023 by richard-westwood The Brigadier, Brahmin, Tedthewolf and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 Looking at the forecast it looks likely that the ground will be soft and probably heavy most of the week getting worse by the day. The Equaliser, Brahmin, black rabbit and 3 others 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 (edited) 3pts e/w 1.40 GW- LORD RIDDIFORD 13/2 bog corals = 6pts invested Wins 8/1 27pts returned Edited August 1, 2023 by Tedthewolf BBBC, richard-westwood, azzybear and 6 others 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: For instance on the class rating ...this is the first race that has come off its the Lennox stakes Tuesday Al suhail 9.0 100 116 112 Kinross 8.9 116 112 98 Isaacs shelby 8.5 77 116 112 Audience 8.2 28 54 74 See on ratings alone it looks more open but audience is taking on much better opposition here so although he looks an improver I'd scrub him ........so I've narrowed it to top 3 so far ....it looks close between top 3 on class but Al suhail and Kinross look the strongest bets to me at the moment ..... A look at betting now shows all 3 are top 3 in betting ...with Kinross 13/8 fav ......I don't think he warrants that price given the ratings and class .....overall I think Al suhail 15/2 ew is the value bet 🤔 maybe ....but you can see any of the 3 is capable at this class I'll try 5pt ew all suhail ....only will hill go 15/2 .....paddy are 7/2!! So I think he will shorten Non runner...guess the grounds gone too soft ....prices have shortened so I'll just watch the race now 😭 The Equaliser and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pa4410 Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 Goodwood 1.40 - Dream Composer 9/1 2.50 - Caius Chorister 12/1 5.05 - Novus 9/1 5.35 - Candle of Hope 8/1 Good luck ! The Equaliser, The Brigadier, azzybear and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneymaker 777 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 14:50 Goodwood - Lord Protector (9/1) 17:20 Yarmouth - Twilight Jazz (5/2) 9 Units E/W Double The Brigadier, black rabbit, azzybear and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) 20 hours ago, Tedthewolf said: Really surprised Lord Riddiford isn't high in your Ratings Rich low weight loves it here soft ground no problem winner of this the last 2 years looks a cracking e/w bet to me👍 I’ve got him high up in the ratings . I’m also experimenting with a RPR and weight carried points system and he’s joint top with Raasel on that but take that with a pinch of salt as it’s still in progress . Not having any bets today just testing. 1.40 Raasel/ Lord Riddiford 2.50 1 Lord Protector 2 Eagles Way Edited August 1, 2023 by Villa Chris The Equaliser, The Brigadier, Tedthewolf and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Worcester. 5.30. Heros De Moutiers 5/1 3rd 6.30. Copper Fox 13/2 singles & double stk 6.00 rtn 117.00 Good luck all. Edited August 1, 2023 by kensland azzybear, black rabbit and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Marbaan 4 00 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt win 22/1 Ancient Rome 2 50 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 38/1 - WON Royal Dress 5 05 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 - Placed Salt Lake City 6 40 Galy/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 A La Noche 2 15 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 15/1 Cloud King 2 15 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 70/1 Minnetonka 5 35 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 22/1 Edited August 2, 2023 by black rabbit selections Tedthewolf, Zico10, Smartins1234 and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) One go at goodwood today and after they have all run I’ll know how the course is running. Be aware that Charlie and Mark Johnston are planning something big for this festival and their runners all week demand the utmost scrutiny. Goodwood 1:40 The top weight is a non runner and that is great news for Raasal the new top weight. On the traverse it is also good news (potentially) for lord Riddiford, lihou and whenthedealingsdone. Rasaal win Whenthedealinsdone each way All four horses in a combination tricast Edited August 1, 2023 by Sporting Sam azzybear, The Equaliser and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brahmin Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Here we go with a week of Glorious Goodwood, a lovely course / day out to, as well as 'our' fav Ascot.........So good luck to all for the week and im sure be some big price winners / placings due to the 'going'..........Am going to see how things go today with my picks and a few from the thread, before the last 2 Handicaps...... 1.40 Vintage Clarets 4/1 & Raasel 4/1 & Lihou 20/1 EW 4 places 2.15 Alaskan Gold 8/1 EW 3rd 9/1 & Union Island 6/1 EW 2.50 Eagles way 7/2 & Soto Sizzler 14/1 EW & Outbreak 16/1 EW 4 places 3.25 Haatem 3/1 WON & Witness Stand 11/1 EW 4.00 Isaac Shelby 9/4 & Audience 15/2 EW 4.35 Courage Mon Ami 2/1 & Emily Dickenson 6/1 EW 2nd 5.05 Rajindri 14/1 EW & Lady Mojito 14/1 EW & Espresso 16/1 EW 5 places 5.35 Kitai 9/4 & Executive Decision 7/1 EW WON 9/1 & Candle of Hope 12/1 EW 4 places 2 Wins 🏆 🏆 and 2 EW places.....looked like a loss today with total outlay of 100pts......until final race with 9/1 Win, so profit on account after all 👍 💷 ... Gets better as now have £5 bonus credited for tomorrow, did £5 worth of EW multis that forgot about 😂 👍 ( got close with Rajindri / Executive decision) Edited August 1, 2023 by Brahmin azzybear, The Equaliser, black rabbit and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Goodwood. 1.40. Vintage Clarets 13/2 unpl 2.15. Union Island 13/2 unpl stk. 6.00 rtn 142.00. Good luck all Edited August 1, 2023 by kensland Brahmin, The Equaliser and azzybear 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Goodwood. Single 5.35. Executive Decision 13/2 9/1 1st stk 5.00 rtn 32.00. Good luck all. Edited August 1, 2023 by kensland Brahmin, The Equaliser, azzybear and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Have done a L25 and acca on the fun L15 = 3.50 points 1.40 Gdwd Raasel 7 points win at 5.2 = 23.81p, Vintage Clarets 4 pts at 8.6 = 21.85 and a cover bet on Dream Composer of 1.10 at 12.0 = 1.08 p if it wins = 15.60 staked so far. Tied up a bit today, but hopefully back later 3.35 Yar Spit Spot 2 pts win at 8.8 = poss p 15.29 17.60 staked so far Edited August 1, 2023 by The Equaliser black rabbit, richard-westwood and azzybear 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 On 7/31/2023 at 11:14 AM, richard-westwood said: Well tbh I rated on good sft as the going stick was 6.6 but if it rains considerably more it'll ho soft ...I'm hoping it dries a little ... goodwood is usually good ground normally I think with Lord riddiford ...he's 8 which is negative....and his recent runs are nothing to write home ......he could bounce back of course ....but that's why he will rate low He's been backed I see so good luck 👍 Big drifter now as big as 9's! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Regarding Lord Riddifords previous form you can ignore that because every time he’s won at Goodwood he’s had poor form . He loves the course , connections target this race so anything previous or after just put a line through because this is his target. Also helped he was on a lower mark than his previous festival win. Well done winners. Existent was my top rated for this race which finished 2nd. Lord Riddiford and the favourite were joint top rated in the RPR/Weight experiment I’m doing Edited August 1, 2023 by Villa Chris The Equaliser, yossa6133 and Tedthewolf 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: Big drifter now as big as 9's! well done ted 👏 Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: Big drifter now as big as 9's! yeah ha had a bit of soppy seconds at 9's LeMale, black rabbit, Villa Chris and 3 others 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: yeah ha had a bit of soppy seconds at 9's Nice one Ted, I had to follow you in when it drifted to a crazy price 🤑 The Equaliser and Tedthewolf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Serena brotherton may be seen to good effect in this race at Beverley 2pm Contrast each way comes here in winning form and runs out of last year’s winning stall. Edited August 1, 2023 by Sporting Sam azzybear and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 4 hours ago, black rabbit said: Marbaan 4 00 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt win 22/1 Ancient Rome 2 50 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 38/1 Royal Dress 5 05 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 Salt Lake City 6 40 Galy/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 A La Noche 2 15 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 15/1 Cloud King 2 15 Gwd/ 1/40th of a pt ew 70/1 the Peerless spencer delivers Nigwilliam, yossa6133, Tedthewolf and 3 others 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Goodwood 4pm kinross win marbaan each way kinross has already won this race two years ago and was second by a narrow margin last year. Hss reached group 1 level too and if frankie wishes a good send off he has the horse here. He can be a bit rash on his rides but if he trust this horse he has as good a chance as any. Marbaan has won on this card under a shrewd ride before and is very well treated. Edited August 1, 2023 by Sporting Sam black rabbit and azzybear 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 indestructible 4.00 ew black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 bella koppela 4.20 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 They dont learn do they? not the first time quickthorn has done that LeMale, Nigwilliam and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.