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Racing chat-tuesday 1st Aug


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For instance on the class rating ...this is the first race that has come off its the Lennox stakes Tuesday 

Al suhail    9.0  100 116 112 

Kinross   8.9 116 112 98 

Isaacs shelby    8.5   77 116 112 

Audience   8.2 28 54 74 

See on ratings alone it looks more open but audience is taking on much better opposition here so although he looks an improver I'd scrub him ........so I've narrowed it to top 3 so far ....it looks close between top 3 on class but Al suhail and Kinross look the strongest bets to me at the moment .....

A look at betting now shows all 3 are top 3 in betting ...with Kinross 13/8 fav ......I don't think he warrants that price given the ratings and class .....overall I think Al suhail 15/2  ew is the value bet 🤔 maybe ....but you can see any of the 3 is capable at this class 

I'll try 5pt ew all suhail ....only will hill go 15/2 .....paddy are 7/2!! So I think he will shorten 

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140 good 

Raasel  8.7  5/1   112 74 96 

Vintage clarets   8.5 7/1  43 60 98

Dream composer   8.1  89 69 93 

Acklam express    7.9 67 65 57 

Acklam fails on class .....top 3 can be competitive in this class but top 2 are stronger ....raasel has 2 runs well in this class and vintage looks to be improving fast 

5pt wins top 2 

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Day one of Glorious Goodwood although looking at the weather forecast for the week it’s hardly going to be that! The ground for the beginning of the Festival in Sussex is currently good to soft following rain over the weekend and with more rain forecast we’ll be looking for the mudlarks in the four scheduled ITV races.
 
Goodwood 14.50
Sixteen handicappers declared for the valuable Chesterfield Cup Handicap run over 10F for four year olds and older.
Sir Mark Prescott’s Eagles Way makes a quick re-appearance having started his season off with second at Yarmouth five days ago and is a potential improver having racked up a four timer last season. It was good to soft at Yarmouth last week but he’s untested on anything worse than that and there is always the bounce theory.
The key piece of form here is the John Smith’s Cup where Pride Of America did well to get the call on the line from Astro KIng and as the Amy Murphy trained six year old loves the mud should be a player here. Back in third that day was the Ed Dunlop trained Haunted Dream (beaten 1 1/2L) and is now 2lb better off. That was the slowest ground he has raced on (good to soft) and is unproven on anything softer.
The horse I like though finished seventh that day (beaten 5 3/4L) which doesn’t really tell the whole story as William Haggas’s five year old exited from stall 20 and was plum last after a furlong having been dropped in. He ran on well to finish 7th and much more can be expected today as that was also his first run for 227 days. He was smart in France when trained by Mlle Stephanie Nigge and actually ran third in the 2021 French Derby. He looks primed to win now with soft ground very much in his favour and he’s a confident each way bet.
Local handler David Menuisier saddles his Caius Chorister with William Buick on board but he flopped last time so has a small question mark over him.
The Middleham stable of the Johnston’s has a great record in the race having won it four times out of the last 9 years and are represented by Outbreak but he has yet to encounter soft ground so is readily overlooked. One horse who is particularly well handicapped is William Knight’s Moktasaab, who runs in the name of Harry Redknapp. He ran third in this contest a year ago off of a 5lb higher handicap mark and is back on a winning mark now. He does however have to prove his effectiveness on a slow surface.
The bet is Millesbosc who has his conditions here and will have Tom Marquand in the saddle exiting from stall ten.
 
MILLESBOSC 2 points each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
 
Goodwood 15:25
The 7F Group 2 Nicholson Gin Vintage Stakes has attracted nine runners and is for two year olds only.
There’s very little soft ground form available which makes things quite difficult here. Richard Hannon who had an impressive winning two year old colt at Ascot on Saturday in the shape of Rosallion saddles the Phoenix Of Spain colt Haatem. Fifth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot he chased home the superstar City Of Troy in Newmarket’s Superlative Stakes at the July meeting on good to soft ground with stable mate Son 3 1/2L back in fifth and the Andrew Balding trained Spanish Phoenix a further 1 3/4L away in sixth.
Haatem can confirm that form with that pair and looks the one they all have to beat here.
Chesham third Golden Mind trained by Richard Fahey and ridden by Frankie Dettori can also play a part in the finish but has yet to race on soft ground although was third on his debut on good to soft.
Charlie Hills has booked William Buick for his Newbury winner in June Iberian but with only one of the seven that followed him home that day winning since and being unproven on soft ground looks opposable here especially as he was pulled out on the morning of the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting due to soft ground.
Aiden O’Brien sends over Mountain Bear, a Curragh winner on good ground in June but was soundly beaten at Royal Ascot and was pulled out on account of sort ground at Leopardstown last week so is unlikely to like soft ground.
With Sean Levey in the saddle this can go the way of the Hannon juvenile Haatem who can boost the City Of Troy Newmarket form by taking this Group 2 contest.
 
HAATEM 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365
 
Goodwood 4.00
A field of nine assemble for the Group 2 World Pool Lennox Stakes run over 7F which features the day’s best bet.
Ralph Beckett’s Kinross will be very hard to beat as long as he doesn’t find trouble. Berthed in stall one, Frankie Dettori’s mount won this in 2021 and ran second to Sandrine last year with a never say die run on the rail from Dettori just failing to get up. He’s run over the furlong shorter trip of 6F this season and was not disgraced when running third to Shaquille in the Group 1 July Cup last time. Back up to his optimum trip on ground he loves with his trainer currently firing at a 30% win rate he will be a tough nut to crack.
Al Suhail carries a 3lb penalty for his win at Meydan in March and was comprehensively beaten twice last year by Kinross whilst Newmarket winner Audience, trained by the Gosden’s, has yet to encounter soft conditions. Jumby was behind Audience last time along with Pogo who would appreciate a sounder surface.
There are four three year olds in the contest this year with the best of them, and Kinross’s main danger, being the Brian Meehan trained Isaac Shelby who appears to adore soft ground. He was a winner at Newbury first time out this season in the Greenham Stakes over this trip at Newbury on soft and was possibly unlucky not to win the French 2000 Guineas next time out when going down by a short neck. His subsequent fourth of 9 in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot can be forgiven as that was run on good ground and wasn’t a bad effort anyway as he didn’t get a clear run that day. He looks the danger to the favourite Kinross and is worth a small stakes saver.
 
KINROSS 3 points win @ 13/8 Betfred
ISAAC SHELBY 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hill
 
Goodwood 16:35
A fair sized field of eleven line up for the Group 1 2M Goodwood Cup.
Five of the 11 ran in the Ascot Gold Cup last month over a half a mile longer trip with the lightly raced Gosden trained four year old Courage Mon Ami doing us a favour with a majestic ride by Frankie Dettori, weaving through the field to beat Coltrane by a cosy 3/4L. That was only his fourth ever start and having previously won here looks the one to beat although there is a definite question mark over his ability to handle soft ground. Yet to race on a slow surface (his sire Frankel acted on any whilst his dam and relations kept away from soft ground) he may be vulnerable to a couple here dropping back to two miles.
Coltrane should go well although he too is unproven on soft ground and the horse I’m interested in is one of the two Aiden O’Brien runners in the four year old filly Emily Dickinson. She may not have stayed in the Ascot Gold Cup when 4 3/4L behind Courage Mon Ami in finishing fourth and has a record on soft ground of 1141. She has run out a comfortable 3L winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup since over 14F and back to two miles looks posed to run a big race with Ryan Moore preferring her over Broome (William Buick).
Roger Varin’s Eldar Eldarov won last year’s St Leger and is another with claims with the drop back to two miles possibly in his favour.
The best outsider appears to be Brian Ellison’s Tashkhan who is a real mud lover and is very capable if the mud is flying, he’s worth a small stakes each way saver.
A good renewal of this valuable staying race in which six of the last 7 favourites have won (three of those coming from the great Stradivarius) and as much as I would love to see Courage Mon Ami win here as he did us a big turn at Ascot we don’t bet with our heart so the bet is Emily Dickinson with a small saver on Tashkan.
 
EMILY DICKINSON 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 13/2 1/5th 123
TASHKAN 1/4 point each way @ 25/1 Coral 1/5 123
 
All odds were available at time of writing
 
 
 
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12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

140 good 

Raasel  8.7  5/1   112 74 96 

Vintage clarets   8.5 7/1  43 60 98

Dream composer   8.1  89 69 93 

Acklam express    7.9 67 65 57 

Acklam fails on class .....top 3 can be competitive in this class but top 2 are stronger ....raasel has 2 runs well in this class and vintage looks to be improving fast 

5pt wins top 2 

Really surprised Lord Riddiford  isn't high in your Ratings Rich low weight loves it here  soft ground no problem winner of this the last 2 years looks a cracking e/w bet to me👍

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46 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Really surprised Lord Riddiford  isn't high in your Ratings Rich low weight loves it here  soft ground no problem winner of this the last 2 years looks a cracking e/w bet to me👍

Well tbh I rated on good sft as the going stick was 6.6 but if it rains considerably more it'll ho soft ...I'm hoping it dries a little ... goodwood is usually good ground normally 

I think with Lord riddiford ...he's 8 which is negative....and his recent runs are nothing to write home ......he could bounce back of course ....but that's why he will rate low 

He's been backed I see so good luck 👍 

Edited by richard-westwood
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23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

For instance on the class rating ...this is the first race that has come off its the Lennox stakes Tuesday 

Al suhail    9.0  100 116 112 

Kinross   8.9 116 112 98 

Isaacs shelby    8.5   77 116 112 

Audience   8.2 28 54 74 

See on ratings alone it looks more open but audience is taking on much better opposition here so although he looks an improver I'd scrub him ........so I've narrowed it to top 3 so far ....it looks close between top 3 on class but Al suhail and Kinross look the strongest bets to me at the moment .....

A look at betting now shows all 3 are top 3 in betting ...with Kinross 13/8 fav ......I don't think he warrants that price given the ratings and class .....overall I think Al suhail 15/2  ew is the value bet 🤔 maybe ....but you can see any of the 3 is capable at this class 

I'll try 5pt ew all suhail ....only will hill go 15/2 .....paddy are 7/2!! So I think he will shorten 

Non runner...guess the grounds gone too soft ....prices have shortened so I'll just watch the race now 😭

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20 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Really surprised Lord Riddiford  isn't high in your Ratings Rich low weight loves it here  soft ground no problem winner of this the last 2 years looks a cracking e/w bet to me👍

I’ve got him high up in the ratings . I’m also experimenting with a RPR and weight carried points system and he’s joint top with Raasel on that but take that with a pinch of salt as it’s still in progress . Not having any bets today just testing. 
 

1.40 Raasel/ Lord Riddiford 

2.50  1 Lord Protector 2 Eagles Way 

Edited by Villa Chris
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Marbaan                                             4 00 Gwd/                  1/40th of a pt win            22/1

Ancient Rome                                    2 50 Gwd/                  1/40th of a pt ew             38/1          -      WON

Royal Dress                                        5 05 Gwd/                  1/40th of a pt ew             16/1          -      Placed

Salt Lake City                                     6 40 Galy/                   1/40th of a pt ew             16/1

A La Noche                                        2 15 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew              15/1

Cloud King                                         2 15 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew              70/1

Minnetonka                                       5 35 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew              22/1

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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One go at goodwood  today and after they have all run I’ll know how the course is running.

Be aware that Charlie and Mark Johnston are planning something big for this festival and their runners all week demand the utmost scrutiny.

Goodwood 1:40
The top weight is a non runner and that is great news for Raasal the new top weight.
On the traverse it is also good news (potentially) for lord Riddiford, lihou and
whenthedealingsdone.


Rasaal

win

Whenthedealinsdone

each way

All four horses  in a combination tricast

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Here we go with a week of Glorious Goodwood, a lovely course / day out to, as well as 'our' fav Ascot.........So good luck to all for the week and im sure be some big price winners  / placings due to the 'going'..........Am going to see how things go today with my picks and a few from the thread, before the last 2 Handicaps...... 

 

1.40   Vintage Clarets  4/1       &       Raasel     4/1         &               Lihou   20/1 EW             4 places

2.15   Alaskan Gold     8/1 EW   3rd  9/1       &         Union Island         6/1  EW                               

2.50   Eagles way    7/2               &           Soto Sizzler        14/1   EW            &        Outbreak    16/1 EW              4 places

3.25    Haatem    3/1    WON           &           Witness Stand    11/1 EW

4.00   Isaac Shelby     9/4          &          Audience     15/2    EW

4.35   Courage Mon Ami     2/1         &      Emily Dickenson       6/1  EW      2nd

5.05    Rajindri   14/1  EW          &             Lady Mojito    14/1 EW            &         Espresso      16/1 EW           5 places

5.35    Kitai   9/4             &      Executive Decision     7/1  EW     WON  9/1          &       Candle of Hope    12/1 EW           4 places

 

2 Wins 🏆 🏆 and 2 EW places.....looked like a loss today with total outlay of 100pts......until final race with 9/1 Win, so profit on account after all 👍 💷 ...

Gets better as now have £5 bonus credited for tomorrow, did £5 worth of EW multis that forgot about 😂 👍 ( got close with Rajindri / Executive decision)

    

Edited by Brahmin
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Have done a L25 and acca on the fun L15  = 3.50 points

1.40 Gdwd Raasel 7 points win at 5.2 = 23.81p, Vintage Clarets 4 pts at 8.6 = 21.85 and a cover bet on Dream Composer of 1.10 at 12.0 = 1.08 p if it wins

= 15.60 staked so far.

Tied up a bit today, but hopefully back later

3.35 Yar Spit Spot 2 pts win at 8.8 = poss p 15.29

17.60 staked so far

Edited by The Equaliser
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On 7/31/2023 at 11:14 AM, richard-westwood said:

Well tbh I rated on good sft as the going stick was 6.6 but if it rains considerably more it'll ho soft ...I'm hoping it dries a little ... goodwood is usually good ground normally 

I think with Lord riddiford ...he's 8 which is negative....and his recent runs are nothing to write home ......he could bounce back of course ....but that's why he will rate low 

He's been backed I see so good luck 👍 

Big drifter now as big as 9's!

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Regarding Lord Riddifords previous form you can ignore that because every time he’s won at Goodwood he’s had poor form . He loves the course , connections target this race so anything previous or after just put a line through because this is his target. Also helped he was on a lower mark than his previous festival win. Well done winners. 
 

Existent was my top rated for this race which finished 2nd. Lord Riddiford and the favourite were joint top rated in the RPR/Weight experiment I’m doing 

Edited by Villa Chris
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4 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Marbaan                                             4 00 Gwd/                  1/40th of a pt win            22/1

Ancient Rome                                    2 50 Gwd/                  1/40th of a pt ew             38/1

Royal Dress                                        5 05 Gwd/                  1/40th of a pt ew             16/1

Salt Lake City                                     6 40 Galy/                   1/40th of a pt ew             16/1

A La Noche                                        2 15 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew              15/1

Cloud King                                         2 15 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew              70/1

the Peerless spencer delivers

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Goodwood 4pm

kinross

win

marbaan

each way

kinross has already won this race two years ago and was second by a narrow margin last year.  Hss reached group 1 level too and if frankie wishes a good send off he has the horse here. He can be a bit rash on his rides but if he trust this horse he has as good a chance as any. Marbaan has won on this card under a shrewd ride before and is very well treated.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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