Introducing my Profitable Lay Horse Racing Strategy

[Yalwen]

Maria's a bit like Van Der Wheil. You either believe it or you don't believe it. Personally I don't believe that either were as successful as they would like us to believe.  I never saw any before the race predictions from either although they were both very wise after an event.  Plenty of people have spent an awful lot of time and research on the 'Flying Dutchman' so they must think it's all worth the effort. I prefer more simple strategies which are also less time consuming.  At the end of the day if you can consistently win above the average minimum wage at this game you are doing well.  The pleasure is in the action and the joy is when you are proved right. Infrequently for me, unfortunately but I do better now that I can read the research of some of the sages on this forum. Thanks, guys and gals.

[Villa Chris]

I looked his user name up and he got rumbled on Betfair forum a few years back. Each to their own but I’ve never understood laying horses . Doesn’t seem fun and it goes against the grain .

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I looked his user name up and he got rumbled on Betfair forum a few years back. Each to their own but I’ve never understood laying horses . Doesn’t seem fun and it goes against the grain .

I agree, I can't see the fun watching a race wanting a horse to lose. You might be able to scrape a few extra quid laying but if making a living is your aim there are easier ways to do it than horse racing.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree, I can't see the fun watching a race wanting a horse to lose. You might be able to scrape a few extra quid laying but if making a living is your aim there are easier ways to do it than horse racing.

Wow, I’m surprised about the negative sentiment in respect of laying as a concept I can understand anyone who’s anti odds on not being into the idea but as such a strong advocate for the merits of odds on shots I can’t see why you’d be adverse to the notion of opposing a horse you think won’t win or is too short a price. Surely it’s better having the rest of the field running for you at long odds on than just a single horse. I’m also surprised about the “can’t see the fun” comment. Sometimes you have several runners in a race, it’s not much of a leap to want all bar one to win. (To be fair, I never imagined you watching all the races you bet on: I doubt I watch more than 5% of the things I bet on, the pleasure is in the selection process and the results.) I also think the comment about scraping a few quid is a bit dismissive, and no more an apt description of laying than any other type of betting that most of us do. It’s not something I’ve done much of myself but I wouldn’t have expected someone as logical as you to be so adverse to a potential avenue of making a profit.

I guess if so many seasoned punters don’t like the idea of laying it explains why selling is so profitable. Nothing more fun than seeing a £20 profit flip to a £200 loss thanks to a couple of late goals!

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Wow, I’m surprised about the negative sentiment in respect of laying as a concept I can understand anyone who’s anti odds on not being into the idea but as such a strong advocate for the merits of odds on shots I can’t see why you’d be adverse to the notion of opposing a horse you think won’t win or is too short a price. Surely it’s better having the rest of the field running for you at long odds on than just a single horse. I’m also surprised about the “can’t see the fun” comment. Sometimes you have several runners in a race, it’s not much of a leap to want all bar one to win. (To be fair, I never imagined you watching all the races you bet on: I doubt I watch more than 5% of the things I bet on, the pleasure is in the selection process and the results.) I also think the comment about scraping a few quid is a bit dismissive, and no more an apt description of laying than any other type of betting that most of us do. It’s not something I’ve done much of myself but I wouldn’t have expected someone as logical as you to be so adverse to a potential avenue of making a profit.

I guess if so many seasoned punters don’t like the idea of laying it explains why selling is so profitable. Nothing more fun than seeing a £20 profit flip to a £200 loss thanks to a couple of late goals!

Fair points and I have considered looking at laying "poor" favourites but it would mean undertaking a lot more analysis which I don't really have the desire to do. I probably watch 50% of the races I have a bet on and will have a main bet in the race (occasionally there may be additional bets if it is an extra places race). The selection process and the profits are obviously enjoyable but I find the watching equally if not more enjoyable and I don't think I would enjoy it as much if I was laying.

 

[harry_rag]

Fair points too, I’m agnostic on the subject of laying but was just surprised people seemed so down on it as an idea. I spent a long time only betting overs, never betting at anything close to odds on and only buying on the spreads before I became more open to the notion of finding value in betting on things that other people don’t want to bet on. That usually entails things that aren’t fun to watch!

[Zilzalian]

42 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Fair points too, I’m agnostic on the subject of laying but was just surprised people seemed so down on it as an idea. I spent a long time only betting overs, never betting at anything close to odds on and only buying on the spreads before I became more open to the notion of finding value in betting on things that other people don’t want to bet on. That usually entails things that aren’t fun to watch!

"more open to the notion of finding value in betting on things that other people don’t want to bet on". Is a great strategy in my opinion but not for me this laying malarkey, far more fun in picking winners than finding losers but then again i don't have to make money out of betting (it's my hobby) but if i did have to make money i would consider anything/any angle.

[Sporting Sam]

To be fair, I think the  “negative sentiment” emanates from the source of the thread. Plenty of punters (myself included) are sceptical  of Geeks bearing gifts, and  are always en garde to such “overtures”.

Note the guy didn’t hang about to defend himself.
Picking out horses who are fancied to do well by most and by the market is part of the skill of finding decent winners. So the short priced favourite that we’ve eliminated is an ideal candidate for a lay.

If I’m trying to do a forecast or a tricast, quite often I’d want that same favourite to be in my combination.

Laying horses is not something I’ve considered, but I’m confident enough to identify poor favourites who others might like to try laying. 
Goodwood probably not the best place to start as they will be trying 100%. But on the other hand the market will not get it right in every race.

I already know Charlie and Mark Johnstone will have one or more primed to win over the course of the meeting. 
So over the next few days I’ll have a go at horses that I don’t think will be winning despite their place at the head of the market. 
Although not on this thread  on which the op has enjoyed plenty  enough of free oxygen.

[Snoopdog]

Years ago bookmake, Barry Dennis used to put up his "Bismarks" on Channel 4 Morning Line.

They could have made a lay strategy, though he was only advocating "avoidance".

They were short priced (reducing lay liability). Sometimes he would give 2 horses "coupled" in the same race to produce a suitably priced shortie.

I also recall a "Binchy's Lays" thread on this forum which ran for about a year.

It is an interesting subject but more difficult than it first appears. Stats gurus should be able to get their teeth into it.

[MCLARKE]

One thing I don't understand (I might be being thick) is why the lay price on betfair is higher than the back price 

[MCLARKE]

It is a serious question !

[harry_rag]

12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

One thing I don't understand (I might be being thick) is why the lay price on betfair is higher than the back price 

You might want to think again about that one, but we can excuse it on running the GGW comp. If it was lower you’d have an instant arb. You go on and say a selection is 5.5 to back you can take that price, lay it at 5.6 or request some 5.6 or bigger yourself which will get added on the lay side if someone wants to take it. If you wanted to lay it at a shorter price your money would be added to the back side (ooer) and would get matched if the horse shortened. The lay price HAS to be bigger than the back price, there’s no other logical way the market could function.

[harry_rag]

Maybe (and I could be thick straying into this territory) think of it like the bid and offer price with shares, one has to always be higher than the other. 

[Snoopdog]

10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

One thing I don't understand (I might be being thick) is why the lay price on betfair is higher than the back price 

It has to be. If it was the other way round, you could both back and lay a horse - and be in profit.

If you look at the favourite, the lay will be very slightly higher odds than back, eg 5/4 back, 11/8 lay.

Betfair might have an over-round of 105% back, and an under-round of 95% lay.

Betfair need a small profit on the book (plus commision).

You will see a big difference on longshots back, eg 20/1 back with bookie, 50/1 back on exchange. Bookmakers do not give fair prices on outsiders. When a longshot wins, the bookies are usually happy.

[MCLARKE]

33 minutes ago, Snoopdog said:

It has to be. If it was the other way round, you could both back and lay a horse - and be in profit.

I would expect them to be the same. You couldn't back and lay them because you would show a loss due to the commission.

I thought Betfair just made the commission, I didn't realise that they also make a profit on the spread.

[luckypants]

Very interesting thread and I can see all sides of the argument.  I'm a backer more than anything else, but I will lay one if I feel the odds are very short - more often than not in Novice Chases.  However, I also subscribe to a laying service with a built in strategy approach that gives me a little second income, so money certainly can be made from laying horses sensibly and with the odds on your side.  It's backing for me though that gives me most fun, and more importantly bigger wins!

[black rabbit]

13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Fair points too, I’m agnostic on the subject of laying but was just surprised people seemed so down on it as an idea. I spent a long time only betting overs, never betting at anything close to odds on and only buying on the spreads before I became more open to the notion of finding value in betting on things that other people don’t want to bet on. That usually entails things that aren’t fun to watch!

harry lets leave the "laying option" till we hit club land after about 8 pints and a curry 😆

[harry_rag]

25 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I would expect them to be the same. You couldn't back and lay them because you would show a loss due to the commission.

I’m surprised you haven’t grasped it with your investments background. You simply can’t have money available to back and lay at the same price on an exchange. If I want to back £100 at 5.5 and you want to lay £100 then our bets will be matched. If you wanted to lay £120 then my £100 would be matched and your remaining £20 would be available to backers. It’s literally impossible for them to be the same, the lay price HAS to be bigger.

[harry_rag]

19 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

harry lets leave the "laying option" till we hit club land after about 8 pints and a curry 😆

Tempting but you’re not my type mate! 

[MCLARKE]

9 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I’m surprised you haven’t grasped it with your investments background. You simply can’t have money available to back and lay at the same price on an exchange. If I want to back £100 at 5.5 and you want to lay £100 then our bets will be matched. If you wanted to lay £120 then my £100 would be matched and your remaining £20 would be available to backers. It’s literally impossible for them to be the same, the lay price HAS to be bigger.

If I want to back at 5.5 and you want to lay at 5.5 would the bets not be matched ?

[black rabbit]

6 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Tempting but you’re not my type mate! 

i get that comment quite often 😆

[harry_rag]

2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

If I want to back at 5.5 and you want to lay at 5.5 would the bets not be matched ?

 

13 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

If I want to back £100 at 5.5 and you want to lay £100 then our bets will be matched.

Yes! There can never be money available to back and lay at the same price at the same time as they will always get matched against each other. It’s not like a bookie who can choose to offer evens each of two about a coin toss (I’ve literally seen that done on the Super Bowl). The prices are determined by the backers and layers and there can never be unmatched money to back and lay at the same price.

[roger2256]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

If I want to back at 5.5 and you want to lay at 5.5 would the bets not be matched

  For yourself ' lays ' should be easy to identify,  you do it most days when you discard runners that don't fit the criteria to whatever system your using . 

Another angle is using habitual front runners , their price usually contract a few points .

Short price favs are a good source,  back early and chances are they will ' green up' before the race for a profit . Otherwise £20 on at , lets say 2.2 before the off, £30 order @ 1.46 in running = £10 profit assuming its matched of course which it should be . Whether they win or not isn't important as long as they ' green up ' 

Edited August 1, 2023 by roger2256
.

[Snoopdog]

I think I was incorrect in stating earlier that the back market overround was an exchange profit. On further thought, I don't think it is. It's merely a reflection of available back prices. It has to exist - or you could back every horse in the race and make a profit. (Similar in lay market.)

[harry_rag]

16 minutes ago, Snoopdog said:

I think I was incorrect in stating earlier that the back market overround was an exchange profit. On further thought, I don't think it is. It's merely a reflection of available back prices. It has to exist - or you could back every horse in the race and make a profit. (Similar in lay market.)

Yes, take one of tomorrow's games in the World Cup (Argentina v Sweden).

The respective prices (back/lay) are 6.2/6.4, 1.65/1.66 and 4.2/4.3. The back market is 100.54% and the lay is 99.1. I'll give £100 to anyone who can provide a genuine screenshot where the market has the Argentina back price at 6.4 at the same time as the lay price! 

[roger2256]

1 hour ago, roger2256 said:

  For yourself ' lays ' should be easy to identify,  you do it most days when you discard runners that don't fit the criteria to whatever system your using . 

Another angle is using habitual front runners , their price usually contract a few points .

Short price favs are a good source,  back early and chances are they will ' green up' before the race for a profit . Otherwise £20 on at , lets say 2.2 before the off, £30 order @ 1.46 in running = £10 profit assuming its matched of course which it should be . Whether they win or not isn't important as long as they ' green up ' 

Worcester 18.00

[MCLARKE]

I think I get it !

If I want to back at 5.5 and you want to lay at 5.5 then our bets will be matched and Betfair will have nothing to show

It will only show 5.5 to back if nobody is prepared to offer me 5.5

 

[harry_rag]

30 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think I get it !

If I want to back at 5.5 and you want to lay at 5.5 then our bets will be matched and Betfair will have nothing to show

It will only show 5.5 to back if nobody is prepared to offer me 5.5

 

If I wanted to back the fav in the post above yours at 1.55 I could just take some of what’s there. if I wanted £2k I take it all and the rest would appear in pink waiting to be laid with the back price changing to 1.54. If I wanted 1.56 it would get added to the amount available to lay. A backer or layer can change both prices by asking for more than is available but there is nothing that either could do that would result in both prices being the same. It’s like a seesaw that can never be exactly level! 

[siamorbet]

Welcome back, fellow punters! 🎉 After a two-day hiatus, we're back on track and ready to share our top tips.

Our first pick comes from the 14:10 race at Perth. We're LAYING Champagne Gift! Here are the details:

• Liability: £500
• Potential Profit: £86.20

Get your bets in, and let's kick off the day with a win. 🏇💰

Welcome back, fellow punters! 🎉 After a two-day hiatus, we're back on track and ready to share our top tips.

Our first pick comes from the 14:10 race at Perth. We're LAYING Champagne Gift! Here are the details:

• Liability: £500
• Potential Profit: £86.20

Get your bets in, and let's kick off the day with a win. 🏇💰

[siamorbet]

Bet Update: 14:10 Perth – Success! ✅

We LAYED Champagne Gift and it led to a solid profit of £86.20.

Next Tip: 14:45 Perth – Lay For Jim

• Odds: 8.2
• Liability: £500
• Potential Profit: £69.44

Let's continue with a steady approach and aim for consistent results.