Racing chat - Saturday 8th July

[richard-westwood]

Just posting early because a tipster picked top rated 

Old Newton cup 

Maksud  8.9 9/1 

Euchen glen  8.7 22/1 

Alrite sunshine 8.3 

Certain lad 8.3 

Tomasseus fox  8.1 

Very very tricky race ....certain lad is by no means guaranteed to stay a fast run 12f so I've shelved him 

Alrite sunshine and teumassis fox both ran stinkers lto so not an ideal prep so also shelved on that ....

Euchen glen has age very much against ...ordinarily I'd oppose but with dangers in short supply this horse is capable on a good day and conditions 12f good or good sft look ideal 

Maksud has form 70 so not ideal but I think he has been running better than bare form and hcapper has dropped a few lbs so is looking well hccaped now ....conditions 12f good sft or good are perfect and can improve markedly on the day 

Maksud 10pts win 9/1 

Euchen glen 10pt win 22/1 

[Brahmin]

just seen the days feature race 'Eclipse' has only 4 runners 😲 ............unbelievable as prize money for 5th £20,000 and 6th £10,000 !!!

nb......now after seeing the race, incredible a few more didnt run as who is to say that they might not get a 4th place for £40,000!!!!

Edited July 8, 2023 by Brahmin

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, Brahmin said:

just seen the days feature race 'Eclipse' has only 4 runners 😲 ............unbelievable as prize money for 5th £20,000 and 6th £10,000 !!!

I know, I’m thinking of stealing a horse from the local farm to get some much needed prize money 

[The Brigadier]

It’s Coral-Eclipse day and although theres only four runners it’s still an intriguing contest between the classic year contender Paddington and his elders. The race is due off at 15:40. The ITV cameras are also showing three other races from Sandown plus three from Haydock where the feature race is the competitive Old Newton Cup which is due off at 15:15.

Following rain during the week both courses are reporting good ground with maybe some slight ease in it. Here’s my thoughts on the seven races.

 

Sandown 13:50

Eleven go down to the 5F start for the Coral Charge, a Group 3 contest for three year olds and upwards. The race has a very open look about it with many holding decent claims. The best in at the weights is Mick Appleby’s Annaf, who if he can reproduce his 2 3/4L 3rd to Bradsell in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot is arguably the one to beat. He did go off 50-1 that day mind so there is a slight question mark over whether he can re-produce that run today. William Haggas’s Tiber Flow has to carry a 3lb penalty for last weekends win at Newcastle and is dropping to the minimum trip for the first time.

Charlie Hills is a dab hand with sprinters and saddles a brace here in Equilateral and Equality ridden by Jamie Spencer and William Buick respectively. Preference would be for the latter who was a very easy winner of a Windsor handicap over 5F last time.

Karl Burke’s Marshman also carries a 3lb penalty here and has the assistance of Ryan Moore. He can lose lengths at the start so he comes with his caveats.

Any number of these could win so I’ll keep my stakes small and back the in form Equality under William Buick.

 

EQUALITY 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Haydock 14:05

A valuable £100,000 guaranteed three year old 1M 6F handicap kicks things off at the Lancashire track and we have a good sized field of fourteen for this one. Tom Clover’s exciting Rogue Sea has been well supported during the week and looks the one to beat on his handicap debut having impressed when winning at Yarmouth (10F soft ground) and Ripon (11F fast ground). He steps up another three furlongs here which should suit and with Danny Tudhope in the saddle should be thereabouts. Sir Mark Prescott sends his hat trick seeking Pledgeofallegiance who stays well, having already won twice at this trip though has been raised 7lb for his latest comprehensive win at Doncaster only 8 days ago.

William Haggas saddles Lordship who laughed at his opposition at Yarmouth last time over this trip beating Miss Cynthia by half a length at Yarmouth. The handicapper stuck him up 8lb for that cosy win mind. Michael Bell brings his soft ground Chester maiden winner Banderas up from Newmarket and sports first time cheek pieces for his handicap debut.

This is a tough handicap which will be worth following going forward and although I feel Rogue Sea could be the blot on the handicap he does have his stamina to prove and has ben well found in the market so I’ll take an each way chance on the Haggas runner Lordship under Adam Farragher, who claims 3lb and was so cool on him at Yarmouth last time.

 

LORDSHIP 1 point each way @ 6/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Sandown 14:25

A decent sized field of fifteen go to post for the valuable class 2 Coral Challenge, a handicap run over a mile. It has a very open look about it with many having claims on their best efforts. Roger Varian’s Perotto is undoubtably a well handicapped horse on his old form when trained by Marcus Tregoning and is nicely berthed in stall 4 with Tom Marquand doing the steering and has claims whilst last year’s third Ouzo had a few of these behind when a credible 6th in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last month and has to be one for the shortlist under trainer’s daughter Saffie Osborne. Saeed Bin Suroor saddles an interesting runner in Major Partnership who has been shunted up 4lb for his latest victory at Nottingham from Point Lynas. He is another who could run well.

The best outsider for me is the Ian Williams trained Silent Film who wasn’t disgraced in finishing 8th (of 29) in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot last month. He’s stepping up in trip here but has won over a mile and could be the value play each way. William Buick has been booked which can only be a positive and he’s the selection.

 

SILENT FILM 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Haydock 14:40

The Lancashire Oaks is run over 1M 3f 175 yards and is a Group 2 contest for fillies and mares aged three year old and upwards. We have a warm favourite this year in the John & Thady Gosden trained Mimikyu who’s been well backed throughout the week having originally been put in at 5/2. Her best effort came last September at Doncaster’s Leger meeting when winning the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes in a first time hood by 2 3/4L from Eshaada. She flopped in the Group 1 Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot the following month but ran a cracker on her re-appearance on ground that may have been too fast for her when going down by a short head in a Group 3 at York. There’s talk that she worked better than her stable companions Emily Upjohn and Soul Sister in a racecourse gallop last week at Newmarket and she will be hard to beat.

Her biggest danger may well be the Richard Hannon trained Aristia but shes stepping up in trip and has yet to prove conclusively that she stays as far as this.

Sea Silk Road ran out an apt winner of the Lester Piggott Stakes (the old Pinnacle Stakes) over course and distance four weeks ago with two of today’s rivals Poptronic and Time Lock behind and William Haggas’s Sea The Stars filly is another who can take a hand in the finish but for me this is all about Rab Havlin and Mimikyu.

 

MIMIKYU 2 points win @ 6/4 Coral

 

Sandown 15:00

The Coral Distaff is a listed race for three year old fillies run over a mile and has attracted a field of eleven following the late defection of the favourite Breege.

In her absence the Hugo Palmer trainer Stenton Glider, who was last seen running second in the Group 2 German 1000 Guineas last month is the one to beat but I’m happy enough to take her on at the likely prices with the John & Thady Gosden trained Bridestones who was last seen when finishing mid div in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot although her finishing position would of been much better had she not been knocked sideways a couple of furlongs out. Shes’s still lightly raced and may well have some more improvement to come. William Buick has been booked and she can take a very winnable contest.

 

BRIDESTONES 1 point each way @ 9/2 Unibet 1/5th 1234

 

 

Haydock 15:15

A maximum field of seventeen line up for tis year’s renewal of the Old Newton Cup, a valuable class 2 handicap run over 1M 4F. The race has a very open look about it although if there is one horse who may be much better than his current mark than it may well be the William Haggas trained La Yakel. He’s one of two Haggas runners in the field with last year’s third Gaassee being the other. Not seen since last October at Newmarket he did miss a valuable handicap at York at the Dante meeting due to the drying ground so has been ready to run for a while now. This will only be his sixth ever career start and will have to be part of the staking plan. I also want the Charlie Fellowes hat trick chasing Cumulonimbus on my side as he’s two from two at the Lancashire track with his latest win coming over course and distance and is working out nicely. A 5lb rise for that victory is unlikely to stop him from being competitive here under Richard Kingscote from a nice stall in eight.

Others with chances include Hughie Morrison’s Royal Ascot flop Maksud who’s surely better than that run and the Eve Johnson Houghton trained Sheer Rocks who’s chasing a hat trick of victories although his latest win hasn’t worked out that well.

A tough call but I’ll split my stakes between La Yakel and Cumulonimbus.

 

LA YAKEL 1 point each way @

CUMULONIMBUS 1 point each way @

 

Sandown 15:40

There may only be a small field but a very intriguing race is in store with the three year old colt Paddington stepping up distance against the year older filly Emily Upjohn who’s dropping in trip. Theres nothing between the pair on official ratings but I just think that Paddington will be more at home at this trip than his chief rival Emily Upjohn will be. There are also reports of a rather laboured work out at Newmarket from last weekend that hardly stills confidence in the Gosden filly who dispenses with the hood that shes worn on her last two starts.

 

PADDINGTON 2 points win @ 11/10 bet365

 

All odds were available at time of writing

 

 

[MCLARKE]

The big handicap this Saturday is the Old Newton Cup at Haydock.

It is open to 4-year-olds or older and is run over 1 mile 3 furlongs and 175 yards. The off time is 15.15.

19 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The key stat is age. 5 and 6 year-olds have won 7 from 57 runs and have recorded a profit of 93 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have 2 wins from 83 starts and have made a loss of 54 points.

It is best to avoid those horses at the top of the market but also outsiders. Horses that are forecast 8^th to 11^th in the betting have 5 wins from 36 attempts and have made a profit of 96 points.

A recent run is helpful. Horses that last ran more than 24 days ago have won just 2 from 64 runs.

 

This leaves just 1 selection.

GAASSEE 16/1

This is available at 16/1 with BET365. I suggest backing each way as they offer 5 places.

 

[tonythepaint]

26 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The big handicap this Saturday is the Old Newton Cup at Haydock.

It is open to 4-year-olds or older and is run over 1 mile 3 furlongs and 175 yards. The off time is 15.15.

19 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The key stat is age. 5 and 6 year-olds have won 7 from 57 runs and have recorded a profit of 93 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have 2 wins from 83 starts and have made a loss of 54 points.

It is best to avoid those horses at the top of the market but also outsiders. Horses that are forecast 8^th to 11^th in the betting have 5 wins from 36 attempts and have made a profit of 96 points.

A recent run is helpful. Horses that last ran more than 24 days ago have won just 2 from 64 runs.

 

This leaves just 1 selection.

GAASSEE 16/1

This is available at 16/1 with BET365. I suggest backing each way as they offer 5 places.

 

Just a quick question. When you say "horses that are forecast 8th to 11th in the betting" what betting forecast are you using.

Thanks Tony 

[MCLARKE]

I actually use data from Race Advisor. I believe they get their feeds from the Racing Post. You could use Oddscheckers (Gaassee is forecast 8th in their list).

[Villa Chris]

3.15 Haydock 

Euchen Glen 9.87 20/1

Dark Jedi 9.74 33/1

Gaassee 9.57 14/1

Maksud 9.59 8/1

Teumassias Fox 9.59 12/1

Looking at the form of the top two they tend to run well one race then not so much the next and that’s a pattern they seem to have. Both seem capable going off their recent form. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Villa Chris

[Tedthewolf]

3pts e/w 3.15 Hay-GAASSEE 14/1 bog 5places  Corals (now 12's) 6pts Invested

[Zilzalian]

Coral Eclipse is a total waste of money when racing is struggling,  getting on a million in prizemoney. The winner becomes a group 1 winner beating 3 rivals. That money should be redistributed down to the lower levels of racing (which i dislike) it could add  £1,000 to a 1,000 races at least it will encourage more less wealthy owners. Any group race that doesn't attract at least 6 runners at 48 hour stage should be voided or let them run just for the black Type no prizemoney. That's my little rant over.

[kensland]

Having ew bet on K Dalglish's final runner before trainer hands in his licence.

3.15. Hayd. Always Sunshine     28/1

stk 2 ew      rtn 71. 00

Patent

2.55. Liec. Making Dreams       5/2   2nd

6.42. Nott. Instant Recall           5/1

4.02. Bevl.  Ana Gold                  6/1      1st 

stk. 3.50       rtn. 132.50.

Good luck all. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Good day yesterday.

Some very good tips put up here by many.

I am unable to get away from my at the post approach to race reading.

Maybe it is the rush from assessing races in double quick time. 

It did yield eight winners ( nine if you include a winning distance bet on one of them) and a similar number of each way placed runners.

I'd rather put them all into an acca of course.

I took  on Hugh Taylor again yesterday and beat him with two placed horses.

I'd love to have a chat with him, but I think he is very comfortable in the living he makes.

( He puts cryptic clues in his write ups as to the unlikely chances of some of his selections, luckily his bosses haven't spotted them, or are just happy for him to put money in their pockets).

I'm sure we'd come up with some stonking winners.

Edited July 8, 2023 by sporting sam

[LEE-GRAYS]

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, sporting sam said:

Good day yesterday.

Some very good tips put up here by many.

I am unable to get away from my at the post approach to race reading.

Maybe it is the rush from assessing races in double quick time. 

It did yield eight winners ( nine if you include a winning distance bet on one of them) and a similar number of each way placed runners.

I'd rather put them all into an acca of course.

I took  on Hugh Taylor again yesterday and beat him with two placed horses.

I'd love to have a chat with him, but I think he is very comfortable in the living he makes.

( He puts cryptic clues in his write ups as to the unlikely chances of some of his selections, luckily his bosses haven't spotted them, or are just happy for him to put money in their pockets).

I'm sure we'd come up with some stonking winners.

Gotta be honest I absolutely love looking at  horses in paddock and going to post .....I've had so many winners I've lost count and its fun to stand there with your program jotting down little scores next to each horse ..... you just can't do it on telly properly .....you need to watch a horse walking around 3 or 4 times to see if it's sleepy ....if its getting too wound up .....if the coat and appearance looks good which you can only see close up .......I even ask the handler what they think 🤔 if I've narrowed race to 2 and they are normally forthcoming......I've had 1 say he'll prob need run whereas another will say ... we really fancy him today and that can be the sole diff in what u bet on .....  you just can't do that on telly .....you can do it a little I'd say like 40 % .....but there's absolutely no comparison to being there .....I'd recommend it to anyone ....if you know you know 

[pa4410]

Sandown 1.50 - Equality 5/1

Sandown 2.55 - Intellogent 11/1

Sandown 4.15 - Majestic 7/2

Sandown 5.25 - Orchestra 11/2

 

Good luck all !

[black rabbit]

Magical Sunset                              3 00 San/                 1/40th of a pt win       15/2

West Wind Blows                          3 40 San/                 1/40th of a pt win       30/1

Luisa Casati                                    2 40 Hyd/                1/40th of a pt ew        28/1

Howth                                             3 15 Hyd/                  1/40th of a pt ew        50/1

Dark Jedi                                         3 15 Hyd/                 1/40th of a pt ew       25/1    -     N/R

Bonkersinabundancw                  5 17 Lei/                   1/40th of a pt win       14/1

Escobar                                           2 25 San/                 1/40th of a pt ew         33/1

Haunted Dream                            4 15 San/                  1/40th of a pt ew        25/1    -  2nd

Al Motasim                                     7 52 Car/                  1/40th of a pt win       10/1    -  N/R

 

 

 

 

P/L    + 163.75 pts

Edited July 8, 2023 by black rabbit

[calva decoy]

3 hours ago, kensland said:

Having ew bet on K Dalglish's final runner before trainer hands in his licence.

3.15. Hayd. Always Sunshine     28/1

stk 2 ew      rtn 71. 00

Patent

2.55. Liec. Making Dreams       5/2

6.42. Nott. Instant Recall           5/1

4.02. Bevl.  Ana Gold                  6/1

stk. 3.50       rtn. 132.50.

Good luck all. 

Shame about Dalgleish calling it a day , nice little angle when he was sending 1 down to Chelmsford or elsewhere down South for a midweek night race you'd mostly get a good run for your money .

Not sure what the weather's like at courses today but I'd imagine quite a few non runners & going changes , it's just been biblical rain here in East Anglia ☔

[Villa Chris]

4 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Shame about Dalgleish calling it a day , nice little angle when he was sending 1 down to Chelmsford or elsewhere down South for a midweek night race you'd mostly get a good run for your money .

Not sure what the weather's like at courses today but I'd imagine quite a few non runners & going changes , it's just been biblical rain here in East Anglia ☔

Just started raining in south staffs 

[Villa Chris]

6.00 Bellewstown 

Tronador 9.5 14/1

Sundial 9.31 4/1

These two bit clear of the rest . Tronadors last couple of hurdle runs last year were poor but i believe that was down to distance(3m) and soft ground . His optimum trip is around 2m -2.4m and he runs at 2.1 today and off a very winnable mark. He comes here in good form on the flat at similar distances, so should be primed for this. He also has a good claimer in Ben Harvey taking 5Ibs off so is effectively running off 120.  The JP horse who’s favourite Sundial has a very good profile to take this but I’m glad I’ve got the 14/1 shot as my bet. 
 

5 points win 

[kensland]

Haydock. 

Single. 

3.50. Flaccianello        17/2  unpl

stk 5.00     rtn 47.00

Good luck all. 

Edited July 9, 2023 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

On 7/7/2023 at 1:28 PM, Villa Chris said:

3.15 Haydock 

Euchen Glen 9.87 20/1

Dark Jedi 9.74 33/1

Gaassee 9.57 14/1

Maksud 9.59 8/1

Teumassias Fox 9.59 12/1

Looking at the form of the top two they tend to run well one race then not so much the next and that’s a pattern they seem to have. Both seem capable going off their recent form. 

2.25 Sandown 

Perotto 9.87 6/1 won 

Silent Film 9.72 11/1

Intellogent 9.7 12/1

Orbaan 9.69 40/1

Im using this race to double up with the race above purely because it’s paying the most places on the day with the race above. 1.50 ew doubles = 6 points . Top two with top two above race although Euchen and Dark Jedi both came down in price from yesterday 12/1 and 16/1 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Villa Chris

[The Equaliser]

Advise 1 L15 on the Daily.  I hope that Will Buick and @The Brigadier have a good day

Already advised 11 points on the 3.15 at HD 7 points w Maksud at 7/1 and 2 pts ew on Euchen Glen at 16/1 5p.  Good luck to @richard-westwood' selections

Total stakes = 13 points today

[Sporting Sam]

2.55 leicester

Making dreams

Win

Karle Burke does well in these races exploiting the weights.

Surface to air.

Each way.

David Evans had the one two in this last year.

Bellewstown 5.30

Is a happy hunting ground and it looks like Encato Bruno has a straight forward task on maiden hurdle debut. Listed bumper class at Cheltenham and has gone very well. Now is the hour is a thirty length point to point winner and makes his rules debut for Gavin Cromwell. Yard gave me an excellent winner yesterday and comes unexposed into this sphere with a very good speedy flat pedigree. Will not scratch the surface of a listed bumper horse but could go well.

ENCATO BRUNO to win by 5.0 lengths or more @ 7/4

NOW IS THE HOUR 

each way 33/1 or better 

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by sporting sam

[Brahmin]

 

Sand 1.50     Raasel  11/1 EW          &     Tiber flow     13/2 EW    3rd     8.63 pts            3 places

Hayd 2.05      Bulldog spirit  40/1 EW    4th    33.75 pts        &      Midnight Lion     10/1  EW           4 places

Sand 2.25      Intellogent    16/1 EW           &      Spirit catcher     12/1 EW               4 places 

Hayd 2.40      Mimikyu     9/4                    &   Peripatitic     15/2  EW                       3 places

Hayd 3.15      Maksud  6/1          &         Sheer rocks    11/1 EW     &     Woottonsun    18/1 EW    Won  15/2     55pts      5 places ( late NRs re 4places / prices)   

 👍 Thank you to The Brigadier for Paddington @ 4/5 which took my day to nicely over 120pts profit 💷......with my win 🏆 & big EW price

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Brahmin

[Libby48]

Sandown 

1.50/ Get Ahead 6/1/ Makarova 12/1

Haydock 

2.05  Rathgar 22/1

3.15 Alright Sunshine  22/1

Sandown 

2.25 May song 16/1

Beverley 

4.02 Speriamo  12/1

 

E/w

 

 

 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Naas 2.10

CLARITA

Win.

Barrier trial winner on this course

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Haydock 3.15

LA YAKEL

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

2.25 Sandown 

Perotto 9.87 6/1 won 

Silent Film 9.72 11/1

Intellogent 9.7 12/1

Orbaan 9.69 40/1

Im using this race to double up with the race above purely because it’s paying the most places on the day with the race above. 1.50 ew doubles = 6 points . Top two with top two above race although Euchen and Dark Jedi both came down in price from yesterday 12/1 and 16/1 

There’s the first leg in with Perotto winning. Let’s hope I can land the win double 

[Sporting Sam]

Naas 2.45

Buyin Buyin 

Gets in here without a penalty and will take all the beating.

Behind givemethebeatboys but  well ahead of valiant force. 

Withdrawn prior to the Coventry and with a win under the belt brings strongly franked form to the piece.

Debutante

Cool Dan

each way 

Is well bred and represents a yard well forward with it's juveniles. Ger Lyons and Colin Keane.

[Bang on]

4.02 Bev - Golden Melody - 10/1 EW (1/5th 3 places with365) - Has slipped to her lowest mark since 2021. Top course Jockey, and Top course Trainer combo, this CD winner should at least get placed and at 10/1 is a fair EW selection.