Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Veronika Kudermetova to beat Marie Bouzkova at 1.57 with William Hill

Good win for Bouzkova in the previous round, but Kudermetova is in a very good nick at the moment, having lost only against Swiatek, which is no shame. Despite her high ranking, I think that she's still a bit underrated honestly, she's like top 5 for me when in a form like this. Bouzkova was struggling massively not that long ago, and I don't see her getting two big wins back-to-back here.

[Smiles Tennis]

@CzechPunter Can you move my two picks in last weeks thread to this weeks again please?

 

No worries mate,  I just copied it below. 👍 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Smiles Tennis

[Smiles Tennis]

Posted last night in last week's thread so copied it here. 

WTA Rome - Haddad Maia to beat Osorio - 1.81 with Betfair

 

Haddad Maia is levels above Osorio who is having a storming week. Maia is 55-18 on clay since the start of 2021 so she's no slouch on the dirt. Osortio got through mainly because Garcia had a mental breakdown during the match. She's now been on court for almost 8 and three quarter hours in Rome and Haddad Maia will be the toughest test she's faced yet. 

 

WTA Rome - Kasatkina to beat Ostapenko - 2.44 with Betfair

 

Kasatkina had a tough time against Grabher who was hitting everything well today. Ostapenko routed Krejcikova who fell apart when winning 5-1 in the first set and too much credit is being given to Ostapenko for this I think. She should be a slight favourite but Penko needs to be firing to win and that doesn't always happen. Kasatkina grinded her way through that match and served well from the bits I saw. She will need to serve well to not drop the ball in Penkos striking area but 2.44 is good for me to back her to win. 

[CzechPunter]

Karolina Muchova (+1.5 sets) to beat Paula Badosa at 1.66 with Unibet

I'm not a massive fan of either right now at the moment, but I don't really know why Badosa is favored so much here. She's having a rocky season so far, and her recent results don't make her a top 10 player again on their own. Muchova has been going through some difficulties as well, and I think that there's every chance that we'll see a hard-fought encounter here given all that, with Muchova taking at least a set.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Rome Rybakina to beat Swiatek 5.1 with Betfair 

 

Swiatek should win on her fave surface but 5.1 is too big for Rybakina even though its on clay. 

[CzechPunter]

Yue Yuan to beat Diane Parry at 2.20 with William Hill

I think there's some value in backing Yuan to get another upset in Paris. She beat the very dangerous Friedsam quite comfortably in the previous round, while Parry struggled against Janicijevic, and she hasn't been in any sort of form pretty much since the start of the year. The Paris conditions are pretty specific, and it seemed to me yesterday that Parry isn't a big fan.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Rome - Ostapenko to beat Badosa - 2.6 with Spreadex

This one is on Ostapenko's racket. She can fire everything and beat everyone or throw it all away. Badosa has improved recently but Penko has been firing more than not this week and 2.6 looks a good price for a player who is 6-7 as underdog since the start of last year (2-2 on clay).

Edited May 17, 2023 by Smiles Tennis

[Schokolade]

22 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

WTA Rome - Ostapenko to beat Badosa - 2.6 with Spreadex

This one is on Ostapenko's racket. She can fire everything and beat everyone or throw it all away. Badosa has improved recently but Penko has been firing more than not this week and 2.6 looks a good price for a player who is 6-7 as underdog since the start of last year (2-2 on clay).

23 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yue Yuan to beat Diane Parry at 2.20 with William Hill

I think there's some value in backing Yuan to get another upset in Paris. She beat the very dangerous Friedsam quite comfortably in the previous round, while Parry struggled against Janicijevic, and she hasn't been in any sort of form pretty much since the start of the year. The Paris conditions are pretty specific, and it seemed to me yesterday that Parry isn't a big fan.

I appreciate your inputs a lot. I log in to see your thoughts.

 

[CzechPunter]

I didn't even know he was planning to come back!

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Florence - Paolini to beat Yastremska - 2.24 with Betfair

Both players don't favour clay but Paolini leads the h2h 4-1 (none on clay) and playing at home. Paolini pushed Rybakina for a close first set before losing so that would have given her confidence. 

Yastremska won 6-3 7-5 against the number 296 wild card entry and still gave up 8 break points and with her opponent winning 59% first serve points and just 36% second serve points, Yastremska could only win 4/9 break points herself. 

I think Paolini is worth a shot at these odds. 

[CzechPunter]

I'd say that Paolini certainly likes clay way more than Yastremska!

[Smiles Tennis]

On 5/16/2023 at 5:16 PM, Smiles Tennis said:

WTA Rome Rybakina to beat Swiatek 5.1 with Betfair 

 

Swiatek should win on her fave surface but 5.1 is too big for Rybakina even though its on clay. 

Got lucky with this one 😂

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Paris - Volynets to beat Cornet - 1.94 with Betfair

Cornet who will surely retire soon has been in crap form this year. This is the first time she's reached a third round or further this year and lost 6-0 6-2 to the #156 a couple of weeks ago. 

Volynets is at the other end of her career and on the way up mostly. She reached the SF in Saint Malo at the start of this month and took a set off Cirstea in Rome. Volynets averages over 70% first serves and Cornet has lost 5/6 against players hitting an average of 70% first serves in, also, in four of those five defeats she was the favourite. 

 

 

[Swami]

Bouchard vs Errani @1.57

Errani yesterday played more than 2 hours to win against Raina, then she played double (another hour), she is 36… Bouchard had a day off and it looks like she is taking the tournament seriously, moreover, in the recent past she has been particularly harsh with fellow players suspended for doping (Errani is one of them) and I imagine she might be pretty focused on court today…

[CzechPunter]

Matilde Paoletti (+6.5) to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.83 with Unibet

Paoletti is on the run of her life this week, and I don't see her giving up this tamely against Townsend. Granted, I do think that Townsend will win and that it will be reasonably easy as well, but the +6.5 line is huge!

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Paris - Noskova to beat Parry - 1.5 with Betfair

Parry's been in horrible form recently and although she reached the SF in Zagrab 60K the highest ranked player she beat was #197 before losing to the #482 ranked player.

Parry hasn't beaten a top 100 player on clay since last July and hasn't beaten one on any surface since September. Noskova will target Parry's backhand and make life difficult for her. She retired against Rouvroy #309 but apart from that her full match defeats in the last three months are only by Gauff, Kvitova and Linette. 

[Swami]

10 hours ago, Swami said:

Bouchard vs Errani @1.57

Errani yesterday played more than 2 hours to win against Raina, then she played double (another hour), she is 36… Bouchard had a day off and it looks like she is taking the tournament seriously, moreover, in the recent past she has been particularly harsh with fellow players suspended for doping (Errani is one of them) and I imagine she might be pretty focused on court today…

It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to start a match on wet clay when you have a knee injury, but Bouchard knows better for sure…😤

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Rome Rybakina to beat Kalinina 2-0, 1.95 with Betfair 

Kalinina has spent an extra 3.5 hours on court at Rome compared to Rybakina. She's battled and fought her way through 3 setters, it's taken everything she's got. Rybakina has had a walk in the park really with retirements going her way and Ostapenko just being herself. 

Rybakina has the serve firing, her ground strokes will pound over the net and after a few games I think Kalinina will realise she can't do another long battle against a player of her calibre. 

Rybakina in two for me. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Smiles Tennis
adding the details

[CzechPunter]

Well, looks like Kalinina will get some time off unfortunately!

[Smiles Tennis]

Have they put it off till tomorrow yet?

[CzechPunter]

Fortunately it stopped raining!

[Smiles Tennis]

4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Fortunately it stopped raining!

Yep.  I'm watching a bit now,  maybe 30 mins I can do. 

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Paris - Parry to beat McNally - 2.00 with Betfair

Parry has been serving better this week and with the home crowd on her side I think she edges this one. McNally has played well but favours indoor hard rather than clay and Parry might just be entering some decent form before the French Open. 

[four-leaf]

53 minutes ago, Smiles Tennis said:

WTA Paris - Parry to beat McNally - 2.00 with Betfair

Parry has been serving better this week and with the home crowd on her side I think she edges this one. McNally has played well but favours indoor hard rather than clay and Parry might just be entering some decent form before the French Open. 

You're rather late in backing Parry sadly, she obviously should have been backed long time ago

[Smiles Tennis]

30 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

You're rather late in backing Parry sadly, she obviously should have been backed long time ago

I backed her at 2.00 about 5 mins before I posted this.  I always try to post my picks just after I've backed them myself. 

Down to 1.82 so nice value. 😁

[Smiles Tennis]

41 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

You're rather late in backing Parry sadly, she obviously should have been backed long time ago

I've just seen she won by walkover.  My bet will be void then.  I'm assuming that's what you were referring to in your post? And not just the price?

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I've just seen she won by walkover.  My bet will be void then.  I'm assuming that's what you were referring to in your post? And not just the price?

Yes I meant a long time ago by the matches she's played this week before today. To bad you came on to late with Parry, she's had quite good prices on her this week.

[Smiles Tennis]

7 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Yes I meant a long time ago by the matches she's played this week before today. To bad you came on to late with Parry, she's had quite good prices on her this week.

Yeah true, but her form has be terrible so didn't want to jump in too early. I often like to find capable underdogs playing an out of form favourite,  like Rus beating Anisimova the other week.  

Parry has points to defend at the FO though so we'll see what her draw looks like. Can't see her defeating the reigning champ in R1 like last year though lol

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Yeah true, but her form has be terrible so didn't want to jump in too early. I often like to find capable underdogs playing an out of form favourite,  like Rus beating Anisimova the other week.  

Parry has points to defend at the FO though so we'll see what her draw looks like. Can't see her defeating the reigning champ in R1 like last year though lol

That's kind of a bit to early to say you know even though it's Iga who reigns because Iga might be out of FO if she doesn't make it in time with her injury.