Racing Chat - Saturday 6th May

[The Brigadier]

The first classic is upon us with the Qipco 2000 Guineas taking center stage at Newmarket this afternoon. The ITV cameras are there for five races including the big one at 16:40 whilst they will be showing the Thirsk Hunt Cup plus a class 2 handicap from Goodwood. The ground is good to firm at Newmarket although there are showers on the way whilst the ground at Goodwood is on the slow side and perfect good ground at Thirsk. Here’s my thoughts on the days action.

 

Newmarket 14:15

An interesting fillies and mares 6F listed contest that has attracted eleven runners. Micheal Dods saddles a brace of sprinters in the shape of Azure Blue and Gale Force Mayo with preference for the latter who has such a good record here. I am concerned however by the form of the County Durham based trainer who’s had just the one winner in his last 35 runners although that did come earlier this week. The latter is officially the best in the field at today’s weights and should run well mind.

The drying ground appears to have gone for Karl Burke’s Fast Response whilst Richard Hannon’s useful filly Heredia is dropping a furlong which isn’t certain to suit.

I’ll take a chance with the only Irish runner in the field in the shape of Ken Condon’s four year old Spring Fever who will be ridden by Danny Tudhope. Lightly raced in her Classic year she was a Tipperary maiden winner over 7 1/2F in August prior to putting up her best performance when 3rd in a Group 3 at the same track three weeks later at 7F. She is dropping in trip here but has some juicy future entries including the 6F Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot (the only runner in the field to hold an entry in that prestigious sprint) and is maybe worth taking a chance on.

 

SPRING FEELING 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5 123

 

Newmarket 14:50

A wide open 6F class 2 handicap with a near maximum 23 runners spread across the Newmarket Rowley Mile. Chances can be given to many with my short list comprising of Charlie Hills’s Tanmawwy who is 2lb well in here having run well when runner up at Newbury a fortnight ago.

Last year’s winner Blackrod is an interesting runner who is now in the care of Roger Teal and may well have prepped for this with an outing on the all weather at Kempton last month. The stable are not really firing at the moment mind and he is 2lb higher than last season.

Ed Walkers consistent sprinter Popmaster was 9th in this last year and is now 9lb better off with Blackrod for a 2 1/2L beating so could go well having run down the field at Newbury in the race that Tanmawwy was second in a fortnight ago.

Celsius would be high up on my short list as he has a very good record fresh wining on three of the last four seasons first time out and the booking of Harry Davies looks enticing. His form actually ties in with Tom Tate’s Equiano Springs who has won four times from five starts here at Newmarket. The ground was probably on the slow side for him when he also ran too free here at the Craven meeting and at a big price I’ll take him to cause an upset with Celsius also in the staking plan.

 

EQUIANO SPRINGS 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

CELSIUS 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Goodwood 15:05

Just ten have declared for this class 2 0-100 10F handicap with the likely favourite the Charlie Hills trained, Shadwell owned Maghlaak. He starts off in handicaps off of what may be a workable mark of 86 and is chasing a hat trick here following wins at Kempton on the all weather and over course and distance last September. That win hasn’t worked out that well and may represent poor value here. Richard Hughes’s Aussie Banker arrives in good form having placed twice in his last two starts on the all weather and has claims but the horse I like best is the John And Thady Gosden trained Honiton who was a bit unfortunate in bumping into some decent sorts last season including My Prospero (official rating now 121), Secret State (OR 110) and Eldar Eldarov (OR 116). He ran flat on his handicap debut at Royal Ascot which came a week after an easy win at Sandown. He’s been gelded since and a handicap mark of 93 looks very workable. The drying ground maybe against mudlark Bad Company who did it so well at Epsom 11 days ago whilst top weight Stay Well has run well fresh in the past and is not out of this.

 

HONITON 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 15:25

Another bumper field for this valuable 9F class 2 handicap, the Howden Suffolk Stakes. Many can be given chances with Godolphin’s King Of Conquest right amongst them having won a valuable handicap in Bahrain in February. The handicapper has reacted by rising him 10lb for that but he should be thereabouts.

Jimi Hendrix proved his Lincoln Handicap run to be all wrong when scooting up at Newbury last month, a race for which he’s been raised 9lb for. He should be thereabouts also if coping with this sounder surface.

The drying ground may be against the likes of Empirestateofmind, Great Max and Titian however.

Last year’s course and distance winner of the Cambridgeshire Majestic trained by Jack Channon ran well on his re-appearance on heavy ground when 4th in the Lincoln, a race that has worked out well, and back on better ground has to be a player here and he’s the each way pick for me although I can’t resist a small saver on track specialist Turntable who’s won 4 of his 6 races at this track including twice last Autumn when ridden by today’s capable jockey Kaiya Fraser who claims 7lb. This is his first run for a new trainer in the very much in form Harry Eustace having joined from the now retired Chris Wall.

 

MAJESTIC 1 point each way 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

TURNTABLE 1/2 point each way 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Thirsk 15:40

The feature race of the day at the Yorkshire track is the 1M Thirsk Hunt Cup, a class 2 handicap for 4 year olds and upwards and has attracted a healthy field of 15. The race has a real open look about it with plenty holding chances of sorts.

Top weight Cruyff Turn is the best horse in the race but one thinks that this will be a race to get him ready for another go at York’s Dante meeting. A couple who’s form entangle together is the Ann Duffield trained Billyb and Micky Hammond’s Carnival Zain with preference for the latter who’s well berthed in stall 5 and is two from two here. With the useful Aiden Brookes, claiming 5lb booked he’s worth a small each way bet in such an open handicap.

David O’Meara saddles a trio of runners with Autumn Festival, who racked up a a five timer last season having to put a poor well beaten effort at Musselburgh on his re-appearance behind him whilst Pisanello was third in this last year from a one pound higher handicap mark. Tuscan is the third O’Meara runner whom I fancied a bit last week at Haydock when easy to back and running moderately.

 

CARNIVAL ZAIN 1/2 bet each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 16:00

The Group 3 Palace House Stakes is up next with a good sized field of 17 going to post for this 5F contest. Take out the rank outsider Sandbeck and on official ratings there’s only 7lb between the sixteen showing how open the contest is. Although I do think that Henry Candy’s five year old Twilight Calls has an excellent chance. A winner first time out for the last two seasons he has the assistance of Ryan Moore today and a reproduction of either of his second spots in Group 2 and Group 1 company last Summer would be good enough to take this with his optimum conditions today. Trainer Candy has his string in fine form winning with 3 of his last 10 runners and must go close here even if he did go off a similar price last year when only finishing 5th.

John Ryan’s Manaccan has to carry a 3lb penalty for his Group 3 Dundalk victory last Autumn and should be thereabouts but I much prefer Twilight Calls.

Charlie Hills does so well with his sprinters and saddles a brace here in Equilateral and Equality with preference for the latter who goes well fresh and has the assistance of William Buick today. He can run well but it’s all about the Candy horse for me.

 

TWILIGHT CALLS 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 16:40

The first colts classic of the 2023 turf season is as intriguing as ever. Aiden O’Brien sets a poser by saddling both last year’s top rated two year old Little Big Bear and the highly promising Auguste Rodin. Ryan Moore appears to have chosen the latter but it can’t have been an easy decision with his mount ideally needing further so any rain before race time would suit him. In contrast Little Big Bear who will be ridden by Wayne Lordan looks fast and has doubts about seeing out a mile although his breeding suggests he may well stay a mile.

Chaldean comes here as a smart juvenile whose attempt at having a prep run ended in disaster with Frankie Dettori unseated at the stalls in the Greenham at Newbury a fortnight ago. He should be thereabouts and Dettori will be hoping for a classic win in his final year race riding.

Sakheer may well struggle staying the mile whilst the pick of the Godolphin pair may well be Silver Knott although he was behind Chaldean last year and his stable seem to be struggling for top form at the moment.

Royal Scotsman should not be overlooked either but I’ll take Little Big Bear to score for team Ballydoyle as he was the best of these as a juvenile and although there’s plenty of talk about him not staying his pedigree suggests otherwise.

 

LITTLE BIG BEAR 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5 1234

 

 

All odds are accurate at the time of writing

 

 

[kensland]

Newmarket. 

Single. 

3.25. Jimi Hendrix      11/2

stk 5.00   rtn 32.0

Good luck all. 

[Tedthewolf]

Dark Moon Rising @ 25/1

Thirsk 15:40 - 

4 - 1/ 5

 

Returns £0.00

 

Gis A Sub @ 33/1

Newmarket 14:50 -

6-1/5

 

0.5pts e/w & 0.5 e/w double  = 3 pts  not bog

 

1pt win Royal Scotsman @ 9/1

Newmarket 16:40 - Winner

4 - 1/ 5

 

Returns £0.00

 

2pts e/w Chairmanoftheboard @ 16/1

Newmarket 14:50 - Winner

6-1-1/5

 

1pt e/w double = 7 pts not bog

 

Total bet 10pts

Edited May 5, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[richard-westwood]

250 newm 

Tanmawwy  9.0 7/1

Summerghand  8.9 16/1 

Blackrod    8.6 12/1 

Silver samurai   8.4 

Apollo one 8.3 

Very competitive race ....shoukd be fun to watch .. ..I'll try 10pt wins top 3 and forecasts top 3 😁 

[kensland]

Patent. 

1.55. Goodw. Lightship      6/1

5.15. Newm.  Expert Agent       11/2

4.20. Goodw.  Sera Dawn            7/2

stk.3.50       rtn. 164. 50.

Good luck all. 

[fd1972uk]

Demitasse gosford 0250 ew

[Sporting Sam]

Japanese selection

6.25

First visit to this track

Kyoto 

UN

Each way 

Fourth appearance for new yard.

First run over a distance close to winning trip. Two early month wins last year in March and July over 7f and 8f.

Notable this runner races over this trip on fourth run having been campaigned over wrong trip.

Small stakes in a field of course winners 

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

7.30

Kochi

Royal purple

Win

Seven length winner over shorter last run.

Thrash metal

Each way 

Coming to hand  again with recent third.

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[kensland]

Newmarket. 

4.40. Royal Scotsman        9/1

stk 5.00    rtn 50.00 

Good luck all. 

[Sporting Sam]

Japan

1035

Saga

Cosmo Elan D'or

Each way

Two good runs on debut yielding paces after no apparent form for old stable. Competitive looking race and berthed in the middle of the track for this sprint race.

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[Darran]

 

I like West Lawn in the 7.40 at Hexham tonight and he was twice a winner over hurdles last year and I think there is every chance a mark of 85 over hurdles is a very kind one given he won off this mark here over hurdles back in June. He has had a couple of starts in points this year and at Alnwick in January he looked in need of the run when finishing a well beaten 4th. It could be there was an issue because he didn't run again for another 3 months at Corbridge on Easter Monday. He was really well backed that day from 10/1 into 3/1 and he bolted up by an easy 12L. He won't mind what the ground is and he clearly stays well. It isn't the worse race you will find for the grade, but he looks well handicapped to me so looks a solid e/w bet.

 

Without Conviction is the favourite and he had come down the weights and started to run well again before winning in good style at Ayr last time off a mark of 94. He has been raised 8lbs for that and the jockey can only claim 5 now not 7 plus he has struggled off marks in the 100s before. Ex S'Elence looked well handicapped off 77 based on his two pointing wins earlier in the year and so it proved as he won over 2m4f here in heavy ground (it was Cheltenham week and I missed seeing him running that day). He was pulled up next time, but has been 2^nd twice and won again at Newcastle since. The last 2^nd was over course and distance a couple of weeks ago and he is should go close again.

 

Dolly Dancer has been backed, but I am struggling to fancy her. She does have a fair record here having won 2, finished 2^nd twice and 3^rd once from 10 starts, but she needs to improve a fair bit on her two runs so far this year. Event Of Sivola was 3^rd just behind Ex S'Elence 12 days ago, but ran as if he needed the 4m he won over here in November and will need lots of rain to make it a real test of stamina. Skyhill won 3 times last season and loves a test of stamina. Has gone up 7lbs for the last win 3 weeks ago at Sedgefield, but that wasn't much of a race and I think he needs plenty of rain again.

 

Eveque could be a danger as he was 4^th in the Ex S'Elence race here 2 weeks ago which was a big improvement on his 1^st two runs after a year off. He is 0-14 under rules, but cheek pieces go on for the first time and that might just eek out some more improvement. Another danger could be Robert D'Ores especially if he is backed. He won an Irish point by 16L in December and he has got himself handicapped by running in maiden and novice hurdles over 2m and 2m4f. He now steps up to 3m and goes over fences for his first run in a handicap off a mark of just 79. Now he was slightly fortunate to win that point as the leader fell at 2 out and then the next leader fell at the last, but it was still a run good enough to suggest he might be well handicapped.

 

I will have a bit on Robert D'Ores as he has been backed as well. Eveque and Ex S'Elence are also dangers, but the main bet I have is certainly going to be on West Lawn who if he runs as well as he did at Corbridge will see him bang there.

 

West Lawn e/w @ 11/2 with William Hill

[Ryanpete]

Good morning guys

4.40 Newmarket little big bear 4/1

5.00 Goodwood Johnjay 4/1

 

Best of luck to you all 😄

[Sporting Sam]

Saga 1240

Mittsuno Chikai

Win

Tachyon

Each way

Both of  these runners are kept to a strict cycle of early and late month runs producing wins in the past and both placed here last may on the cycle. Course winners. 

Tachyon may benefit from the defection of a fancied rival drawn alongside. At the prices they are both win bets

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

 

11/2 winner in Japan not the prices I have been wanting but nice to get a winner on the board after four races.

Goodwood 1.20

Quantum impact

Win

Zabbie

Each way

This race has been won by stall 1 for the past two years.

Zabbie in stall 3 is the lowest weighted lowest drawn and one of only two girls running and gets a significant weight pull.

It goes without saying I use the draw a lot in my assessments because contrary to what the experts say and want everyone to believe, it is one of the most important factor in many aspects of flat racing.

Quantum impact has a big race entry in France and may well be a cut above the rest. Has to overcome an 8lb rise which won't be too easy but if he does he'd be in the french race....

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[black rabbit]

Saint Lawrence                             2 50 New/         1/40th of a pt ew 25/1

Titian                                              3 25 New/         1/40th of a pt ew  28/1

Arecibo                                          4 00 New/         1/40th of a pt ew  25/1

Spring Feeling                              2 15New/         1/40th of a pt win 12/1

Tuscan                                          3 40 Trsk/          1/ 40th of a pt win 16/1

 

 

 

P/L   + 159 pts

Edited May 6, 2023 by black rabbit

[Sporting Sam]

 

Naas 1.35

LOKADA

DISTILLATE

both win 

[Sporting Sam]

Goodwood 1.55

Zellie

Win

Candle of Hope

Each way

Zellie has her  first run for John Gosden and was fourth in the Guinea's last year. 

Candle of Hope in the kings colours would be an likely winner on these terms.

[Sporting Sam]

Unlikely winner ( correction)

 

Naas 2.10

Tourist W/O Johannes Brahms @ 13/8

He may be ready to win on his own merit to be fair as the yard often have their two year olds ready early.

Ger Lyons often gets his youngsters ready early and the O'Brien runners often need the run and are overbet.

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[calva decoy]

400 Newmarket - VADREAM 14/1 eway bet365 in from 20's , will love all the rain coming down & probably be soft all over by the off , Arecibo & Raasel will also enjoy the soft .

1st 7/1 , been smashed in all day 👍

Edited May 6, 2023 by calva decoy

[Sporting Sam]

 

Cork 2.23

Roccos Inspiration

Each way

Big chance here.

[Sporting Sam]

Naas.

2.45

Iva batt

Win

Course winner and recent form franked by blairmayne last night.

Un Bacio Ancora

Each way 

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

L15 and Acca on Daily L15 = 2pts

2.50 Nm Summerghand 0.50 ew at 14/1, Strike Red 0.50ew at 16/1 and Equiano Springs 0.50 ew at 25/1 7p

3.15 Uttx Cremant 1 pte ew at 12/1 5p

4.40 Nm Chaldon 1 pt win at 7.2

4.55 Thsk Temper Trap 1 pt ew at 25/1 4 p

Total stakes so far = 10 points

-------------------------------------------------

One outright and one placed winner and a tiny return on the L15 meant a small profit of 0.93 on the day.  MTD = -8.50 and YTD  -78.85

Edited May 6, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Sporting Sam]

Cork 2.58

Troubled times

Win

Rating of 108 modest.

Listed performer in bumpers and won recent races with some authority. Good opportunity in this novice race at the weights. Plenty to take him on so will need to put it all in here to win.

[Sporting Sam]

 

Newmarket 3.25

Figures12154-16-3612234-

Cadillac

Each way

Hard to believe that Cadillac hasn't been in a handicap before and Ryan Moore rides this ex Jessica Harrington runner for the first time. Top weight here and well below highest mark. There's a penalty carrier in the adjoining stall 7 and if liking the pace and the going could go well.

[fd1972uk]

Had jimi hendrix and majestic in last race, meh.

Had an issue which seems widespread with betfair, their multiple £10 hasn't released the bonus, pity as the horses who were odds on all came in, so bit restricted with bets.

Quantum impact cost my double with teum. fox at 1340 nm

Probe and azure blue have been successful.

Coral bet bundle been a bit off, although got a couple in guineas

Royal Scotsman and silverknott, if betfair releases may go for one of the 2 favs and the carpenter who races later.

[alexcaruso808]

Doncaster - 18:25 - Higher Law win @ 5.00

[calva decoy]

Delayed 7.55 at Donny with 3 protesters handcuffed together near Rose Hill , security have got bolt cutters & dragged them off , well done , should let the crowd loose on them ! 😁

[Sporting Sam]

Doncaster 8.25.

How impressive

Win

Turf debut and showed decent ability latest.

MUNTADAB

Each way

Course specialist. No spring chicken but priced accordingly.

[Sporting Sam]

Hexham 

Vocal duke

Each way

Finally.

*********

Unplaced never went a yard.

Muntadab 3rd at Doncaster @ 14/1 paid three places.

Edited May 6, 2023 by sporting sam