Tennis Tips - May 1 - May 7

[CzechPunter]

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Madrid - Begu to beat Samsonova - 2.32 with Betfair

Samsonova can be devastating when she's on her A game but that is a rare occurrence. She beat Ostapenko last round but that's not hard when Penko isn't firing. Samsonova is better suited to the faster courts and Begu is no mug on clay.  

Begu can be consistent and keep getting those balls back for Samsonova to deal with, along with finding the corners with some power. I edge towards Begu in 3 sets but having a bit of Begu with the win at 2.32 as a better chance. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Smiles Tennis

[CzechPunter]

Aslan Karatsev to beat Alex De Minaur at 2.50 with William Hill

As much as I hate to be backing Karatsev, I think that the odds are just too high given his form and the Madrid conditions. They favour his attacking tennis, and he can just blow De Minaur off the court if he continues bashing like he has against a couple of really good players already. This should be like 2.10 imo, not 2.50.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Madrid - Sabalenka to beat Andreeva 2-0 @1.75 with Ladbrokes

Andreeva is flying, she turned 16 the other day (yesterday maybe?) but shows no fear on the court, hitting well from both sides and moving well. Sabalenka is a different ball game though. Her power is unmatched by most, and when the market puts Sabalenka at 1.30 or below (like here), then she's won 18/19 and only dropped two sets I think in those 18 wins. 

Sabalenka to teach Andreeva about top level tennis today and I am backing the 2-0. 

Andreeva has a bright future for sure though.

[ejmali333]

Zapata to beat Safiullin @1,57 bet365

Zapata to beat Safiullin 2:0 2,50 bet365

I'm not really sure why the odds are going up so much on Zapata... It's clay, Spain and opponent with 3 times less matches on clay as him. Good enough for me...

Sabalenka to beat Andreeeva 2:0 @1,72 bet365

Totally agree with Smiles Tennis... Nothing more to add.

Kudermetova to beat Kasatkina 2:0 @3,50 bet365

I watched Kudermetova against Potapova and she was solid, especially on her serve... I think the conditions in Madrid with high altitude suits her way more than Kasatkina. Small stakes tho...

Garin to beat Fritz @2,75 bet365

Frits has been one of the most constant player of the year so far by reaching QF/SF on most of the tournaments he entered (reached even two SF on clay!), but this has to stop at some point. I expect him to lose today and early in Rome and Roland Garros... Garin is at least a TOP20 player on clay and will run down a lot of those powerful ground strokes from Fritz. If this happens, Fritz will eventually start missing and making unforced errors.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Madrid: Begu to beat Sakkari @2.30 with William Hill

Begu as I said the other day is no mug on clay. Sakkari got past Badosa who just felt the nerves too much in front of the home crowd. Sakkari doesn't like being the fave herself with many short price losses. 

So I wanted to look here at Sakkari as a fave on clay when facing the current top 50. She's 8-7. Just in the positive which you would expect to be higher. So who did she beat? Gauff, Alexandrova, Keys, Mertens, Anisimova, Tomljanovic, a list that is hardly busting with clay court specialists. 

Begu can bring her problems, and again I see her being about 2.1 or maybe even a 50/50 shot, so going with Begu here at 2.3.

 

[ejmali333]

Fokina to beat Coric 2:0 @2,37 bet365

I'm late today, the match has already started, result is 1:1 40:40, Coric on serve... If you can catch odds above 1,90 just take it!

Edited May 2, 2023 by ejmali333

[ejmali333]

1 hour ago, ejmali333 said:

Fokina to beat Coric 2:0 @2,37 bet365

I'm late today, the match has already started, result is 1:1 40:40, Coric on serve... If you can catch odds above 1,90 just take it!

I'm watching this match live and I just can't believe Fokina allowed Coric to be this close in the first set... He made so many amateur unforced errors but otherwise dominating form the baseline. Under 9,5 games + Fokina to win 2nd set combo for me! (Fokina serving first so one break should usually be enough)

[CzechPunter]

Ysaline Bonaventure (+4.5) to beat Elina Svitolina at 1.85 with Unibet

I've been both backing and opposing Svitolina recently, and I think this is a good time to oppose her again. Bonaventure is a solid player, she's had some reasonable form recently, and she can hold her own against most players, really. Svitolina hasn't improved as much as I was expecting her to.

[CzechPunter]

Elina Svitolina (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.94 with Unibet

This time around, I'll actually be backing Svitolina, as Jeanjean doesn't seem to have the weapons that are required to trouble her. She's far too erratic from the back of the baseline, she doesn't have a great serve, and she typically lacks confidence as well. She's just a completely different match-up than Bonaventure was, and one that should suit Svitolina.

[CzechPunter]

Alright, so that one came in as well! Svitolina - Stephens doesn't look too interesting to me betting-wise, slight edge to Stephens, and that's what the odds suggest as well.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA St Malo - Stephens to beat Svitolina - 1.88 with Betfair

I am going to go the other way to @CzechPunter and say Sloane v Svitolina does look interesting now I have had a deeper look. 

Svitolina has finally started getting some wins under her belt during her comeback which is good. She needed to get some minutes on the court to clear the rust. I thought this match would be on Stephens' racquet and after a little data hunt decided she should be a little bit shorter than she is so will back her. 

Svitolina has spent an extra 1.45 hours on court this week and that will take it's toll on her. Stephens seems to want it this week, her last three tournaments as first seed were first round defeats so motivation looks to be on point this week. She has had easier matches but she's dispatched them without too much trouble. 

So the extra time on court, and the fact that Svitolina has offered up an extra 10 break points to her opponent (23 vs 13) than Stephens has makes me think Stephens should take this and should be a bit shorter, she will grab those breaks fast if they're offered up and the legs could start to tire if Sloane is rallying well and not making the errors. 

 

[Torque]

57 minutes ago, Smiles Tennis said:

WTA St Malo - Stephens to beat Svitolina - 1.88 with Betfair

I am going to go the other way to @CzechPunter and say Sloane v Svitolina does look interesting now I have had a deeper look. 

Svitolina has finally started getting some wins under her belt during her comeback which is good. She needed to get some minutes on the court to clear the rust. I thought this match would be on Stephens' racquet and after a little data hunt decided she should be a little bit shorter than she is so will back her. 

Svitolina has spent an extra 1.45 hours on court this week and that will take it's toll on her. Stephens seems to want it this week, her last three tournaments as first seed were first round defeats so motivation looks to be on point this week. She has had easier matches but she's dispatched them without too much trouble. 

So the extra time on court, and the fact that Svitolina has offered up an extra 10 break points to her opponent (23 vs 13) than Stephens has makes me think Stephens should take this and should be a bit shorter, she will grab those breaks fast if they're offered up and the legs could start to tire if Sloane is rallying well and not making the errors. 

 

The trouble with Stephens is you never know when any motivation you think she might have will wane. She's not a player I can back because she's had a succession of shocking results since winning the US Open, and there's no question a lot of them have been down to lack of effort. If I had to back her in this one, I'd be a lot happier if she was plus money. Fatigue could certainly be an issue for Svitolina, both in terms of court time here plus recently returning from maternity leave but I think she's a more motivated player than Stephens and that could be what makes the difference. Certainly at odds against Svitolina would be the play for me.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA St Malo Final - Minnen to beat Stephens @2.46 on Betfair. 

Sloane got past Svitolina yesterday but all she had to do was just put the ball back in play and Svitolina would hit the net or hit long most of the time. Minnen is levels below a fit and sharp Svitolina but she's in form at the moment. 30-7 for the year and 7-1 on clay. She's beaten Liu and Navarro here as underdog and I am hoping won't be making the amount of errors Svitolina made. 

I think she will be forcing Sloane to go for more winners and that didn't come off too well yesterday, she made a few winners but plenty of errors. I would have put Stephens with a similar chance today, a lower standard opponent but more in form. 

I think Minnen is worth a shot at this price. 

[Smiles Tennis]

ITF Bonita Springs - Day to beat Li - @2.5 on Betfair

Both playing well this week but Day leads the head to head including winning last month in straight sets against Li on clay. Day has climbed the rankings slightly this year, Li has dropped about 60 places. 

I would make Day a bit shorter, she was 2.6 ish when she beat her last month.