Racing Chat - Saturday 1st April

[The Brigadier]

The 2023 turf flat season kicks off at Doncaster with the ground very much on the slow side with official conditions riding soft (heavy in places). Our friends at ITV are showing four races from the Yorkshire track plus an additional three from Kempton on the all weather. Here’s my thoughts on all seven :-

 

 

Doncaster 1.50

The 2023 turf flat season begins with its usual race the Brocklesbury Stakes, a two year old race run over 5F with 18 newcomers spread across the straight track of Town Moor. The early betting exchanges are always very interesting for this race and it appears that the Amo Racing owned Valadero is the one they all want to be with. Trained by Dominic Ffrench Davis he cost 250,000 euros as a yearling which rose from the 80,000 euros which was paid for him as a foal. He’s been backed from 4/1 into 6/4 and can obviously go a bit. Andrew Balding is a trainer who can have his two year old string ready early and saddles Loaded Gun who cost 75,000 euros as a yearling. Karl Burke’s Indication Call is another to mention as he cost 42,000 guineas as a yearling and his trainer normally has them ready to roll early. Equiart is another for early money been backed from an early 20/1 into halve those odds so Darryll Holland’s cheap yearling is interesting. Not a race to get too involved with especially with the ground so testing.

 

 

Kempton 2.05

Seven go to post for this 1m 2F listed Magnolia Stakes. Charlie Appleby sends to two to Kempton Park today with the first being his Secret State who was a smart sort as a three year old last season winning three times including two valuable handicaps at Royal Ascot and Goodwood over 12F. Last seen over 14F he’s been gelded since and could easily win this but I’m a bit worried today’s trip may be on the short side and at the prices I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet. Belloccio is three from three at the track although is another whom dropping in trip may not be ideal. There was little between Tyrrhenian Sea and Foxes Tales in the Winter Derby at Lingfield last time finishing 2nd and 3rd behind the subsequent Dubai Turf winner Lord North with slight preference for Roger Varian’s Tyrrhenian Sea and he’s the pick here to small stakes especially with the Varian team in excellent form winning with 2 of his last 3 runners.

 

TYRRHENIAN SEA 1 point win @ 11/2 BetVictor

 

Doncaster 2.25

The Pertemps Network Spring Mile Handicap is for those that didn’t make the cut for the Lincoln later on on the card and is run over the straight mile having attracted a full field of twenty two this year (last year’s field only made seven!). There’s many here that have no soft ground form but a couple that do and can go well are Grant Tuer’s Dirtyoldtown who’s wearing blinkers for the first time here under Sam James and the Roger Fell trained Harswell Duke who loves very soft ground having won three times on it in his career. He won a brace of handicaps on very soft ground in the Midlands last October. Part of his owners, the Harswell Thoroughbred Racing, mooted after his last win last October that this was the plan and with the ground coming right for him and an interesting jockey booking in 5lb apprentice Jonny Peate taking his mark down to below his latest winning mark looks worth having a go at each way with additional places.

 

HARSWELL DUKE 1 point each way @ 14/1 Coral 1/5 12345

DIRTYOLDTOWN 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5 123456

 

Kempton 2.40

A dozen handicappers assemble for this one mile class 3 handicap. It has a very open look about it with several pushing for favouritism. My fancy is the John Butler trained Brains who has booked William Buick for the ride which is hardly a negative. The seven year old gelding runs better here than anywhere having winning 4 of his 8 starts at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, with his latest victory coming in December by 4L off of 71. He’s 12lb higher here but actually has raced off of higher marks in his career. Andrew Balding has booked Oisin Murphy for Al Marmar and in first time cheek pieces is also a possible along with the likes of Kevin Philippart De Foy’s Million Thanks and top weight Naval Commander trained by Robyn Brisland. A wide open handicap where stakes should be kept small with Brains the each way pick.

 

BRAINS 1 point each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

Doncaster 3.00

The listed Cammidge Trophy is run over 6F of the sodden turf here at Town Moor and has attracted a dozen sprinters. The best in at today’s weights are Michael Dodds’ Comanche Falls, last year’s Stewards Cup winner who acts on any ground and goes well fresh with his form figures after a fair sized break reading 112. He’s a player here for sure. Also rated jointly the same is Karl Burke’s El Caballo who won six on the bounce prior to flopping in last year’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and having not been seen since one has to worry if he’ll be ready on ground as bad as todays. King’s Lynn, trained by Andrew Balding for The King, has good track form reading 1221 and soft ground shouldn’t be a problem. He should be thereabouts along with James Horton’s Asjad who’s stepping out of handicaps today but only has officially 5lb to find with the top rated duo. I’ld be worried about the ground for Richard Hannon’s Ehraz and the one I’m interested in here is Karl Burke’s Fast Response who, although having 9lb to find to match the front pair, adores soft ground and is unbeaten in two starts on the straight course here at Doncaster. His form figures on soft or heavy read 71111 and it can’t be soft enough for this son Fast Company. Sam James takes the ride and I’ll play this mudlark each way.

 

FAST RESPONSE 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Kempton 3.15

Only six go to post for this valuable class 2 2M Queens Prize Handicap which features the last two year’s winners in Sleeping Lion and Bandinelli. The latter is the second runner on the card from the Charlie Appleby stable and with William Buick on board has to be respected although he’s now 2lb higher than when winning this last year and lost his form after that good effort. Favourite here is the Andrew Balding trained Aztec Empire who took his tally to two from two here when winning here last time out in February with Aced It back in third beaten 3L and now 6lb better off. This will only be Balding’s four year old’s sixth start and may well have more improvement to come especially at this trip. He’s the selection here although I do fear the Jamie Osborne trained Duty Of Care who is a half brother to the very smart Expert Eye. He’s taken his form to another level since stepping up to two miles winning twice over course and distance rising some 9lb.

 

AZTEC EMPIRE 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Doncaster 3.35

The feature race of the day is the Pertemps Network Lincoln Handicap with a maximum field of 22 going to post for the one mile handicap. Newmarket handler William Haggas has won the race four times before and saddles a brace of runners here in Montassib and the current favourite Al Mubhir. Preference has to be for the latter who has had his wind done since we last saw him run out a comfortable winner on heavy ground at Haydock last October. He looks sure to be thereabouts although he’s plenty short enough now. Simon and Ed Crisford’s Awaal looked good in the mud when bolting up in his first handicap at Redcar last October and a gelding operation since puts him in here with a big chance. As one would expect there’s many others with soft ground form that come into it here with Charlie Fellowe’s Atrium and Charlie Hill’s Wanees top of that list. George Boughey saddles Baradar who won in heavy ground here over 7F last November and should appreciate the step up to a mile (he was 3rd in the Group 1 1m Futurity as a two year old). Kevin Stott rides for owners Amo Racing and I’ll dutch him up with the Crisford’s Awaal.

 

AWAAL 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

BARADAR 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

All odds are accurate at time of writing

[richard-westwood]

15 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Just finished rating lincoln 

Al mubhir  9.0 4/1 

Croupier   8.9 25/1 

Wanees   8.6    17/2 

Jimi hendrix  8.2 

Montassib    8.2 

Al mubhir sets a good standard and will love the  soft ground so definately the one to beat .....Croupier and wanees both will go on the ground whereas the other two woukd prefer better ground ....10pt win top rated ...5pt win croup and wannees

 

 

[richard-westwood]

Spring mile 

arthurs realm 8.0  10/1

isla kai 7.8 17/2 

Dutch decoy   7.5  25/1 

tough race as you'd expect and the ground makes it doubly tricky so I'll just try 5pt wins top 3 and hope they run near to their ratings 

[MCLARKE]

After months of jumps action, the focus turns to the flat on Saturday with the traditional curtain raiser, the Lincoln Handicap. As the name suggests, this race was originally run at Lincoln racetrack but when this course was closed in 1964 it was transferred to Doncaster. It is run over 1 mile and is open to horses aged 4 years or older. Off time is 3.35.

22 go to post and some bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 6 places which make this an excellent betting proposition.

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Horses that won last time have an excellent record with 5 wins from 30 attempts and a profit of 32 points at BSP. The remainder have won just 3 from 132 attempts and recorded a loss of 36 points.

All the winners have been in the weight range 7st 12lbs to 8st4lbs. The remainder have a record of 0 wins from 69 attempts.

It is best to stick with those horses at the top of the markets. Those horses with forecast odds of less than 9/1 have won 4 times from 15 runs with a profit of 24 points.

Horses should ideally have a reasonable rest. Those that last ran less than 44 days ago have won just once from 59 attempts.

4-year-old horses have the best record with 5 wins from 47 attempts and a profit of 29 points.

 

This leaves 2 horses. I would suggest backing these each way.

AL MUBHIR 9/2 – 5 places WH

WANEES 9/1 – 6 places WH

 

Al Mubhir is trained by William Haggas who has won this race 4 times before.

 

[Zilzalian]

3:00 Donc- The Cammidge Trophy is sparking my interest simply because of the ground, Personally i think super fit is the most important criteria this time of year in ground like this and 40/1 looks far too big a price to pass on Spirit of Light who has been running at G3 level in Dubai this winter is not going to lack fitness, okay we don't know how it will handle the ground but we do know it stays further so it might just get away with it over this 6F. The key here is the 40/1 (1/5th 4 places bet365) on offer as i write. I have had a couple of tenners on this animal and will reevaluate on the day as to whether a few more is worth a play.

[kensland]

Lincoln. 

Bopedro     20/1       unpl  /        Empirestateofmind     7th    16/1     both ew. 

Good luck all. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by kensland

[Tedthewolf]

2pts  e/w 2,25 DONCASTER- TITIAN 16/1 6places  

4pts invested

P/L 27.12

Edited March 31, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[Tedthewolf]

3,35 Donny- 0.5 e.w SAFE VOYAGE 33/1 6places

P/L + 26.12pts

[kensland]

Lincoln. 

Migration    14/1         1st    /      Jimi Hendrix    14/1      unpl.   both ew. 

 

Patent 

3.35. Don. Jimi Hendrix        14/1   unpl

4.00. S/Cloud. Angel Bleu      SP      unpl

4.45. Don. Seahouses          8/1        unpl

 

Good luck all. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Randwick Australia

Doncaster mile

 

 

6.35 am

Protagonist

Each way

Four places 

Willie Haggas has got his runner in here off a featherweight.

Holds an outsider's chance carrying just 50 kilos.

Two other familiar faces in duke de sessa trained in Australia for Dermot weld and my Oberon the former Haggas inmate.

 

[pa4410]

Doncaster

2.25 - Arthurs Realm    10/1

3.00 - Vadream    11/1

3.25 - Atrium    10/1

5.20 Glory and Honour    15/2 

Uttoxeter

2.10 - Atlantic Dancer 4/1

3.55 - Blackjack Magic 7/2

4.30 Last Quarter  3/1

5.05 - Turning Gold  9/1

[black rabbit]

Baltimore                            2 25  Dn/           1/20th of a pt win     9/1

Toimy Boy                           4 10  Dn/           1/40th of a pt win     33/1

Atrium                                 3 35 Dn/            1/40th of a pt win     15/1

 

 

 

 

P/L      + 160.10 pts

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by black rabbit

[Zilzalian]

On 3/31/2023 at 11:02 AM, Zilzalian said:

3:00 Donc- The Cammidge Trophy is sparking my interest simply because of the ground, Personally i think super fit is the most important criteria this time of year in ground like this and 40/1 looks far too big a price to pass on Spirit of Light who has been running at G3 level in Dubai this winter is not going to lack fitness, okay we don't know how it will handle the ground but we do know it stays further so it might just get away with it over this 6F. The key here is the 40/1 (1/5th 4 places bet365) on offer as i write. I have had a couple of tenners on this animal and will reevaluate on the day as to whether a few more is worth a play.

Ah well thats racing you do all you can and they end up a non runner, I am one of those that think i would rather them run and lose than not know if i was right or not.

[The Equaliser]

L15

2.40 Km Brains 11/2

4.25 Km Cuban Breeze 5/1

4.30 Uttx Last Quarter 5/1

5.00 Km Simply Sondheim 8/1

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts = poss ret 787.30

Back soon with singles bets

 

[Tedthewolf]

Lincoln

1pt e/w MONTASSIB 12/1 6places bog

1pt e/w EMPIRESTATE OF MIND 14/1 6places bog

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

L15

2.40 Km Brains 11/2

4.25 Km Cuban Breeze 5/1

4.30 Uttx Last Quarter 5/1

5.00 Km Simply Sondheim 8/1

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts = poss ret 787.30

Back soon with singles bets

 

They always seem to do security or windows updates at the most inconvenient times,

3.50 Km Fix You 2 pts win at 4.1, saver 0.50 win on Trilby at 4/1

3.55 Uttx  Real Stone 1.50 win at 7.2, saver 1.0 win on Lord of Kerak at 2.94

4.25 Km Dora Penny 1 pt win at 7.4, Cuban Breeze 1 pt win at 6.8

4.30 Uttx Gold Emery 2 pts win at 4.2, saver 0.50 win on Last Quarter 6/1

5.00 Km Simply Sondheim 1 pt win at 12 and Bizzare Law 1 pt win at 9

5.05 Utxx On We GO 1.50 win at 11 and a saver bet of 1 pt on Had To Be Hugo at 3.65

Total stakes = 17.00

[kensland]

Couple of Patents for interest.

Chelmsford. 

8.00. Pending Appeal      9/2    3rd

8.30. What Will Be            6/1    1st 

7.30. Alafdhal                   9/1    unpl

stk 3.50        rtn 285.50

 

 

 

 

 

6.30. One for the Frog     3/1    unpl

6.00. Boasty                   2/1      1st 

7.00. Alzahir                   15/2      unpl

stk 3.50.       rtn 94.50.

Good luck all. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

They always seem to do security or windows updates at the most inconvenient times,

3.50 Km Fix You 2 pts win at 4.1, saver 0.50 win on Trilby at 4/1

3.55 Uttx  Real Stone 1.50 win at 7.2, saver 1.0 win on Lord of Kerak at 2.94

4.25 Km Dora Penny 1 pt win at 7.4, Cuban Breeze 1 pt win at 6.8

4.30 Uttx Gold Emery 2 pts win at 4.2, saver 0.50 win on Last Quarter 6/1

5.00 Km Simply Sondheim 1 pt win at 12 and Bizzare Law 1 pt win at 9

5.05 Utxx On We GO 1.50 win at 11 and a saver bet of 1 pt on Had To Be Hugo at 3.65

Total stakes = 17.00

RESULTS UPDATE

Just two winners and one in the L15 ( I love the treble payout on a single winner with Betfred) which gave a return of 24.09 = +7.09 on the day This makes my YTD -42.73.  The problem I had at Kempton was that I had both Buick and Murphy against each other.  Very difficult.  Murphy had three and Buick two.  Luckily I had one of each. I missed Billy Loughnane's first winner so I didn't pursue his other rides.  I'm glad I steered clear of Doncaster.  Good luck to those who had a winner or two.

[fd1972uk]

Well that was pretty mince, Hartwell Duke and Simply Sondheim were only winners and had 2 moneybacks, bookies mist have had a great day today, some really big winners.