2023 Grand National (Aintree April 15th)

[The Brigadier]

This year’s Grand National is three weeks away and I thought it would be worthwhile to have an early look at the race. Obviously we’ve no idea what the ground will be although nowadays with the welfare of the horse very much in mind it’s very unlikely to ride too fast unlike when Mr Frisk was breaking the course record back in 1990 on firm ground would you believe. Here’s a synopsis on each of the 57 horses remaining in the contest although obviously only 40 can actually run. 

 

 

 

ANY SECOND NOW

Has been placed in the last two renewals, 3rd in 2021 and runner up last year to Noble Yeats. Prepped, like last year, by winning the Webster Cup at Navan over 2m 4F in March. A pound higher than last year so is 18lb better off for 2 1/4L with last year’s winner Noble Yeats. Carries a big weight but looks sure to be thereabouts for JP McManus.

T M Walsh 11-12

 

 

NOBLE YEATS

Ran out a 50/1 winner of this race last year. Has taken a further step forward since over park fences winning at Wexford and here in the Many Clouds Chase. Not disgraced when 4th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup beaten 15L by Galopin Des Champs last time. Plenty going for him in in his attempt to back up last season’s win although is now 19lb higher in the weights.

Emmet Mullins 11-11

 

GALVIN

Touch of class about him who has some decent wins on his CV. Took well to the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham last time when getting the worst of the battle with stable mate Delta Work going down by 2 1/2L. Extra 6F to travel here but appeals as an out and out stayer.

Gordon Elliott 11-11

 

ROYALE PAGAILLE

Rich Ricci’s mud lover has plenty of ability and was last seen when running 6th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Yet to race beyond 3m 2f although looks likely to stay further. Key to him is the ground, he must have it as soft as possible and could only really be fancied if we have a soft ground Grand National.

Venetia Williams 11-8

 

ENVOI ALLEN

Has bounced back to form this season winning the Ladbrokes Champion Chase in November and following a poor run in the King George VI Chase the Ryanair at the Cheltenham Festival. Escapes a penalty for that latest win which was gained over 2m 4 1/2f and has his stamina to prove stepping up a mile and a quarter.

Henry De Bromhead 11-8

 

FURY ROAD

Placed in two grade one chases in Ireland this season prior to a credible 6th in the Ryanair under Davy Russell. Has yet to race beyond three miles and is another who has stamina to prove. One of several Gigginstown Stud entries here and has a touch of class about him.

Gordon Elliott 11-6

 

THE BIG DOG

Irish raider who took his form up a notch when winning the Munster National at Limerick and Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan at the backend of last year. Was still in there battling when falling two out in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival won by Galopin Des Champs and with his handicap mark unmoved is an interesting outsider.

Peter Fahey 11-5

 

CAPODANNO

Lightly raced over fences having only raced six times. Was a decent novice chaser last season winning the big grade one 3M novice chase at the Punchestown Festival in April. Only seen the once since when 3rd of 4 in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park in February and untried beyond three miles. One of six runners in race owned by legendary owner/punter J P McManus.

W P Mullins 11-5

 

DELTA WORK

Former smart chaser who mostly plies his trade in the Cross Country races at Cheltenham nowadays. Won the last two renewals of the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival over 3M 6F. Was third in this race last season ( beaten 22L by Noble Yeats) and is a pound lower now so twenty pounds better off with the winner. Versatile and can play a hand in the finish.

Gordon Elliott 11-4

 

SAM BROWN

Ran out a 15L winner of a handicap chase at the meeting last year over the Mildmay fences but yet to sparkle this season including when reverting to hurdles last time at Uttoxeter. Needs soft ground to be seen at his best and stamina to prove (though does shape like he will stay long distances.)

Anthony Honeyball 11-4

 

LIFETIME AMBITION

Smart second season chaser who has yet to race beyond three miles. Was 4th in the Grand Sefton last November over these fences and not totally disgraced in four starts since including when reverting to hurdles at Thurles last time when 3rd of 5 to Summerville Boy.

Mrs Jessie Harrington 11-3

 

 

CAREFULLY SELECTED

Smart novice chaser back in season 2019/2020 and following a lengthy absence of over a thousand days bounced back with a win in the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park in January off of a mark of 147. Slightly disappointing when only 4th in the Bobbyjo Chase a month at Fairyhouse. Has stamina to prove.

W P Mullins 11-1

 

COKO BEACH

50/1 chance when 8th (beaten 66L) in last year’s renewal. Jumped well when winning Punchestown’s Gran National Trial in February by 5 1/2L but has been re-assessed and will have to race off of a 3lb higher mark than last year. Bidding to become the fourth grey to win this famous race and first since Neptune Collonges won in 2012.

Gordon Elliott 11-0

 

LONGHOUSE POET

A winner over hurdles at Limerick and fences at Down Royal this season. Ran in last year’s race finishing 6th having disputed the lead two from home eventually coming home some 34L behind the winner Noble Yeats. Trainer won this race back in 2006 with Numbertenvalverde.

Martin Brassil 11-0

 

GAILLARD DU MESNIL

A possibly fortunate winner of the 3M 6F NH Chase at Cheltenham in March with Mahler Mission falling two out when in command. Goes unpenalised for that win but did have a hard race with his trainer stating afterwards that they would have get him home and see how he comes out of that race. If allowed to run would be a serious player.

W P Mullins 11-0

 

DARASSO

Another J P McManus owned contender. Has mixed chasing with hurdling this season winning over the bigger obstacles at Thurles last December. Yet to race beyond three miles so has a definite question mark over his ability to stay this far and his owner appears to have better claims with others here.

Joseph O’Brien 10-13

 

HAPPYGOLUCKY

Has won three of his eight career starts over fences with his biggest win coming at this meeting two years ago over the regulation fences in the Betway Handicap Chase. Wasn’t seen again for 595 days and has plenty to prove now following two disappointing efforts in valuable handicaps at Cheltenham. Yet to run beyond 3M 1F and yet another with stamina to prove for trainer who won this race with Mr Frisk way back in 1990.

Kim Bailey 10-11

 

LE MILOS

Appears to have improved for a stable switch to Dan Skelton. Winning at Bangor and the valuable Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. Traded at 1.01 when coasting home at Kelso in the listed Premier Chase over just short of 3M only to be caught on the run in by Empire Steel. Stamina could be an issue if the way he stopped there is anything to go by.

Dan Skelton 10-11

 

THE SHUNTER

Ten year old who mixes fences and hurdles and has definite stamina doubts having never run beyond 3M. Owned by J P McManus and ran third at Kelso last time behind Le Milos. Has a bit to prove and his best days may be behind him nowadays. Owner has more credible candidates.

Emmet Mullins 10-11

 

QUICK WAVE

Stays very well and arrives in good form having won two of his last three starts latterly over 3M 4F in Haydock’s Grand National Trail Handicap Chase by 3/4L from Snow Leopardess. Ten years old now but will be staying on when most have called enough. Suited by soft conditions so any rain will suit. Trainer took this with 100/1 shot Mon Mome in 2009.

Venetia Williams 10-11

 

 

ESCARIA TEN

Went off 25/1 for race last season only to weaken quickly two from home eventually finishing 9th beaten some 75L. Shown little since including when pulling up in Plate Handicap at Cheltenham Festival in March. Hard to fancy much especially the way he weakened last year.

Gordon Elliott 10-10

 

THE BIG BREAKAWAY

Has run well on his first two starts this season especially when a 1 1/4L runner up in the Coral Welsh National last December. Trip looks likely to suit so could run well at a price although was very disappointing last time out pulling up in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Joe Tizzard 10-10

 

 

CAPE GENTLEMAN

Lightly raced Irish chaser who’s only run the eight times over fences. Joined current trainer from Emmet Mullins in December 2022 and only run the twice since when not showing that much in handicap hurdle and conditions chase. Yet to race beyond three miles and unlikely to be troubling the judge.

John Joseph Hanlon 10-8

 

 

ROI MAGE

Eleven year old Irish chaser who’s won 9 of his 51 career starts. Came back to form at Down Royal last time when 1 1/4L runner up to Longhouse Poet. Appears to stay well but an outsider who at his advancing age is hard to fancy to play a part in the finish.

Patrick Griffin 10-8

 

DIOL KER

Owned by Gigginstown Stud this 9 year old Irish chaser should stay well. Best recent effort came when runner up in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, only going down by the shortest of heads. Soundly beaten since in the Punchestown Grand National Trial but will be staying on when others have cried enough.

Noel Meade 10-8

 

A WAVE OF THE SEA

Yet to race beyond three miles and stamina could be big issue here. More hit than miss this season and was last seen when a 50/1 shot and pulling up at Cheltenham in the two mile Grand Annual. Impossible to fancy so look elsewhere for the winner.

Joseph O’Brien 10-6

 

MINELLA TRUMP

Prolific winner in Northern chases winning 8 of his 12 starts over the larger obstacles at up to three miles. Not been seen since last June and has quite an absence to overcome. At the right end of the weights mind and will love good Spring ground. Has beaten some decent chasers in his run of wins and is trained by Red Rum’s trainer Ginger McCain’s son Donald who took this himself with Ballabriggs in 2011.

Donald McCain 10-6

 

VANILLIER

A second season novice who’s kept good company this season and looked back to his very best when chasing home the 12lb superior Kemboy in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February giving that one 8lb. The handicapper appears to have ignored that run and in his best form holds decent each way claims.

Gavin Cromwell 10-6

 

VELVET ELVIS

Relatively lightly raced over fences having taken his form to a new level on his last two starts, winning over 3M at Fairyhouse and running last year’s runner up Any Second Now to 7L at Navan recently. Hard to believe he can turn the tables with that one mind but should stay ok (6th in last season’s Irish National).

Thomas Gibney 10-6

 

AIN’T THAT A SHAME

Yet to race beyond three miles in his ten race career though appears to stay that trip well as was runner up in the Munster National at Limerick last October. Dropped in trip when running out a comfortable winner over 2M 4F at Gowran Park recently and arrives here in fine form. Only lightly raced and may have further improvement to come for trainer who won race in 2021.

Henry De Bromhead 10-5

 

CORACH RAMBLER

Current favourite following his winning defence of the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Unpenalised here so is 10lb ahead of his handicap mark and if staying looks sure to be thereabouts. Ran 4th beaten 19L in last season’s Classic Chase over 3m 5F which is the furthest he’s tried. A major player for his Scottish handler who took this in 2017 with One For Arthur.

Lucinda Russell 10-5

 

ENJOY D’ALLEN

Another J P McManus owned, Irish trained runner. Only made it as far as the first when unseating his rider in last year’s race when a 20/1 chance. Shown precious little in three chases and two hurdle contests since and is hard to fancy that much.

CIaran Murphy 10-5

 

MR INCREDIBLE

A lightly raced seven year old who will be having only his tenth career start if facing the starter. Placed in two valuable handicap chases this season including when third in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time. This longer trip may suit though is a very quirky type who if taking to the unique fences could outrun his big odds.

W P Mullins 10-4

 

CLOUDY GLEN

Races in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings who’s won this prestigious contest a record three times. Winner of the 2021 Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury but lightly raced since and hard to fancy on his latest effort when pulling up in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham won by Corach Rambler.

Venetia Williams 10-4

 

GIN ON LIME

One of five entries for Henry De Bromhead who won the 2021 National with Minella Times. A decent novice chaser last season winning five times. Yet to really cut any ice this season in three outings and has stamina to prove (yet to race over further than three miles)

Henry De Bromhead 10-4

 

MISTER COFFEY

His esteemed trainer has yet to win a National of any sorts but has each way claims here with his 8 year old who was a good second in handicap at Uttoxeter in February over 3M. Wasn’t disgraced when third in NH Chase at Cheltenham over 6F further and should stay this marathon trip very well.

Nicky Henderson 10-4

 

BATTLEOVERDOYEN

A winner of 5 of his 27 starts over fences but it’s been a while since he last won (July 2021 and 15 runs). No evidence that he will stay this far and it’s easy to overlook this rank outsider.

Gordon Elliott 10-4

 

HILL SIXTEEN

Trained in Scotland. Last seen when running seventh over these fences to rival Ashtown Lad back in December beaten 14L. Had run better in same race the previous year when going down by a nose and with that track experience is capable of running alright if seeing out the longer trip.

Sandy Thomson 10-2

 

GABBY CROSS

Another of the five Henry De Bromhead trained runners this one owned by R S Brookhouse. A winner at the Galway Festival last July he’s kept valuable handicap company this season with no success. Yet to race beyond three miles so has to prove his stamina here.

Henry De Bromhead 10-2

 

RECITE A PRAYER

Has experience of these unique fences when running twelfth in the Becher Chase here in December beaten a long way at 20/1 also beaten far in the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and despite connections this eight year old is impossible to fancy.

W P Mullins 10-1

 

EVA’S OSKAR

An out and out stayer who won at Cheltenham last December over 3 1/4M. Ran a credible 20L 4th in Eider Chase last time over 4M 1 1/2 F. Trained in Wales and a big outsider here though will be plugging on when others have had enough.

Tim Vaughan 10-1

 

OUR POWER

6lb well in here having no penalty for his latest win which came at Kempton in February. A winner of 4 of his 8 chases and is a progressive 8 year old in good hands who if getting a run could be a very lively outsider although another who has his stamina to prove (yet to race beyond 3M).

Sam Thomas 10-0

 

DUNBOYNE

Another of the Elliott battalion who steps up to a marathon trip for the first time here. Arrives in decent enough form having been placed in valuable 3M 1F handicaps at Gowran Park and Cheltenham. Best form on soft ground so any rain would be a big help. Very unlikely to give Elliott his third National win

Gordon Elliott 10-0

 

FRANCKY DU BERLAIS

6 wins from 26 starts over fences for this ten year old trained in Wales. Last won at Uttoxeter a year ago. Not shown much this season and refused last in Cheltenham’s Cross Country race at the Festival when a well beaten off third. Hard to fancy this long shot.

Peter Bowen 10-0

 

FORTESCUE

A winner of 6 of his 18 chases and appears to stay this trip. Best run this year when 4th in Becher Chase to Ashtown Lad last December. Only 28/1 last year in this race when unseating his rider four from home when looking well beaten. A long shot who is hard to fancy.

Henry Daly 9-13

 

BACK ON THE LASH

Has been running predominately over the Cheltenham Cross Country fences for the past two years winning twice in handicap company over 3M 6F. Pulled up in the latest renewal of that race in March where his trainer stated his horse hated the soft ground. Hard to fancy and needs the rain to stay away.

Martin Keighley 9-13

 

DEFI BLEU

Another of the Gordon Elliott/ Gigginstown battalion who’s best ever runs have come over the furthest distances he’s run over when runner up in the Cork Grand National last November and third in the Punchestown Grand National Trial in February. Todays trip could well suit and one of the better big outsiders if making the cut.

Gordon Elliott 9-12

 

MILAN NATIVE

You have to go back eleven starts and 30 months to find the ten year olds last success. Won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival in 2020 and well treated here on that run but looks a former shade of that horse nowadays and a no hoper.

Gordon Elliott 9-10

 

PUNITIVE

Won the 3M 5F Porterstown Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse last December looking a true stayer although has run moderately in two starts since, pulling up at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir when a 40/1 chance. May well stay but Gordon Elliot has others with much better chances than this 9 year old.

Gordon Elliott 9-10

 

GEVREY

Did well at Cheltenham last time when finishing fourth at 125/1 beaten only 5 1/4L in the Plate Handicap Chase over 2 1/2M. Has raced predominately at that intermediate trip throughout his career and the massive step up to 4M 2 1/2F here is not certain to suit this big outsider.

Gordon Elliott 9-10

 

BORN BY THE SEA

Just 2 wins from 19 starts over fences in his career and this Irish trained 9 year old also has stamina to prove. Soundly beaten all four starts this season and impossible to give any chance too.

Paul Gilligan 9-10

 

FAKIERA

Lightly raced Irish chaser who’s yet to win over fences in ten starts. Runner up over 3m 5F in Porterstown Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse last December was his best run this season. 50/1 chance when pulling up in NH Chase at Cheltenham Festivalon latest start. Unlikely to break his maiden over fences here.

Gordon Elliott 9-8

 

MORTAL

Last won over fences back in August 2020 and has gone 17 races since visiting the winners enclosure. Eleven year old now and unlikely to make the final field.

Gordon Elliott 9-8

 

CAPTAIN KANGAROO

Winner of the Cork Grand National last November but this eight year old Irish chaser has lost his form completely since and pulled up in the Midlands Grand National in March. Unseated at 9th on only taste of these unique fences in the Becher Chase last November and is unlikely to make the final field.

W P Mullins 9-8

 

DARRENS HOPE

Irish mare who won a grade two chase at Punchestown last November beating Minella Crooner at 20/1. That was over 2M 6F and has yet to try distances beyond 3M so stamina could be an issue here. Looking to become the first mare since Nickel Coin in 1951 to win the Grand National though is highly unlikely.

Robert Murphy 9-8

 

CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK

Ten year old gelding who has won 5 of his 20 starts over fences and stays very well. Was runner up in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh when last seen in February, a race he won the previous year. No doubt he stays well but unlikely to get into the final field.

Fergal O’Brien 9-5

 

SECRET REPRIEVE

Former dual winner of the Welsh Grand National. Appears to have lost his form though and was last seen pulling up in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March. A doughty stayer trained in Wales who’s best on very soft ground although unlikely to make the final field.

Evan Williams 9-5

 

FANTASTIKAS

It’s been a while since he’s shown any real form and although he’s very well handicapped over park fences is likely to be way out of the handicap proper if making the final field which looks slim. Very hard to fancy and a big outsider.

Nigel Twiston Davies 9-5

 

 

Summary:-

 

Corach Rambler can race off of the same mark that he won the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham and is the right favourite as he is 10lb well in here although he does still have to prove his stamina (ran 4th beaten 20L in the 3M 5F Classic Chase last season which is the furthest he’s ever run over). Placed in the last two Nationals Any Second Now looks sure to be thereabouts although will have to shoulder top weight in the absence of Hewick. Last year’s winner Noble Yeats ran well in the Gold Cup and is another possible although he is some 19lb higher this year and I would prefer the Cheltenham Cross Country winner Delta Work who ran third last year beaten 22L and is now 20lb better off with Noble Yeats. Willie Mullins’ second season novice Gaillard Du Mesnil had a tough race in winning the NH Chase at Cheltenham possibly fortuitously and has yet to be confirmed a definite runner.

My shortlist comprises of the aforementioned Delta Work, Vanillier who ran well behind Kemboy in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time and looks well treated and The Big Dog. The latter is a very interesting runner trained in Ireland by Peter Fahey. He’s looked an improved performer this season winning valuable staying chases at Limerick and Navan prior to a credible third in the Welsh Grand National. He was actually mixing it with the Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup last time when falling two out when bang in contention. He surely wouldn’t have troubled the winner that day but could easily have hit the frame which would of been a hell of a effort. His trainer has reported since that he’s fine after the fall   https://www.racingfactors.com/news/article/the-big-dog-impresses-fahey-with-racecourse-school___01gty9caxv66r4wrg29sf0g684 and they will doing extensive schooling from now on in. To be fair he’s usually a sound jumper and had never fallen before in his career under rules. His best form appears to be on soft ground so the more juice in the ground the better. An out and out stayer who’s in top form this season he’s worth backing now each way with the firms who are paying five places at the general 25/1.

 

THE BIG DOG 1 point each way @ 25/1 William Hill, Betfred, bet365 1/5th 12345

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

I have a problem 9 of them horses I back regular ?

[The Brigadier]

Just now, LEE-GRAYS said:

I have a problem 9 of them horses I back regular ?

Ha ha - it's that type of race isn't it ?

[calva decoy]

Cracking write up ?

Ive already backed ANY SECOND NOW at 16/1 sky eway 

LE MILOS 25/1 eway with bet365 

I'll do a total of 4 with a 33-50/1 shot & a 66-100/1 shot on the day probably with bet365 if they do their offer but small stakes fun bets .

[The Brigadier]

42 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Cracking write up ?

Ive already backed ANY SECOND NOW at 16/1 sky eway 

LE MILOS 25/1 eway with bet365 

I'll do a total of 4 with a 33-50/1 shot & a 66-100/1 shot on the day probably with bet365 if they do their offer but small stakes fun bets .

Thanks @calva decoy much appreciated. Good luck with your picks.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

I have a problem 9 of them horses I back regular

Some bookies might be offering 9 places !

[Zilzalian]

Pity its still got to win ? Lay off, C/O or let it ride?

[The Brigadier]

24 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Pity its still got to win ? Lay off, C/O or let it ride?

Let. It. Ride ?

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Pity its still got to win ? Lay off, C/O or let it ride?

You know there's only 1 answer !

[Gary66]

Great write up brigadier, mr incredible caught my eye as a dour stayer on his Warwick run and will probably get my bet . Best of luck gaz

[The Brigadier]

9 hours ago, Gary66 said:

Great write up brigadier, mr incredible caught my eye as a dour stayer on his Warwick run and will probably get my bet . Best of luck gaz

Thanks @Gary66 much appreciated. Mr Incredible without doubt has the raw ability to play a big part in the race he's just a bit quirky. Heard a pre Cheltenham interview with Patrick Mullins where he said as much. Good luck ?

[FleetFanatic]

Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.

The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:

EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23
There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be

 

	TOTAL
MAXIMUM POSSIBLE	278
Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell	278
Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley	266
Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen	266
Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE	264
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams	264
Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE	256
Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan	254
Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE	254
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE	251
Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE	249
Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE	244
Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas	244
The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard	244
Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE	242
Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain	241
Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE	241
Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson	236
Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton	236
Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE	234
Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE	234
Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE	232
Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE	231
Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE	231
Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE	231
Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE	231
Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball	230
Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE	229
Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE	228
Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson	226
A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE	224
Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE	223
Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly	222
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE	219
Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE	212
Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE	209
Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE	203
Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE	203
The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE	200
Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE	187
Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE	185

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by FleetFanatic
Updating after 5 day declarations

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, FleetFanatic said:

Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.

The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:
 

I'll be doing my own trens analysis nearer the day, be interesting to see if we arrive at similar conclusions

[richard-westwood]

My current top 5 rated ....I don't think will change much now 

Corach rambler 9.2 6/1 

Le milos 8.9   16/1 

Delta work   8.3  

Coko beach   8.4 

Longhouse poet 8.2 

 

[FleetFanatic]

Updated mine - there's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be...

[FleetFanatic]

No sign of a half stakes back with bet365 this year (yet) - it launched on the thursday last year...

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, FleetFanatic said:

No sign of a half stakes back with bet365 this year (yet) - it launched on the thursday last year...

I've been waiting with anticipation, perhaps they've dropped it like the 4/1 TV offer

[FleetFanatic]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I've been waiting with anticipation, perhaps they've dropped it like the 4/1 TV offer

Offering just 6 places with multiple horses shorter than 10s & they scrap the offer for this year?

I'll bet elsewhere then.

 

[MCLARKE]

Yep, I would have expected better but they do offer some other excellent offers, especially the 25% extra winnings boost and the super boosts.

[calva decoy]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, I would have expected better but they do offer some other excellent offers, especially the 25% extra winnings boost and the super boosts.

Ah , so no 50% offer this year , probably why I got a £5 bet credits instead yesterday .

Edited April 14, 2023 by calva decoy

[calva decoy]

On 3/24/2023 at 1:14 PM, calva decoy said:

Cracking write up ?

Ive already backed ANY SECOND NOW at 16/1 sky eway 

LE MILOS 25/1 eway with bet365 

I'll do a total of 4 with a 33-50/1 shot & a 66-100/1 shot on the day probably with bet365 if they do their offer but small stakes fun bets .

Prices usually drop like a stone on the day so 3 more early birds .

CORACH RAMBLER 8/1 win ( £5 free bet credits )  1st 

THE BIG BREAKFAST 33/1 eway bet365 ( 6 ) fell at 2nd 

HILL SIXTEEN 100/1 eway bet365 ( 6 ) fell at 1st 

£40 for nothing can't complain , that was carnage seemed the worse National for fallers for a long time .

Edited April 15, 2023 by calva decoy

[MCLARKE]

With 40 runners it is arguably the most difficult race to find the winner of. We should sympathise with those punters betting in 1929, there were 66 runners that year!

The race is run over 4 miles, 2 furlongs and 74 yards. There are 30 fences to navigate. It is open to horses aged 7 years or older and the off time is 17.15.

40 go to post and some bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 7 places which make this a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Surprisingly for such a seemingly competitive race those horses at the top of the market perform very well. 5 of the last 8 winners have been in the top 4 in the forecast betting. They have generated a level stakes profit of 31 points at SP. From the remaining 278 runners there have been just 3 winners and a loss of 167 points.

Younger horses perform best. Those aged 7 or 8 have won 5 from 77 attempts with a profit of 38 points.

Horses should be relatively fresh. Those that last ran between 23 and 34 days have won 6 times from 108 attempts with a profit of 47 points.

The horse should have a good winning record. Those that have won at least 3 times in their last 10 runs have a record of 5 wins from 89 runs with a profit of 19 points.

Those horses that did not finish in the first 9 last time out have not won any races from 85 attempts.

 

3 horses fit these criteria.

 

NOBLE YEATS 9/1

GAILLARD DU MESNIL 14/1

LE MILOS 16/1

 

I suggest backing these each with bookmakers paying 6 places.

 

Noble Yeats won this last year.

[yossa6133]

What do we think the ground is going to be? Was looking a slog today, but no more rain forecast.

 

I've gone for Our Power (around 30/1 on the exchanges). To me he looks the best of those carrying bottom weight. Looks like he stays all day and pretty unexposed.

[Striker]

Decent outsider for me is: Velvet Elvis

Ran well in last years Irish National and comes here off two good runs

 

Each Way @ 40-1 [Bet 365]..six places

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

What do we think the ground is going to be? Was looking a slog today, but no more rain forecast.

 

I've gone for Our Power (around 30/1 on the exchanges). To me he looks the best of those carrying bottom weight. Looks like he stays all day and pretty unexposed.

I was a bit shocked to see the amount of rain considering the clerk of the course put 5mm on in last night , do these people no look at weather forecasts & agree , it looked hard work with front runners doing well .

[FleetFanatic]

Cross referencing the ratings with what I like the look off, plus the fact I am reducing the number of bets as bet365 are tightwads.

Corach Rambler
Fury Road
Longhouse Poet
Minella Trump
Our Power
Velvet Elvis

There's others that have a chance but we can't cover them all.

If something else near the top of the ratings wins then 'meh'.
If something else in the ratings wins then it was rubbish to start with lol

[Zilzalian]

11 hours ago, calva decoy said:

I was a bit shocked to see the amount of rain considering the clerk of the course put 5mm on in last night , do these people no look at weather forecasts & agree , it looked hard work with front runners doing well .

I live fairly close it rained all day yesterday and is sunny at the time of writing this so i smell gluey ground by 2pm ish and predict about 10 or less finishing. You can bet the powers that be are telling the riders to make sure you dont flog your horse to death it dont look good on the tele "if you got no chance pull up"

[maxironchin]

Three for me today.

DELTA WORK 

LE MILOS

CORACH RAMBLER

All 5pt EW.

Was from a shortlist of seven. The above should like the softish ground.

[SirRavenous]

I’m torn about which other horse I want to include but the main three I’ve picked out are:

Ain’t That A Shame - 8/1 w/Boyles

The Big Dog - 12/1 w/Paddys

Our Power - 25/1 w/Paddys

All three have proven stamina over 3m+ but the last two stand out the most for me. In the case of the former, he won the 3m5f Munster National at Limerick in October and third in the Welsh National. He did fall in the Irish Gold Cup so that could be a slight concern. As for Our Power, he’s done well to win handicap chases at Ascot and Kempton but there are some question marks as to whether he will see out the trip as it’s his first jaunt beyond 3m2f. So it’s a bit risky bet hence why I’ve picked ew.

Other than that, it’s a four way split between Delta Work, Corach Rambler, Le Milos and The Big Breakaway.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I live fairly close it rained all day yesterday and is sunny at the time of writing this so i smell gluey ground by 2pm ish and predict about 10 or less finishing. You can bet the powers that be are telling the riders to make sure you dont flog your horse to death it dont look good on the tele "if you got no chance pull up"

Interesting as SPIN quote total finishers at 15.75 to 16.75. I’ll risk a modest sell at 15.75.

@MCLARKEif you’re at all inclined to agree with this thinking then blow the cobwebs of your SPIN account and have a sell of total finishers!