Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th December

[MCLARKE]

Not sure if it's me but I can't find any info on oddschecker or BET365 etc for Tuesday's cards including the Welsh National.

[calva decoy]

Unfortunately , with a free £5 bet from Sky I backed ante post SECRET REPRIEVE for the Welsh National after running well & finishing 2nd in the trial race but hasn't been entered , maybe bet365 are re doing the book .

[Alley Cat Glover]

24hr final declarations mean no racecards until later this morning otherwise all still antepost.

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Not sure if it's me but I can't find any info on oddschecker or BET365 etc for Tuesday's cards including the Welsh National.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/12/chepstow/2022-12-27/825263/

bet 365 prices on ther bog

[Tedthewolf]

2,50 Chepstow- THE TWO AMIGOS is on a eally nice weight  at present and looks  sure to run a very big race   33/1  1/4  4 places BOG with Bet365 will do for me.

1pt e/w Running Total Profit  + 1.08

WON  43.25PTS  Returm

Edited December 27, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[Tedthewolf]

Prices up now on odds checker.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2022-12-27-chepstow/14:50/winner

[kensland]

Double. 

12.25. Weth. Herewegohoney     13/8

12.45.  Kemp.  Charles St.              5/1

singles &  double. 

Good luck all. 

[kensland]

 

Double. 

2. 50. Chep.  Musical Slave    12/1

3.09.  Kemp.  Smarty Wild       11/1

singles & double ew. 

Good luck all. 

[black rabbit]

Regina Dracones    2 50 Chep/            £25 ew    40/1  { 1/20th of a pt }

Cyclop                    2  50 Chep/            £25 ew   50/1   { 1/20th of a pt }

Funambule Sivola   2 30 Kem/             1/20th    of a pt  win      12/1

Golden Whisky        1 05 Chp/             1/20th    of a  pt win       16/1

Early Doors              3 00 Lep/              £ 25 ew   40/1     { 1/20th of a pt }

 

 

 

P/L    + 158.40 pts          

Edited December 27, 2022 by black rabbit

[jonjo]

Good racing again tomorrow.

In the 1.10 Leopardstown I cant see past Chacun Pour Soir, coming up to his 11th birthday and still in top form. His form on home ground is exceptional, only ever beaten twice in Ireland and they were defeats to A Plus Tard and Energuneme, that defeat to A Plus Tard is his only loss in five races at this course. Happy to get 2.62, the young pretenders will have to be at their best to threaten him.....................jumped poorly and was well beaten ?

Kempton card is a good one again, in the 1.55 Get A Tonic is the choice, she carries top weight here but there's good reason for that. She finished second in a Grade 3 Class 1 last time out and has been raised just 4lbs for that, back against her own sex and in an easier race tomorrow gets her the vote. Trading around the 2.92 mark........................poor choice, giving weight told a long way out?

In the Juvenile Hurdle at 2.15 in Wetherby, Rebecca Menzies runner Star In Front looks too big a price at 13.0, the gelding ran some decent races in France with quite a few future winners coming from the races, he's a stable switcher so lets hope the change of scenery does the trick here. Win and place bet....................................................................................................WON..........brilliant winner from the front and 13 was a lovely price to get, won quite comfortably??

2.45 at Wetherby. Cheddleton is the choice in this, at 5.6, finished second here last year and has a good pull in the weights with last years victor and is roughly the same price (at the moment) Cheddleton had a seasonal opener in a hurdle race just getting caught for second place in the final few strides. Two lbs lower than last year and looks to have a great chance win and place. No Risk De Flos the big danger....................Placed at 1.79 ?

Back to Ireland in the 3.49 where Largy Hill will go off quite short, there was lots of money for this one in April on his stable debut but he finshed lame and trailed in 5th, compensation awaits tomorrow, currently 5/6 at the books or 1.98 on the exchanges.  On a drift and is now 2.34 on betfair.................................................................................................................................................................................................WON easily at a very generous Bfsp of 2.52..........?

 

 

Welsh Grand National no bet but maybe The Big Dog or Quick Wave?.

 

As always, lay off bets will be placed in running.

 

Good luck everyone.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by jonjo

[kensland]

Wetherby. 

Single. 

3.20. Waspy        4/1

Double. 

2.15. Jipekaa Machin      11/4

2.45. Heartbreak Kid       11/2

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

[The Brigadier]

A bumper day’s racing with the ITV cameras coming from Kempton for five races and Chepstow for four with the Coral Welsh Grand National the feature race at 2.50. The ground is likely to ride pretty soft at Kempton especially on the hurdles course whilst Chepstow are calling their ground as good to soft (good in places).

Here’s my thoughts and selections :-

 

Kempton 12.45

We kick off today’s festivities with a two mile juvenile hurdle which both Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have a good record in the race winning it three times in the last ten years each (Alan King has also taken two renewals). It’s only the latter who has a runner today mind in Forward Flight but he would need to improve plenty on his hurdles debut to feature here. Ex George Boughey flat performer Charles Street ran well for his new stable when runner up at Warwick and Fergal O’Briens juvenile hurdler brings the best form to the table here. Michael Bell’s Artistic Choice has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his Catterick win whilst Paul Nicholls’ Him Malaya got beat at odds on on his hurdles debut back in October at Newton Abbot. I’ll take Charles Street to take this.

 

CHARLES STREET 1 point each way 5/1 BetVictor 1/5 123

 

 

Chepstow 1.05

A class 2 handicap chase run over 2m 3F 98 yards starts today’s ITV action from the Welsh track. The trainer to watch out for here is Venetia Williams as she has won this event six times in the last ten years. Her only representative today is Enzo D’Airy who should be thereabouts. He returned from a 653 days absence to win over course and distance three weeks ago when a seemingly unfancied 10/1 chance, keeping on gamely and pulling away with the favourite Dalamoi who had won well previously. A rise of 6lb seems reasonable and with that run behind him must go close. Last years winner Golden Whiskey is back to defend his title in first time cheek pieces off of a 2lb lower handicap mark and is not out of this. Richard Hobson’s Fugitif ran well on his seasonal re-appearance when runner up at Cheltenham and could also play a hand in the finish but for me this is all about Enzo D’Airy, Venetia William and Charlie Deutsch in a race the stable seem to do so well in.

 

ENZO D’AIRY 3 points win 10/3 bet365

 

Kempton 1.20

The Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase is a grade two contest run over two miles and has some big names on the winning roster over the last decade including Altior, Cyrname, Shishkin and last year’s winner Edwardstone. Only four line up today and with only 9lb officially between the quartet it should be a closely run thing. Boothill looked good when winning at Ascot prior to bumping into the smart Jonbon at Sandown and with no horse of that calibre in the field today looks the one to be with. Dan Skelton’s Lac De Constance maybe the one to chase him home having won here back in November in bloodless style against a brace of opponents.

 

BOOTHILL 2 points win @ 5/4 bet365

 

Chepstow 1.40

Run over the minimum trip of two miles the Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle usually produces a winner that goes on to make a mark in the game and amongst recent winners are Bristol De Mai, Allmankind and Adagio. Milton Harris’s Scriptwriter has to carry a 5lb penalty for a brace of wins this winter including last time out at Cheltenham and is a player here. The horse he beat that day Pereseus Way has won since and is 5lb better off for a 2 1/4L beating when he didn’t jump with much fluency. He can turn the tables on his rival today. Alan King always has a decent juvenile hurdler or two and his Spartan Army is no exception today. Having joined King off the flat from Joseph O’Brien he won well at Wetherby on his hurdling bow and I’ll take him to beat his ten rivals here.

 

SPARTAN ARMY 1 point each way @ 15/2 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

Kempton 1.55

Seven mares go to post for the three miles 121 yards class 2 handicap hurdle. The race has a wide open look to it with several holding good chances. Anthony Honeyball’s Coquelicot has impressed me winning at Ascot and Sandown this winter rising some 11lb and should be thereabouts. She’s the pick here although the four timer seeking I Spy A Diva has to come into the calculations along with Harry Fry’s Whitehotchillifili.

 

COQUELICOT 1 point each way 4/1 bet365 1/4 123

 

Chepstow 2.10

A bumper field of 11 assemble for this class 2 2m 7F 131 yards handicap hurdle which has been won by local Welsh trainers on six of the last ten renewals. Tim Vaughan’s Bells Of Peterboro blitzed the field last year when only seven ran coming home 22L to the good. He’s been chasing this season and is only 4lb higher than that romp last season although it has to be said this looks a much more competitive renewal. Paul Nicholls saddles a pair in Flemenstide who’s re-appearing following a 291 day absence and the more interesting Sabrina who will be ridden today, like last time, by the promising conditional jockey Freddie Gingell who currently claims 7lb. The mare looks reasonably treated and I’ll take her to score here with bottom weight Bobo Mac her biggest danger.

 

SABRINA 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Kempton 2.30

This year’s Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase has attracted only 7 runners and is run over the minimum trip of two miles. Some of the best two mile chasers have won this event over the years including the Nicky Henderson trio Sprinter Sacre (twice), Altior and last year’s winner Shishkin. This year’s warm favourite is Alan King’s stable star Edwardstone. A winner of last season’s Arkle Chase at Cheltenham he appeared to show further improvement when a comfortable winner of Sandown’s Tingle Creek Chase

three weeks ago by nine lengths from Greaneteen. The forecast rain will no doubt help and with his trainer sounding very bullish in his recent Weekender column he will be hard to beat. Dan Skelton’s Nube Negra looks his biggest threat having coasted round at odds of 1/10 at Cheltenham on his re-appearance in the Shloer Chase last month. That should put him spot on for this and if there is to be one to turn over the favourite it’s likely to be him. It’s Edwardstone for me though although at the likely price it’s a no bet race.

 

Chepstow 2.50

The feature race of the day and the track’s biggest race of their season is the Welsh Grand National run over a stamina sapping 3m 6 1/2F. Venetia Williams won it back in 2014 with Emperors Choice and saddles the likely favourite here in Quick Wave, who is officially 5lb well in for her easy Kempton victory at the beginning of the month on her seasonal re-appearance over 3m 5F. She stays well and likes softish ground and must go close. Irish raider The Big Dog was an emphatic winner of the Troytown Handicap Chase last month though did pull up in this race last year when fancied. The softer the better for Ben Clarke’s The Galloping Bear who teed up for this with a third over hurdles at Carlisle a month ago. An out and out stayer who loves the mud he should be thereabouts off of a mark that doesn’t look too severe although he may find the ground not boggy enough today. Harry Fry’s Ask Me Early is unraced beyond three miles but shapes like an out and out stayer and is another who could run well. Paul Nicholls’s Truckers Lodge was third last year and races off of a mark 9lb lower (plus an additional 7lb from conditional jockey Freddie Gingell). He’s raced in the last three editions of this contest and shouldn’t be totally dismissed from a handy mark. Local handler Rebeca Curtis runs Pats Fancy who has had a prep race for this over hurdles here at the last meeting. As always a tough handicap but I keep coming back to Venetia’s horse Quick Draw and she’s my pick each way with enhanced place terms.

 

QUICK DRAW 2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

Kempton 3.09

The days terrestrial action concludes with a three mile class 2 handicap chase. Welsh trainer Christian Williams won this last year with his Five Star Getaway and he’s back to defend his title off of the same mark and looks primed to run well. Williams also saddles Kitty’s Light who looks a well handicapped horse now and has decent form at the track. He’s one for the short list. Also on the long short list is Chris Honour’s Tile Tapper who’s lightly raced over fences and at the right end of the handicap. Venetia Williams has Fontaine Collonges here who won a decent handicap at Haydock last time out and has been raised 5lb. Top weight Remastered appeared a bit unlucky not to take the Coral Gold Cup last time as he was harried by a loose horse for a long way and even on the run-in. He only went down by half a length and has been pushed up 4lb for that effort. I’ll take him to score here with a saver on the well handicapped Kitty’s Light.

 

REMASTERED 1 point each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

KITTYS LIGHT 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

[MCLARKE]

The big handicap over the Christmas period is the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow, run the day after Boxing Day. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles, 6 furlongs and 130 yards and there are 23 fences to jump. 19 go to post and off time is 2.50.

Bindaree and Silver Birch both won this before going on to win the Aintree Grand National whilst Synchronised and Native River went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup after winning this race.  

Paddy Power and William Hill offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

BEST TO BE FIT

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

1.       It is helpful to have had a recent run. There have been 61 runners that have had a lay-off of more than 35 days and they all lost.

2.       Horses at the head of the market perform very well. Those horses with forecast odds less of 7/1 or less have a record of 4 wins from 14 runners compared to 5 wins from 160 for those at longer odds.

3.       Less exposed horses perform better than those that have run more often. Horses who have run less than 17 times have recorded 7 wins from 95 attempts compared to 2 from 79 for their more experienced opponents.

Only 2 horses match these criteria, QUICK WAVE (9/2) and THE GALLOPING BEAR (11/2). It looks justified to have these 2 at the top of the market.

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 6 places.

Further statistics that may prove relevant.

As already indicated favourites have a good record with 3 wins from 15 runners.

Irish bred horses have the best record with 7 wins from 111 runners.

Quick Wave is trained by Ventia Williams who has won this race twice before.

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Wetherby	12.25	Sadie Hill	25/1
Chepstow	2.10	Green Book	3/1
Chepstow	3.25	Dalamoi	5/2
Wolverhampton	5.00	Big Impact	4/1
Wolverhampton	8.00	Araifjan	9/2

[Gary66]

Like the look of Fortescue won a class 1 chase and finished second on the one run at Chepstow best of luck always gazza

[Budgie 65]

309 Kem remastered Tom scudamore shouting from the rooftops that remastered Win

His words whereever it runs

[richard-westwood]

Had every intention of having loads bets yesterday but got battered with norovirus .....so couldn't rate but I'll have a good go today 

Chep 250 

Big dog     8.2  6/1

Fortescue   8.0  14/1

Quick wave   7 7  

Galloping bear   7.6 

Time to get up  7.4 

Tough race ....I'll just stick with the ratings and take 5pt ew top 2... 7 places 

[richard-westwood]

105 chep 

Enzo dairy 3/1  and phoenix way 16/1  rate highly here .....phoenix ways wellbeing will have to taken on trust as lost his,way last 2 but trainer can get them ready .....I'll try 10pt win Enzo....5pt ew phoenix 

[richard-westwood]

8.00 wolv 

Kim wexler  8.0 7/2

Bethersden boy  7.7 7/2 

5pt wins both 

[Gary66]

8-0 wolves lihou class dropper who would been much closer last time awkward start and jockey dropped whip 

Best of luck always gazza

[Tedthewolf]

1.5 PT e/w 1.50 CH- TRUCKER LODGE  14/1 7places not bog -PLACED 5.70pts

0.25PT rfc 1.50 CH- Truckers lodge/The Two Amigos - LOST 

0.25 PT e/w 2.10 CH- US AND THEM 80/1 bog 3 places- LOST

0.1pt e/w lucky 15 bog bet365 = 3PTS

1.05 CH PHOENIX  WAY  14/1

2.50 CH THE TWO AMIGOS 22/1

3.00 KEM KITTY'S LIGHT 16/1

3.40 KEM LIVELY CITIZEN 20/1

7pts  invested

Running Total Loss  -5.92 PTS one winner (odds doubled ) one place 7.47pts

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[Alley Cat Glover]

Going to have to start paying more attention to you guys over the next few months, wife has gone and given me tickets for Gold Cup day at Cheltenham for Xmas. All of a sudden will be interested in Cheltenham Ante post once non runner protection comes in. Will have to follow Darren’s Hunter Chase thread closely also.

So will have to try and post as well but only likely to be weekends. Don’t do favourites so will likely be bigger odds each way, sometimes get lucky.

Anyway sporting Lucky 15 for today E/W in some of the televised racing

Chep 1.05 Le Chameleon 16/1 4 places (Looks promising proposition)

Chep 2.50 Regina Dracones 20/1 5 places  (Harry Cobden on Irish Raider is enough for me)

Kemp 3.09 Striking A Pose 25/1 4 places (Tizzard down to handy mark hopefully)

Leop 3.00 Carefully Selected 20/1 6 places (Irish Selection, going to have to find the Irish plots for Cheltenham after all!)

[azzybear]

the imposer 11.50 

[azzybear]

postmark 12.45 

[azzybear]

blue lord 1.10

[azzybear]

time to get up 2.50 ew 

[kensland]

Chepstow. 

Single. 

12.00. Ballydisco         10/1       ew.          unpl.

Mr P Hobbs  runner,  I expect Mr Hobbs to be visiting the winners enclosure with one of his runners today, or not..

Good luck all. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

KEMP	12.45	Him Malaya	4/1
CHEP	1.05	Red Rookie	9/2
CHEP	1.40	Perseus Way	6/1
CHEP	2.10	Green Book	9/2
KEMP	3.09	Five Star Getaway	11/2

[The Equaliser]

Tons of racing today.  Spoilt for choice

1.05 Chep Enzo D'Airy 7/2

3.09 Kem Remastered 7/1

8.00 Wolv Kim Wexler 7/2

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 pts = poss return of 254.25

2.50 Chep Big Dog and Fortescue 0.50 rev Forecast pos return of 40.12 or 45.01

Singles and Savers

1.05 Chep Phoenix Way 0.50 ew at 16's

2.50 Chep Quick wave 1 pt win at 5.8

3.09 Km Fontaines Collonge 1 pt win at 8, Five Star Getaway 1 pt win at 7.4 and Kitty's Light 0.50 ew at 20/1

8.10 Wolves Bethersden Boy 1 pt win at 5.4

11 pts staked

May be we won't all win today but at least we have a feast of entertainment to enjoy

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Had a straight forecast Bethersden Boy to beat Kim Wexler 1 pt = poss return 24.49

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I sometimes forget that there are other horses in the race apart from what I consider to be the principal contenders, Angle Land reminded me of this.  Pity, as I thought that Kim Wexler would win.  Stuffed me for a good double.  I had one placed winner but all in all I lost 9.90 points on the day.  Makes my MTD -79.43 and YTD -342.87

Some more class racing tomorrow but I will have little time to look; probably just as well.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selection

Wetherby 1.00

ROYAL MOGUL 8/11

BETUK