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Last 16 Predictions > Dec 3rd - 6th


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The last 16 of the 2022 World Cup begins literally the day after the group stages draw to a close so I thought I'd get the thread up so anyone with predictions for this weekend's games can put their thoughts up early. Those fixtures are...

last16odds.jpg

Check out the odds for these last 16 matches above! Surely, we're looking at Netherlands, Argentina, France, and England steaming into the Quarter-Finals?

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The first couple of games are set to take place on Saturday and we have two fascinating matches. Netherlands versus USA is up first and the pragmatic approach of the Dutch will be a complete contrast to the blood and thunder pace and energy of the USA. This is familiar territory for the Orangemen but the same can't be said for the Stars and Stripes. I have to say that Netherlands don't look like they have enough to go all the way but their conservative tactics under Louis Van Gaal seem to be doing enough to help them navigate their way past potentially tricky opposition. Gregg Berhalter will have Christian Pulisic available which is a boost but USA don't have an in-form potent scorer like Netherlands in the form of Cody Gakpo who became the first Dutch player to score in each of his first three World Cup appearances. I think this will be an intriguing game to watch but the cautious approach by Netherlands should work well to nullify the attacking threat posed by the USA.

We then also have Argentina against Australia. On paper, it should be a walk in the park for the South American side but warnings have come already from the group stages suggesting this isn't a done deal. Argentina, of course, suffered a shock opening game loss to Saudi Arabia. Australia have shocked the world by reaching this stage ahead of Denmark. It's Lionel Messi's 1,000th career appearance so football romantics the world over will want to see him take a step closer to winning the elusive World Cup trophy that has evaded him. The Socceroos won't make it easy though. They are a combative and relentless unit who compensate for their lack of quality with aggression and heart. Argentina should progress and they are growing into this tournament but this is a tournament full of surprises. Every bet backing a favourite is a dangerous game.

Netherlands vs USA (Saturday, 3pm GMT)

Netherlands to Win @ 15/14 with VBet

Anytime Scorer: Cody Gakpo @ 10/3 with Bet365

Argentina vs Australia (Saturday, 7pm GMT)

Argentina to Win to Nil @ 7/10 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 26/25 with Unibet

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Netherlands vs USA

Louis van Gaal has been criticized during this World Cup for the somewhat boring nature of his side's victories. But the veteran coach can point to an unbeaten opening phase and a place in the last 16 as proof that they are doing something right. Now a clash with the US is their reward. The Oranje may have profited from a relatively easy group, but there have been some stand-out performances. Many pundits had Memphis Depay down as the attacking threat in the squad, but it has been Cody Gakpo who has found the net in all three games and is one of the top scorers in the competition so far. The Netherlands wants to go far in this competition, and the USA is the first step on that road.             

The US will fancy its chances after progressing from the only group with all four nations in the top 20 of FIFA's rankings. There have been some solid displays from Gregg Berhalter's men, who have proved that they can provide the steel – as well as the skill – when necessary. The big news is that Christian Pulisic should be fit to start after going off injured against Iran. The Yanks have several talented players on their national team, and we'll see whether they can continue their unbeatable run in this tournament. They have been pretty disciplined so far, and they have conceded only from the penalty kick against Wales.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

It is going to be an interesting match, and both teams have decent chances of progressing to the quarter-finals. However, we believe the Netherlands is a bit closer to victory, and they should win in regulation time.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have conceded only once so far in the competition, and they have tight defenses. Although the Netherlands has had easier opponents, we think they will continue in that style, and the game should stay under a 2.5 margin.

Netherlands to Win @ 2.00

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.65

Correct score 1:0 @ 5.70

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Argentina vs Australia

Argentina's reward for reviving their 2022 World Cup hopes is a last-16 clash with Australia in Al Rayyan. Messi and co bounced back from their shock opening 2-1 defeat to Saudi Arabia to seal 2-0 wins over Mexico and Poland to finish top of Group C, with Poland second. That response has reignited hopes of Argentina potentially making a run deep into the tournament, with Messi facing his final shot at a World Cup title after winning the 2021 Copa America. The South American defending champions looked very confident against Poland in their previous match and now want to continue in the same fashion.

Australia was also forced to recover from an opening loss after going down 4-1 to France before digging in and recording successive 1-0 victories over Tunisia and Denmark to finish second in Group D, behind the defending champions. However, the gap between the two sides is the key factor that makes Argentina strong favorites to go on and win and clinch a spot in the quarterfinals, potentially up against Spain or Brazil. Australia avoided a string of potential suspensions in their final group game, and Graham Arnold will only make small changes here. As Australia looks to frustrate Argentina, key man Ajdin Hrustic could come in as part of an altered midfield.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Australia doesn't have to lose anything here, and they will try to produce another shocking result. Although Argentina is under much bigger pressure to succeed, Leo Messi and the lads should continue their winning streak and progress to the quarterfinals.

Goals Market Prediction

Argentina has improved its defense after losing to Saudi Arabia, and Australia will be focused mostly on counter-attacks. We think La Albiceleste will control the game and keep the clean sheet. 

Argentina AH -1.5 @ 1.65

BTTS No @ 1.50

Correct score 2:0 @ 5.00

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France vs Poland

The odds favor France winning. It's noteworthy to note that both of them frequently provide low scores results. France had six of their eleven games this year in under goal, while Poland had seven. Therefore, we should concentrate on a total goal under 2.5, expecting France to win.

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France vs Poland

France started the tournament off with a big 4-1 win against Australia. Despite going a goal down in that game, France dominated the match and thoroughly deserved the 3 pts. Next up for France was supposedly their toughest game of the group stage, but Denmark didn't offer enough going forward, and France claimed a 2-1 win to secure their place in the last 16 with a game to spare. That last game came against Tunisia, in which France made a few changes to their starting lineup. The Africans needed to win and got it thanks to a solitary second-half strike, but it wasn't enough for Tunisia to progress. Les Bleus want to return to the winning track and secure a place in the quarter-finals.

Poland drew 0-0 with Mexico on matchday 1, but it could have been much better if it wasn't for Lewandowski missing a penalty. Up next for the Eastern Europeans came Saudi Arabia, and that game saw Lewandowski score his first-ever World Cup goal for Poland, who won the game 2-0. However, a 2 -0 defeat against Argentina followed in what was a poor display from Poland. Thankfully, Mexico only won 2-1 against Saudi Arabia, and Poland progressed as the second-placed team via goal difference. However, if they don’t improve things against France, Poland shouldn’t expect much from the upcoming game.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

France is a firm favorite in this encounter, and they shouldn’t have many troubles against Orly. Therefore, Les Bleus might beat their rivals by more than one goal.

Goals Market Prediction

Despite having Robert Lewandowski upfront, Poland has struggled a lot in the final third in this tournament. France should keep them away from their goal, and the defending champions’ net should stay intact. 

France AH -1 @ 1.50

BTTS No @ 1.65

Correct score 3:0 @ 7.80

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England vs Senegal

England confirmed the top spot in Group B of the World Cup on Tuesday night after blitzing past Wales 3-0 with a second-half salvo. Gareth Southgate won't have much time to celebrate England's table-topping exploits in Qatar as attention quickly shifts to Sunday's match-up against the current African champions, Senegal. The Three Lions produced two emphatic displays against Iran and Wales, winning those two contests with an aggregate scoreline of 9-2. Still, concerns remain about their rather timid and pedestrian display against the USA on matchday two. The injection of Marcus Rashford and Phil Foden bred new life and vitality into the side against Wales, and Southgate will be hoping to carry that momentum into the knockouts.

Senegal has reached the knockouts of a World Cup for only the second time in its history. When the Lions of Teranga made the quarter-finals in 2002, Aliou Cisse was the nation's captain; two decades on, the former PSG and Birmingham player is now the manager, furthering his legacy for the West African country. They came through a stern examination from Ecuador on Tuesday to maintain their stay in Qatar. Nottingham Forest and Senegal midfielder Cheikhou Kouyaté has missed training ahead of his country's World Cup last 16 clash against England on Sunday. Nevertheless, Senegal will try to stun their rivals and provide a huge surprise.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Senegal has consolidated its game after the starting defeat, but England is a much tougher opponent than Qatar and Ecuador. We believe the Three Lions will meet expectations and progress to the quarter-finals.

Goals Market Prediction

It should be an entertaining clash, and England could have some trouble with Senegal's offense. Therefore, we won't be surprised to see goals in both nets. 

England to Win @ 1.55

BTTS Yes @ 2.50

Correct score 3:1 @ 16.00

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The first last 16 game on Saturday will see France play Poland. I have said I have concerns about the middle of the park for Didier Deschamps' men but they are getting by so far. Although the team's 1-0 defeat to Tunisia in the final group stage game may have been due to large scale squad rotation but it shows how too much tinkering can lead to problems. Les Bleus suffered a last 16 exit at the 2020 European Championship and Poland offer a similar challenge to the Switzerland team that downed the French last summer. I've not been overly impressed by Poland so far with the team having failed to score in 2 of their 3 matches so far. I can see France navigating their way past this challenge. The big question will be whether they do it in normal time or if it will require extra-time or penalties. I'd like to think Kylian Mbappe could be the difference here.

France vs Poland (Sunday, 3pm GMT)

France to Win to Nil @ 5/4 with BetVictor

Anytime Scorer: Kylian Mbappe @ 21/20 with William Hill

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The second last 16 match to be played on Sunday is the big one for a lot of members of this forum as England take on Senegal. I mean, I fancied Gareth Southgate's men to win this one anyway but the fact that the Lions of Teranga will be without key midfielder Idrissa Gueye means they'll be suffering in the key area of central midfield. The Three Lions have not lost to African opposition in 7 World Cup games but 3 of those have gone to extra-time. African nations generally struggle against European opposition at a World Cup having lost 8 of the last 9 such matches in the knockout phase. This is only the second time Senegal have reached the last 16 but I feel their journey could end here. It might not be overwhelming for England but I think Southgate's more pragmatic approach will pay off here. Senegal struggled with a similar approach adopted by Netherlands in the group stage so Southgate will be wary of that.

England vs Senegal (Sunday, 7pm GMT)

England HT/FT @ 6/4 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 3/4 with VBet

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Japan vs Croatia

Japan's chances of progressing beyond round 16 became evident in their last group-stage match against Spain. The Japanese grabbed a 2-1 winner in the game after coming from 1-nil down. Despite scoring early in the game in the 11th minute, Spain couldn't score another. A dramatic second half saw Japan score twice to progress to round 16. Croatia is a familiar foe, so expect another great performance from the Japanese in this game. A pair of wins against Germany and Spain boosted Japan's confidence, and they will try to produce another upset against the World Cup 2018 runners-up.

Croatia is on the radar of everyone watching the 2022 World Cup. Will they go all the way to the finals as they did in 2018? The Checkered Ones reached this far in the 2022 World Cup on five points from the group stage. They may have failed to score in two of the three group-stage matches, but one thing stands out. Croatia is prepared defensively to take on high-pressing teams like Japan. However, the lack of reliable goal scorers is something we have witnessed and expect the Croatian coach, Zlatko Dalic, to address at this point. Ivan Perisic brings a lot to the national team with his experience, and he might be a crucial guy for Vatreni in this match.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

It is going to be a close game, and Japan shouldn't be underestimated in this encounter. Therefore, this match might go to extra time or eventually to the penalty shootout.

Goals Market Prediction

The Samurai can cause many issues to the opponent's defense with their quick transitions. On the other hand, Croatia has a lot of experience, and we might see goals in both nets.

Draw @ 3.35

BTTS Yes @ 2.05

Correct score 1:1 @ 6.50

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Brazil vs South Korea

Brazil won't want a repeat of their last result here after a 1-0 WC22 loss in their previous game against Cameroon. They have been impressive in the final third in each of their three group games, and their winning margin could have been wide if not for some brilliant saves from the opposition goalkeepers. Richarlison, Vinicius, and Raphinha were a constant threat in the final third in the first two games before resting in the 1-0 defeat to Cameroon. They should be ready for the upcoming match, and we won't be surprised if one of them scores at Stadium 974 on Monday evening. Now, Brazil should forget about their latest defeat and start a pursuit of the World Cup trophy.

Korea Republic comes into this clash following a 2-1 WC22 win against Portugal in their previous game. The South Korean unit was on the brink of elimination. Still, a miraculous ending to their game against Portugal extended their stay in Qatar, creating one of the most memorable moments in World Cup history. Hee-Chan Hwan entered the pitch in the 66th minute and scored in the injury time to deliver euphoria back home. This was a reward for Korean brave football displayed a this World Cup. They've scored four goals, allowing the same number. They now face one of the toughest rivals in the tournament, and we will see if they are capable of stunning Brazil.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Brazil is a firm favorite in this match, and we don't believe the South American team will allow a surprise. They should beat South Korea by at least two goals.

Goals Market Prediction

Interestingly, all three of Brazil's matches stayed under a 2.5 margin so far, but they could have been much more efficient. That shouldn't happen this time, and we expect to see at least three goals in this encounter.

Brazil AH -1.5 @ 1.90

Over 2.5 FT @ 1.85

Correct score 3:0 @ 7.00

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The penultimate day of games in the last 16 is coming up on Monday and it's a couple of games that have contradicting vibes about them. Japan versus Croatia is a match that might've looked a given for Croatia going into the tournament but this is a Japanese team that has already beaten both Germany and Spain. The resolve shown by Hajime Moriyasu during that final game to seal top spot in their group was unreal and makes me feel they could be worth backing here. Zlatko Dalic's men looked very under-cooked in their group games against Morocco and Belgium but those impotent displays sandwiched a 4-1 demolition of Canada. I can see why Croatia are the favourites to progress but I think they'll need extra-time or even penalties to do it. Japan are certainly worth the value though and, as a football romantic, I can't resist that. I've been very impressed by them this tournament especially when they are written off. Unfortunately, my boy Takefusa Kubo is a doubt after missing training so I won't be able to place an anytime scorer bet on him! Kubo! Kubo! Kubo! :lol

It's Brazil taking on South Korea in the second game and you have to say it seems obvious to back Tite's side. They remain my favourites to win the competition and they are boosted by the news that Neymar is fit to return. Even without Neymar, I feel Brazil have a strong enough squad to get past this South Korean side who have been inconsistent at best. Paulo Bento's men are only at this stage thanks to Hwang Hee-chan's injury-time winner over an apathetic Portugal in their final group match that saw Uruguay eliminated. I think we'll see a similar outcome to the France and England victories here with Brazil getting the job done with minimal fuss.

Japan vs Croatia (Monday, 3pm GMT)

Japan to Qualify @ 17/10 with Sporting Index

BTTS @ Evens with Unibet

Brazil vs South Korea (Thursday, 7pm GMT)

Brazil HT/FT @ 10/11 with Bet365

Brazil -1 @ 10/13 with BetUK

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Just now, DrO said:

That's for sure.

Nevertheless,i see Croatia as a much stronger and "deeper" side..pack with quality and experience,both. A narrow win for the Croatia..something like 1:0..maybe even after extra time..

Yes, I certainly think backing this game to go into extra-time is worthwhile so maybe the draw after 90 minutes at 12/5 with Betfred is another sound pick.

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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

The penultimate day of games in the last 16 is coming up on Monday and it's a couple of games that have contradicting vibes about them. Japan versus Croatia is a match that might've looked a given for Croatia going into the tournament but this is a Japanese team that has already beaten both Germany and Spain. The resolve shown by Hajime Moriyasu during that final game to seal top spot in their group was unreal and makes me feel they could be worth backing here. Zlatko Dalic's men looked very under-cooked in their group games against Morocco and Belgium but those impotent displays sandwiched a 4-1 demolition of Canada. I can see why Croatia are the favourites to progress but I think they'll need extra-time or even penalties to do it. Japan are certainly worth the value though and, as a football romantic, I can't resist that. I've been very impressed by them this tournament especially when they are written off. Unfortunately, my boy Takefusa Kubo is a doubt after missing training so I won't be able to place an anytime scorer bet on him! Kubo! Kubo! Kubo! :lol

It's Brazil taking on South Korea in the second game and you have to say it seems obvious to back Tite's side. They remain my favourites to win the competition and they are boosted by the news that Neymar is fit to return. Even without Neymar, I feel Brazil have a strong enough squad to get past this South Korean side who have been inconsistent at best. Paulo Bento's men are only at this stage thanks to Hwang Hee-chan's injury-time winner over an apathetic Portugal in their final group match that saw Uruguay eliminated. I think we'll see a similar outcome to the France and England victories here with Brazil getting the job done with minimal fuss.

Japan vs Croatia (Monday, 3pm GMT)

Japan to Qualify @ 17/10 with Sporting Index

BTTS @ Evens with Unibet

Brazil vs South Korea (Thursday, 7pm GMT)

Brazil HT/FT @ 10/11 with Bet365

Brazil -1 @ 10/13 with BetUK

I am with you !!!!!! Croatia is a team with a better technique and much more experienced, but Japan faced Germany and Spain very effectively. Its about a disciplined and very good to the physical type of game.  Maybe we see the surprise here. In the other match it will be an easy night for Brazil.

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It was so close to a total sweep yesterday. I'm still not sure why Japan's players were repeatedly taking the same awful types of penalties! Anyway, we go again! It's the final two games from the last 16 on Tuesday when Morocco play Spain and Portugal take on Switzerland. Walid Regragui's men must be thinking how harsh the World Cup is given they topped their group yet still have to face one of the favourites in the next round in the shape of La Roja. I'm anticipating this to be a very closely fought and tight encounter. Spain head coach Luis Enrique clearly feels there is a chance this could go all the way because he's stated in the media about how he has set his players the task of practicing penalties since their elimination against eventual winners Italy from the 2020 European Championship last summer via penalties. I think Spain could maybe sneak it within the 90 minutes. The loss to Japan in the final group stage game was probably a well-timed reality check.

The second and final game of the last 16 will see two experienced tournament sides in Portugal and Switzerland go toe-to-toe. I can't see either team going all the way but they both know how to go deep into tournaments. Neither team has really set the world alight but have enough quality to ensure they are tough to beat. I wouldn't be surprised if they cancelled each other out in this one and it went all the way to penalties. If I had to pick a winner then I'd say Portugal but even they are suffering from Cristiano Ronaldo's ego with head coach Fernando Santos stating he is unimpressed with the team captain's attitude. So all is not well in that camp and that can be a death knell for even the best of teams. Interestingly, they two nations have already met twice this year in the UEFA Nations League with a win apiece. Ronaldo himself has failed to score a goal in the knockout phase of a World Cup as well.

Morocco vs Spain (Tuesday, 3pm GMT)

Spain to Win to Nil @ 13/10 with BetUK

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 4/5 with Bet365

Portugal vs Switzerland (Tuesday, 7pm GMT)

Draw @ 5/2 with Betfred

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 8/11 with Unibet

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Morocco vs Spain 

Despite getting handed a tough group with Belgium, Croatia, and Canada, with two of the top three teams from the last World Cup, Morocco wasn't exactly seen as an absolute outsider. After all, they are a good team, but still, not many people saw them in the knockout stages. However, Morocco topped the group with two wins and a draw against Croatia, so they proved that they have to be taken seriously by everyone. Morocco has been tough to crack in the back, and they have conceded only once so far in the tournament. They hope to produce another disciplined display that could increase their chances of securing a positive result.

After demolishing Costa Rica at the start of the World Cup, Spain was in a good position ahead. The team drew with Germany in the second round, and they knew that they could go through even with a loss. And since they also knew the results from the group they were crossing with, Spain didn't mind losing to Japan and finishing second in the group since that led them to Morocco instead of Croatia and also to the other side of the bracket compared to Argentina and Brazil, who they can now only meet in the final. Exactly how much of Japan's win was due to Spain's calculations remains a mystery, but Spain won't have an easy job against Morocco either. There are also some younger guys who could make a splash here, like Ansu Fati, Yeremi Pino, Gavi, and Pedri.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                             

Spain is a favorite in this encounter, but they won't have an easy job. Morocco is capable of keeping this game tight, and we don't see them losing by more than a goal.

Goals Market Prediction

La Furia Roja has a lot of talent in the offense, while Morocco could also produce something in this match. Therefore, we believe neither team will keep the clean sheet in this encounter.

Morocco AH +1.25 @ 1.60

BTTS Yes @ 2.30

Correct score 1:1 @ 7.40

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Portugal vs Switzerland

After securing the top-spot finish after two rounds, Portugal suffered a stoppage-time defeat against South Korea. It didn't hurt them a lot, but another wave of complacency could cause them a lot of trouble. Portugal didn't impress against Ghana in the opening match, but a display against Uruguay was much better. However, Portugal needs to show a higher level of consistency if they want to challenge for the title. They will have a disciplined team ahead of them, and Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo should find a way how to unlock the Swiss' defense.

Switzerland, meanwhile, secured a runners-up spot by beating Serbia, 3-2, in a thrilling finish to Group G. In that game, Switzerland had 46% possession and 14 shots at goal with seven on target. For Switzerland, goals were scored by Xherdan Shaqiri (20'), Breel Embolo (44'), and Remo Freuler (48'). It was a real rollercoaster, as Switzerland dropped a 1-0 lead, but they managed to turn the result around. Despite being unstable in the back during their previous match, the Swiss were quite dangerous when attacking the opponent's goal. However, they will need to regain the defensive steel if they want to progress to the quarter-finals. For the Swiss, Noah Okafor does not start having carried a muscle injury.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                             

It is going to be an interesting match, as it can easily go either way. Nevertheless, Portugal is a slight favorite in this clash, and we think they will meet expectations and celebrate a victory.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams should be cautious, and we don't expect to see an efficient match on Tuesday evening. Therefore, we think that fans won't see more than two goals in total.

Portugal to Win @ 1.95

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.70

Correct score 1:0 @ 5.80

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1 hour ago, vikki37 said:

a few years ago, Morocco vs Spain ended up 2-2. worth going for a draw 2-2 or 1-1. Morocco have been playing very well whereas Spain is not like how they used to be. I feel Spain might win in Extra time or Penalties.

As someone with an antepost position on penalty shootouts and who has persisted with the notion of backing the draw in all knockout games I'm hoping for a couple of stalemates to finish the round off! I'm on Olmo and Asensio as anytime system bets. 

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