Racing chat -Saturday 27th Aug

[yossa6133]

On 8/26/2022 at 8:29 AM, The Brigadier said:

Beverley 2.05

The day’s nap runs here in this 1m 2F class 2 handicap. Roger Varian saddles his King Power owned three year old gelding by Holy Roman Emperor who has won two of his five starts this season. His best effort however came last time out when chasing home Ajero in a decent Goodwood handicap where he came from the back finding plenty of trouble. He can be marked up from that effort and with Kevin Stott replacing Ray Dawson can take the spoils today. The James Tate trained Wait To Excel is chasing a hat trick having won his maiden at Hamilton and a class 4 handicap at Ripon. The form of his handicap win has however not really worked out and I’m happy to oppose him. William Haggas saddles Post Impressionist who looked a horse to follow earlier in the season when he chased home the current St Leger second favourite Eldar Eldarov on the all weather at Newcastle. He’s flopped in his two subsequent starts though and with the handicapper only dropping him a pound and wearing a first time tongue tie has questions to answer. For me Kitsune Power should be favourite and he’s worth a bet.

 

KITSUNE POWER 3 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

 

 

Thanks Brigadier, followed you in on Kitsune Power ?

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Just looked its on grass so is a good bet imo another under the radar is alerta roja 205 baden baden trained by prescott owned by rowling has run lots of races in germany.

looks a good double for the short  odds players @9/1 the dble

Well that was unimpressive, outsider with no form as such makes all, alerta roja 4th and disappointing but thats the gg's for you.

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

225 good 

Orbaan  9.1 4/1 

Rhoscolyn  9.0  5/1 

Oo de lally   8.7 

I'll try 5pt wins top 2 and 2pt win doubles with these 2 and top 3 in irish race ?

2nd and 3rd ...nooooooooo?

[Zilzalian]

hoo ya mal 1/3 only ever won one race and some will back it and might win by a street but ermmmmm

[Zilzalian]

Had a discussion last week about Summerghand handicap mark is on its way down again now after that. same horse? lets see the excuses pour in now.

[The Brigadier]

On 8/26/2022 at 8:29 AM, The Brigadier said:

Beverley 1.30

A 7F 96 yard class 4 handicap starts proceedings for the ITV cameras today with the ground riding just on the slow side. The track is a turning one with those drawn low having an advantage. The most unexposed is the top weight Majestic who makes his handicap debut here for Mick Channon who has booked Ben Curtis for the ride. He’s drawn nicely in four and is the one I like. From stall two Mark Walford’s It Just Takes Time may be the biggest danger. He won a brace of handicap this summer at Thirsk and York and wasn’t disgraced at Doncaster last time when runner up to Giogiobbo. He does take a bit of a hold and it maybe best to let him roll along the fence making his own fractions. Gemma Tutty’s Tangled is on a winning mark but I don’t like his wide draw. Outrun The Storm is another with a chance at the head of the market for owners Middleham Park and trainer Richard Fahey. He’s in good form and should be thereabouts. Not a very inspiring handicap but in the hope that Majestic is better than his initial mark of 82 I’ll take him to lead home It Just Takes Time.

 

MAJESTIC 2 points win @ 9/2 William Hill

 

Goodwood 1.50

Nine go to post for this 7F group 3 Prestige fillies stakes for two year olds. With the ground riding on the slow side the only horse in the field who has actually raced on soft ground is Richard Hannon’s June course winner Bet Here. He subsequently finished 6 1/4L behind the re-opposing Godolphin filly Fairy Cross in listed company at Sandown so is hard to fancy too much unless she’s a filly that is ground dependent. The aforementioned Fairy Cross probably bumped into a smart one at Sandown when runner up to the Johnstone’s Dance In The Grass (pair pulled clear) and if handling conditions today has to be a major player. Karl Burke has some nice two year olds this season and his Bright Diamond was very impressive when putting 9L between herself and her rivals in a 6 runner Newmarket maiden on her debut three weeks ago. Visually she looked smart that day and like Fairy Cross if she handles conditions should be thereabouts. David Loughnane’s, Amo Racing owned Queen Olly is the other filly at the head of the market. She’s shown decent form at Royal Ascot and Newmarket’s July meeting in group races and also holds claims. It’s a tough call as none of the principals have encountered slow ground so I’ll keep stakes small and back the impressive debut winner Bright Diamond.

 

BRIGHT DIAMOND 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365

 

Beverley 2.05

The day’s nap runs here in this 1m 2F class 2 handicap. Roger Varian saddles his King Power owned three year old gelding by Holy Roman Emperor who has won two of his five starts this season. His best effort however came last time out when chasing home Ajero in a decent Goodwood handicap where he came from the back finding plenty of trouble. He can be marked up from that effort and with Kevin Stott replacing Ray Dawson can take the spoils today. The James Tate trained Wait To Excel is chasing a hat trick having won his maiden at Hamilton and a class 4 handicap at Ripon. The form of his handicap win has however not really worked out and I’m happy to oppose him. William Haggas saddles Post Impressionist who looked a horse to follow earlier in the season when he chased home the current St Leger second favourite Eldar Eldarov on the all weather at Newcastle. He’s flopped in his two subsequent starts though and with the handicapper only dropping him a pound and wearing a first time tongue tie has questions to answer. For me Kitsune Power should be favourite and he’s worth a bet.

 

KITSUNE POWER 3 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Goodwood 2.25

Eleven go to post for this 7F class 2 handicap where like the Golden Mile at the Festival here it pays to be drawn low on the fence as they’re always on the turn till turning into the home straight. Likely favourite Orbaan arrives in excellent form having won the aforementioned Golden Mile Handicap and followed up over today’s trip at Ascot before finishing 4th in the Clipper Logistics Handicap at York where he got no sort of run and that 4th can be marked up. He’s in stall one and should be thereabouts for trainer David O’Meara and jockey Jason Watson. O’Meara also runs Rhoscolyn and he has track form and is drawn alongside his stablemate today. He has finished behind Orbaan in his last two starts mind and it maybe the same scenario here. Richard Hannon’s Tacarib Bay is one of just two three years old in the race and will love the soggy underfoot conditions. I’m put off him mind by his stall of 11. The best outsider for me is the John Quinn trained veteran Safe Voyage who adores cut in the ground, is well berthed in four for one that likes to go forward and is below his last winning mark. I’ll play Orbaan here but can’t resist a small stakes saver on the nine year old Safe Voyage.

 

ORBAAN 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

SAFE VOYAGE 1/2 point win each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Beverley 2.40

The feature race at the day at the Yorkshire track is the 5F Beverley Bullet where a low draw on the far side against the rail has always been seen as an advantage. The best in at the weights today is the Clive Cox trained Tis Marvellous who’s only two starts at this track have come in the last two runnings of this race when an unlucky 5th in 2020 and when winning well in this last year, taking it up with a furlong to go and pushed out to win by 3 3/4L. He started from stall 6 last season and has drawn stall 7 this time around. You always need luck on the sharp 5F here but if he gets the breaks he looks sure to be thereabouts. 5lb behind on ratings is Ainsdale who’s drawn on the rail, Existent drawn alongside with this being a drop in class and three year old Korker. They all have claims but for me this all about last year’s winner Tis Marvellous under Paul Hanagan and with many bookmakers paying 4 places is worth backing each way.

 

TIS MARVELLOUS 2 points each way @ 7/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Goodwood 3.00

A very disappointing turnout of just four here for the group 3 1m 6F March Stakes. George Boughey’s smart three year old Hoo Ya Mal is officially 18lb, 32lb and 52lb better than his three rivals and it will be a major surprise were he not to win this with his head in his chest. Runner up in this year’s Epsom Derby when in the care of Andrew Balding at 150/1 he’s since joined Boughey en route to a career in Australia and ran well when third to St Leger favourite New London in Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes. There’s no real punting angle here although William Haggas’s Perfect Alibi looks sure to finish runner up.

 

 

Newmarket 3.15

With 31mm of rain Wednesday night and a further 9mm on Thursday morning the ground is likely to ride on the soft side which has hardly been seen this flat season so it’s worth searching around for the soft ground performers in this 6f listed race. Charlie Fellowes’ Vadream was a group 3 winner at Ascot on soft ground last October as well as a very credible 5th beaten 3L in the group one Champions Sprint there a fortnight later. She’s not fired this season but back on her favoured ground can be competitive. I’m not sure what to make of favourite Great Ambassador, trained by the in form Ed Walker. His wily trainer is in print in this week’s Weekender stating that he wouldn’t run on good to firm but the horse has been withdrawn twice before due to the ground being too soft. Maybe he ideally needs good ground? One things for sure win or lose he’s poor value at around the 7/2 mark to these eyes even though he is the highest rated in the field following an eye catching run last time in the Stewards Cup. Last weekends winner Summerghand won this contest last season by 2 1/2L and has claims now he’s found the winning way again. Simon and Ed Crisford train the promising three year old Daneh but we haven’t seen him since this weekend last year so there has to be a question mark over her. An outside I think can run well and out run his odds is the Adrian Nicholls trained Mo Celita. The mare started out last season by winning three soft ground sprint sellers and progressed through the handicap ranks to win in listed company at Deauville in August as well as finishing 4th in the Prix de l’Abbaye on Arc weekend. She’s not shown much in two starts this season but this is her ground (form figures on good to soft or worse 111151437) and the booking of Frankie Dettori very much takes the eye. An open sprint but I’ll chance Mo Celita each way with the enhanced 4th place.

 

MO CELITA 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Goodwood 3.35

The Celebration Mile is a group 2 event which has attracted just the five runners. Warm favourite is the Charlie Hills trained Mutasaabeq who is the highest rated here. He’s won twice on soft/heavy ground so conditions will hold no fears. He’s run well all four starts this season placing in group company on his last three starts having started his campaign with a win at Thirsk. He’ll be hard to beat. Escobar is 0 from 8 here but has run well in defeat here and is officially just 3lb inferior to Mutasaabeq having run a stormer 9 days ago when beaten a head in a competitive York handicap. Simon and Ed Crisford saddle a brace of runners in Finest Sound and Jadoomi with slight preference for the latter who was last seen winning a listed race at Claiefontaine in France in July. I think the favourite will win but wouldn’t be surprised if Ed Walker’s veteran Stormy Antarctic gives him the most to do. He’s officially only 4lb inferior to the selection with his form figures on soft or heavy reading 4174112811, a decent strike rate of 5 wins from 10 starts. It maybe worth a small straight forecast the favourite to beat him as well as backing Mutasaabeq.

 

MUTASAABEQ 2 points win @ 11/10 bet365

MUTASAABEQ to beat STORMY ANTARCTIC 1 point straight forecast

 

A winning day with two 7/2 winners for a profit of 7.90 points. 

[richard-westwood]

On 8/25/2022 at 4:14 PM, richard-westwood said:

Irish cambridgshire 

That's just dandy   9.0 20/1 7 places 

Good heavens   8.6 8/1 6 places 

Imposing supreme  8.2  50/1 7 places 

Very Tough race ....a lot could hinge on draw too ...but these 3 are a little clear so I'll try 5pt ew all 3 ? 

 

Huge gamble ....that's just dandy backed into 6/1 2nd fav .....but can he win ???cmonnnn

[richard-westwood]

On 8/25/2022 at 4:14 PM, richard-westwood said:

Irish cambridgshire 

That's just dandy   9.0 20/1 7 places 

Good heavens   8.6 8/1 6 places 

Imposing supreme  8.2  50/1 7 places 

Very Tough race ....a lot could hinge on draw too ...but these 3 are a little clear so I'll try 5pt ew all 3 ? 

 

Disappointing run  ....Good heaven 2nd 

[The Equaliser]

8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Disappointing run  ....Good heaven 2nd 

Yeah, not the first time O'Brien has done this, I believe.  I used to always back Aiden O'Brien's second string because he used to do this often.  I think you were very unlucky not to win both the races you put up.  Well done with your ratings Richard

[Gary66]

Really should of napped cowboy soldier 80/1 365 have also done 40/1 five places 365 not the most reliable but a place will pay for more than pint later .best of luck always

[Trotter]

8 hours ago, Trotter said:

System selections for today

I usually stick to handicaps with my system and it's been pretty successful on the whole

But for a change I'll try it out on the group and listed races mainly because there's enough of them to make it worthwhile if I include the Irish races at The Curragh. I'm also including the two year old races as well though logically the system should be better suited to horses with more back form that RPR has built in to the database. Obviously any system that includes a form rating 'should' be less effective with horses that haven't run very often and haven't got much form to their name

But we'll see how it goes ......  

Good 1.50 - Fairy Cross (WON 2/1)
Curr 1.55 - La Dolce Vita
Curr 2.30 - Treasure Trove (WON 6/4) and Studio City (joint top rated)
Bev 2,40 - Tis Marvellous  (WON 7/2)
Good 3.00 - Perfect Alibi
Newm 3.15 - Daneh
Good 3.35 - Jadoomi (WON 10/3)
Curr 3.40 - Seisai
Wind 6.05 - Desert Encounter
Wind 6.35 - Majestic Dawn

 

 

4 winners ....... 

to a 1 point win stake ..... stakes 11.00, returns 14.33

profit of  3.33

not as good as last time .......  Thursday's handicaps at Newcastle,  but not bad !