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Racing Chat - Wednesday August 17th

The Brigadier
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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

The rest of my York fancies today.

2.25 Indestructible 0.30 ew at 9/1 and Hectic 0.30 ew at 20/1

3.00 Secret State 1 pt win at 11/4 (My PL Nap)

4.10 Master Milliner 1 pt win at 8.4

4.45 Pink Crystal 1 pt win at 6.2, Cuban Breeze 0.20 pts at 9/2 (ins)

5.20 Mrs USa 1 pt win at 5.50, streets OF Gold 1 pt win at 9/2 and Bakeel 0.15 ew at 25/1

Secret State , Master Milliner and Pink Cystal 0.5 win Trixie = 2.0 with poss return of 108.49

Total stakes = 10.10 with earlier 2 pt stake on 1.50

RESULTS UPDATE

It was quite fun getting 3 place bets returned on the 1.50 at York.  I laid out 2 points and got back 2.74.  I don't usually do each-way bets but I think if the odds around 10/1 about a selection then it is worthwhile.  Two seconds in my win Trixie so nil returned.  My nap let me down.  Luckily Street Of Gold won so a small loss on the day of 2.46.  This makes my MTD -40.05 & YTD - 242.33

Let's hope I get some more fun at the York festival

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I've gone for winning distance >2.5 lengths (regardless of winner) at 13/8 Sky Bet

Baaeed by 3 or more is 15/8 with Fred.

PP have Baaeed by 4 or more at 7/2 but would only allow me 20p on! :lol

20p?????????? WOW i think i will settle for just watching, the 15/8 is cracking good value though in my book. I'm ok on the day with 2 from 3 at the mo so can afford to pass. if i was down i would be all over that 15/8 like a rash. FFS i just said that and they mentioned rash on tv. ??

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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I've gone for winning distance >2.5 lengths (regardless of winner) at 13/8 Sky Bet

Baaeed by 3 or more is 15/8 with Fred.

PP have Baaeed by 4 or more at 7/2 but would only allow me 20p on! :lol

Skybet go 6/4  (from 4/6 )over 1.75L but could only get a fiver on

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/york/15:35/price-boost

Edited by Tedthewolf
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yossa6133

yossa6133

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

What's that under? I can only see evens for 2 or more and 15/8 for 3 or more in the list of winning distance specials for the race.

Sorry, I didn't see that. Was on the main page under "Turbo Boost", they might have been feeling sorry for me after I lost a meaty football bet last night ?

 

Impressive to do that to a horse as good as Mishriff.

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Badeed has amazing speed figures (all of them) often produced without looking like it, this horse really is something special although i wont be backing it at this price its not really taking anything overly special on. 4/7 is excellent value by any measures, too much is made about it will it wont it get 10f not sure what the winning distance odds are but 6-8l is probable in my book.

Another great speed figure for baaeed in the Juddmonte

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roger2256

roger2256

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Amazed that people backed it to get beat to be honest, not exactly a dodgy horse is it? and to be honest the form of opposition doesnt stack up to much this season.

That was impressive without question,  on at corals @13/8 for 2.5 lths .

Pure folly to lay a group horse with such ability but some will always follow Chinese whispers like lamb's to the slaughter 

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, roger2256 said:

That was impressive without question,  on at corals @13/8 for 2.5 lths .

Pure folly to lay a group horse with such ability but some will always follow Chinese whispers like lamb's to the slaughter 

Some people just love the "noise" dont they?

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roger2256

roger2256

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Some people just love the "noise" dont they?

Absolutely , unfortunately iff's ,whens and maybe's along with , woulda, shoulda, coulda don't pay for the takeaway. 

Sure MC can run it through his stats but g1 FLAT horses in g1 races with an sp of less than 1/2 rarely lose ( according to AM just 9 in the last 7 years I believe) 

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Posted
On 8/16/2022 at 8:40 AM, The Brigadier said:
*Weather warning*
There is the potential for York racecourse to get plenty of rain over the next 24 hours with a forecast that is very localised. My synopsis has been done on good ground so keep an eye on the forecast as obviously were the ground to turn soft it would change my thoughts.
 
York 1.50
York’s four day Ebor Festival kicks off with a fiendishly difficult 5F heritage handicap featuring a maximum field of twenty two. Course specialist’s Dakota Gold (five wins from ten starts here) and Copper Knight (5 from 16) both have claims especially the former who won this back in 2019 and arrives in decent recent form finishing runner up at Ripon on good to soft ground. Michael Dods’s eight year old has to be part of the staking plan. Bottom weight Dusky Lord sports first time blinkers following a good run at Goodwood last time and is another with a a chance along with Tracy Waggott’s Ghantanfar who’s recent 3rd here over 6F behind useful yardstick Gale Force Maya gives him a decent chance. Waggott won the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon on Saturday with her Intrinsic Bond so has her small team in good shape and he’s the other runner I want on my side in a wide open sprint handicap where stakes should be kept small.
 
DAKOTA GOLD 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
GHANTAFAR 1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 123456
 
York 2.25
Nine two year olds go to post for the group 3 7F Acomb Stakes. Charlie Appleby saddles the likely favourite in Local Dynasty who impressed on his debut in a Newmarket maiden when scooting clear of his field winning by 3 1/2L. None of the defeated horses have run since so it’s hard to know what he’s beaten unlike Andrew Balding’s Chaldean who improved for his promising debut run to win a novice stakes contest at Newbury that has worked out so well with the runner up, third and fourth all winning since. Arguably the form horse is the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Mill Stream who followed up his Doncaster maiden debut win by going down by half a length to Charlie Appleby’s Noble Style at Newmarket 19 days ago. He should run well especially now stepping up in trip. At the current prices though I want to be with Chaldean who will be ridden today by Ryan Moore for the Juddmonte operation and looks cracking each way value. None of the nine runners have run on anything away from fast ground so we’re the ground to change it would make it a no play race.
 
CHALDEAN 1 points each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123
 
York 3.00
Only six three year old colts have declared for the group two 1m 4F Great Voltigeur Stakes but it’s an intriguing contest none the less with Charlie Appleby saddling a brace of smart sorts in Secret State who’s stepping out of handicaps having won decent races at Royal Ascot and Goodwood, the pick of William Buick and James Doyle’s mount Walk Of Stars who by all accounts has been burning up the gallops at Moultons Paddocks alongside the year older Yibir who actually won this contest last year. Aiden O’Brien has settled with Aikhal of his four runners at the five day stage. He was very impressive last time out and is stepping up to 12F for the first time today. James Ferguson’s stable star Deauville Legend is another with decent claims who was runner up in the Gordon Stakes to the useful New London giving him 3lb. If there was a downpour and the ground turned bad then that would be in the favour of James Ferguson’s other runner here El Bodegon. A tough call but I’m just coming down on the side of Secret State who’s done very little wrong this season and has also won on soft ground at Chester when winning his maiden so won’t mind if the ground did change.
 
SECRET STATE 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill
 
York 3.35
A small but select field of seven go to post for the group one 1m 2F 56 yard Juddmonte International Stakes which features the unbeaten superstar Baaeed who has won all nine of his starts all at a mile and steps up in trip today. He’s hard to oppose although he does have to prove that he stays this new trip. He’s won on good to firm and good to soft so unless the ground changed dramatically will handle the under foot conditions although obviously if the rain did get in then that would make it more of a test of stamina. I’m happy to watch at the likely odds although I am tempted in having a small bet on Mishriff who bolted up in this contest last year winning by 6L from the re-opposing Alenquer. An unlucky loser of the Eclipse at Sandown this season when not getting the splits at the right time he may have lost his race in the King George when slowly away at the gates. Official ratings only have him 4lb behind Baaeed and he’s worth a small interest. The only three year old in the field is the Charlie Appleby trained Native Trial, runner up in the 2000 guineas prior to winning the Irish version. He has a bit to find with Mishriff on Eclipse form although not a lot. An intriguing contest which Baaeed could run away with it but I can’t resist a small bet on John and Thady Gosden’s Mishriff.
 
MISHRIFF 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365
 
York 4.10
Fifteen go to post here for this two mile class 2 Heritage handicap which has quite an open look about it. Current favourite is recent Goodwood Festival winner Master Miliner who is up 5lb for that victory. He’s two from three at this track and should be competitive for dual purpose trainer Emma Lavelle. It is that Goodwood race though that I feel today’s winner may well come from with Hugo Palmer’s Zoffee the one I like. He may well of not stayed that day with the 2m 4F trip drawing out his stamina. In fact at the two mile stage nothing was going better than Zoffee and he is now 5lb better off with Master Miliner. He has form over hurdles with give in the ground so shouldn’t be too inconvenienced were the ground to change and he looks excellent value with Ben Curtis doing the steering. The Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Soapy Stevens comes here in good form and is another with a good chance but it’s all about Zoffee for me.
 
ZOFFEE 2 points each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

Profit of 2.26 points on the day with Chaldean a nice 7/1 winner.  Thursday's thoughts/tips were uploaded this morning.

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yossa6133

yossa6133

Posted
Posted (edited)

Bagan 7:40 Worcester (4/1). Surprised he's not fav after winning so easily over CD last time. Up 6lb, but that extra weight certainly wouldn't have stopped him winning that race and the claimer takes off 3lb of that anyway.

 

Didn't even challenge ?

Edited by yossa6133
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