richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) I'd like to come up with a really good class rating for use not only in conjunction with my own ratings but general use everyday .....its something I've pondered for quite a while but to get a good rating you have to overcome a few obstacles but I'll give it a go and see if we can iron out the creases then everyone can potentially use them for whatever The argument that always ..always pops up is course adjustment so straight off I needed to factor that in .... then you have your class rating itself ....then an adjustment for where you finished .... Each one of course has its pitfalls and I'm sure will require a bit of debate but it's not impossible and it's a worthwhile thing to try and do So let's just dive in the deep end and see what happens .. Firstly ....the master formula after trying numerous diff formulas (at least 10 ) this is the one I like most (Course points + race class )/2 = x ( Lengths won or beaten.. x2 )+or - x = final class Might look complicated but once you start putting in values it quickly becomes easy So first of all we need some sort of course adjustment ...so bear with me because this is a starting point and open to adjustment Ascot 16 Ayr 12 Bath 4 Beverly 8 Brighton 4 Carlisle 4 Catterick 4 Chelmsford 8 Chepstow 4 Chester 12 Doncaster 12 Epsom 16 Goodwood 16 Hamilton 4 Haydock 12 Kempton aw 8 Leicester 8 Ling aw 4 Ling turf 8 Musselburgh 8 Newbury 12 Newcastle 4 Newmarket 16 Nottingham 8 Pontefract 8 Redcar 4 Ripon 8 Salisbury 8 Sandown 12 Southwell 4 Thirsk 8 Windsor 8 Wolv aw 4 Yarmouth 8 York 12 Based on average class and prize money at the course without it being too biased towards one course or another Classes of race chart Class 6 34 Class 5 43 Class 4 60 Class 3 75 Class 2 90 Listed 100 Group 3 112 Group 2 120 Group 1 130 Again just a base rating to try and separate the groups....so that gives us a base for the formula so I suppose all thats left is try a few examples and see how it holds up ? Edited July 3, 2022 by richard-westwood alexcaruso808, Wildgarden and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 So let's pick an example off air ....let's say a class 3 race at ascot and the horse finished 2 lengths down Class 3 =75 + Course 16 =91 Horse finished 2 lengths down(2 ×2) So -4 Final rating = 87 Let's say another horse won a class 3 at Leicester by 2 lengths Class 3 =75 Course adjust +8 =83 Won 2 lengths = +4 Final rating 87 So a 2 length winner at leic gets same class as a 2 length loser at ascot same class......I'm quite happy with that to start as it addresses the course problem to begin with ....obviously numbers can be tweaked but its,a good start alexcaruso808, Wildgarden and Bang on 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 402 ayr Orbaan 84 101 Cassy o 58 79 Gweedore 66 82 Tilsitt 60 74 Dulla 48 62 Tommy g 74 62 Left fig is most recent other is last but 1 ....drop in figure is usually due to weight rise etc ...so top 2 on class look Tommy g and orbaan ...with orbaan looking particularly classy under these conditions ? alexcaruso808, Budgie 65 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Budgie 65 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Hi Richard in May when the formbook was going orbaan would have won So I do watch money markets at the moment to my confidence is back alexcaruso808 and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 Interesting .....gweedore win ...orbaan 2nd ...Tommy g 4th ... Gweedore was 2nd rated on class based on last but 1 run but interesting result..Tilsitt and Tommy g were 4th joint rated on last 2 runs and have finished erd and 4th so might be you need to use last 2 runs as the benchmark Wildgarden, vikki37, alexcaruso808 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 Will never be an exact science because not adjusting for weight and bound to have some sort of effect but I think if I can get it to work pretty well then used in conjunction with my own ratings which do compensate for weight then might flaG up some nice bets .... horses that possess both high ratings have got to be good Budgie 65 and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Will never be an exact science because not adjusting for weight and bound to have some sort of effect but I think if I can get it to work pretty well then used in conjunction with my own ratings which do compensate for weight then might flaG up some nice bets .... horses that possess both high ratings have got to be good do a few more examples see how they go. few races left yet alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Oh crap ...just realised I didn't divide by 2 ...I put that in to balance it out a bit as I think it needs it ....I think it might have put gweedore 2nd if I had ....jeez ... but that's the point of this to learn 512 ayr Bankawi 16 12 Retirement beckons 11 20 Hello power 16 19 Whos dandy 17 0 Poor race .. ..not but only these 4 have a rating so let's see what happens ? Edited July 3, 2022 by richard-westwood alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Oh crap ...just realised I didn't divide by 2 ...I put that in to balance it out a bit as I think it needs it ....I think it might have put gweedore 2nd if I had ....jeez ... but that's the point of this to learn 512 ayr Bankawi 16 12 Retirement beckons 11 20 Hello power 16 19 Whos dandy 17 0 Poor race .. ..not but only these 4 have a rating so let's see what happens ? Actual Weight diff from last run on back Bank +4 Retire +9 Hello level Who's +5 Hello power looks best in ?? alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Just curious why haydock only 8? alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 Just now, Zilzalian said: Just curious why haydock only 8? Well ...you do get some classy races but also some tatty races so I stuck it in the middle ...I didn't want to rate it too highly ??...but it might need to go up in time ...keep an eye on it alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Just curious why haydock only 8? I've changed it up to 12 ...it didn't seem right sameas Windsor..lol alexcaruso808 and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Might this help? I think it very tricky/subjective to identify a class list of courses so maybe the "pattern book" could rank them for you, Just a suggestion. List of Group One Horse Races in the United Kingdom Here is a list of all the Group 1 races in the UK: Race Name Racecourse Distance Age/Sex Month 2000 Guineas Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo c&f April 1000 Guineas Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo f April Lockinge Stakes Newbury 1m 4yo+ May Coronation Cup Epsom 1m 4f 6y 4yo+ May Oaks Stakes Epsom 1m 4f 6y 3yo f May Derby Stakes Epsom 1m 4f 6y 3yo c&f June Queen Anne Stakes Ascot 1m 4yo+ June King’s Stand Stakes Ascot 5f 3yo+ June St. James’s Palace Stakes Ascot 7f 213y 3yo c June Prince of Wales’s Stakes Ascot 1m 1f 212y 4yo+ June Ascot Gold Cup Ascot 2m 3f 210yd 4yo+ June Commonwealth Cup Ascot 6f 3yo c&f June Coronation Stakes Ascot 7f 213y 3yo f June Diamond Jubilee Stakes Ascot 6f 4yo+ June Eclipse Stakes Sandown 1m 1f 209y 3yo+ July Falmouth Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo+ f July July Cup Newmarket 6f 3yo+ July King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes Ascot 1m 3f 211y 3yo+ July Goodwood Cup Goodwood 2m 3yo+ July Sussex Stakes Goodwood 1m 3yo+ July Nassau Stakes Goodwood 1m 1f 197y 3yo+ f July International Stakes York 1m 2f 56y 3yo+ August Yorkshire Oaks York 1m 3f 188y 3yo+ f August Nunthorpe Stakes York 5f 2yo+ August Sprint Cup Haydock 6f 3yo+ September St Leger Stakes Doncaster 1m 6f 115y 3yo c&f September Cheveley Park Stakes Newmarket 6f 2yo f September Middle Park Stakes Newmarket 6f 2yo c September Sun Chariot Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo+ f October Fillies’ Mile Newmarket 1m 2yo f October Dewhurst Stakes Newmarket 7f 2yo c&f October British Champions Sprint Stakes Ascot 6f 3yo+ October British Champions Fillies’ and Mares’ Stakes Ascot 1m 3f 211y 3yo+ f October Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Ascot 1m 3yo+ October Champion Stakes Ascot 1m 1f 212y 3yo+ October Vertem Futurity Trophy Doncaster 1m 2yo c&f October alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Actual Weight diff from last run on back Bank +4 Retire +9 Hello level Who's +5 Hello power looks best in ?? Bankawi won ...retirement 2nd ...to be fair hello power has run crap over a mile both times ...I just don't think he stays Budgie 65, Zilzalian, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 hi Richard, how did you assign the points to the courses and the classes? Is the class points something to do with OR? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Might this help? I think it very tricky/subjective to identify a class list of courses so maybe the "pattern book" could rank them for you, Just a suggestion. List of Group One Horse Races in the United Kingdom Here is a list of all the Group 1 races in the UK: Race Name Racecourse Distance Age/Sex Month 2000 Guineas Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo c&f April 1000 Guineas Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo f April Lockinge Stakes Newbury 1m 4yo+ May Coronation Cup Epsom 1m 4f 6y 4yo+ May Oaks Stakes Epsom 1m 4f 6y 3yo f May Derby Stakes Epsom 1m 4f 6y 3yo c&f June Queen Anne Stakes Ascot 1m 4yo+ June King’s Stand Stakes Ascot 5f 3yo+ June St. James’s Palace Stakes Ascot 7f 213y 3yo c June Prince of Wales’s Stakes Ascot 1m 1f 212y 4yo+ June Ascot Gold Cup Ascot 2m 3f 210yd 4yo+ June Commonwealth Cup Ascot 6f 3yo c&f June Coronation Stakes Ascot 7f 213y 3yo f June Diamond Jubilee Stakes Ascot 6f 4yo+ June Eclipse Stakes Sandown 1m 1f 209y 3yo+ July Falmouth Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo+ f July July Cup Newmarket 6f 3yo+ July King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes Ascot 1m 3f 211y 3yo+ July Goodwood Cup Goodwood 2m 3yo+ July Sussex Stakes Goodwood 1m 3yo+ July Nassau Stakes Goodwood 1m 1f 197y 3yo+ f July International Stakes York 1m 2f 56y 3yo+ August Yorkshire Oaks York 1m 3f 188y 3yo+ f August Nunthorpe Stakes York 5f 2yo+ August Sprint Cup Haydock 6f 3yo+ September St Leger Stakes Doncaster 1m 6f 115y 3yo c&f September Cheveley Park Stakes Newmarket 6f 2yo f September Middle Park Stakes Newmarket 6f 2yo c September Sun Chariot Stakes Newmarket 1m 3yo+ f October Fillies’ Mile Newmarket 1m 2yo f October Dewhurst Stakes Newmarket 7f 2yo c&f October British Champions Sprint Stakes Ascot 6f 3yo+ October British Champions Fillies’ and Mares’ Stakes Ascot 1m 3f 211y 3yo+ f October Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Ascot 1m 3yo+ October Champion Stakes Ascot 1m 1f 212y 3yo+ October Vertem Futurity Trophy Doncaster 1m 2yo c&f October It's a difficult subject ...I want to adjust but I don't want to adjust too much ....I suppose once you've got a baserating you can manually say ...well if he finished 5 le gths down in guineas then maybe he deserves bonus points ....I wouldn't use this on its own I don't think ...it needs some kind of form rating too to work properly ...that would give you the strength of the race your looking at then and the merits ofthe rating ....obvious aguineas run would have a high form rating so that strengthens the class rating then ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: hi Richard, how did you assign the points to the courses and the classes? Is the class points something to do with OR? Trial and error....the course was mainly class of course and average prize ...the class one I tried diff things .average prize etc but in the end I just tried to use common sense ....a 2 length loser at class 3 would rate 71 whereas a good easy 2 length winner at class 4 could rate 65 or more.. that just feels right ...but of course there might be a way to base it on weight but how would you quantify a class rise in lbs from say Ascot to Nottingham say .... alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) I will be interested to know how this system goes. Are you going to integrate it into your current system, or are you going to let it run by itself? Edited July 3, 2022 by alexcaruso808 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: I will be interested to know how this system goes. Are you going to integrate it into your current system, or are you going to let it run by itself? I'm mainly interested in how it performs in tandem with my ratings ....if it does well I'll find some way of programming it in but that's a lot of work so I'll only do it if it works well ......but it can narrow races down by itself by looks of it ...in both races the winner was in top 3 so it looks promising ......as time goes on certain ratings might need tweaking up or down ....I.e a class 2 good run might rate higher than I've currently rated so if they win more often than I'd expect it can be tweaked up to give it more strength or vice versa ....if they high ratings seem to losing too much the rating can be lowered accordingly It's,a good starting point ....I'm really happy with it so far ....just need some decent races now .....I can't rate tomorrow cos on 12 hour shift but if anyone else fancies a go feel free ...its an open subject Just remember to divide by 2 on the first line ? Edited July 3, 2022 by richard-westwood alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 There's been lots of books written on subject and some formulas thrown around but some woukd rate a race at ascot 50pts ahead of one at say Salisbury....that's just silly lol Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 410 ayr Aberama 31.5 34 Black f 33 33 Summer sands 33 42 Call me ginger 38 38 Music society 31 36 Quest for fun 36 26 Quest for fun is improving ...call me ginger looks the most consistent class call Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Why not rate the courses by grade You then only have 4 standards to fit to your algo, ...'KISS'... (KEEP-IT-SMALL & SIMPLE ) while building , you can always expand on it later. Grade 1 Aintree Ascot Ayr Cheltenham Doncaster Haydock Kempton Newbury Newcastle Newmarket Sandown Grade 2 Chepstow Fontwell Lingfield – Turf Newton Abbot Wetherby Salisbury Thirsk Grade 3 Folkestone Huntingdon Leicester Market Rasen Nottingham Plumpton Stratford Uttoxeter Warwick Wincanton Windsor Worcester Grade 4 Bangor Carlisle Cartmel Exeter Fakenham Hereford Hexham Kelso Ludlow Perth Sedgefield Southwell Taunton Edited July 3, 2022 by Valiant Thor grammar Budgie 65, alexcaruso808 and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 Those jumps ?...that might come in handy later....I've used the one off flatstats to help.dont know why it differs maybe his own ...I don't think they are too far out though ....don't think it's a huge issue tbh ...once your divide by 2 the adjustment is small but its an adjustment at least ...the fact the numbers are looking "sensible " is,a good sign ....when horses are rating 38 38 ...that's a sign to me that we cant be far out ....if I was getting 31 51 ...consistently I'd think something was wrong ... I think if there is,a problem it might be between class 2 and listed ...its a grey area where some class 2 are better than listed and some class 2 can perform at group 2 so that's the thing I'm most worried about ....Time will tell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Tbh ...its really easy ....I've listed the courses and adjustment on 1 a4 paper ....the class rating on another and all I have to do then is,read across both pages and adjust the lengths down or up ...literally 1 min a horse so it's very easy to do Oh and divide by 2 of course ? Edited July 3, 2022 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Tbh ...its really easy ....I've listed the courses and adjustment on 1 a4 paper ....the class rating on another and all I have to do then is,read across both pages Whats paper richard-westwood, Budgie 65, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 4, 2022 Author Share Posted July 4, 2022 21 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 410 ayr Aberama 31.5 34 Black f 33 33 Summer sands 33 42 Call me ginger 38 38 Music society 31 36 Quest for fun 36 26 Quest for fun is improving ...call me ginger looks the most consistent class call Quest won ...call me ginger 3rd ....so the winner has been in top 3 rated every race so far ....definately a tool for narrowing down races ..... I'm happy with the figures so far so I'll take it up a notch and rate a race with both my ratings and the class ratings .....either tonight or first thing in morning ....i think there's a decent class 2 tomorrow ? alexcaruso808, Budgie 65, LEE-GRAYS and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 4, 2022 Author Share Posted July 4, 2022 315 pont Roman mist 9.1 60 Thunder beauty 8.7 61 Rising star 8.6 53 Right .....First number is my rating ...2nd number is class rating most recent ......cracking race tbh ....combination of my rating and almost equal xlass rating suggests roman mist can beat thunder beauty .....going to be a tough ask but let's play Roman mist 10pt win 3/1 ? alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 On the whole I'm pretty pleased with it ....its feels OK....I've never really come across a decent way to rate class...its usually ...knock the last 2 digits off prizemoney and use that but I've never really thought that worked well ...it always felt "wrong " Next biggest obstacle to consider is weight Class is like dark matter ....you know its there as you can see its effects but its hard to quantify ...when you run the thought experiment in your head and a horse runs a classy performance let's say 100 carrying 9 st ..in a listed race then drops into class 2 .....his official rating might not change do from the handicappers point of view nothings changed but from the Invisible classes perspective you've been allocated 10st today a full stone heavier ....it effects speed but also effects class .....the horse won't be able to achieve the same class rating now so in my head it needs to be adjusted for weight too to get a really accurate rating Likewise when a horse runs an average class rating let's say 80 off 9st 10lb .....then steps up in grade to say class 2 and is allocated 8st 7lb ...he us now a full 17lb less so his potential class rating has rocketed and that is how bottom weights spring surprises in big hcaps ....on paper it looks a shock but in reality the class factor was always there ....food for thought alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 4 hours ago, richard-westwood said: On the whole I'm pretty pleased with it ....its feels OK....I've never really come across a decent way to rate class...its usually ...knock the last 2 digits off prizemoney and use that but I've never really thought that worked well ...it always felt "wrong " Next biggest obstacle to consider is weight Class is like dark matter ....you know its there as you can see its effects but its hard to quantify ...when you run the thought experiment in your head and a horse runs a classy performance let's say 100 carrying 9 st ..in a listed race then drops into class 2 .....his official rating might not change do from the handicappers point of view nothings changed but from the Invisible classes perspective you've been allocated 10st today a full stone heavier ....it effects speed but also effects class .....the horse won't be able to achieve the same class rating now so in my head it needs to be adjusted for weight too to get a really accurate rating Likewise when a horse runs an average class rating let's say 80 off 9st 10lb .....then steps up in grade to say class 2 and is allocated 8st 7lb ...he us now a full 17lb less so his potential class rating has rocketed and that is how bottom weights spring surprises in big hcaps ....on paper it looks a shock but in reality the class factor was always there ....food for thought With regards to weight, I subtract the OR from the TopSpeed rating and see what the result is. If it's a positive number then it's good, negative numbers are "bad". You can see here Roman Mist is 9lbs ahead of the handicapper. Personally I don't rely solely on this system, but it might give you a rough idea or some ideas. I can't remember what book I got this from, but it can be handy sometimes. Wildgarden and Bang on 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 33 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: With regards to weight, I subtract the OR from the TopSpeed rating and see what the result is. If it's a positive number then it's good, negative numbers are "bad". You can see here Roman Mist is 9lbs ahead of the handicapper. Personally I don't rely solely on this system, but it might give you a rough idea or some ideas. I can't remember what book I got this from, but it can be handy sometimes. Thats an interesting concept...I know some people use rpr last time compared to today's o.r ....but the racing post always add about 5 pts anyway but if the difference is like 10pts or more then the horse looks,well ahead of the hccaper ... If roman mist wins your hired!!...?? alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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