Class ratings

[richard-westwood]

On 7/7/2022 at 11:11 AM, richard-westwood said:

410 newm Friday 

Just class for this one 

Mum's tipple  40 40 

Bullace  27 31 

Lord rapscallion 52 51 

Ataser  38 34 

Spirited guest   37 28 

Nizzaka   45+  36 

Not even gonna argue  ... looks,a,2 horse race between the consistently high rated lord rapscalluon and the fast improving nizaaka   .....Good race ..let's try squeeze some profit out 

Nizaaka   8pts,win 11/4 

Lord rapscallion 8pts win 11/2 

Nizzaka wins....3rd rated mums tipple has finished 2nd ....very pleased with how the class ratings have performed ....I'll switch back to my own ratings tomorrow and use the class ratings to help sort out the chaff ?

[alexcaruso808]

@richard-westwood a question had just occurred to me.  When you are rating a race do you read what, for example, the Racing Post has to say about each horse, or do you just info off raw data and ignore the write-ups and pundits?

[richard-westwood]

1 minute ago, alexcaruso808 said:

@richard-westwood a question had just occurred to me.  When you are rating a race do you read what, for example, the Racing Post has to say about each horse, or do you just info off raw data and ignore the write-ups and pundits?

I just trust the ratings tbh ....sometimes if it picks an outsider ill look around and see if anyone has given it a good write up but generally I just trust my instincts....once the ratings are up I generally get a feel for who can win .....but the class ratings are going to help now for sure 

[richard-westwood]

On 7/7/2022 at 12:03 PM, richard-westwood said:

445 newc Friday 

Glory fighter   8.6  class 42 47 9/1 

Tees spirit   8.4   class 48 53 6/1 

Ancient times  8.1 class 49 

Novello  8.1  class 45 48 

Greatest showman  8.0 class 44 

Tough race but with a good combined rating top 2 ew look the call ....but its pretty open between the top 5 

5pt ew glory and tees 

 

Tees and ancient both placed from the top 4 rated ....so we've proved the class ratings work .....untapped little gold mine....I don't even have to mess . .they are fine as they are ....so another weapon for people to use as they please ?

[alexcaruso808]

52 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I just trust the ratings tbh ....sometimes if it picks an outsider ill look around and see if anyone has given it a good write up but generally I just trust my instincts....once the ratings are up I generally get a feel for who can win .....but the class ratings are going to help now for sure 

Thanks for your thoughts, Richard.  I agree with you, it's always better to trust your own ratings.  The number of times some longshot horse has won and I've gone to the RP website and it says something like the horse performed badly LTO and others are better....then the horse goes and wins!  It seems as though these "experts" writing up do not consider things such as a horse being run in a tactical manner.

[MCLARKE]

I have dug out some analysis I did in the past which analysed profitability based on the course of the previous run.

This showed Ayr as the most profitable with an AE of 1.06 followed by Yarmouth, Nottingham and Newmarket at 1.05.

Bottom of the list is Sandown, Leicester, Chepstow and Beverley at 0.95 followed by Ascot at 0.96.

Some surprises there, especially Ascot.

However perhaps if a horse has previously run at Ascot then punters are aware of this and overbet it.

The actual class of the race doesn't seems to have much of an impact, the best being class 6 at 1.01 and the worst class 3 at 0.99.