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Racing chat -Sunday 12th june


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todays 40p lucky 15

315 sali    zaman jemil           13/2         lost

212 donc endeared               9/1           3rd

535 sali    wagga wagga        7/1           2nd

325 Long lord charming        11/1         lost

no luck here but we move on.

Edited by Zilzalian
update
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13 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

137 donc 

Abduction  8.4 15/2 

Zummurud   8.3  10/1 

Safran  8.0  15/2 

Yanifer  7.6   14/1 

I'll try 4pt wins top 3 ...10p tricasts top 4 

 

I love the way you stick to the same points value win whether a horse is 5/1 or 20/1.  I guess that it's in the belief that in a handicap all horses have the same chance of crossing the line together.  Zumurud is top-rated by Timeform so I have had 1 pt win at 13 on Betfair

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32 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I love the way you stick to the same points value win whether a horse is 5/1 or 20/1.  I guess that it's in the belief that in a handicap all horses have the same chance of crossing the line together.  Zumurud is top-rated by Timeform so I have had 1 pt win at 13 on Betfair

Once I've rated them the actual chance is the rating ....anything within 1 pt of top rated has a real chance of winning regardless of bookies price so if prices are good ...may as well play ?

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2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Once I've rated them the actual chance is the rating ....anything within 1 pt of top rated has a real chance of winning regardless of bookies price so if prices are good ...may as well play ?

Haha, I'll have to watch out for those that are not within 1 pt of being top rated

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13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

240 salis 

Rose Barton 8.0 4.1 

Say if you will  7.3 10/1 

Keep hoping 7.3 23.0 

Top rated is a bit in front here  ....so I'll try 6pt win top rated ...1pt ew other 2 

rose barton has top speed rating if helps too. im on it too. gf today though was good lto hopefully pulls through

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A trial experiment to tackle unreliable horses winning in races

12 selections in 4 lots of 0.10 ew doubles and trebles

(A) 1.37 Don (No.13) 8/1, 4.25 Sal (No. 8 ) 7/2, 4.15 GP No. 6 4/1, 4.50 GP No. 8 9/2 = Doubles 23.32 Trebles 82.72

(E) 5.07 Don No.2 3/1, 5.42 Don No. 8 15/2, 1.55 GP No. 6 8/1, 2.30 GP No. 3 9/2 = Doubles 29.19 Trebles 114.97

(H) 4.32 Don No.4 3/1, 2.40 Sal No. 3 15/2, 3.05 GP No.7 9/2, 3.40 GP No 11 11/1 = Doubles 34.95 Trebles 146.53

(1) - (4) = 4.25 Sal No 8 7/2, 5.07 Don No 2 3/1, 4.32 Don No.4 3/1,  4.15 GP No 6 4/1 = Doubles 13.10 Trebles 35.05

The hardest working 8 points I have ever staked ?

I have had 1 pt to win on Zumurad at 13.00 to pay for it.  May come back later on a recovery mission if all goes pear-shaped

9 points staked in total for a fun-packed day's racing

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nothing so far but the top selections not run yet.

4.25 San Sea Gifted 2.5 pts win at 4.8 = poss profit of 9.31

Total stakes now 11.5

Haha, my 4th one in the top 4 Eighty Eight wins at 5/1 and I missed backing it.  Grrrrr.

4.32 Don Bicep 4 pts win at 4.7 for 14.50 profit

Last recovery bet

15.5 stakes in total

Made  a mistake Clipsham Gold is number 2 on my bets 4 so I have put 5.5 pts on at 3.9 = 15.63 profit if it wins

Total stakes 21.  Really annoyed that I missed Eighty Eight

Edited by The Equaliser
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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

240 salis 

Rose Barton 8.0 4.1 

Say if you will  7.3 10/1 

Keep hoping 7.3 23.0 

Top rated is a bit in front here  ....so I'll try 6pt win top rated ...1pt ew other 2 

1st and 2nd but say if won  ...disappointing run from fav really .... these races are helping a lot though ...really refining formulas ....I can really see patterns developing so will help in future selections

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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

A trial experiment to tackle unreliable horses winning in races

12 selections in 4 lots of 0.10 ew doubles and trebles

(A) 1.37 Don (No.13) 8/1, 4.25 Sal (No. 8 ) 7/2, 4.15 GP No. 6 4/1, 4.50 GP No. 8 9/2 = Doubles 23.32 Trebles 82.72

(E) 5.07 Don No.2 3/1, 5.42 Don No. 8 15/2, 1.55 GP No. 6 8/1, 2.30 GP No. 3 9/2 = Doubles 29.19 Trebles 114.97

(H) 4.32 Don No.4 3/1, 2.40 Sal No. 3 15/2, 3.05 GP No.7 9/2, 3.40 GP No 11 11/1 = Doubles 34.95 Trebles 146.53

(1) - (4) = 4.25 Sal No 8 7/2, 5.07 Don No 2 3/1, 4.32 Don No.4 3/1,  4.15 GP No 6 4/1 = Doubles 13.10 Trebles 35.05

The hardest working 8 points I have ever staked ?

I have had 1 pt to win on Zumurad at 13.00 to pay for it.  May come back later on a recovery mission if all goes pear-shaped

9 points staked in total for a fun-packed day's racing

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nothing so far but the top selections not run yet.

4.25 San Sea Gifted 2.5 pts win at 4.8 = poss profit of 9.31

Total stakes now 11.5

Haha, my 4th one in the top 4 Eighty Eight wins at 5/1 and I missed backing it.  Grrrrr.

4.32 Don Bicep 4 pts win at 4.7 for 14.50 profit

Last recovery bet

15.5 stakes in total

Made  a mistake Clipsham Gold is number 2 on my bets 4 so I have put 5.5 pts on at 3.9 = 15.63 profit if it wins

Total stakes 21.  Really annoyed that I missed Eighty Eight

RESULTS UPDATE

The bookies must have help from the one above.  I don't think that even Tim Easterby could have dreamt that blinkers would help The Grey Wolf sprout wings to beat Clipsham Gold.  Such is life. A couple of placed multiples produced 0.57 pts so a loss on the day of 20.43 pts.  My MTD is -57.98 & YTD -215.53

Undaunted, I will continue these type of bets throughout the rest of June.  I will pick up to 16 selections and back them in 0.10 ew doubles and trebles.  The top 4 (based upon the shortest prices, I will place in a seperate doubles and trebles bet.  I have considered doing this a 0.2 win bet instead but will have to see how this goes.  I will rarely accept odds of less than 5/2 for non handicaps and 7/2 for handicaps.  I will continue to place a recovery bet on each of the first four until a winner is found.  No winner after the top 4 then I will just write off the loss as I have done so today.

The idea behind all this is to experiment with getting myself away from backing favourites.  I am focussing on in form trainers over the past 14 days and those who have a good success rate at the track over the past 5 years.  I do wish I could get my hands on decent trainer stats.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

The bookies must have help from the one above.  I don't think that even Tim Easterby could have dreamt that blinkers would help The Grey Wolf sprout wings to beat Clipsham Gold.  Such is life. A couple of placed multiples produced 0.57 pts so a loss on the day of 20.43 pts.  My MTD is -57.98 & YTD -215.53

Undaunted, I will continue these type of bets throughout the rest of June.  I will pick up to 16 selections and back them in 0.10 ew doubles and trebles.  The top 4 (based upon the shortest prices, I will place in a seperate doubles and trebles bet.  I have considered doing this a 0.2 win bet instead but will have to see how this goes.  I will rarely accept odds of less than 5/2 for non handicaps and 7/2 for handicaps.  I will continue to place a recovery bet on each of the first four until a winner is found.  No winner after the top 4 then I will just write off the loss as I have done so today.

The idea behind all this is to experiment with getting myself away from backing favourites.  I am focussing on in form trainers over the past 14 days and those who have a good success rate at the track over the past 5 years.  I do wish I could get my hands on decent trainer stats.

 

 

go on race advisor trainer stats there for track

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11 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

go on race advisor trainer stats there for track

Many thanks.  I know this is Michael Wilding's outfit who seems to have more rabbit than Sainsbury's.  I re-connected with the web site, however, I can't reach the area for trainers stats at the track.  Can you help? Or do I have to sign up and pay a sub for the info?

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1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks.  I know this is Michael Wilding's outfit who seems to have more rabbit than Sainsbury's.  I re-connected with the web site, however, I can't reach the area for trainers stats at the track.  Can you help? Or do I have to sign up and pay a sub for the info?

i thougut on main page when u click race

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13 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

i thougut on main page when u click race

It gives the so-called strongest trainer and names a horse for the race but that's not what I'm looking for.

The smart stats on ATR are OK but not fullfilling either

Is there anywhere where that gives Trainers First time out winner stats? Also don't understand how to relate a rating in relation to the first time out runners. For example in the 2.30 at Lingfield Swift Lioness is unraced and favourite for Mark Johnstone. How good is he at First time out winners.  Bara Lacha is top timeform rated at 78 but how good is that opposed to the breeding of Swift Lioness?

 

 

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

It gives the so-called strongest trainer and names a horse for the race but that's not what I'm looking for.

The smart stats on ATR are OK but not fullfilling either

Is there anywhere where that gives Trainers First time out winner stats? Also don't understand how to relate a rating in relation to the first time out runners. For example in the 2.30 at Lingfield Swift Lioness is unraced and favourite for Mark Johnstone. How good is he at First time out winners.  Bara Lacha is top timeform rated at 78 but how good is that opposed to the breeding of Swift Lioness?

 

 

i could prob do it on system builder on inform. if i have time some point. what trainers u want.

Edited by Wildgarden
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2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Thanks but it looks to be a lot of work.  Someone out there must have all these stats at their finger tips

what about adrian massey. u can pick from trainer u want and first time out.  bloodlines  - sires are on flatstats but not dams

 

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On 6/12/2022 at 1:44 PM, richard-westwood said:

Typical ...yanifer won 

Funny how people view/do things differently, i always put in the biggest price and drop the smallest if i have a list of 4, unless all are decent prices then i include the lot for smaller stakes.

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15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Funny how people view/do things differently, i always put in the biggest price and drop the smallest if i have a list of 4, unless all are decent prices then i include the lot for smaller stakes.

I should have included it .....ground came right ..Good draw ...etc ....kicking myself ....shoukd have had smaller stakes and included this time but I've learnt a lot this week and it will help in the future ....so not a waste 

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